Journal of Coastal Research SI 81 40-49 Coconut Creek, Florida 2018

Soft-Cliff Retreat in a Tropical Coast: The Minuto de Dios Sector,

Caribbean Coast of Colombia
Juan F. Paniagua-Arroyave§‡*, Iván D. Correa‡, Giorgio Anfuso††‡, and Peter N. Adams§
§ ‡ ††
Department of Geological Sciences Área de Ciencias del Mar Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra
University of Florida Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra Universidad de Cádiz www.cerf-jcr.org
Gainesville, FL 32611, U.S.A Universidad EAFIT Puerto Real, Cádiz, España
Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia

ABSTRACT

Paniagua-Arroyave, J.F.; Correa, I.D.; Anfuso, G., and Adams, P.N., 2018. Soft-cliff retreat in a tropical coast: The
Minuto de Dios sector, Caribbean coast of Colombia. In: Almar, R.; Almeida, L.P.; Trung Viet, N., and Sall, M.
(eds.), Tropical Coastal and Estuarine Dynamics. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 81, pp 40–49.
Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208
www.JCRonline.org Projections for the year 2100 predict a global mean sea level ~1 m above pre-industrial levels that will likely
exacerbate coastal impacts worldwide and especially along vulnerable coastlines of developing countries. Recent
studies have predicted a future shoreline retreat linked to the expected acceleration in global sea level rise along the
soft-cliffs of Minuto de Dios on the Caribbean coast of Colombia. This study discusses previous results by arguing
that an accurate quantification of relative sea level rise was not implemented and cliff retreat predictions are therefore
not feasible. Future cliff-top positions and future sediment release were instead calculated by assuming that the
historical retreat rate will remain unchanged. Mean end-point retreat between 1938 and 2010 was 1.7±0.4 m/year,
which would produce between 2010 and 2060 a shoreline recession of 85 m with a cumulative release of ~530,000
m3 of sediment (for a ~ 1 km of ~ 6 m cliffs). The projected coastal retreat is expected to produce significant impacts
to local infrastructure, including the loss of approximately 100 urban constructions. In addition, the 20 60 coastline
would be located ca. 50 m from the main road that connects Arboletes with the city of Montería. As discussed in this
study, climate change-driven sea level rise will likely augment coastal hazards, but with limited data in the region,
predictive modeling of future impacts remains speculative. This issue highlights the need for local stakeholders to
dedicate resources to further observations. Such efforts will improve predictions, helping inform policy makers to
implement successful local coastal management solutions.

ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Global climate change, coastal erosion, cliff retreat, mud diapirism, coastal
management, geomorphological modeling, DSAS.

INTRODUCTION maintains the attention of coastal communities worldwide

Accurate quantification of coastal hazards is a critical goal
considering predicted future sea level rise due to global climate
change. The most drastic, current predictions have proposed a
mean sea level (MSL) ~ 1 m above pre-industrial levels by 2100
(Church et al., 2013). Although likely to exceed such levels
regionally, due to variations in the Earth’s gravitational field and
continental sediment production (Dalca et al., 2013), even a 1 m
scenario would imply dramatic impacts in present coastal zones
worldwide.
Additional coastal hazards associated with elevated sea level
include saltwater intrusion into aquifers (Werner et al., 2013),
habitat modifications (Gilman et al., 2008; Short et al., 2016),
intensification of flooding during calm periods (Ruvin et al.,
2014) as well as during storms (Hunt and Watkiss, 2011; Yao et
al., 2017), decadal oscillations in climatic (Barnard et al., 2015),
and morphological changes (Passeri et al., 2015; Ranasinghe,
2016). Indeed, the global climate-change related coastal hazards
____________________
DOI: 10.2112/SI81-006.1 received 10 August 2017; accepted in
revision 27 November 2017.
*Corresponding author: jf.paniagua@ufl.edu
©
Coastal Education and Research Foundation, Inc. 2018
(Oppenheimer et al., 2014) and poses challenges to Earth
scientists in many disciplines (FitzGerald et al., 2008; Gornitz,
1991; Pelletier et al., 2015).
With ~ 10% of the global population living in areas below 10
m of elevation (Crowell et al., 2013; Lichter et al., 2011), one of
the scientific challenges lies in assessing and projecting
coastline migration. Modeling has improved shoreline change
forecasts over recent decades (Bruun, 1983; Bray and Hooke,
1997; Dean, 1991; Larson, Hanson, and Kraus, 1987; Walkden
and Hall, 2005), even where these approaches have been
criticized for their oversimplification of morphological
responses (Cooper and Pilkey, 2004a, b; Pilkey et al., 1993).
Despite these shortcomings, the use of simple models has
provided important insights about the complexity in coastal
geomorphic systems, like the sandy coastline responses to
natural and human dynamics (Lazarus et al., 2016; Thomas et
al., 2016), and proved to predict future cliff-top positions with
relatively good accuracy (Brooks and Spencer, 2012).
Modeling seacliff morphodynamics requires an accurate
representation of the feedbacks that link morphological response
to marine and subaerial processes. Soft cliffs are considered
type-A shore platforms and their evolution depends on the
interrelationship between wave and rock forces.
 Soft-Cliff Retreat in a Tropical Coast 41
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Figure 1. Study area showing the location of the Minuto de Dios sector in the context of South America (A) and the northern South America (B). Red
rectangles in A and B highlight the location of the southeast Caribbean and Arboletes town, respectively. Map in C shows some of the geologic and
geomorphic features of the Arboletes littoral as well as mapped shoreline positions in 1938 and 2009.

