The Sun Killed COVID

6/18/2020 The Sun Killed COVID
The Sun Killed COVID

Analysis by Dr. Joseph Mercola  Fact Checked
STORY AT-A-GLANCE -
 Deaths from COVID-19 dropped rapidly from a peak in late April to a low in May
 A number of studies have suggested COVID-19 may taper off during the summer, due to
higher humidity and other factors
 A 1% decrease in humidity was predicted to increase the number of COVID-19 cases by

6.11%
 COVID-19 disease severity is associated with vitamin D levels, with lower levels linked to
more severe disease
 If COVID-19 is seasonal, a resurgence is likely come fall, which is why the time for
optimizing your vitamin D level is now
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s provisional death counts for
COVID-19 show a striking change. While starting at zero in February 2020 and spiking
up to more than 5,000 deaths per week for the oldest age range (85 and over) and 111
among 25- to 34-year-olds in late April, they’ve plummeted.
There were 199 COVID-19 deaths for the week ending May 30, 2020, among those 85
and over, while only one death was reported among 25- to 34-year-olds — an extremely
rapid decline from April to May.1 What happened to make the deaths come to a
standstill, according to some experts, might be the same seasonal ebb and ow that
happens with many respiratory infections: Summer may have killed it.
Many Respiratory Infections Decline in the Summer

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While it’s possible to get respiratory infections like in uenza any time of year, in uenza
is more common during the fall and winter, hence the “ u season” during those months.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a leading cause of severe respiratory illness in young
children and those aged 65 and over, is also more common in the fall and winter.
At least four common coronaviruses are also highly seasonal with transmission similar
to in uenza.2 Although these aren’t related to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-
19, it is genetically related to the coronavirus responsible for the severe acute
respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak of 2003.
This is notable because, as noted by professor Paul Hunter from the University of East
Anglia in England, “Sars largely spread in hospitals but still died out in the summer in the
Northern Hemisphere.”3 There are a number of reasons why SARS was quickly contained
in about eight months, but the summer, with its higher temperature and humidity level, is
among them.
What Makes Summer Less Conducive to Respiratory Infection?
Winter’s dry, cold air is favorable to the spread of u transmission, and in uenza spread
is known to be affected by both temperature and humidity.4 During the winter, people
also spend more time indoors, in enclosed spaces with less ventilation and less
personal space compared to being outdoors in the summer.5
School is usually in session during the fall and winter, with students at home over the
summer. School terms have been associated with higher transmission of respiratory
viruses, while holidays lead to a 20% to 29% reduction in the rate at which in uenza is
transmitted in children.6 So, just the fact that children are in school in the winter may
raise transmission rates.
What’s more, as noted by Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology and director of the
Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public
Health:7
“It is possible that the condition of the average person’s immune system is
systematically worse in winter than summer. One hypothesis has focused on
melatonin which has some immune effects and is modulated by the
photoperiod, which varies seasonally. Another with more evidence is that
vitamin D levels, which depend in part on ultraviolet light exposure (higher in
summer) modulate our immune system in a positive way.”
Studies Suggest COVID-19 May Be Seasonal
A number of studies have suggested COVID-19 may, in fact, taper off during the
summer. One preprint study tracked the seasonality of in uenza viruses and endemic
human coronaviruses over an eight-year period. The activity of human coronaviruses
peaked the rst week of January, with transmission facilitated by low indoor relative
humidity (RH) of 20% to 30%.8
The researchers cited previous studies that found an increase in relative humidity to
50% reduced the transmission of both in uenza and animal coronaviruses. What’s more,
the study found a decrease in disease incidence by 50% in early March, 75% in early
April and greater than 99% at the end of April. According to the study:9
“As a lipid-bound, enveloped virus with similar size characteristics to endemic

human coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 should be subject to the same dynamics of
reduced viability and transmission with increased humidity. In addition to the
major role of social distancing, the transition from lower to higher indoor RH
with increasing outdoor temperatures could have an additive effect on the
decrease in SARS-CoV-2 cases in May.
Over the 8-year period of this study, human coronavirus activity was either zero
or >99% reduction in the months of June through September, and the
implication would be that SARS-Cov-2 may follow a similar pattern.”
Humidity May Be a Major Factor
A study conducted in Sydney, Australia, found a similar connection between humidity

and COVID-19. A 1% decrease in humidity was predicted to increase the number of
cases by 6.11%,10 with researchers stating, “During periods of low relative humidity, the
public health system should anticipate an increased number of COVID‐19 cases.”11
Professor Michael Ward, an epidemiologist in the Sydney School of Veterinary Science

at the University of Sydney, said in a news release that humidity appeared to be a major
factor:12
"When it comes to climate, we found that lower humidity is the main driver here,
rather than colder temperatures. It means we may see an increased risk in
winter here, when we have a drop in humidity. But in the northern hemisphere, in
areas with lower humidity or during periods when humidity drops, there might
be a risk even during the summer months.
… When the humidity is lower, the air is drier and it makes the aerosols smaller.
When you sneeze and cough those smaller infectious aerosols can stay
suspended in the air for longer. That increases the exposure for other people.
When the air is humid and the aerosols are larger and heavier, they fall and hit
surfaces quicker."
Aside from affecting transmission rates, humidity may also affect the survival of
viruses. The addition of a portable humidi er with an output of 0.16 kilograms of water
per hour in the bedroom increased absolute humidity 11% and relative humidity 19%
during sleeping hours compared to having no humidi er present, according to one study.
Along with the increases in humidity came a decrease in the survival of in uenza virus,
by 17.5% to 31.6%.13
Humidity even in uences innate immune defenses against viral infections. In an animal
study, dry air compromised the mice’s resistance to infection, and those housed at lower
humidity levels had impaired mucociliary clearance, innate antiviral defense and tissue
repair function, the study found.14
The Vitamin D Connection

