10 Slides to make

you think about

COVID-19, India

K. Ramakrishnan, Manoj Menon, P.S Pradeep &

The Worldpanel Leadership Team
Worldpanel Division, India
11th June, 2020
 How the ten slides made us think about COVID-19
The number of cases is a good metric to track; but an even
1. better metric is what % of the population is affected, which
gives us an understanding of how severe the issue might be.
Maharashtra and Delhi swap places here.
We now see flattened volume trend for 9 continuous weeks.
Demonetization saw similar flattening, which disappeared
2. after 8 weeks. Markets have opened up, but cases have
picked up pace. Also, consumers have been buying, so they
have stocks to last – this flat trend may persist in June too
Spends keep increasing in the two months of Lock Down.
However, June is when the job-losses, lack of work, pay-cuts
3.
etc., start being felt. In addition to this, non-FMCG expenses
will start picking up as commute begins again. FMCG spends
may not see the level of growths they’ve seen till now in June
Over 60% of Baby FMCG is Baby Care. The rest is Baby
Foods. So, we do not see big hoarding as Lock down was
4. announced, but that week was the highest Week 4 on record.
But Week 1 returns to normal trends because Baby FMCG is
largely uncompromisable to the parent
Green Zones have opened up first according to the
Government plan, but because they were farther from the
5. cities they did not benefit much. Orange Zones performed the
best. The fact that their stocking up was the least, also meant
that they bought more in subsequent weeks
Over 55% of the Indian cases are from the top 5 cities*. As
6. these cities see escalating cases, we find that fewer and fewer
households are coming out to buy FMCG as we go deep. This
will lead to stocking up in order to reduce occasions. Brand
Owners will benefit from a deep dive into these cities
The week of May 3rd to 9th saw the highest weekly penetration
across many categories during lock down. Yet, the numbers
7. are significantly behind a typical week 1. Whether this is some
indication of a returning normalcy which will get an even
bigger jump in June, is something we have to wait and watch
Every market had some impact felt on their baskets. Basket
changes could be either a total dumping of a category or a
8.
reduction in consumption of the category. Andhra Pradesh
and Maharashtra sit on a spectrum
Two types of Pack Sizes were seen growing faster than they
are expected to – small packs and the most popular packs.
9. Popularity measured in terms of penetration. Support both
these packs to reap a share of their growth
Most of the Categories have now recovered. There are a few
categories that have a really high first week dependence,
10. which are still in an oscillating trend, purely because of that
dependency. Less than 10% of the FMCG volumes are from
the At Risk bucket, which is good for the sector
10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India – 11th June, 2020
* According to the Household Panel, Mumbai and Thane are considered as one Urban City
2
The 6 states worst hit generate 54% of FMCG volume
And with 43% FMCG value generated here, their economic well-being is paramount for the sector

Trend of Cumulative Cases per million population

(Day 1 representing day when cases crossed 1,000)
1800
Delhi
1600

1400

1200 This chart attempts to take the size of the state into account. Maharashtra might have the highest
number of cases, but Delhi has more of its population affected.
1000
J&K and Haryana are following Delhi’s trends; While Gujarat managed to slow its spread, Tamil Nadu
800 has taken off in the last few weeks Maharashtra

600

400 Tamil Nadu

J&K
Gujarat
200
Haryana Rajasthan
Madhya Pradesh
0 17
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061
Number of Days

10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India – 11th June, 2020

Source: ICMR Data compiled by Data Aggregators
3
The flattening of weekly volumes continues for the second month
Expect a similar trend to continue in June as households will take time to consume their stocks

FMCG Volume (000 tons)

900

771

586
First Cluster of Cases in India
517
432 429 447 427
396 394 395 414
375 378
346

Lock down 1.0

Lock down 2.0

Lock down 3.0

Lock down 4.0

180
120

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5

FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY

10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India – 11th June, 2020

Source: Worldpanel division, India 4
Based on Weekly Data collection from 7500 Urban Households; Urban India Data
Spends increase in each of the lockdown months
As the nation gets into unlocking and non-FMCG spends rise, expect a muted performance in June

Average Spend

March (Rs.) April (Rs.) May (Rs.) Lockdown (Rs.)

4638
2196
2333
1754

∆ Rs. 269 ∆ Rs. 124 ∆ Rs. 241 ∆ Rs. 473

53% 8% 12% 11%

1927 4165
2092
1630

2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020

10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India – 11th June, 2020

Source: Worldpanel division, India 5
Based on Weekly Data collection from 7500 Urban Households; Urban India Data
Babies Clearly Win: Baby FMCG does not see a flattening as the rest of FMCG
Despite the highest Week 4 ever in March, Week 1 follows normal pattern

Baby Categories Volume (tons)

1250 1230
1183
1148
2661 tons 2451 tons 2660 tons

706
612
570 546
537
466
426
352
293 305 297

WK 1 WK 2 WK 3 WK 4 WK 1 WK 2 WK 3 WK 4 WK 1 WK 2 WK 3 WK 4 WK 1 WK 2 WK 3

JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL

10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India – 11th June, 2020

Source: Worldpanel division, India 6
Based on the Baby Panel Data, April Data Release
Green Zones are the worst affected, possibly because of distribution
Expect Orange and Green Zones to start evening out in June
ROG Clusters Volume Growth over LY (%)
(Cumulated from the first week of lock down)
NOTE THAT THIS DATA IS FOR URBAN ONLY

