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4.1 A time‐homogeneous Markov jump process is to be used to monitor the number of athletes
opting to be omnivore, vegetarian or vegan, over a 10‐year period. At any time, an athlete may
be classed as:
an Omnivore (1)
Vegetarian (2)
Vegan (3)
The annual transition rates collected from past data are given here:
All of the athletes were omnivores as children.
(v) Calculate the probability that:
(a) An omnivore athlete is a vegetarian in 10 years’ time.
(b) An omnivore athlete is a vegan in 10 years’ time.
(vi) After an extended analysis of trends in the diet of athletes, expert nutritionists have
proposed some new rates, which take into account predicted future trends as well as the
past data:
Recalculate the probabilities from part (v) under these new rates and comment on your
answers. [8]
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Page 2 CS2 B: Chapters 4 and 5 Markov jump process Questions
5.1 In a particular European country, where anyone over the age of 18 may vote, there are 3 main
political parties:
the “Reds” (R)
the “Blues” (B)
the “Xenophobes” (X)
A company that produces and sells opinion polls has suggested that the voting population’s
political affiliation be monitored over time using a 3‐state Markov process.
(i) Explain the most suitable choice for the time set if a Markov chain is used. [4]
The company has decided to use a time‐inhomogeneous Markov jump process with the following
age‐dependent transition rates between the political parties:
where t is the voter’s age and it is assumed, for simplicity, that all voters are no older than 110.
(a) the rate at which a 25‐year old member of the Blues moves to the Reds
(b) the rate at which a 60‐year old member of the Reds moves to the Blues
(c) the rate at which a 50‐year old member of the Blues moves to the Xenophobes.
[8]
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CS2 B: Chapters 4 and 5 Markov jump process Questions Page 3
P t , t h I hA t
where I is the identity matrix. Probabilities over longer time periods will be calculated by
successively multiplying the probabilities over shorter time periods as follows:
t s h1
P s,t P s hj , s hj h
j 0
(a) the probability that a 25‐year old member of the Blues moves to the Reds over
the next 10 years.
(b) the probability that a 60‐year old member of the Reds moves to the Blues over
the next 5 years.
(c) the probability that a 50‐year old member of the Xenophobes moves to the Reds
over the next 7 years. [12]
(iv) Discuss whether this time‐inhomogeneous Markov jump process is a good model for
tracking political party affiliation. [8]
[Total 32]
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