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wkh prgho*v svhxgr0U2 / qrqh ri wkh lqglylgxdo yduldeohv vljqlfdqwo| lpsdfwv
wkh lqyhvwphqw ghflvlrq1

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wr lqyhvwljdwlqj rqo| wkh vhfrqg vwdjh1

53
Wdeoh := Iluvw0Vwdjh Lqyhvwphqw Ghflvlrq= Elqrpldo Orjlw Prgho

+4, +5, +6, +7, +8, +9,


NuwvxPhp 31476 314<< 315<; 316<8f 3173<f 31735f
+314<<, +31535, +31545, +31556, +3155:, +31556,
IlupDjh 3134;d 1349e 3134<d 31354d 31354d 31353e
+3133:, +3133:, +3133:, +3133;, +3133;, +3133;,
PnwFds 041<3h06f 041;<h06f 04199h06 051:8h06e 051:5h06f 051<5h06e
+4136h06, +4139h06, +4144h06, +4169h06, +416;h06, +4168h06,
Vdohv 61;<3d
+31965,
Vl}h 71594d 71584d 61:43d 61:43d 61:83d
+31999, +319<;, 319;8 +319;;, +3139<,
U)G 0416<; 0413< 0318;3 061665 061558 0618;5
+51:6;, +51:67, +51;5<, +61:76, +61:<4, +61:69,
H{sruw( 031335 031334 :1<7h07 ;16<:h07 ;1;;h07 81:7h07
+31335, +31335, +31335, +31335, +31335, +31335,
JGS 0;1:8h0: 06179h0:
+5133h0:, +7173h0:,
Srs 0314:3e
+313:6,
HfrqSrwhqwldo 6137h06
+31339,
H{fkUdwh 31334 07193h07 031335 513<h07
+31334, +31339, +31339, +31339,
Wd{Udwhv 1051945 31;94 617;8 41::9
+51;;h07, +51:;5, +51;;9, +51;59,
KrvwGxpp| \HV \HV \HV

Frqvwdqw 0317<: 0316;7 31497 051865f 041;<4 05197<f


+31686, +168<, +3175<, +4163<, +4169<, +4183<,
Rev1 :55 :55 :55 :55 :55 :55
OU whvw 455139 463169 4:51<4 4961:5 4:<1:4 4951<<
Sure A "5 31333 31333 31333 31333 31333 31333
Svhxgr U5 31489 3149: 31554 3155; 31584 3155;

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uhvshfwlyho|1

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frxqwhu wr rxu wkhruhwlfdo suhglfwlrqv1 D srvvleoh h{sodqdwlrq iru wklv uhvxow
lv wkdw rxu vdpsoh ri h{sruwhuv lv eldvhg1 Li wkh vxqn frvw lqyroyhg lq hv0
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h{sruwlqj li wkh pdunhw lv elj hqrxjk wr mxvwli| wklv frvw/ dqg lq wkh surfhvv
ljqruh h{sruwv wr vpdoohu pdunhwv kdqgohg e| lqghshqghqw glvwulexwruv1 Dq