101.6
41.9
37.0 Mirroring trends as the zones enter
into the “Unlock” mode

Red Zones see super panic buying to

start with and crash as a result. Orange Zones
Reasonable growth afterward
15.1

Green Zones
6.5
8.9

LD 1.0 LD 2.0 LD 3.0 LD 4.0 LD 5.0

LD 1.0 LD 2.0 LD 3.0 LD 4.0 LD 5.0

10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India – 11th June, 2020

Source: Worldpanel division, India 7
Geo Clustering of markets based on weekly Data collection from 7500 Urban Households; Urban India Data
ROG Clusters as defined by the Government of India, May 1st 2020
The Big Case metros have already been hit hard
20% Urban volume under jeopardy; will rest of Urban follow suit as cases now spreading outside metros?

% Weekly Penetration of FMCG, 2020

Gaps keep widening, with more
100 households coming into the
Fall 2 market consistently in the Not-
95 Fall 1
so-affected metros
90 7%
5%
Gap 9%
Gap
85 Gap

80

75

70

65

60
Representation of the same time periods for 2019. In no
55 Worst Affected metros week do the Rest of Metros have a higher penetration than
Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Pune the Worst Affected Metros
50
Mar, Week Mar, Week Mar, Week Mar, Week Apr, Week Apr, Week Apr, Week Apr, Week May, Week May, Week May, Week May, Week
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Worst Affected Metros Rest of the Metros

10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India – 11th June, 2020

Source: Worldpanel division, India 8
Based on Weekly Data collection from 7500 Urban Households; Urban India Data
May 3rd to 9th saw a jump in penetration across many categories
This roughly corresponds to the first week, could this the beginning of the return to normalcy?

% Penetration
70

60

50 Benchmark

40 May 2nd-8th

30 Previous highest LD
penetration

20
The biggest Lock down week’s penetration is still miles behind an average first week. Yet,
10 more households venturing out in the week of May 3rd to 9th is a positive sign

0
Detergent Bars Toilet Soaps Hair Wash Tooth Paste Noodles Tea Spices Hair Oils Cooking Media Washing
Powder
May 3rd to 9th Previous Highest Lock Down Penetration Week 1 of Feb (for Benchmark)

10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India – 11th June, 2020

Source: Worldpanel division, India 9
Based on Weekly Data collection from 7500 Urban Households; Urban India Data
Very few markets hold on to niche categories in their baskets
Consumption diverted from niche categories to big categories, even in markets where they are bought

Basket Impact (Categories dropped vs. Categories reduced)

25
Moderately affected baskets; Over 10
categories drop consumption and 2
Y-Axis: No. of Categories losing Consumption

categories miss out being bought MH

Big Categories preferred over fringe
20 categories; smaller categories are either
removed or reduced Not only did Maharashtra buyer drop over 3
KN MP
categories from her basket, but consumption
RJ of 22 categories turned negative – worst
15 GH
BH JH
affected market by far
CG
WB TN
OR GJ
10 UP PH
KL DL
AP

Manage budgets by dropping categories, while

5
Least affected markets: Continue to buy largely continue to buy other categories in the
most of the regular categories and largely with same manner as before
little change to consumption
0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
X-Axis: No. of Categories Dropped During Lock Down

10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India – 11th June, 2020

Source: Worldpanel division, India 10
Based on Weekly Data collection from 7500 Urban Households; Urban India Data
Winning packs are either the highest penetrated packs, or small packs
Atta is the only aberration where a reasonably big pack found significant growth

Volume Contribution to Category & Category Growth (%) Top SKU in the category ●
Penetration 2nd Biggest SKU ●
90.5
● 48% 87.6 3rd Biggest SKU ●
● 52%
67.8
● 6% ● 62% 56.0
● 7%
48.5 ● 30% 52.9
45.1
● 34%
33.5 34.2
31.4
27.5

13.4 14.5
12.0

Rs. 10 Detergent Bar Single Rs. 10 Bar MFD Under 30 Grams Tea 100Gms 1 Ltr Refined Oil 1 KG Washing Powder 10 KG Branded Atta
Soaps
SKUs Contribution to Category Volume (%) SKUs Contribution to Category Growth During Lock Down (%)

10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India – 11th June, 2020

Source: Worldpanel division, India 11
Based on Weekly Data collection from 7500 Urban Households; Urban India Data
 Most of the categories have been gaining in at least 7 of the ten weeks
Few categories are impacted by flattening of the first week of the month, hence, lose during those weeks
% of FMCG Value

12% 66% 14% 9%

In Demand Recovered Oscillating Serious Risk
Cumulative Weekly Lost volume in 7 or few
Lost volumes in a few Losses for 8 or more weeks
Volumes Grows over Last weeks after growth, but
weeks but recovered during lock down
Year’s intermittently lose volumes

Hand Wash Detergent Bars Shampoo Talcum Powder

Hand Sanitizers Bar Soaps Air Fresheners Soft Drinks
Chyawanprash Breakfast Cereals MFDs Chocolates
Skin Creams Noodles Ketchups Hair Colours
Biscuits Insecticides Salt Deodorants

Average Graph Shape

10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India – 11th June, 2020

Source: Worldpanel division, India 12
Based on Weekly Data collection from 7500 Urban Households; Urban India Data