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29 June 2020
BUY with an upside of 54%; 5G being the mainstay of our investment Share Price Performance
thesis. We initiate coverage on JHM Consolidation (JHM) with an
OUTPERFORM recommendation and a target price of RM2.00, which is
based on FY21E PER of 22.2x, representing +1SD above its 3-year mean
considering its exciting prospects from 5G, electric vehicle (EV) charging
stations, horticulture venture and new automotive customers. Its aerospace
venture also offers enormous potential but will only see significant
contribution in 2022 and beyond. Furthermore, the transfer to Bursa
Malaysia’s Main Board will attract greater interest from institutional funds.
The stock is currently trading at FY21E PE of 14.5x; a steep but unwarranted
discount to UWC’s 26x (based on Bloomberg consensus).
Still a laggard as aerospace discount overplayed. Despite the recent KLCI 1,5488.1
share price rally, JHM remains one of the biggest laggards in the technology YTD KLCI chg -6.3%
sector (see exhibit 10) as investors weighed the impact from the ailing global YTD stock price chg -22.2%
automotive industry as well as discounting JHM’s aerospace venture angle.
However, we think these factors have been very much misconstrued. Firstly, Stock Information
notwithstanding the Covid-19 impact, JHM’s automotive segment is Shariah Compliant Yes
expected to register a strong 2HFY20 as (i) it recently secured several new Bloomberg Ticker JHMC MK Equity
customers including a car manufacturer; (ii) its LED modules have Market Cap (RM m) 734.8
penetrated commercial vehicles market (previously only passenger Shares Outstanding 556.7
vehicles), (iii) 2HCY19 was relatively low base due to the “2019 General 52-week range (H) 1.78
52-week range (L) 0.50
Motors strike”, (iv) global automotive sales are rebounding, and (v) LED
3-mth avg daily vol: 12,569,752
content in automobiles will continue to grow. Secondly, the aerospace Free Float 55%
segment only contributes c. 1% to group sales and we gather that global Beta 1.6
aircraft orders in general are not cancelled but only deferred.
Major Shareholders
Ramping up orders for 5G and EV charging station modules. In the
Tan Kim Seng 33.6%
industrial division (c.33% of revenue), we expect a ramp-up in orders from
Noble Matters Sdn Bhd 13.6%
5G signal test modules and EV charging station-related components. This CIMB Group Holdings Bhd 8.2%
renders JHM a good proxy for the global 5G infrastructure rollout and the
growing prevalence of EV charging stations. Besides these, JHM has also Summary Earnings Table
started supplying parts and modules used in a new horticulture project with FYE Dec (RM m) 2019A 2020E 2021E
an estimated contribution of c.USD1m in FY20E and is likely to increase Turnover 256.8 272.0 339.2
going forward. Overall, we project this division to grow at an exciting rate of EBITDA 51.7 54.3 79.3
24-36% in FY20E/FY21E. PBT 39.6 41.1 65.0
Net Profit (NP) 30.5 31.6 49.9
Firing on all cylinders for 2HFY20. After the latest quarter results Consensus (NP) n.a 30.0 41.9
(1QFY20), we believe that the worst is over for JHM as the group has Erng Revision n.a 0% 0%
returned to full workforce since end-April. We gather that there was no order EPS (sen) 5.5 5.7 9.0
cut by customers, and in fact, a huge backlog has to be fulfilled by July. From EPS growth (%) -14.2 3.6 58.1
the current bookings (3-6 months ahead), which is underpinned by pent-up NDPS (sen) 1.5 1.5 1.5
demand orders of automotive LED modules and 5G modules, we believe BVPS (RM) 0.36 0.43 0.51
2HFY20 performance is likely to come back with a vengeance. Price/BV (x) 3.6 3.0 2.6
PER (x) 24.1 22.9 14.5
Forecast FY20E and FY21E NP of RM31.6m and RM49.9m representing Gearing (x) 0.3 0.2 0.2
growth of 3.6% and 58.2%, respectively. ROA (%) 10.0 9.6 13.2
ROE (%) 15.1 13.1 17.7
Initiate with an OUTPERFORM recommendation and a Target Price of Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 1.2 1.2
RM2.00 based on FY21 PER of 22.2x (representing +1SD above its 3-year
mean). At current level, JHM is trading at FY21E PER of 14.5x; a steep but
unwarranted discount to UWC’s 26x.
