Developing automated energy

management tools

Carlos Martinez-Ortiz, Darren Pearson, Martin Beck,

Nigel Barlow, and Pieter De Wilde
C3 Resources Ltd and Plymouth University

carlos.martinez-ortiz@plymouth.ac.uk
CIBSE ASHRAE Technical Symposium
Imperial College, London UK
18th and 19th April 2012
Outline
 Overview M&T
 High frequency data
 High frequency models
 SVM’s
 Examples
 Office
 Eden Project
 Comparison with existing
approach
Overview

Weather External drivers

Boiler controls, Internal drivers Consumption

lighting,

Metering

Estimate

f(x,)=?
High frequency data
 Hourly data collection
 Mandatory
 Advantages
 Improve building vision
 Challenges
 New analysis techniques
High frequency data
 The challenge: develop
new analysis techniques
 Scalable
 Reliable
 Robust
High frequency modelling
 Successful with no driving
factors
 Forward prediction
models
 Inverse prediction models
(weekly)
 Machine learning
Support Vector Machines
 Similar to Neural Nets
 Supervised learning –
learning from data
 Successfully used in other
domains
Internal &
External Predicted
Drivers Consumption
Examples
 Office block
 6 weeks training
 Air temperature
Examples
 Eden Project
 Unique construction
 Driving factors
 Air Temperature
 Solar irradiance
 Previous 6 hours data
Examples
Comparing with standard methods
 Weekly – most commonly
used
 How do daily and hourly
compare?

MAPE
Linear regression (OAT & SI) 8.8%
SVM (OAT & SI) 8.6%
SVM (OAT & SI w/6hr previous) 6.1%
Applications
 Automatic detection of
changes in performance
 Early fault detection
 Real time analysis
 Verifying saving initiatives
 Short term baseline
development
Conclusion
 New opportunities rising
from high resolution data.
 SVM – modelling at high
resolution.
 Improvement over
traditional M&T