AQIS cell busted Dawn News Editorial | April21, 2020 WHILE the frequency of terrorist attacks in Karachi has come down considerably compared to what it was a few years ago, it would be naive to assume that militant networks have been permanently neutralised. Proof of this has emerged in the recent arrest of four alleged militants belonging to Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent from the metropolis, which police announced on Sunday. According to law enforcers, the militants were arrested during an operation in the densely populated Gulistan-iJauhar area. Weapons were seized from the suspects; the cell was apparently planning to launch terrorist attacks targeting the Pakistan Stock Exchange, City Courts and other public buildings in Karachi. The law-enforcement agencies must be commended for busting the cell before it could carry out its disastrous agenda, especially at a time when security forces are busy enforcing the lockdown in the province and the rest of the country. The fact is that both militants and violent criminals are well aware of the fact that security men are preoccupied with lockdown-related duties, which is why the security apparatus must continue to keep a watchful eye on such elements to prevent acts of terrorism and mass violence. While most of the planet is in the midst of the battle against Covid-19, violent actors will sense a perfect opportunity to reorganise and carry out acts of terrorism. Therefore, the state must keep two steps ahead of such elements through intelligence-based operations. The threat of jihadi and sectarian terrorism in this country is still there; the militants are only keeping a low profile and waiting for an ‘opportune’ time to resume their business of death and destruction. Indeed, law enforcers have their plates full managing law and order and keeping the peace during these volatile times. But it would be unwise for the security forces to not remain Scanned with CamScannervigilant where the terrorist threat is concerned, in order to prevent large-scale attacks. As the arrest of the AQIS men has shown, militants are keeping themselves busy. Published in Dawn, April 21st, 2020 Scanned with CamScannerTODAY'S PAPER | APRIL 21, 2020 Wrong messaging Editorial | April 21, 2020 AS the government moves to ease the lockdown restrictions, one scene is becoming increasingly familiar: social distancing and coronavirus prevention guidelines are being casually flouted. People can be seen standing close to one another, without masks and touching their faces, apparently unaware of how the coronavirus spreads. From official press conferences to queues outside shops and banks, the situation is no different. The World Health Organisation has time and again repeated how easily the virus that causes Covid-19 can spread: it is mainly transmitted through droplets being generated, not only when an infected person coughs and sneezes but even when they speak. An individual can be infected by breathing in the virus if they are within a few feet of a person who has it. Despite these well-established facts, the importance of practising precautions appears to be lost on many. This attitude towards a virus which has infected thousands of Pakistanis and killed close to 200 — with actual cases likely to be much higher — comes at a high price. The responsibility to make citizens aware of the easy transmissibility of the virus and preventive measures lies with the government. The federal and provincial authorities must be clear in their messaging — and begin by adopting stringent precautionary measures themselves. Starting with the prime minister, every government official should practise social distancing and wear a mask whenever in public. Not only is this important for their protection, it will also remind members of the public to do the same. Bizarrely, in some photos of officials wearing surgical masks, the nose is uncovered, defying logic and the very purpose of wearing a protective item. Politicians should not stop at telling people to wash their hands, but must actively engage in an exercise via their high-profile platforms about keeping a distance and wearing a mask. For those who are unable to purchase masks due to their shortage or lack of resources, there are studies which suggest that even homemade Scanned with CamScannercloth masks add a protective layer; plenty of online tutorials show how these can be made. Sending the right message is even more important now, as Ramazan approaches, because mosques will continue to hold congregational prayers. The Karachi commissioner has done well by saying in a notification that face masks are mandatory for anyone leaving home. The government must enforce this and do whatever it takes to inform citizens about the risks they are taking if these measures are ignored. Published in Dawn, April 21st, 2020 Scanned with CamScannerTODAY'S PAPER | APRIL 21, 2020 mart strategy Editorial | April 21, 2020 AS the battle against the coronavirus rages on, the federal government has made a fresh proposition to the provinces: to enforce lockdown in only those localities from where new cases are being