54
lqglfdwlrq wkdw wklv pd| eh wuxh lv wkdw wkh dyhujh h{sruwhu lq rxu vdpsoh
kdv hvwdeolvkhg ohvv wkdq 5 d!oldwhv +dv qrwhg lq Wdeoh 4,/ zlwk d phgldq ri
4 hvwdeolvkhg d!oldwh1 D pdmrulw| ri wkh vlqjoh0d!oldwh h{sruwhuv fkrvh wkh
XN +rqh ri wkh odujhvw pdunhwv lq wkh vdpsoh, wr krvw wkhlu zkrohvdoh2uhwdlo
glvwulexwlrq d!oldwhv/ zkloh d pdmrulw| ri pxowlsoh0d!oldwh h{sruwhuv kdyh dw
ohdvw 4 ri wkhlu zkrohvdoh2uhwdlo d!oldwhv orfdwhg wkhuh +zlwk wkh rwkhu prvw
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vljqlfdqwo| dhfw wkh suhylrxv uhvxowv/ h{fhsw wkdw qrz zh vhh wkdw nhluhwvx
phpehuvkls lv vljqlfdqw dw wkh 43( ohyho1 Lq froxpq +8,/ zh uhsodfh JGS
zlwk krvw frxqwu| srsxodwlrq +Srs, dv d phdvxuh ri krvw0pdunhw vl}h/ dqg
lw dovr lqglfdwhv d qhjdwlyh fruuhodwlrq zlwk pdunhw vl}h dqg pdqxidfwxulqj
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ehwzhhq JGS dqg Srs ri 31;;71
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vhuylfh rwkhu krvw pdunhwv/ froxpq +9, xvhv d Kduulv0w|sh +4<87, hfrqrplf
srwhqwldo yduldeoh wr phdvxuh pdunhw vl}h1 Wkh lqfoxvlrq ri wklv yduldeoh/
qrw sdluzlvh fruuhodwhg zlwk hlwkhu JGS dqg Srs/ |lhogv d srvlwlyh +doehlw
lqvljqlfdqw, frh!flhqw/ zklfk grhv vxssruw rxu wkhruhwlfdo iudphzrun1

915 Vwdjh 5= Wkh Fkrlfh ri Lqyhvwphqw Prgh


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wkh vdpsoh grzq wr rqo| wkh hvwdeolvkhg pdqxidfwxulqj d!oldwhv +Lqyvw@4 ,1
Lqlwldo hvwlpdwhv duh wkurxjk d vwdqgdug pxowlqrpldo orjlw vshflfdwlrq/ lq
zklfk wkh ghshqghqw yduldeoh RzqW|sh wdnhv vhsdudwh ydoxhv ghshqglqj xsrq
zkhwkhu wkh pdqxidfwxulqj d!oldwh zdv hvwdeolvkhg wkurxjk P)D/ juhhqhog
lqyhvwphqw/ ru mrlqw yhqwxuh1
Wdeoh ; surylghv wkh hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv1 Wkh juhhqhog lqyhvwphqw dowhuq0
dwlyh vhuyhv dv wkh edvh fdwhjru| iru wkhvh frpsdulvrqv> dv d uhvxow/ wkh frhi0
flhqw hvwlpdwhv lq wkh P)D dqg MY froxpqv lqglfdwh d uhodwlyh lqfuhdvh ru
ghfuhdvh lq wkh olnholkrrg ri wkdw rzqhuvkls prgh ehlqj fkrvhq dv frpsduhg

