Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc Fallacy

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Subtype of non causa pro causa «non-cause for cause» or questionable cause fallacy (Taking as

a cause something that is not a cause).

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc – After this, therefore because of this

Normally shortened to “Post hoc fallacy”

A before B, therefore, A caused B.

Sibiling of “Cum hoc, ergo propter hoc”

Difference between them: time; Cum hoc -> simultaneously (leads to a possible reverse
causation), Post Hoc -> one after the other.

Premise of causality (happening before) but not prove of causality.

Post hoc is related to superstition:

e.g. I bought a new pair of football tennis and since then, we haven’t lost any game, they
are giving us luck.

I was sick, went to a wizard and he gave me a potion. Thanks to it I recovered.

Problem in science (determine the causality): Solved with a control group.

Many times, we are before a variation of this fallacy: the inflated causality.

Inflated causality:

A caused B is not completely untrue, but it is not true, because A, C, D, E, F, G… also


caused A and not B alone.

WWII happened because of the hatred of Hitler of the Jews

Unemployment rate decreased after policy A was implemented, A is the cause of the
decrease.

Mainly used in social sciences, where the problems are too complicated to try to
reduce them to the causality of just one action.

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