Wave processes are influenced by changes in water level due
to tides, storms, decadal oscillations, and trends in relative sea
level, as well as by beach deposits; rock resisting force depends
upon rock mechanical strength and discontinuities within the
rock mass (Sunamura, 1992). Physical modeling of soft cliffs
should also include the influence of assailing forces in rock
strength. These relationships include rock degradation by wave-
induced cliff shaking and flexing (e.g., Adams, Storlazzi, and
Anderson, 2005; Young et al., 2012) and wave transformation
by (often) cliff retreat-related beach deposits (e.g., Adams et al.,
2007; Limber et al., 2014). These processes are all governed by
complex morphodynamic feedbacks (e.g., Adams, Storlazzi, and
Anderson, 2005; Kline, Adams, and Limber, 2014; Sunamura,
1977).
The soft-cliffs of the tropical and tectonically-active Minuto
de Dios sector (town of Arboletes), located in the Caribbean
coast of Colombia, provide a natural laboratory to test ideas
about cliff retreat mechanics. Previous research provided semi-
quantitative retreat rates (e.g., Correa and Vernette, 2004) and
predictions of coastline positions for an acceleration in global
MSL (Paniagua-Arroyave, 2013). The present study reports on
the historical retreat and the projections of the current retreat
rates several decades in the future. This work also discusses the
intricacies of relative sea level calculations that were included in
previous research of shoreline predictions.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Study Site
The Minuto de Dios sector is located near the municipality of
Arboletes, between Antioquia and Cordoba departments, along
the Caribbean coast of Colombia (Figure 1). Its littoral fringe
includes ~1 km of soft cliffs (compression strength < 5 MPa)
that are composed of weathered and fractured sedimentary
rocks, dominantly shales and mudstones with occasional
conglomerates and conglomeratic sand lenses (Correa and
Paniagua-Arroyave, 2016).
Minuto de Dios cliffs are part of the Sinu accretionary wedge
that is formed by turbiditic sedimentary rocks ~7 km thick from
hemipelagic and terrigenous sediments deposited during
Oligocene through Pliocene time. Interactions among the Nazca,
Caribbean, and South American tectonic plates, offshore and
onshore mud diapirs, volcanoes and flows, and possible hydro-
isostastic balances have raised and exposed these sedimentary
deposits subjecting them to marine and subaerial processes since
the late Holocene (Correa, Prüssmann-Uribe, and Garrido-
Escobar, 2016; Correa and Morton, 2010; Duque-Caro, 1984;
Vinnels et al., 2010).
Understanding emerged marine terrace history requires
knowledge of the relative sea level history, as well as of
processes responsible for its formation (Figure 2). These
processes remain poorly understood along the Southern
Caribbean coast. Pioneering work (Page, 1982) calculated a Late
Holocene uplift rate near Minuto de Dios of ~3.7 mm/year and
therefore called these planar surfaces “emerged marine terraces”
(Figure 3). Similar values ~ 3 mm/year found near Cartagena
may offer corroboratory evidence for regional, neotectonic uplift
in the Southern Caribbean (Martínez et al., 2010). However, the
erosional trend in coastline migration that contradicts the
expected terrains gaining due to terrace uplift, as well as the
complexity in relative sea level history suggests further study is
needed (Correa and Vernette, 2004; Gonzalez, 2017; Rangel-
Buitrago, Anfuso, and Williams, 2015).

Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 81, 2018

42 Paniagua-Arroyave et al.
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Figure 2. In situ landmark comparison suggests recent acceleration in the
cliff retreat at Minuto de Dios. Numerous stacks and caves highlight the
soft cliffs advanced erosional stage linked to various cliff-retreat
processes (A and B). Locations of urban constructions in 2012 and 2015
(D) provide an approximate coastline retreat of ~3 m/year (C). Photos by
Iván D. Correa (A, B, and C, May 2012) and Juan F. Paniagua-Arroyave
(D, July 2015).
Historical (i.e. last century) relative sea level behavior within
the southern Caribbean has been estimated from tide gauge
records at Cartagena, Colombia (~150 km away from Minuto de
Dios) and Cristobal, Panama (~250 km away). Both gauges
recorded statistically significant sea level rise rates of +0.67
mm/yr between 1907 and 1997 in Cristobal and +4.53 mm/yr
between 1951 and 2000 in Cartagena (Andrade, 2008). This sea
level rise rate at Cartagena implies that terraces are currently
submerging.
Tides in this region are microtidal mixed with maximum
ranges ~0.92 m and a mean ~0.5 m. Wave climate is dominated
by Trade winds coming from the north and northeast during the
dry season (typically from December to April), and from the
south during the wet season. Mean significant wave heights
range from ~0.5 to ~1.6 m. Comparing the relative tidal and
wave ranges, it is considered that wave processes dominate in
the littoral zones of Antioquia (Osorio et al., 2016; Thomas et
al., 2007).
Historical Coastline Mapping Considerations
Aerial photographs and photo-mosaics from 1938 and 2009
were used to quantify the end-point change in coastline position.
Coastline migration was compared to existing studies and other
field-derived data were collected including nearshore acoustic
profiling surveys (obtained by means of a dual frequency
echosounder), soft-cliffs general geotechnical characterization,
and a detailed coastal structures inventory (Correa, Alcántara-
Carrió, and González, 2005; Correa and Vernette, 2004; Rangel-
Buitrago, Anfuso, and Williams, 2015; Restrepo-Correa, Ojeda,
and Correa, 2007).
Two datasets were used to quantify the coastline migration at
Minuto de Dios: (1) a registered mosaic based on aerial photos
taken in 1938 (Hoyos, Acosta, and Correa, 2006); (ii) an
orthophoto-mosaic of 2009 (Prüssmann-Uribe, 2012). Imagery
was compared to a map from the 18th century (Domínguez,
Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 81, 2018
Salcedo, and Martín-Merás, 2012) to verify that regional plan-
view physiography matched historical imagery, and to more
recent aerial photos in order to assess historical coastline retreat
rates (Figures 3 and 4). In these documents, the stable vegetation
line was considered as the coastline proxy, which in turn
coincides with the cliff-top shoreline position (Boak and Turner,
2005).
Total errors in shoreline mapping were quantified from photo
measurement uncertainties, i.e. onscreen delineation/digitizing
and rectification uncertainties after the correction of image and
object spaces related distortions (Fletcher et al., 2003; Genz et
al., 2007; Moore, 2000). In this case, positional uncertainties
linked to tidal stage and seasonal variability were not considered
given that the vegetation line does not experience any seasonal
change or migration linked to tidal motions. In addition, the
effects of seasonal variation and the influence of individual
storms on shoreline change have limited importance because of
the long time span being considered (Dolan, Fenster, and
Holme, 1991). Overall, our uncertainties were 8.1 and 3.2 m for
the imagery of 1938 and 2010, respectively (Genz et al., 2007).
Quantification of Historical Retreat and Projection of
Future Cliff-top Positions
Coastline mapping was performed in ArcMap® through
digitization using the Magna Colombia Oeste Projected
Coordinate System. Digitized shorelines were compared using
the Digital Shoreline Analysis System software (DSAS, Thieler
et al., 2009) using the end-point rate (EPR) methodology with
transects separated by 10 m alongshore. Future cliff top
positions were projected by following the procedure outlined by
Brooks and Spencer (2012). These authors projected the
shoreline along the transects used for historical retreat
calculation. We assumed the historical rate will remain constant
during the next 50 years (regarded as a typical infrastructure
lifespan). Future coordinates along each transect were calculated
from the computed retreat distance, 𝐷 = 𝑅 × ∆𝑡, with ∆𝑡 = 50
years, along transects’ azimuth angle (Figure 5).
The sediment volume to be released was quantified by
projecting the 2010 and 2060 coastlines onto a Light Detection
And Ranging (LiDAR) derived digital elevation model (DEM)
(Brooks and Spencer, 2012). The volume was computed for the
polygon created for shorelines of 2010 and 2060, and the DEM
from elevation data in the ArcMap® ‘Polygon Volume’ option
using the ‘3D Analyst Tools’ toolbox.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Figure 6 shows the retreat rates and the projected 2060
coastline position in the context of historical and recent imagery,
as well as the cliff-top (alongshore) profiles derived from the
2010 DEM. The mean end-point coastline retreat at Minuto de
Dios between 1938 and 2010 was 1.7±0.4 m/year. This value, if
remains approximately constant, will imply a mean coastline
retreat distance between 2010 and 2060 of 85±35 m with major
impacts to current infrastructure.
Future impacts might include the partial loss of the Medellin–
Monteria road close to the town of Arboletes (~3 km of road
length) and ~100 km of Minuto de Dios’ households. Further, a
semi-quantitative estimate of coastline retreat based on
comparisons to in-situ landmarks and the 2014 imagery may
 Soft-Cliff Retreat in a Tropical Coast 43
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Figure 3. Time series of anomalies in mean sea level near the Minuto de Dios region (A) as measured by satellite altimeters at 9°N, 77°W (red star in
B) every 10 days (Nerem et al., 2010; data available online at http://sealevel.colorado.edu/). Measurements were subdivided into two temporal groups:
from 1993 to 2010 (rise rate of 2.3 mm/year, slope of blue line), and between 2010 and 2015 (rate 6.5 mm/yr, slope of black line). (C) Location of
Minuto de Dios in the context of the regional, alongshore elevation profile. The emerged terrace tread along the line a-a’ shows elevation difference
due to neo-tectonics and mud diapirism, as proposed by Page (1982). Numbers in italic represent uplift rates (in mm/year), whereas non-italic numbers
provide approximate terrace height above the high-water mark. Notice the arrow marking the location of the 1 km stretch of coast at Minuto de Dios, at
which uplift rates remain speculative.

