CATALOG OF MODELS

Whether you know it or not, you deal with

models every day. Your weather forecast
comes from a meteorological model,
usually several. Mannequins are used to
display how fashions may look on you.
Blueprints are drawn models of objects or
structures to be built. Maps are models of
the earth’s terrain. Examples are
everywhere.
Models are representations of things,
usually an ideal, a standard, or something
desired. They can be true representations,
approximate (or at least as good as practicable), or simplified, even cartoonish
compared to what they represent. They can be about the same size, bigger, or most
typically, smaller, whatever makes them easiest to manipulate. They can represent:
• Physical objects that can be seen and touched
• Processes that can be watched
• Behaviors that can be observed
• Conditions that can be monitored
• Opinions that can be surveyed.
The models themselves do not have to be physical objects. They can be written, drawn,
or consist of mathematical equations or computer programming. In fact, using equations
and computer code can be much more flexible and less expensive than building a
physical model.

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CLASSIFICATION OF MODELS
There are many ways that models are classified, so this catalog isn’t unique. The
models may be described with different terms or broken out to greater levels of detail.
Furthermore, you can also create hybrid models. Examples include mash-ups of
analytical and stochastic components used to analyze phenomena such as climate
change and subatomic particle physics. Nevertheless, the catalog should give you some
ideas for where you might start to develop your own model.
PHYSICAL MODELS
Your first exposure to a model was probably a physical model like a baby pacifier or a
plush animal, and later, a doll or a toy car. From then, you’ve seen many more – from
ant farms to anatomical models in school. You probably even built your own models
with Legos, plastic model kits, or even a Halloween costume. They are all
representations of something else.

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Physical models aren’t used often for advanced applications because they are difficult
and expensive to build and calibrate to a realistic experience. Flight simulators,
hydrographic models of river systems, and reef aquariums are well known examples.

CONCEPTUAL MODELS
Models can also be expressed in words
and pictures. These are used in virtually all
fields to convey mental images of some
mechanism, process, or other
phenomenon that was or will be created.
Blueprints, flow diagrams, geologic fence
diagrams, anatomical diagrams are all
conceptual models. So are the textual
descriptions that go with them. In fact, you
should always start with a simple text
model before you embark on building a
complex physical or mathematical model.
MATHEMATICAL AND COMPUTER
MODELS

THEORETICAL MODELS
Theoretical models are based on scientific
laws and mathematical derivations. Both
theoretical models and deterministic
empirical models provide solutions that
presume that there is no uncertainty. These
solutions are termed exact (which does not
necessarily imply correct). There is a single
solution for given inputs.

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ANALYTICAL MODELS
Analytical models are mathematical equations derived from scientific laws that produce
exact solutions that apply everywhere. For example, F (force) = M (mass) times A
(acceleration) and E(energy) = m (mass) times c2 (speed of light squared) are analytical
models. Probably, most concepts in classical physics can be modeled analytically.
NUMERICAL MODELS
Numerical models are mathematical equations that have a time parameter. Numerical
models are solved repeatedly, usually on a grid, to obtain solutions over time. This is
sometimes called a Dynamic Model (as opposed to a Static Model) because it describes
time-varying relationships.
EMPIRICAL MODELS
Empirical models can be deterministic, probabilistic, stochastic, or sometimes, a hybrid
of the three. They are developed for specific situations from measured data. Empirical
models differ from theoretical models in that the model is not necessarily fixed for all
instances of its use. There may be multiple reasonable empirical models that can apply
to a given situation.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS
Deterministic empirical models presume that a mathematical relationship exists
between two or more measurable phenomena (as do theoretical models) that will allow
the phenomena to be modeled without uncertainty (or at least, not much uncertainty, so
that it can be ignored) under a given set of conditions. The difference is that the
relationship isn’t unique or proven. There are usually assumptions. Biological growth
and groundwater flow models are examples of deterministic empirical models
PROBABILITY MODELS
Probability models are based on a set of events or conditions all occurring at once. In
probability, it is called an intersection of events. Probability models are multiplicative
because that is how intersection probabilities are combined. The most famous example
of a probability model is the Drake equation, a summary of the factors affecting the
likelihood that we might detect radio-communication from intelligent extraterrestrial life
STOCHASTIC MODELS
Stochastic empirical models presume that
changes in a phenomenon have a random
component. The random component
allows stochastic empirical models to
provide solutions that incorporate
uncertainty into the analysis. Stochastic
models include lottery picks, weather, and
many problems in the behavioral,
economic, and business disciplines that
are analyzed with statistical models.