reported. Invoking the term ‘smart lockdown’, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on National Security Moeed Yusuf said the suggestion builds on the prime minister’s view that imposing a blanket lockdown is not a feasible option as it would have serious economic consequences. Essentially, if this smart lockdown is imposed by provincial authorities, restrictions in parts of the country which are deemed ‘low risk’ areas will be relaxed; but they will remain in place in localities where confirmed Covid-19 cases are high. The smart lockdown strategy is heavily dependent on two key factors: mass testing and the availability of data. At the moment, Pakistan is testing between 6,500 to 7,500 people per day in a population of over 200m. While the government has pledged to take this figure to 25,000 by the end of the month, it is far too early to make a call about the selective easing of restrictions and deem areas ‘low risk’. Given that Pakistan is still in the initial stages of grappling with the virus, the government currently has very little information about infection rates, confirmed cases and future projections that supports the easing of restrictions. In fact, even the limited information that is available clearly shows that the Covid-19 graphs for active cases, daily new cases and daily deaths all indicate a steady rise. Moreover, the figures for the actual number of cases and deaths are likely far higher, as testing is limited and reports of an unusual rise in home deaths in Karachi suggest there may be Covid-19-related fatalities outside of hospitals, as has been the case in other countries. The handful of countries that have started to lift restrictions waited till Covid-19 cases had reached their peak and the curve flattened by strict distancing measures. Scanned with CamScannerIn this scenario, the government must continue with the lockdown till patterns for the spread of Covid-19 are well established. Provinces should not jump the gun, imposing a smart lockdown till they have a clear statistical picture of the Covid-19 spread. As they gather this data, authorities must focus on ramping up targeted relief efforts for sections of the public that will face dire economic consequences. A calculation of which areas are low risk’ at this stage is impossible without contact tracing and mass testing, as those without symptoms can pass the virus to vulnerable people without knowing they are carriers. With the partial lifting of restrictions for certain industries and the continuation of congregational prayers in Ramazan, hospitals must brace themselves for an escalation in the spread of the virus in the coming weeks. The government would do well to allow data, and not panic, to determine its future course of action. Published in Dawn, April 21st, 2020 Scanned with CamScannerTODAY'S PAPER | APRIL 21, 2020 Right to work Tariq Hassan | April 21, 2020 ‘The wltris an advocate tothe Supreme Court of Pakistan INTERNATIONAL traffic, trade, investment and finance have been severely disrupted because of the global spread of Covid-19. The pandemic has had an adverse impact on the world economy, resulting in massive reductions in output and growth and, as a result, loss of jobs. The economic impact of attempting to contain the virus is contributing to a global recession. The IMF's projections indicate that the recession caused by the pandemic in 2020 will be as bad if not worse than the recession caused by the global financial crisis in 2008-09. Some economists predict a prolonged slump, turning the recession into a depression similar to the Great Depression (1929-1933). Acommon challenge facing all countries is unemployment due to economic stagnation. Workers are much more exposed and vulnerable to loss of jobs because of lack of or inadequate social protections, especially in developing countries. Therefore, mindful of the unprecedented health and economic crisis, the international business community has called upon world leaders to commit to urgent stimulus and safeguard measures to avoid rampant unemployment, suggesting urgent scale-up of social protections, including payment of a daily allowance, deferment of credit repayments and other liabilities for affected workers. Scanned with CamScannerGovernments are trying to strike a delicate balance between saving lives and livelihoods with a view to ‘flatten the curve’ of infections without levelling the income curve. While some countries like the US and UK have hurriedly passed specific legislations, other countries have adopted and are implementing various policy measures to address both health and economic risks arising from the pandemic. Health measures include restrictions requiring isolation, lockdown and curfew to limit virus transmission. Economic measures include financial stimuli to stabilise the economy generally and expansion or increase of unemployment benefits to mitigate human suffering specifically. Policy responses from Pakistan comprise fiscal, monetary and financial measures, including eliminating duties on emergency health equipment imports, relief to daily wage workers, and cash transfers to low-income families — a total relief package worth Rs1.2 trillion. More measures by the State Bank include introducing a temporary refinance scheme for payment of wages and salaries to workers and employees of business concerns to support continued employment. However, these policy measures are ad hoc and provide temporary relief. Developing countries like Pakistan need to take a long-term view and not be content with such ad hoc measures. Does Pakistan have a long-term solution for unemployment? Everyone has the right to employment. