Monica Santamaria Helder Sousa Joa Femandes José Matos Reliability analysis of a post-tensioned railway bridge exposed to corrosion effects As bridges provide crossing at erica points such as waterways, valleys and oher type of physical obstacles, they ae invaluable a sols win a rail natwork. However, these infrastructures are ex- posed to several hazard of diferent natures that compromise their structural safety and ultimately lead to crtcal events, According to literature, tere are commonly five levels of assessment of safety wi increasing complexity per lvel, Love 1, consisting on an as- sessment based an parialcoeficients, isthe simplest one, whereas level 5 isthe most complex invalving a combination of non-inear analysis and probabilistic assessment, Within that scope, this paper analyses the svuctual safety ofa pro-stressed roinforced conrate railvay bridge located in Portugal, by using @ combination of linear las and probabilistic analysis procedures. The proposed framo- works adaptable and suitable for common safety analysis. The ob- tained reliabilty index is compared to threshold values given by di. ferent standards which validates thatthe bridge ensures the safety at ultimate limit stat, The robltylvels along time are also de- termined assuming a reduction inthe cross-section area ofthe stel reinforcement, resulting fom corrosion inition based on ons i spection evidences. From the analysis ofthis scenario overtime it may be concluded thatthe bridge under study exhibits sutcient load canying capacty during its planned service Ife even under the proposed damage. 1 Introduction Te increasing demands in aflic loads and trains speed as a result of economic growth and the need of improving produc- tivity for transportation have accelerated the deterioration of existing railway bridges that were not initially designed to endure those conditions. Moreover, poor maintenance ac~ tions facilitate deterioration mechanisms such as corrosion, \hich compromise the durability and capacity ofthe bridges Consequently, there is a need for assessing the structural safety and serviceability of existing bridges. Te procedures for assessment differ from the traditional pro- cedures from design codes. Therefore, several research pro- jects have been conducted to provide recommendations re Iated to assessment of existing bridges. The “Guideline for Load and Resistance Assessment of Existing European Rail ‘way Bridges” provides recommendations for applying meth- ‘ods, models and tools for assessing the load carrying capac~ ity, considering specific characteristics for railway bridges such as dynamic accelerations caused by passing trains and particular problems such as fatigue eracks [1]. The guideline presents different types and levels of assessment. The selec tion depends on the particular characteristics of the bridge and the desired level of refinement and detailing [2]. The most advanced level comprises refined non-linear finite ele- ‘ment method, fully probabilistic analysis, reliability-based assessment, testing and monitoring. However, mote simpli= Fied methods can be also applied to allow bridge evaluators their easy application while being sufficiently accurate to properly assess the safety and functionality of the bridge (2) Inthe present work, a linear elastic analysis is combined with 1 probabilistic approach to assess the ultimate strength of a posttensioned railway bridge. Linear elastic analysis is used since itis practical, allows to superimpase results from di ferent loads and is easy to determine eritical load positions and combinations [3]; while the probabilistic analysis ‘method is chosen considering that most factors involved in the evaluation ofthe load bearing capaeity, the applied loads and the factors influencing the deterioration process are not deterministic and cannot be accurately measured [4]; t fore, all the parameters should be defined as random varia- bles and reliability analysis should be performed to evaluate the structural safety (5) Finally, a set of damage scenarios are performed assuming a corrosion mechanism reducing the cross-section area of steel bars. The structural safety is verified under the proposed sit- vations and the time to reach the hypothetical condition is i> lustrated for the ease study to analyze its performance over the service lif, 2 Probabilistic safety assessment The safety level in this study was assessed in terms of a relic ability index f, defined as a funetion of the probability of failure. ‘The reliaility analysis was performed for the strength limit state function, where loads and resistance were treated as random variables. The general form of the limit state function is expressed as: g=R-0 o srlimit sate function, R = resistancs, Q= Toad effect. function gO, the structure is safe, i. the load bearing capacity of the assessed structre is higher than the effects (stresses or intemal forces) ofthe applied Toads if ¢ <0, the structure isnot safe {6} Therefor, the probability of fallore 81International Probabilistic Workshop 2019 P; is the probability thatthe limit state