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COMPARISON MODELS
In statistical comparison models, the dependent variable is a grouping-scale variable
(one measured on a nominal scale). The independent variable can be either grouping,
continuous, or both. Simple hypothesis tests include:
• γ2 tests that analyze cell frequencies on one or more grouping variables, and
• t-tests and z-tests that analyze independent variable means in two or fewer
groups of a grouping variable.
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) models
compare independent variable means for
two or more groups of a dependent
grouping variable. Analysis of Covariance
(ANCOVA) models compare independent
variable means for two or more groups of a
dependent grouping variable while
controlling for one or more continuous
variables. Multivariate ANOVA and
ANCOVA compare two or more dependent
variables using multiple independent
variables. There are many more types of
ANOVA model designs.
CLASSIFICATION MODELS
Classification and identification models also analyze groups.
Clustering models identify groups of similar cases based on continuous-scale variables.
There need be no prior knowledge or expectation about the nature of the groups. There
are several types of cluster analysis, including hierarchical clustering, K-Means
clustering, two-step clustering, and block clustering. Often, the clusters or segments that
are used as inputs to subsequent analyses. Clustering models are also known as
segmentation models.
Clustering models do not have a nominal-
scale dependent variable, but most
classification models
do. Discriminant analysis models have a
nominal-scale dependent variable and one
or more continuous-scale independent
variables. They are usually used to explain
why the groups are different, based on the
independent variables, so they often follow
a cluster analysis. Logistic regression is
analogous to linear regression but is
based on a non-linear model and a binary or ordinal dependent variable instead of a
continuous-scale variable. Often, models for calculating probabilities use a binary (0 or
1) dependent variable with logistic regression.

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There are many analyses that produce decision trees, which look a bit like organization
charts. C&R (Classification and Regression Trees) split categorical dependent variables
into its groups based in continuous or categorical-scale independent variables. All splits
are binary. CHAID (Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detector) generates decision trees
that can have more than two branches at a split. A Random Forest consists of a
collection of simple tree predictors.
EXPLANATION MODELS
Explanation models aim to explain associations within or between sets of variables.
With explanation models, you select enough variables to address all the theoretical
aspects of the phenomenon, even to the point of having some redundancy. As you build
the model, you discover which variables
are extraneous and can be eliminated.
Factor Analysis (FA) and Principal
Components Analysis (PCA) are used to
explore associations in a set of variables
where there is no distinction between
dependent and independent variables. The
two types of statistical analysis:
• Create new metrics, called factors or
components, which explain almost the
same amount of variation as the original
variables.
• Create fewer factors/components than
the original variables so further analysis is simplified.
• Require that the new factors/components be interpreted in terms of the original
variables, but they often make more conceptual sense so subsequent analyses
are more intuitive.
• Produce factors/components that are statistically independent (uncorrelated) so
they can be used in regression models to determine how important each is in
explaining a dependent variable.
Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is like PCA only there are two sets of variables.
Pairs of components, one from each group, are created that explain independent
aspects of the dataset.
Regression analysis is also used to build explanation models. In particular, regression
using principle components as independent variables is popular because the
components are uncorrelated and not subject to multicollinearity.

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PREDICTION MODELS
Some models are created to predict new
values of a dependent variable
or forecast future values of a time-
dependent variable. To be useful, a
prediction model must use prediction
variables that cost less to generate than
the prediction is worth. So the predictor
variables and their scales must be
relatively inexpensive and easy to create
or obtain. In prediction models, accuracy
tends to come easy while precision is
elusive. Prediction models usually keep
only the variables that work best in making a prediction, and they may not necessarily
make a lot of conceptual sense.
Regression is the most commonly used technique for creating prediction
models. Transformations are used frequently. If a model includes one or
more lagged values of the dependent variable among its predictors, it is called
an autoregressive model.
Neural Networks is a predictive modeling technique inspired by the way biological
nervous systems process information. The technique involves interconnected nodes or
layers that apply predictor variables in different ways, linear and nonlinear, to all or
some of the dependent variable values. Unlike most modeling techniques, neural
networks can’t be articulated so they are not useful for explanation purposes.
PICKING THE RIGHT MODEL
There are many ways to model a phenomenon. Experience helps you to judge which
model might be most appropriate for the situation. If you need some guidance, follow
these steps.
• Step 1 – Start at top of the Catalog of
Models figure. Decide whether you want to
create a physical, mathematical, or
conceptual model. Whichever you choose,
start by creating a brief conceptual model
so you have a mental picture of what your
ultimate goal is and can plan for how to get
there. If your goal is a physical or full-
blown conceptual model, do the research
you’ll need to identify appropriate materials
and formats. But this blog is about mathematical models, so let’s start there
• Step 2 – If you want to select a type of mathematical model, start on the second
line of the Catalog of Models figure and decide whether your phenomenon fits
best with a theoretical or an empirical approach. If there are scientific or
mathematical laws that apply to your phenomenon, you’ll probably want to start
with some type of theoretical model. If there is a component of time, particularly
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 changes over time periods, you’ll probably want to try developing a numerical
model. Otherwise, if a single solution is appropriate, try an analytical model.
• Step 3 – If your phenomenon is more likely to require data collection and analysis
to model, you’ll need an empirical model. An empirical model can be
probabilistic, deterministic, or stochastic. Probability models are great tools for
thought experiments. There are no wrong answers, only incomplete ones.
Deterministic models are more of a challenge. There needs to be some
foundation of science (natural, physical, environmental, behavioral, or other
discipline), engineering, business rules, or other guidelines for what should go
into the model. More often than not, deterministic models are overly complicated
because there is no way to distinguish between components that are major
factors versus those that are relatively inconsequential to the overall results. Both
Probability and Deterministic models are often developed through panels of
experts using some form of Delphi process.
• Step 4 – If you need to develop a stochastic (statistical) model, go here to pick
the right tool for the job.
• Step 5 – Consider adding hybrid elements. Don’t feel constrained to only one
type of component in building your model. For instance, maybe your statistical
model would benefit from having deterministic, probability, or other types of terms
in it. Calibrate your deterministic model using regression or another statistical
method. Be creative.

Stats with Cats

November 5, 2017