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights proclaims: “everyone has the right to work, to free choice of employment, to just and favourable conditions of work and to protection against unemployment”. It further recognises the right to security in the event of unemployment. The International Covenant Scanned with CamScanneron Economic, Social and Cultural Rights also requires states to “recognise the right to work” and obligates them to “take appropriate steps to safeguard this right”. ‘The ILO Employment Policy Convention requires each member state to declare and pursue, as a major goal, an active policy designed to promote full, productive and freely chosen employment with a view to stimulate economic growth and development, raise levels of living, meet manpower requirements and overcome unemployment and underemployment. The right to work has been enshrined in various constitutions. in Russia, all citizens have the right to work and protection against unemployment under the constitution, In India and Bangladesh, the state is required to make effective provision to secure the right to work and public assistance in cases of unemployment under the India. In Pakistan, the state is required to promote social and economic well-being of the people pursuant to its constitutional Principles of Policy. The state is mandated to “provide basic necessities of life ... for all such citizens ... as are permanently or temporarily unable to earn their livelihood on account of infirmity, sickness or unemployment”. Pakistan does not have an employment policy in place to comply with this constitutional mandate. It should formulate an employment policy designed to promote full employment through job guarantee programmes and unemployment benefits through various compensation and insurance schemes. Unemployment is as harmful as Covid-19. It is not a public health-related issue that only needs to be addressed in an emergency situation. Given the exacerbated unemployment situation that is likely to persist beyond the present pandemic, Pakistan should make every possible effort to tackle unemployment on a long-term basis rather than merely relying on philanthropic measures to overcome the current crisis. Scanned with CamScannerThe writer is an advocate to the Supreme Court of Pakistan. Published in Dawn, April 21st, 2020 Scanned with CamScannerTODAY'S PAPER | APRIL 21, 2020 Lost opportunity? Dr Niaz Murtaza | April 21, 2020 The write isa Fellow with UC Berkeley and heads INSPIRING Pakistan, a progressive policy unit EVERY crisis presents opportunities for a better life later. Optimists feel the Covid-19 crisis does so for Pakistan. There is no denying the opportunities. But will the state and society grasp or miss them? To analyse future outcomes properly, one must first list Pakistan's current problems to see whether the crisis will lessen or enhance them. The problems in the economic, political and social spheres are clear. Economically, Pakistan has seen slow growth for decades as it has failed to spur industry. Spurts of higher growth during this period were unsustainable, superficial and elitist, as under the Musharraf and recent PML-N eras. External and budget deficits are regular as the country fails to earn enough exports or tax revenues. Politically, the biggest issues are the lack of civilian supremacy, and the reality that even with it, we would be ruled by corrupt, elitist, dynastic parties that don’t even deliver the progress that such parties do in Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka. But they still do better than non-democratic options. Socially, the main issues are widespread extremism and irrationality. Scanned with CamScannerWhat will the crisis do to these problems? The economic view is clear. It will push us into our first recession in decades. This will naturally slow down tax revenue growth. Exports and remittances may fall sharply though reduced imports, and debt repayment may soften the impact on the external balance. The best chance for the PTI to prove itself is now. Such huge economic crises do sometimes topple existing elitist power structures. They lead to better governance when the economic crisis damages the hold of existing political elites and reform-minded groups are organised enough to step forward to provide leadership. This happened in some former Soviet states. But there was a third factor in play there. The economic crisis emerged due to the serious defects in their extant politico-economic system. Thus, its basic ideology became discredited, leading to the system’s easier collapse. Will the economic