DCAF System improves drought events monitoring and forecasting in the country

Published:
Written by Jacob B. Labita

The Philippines’s agricultural sector is devastated by several drought events together

with the 2015 El Niño event, which considered the strongest since 1950s. Drought is
a natural disaster that has more negative and severe impacts in agricultural areas,
hence it is a threat on food security and associated socio-economic conditions. The
current drought and crop assessment and forecasting capability of the country by
ground measurements and surveys is difficult, costly and limited. However, with
satellite data, analysis and assessment can be done at national to municipal scale at
various durations (i.e.annual, daily).

A new drought and crop assessment and forecasting system that processed several
satellite dataset was developed by the Institute of Environmental Science and
Meteorology (IESM) in the University of the Philippines-Diliman (UP) along with
cooperating agencies, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (DOST-PAGASA) and Bureau of Soil and Water Management
(DA-BSWM), through the funding support of Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic
and Natural Resources Research and Development of the Department of and
Technology (DOST-PCAARRD).

According to Dr. Gay Jane Perez of UP-IESM, the DCAF’s seasonal forecasts will
serve as an early warning for drought to help farmers avoid major crop loss. The
system can forecast drought six months ahead. It was developed through combination
of satellite and ground data.

The satellite and ground data are subjected to both statistical and dynamical models
and combine their strengths to have an accurate drought forecast. The physical-based
nature of dynamical models and the superiority of statistical model on analysis of
historical data enhances the forecast capability.

Dr. Perez is an Associate Professor of UP-IESM in Diliman, Quezon City. He led the
PCAARRD-funded project, “Drought and Crop Assessment and Forecasting (DCAF).”
Aside from drought forecasting, Dr. Perez and his team completed the satellite-derived
maps, crop classification maps, drought vulnerability map and drought index.

Moreover, the outputs were handed over to PCAARRD for its El Niño Project, DOST-
PAGASA and DA-BSWM.

UP-IESM are pushing for Phase II that will focus on enhancement of products and
technology transfer for sustainability of output. The project team is providing
technology transfer to different agencies which will operationalize the products into
their systems.

The development of systems and other products are expected to update and enhance
in response to the availability of new relevant innovations.