Online Survey on Economic Impact

of COVID-19 in Indonesia
Results from Week 4

Rema Hanna (Harvard University) and Ben

Olken (MIT)
J-PAL Southeast Asia (J-PAL SEA)
Outline

Background and Motivation

Findings from week 4

➢ Employment
➢ Food insecurity
➢ Migration
➢ Government services
➢ Healthy lifestyle changes

Appendix

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 2
Outline

Background and Motivation

Findings from week 4

➢ Employment
➢ Food insecurity
➢ Migration
➢ Government services
➢ Healthy lifestyle changes

Appendix

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 3
With COVID-19 cases increasing rapidly, online survey may provide
robust and real-time information to help guide data-driven decision
making

The survey aims to study the economic impacts

of the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesians,
monitoring changes in:
• People’s knowledge and the practice of social
distancing
• Employment
• Migration
• Food security
• Use of government programs

Picture: www.covid19.go.id

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A
 Survey Design and Implementation

SURVEY PERIOD METHOD RESPONDENTS

• Conducted once per week for • Online using Google •500 respondents/week
10 weeks Survey Platform from two groups
• So far, we have results from • Used SUSENAS-2019 to >Group 1: 200
Week 1: March 29th, 2020
Week 2: April 6th, 2020
create sample weights to respondents aged 18+
Week 3: April 13th, 2020 and approximate Indonesian >Group 2: 300
Week 4: April 20th, 2020 demographics (see respondents aged 35+
appendix). All graphs use
• Benchmark questions for these weights.
comparability prior COVID-19
crisis: status as of end Feb. • The graphs reflect 95%
2020 confidence intervals
P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 5
Tradeoffs of Using Online Surveys

Benefits:
• Provides quick-turn results capturing people across the
country
• Complies with social distancing policies
• Can match age/region/gender distribution to Indonesia.

But, keep in mind:

• Limited to individuals with access to internet and device
such as smartphone or computer
• Google Surveys uses convenience sampling*
• Limitations on number of questions (10), response options,
and characters
• Anonymous – cannot track individual respondents over
time

* the platform selects people who are easy to reach

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 6
Findings from Weeks 1- 4

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Key takeaways from first four weeks of COVID-19 survey:

• As in first three weeks:

– Unemployment is high across all areas
– Many unemployed people have not yet received government assistance

• Behavior change
– Personal sanitation (handwashing, sanitizer) use has expanded considerably,
with almost 3 out of 4 respondents increasing their use of these practices
since the COVID-19 outbreak
– Still, only 21% of respondents report changes in social distancing

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 8
Outline

Background and motivation

Findings from week 4

➢ Employment
➢ Food insecurity
➢ Migration
➢ Government assistance program
➢ Healthy lifestyle changes

Appendix

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 9
Unemployment: 65% men and women are not currently working, and
unemployment appears to be trending upward for men

“Were you working at least 1 hour consecutively

per week at the end of February 2020, but are
now temporarily no longer working?” (adapted
from SAKERNAS)

• 65% of men and women are

not currently working
– 56% were working before, but are
no longer working.
– 9% reported that they do not work.
• 35% used to work prior to the crisis
and are still working.
• Responses may overstate true
unemployment rate if
unemployed more likely to answer
survey

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 10
Job loss appears high across cities and districts

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 11
Note: We define not currently working as answering “I used to work, but I am not working now” or “I do not work” to the question “Were you working at least 1 hour consecutively per week at the
end of February 2020, but are now temporarily no longer working?”.
Job loss appears high both on- and off- Java

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 12
 Job loss occurring in all sectors of employment

• All sectors, including

agriculture, services,
manufacturing,
health, hotel and
others
• Patterns similar for
week 1 and week 4
(W1 and W4)

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 13
Note: SUSENAS categories were condensed as follows: Agriculture: Agriculture, plantation, fishery, etc.; Services: Trade, transportation, warehouse, construction, other services; Manufac.elect.
And mining: Manufacture, electricity and gas, mining, and excavation. The rest are the same. See Appendix 2 for details.
Job loss affecting all education levels, including university graduates

Affecting all education

levels, including primary,
middle school, high
school, diploma (D1, D2,
D3), bachelors (S1) post-
graduate (S2, S3)

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 14
Outline

Background and motivation

Findings from week 4

➢ Employment
➢ Food Insecurity
➢ Migration
➢ Government assistance program
➢ Healthy lifestyle changes

Appendix

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 15
Food insecurity: 35% households eating less than usual often

“In the last week, how often did you or your

household eat less than they should due to
a lack of money or other financial
resources?” (adapted from SUSENAS)

• 35% of households report

having to eat less than they
should often
• Only 22% of households ate
as usual in the last week

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 16
Food insecurity remains over 60% in all cities and Kabupaten
for both men and women

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Food insecurity remains high for both on- and off- Java

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 18
Note: We define eating less as answering “often”, “sometimes” or “seldom” to the question “In the last week, how often did you or your household eat less than they should due to a lack of money or other financial
resources?”.
Food insecurity remains higher among those with lower education
levels

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 19
Outline

Background and motivation

Findings from week 4

➢ Employment
➢ Food insecurity
➢ Migration
➢ Government assistance program
➢ Healthy lifestyle changes

Appendix

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Migration Patterns: 37% of men and 34% of women report moving
since the crisis

“Are you living somewhere different

now compared to where you were at
the end of Feb 2020?”