indicate localized rates of ~3 m/year. This acceleration in cliff
retreat coincided with (and may be related to) an acceleration of
sea level rise between 2010 and 2014 (Figure 3A) and with the
construction of several groins that may have triggered sediment
“starvation” down-drift (Figure 4). This sand starvation could
either increase retreat rates by reducing the beach protection at
cliff bases or reduce erosional trends by limiting sediment
available for abrasion (e.g., Sunamura, 2015; Figure 7).
Coastline migration projections are of great value for coastal
management because they can help identify the littoral fringe
zone based on erosional hazard. These zones depend on the
relationship between prediction window and life-span of
structures, their use (e.g., infrastructure, habitation, or services),
and relocation potential (Dean and Dalrymple, 2004).
Considering the predicted coastline positions along Minuto de
Dios and the landward physiography of the emerged marine
terrace, which is tens of meters to kilometres wide (Correa and
Vernette, 2004), relocation of high-risk sites could be proposed
based on results presented herein.
Evidence of Neo-tectonics and Mud Diapirism
Comparison of 2010 and 2060 cliff-top elevations may
provide evidence regarding local tectonic processes (Figure 6).
Alongshore cliff-top profiles reveal a northward-oriented slope
~ × − , whereas predicted profiles of 2060 are vertically
offset ~1.5 m compared to 2010 profile. This offset suggests a
seaward-directed inclination of the terrain with a slope ~ 4 ×
−
. This alongshore slope may be related to rock deformation
produced by the Arboletes mud volcano located ~2 km south of
Minuto de Dios (Figures 1 and 2).
Rock deformation produced by processes driving marine
terrace emergence (i.e. neo-tectonics, mud diapirism and
volcanism), and hydro-isostatic compensation, may have
enhanced physical and chemical weathering, and reduced rock
strength to values between 0.07 and 0.5 MPa. This strength
reduction has been further enhanced by desiccation, organisms,
and lack of waste and rain water infrastructure. The relatively
low compressive strength has increased the relative prominence
of subaerial processes, making cliffs prone to mass wasting.

Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 81, 2018

44 Paniagua-Arroyave et al.
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Figure 4. The physiography of Minuto de Dios coastline shows evidence of human-related retreat. Historical cartography and aerial photos show Punta
Rey peninsula in 1789 (Domínguez, Salcedo, and Martín-Merás, 2012) (A) and 1938 (B) that disappeared entirely by 2009 (Prüssmann-Uribe, 2012)
(C). Aerial view of the Minuto de Dios in 2009 (zoom in to aerial photo in C) is characterized by irregular, erosional contours (D) that were altered by
human interventions in 2014 (E). Aerial photos of 1938, 2009, and 2014 were taken by the Instituto Geográfico Agustín Codazzi, Aeroestudios, and
Registro Aéreo Digital, respectively.

It is conceivable that, even in the hypothetical absence of

Figure 5. Coastlines of 2060 were projected along transect 𝑖, by
combining 2010 position 𝑖 , 𝑖 , future retreat rate 𝑅 (assumed to
be equal to 𝑅 ), temporal spans ∆𝑡 = 72 and ∆𝑡 = 50 years, and
transect azimuth angle 𝛼𝑖 (e.g., Brooks and Spencer, 2012). Past retreat
rates were quantified using DSAS in ArcMap® (Thieler et al., 2009).
wave action, the soft-cliffs along Minuto de Dios and adjacent
locations would continue eroding (Correa et al., 2007;
Sunamura, 2015). Monitoring marine (wave energy) and
subaerial (underground water) processes responsible for Minuto
de Dios cliff retreat would shed light onto solutions to the
current erosional tendency.
Soft-cliff Retreat Rates in the Context of Other Studies
Retreat rates at Minuto de Dios are comparable to values
derived at other locations. In the UK, Brooks and Spencer
(2012) compared historical maps of 1883 and aerial photograms
of 1947 in order to assess the performance of several simple
mathematical models that predict cliff retreat using 2008
positions. From the models examined, the Soft Cliff and
Platform Erosion (SCAPE) equation outperformed all others,
with a mean error between 15 and 36 m. The simple SCAPE
method was then used to predict cliff-top coastlines in 2050 and
2095 for a sea level rise scenario of 4 mm/year. Mean predicted
area losses were 150 ha with coastline retreat distances between
140 and 250 m (Brooks and Spencer, 2012).
Similarly, for a sea level rise of 5.7 mm/year retreat increases
by 10% (170 ha). Coastline retreat for 2095 under the 4.7
mm/year scenario was expected to be between 300 and 600 m.

Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 81, 2018

 Soft-Cliff Retreat in a Tropical Coast 45
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Figure 6. Coastline of 2010 was projected to 2060 using End-Point-Rate (EPR) historical values between 1938 and 2010 (A). Predicted coastline was
drawn on top of available aerial imagery to assess possible infrastructure losses (B). Notice urban constructions in Figure 2 C and D (magenta C and D
letters) that indicate the erosional acceleration and imply underprediction of future coastline retreat. Elevations of cliff-top positions relative to the
northernmost location (C) show a southward-oriented positive gradient on terrace’s surface that may represent the deformation due to mud diapirism.

Considering a 6.7 mm/year rate of sea level rise, retreat
increases by 20% (460 ha). Long-term retreat rates at Suffolk
ranged from 2 to 4.4 m/year (3.16 m/year between 1947 and
1981; 5.10 m/year between 1981 and 1992). Future retreat rates
on the same order of magnitude were quantified for Minuto de
Dios and other locations in the Antioquia region for several SLR
scenarios (Paniagua-Arroyave, 2013).
The SCAPE-equation methodology was also used to predict
soft-cliff positions at Accra, Ghana, 250 years into the future
(Addo, Walkden, and Mills, 2008). Accelerations in cliff-top
retreat from 0.13 to 0.23, and from 0.71 to 1.22 m/year are
proposed for MSL rise scenarios between 2 and 6 mm/year. This
prediction was performed for sectors without historical
information, like the Caribbean coast of Colombia. These results
were also proposed even before the publishing of theoretical
reviews of the equation (Ashton, Walkden, and Dickson, 2011)
or validations with field data (Brooks and Spencer, 2012).
Although the conceptual validity and the potential application to