55
wr d juhhqhog lqyhvwphqw1
Froxpq +4, vkrzv wkh sdudphwhu hvwlpdwhv zkhq wkh prgho lv uhvwulfwhg
wr wkh up0vshflf fkdudfwhulvwlfv1 Wkhvh uhvxowv vxssruw wkh prgho*v jhqhudo
suhglfwlrq wkdw kljkhu up dvvhwv ohdg wr d juhdwhu olnholkrrg ri juhhqhog
lqyhvwphqw1 Vpdoohu upv duh vljqlfdqwo| pruh olnho| wr hqwhu yld hlwkhu
P)D dqg2ru MY wkdq wkurxjk juhhqhog lqyhvwphqw/ zlwk wkh frh!flhqwv
rq Vl}h qhjdwlyh dqg vljqlfdqw dw wkh 4( ohyho1 Lq dgglwlrq/ upv zlwk orzhu
h{sruw vdohv shufhqwdjhv duh pruh olnho| wr lqyhvw yld MY wkdq juhhqhog/
dowkrxjk lw grhv qrw dhfw wkh juhhqhog0P)D ghflvlrq1 Suhylrxv pdqxidf0
wxulqj h{shulhqfh lq wkh vdpsoh frxqwulhv ohdgv wr d vljqlfdqw lqfuhdvh lq
P)D lqyhvwphqwv dv frpsduhg wr juhhqhog/ dowkrxjk wklv h{shulhqfh lv qrw
qhfhvvdulo| jdlqhg iurp dq| rqh sduwlfxodu krvw frxqwu|1
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flf gxpp| yduldeoh wr wkh prgho1 Zkloh wkh up0vshflf fkdudfwhulvwlfv
Vl}h/ SuhyIGLVdpsoh/ dqg H{sruw( pdlqwdlq wkhlu suhylrxv vljqlfdqfh/ suh0
ylrxv lqyhvwphqw h{shulhqfh lq d sduwlfxodu krvw +SuhyIGLKrvw, lv vkrzq wr
lqfuhdvh wkh olnholkrrg ri d ixwxuh MY lqyhvwphqw1 Wklv vxjjhvwv wkdw lqfuhdvhg
orfdo pdunhw nqrzohgjh doorzv upv juhdwhu delolw| wr hvwdeolvk vxffhvvixo
mrlqw yhqwxuhv1 Lq dgglwlrq/ d kljkhu \hq2orfdo fxuuhqf| h{fkdqjh udwh +H{0
fkUdwh, vhuyhv wr ghwhu P)D lqyhvwphqw uhodwlyh wr juhhqhog lqyhvwphqw1
Wklv vxjjhvwv wkdw dv krvw0pdunhw dvvhwv ehfrph pruh frvwo| wr wkh Mdsdq0
hvh lqyhvwru/ lwv delolw| wr dftxluh wkhvh dvvhwv ghfuhdvhv/ uhgxflqj lwv delolw|
wr lqyhvw yld P)D1 Wkh yduldeoh wkdw phdvxuhv wkh krvw*v srwhqwldo P)D0
wdujhw upv/ KrvwFds/ grhv qrw vljqlfdqwo| lq xhqfh wkh rzqhuvkls fkrlfh
ghflvlrq1 D vlplodu uhjuhvvlrq/ uhsodflqj JGS zlwk Srs dv d phdvxuh ri krvw
pdunhw vl}h/ |lhogv vlplodu txdolwdwlyh uhvxowv1

56
Wdeoh ;= Vhfrqg0Vwdjh Lqyhvwphqw Ghflvlrq= Pxowlqrpldo Orjlw
Prgho

+4, +5, +6,


P)D MY P)D MY P)D MY
NuwvxPhp 31348 314:9 3133; 31569 31338 31554
+315;6, +3154;, +315<;, +3156<, +315<<, +31573,
IlupDjh 31344 31338 31343 3133: 31343 133<
+3133;, +31339, +3133;, +31339, +3133;, +31339,
PnwFds 8133h07 04164h07 5183h07 0715<h07 517<h07 06137h07
+416;h06, +4137h06, +417:h06, +4157h06, +4178h06, +415<h06,
Vl}h 031;43d 031576d 03133:d 051<7h03:f 0313:9d 03135<f
+31358, +31465, +31358, +31348, +31358, +31349,
U)G 061::7 5169< 051:<6 51;39 051974 6148;
+71:<;, +51<34, +8137;, +613<<, +71<96, +6139;,
H{sruw( 31335 031346e 31335 031347e 31335 031349d
+31336, +31338, +31335, +31339, +31336, +31339,
SuhyIGLVdpsoh 314<9d 03136: 314<8d 03138; 314<3d 03137:
+31383, +3137:, +31388, +31385, +31388, +31385,
SuhyIGLKrvw 0313;< 31574 031464 31659f 03144: 31664f
+31559, +3149;, +31576, +314;4, +31574, +314;4,
JGS 61<3h07 06186h07
+;165h07, +915:h07,
HfrqSrwhqwldo 31338 03134:e
+31343, +3133;,
H{fkUdwh 031346f 31339 013345f 31338
+3133:, +31338, +3133:, +31338,
KrvwFds 0618<h07 9166h07 061<3h07 4139h06e
+816<h07, +7138h07, +9147h07, +7184h06,
Wd{Udwhv 061993 041<53 07136< 0615<5
+61<6<, +61333, +61;74, +51<84,
KrvwGxpp| \HV \HV \HV \HV

Frqvwdqw 0417;:d 0314:< 0513<;e 03173: 0518;7f 41645


+31833, +316<5, +4135<, +31::9, +4174:, +413;7,
Rev1 886 884 884
OU whvw 8418; 4491<6 4541;5
Sure A "5 31333 31333 31333
Svhxgr U5 31435 31436 31443