The other reason why summer may slash COVID-19 deaths is because summer equals
greater exposure to sunlight, which boosts vitamin D levels. There is strong scienti c
evidence vitamin D plays a central role in your immune response and your ability to ght
infections. It’s been shown in an analysis of 212 people with lab-con rmed COVID-19
that disease severity is associated with vitamin D levels, with lower levels linked to more
severe disease.15
A review published in the journal Nutrients also concluded that not only could vitamin D
be useful to reduce the risk of infection with COVID-19, but also could be helpful for
treatment:16
“Evidence supporting the role of vitamin D in reducing risk of COVID-19 includes

that the outbreak occurred in winter, a time when 25-hydroxyvitamin D
(25(OH)D) [vitamin D] concentrations are lowest; that the number of cases in
the Southern Hemisphere near the end of summer are low; that vitamin D
de ciency has been found to contribute to acute respiratory distress syndrome;
and that case-fatality rates increase with age and with chronic disease
comorbidity, both of which are associated with lower 25(OH)D concentration.”
If COVID-19 is seasonal, a resurgence is likely come fall, which is why the time for
optimizing your vitamin D level is now. To improve your immune function and lower your
risk of viral infections, you’ll want to raise your vitamin D to a level between 60
nanograms per milliliter (ng/mL) and 80 ng/mL by fall. In Europe, the measurements
you’re looking for are 150 nanomoles per liter (nmol/L) and 200 nmol/L.
Why Do so Many Experts Get It Wrong?
Harvard professor Lipsitch is among those who said COVID-19 would “probably not” go
away on its own in warmer weather. “The short answer is that while we may expect
modest declines in the contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2 in warmer, wetter weather and
perhaps with the closing of schools in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere, it
is not reasonable to expect these declines alone to slow transmission enough to make a
big dent,” he said.17
CDC’s provisional death counts appear to suggest otherwise, but some have cautioned
that COVID-19 is too new to be seasonal. In other words, because fewer people have
established immunity, a new virus has an advantage in that it can thrive even in less-
than-optimal conditions for a virus, i.e., the summer.
“Old viruses,” Lipsitch said, “which have been in the population for longer, operate on a
thinner margin — most individuals are immune, and they have to make do with
transmitting among the few who aren’t.”18
Likewise, a study in Science used a computer model to suggest that while COVID-19
may fall into seasonal patterns eventually, this may not occur until more people develop
immunity, noting that “susceptible supply” is limiting the role of climate in the early
COVID-19 pandemic.19
The drastic decline in COVID-19 deaths that occurred from April to May do suggest a
seasonal component, but what’s driving the drop is not completely understood. It’s likely
a combination of humidity, heat, human behaviors, vitamin D levels and, likely, other
aspects of sunlight exposure that are culminating in this decline.
With summer upon us in the U.S., you can use it to your advantage to spend time
outdoors, optimize your vitamin D levels and get sensible sun exposure, all of which can
help you support health and reduce your susceptibility to viral infections.
Sources and Reference
1 U.S. CDC June 3, 2020

2 The Journal of Infectious Diseases April 4, 2020
3 Yahoo February 7, 2020
4 Journal of Virology DOI: 10.1128/JVI.03544-13
5, 7, 17, 18 Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics
6 Nature volume 452, pages750–754(2008)
8, 9 medRxiv May 20, 2020
10, 11 Transboundary and Emerging Diseases May 21, 2020
12 Science Daily June 2, 2020
13 Environmental Health volume 9, Article number: 55 (2010)
14 PNAS May 28, 2019 116 (22) 10905-10910; rst published May 13, 2019
15 GrassrootsHealth, April 9, 2020
16 Nutrients April 2, 2020; 12(4): 988
19 Science. 2020 May 18;eabc2535. doi: 10.1126/science.abc2535. Online ahead of print

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6/18/2020 The Sun Killed COVID

The Sun Killed COVID

 A 1% decrease in humidity was predicted to increase the number of COVID-19 cases by

Many Respiratory Infections Decline in the Summer

What Makes Summer Less Conducive to Respiratory Infection?

Studies Suggest COVID-19 May Be Seasonal

“As a lipid-bound, enveloped virus with similar size characteristics to endemic

Humidity May Be a Major Factor

A study conducted in Sydney, Australia, found a similar connection between humidity

Professor Michael Ward, an epidemiologist in the Sydney School of Veterinary Science

The Vitamin D Connection

“Evidence supporting the role of vitamin D in reducing risk of COVID-19 includes

Why Do so Many Experts Get It Wrong?

Sources and Reference

1 U.S. CDC June 3, 2020

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