function reaches a negative value (7 Be (RQ <0) = P(g <0) @ Moreover, the reliaility index f is related to the probability of failure as @ -@->F, where $"j the inverse standard normal probability dist bution function. I is important to guarantee an acceptable level of reliability through the service life on a structure [5]. Therefore, the ob- tained reliability index will be compared against recom- mended safety indices in topie 3.3.1 3 Case study: Simées Railway Bridge 3.41 Description ‘The bridge studied herein spans the Arunea River and is lo- cated between Albergaria dos Doze-Alfarelos in the enter of Portugal. The bridge is part ofthe railway network inthe Re- gion of Santarém/Leirla and was built in 2005, The total Jength of the bridge is 66.63m and is divided ino four simply supported spans. The superstructure is composed by two beams of 1.35m high and 0.4m slab connecting both beams, to conform a “1 exoss section shape (see Figure 1 (a) in cach direction. » Fa Smtes pe Dac os satan Lateal vim, Sources eons ‘The bridge was analyzed for the critical clements, i. the simply supported beams conforming the superstructure ‘Therefore, the reliability of the beams was estimated to be representative of the reliability ofthe whole bridge, consid ring that the failure of the beams will cause the complete disruption ofthe bridge. 32 Uncertainty sources ‘The selection of the parameters to be considered as random variables (RVs) was performed considering previous ‘knowledge and engineering judgement. In the following sub- sections, the statistical characteristics of the chosen factors for the resistance and load model are specified. 4.24 Resistance model ‘The resistance isthe random variable thal represents the load ccamying capacity of the bridge, which is affected by uncer- tainties due to the variability in the strength ofthe materials, the dimensions and the analysis procedures [7]. ‘The flexural strength of the complete section ean be com= puted as: My = Anfndes + Aaah * Assan * Apa fo Apahradya ~ Asafades — 085 fib? * I at o where Aacdany comesponds to the total reinforcement sel positioned at level dai: Ap; yar corresponds to the total prestressed sel positioned at level dy fi tepresents the reinforcement scl strength athe parila ber: fy repre= sents the prestesing scl strength atthe pricular fiber; fon represents the mean conetete compressive strength 2 i he effective eight ofthe compression zone equivalent 0.8 for haratristie concrete strength less than SOMPa: and x cor responds othe neural axis depth (se Figure 2). Fg 2 Stones ard wane duscn ine cos sion Applying static equilibrium in the complete seetion (come pression force equals tension force) the neutral axis depth is ‘ound, Assuming the flexural strength of the beam is reached ‘when the strain in the extreme compression fiber reaches the maximum compressive strain (€,,~0.0035), the strains in the reinforeing and presiressing steel can be computed from a linear stain distribution by straight line proportion: 82International Probabilistic Workshop 2019 esl) 5 ‘autgen ° ‘Tae results fFom the calculation indicate that not al the tene sion stee! has yielded because they do nol exceed the yield strain (¢5=0.0028; &,=0.01). Therefore, the resisting bend ing moment is complited with the actual stess in each fiber and calculated as: Son = Estat: fos = Epo © aased on the required parameters to estimate the lexural ca pacity, the random variables selected for the resistance model are presented in Table | with their corresponding probabilis- tie values. As shown in that table, all the random variables were assumed to have a normal distribution, The mean value and the coefficient of variance (CoV) were defined mainly according to the probabilistic model code fom the Joint Commitee on Structural Safety (JCSS) [8] and from stati cal analysis performed by Wisniewski eral. (9] based on ex- perimental tests of materials produced in Portugal during the year 2000 and 2001. It should be noted thatthe depth of the ‘neutral axis is also assumed asa random variable. The expla- nation relies inthe fact that xis @ function ofall the random variables. Therefore, a set of 10000 values of the RVs were generated using Latin Hypercube sampling method, then the neutral axis depth is ealeulated for each pair of values, and subsequently a normal distribution is fited to determine its ‘mean and coefficient of variance which are indieated in the Table 1 (Figure 3), Fe 3Normal este so erat dep Finally, the flexural strength ofthe section is expressed as Me = (1.22 004495, +f (@0097Ay + 000374) + "Fl (@0049Ay, + 0.0026A4:) — 8000244, + 0.008642) + scone, 2 00%44g) ead fae Wem) romfitinm | detroit wkd Fg Lond Mod aay tle basin cre paso 10) 3.22 Load model ‘The acting bending moment in the analyzed section results| from the effect ofthe structure self weight, additional perma nent loads and the railway trafic loads. Dead loads are as- sumed to follow a normal distribution with a CoV = 0.10 due to the variability in the dimensions and the concrete, ballast and track components specific weight. Railway