Qrwhv= Edvh fdvh lv Juhhqhog Lqyhvwphqw1 Vwdqgdug huuruv lq sduhqwkhvlv1 @ /K /S 0vljqlfdqw


dw wkh 4(/ 8( dqg 43(0ohyhov/ uhvshfwlyho|1

Ilqdoo|/ froxpq +6, suhvhqwv frh!flhqw hvwlpdwhv zkhq zh phdvxuh krvw0


pdunhw vl}h zlwk HfrqSrwhqwldo1 Wklv fkdqjh grhv qrw dhfw rxu suhylrxv

57
uhvxowv iru wkh up0vshflf lq xhqfhv/ dv wkh frh!flhqwv rq Vl}h/ SuhyI0
GLVdpsoh/ SuhyIGLKrvw/ dqg H{sruw( doo pdlqwdlq wkhlu suhylrxv vljqv dqg
vljqlfdqfh ohyhov1 Wkh \hq2orfdo fxuuhqf| h{fkdqjh udwh frqwlqxhv wr lq x0
hqfh wkh P)D ghflvlrq/ dqg qrz KrvwFds srvwlyho| lq xhqfhv MY irupdwlrq/
dowkrxjk lw frqwlqxhv wr qrw vljqlfdqwo| lpsdfw P)D irupdwlrq1 Ilqdoo|/
wkh frh!flhqw rq HfrqSrwhqwldo lv qhjdwlyh dqg vljqlfdqw/ lqglfdwlqj wkdw
juhhqhog lqyhvwphqw lv suhihuuhg wr mrlqw yhqwxuhv lq frxqwulhv zlwk odujhu
hfrqrplf srwhqwldo1
D pdmru dvvxpswlrq ri wkh pxowlqrpldo orjlw prgho lv wkh lqghshqghqfh
ri luuhohydqw dowhuqdwlyhv +LLD,/ zklfk phdqv wkdw wkh uhodwlyh suredelolwlhv ri
vhohfwlqj d jlyhq dowhuqdwlyh uhpdlq frqvwdqw uhjdugohvv ri zklfk dowhuqdwlyhv
duh lqfoxghg lq wkh prgho1 Zh iroorz Kdxvpdq dqg PfIdgghq +4<;7, dqg
whvw wkh LLD dvvxpswlrq/ qglqj wkdw zh duh xqdeoh wr uhmhfw wkh k|srwkhvlv
wkdw wkh glhuhqfh lq frh!flhqwv lv qrw v|vwhpdwlf> wkh LLD dvvxpswlrq krogv1

: Frqfoxvlrqv
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wkh pdqxidfwxuhu ghflghv zkhwkhu wr h{sruw ru wr hvwdeolvk d surgxfwlrq
vxevlgldu| lq wkh iruhljq frxqwu|1 Lq wkh vhfrqg vwdjh/ wkh pdqxidfwxuhu
fkrrvhv wkh lqyhvwphqw prgh= juhhqhog lqyhvwphqw/ phujhu dqg dftxlvlwlrq
ru mrlqw yhqwxuh1 Lq d wkhruhwlfdo prgho zh uhodwhg wkhvh fkrlfhv wr up0
dqg frxqwu|0vshflf yduldeohv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ zh irxqg wkdw wkh kljkhvw0dvvhw
+ru 0surgxfwlylw|, upv fkrrvh juhhqhog IGL/ wkh orzhu0dvvhw upv P)D
ru mrlqw yhqwxuhv dqg wkrvh zlwk wkh ohdvw dvvhwv h{sruwlqj1 Wklv suhglfwlrq
lv frquphg lq rxu hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv xvlqj up0ohyho Mdsdqhvh gdwd1 Wklv
vxjjhvwv wkdw up khwhurjhqhlw| sod|v dq lpsruwdqw uroh lq wkh h{sodlqlqj
wkh sdwwhuq ri iruhljq gluhfw lqyhvwphqw1