• No significant change
across weeks
• More people moved within
their districts or city (23% of
men and 22% of women)
than moved across (14% of
men and 12% of women)

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 21
Migration has occurred from cities, as well as urban and rural areas
of districts, with some variance across weeks

• Rural migration
appears to be
trending upward
for women

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For men, migration patterns are similar for both those living on- and
off-Java island

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Migration has occurred across all education groups

• 39% of men and 41% of women

with primary education or below
have migrated

• 42% of men and 23% of women

with college degrees or higher
have migrated

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 24
Outline

Background and motivation

Findings from week 4

➢ Employment
➢ Food insecurity
➢ Migration
➢ Government assistance program
➢ Healthy lifestyle changes

Appendix

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Accessing government’s programs:
20% of men and 17% of women report using food assistance
program (BPNT) or conditional cash transfer (PKH)
What government programs have you
used within the last four weeks?
(check all that apply)

• About 25% of men and

21% of women report
using government
provided health
insurance
• Use of government
programs has been
similar across weeks

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 26
Use of government programs among those who are not working
remains low

• Across all weeks,

only 23% of men
and 18% of women
who were not
working are
covered by
BPNT/Sembako or
PKH
• Use of government
programs among
those currently not
working has been
similar across weeks

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 27
Government program coverage by migration status

Did not migrate

Migrated

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 Men in urban and rural districts are less likely to be covered by
BPNT/Sembako and PKH than in the cities

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 29
Outline

Background and motivation

Findings from week 4

➢ Employment
➢ Food insecurity
➢ Migration
➢ Government assistance program
➢ Healthy lifestyle changes

Appendix

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 30
Behavior change: 72% respondents report life changes in regards to
sanitation, but only 21% made changes to improve social distancing

• About 72% of individuals report a

change in at least one personal
sanitation activity
– more frequent hand washing with
soap
– wearing a mask or using sanitizer
• Still, in Week 4, only 21% said that they
made a change with regards to social
distancing
– reducing being in a group of 10
– spending less time gathering with
neighbors
– coordinating the public laundry
schedule

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 31
Adoption of social distancing still lagging:
- Many have not reduced gatherings

• Increased hand washing

with soap remains the most
commonly implemented
practice (58%), followed by
sanitizer or mask use (24%)

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 32
Patterns remain similar on- and off-Java

Personal Sanitation Social Distancing

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 33
Patterns look roughly similar across urban and rural areas

Personal Sanitation Social Distancing

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Slightly more social distancing for higher education groups
… but still low across the board

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Appendix 1: Statistical Method
for Matching

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Statistical Method for Matching
• Online surveys use convenience sampling, which means it is not representative of
Indonesia but rather who chooses to answer the survey questions. For example, the
COVID sample has more people from Java than the SUSENSAS (66% versus 58%), but a
similar percent of rural households (39% in the COVID sample and 43% in the SUSENAS).

• To improve representativeness, we weight the our sample to match the SUSENAS-2019

so that the demographics of the survey sample “match” the general population

• We created weights separately for men and women, using age, rural-urban status,
and an indicator for on versus off Java

• The following graphs display the characteristics from the SUSENAS versus our matched
sample, and show that the distributions now match

P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 37
Age of Men, SUSENAS-2019 vs. COVID Survey with and without
weights.

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Age for Women: SUSENAS-2019 vs. COVID survey with and without
weights

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Percent of People who Live in Java, by Gender and Survey

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Percent of People who Live in Rural Area, by Gender and Survey

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Appendix 2: Occupation Sectors

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Employment sector among respondents are similar from Week 1 to 4,
with a majority from the agriculture sector

Condition pre-crisis
COVID-19 (end of
February):
• 33% employed in
agriculture prior
• 6% in the health sector
• 7% in hotel and restaurant

Note: SUSENAS categories were condensed as follows: Agriculture: Agriculture, plantation, fishery, etc.; Services: Trade, transportation, warehouse, construction, other services; Unemp. housewife
retired: Unemployment, retired, housewife; Manufac.elect. And mining: Manufacture, electricity and gas, mining, and excavation. The rest are the same.
P O V E R T Y AC T I O N L AB . O R G / S O U T H E AS T - AS I A 43
Thank you.

povertyactionlab.org
twitter.com/JPAL_SEA

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