crisis be severe enough to cripple existing power holders, including the establishment, landed and industrialist elite politicians and religious leaders? This depends on how long it lasts. If the most optimistic scenario of it abating in a few months holds, these groups may retain their powers. But if it persists longer, there would be increasing pressure on them. It will still be softened by two factors. First, the crisis will not be seen popularly as having emerged directly due to the elitist power structures but due to natural phenomenon. Thus, the pressure on existing leaders will be lessened. ‘The second issue is the presence of an organised group that can step forward to fill the leadership gap. In many states, such groups emerged from segments of the middle class, Scanned with CamScannereither the techno-managerial professional one or the civil society-linked middle class rooted in labour and other social movements. In Pakistan’s case, its techno-managerial middle class is already part of the power structure in the shape of the PTI. But it has proved itself even more incompetent and disconnected than traditional parties. It appears to be surviving due to the efforts of elements in the establishment that keep it from collapsing. Optimistic analysts present the crisis as a second chance for the PTI to prove itself. But there is little to indicate that this is happening. The serious deficit of competence that plagues the PTI and its leadership is not going to disappear magically. The best chance for the PTI to prove itself is obviously now. But so far it has shown itself out of its depth in tackling the crisis. It failed to institute suitable precautions and lockdowns proactively, didn’t bring political parties together, did not mollify the clergy on Ramazan congregations, and announced a construction package catering to the elite. Yet, the bigger problem is not the PTT’s incompetence, but the more structural incompetence of the establishment with its vice- like grip on politics. The civil-society-linked middle class has good people-oriented ideas but is too small at this stage to step up to fill the void. Thus, if the crisis persists and the current power structure starts to unravel, the gap may actually be filled by extremists and criminal mafias. That would be a worse outcome than the current situation, So, the best that one can hope for from this crisis is a weakening of the elitist power structure led by the establishment so as to provide increasing space for the civil-society-linked middle class to grow and provide leadership over the years. As things stand, opportunities provided by the crisis will likely go abegging again. Scanned with CamScannerThe writer is a Fellow with UC Berkeley and heads INSPIRING Pakistan, a progressive policy unit. murtazaniaz@yahoo.com Twitter: @NiazMurtaza2 Published in Dawn, April 21st, 2020 Scanned with CamScannerTODAY'S PAPER | APRIL 21, 2020 Combating a regressive media awed Naqwi | April 21, 2020 The writer is Dawn's correspondent Delhi in. UNDER the prevailing conditions in India, when a majority of TV channels and leading newspapers have become an appendage of right-wing state policies, a tested approach to an adversarial media is to studiously ignore it. Be assured it’s not a pacifist approach. In fact, it works so well that Mamata Banerjee, Lalu Yadav, Mayawati, as also the left parties on their day, have benefited from it. They have all won elections in the face of sustained state-sponsored media hostility, thereby exposing the overstated reach the idiot box is credited with. The government, the primary user of TV in India, is quite aware that the efficacy in its propaganda machinery lies in the success of its reach. It was thus that it showed its desperation recently, when millions spilled onto the streets from a badly planned pandemic lockdown. The response was so starkly reminiscent of Indira Gandhi's hopeless moment when she lifted the emergency. The crowds headed for Delhi’s Ramlila grounds to join the opposition rally when Mrs Gandhi pulled out an ace. She got Doordarshan, the state TV, to screen the Scanned with CamScannermost popular movie of the day, Bobby. But the movie lovers preferred on this day to mill around the opposition leaders instead. There’s little new in the prejudice other than amore current peg to hang it on — the runaway virus. Not too dissimilar was the current government's attempt to rein in the chaos it unleashed by re-releasing a popular TV serial from Rajiv Gandhi's days, the Ramayana. But the famished masses were least interested in watching TV. A quaint Hindi saying described the dire situation: “Bhookhe bhajan na hoey Gopala.” To sing or hear a devotional song one still needs a morsel of food in the tummy. The late Marxist poet Gorakh Pandey said it equally musically. “Bina roti ke na jhankai sitar sajani.” With no bread to eat, the sitar’s resonating strings go flat. There is a second approach to handling the regressive media. Let’s call it the Arundhati Roy way. Taking a barrage of questions head-on about rumours of a troubled marriage and her alleged fondness for cannabis at a press