Risks to our call include: (i) less aggressive orders from its key customer
which translates to lower-than-expected sales, (ii) delay in 5G rollout, and
(iii) higher-than-expected input costs.
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JHM Consolidation Initiation
29 June 2020
150% plant expansion for new prospects driven by 5G and electric vehicles
To ride on the multi-year growth potential from 5G rollout, JHM has started working with a US company that is in the forefront of 5G
development, specialising in signal test and measurement. The group is tasked with enclosure manufacturing and PCBA supply for
5G wireless test platforms that are used by the likes of Huawei, Ericson and Nokia which are the top three players that are shaping
the 5G standard.
The US customer has also requested for dedicated floor space to incorporate more processes and products within JHM’s facility in
order to shorten lead time. JHM, under its industrial division (Mace Instrumentation), is expanding its existing 80k sq ft plant by
150% to 200k sq ft. The expansion is slated to be completed by July 2020 and will be catered for new products relating to electric
vehicle (EV) charging stations.
The group will be manufacturing the charging discovery system (CDS) module that are used to ensure that infrastructure providers
for EV charging station and car manufacturers conform to the same charging protocol. CDS is able to emulate the properties of both
electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) and EV, allowing for standalone bi-directional testing. Furthermore, it also acts as a
middle-man test for inter-operability when both EVSE and EV are connected to it. This means that both EV infrastructure provider
and car manufacturers are able to work on a standardised charging protocol which allows for faster rollout and market availability.
Contribution from this US customer is currently at RM600k/mth and is expected to only increase from here on with bigger
significance in FY21E. A continuation of such momentum will most likely propel this US customer to become the third largest
contributor to JHM’s revenue.
Source: Volta
Source: bea.gov
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Exhibit 3a: China automotive sales (units) Exhibit 3b: China automotive sales (YoY growth)
Source: CAAM
Incentives such as zero-percent financing up to 7 years coupled with rebates are being offered to encourage more buying demand in
the US. Car manufactures are also moving towards more online sales to make up for lower traffic in physical dealership. This has in
turn spurred more purchases in the month of May, which we believe to be the beginning of a V-shape recovery.
Source:Carscoops
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Source: Galvatek
With most of the aircraft backlogs coming from Asia, UACE needed a solution to reduce lead time. Upon signing of the MSA, the
group will be able to provide surface treatment service which will spare UACE the trip of shipping back products to Romania for
surface treatment. We expect to see a very gradual ramp-up in FY21E with more meaningful contribution to take place in FY22E-
FY23E. Meanwhile, the group is also in preliminary discussion with another player that is 3-4x larger than UACE for potential
collaboration. There are only five other players in the world like UACE that are in the approved vendor list for aero-structure
manufacturing. Being offered the opportunity to venture into the aerospace segment speaks a great deal about JHM’s technical
capabilities and quality control.
To accommodate the large sized components, the surface treatment dipping pool has to be roughly 6 meters in width and 20 meters
in length. JHM has 9 acres of vacant land in Sungai Petani, Kedah which will be purposed for the anodizing plant. While the capex
for the aerospace segment has yet to be finalised, we expect an amount around RM50m-RM60m which will be carried out in
phases.
UACE has three manufacturing facilities in the U.S. and Europe which specialise in engineered product, including cast billet, hard
alloy extrusion, and finished component. UACE has an in-house R&D group which can develop advanced alloys customised for
specific applications. Leveraging on its strength in the aerospace aluminium extrusion market, UACE established a forward-
integrated manufacturing plant in Romania which allows them to meet current market demands efficiency and provide value to end
customers by integrating a full range of capability such as billet casting, extrusion, machining, surface treatment, kitting, and
assembly.
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Resumption of tourism
Share price of aviation and airplane manufacturers has recently rebounded sharply from the lows on expectation of pent-up demand
post Covid-19, spurred by the resumption of tourism. Local authorities globally are also providing incentives such as subsidised
hotels, restaurants, transport and attractions to resuscitate the tourism industry. Updated schedules by Diio also indicated that that
capacity for international routes has come off the bottom and is rising gradually, albeit slower than domestic traffic.
As of May 2020, backlogs of aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing shows 7,621 and 5,301 units respectively. While there is
concern of order cancellation by airlines, our channel checks indicated that it may most likely result in order deferment instead of
cancellation. Based on 2019 production level, the number of Airbus and Boeing aircrafts to be built and delivered represents visibility
of 8.8 years and 6.6 years, respectively.