trafic loads are obtained from the Load Model 71 according to EN 1991- 2 [10]. LMT is composed by 4 axle loads with a character+ istic value of 250kN and spaced 1,60 m from each other, and ‘wo distributed loads of 80kN/m spaced 0.80 m from the axle Toads (sce Figure 4). The characteristic values correspond to the 98-th percentile of the PDF of the railway load assuming normal distribution [3]. Therefore, the mean value for the axle loads (207K) and distributed load (63.4kNim) were ap plied in the most critical postion of the beam to oblain the ‘maximum beading moment Additionally, a dynamic factor is considered to account for the dynamic magnification of stresses and vibration effects in the structure due to the railway moving loads, The dynamic factor is a deterministic value calculated according to the cequation 6.5 ofthe EN 1991-2 (10) Finally the acting bending moment is expressed as: Mg = 21.580 + 9Wi, + 147, (R87. @ “Tel Probie pramaars of Rs fo resistance model Parameter Meanvatie OVX) _Disttbuton Conese compressive 43 Pa 10 Namal ‘sooth Feircaratyelé $60 (MP3 54 Noma ‘reat, Reins stoatyourg —_200(6a 2 Normal modus Pressing sea 105163) 2 Nara yung reds) Sel area) Nomanaiom) = 2 Namal Nowra ope) 070) 58 Noma Model unostantin0) 12 18 Lagoa 83International Probabilistic Workshop 2019 ble 2 Steal paras to random vise h ad model Tele Taglar una tia Paramatar Mean CoV Dietrbton oH Slkwogterdetond 1507 Nn] 10 Normal seactea () Rata aed) 634 HN) 10 Neral aay ticles A) ABN) 10 Nema Dyan aca (a) Oaemnste 3.3 Reliability evaluation Combining the expression ftom Ea. (7) with Ba (8), the wal limit tate equation is defined as 9= [13244 ~ 0004. f+ (00037 + 0001740)+ "hy (00048Ay, + 0.00264,;) —B,(00024A,y + 0003644) 4 0018Ayy + 1003545) ~ 0.35%2000% gs?) 10-9 — a1sat, 4907 +140) o Te defined limit state function is computed using the rst order reliability method (FORM). The obtained results indi cate a reli bility off y index of f = 5.11 corresponding to a proba- are of P; = 1.60910" 33.1 Acceptance criteria ‘Tae obtained reliability index of the bridge is compared to target values. The selection of Braager forassessment should bbe made given the characteristics ofthe bridge under evalua- tion [2]. Different guidelines and codes present recom- mended values to be used in the design and assessment of bridges. Herein, only the target sefety indices specified for assessment of existing bridges rather than for design of new bridges are considered asthe target values, since the relative ‘marginal cost for inereasing the capacity of the former is higher than forthe latter [11]. Table 3 presents the target re liability levels retrieved fom the JCSS publication [11] and the standard ISO 13822, forthe ultimate limit tate and nor- mal relative costs of safely measures, Note that the relat reference period differs for cach reference, (Once the reliability index obtained is greater than the target values specified by both guidelines, it can be stated that the Simoes bridge verifies the safety at ultimate limit state Target fait inns Consequence of fallre sess] Bo tszz=|12) Venton - 2 ow a a Mesum a Fa Hon “ 43 a ear tnd pared sly. 0 yrs 4 Damage scenarios As previously mentioned, the bridge was built on 2005. Since that date four inspections have been done and some minor ‘maintenance actions have been performed. The last inspec tion on 2016 reported some eracking on the deck with water infilvation. Even though the extent of the damage is small and does not compromise the structural safely on a short term, herein a failure scenario assumes that no maintenance ‘will be performed ina long-term and therefore the defect will lead to corrosion initiation. Consequently, a uniform redue- tion of the reinforcing cross-section area is assumed. Since the pre-stessing tendons have a tieker concrete cover (160mm) than the ordinary reinforcing steel (30mm), corro- sion in the formers is not governed by carbonation or chloride penetration through the concrete cover [3]. Henee, only the bottom reinforcing rebar is assumed to be subjected to coro tay de los ofrevrangeossecton ae Fe Vtiion nh rely rdx dv tw consion [As it can be observed from Pigure 5, the reduction in the cross-section area of the reinforcement causes a significant reduction in the load-bearing capacity of the bridge, reaching reliability indices values below of some specific limits shown, in Table 3 84International Probabilistic Workshop 2019 Inder evaluate the time it will take the loss of reinforcing area to reach a percentage that brings the reliability index un- er the limits, the eross-seetion a ime aler corrosion initi= ation can be computed according 10 [5] as: 4c = 282, ~ ewan fcorr(®)) (10) ‘Where is the number af rebar, Dp isthe intial diameter and iore() isthe corosion rate, Equation (10) is applied as- suming the fone charge 2 = 2 ‘The corrosion rate is governed by the availability of water and oxygen a the steel surface, being a function of concrete {quality and cover [13]; it is reduced with time due tothe for- mation of rust products on the steel surface and can be exe