conference she had called to explain her opposition to the Narmada dam 20 years ago, the writer was at her cryptic best. “I have a house stuffed with drugs and I am not a virgin. But please don’t build the dam.” Apply Roy’s prescription to the ongoing trouble with TV channels. What's the running story people are watching and what should they be seeing instead? Muslims. Indian Muslims They spread disease, the anchors claim, and not so obliquely. Thanks to a thoughtless and ill- timed gathering at the international headquarters of the Tableeghi Jamaat in Delhi during Scanned with CamScannerthe viral outbreak, much of the criticism is valid, but not the generalisation. What follows is ascream. Muslim fruit vendors are being forced by vigilantes with the tacit support of the police to shut down their businesses. A Muslim guard was dismissed because the residents of the Delhi house he was guarding at peril to his life had got the disease. They blamed the guard, but the guard was declared free of the coronavirus. A pregnant woman was shunted between hospitals in Varanasi where the people turned her away because of her religion. Yet, remember, much of this we have seen in 2002 when there was no pandemic, and in Delhi more recently. There’s little new in the prejudice other than a more current peg to hang it on — the runaway virus. The Hindu-Muslim binary is the traction the TV channels need to ply their trade. What do the people expect and what are they getting? Much of the problem is aggravated in the minds of our TV addict friends. They like watching the horror movies only to complain about the inevitable gore. In fact, they watch the same horror story every day and come out retching. In Roy's view, not losing the focus of one’s objective is handy advice at the best and worst of times. The dam was built, of course, and its horrific consequences also turned out as predicted, an unmitigated disaster for the poor and the environment alike. On the other hand, her remarks were too cutting for the TV channels to carry, for doing so would expose the foundations of yellow journalism that much of the Indian media has surrendered to. Scanned with CamScannerDiscerning news gluttons would be wondering aloud: alright, that’s the Muslim story but how does that explain the dispossessed and stranded millions? How does that explain the untenable assault on The Wire portal, the arrest of outspoken intellectuals, including a Dalit writer? What the channels are not keen to tell our TV addicts is that the swarming prejudice has not spared anyone, People from the northeast have been attacked racially. Christian citizens and their churches have been raided in different parts of India, most of all in Uttar Pradesh during the current outbreak. Dalits have suffered at the hands of mobs as usual. There has also been a report of a lynching of the poorest tribes’ folks in Maharashtra with attempts to give it a Hindu-Muslim colour. The Hindu-Muslim fixation suits two constituencies but has little or no relevance for the wider strife in India. It certainly doesn’t interest the Kashmiris, who feel betrayed by Hindus and Muslims alike, particularly the Muslim clergy. Every communally laced report shores up Muslim clerics. And that could be the reason that while Christians, Sikhs, Dalits, Hindus, Jains, Buddhists showed up in Shaheen Bagh in solidarity, we cannot find a Muslim cleric, apart from a few individuals, standing in solidarity with other harassed Indians. The TV channels will not tell you this, but the Muslim clerics are their best-kept secret. The writer is Dawn's correspondent Delhi in. jawednaqvi@gmail.com Published in Dawn, April 21st, 2020 Scanned with CamScannerTODAY'S PAPER | APRIL 21, 2020 ‘World is full of trade-offs’ Asifa Noor | April 21, 2020 The writer is 2 journalist. TO lockdown or not to lockdown. That appeared to he the question, this past week, once again as the PTI government in the centre decided to ease the lockdown to allow some economic activity. There was a storm of protest as many felt this was an unwise step. There is a widespread opinion that the lockdown should continue — medical experts such as Dr Abdul Bari of The Indus Hospital also feel that a month-long lockdown is the bare minimum. Pakistan’s lockdown — announced with small differences within provinces — began around the end of March. By April 14 it was extended (albeit not uniformly), and hence began the debate, especially as it appears as if Sindh and Punjab are following two different policies. Perhaps it is important to remember that experts suggest a lockdown not because it can end a virus, but only to slow down its spread. As the oft-used phrase goes, countries need to flatten the curve; few are aiming to squash it! The policy is meant to buy time for the health services and to put in place other measures that can help us cope better with the virus. Scanned with CamScannerKeeping Pakistan’s overall capacity and financial situation in mind, one cannot assume that all the measures needed are in place, and yet the policy is being changed. Economists are voicing their concern over the adverse effects of a lockdown