There is no better time for JHM to take the first leap into this segment. Having an early exposure into the industry when it is at its
bottom means JHM will be able to ride the entire recovery rally, providing another wave of multi-year growth.
Exhibit 6a: Airline International Seats (YoY Change %) Exhibit 6b: Aircraft backlog
Horticulture
Thanks to JHM’s proficiency in LEDs, the group together with the support of the Singaporean government have collaborated on a
horticulture project. The project is currently in its infancy and is estimated to contribute c.USD1m to FY20E sales. While contribution
is small, we believe that the prospects could be bright over the long run as horticulture will likely replace open farming in time to
come.
Horticulture helps to combat the inevitable problems of open farming, such as deteriorating climate and scarce land which results in
undesirable quality. With a controlled atmosphere coupled with LEDs that emulate the properties of sunlight, horticulture will allow
for crops to be produced with consistent quality and more efficient use of natural resources. This in turn contributes to the upward
trends in sustainability and green energy.
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Source: ledsmagazine
Financial performance
The group has logged an impressive revenue growth, representing a 5-year CAGR of 29% from FY14 to FY19. This was supported
by broad adoption and acceptance of improved lightings as an essential feature for cars within the automotive LED lighting industry.
Net profit margin also expanded from a low of 5% in FY15 to 12% in FY18 thanks to the growth of advance lighting applications with
newly added technological features and design breakthroughs. The slight dip in FY19 revenue was due to the General Motors strike
which involved 48,000 employees. This led to production halt in 30 General Motors’ factories across the US and in turn, lower
loading volume to JHM. Net profit margin for FY19 also edged lower due to higher tax as some of its capital allowance have expired.
Going forward, we expect the net margin to stabilise around mid-teens level.
In terms of segmental breakdown, the group is highly involved in the automotive market which consists of 70% of FY18 group
revenue while the industrial segment stands at 28%. Comparatively, the contribution from the automotive market shrank to 66% in
FY19 when the group secured a US customer which boosted the industrial segment to 33%. Sales from the aerospace segment is
still minimal and will only see gradual ramp-up in FY21E with more meaningful contributions in FY22E-FY23E, poised to take off with
the recovery rally of the tourism sector.
We are forecasting a slight revenue growth of 5.9% in FY20E as we expect roaring US automotive sales in the 2HFY20 to offset the
negative impact of MCO during the 1HFY20. Beyond that, we are looking at a 24.7% growth for FY21E backed by the continuity of
strong automotive sale coupled with the exiting prospects of 5G and EVs.
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Source: Company
Source: Company
Valuation
We initiate coverage on JHM Consolidation with an OUTPERFORM recommendation and a target price of RM2.00, which is based
on FY21E PER of 22.2x, representing +1SD above its 3-year mean considering exciting prospects from 5G, electric vehicle (EV)
charging stations, horticulture venture and new automotive customers. Its aerospace venture also offers enormous potential but will
only see significant contribution in 2022 and beyond. The stock is currently trading at FY21E PER of 14.5x; a steep but unwarranted
discount to UWC’s 26x (based on Bloomberg consensus).
Despite the recent share price rally, JHM remains one of the biggest laggards in the technology sector (see exhibit 10) as investors
weighed the impact from the ailing global automotive industry as well as discounting JHM’s aerospace venture angle. However, we
think these factors have been very much misconstrued. Firstly, notwithstanding the Covid-19 impact, JHM’s automotive segment is
expected to register a strong 2HFY20 as (i) it recently secured several new customers including a car manufacturer; (ii) its LED
modules have penetrated commercial vehicles market (previously only passenger vehicles), (iii) 2HCY19 was relatively low base
due to the “2019 General Motors strike”, (iv) global automotive sales are rebounding, and (v) LED content in automobiles will
continue to grow. Secondly, the aerospace segment only contributes 1% to group sales and we gather that global aircraft orders in
general are not cancelled but only deferred.
Exhibit 10: JHM the biggest laggard in Tech sector
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Risk
Possible risks to the company are: (i) lower-than-expected orders from key automotive customers due to possible second wave of
Covid-19 which will curtail consumer spending and factory production, (ii) delay in 5G rollout owing to the long-standing trade spat
between US and China which limits China’s access to global wafer fabrication house, (iii) higher-than-expected input cost leading to
margin compression, and (iv) drag from the aerospace segment due to prolonged slowdown in the tourism sector.