pressed empirically according to Vu and Stewart [13] as: corr (tp) = kcorr(ta) 0.85 6570 [yA fern] ay et fom) corto) «2 Where fre (ta) is the corrosion rate a the start of corrosion propagation, is time since corrosion initiation, Ty is the av rage temperature in Kelvin, RH is the average relative hus rmidity, w/c is the water-cement ratio and the conerete cover is given in em. The information regarding the average tempe> rature and relative humidity was collected from a metereolo- gical station in the Coimbra region where the case study is located, which information is availabe forthe general public trough the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (PMA) [14]. Based on the obtained data and estimating a w/c rato of 0.5, the reduction in the eross section area after the time of corrosion initiation can be observed in Figure 6. Fe 6 Vata nib rtronent reaver tine From Figure 5 it can be stated that only a loss of more than 40% of the siel crossesection area decreases the reliability indices below the target values. Likewise, from Figure 6 it can be inferred that a reduction of that percentage is reached alter 65 years 5 Conclusions “The safety assessment of a Portuguese railway bridge is pre sented based on linear elastic and probabilistic analysis pro- cedures. The obtained reliability index is compared to thresh- ‘old values given by different standards which validates that the bridge ensures the safety at ultimate limit state. Further- more, a theoretical damage is introduced in the resistance ‘model as a reduction in the cross-section area of the stel r= inforcement, presumably as a result of corrosion initiation From the analysis ofthis scenario over time, it may be con= cluded that the bridge under study exhibits sufficient load canying capacity during its planned service life even under the proposed damage. ‘The type of analysis herein performed is important to assess the structural safety and determine without maintenance ac- tions how the load-carying capacity could be affected in a plified probabilistic approach; thus, bridge evaluators ‘could apply the same methodology’to determine future inter- ventions siategies. However, the assumption of linear elastic response does not represent accurately the behavior of con- crete structures, which after the cracking and yielding of the rwinforcement undergoes plastic redistribution of forces. Therefore, for evaluation of existing bridges with complex interaction between bridge elements where i difficult to pre- lot the failure behavior, or when the structure is already un er great deterioration, nonlinear analysis methods would be the most appropriate altemative to evaluate the performance and its remaining service life Acknowledgments Te third author would like to thank FCT ~ Portuguese Scix cnlifie Foundation forthe research grant PD/BD/128015/2016 under the PhD program “Innovation in Railway System and Technologies- iRail” Tis work was partly financed by FEDER funds through the (Compettivity Factors Operational Programme - COMPETE, and by national funds through FCT Foundation for Science and Technology within the scope of the project POCI-O1- (0145-FEDER-007633. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under ‘grant agreement No769255, The sole responsibility for the ‘content ofthis publication lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Union. Nefe ther the Innovation and Networks Executive Agency (INEA) nor the European Commission are responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein, Bibliography 85International Probabilistic Workshop 2019 a 2 io} 51 io a (a) (91 10) JENSEN, JENS $ | CASAS, JOAN R ; KAROUM RAID 5 LOS, MARIO ; CREMONA, CHRISTIAN ; MELBOURNE, ‘Civ: Guideline for load and resistance assessment of existing European railway bridges. Ia: Fourth International Conference on Bridge Maintenance, ‘Safety and Management (ABMAS 08), 2008, S. pp-= 3658 ‘Casas, JOAN RAMON ; WISNIEWSKI, DAWID: Safety requirements and probabilistic models of resistance in the assessment of existing railway bridges. 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URL. hups!/portaldoctima.pi/en. « abgerufen am 2019-06 02 14] Authors PhD candidate Monica Santamaria ISISE, Institute of Science and Innovation for Bic-Sustaina- bility (B-S) Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minho ‘Campus de Azurém, 4800-058 Guimardes, Portugal id8021@alunos.uminho.pt Dr, Hélder Sousa ISISE, Institute of Science and Innovation for Bio-Sustaina- bility GBS) Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minho ‘Campus de Azurém, 4800-058 Guimaries, Portugal sousahms@gmail.com PhD candidate Jodo Fernandes ISISE, Institute of Seience and Innovation for Bio-Sust bility CB-S) Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minho ‘Campus de Azurém, 4800-058 Guimardes, Portugal id5709@alunos.uminho.pt Assistant Professor Dr. José Matos ISISE, Institute of Science and Innovation for Bio-Sustaina- bility UB-S) Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minho ‘Campus de Azurém, 4800-058 Guimardes, Portugal {imatos@civiluminho.pt 86