in developing states. But the change might be provoked by other factors. In the days since Pakistan implemented the lockdown, the debate over lockdowns has widened and a number of (development) economists seem to be voicing their concern over the adverse effects of a lockdown in developing countries. One such piece, ‘Poor countries need to think twice about social distancing’ published on Foreign Policy's website, argued that poorer countries may not be able to afford lockdowns and that such policies may not be as effective as they are elsewhere. The writers state: “Because there is ample evidence that the economic costs of distancing — especially the burden on the poor —are a lot higher, a serious assessment is urgently required to determine what other measures could effectively save lives while minimising losses in aggregate welfare.” They also wrote: “An equally effective social distancing policy is predicted to reduce coronavirus-related mortality by 1.3 million people in the United States and 426,000 in Germany. Such a policy would only save 182,000 people in Pakistan and 102,000 in Nigeria.” Scanned with CamScannerA blog on The Times of India’s website quotes economics Nobel laureate Angus Deaton: “countries with strong administrations and health systems could enforce social spacing, comprehensive testing, isolation... [to] check the epidemic. But in poor countries with weak administrative and medical capacity, shutdowns would not check the disease. ... [T]he disease would spread despite shutdowns.” In fact, the growing debate includes some voices that are not entirely convinced of the lockdowns in the West either. Elizabeth Bogan, a professor at Princeton who admits that hers is a contrarian position, has also raised questions about the hardship caused by the lockdown in an interview to the podcast Policy Punchline. She says: “California closed all its restaurants except for take-out. The restaurant business in California employs 1,830,000 people according to restaurant.org. That’s 11 per cent of California's employment. Probably about a million of them have lost their jobs. How will they pay their rent? How sick will they be from stress? How much will their children suffer? Even if the government plans to compensate them it will be a mess. Many live on tips and there may not be records of what they usually make.” Her argument, as some others (eg ‘India’s response to coronavirus can’t be based on existing epidemiological models’ in The Print), is also that there is not enough data to judge how much damage the virus will cause. She points out: “Deaths/cases have little meaning if you are getting case data only based on testing the very sickest patients. What if those without symptoms or with only mild flu-like symptoms who had Covid-19 were not tested, as we know was the situation? Then the deaths predicted from the very sick only sample would be grossly too large compared to the infected population.” Those in Pakistan have also highlighted this debate. The News recently published more than one opinion piece on the need for a ‘smart lockdown’. The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics has also written about it and recommended a policy that “contains the infection Scanned with CamScannerand also allows some basic level of economic activity. A model developed by a group of scientists recommends an intermittent lockdown: 10 days of lockdown and four days of work per fortnight. The basic notion behind this is that, ‘In this way, the virus replication number, ie the number of people infected by each infectious person, drops below one — the magic number that causes the epidemic to decline’.’ It appears that this debate is one factor behind the federal government's change in policy. The Sindh government is also considering this because it is meeting traders and others to finalise the SOPs for businesses to open even as it is pushing for a stricter lockdown. Perhaps what is also driving the government is the realisation that there is not much of a lockdown in the poorer parts of the bigger cities or the rural areas, even as it has robbed people of their earnings. Also, their decision to seal off high-risk areas in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Islamabad seems to have paid off, which is a policy that will be followed in the days to come. Sindh, too, had decided to do this in Karachi. However, it must be acknowledged there is no clear-cut policy that is guaranteed to show the desired results — ensure the lives of people as well as their financial well-being — because no one seems to know enough about the disease or the impact of the lockdown. It is possible that the numbers grow so much in the coming days that the government imposes another lockdown. Only in hindsight will we be able to judge the policy decisions being made now. Even then, there may be no clear-cut answer. Says Borgan of the Spanish flu, “The cities with the interventions flattened the curve, but didn’t reduce the cases or death rates significantly overall.” The writer is a journalist. Scanned with CamScannerPublished in Dawn, April 21st, 2020 Scanned with CamScanner