While these concerns are valid, we believe the market has priced in most of the negatives. In fact, the sell-down on fears of declining
automotive sales and earnings drag from aerospace segment are overdone, in our opinion. With China as a leading indicator, we
expect the automotive sales in the US to roar back as factories reopen, followed by a strong pickup in sales. As for the aerospace
segment, current contribution is only c.1% of group sales and having a foothold in the aerospace segment while tourism is at its
bottom simply means that JHM is poised to ride the entire recovery wave, leading to a multi-year growth prospect.
Company Background
JHM was incorporated in Malaysia on 26 March 2005 and listed on the Ace Market on 13 July 2006. JHM is principally an
investment holding company with six subsidiaries, namely
i. Morrissey Technology Sdn. Bhd.
ii. Morrissey Assembly Solution Sdn. Bhd.
iii. JH Morrissey Sdn. Bhd.
iv. Morrissey Aerosystems Sdn. Bhd.
v. Morrissey Integrated Dynamics Sdn. Bhd.
vi. Mace Instrumentation Sdn. Bhd.
JHM is primarily involved in the manufacturing and assembly of surface mount technology and PCBA assembly for LED lighting
modules. The group is one of the main Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) providers in Malaysia providing one-stop solutions
from design, fabrication of tooling to final assembly and test of LED lighting modules. Most of the LED lighting modules are catered
for the well-known Tier-1 automotive manufacturers within the North America Free Trade Agreement (“NAFTA”) countries.
The group has also initiated a strategic business dealing with UACE into aerospace mechanical parts manufacturing and machining.
For the initial phase, the group will focus on high precision, 5-Axis based Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machining for piece
part manufacturing in its dedicated focus-facility that is compliant to the aerospace AS9100D requirements.
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Source: Company
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Source: Company
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Management profile
1. Dato’ Tan King Seng, was appointed to the Board on 13 April 2006 and is presently the Executive Director/Group Chief
Executive Officer of the Company. He graduated with a Bachelor of Science Degree in Mechanical Engineering from
National Cheng Kung University of Taiwan in 1983. Dato’ Tan started his career as an engineer with Intel Technology Sdn.
Bhd. In 1984, and thereafter in Hewlett Packard Sdn. Bhd. in 1989. Prior to starting his own business in 1995, he was a
Senior Production Engineer in charge of Optoelectronic Production in Hewlett Packard Sdn. Bhd.
2. Koh Yew Wah, was appointed to the Board on 1 June 2017 and is presently the Executive Director/Chief Operating
Officer of the Company, overseeing the overall business and operations of JHM’s subsidiaries. He obtained his Bachelor’s
degree in Mechanical Engineering from The University of Southwestern Louisiana, Louisiana, USA in 1989. He
subsequently earned his Master of Business Administration from Universiti Sains Malaysia in 1995. Mr. Koh started his
technical and management career in both multinational and local OEM corporations. He ventured into the Electronic
Manufacturing Services industry and had held various senior management level positions in EMS companies. He was a
Vice President of Operations of a Fortune 500 EMS company prior to joining the Company.
3. Low Soo Kim, was appointed as Finance Manager of the Company on 30 November 2015. She graduated with a
Bachelor of Accounting (Hons) from University of Malaya in 2002 and is a member of the Malaysian Institute of
Accountants. She started her career in the tax division of Ernst & Young Tax Consultants Sdn. Bhd. and left the company
in January 2009 when she held the position of Assistant Tax Manager. She joined a manufacturing company, a wholly
owned subsidiary of a Public Listed Company (“PLC”) as Accounts/ Finance Manager in year 2009 and was promoted to
Group Financial Controller of the PLC in year 2013. She gained experience in the areas of financial management, budget
planning, preparation of management accounts and financial reports, plantation management and credit controls of the
Group. She currently holds the position of Deputy Finance Director in the Company and is in charge of Group’s financial
reporting and corporate planning
Source: Company
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Stock Recommendations
Sector Recommendations***
***Sector recommendations are defined based on market capitalisation weighted average expected total
return for stocks under our coverage.
This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not
make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the
specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may read this document. This
document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees.
Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document
or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad and its associates, their directors, and/or
employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein from time to time in the open market or
otherwise, and may receive brokerage fees or act as principal or agent in dealings with respect to these companies.
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