Stock Market Briefing:

Fundamental Stock
Market Indicator
Yardeni Research, Inc.

July 16, 2020

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com

Joe Abbott
732-497-5306
jabbott@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator 1-3

July 16, 2020 / Fundamental Stock Market Indicator Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
Figure 1.
70 250
YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX 240
230
220
Boom-Bust Barometer* 210
60 10/13 200
Consumer Comfort Index 190
180
170
160
50 150
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140
130
120
110
40 100
90
80
70
60
30 50
40
7/11 30
20
10
20 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.
Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.

Figure 2.
0 700
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS vs INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
400
650
800

1200 600
7/11
1600
550
2000

2400 500

2800
450
3200 7/14
3600 400

4000
CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index 350
4400
(1967=100)
4800 300

5200 Initial Unemployment Claims

(4-week ma, thousands, sa, inverted scale) 250
5600
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6000 200
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Commodity Research Bureau.

Page 1 / July 16, 2020 / Fundamental Stock Market Indicator Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
Figure 3.
300 3400
S&P 500 INDEX & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER*
7/15 3200

3000
S&P 500 Index
2800
Boom-Bust Barometer 2600
200
2400

2200

2000

1800

1600
100
1400

1200

1000

800
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0 600
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 4.
210 3400
S&P 500 INDEX & FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR
200 7/15 3200
10/13 3000
190
S&P 500 Index
2800
180
Fundamental 2600
170 Stock Market Indicator*
2400
160
2200
150
2000
140
1800
130
1600
120
1400
110
1200
100 1000

90 800
yardeni.com
80 600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials
spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims.
Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor’s.

Page 2 / July 16, 2020 / Fundamental Stock Market Indicator Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
Figure 5.
210 180
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR 12/26
200 170
S&P 500 10/13
190 Forward Earnings* 160

180 150
Fundamental
170 Stock Market Indicator** 140

160 130

150 120

140 110

130 100

120 90

110 80

100 70

90 60
yardeni.com
80 50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

* 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus forecast.
** Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials
spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims.
Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 6.
250 180
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER
230 (weekly) 170
210
160
190
150
170 7/9
150 140

130 130
110
120
90
110
70
S&P 500 100
50 Forward Earnings*
30 7/11 90
Boom-Bust Barometer**
10
80
-10
70
-30
-50 60
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-70 50
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for the current year and next year.
** CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 3 / July 16, 2020 / Fundamental Stock Market Indicator Yardeni Research, Inc.
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