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46 Paniagua-Arroyave et al.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
sectors with little information are highlighted, its application in
coastal management requires input data with long temporal
window, as in the study by Brooks and Spencer (2012), to
calculate uncertainties and validate the application to a particular
site (Leatherman and Crowell, 1997).
To increase the temporal window in coastline migration
studies, historical maps and charts may be used if there is
sufficient information to minimize cartographic errors (Brooks
and Spencer, 2012; Moore, 2000). For the Antioquia coast, it is
not advisable to compare historical maps with recent aerial
photos via Geographical Information Systems (GIS) techniques,
given the unknown uncertainty of historical map-derived
coastline positions. Nevertheless, it is possible to observe overall
variations in coastline configuration, e.g., the presence of Punta
Arboletes in a map from the 17th century (Domínguez, Salcedo,
and Martín-Merás, 2012) and aerial photos of 1938, 1953, and
1962 (Correa et al., 2007). In fact, available historical
information suggests that decadal variability in coastline
migration is associated to human influences during the
Anthropocene rather than to natural processes (Correa and
Morton, 2010; Correa and Vernette, 2004; Rangel-Buitrago,
Anfuso, and Williams, 2015).
Soft-cliff Retreat Projection in Littorals with Little
Information
Reduced-complexity models can be used to predict soft-cliff
retreat due to changes in erosive agents (specially sea level rise),
but their application must be considered with caution. Simple
geomorphic models have been typically used to understand
connections among processes and trends in landform evolution
(Murray, 2007). In the case of Minuto de Dios, there are
predictions of cliff retreat under sea level rise scenarios based on
simplified modeling (e.g., Paniagua-Arroyave, 2013), although
sea level rise projections there are still elusive.
Although SLR acceleration will modify the effects of littoral
processes, the consequences of which are already observable
(FitzGerald et al., 2008; Passeri et al., 2015), the complexity in
coastal morphodynamics may hinder our predictive capabilities
even using quantitavely robust models (Thieler et al., 2000).
Several authors have suggested it is unlikely that we can model
coastal morphodynamics successfully, advocating instead for
qualitative approaches in coastal forecasting (Cooper and Pilkey,
2004c; Jackson, Cooper, and del Rio, 2005). Future cliff-top
changes might therefore be inferred from studies of coastal
response during the Holocene transgression (Hurst et al., 2016;
Woodroffe and Murray-Wallace, 2012).
Studies of coastline retreat and local stratigraphy in the
Minuto de Dios area suggest that Late Holocene tectonic
adjustments to relative sea level rise exert control on soft-cliff
dynamics (Correa and Vernette, 2004; Martínez et al., 2010;
Rangel-Buitrago, Anfuso, and Williams, 2015). Although the
role of neo-tectonics in post-glacial evolution of the coastal
Caribbean remains speculative, there is evidence of sea level
history to result from the combination of neo-tectonic activity
and hydro-isostatic compensations. For example, bio-
stratigraphic analyses at Minuto de Dios have found 3.8
mm/year of uplift since 5 ka, with 0.7 mm/year attributable to
hydro-isostatic vertical compensation (Page, 1982). The
question about episodic retreat mechanisms, however, remains
Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 81, 2018
unanswered. Specifically, quantification of feedbacks among
eroding and resisting forces at the cliff face and shore platform
will be addressed in future studies.
CONCLUSION
We quantified a soft-cliff retreat between 1938 and 2010
along the Minuto de Dios sector (Caribbean coast of Colombia)
of ~1.7 m/yr. By assuming retreat rates will remain constant, we
then projected the cliff-top positions 50 years into the future.
These projections suggest major impacts in current
infrastructure and households, as well as the cumulative release
of ~530,000 m3 of sediment. In addition, comparison of the
predicted shoreline to 2017 cliff-top positions at control
buildings indicates that there was retreat acceleration that may
be the result of human interventions in the littoral budget.
Stakeholders’ efforts should focus on monitoring episodic
cliff retreat along Minuto de Dios and sectors alike to improve
our knowledge about soft-cliff morphodynamics in tropical
settings. Future research should also include the analysis of
morphological evolution during the Holocene transgression and
the measurement of modern marine and subaerial processes that
depend upon seasonal and multiannual forcing (e.g., El Nino
Southern Oscillation). These analyses will allow stakeholders to
prepare the community for global climate change scenarios
based on statistically-robust observations of shoreline evolution.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
JFPA acknowledges support from the Fulbright Commission,
the U.S. Department of State, EAFIT University, and the
University of Florida (Department of Geological Sciences). This
study was partly developed during the COLCIENCIAS-funded
project “Coastal Erosion in Antioquia” (grant code 1216-452-
21404). This work is a contribution to the PAI Andalusia
Research Group RNM-328. We thank Dr. Rafael Almar and an
anonymous reviewer for their constructive comments that
improved this manuscript. Data are available by emailing JFPA.
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