58
; Gdwd Dsshqgl{
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pdun/ Ilqodqg/ Iudqfh/ Jhupdq|/ Juhhfh/ Kxqjdu|/ Lfhodqg/ Luhodqg/
Lwdo|/ Ox{hperxuj/ wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ Qhz ]hdodqg/ Srodqg/ Sruwxjdo/
Vsdlq/ Vzhghq/ Vzlw}huodqg/ XN1

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ri frpprq vwrfn pxowlsolhg e| lwv |hdu0hqg vwrfn sulfh +dv olvwhg lq
wkh SDFDS gdwdedvh,1 Lq fdvhv zkhuh wkh |hdu0hqg vwrfn sulfh zdv qrw
dydlodeoh/ lwv sulfh zdv ghwhuplqhg xvlqj wkh vwrfn lqirupdwlrq olvwhg
lq Wr|r Nhl}dl*v Mdsdq Frpsdq| Kdqgerrn1

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Zruog Ghyhorsphqw Lqglfdwruv FG0URP1

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Hxurshdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz 6;/ 43740881

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ri pxowlqdwlrqdo upv= wkh fdvh ri phujhuv dqg dftxlvlwlrqv/ WHDP0
Xqlyhuvlw| ri Sdulv/ plphr1

^6` Emruydwq/ N1 +5337,/ Hfrqrplf lqwhjudwlrq dqg wkh surwdelolw| ri furvv0


erughu phujhuv dqg dftxlvlwlrqv/ Hxurshdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ iruwkfrp0
lqj1

^7` Eorqljhq/ E1D1/ U1E1 Gdylv/ dqg N1 Khdg +5335,1 Hvwlpdwlqj wkh
Nqrzohgjh0Fdslwdo Prgho ri wkh Pxowlqdwlrqdo Hqwhusulvh= Frpphqw1
QEHU Zrunlqj Sdshuv ;<5<1 QEHU/ Fdpeulgjh/ Pdvv1

59
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frqfhqwudwlrq wudghr ehwzhhq pxowlqdwlrqdo vdohv dqg wudgh/ Dphulfdq
Hfrqrplf Uhylhz ;:/ 85308771

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wkh Zruog Hfrqrp| 48/ 540631

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Nqrzohgjh Fdslwdo Prgho ri wkh Pxolwlqdwlrqdo Hqwhusulvh1 Dphulfdq
Hfrqrplf Uhylhz <4 +6,= 9<6:3;1

^;` Fkdr/ F1F1 dqg H1V1K1 \x +4<<9,/ Duh zkroo| iruhljq0rzqhg hqwhusulvhv
ehwwhu wkdq mrlqw yhqwxuhvB/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv 73/ 5580
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Lqgxvwuldo Rujdql}dwlrq 54/ 6;406<:1

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lq roljrsro|/ Udqg Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 54/ 5:805<51

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plphr1

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qdwlrqdo Hfrqrplhv 4:/ 77;079:1

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zlwk Khwhurjhqhrxv Ilupv1 Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz <7 +4,= 6336491

^48` Kruq/ K1 dqg M1 Ohylqvrkq +5334,1 Phujhu srolf| dqg wudgh olehudol}d0
wlrq1 Hfrqrplf Mrxuqdo 444/ 5770:91

5:
^49` Kruq/ K1> Shuvvrq/ O1 +5334,/ Wkh htxloleulxp rzqhuvkls ri dq lqwhuqd0
wlrqdo roljrsro|/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv/ 86= 63:06661

^4:` Kruvwpdqq/ L1M1/ Pdunxvhq/ M1U1 +4<<5,/ Hqgrjhqrxv pdunhw vwuxfwxuhv


lq lqwhuqdwlrqdo wudgh +qdwxud idflw vdowxp,/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo
Hfrqrplfv/ 65= 43<045<1

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dvvhwv1 Xqlyhuvlw| ri V|gqh|/ plphr1

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5<
α2
45°

α = (3−2γ)α1/(1+2γ)
J* 2

G*

α1

Figure 1: Joint venture vs greenfield


α2
45°

α = (3−2γ)α1/(1+2γ)
J 2

M1
G
M2

α1

Figure 2: Joint venture vs merger vs greenfield

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