Chapter One TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING IN THE URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS Urban transportation planning is the process that leads to decisions on transportation policies and programs, Inthis process, planners develop information about the impacts of implementing alternative courses of action involving transportation services, suchas newhighways, bus route changes, or parking restrictions, This information is used to help decision-makers (elected officials or their representatives) in their selection of transportation policies and programs. ‘The transportation planning process relies on travel demand forecasting, which involves pre- dieting the impacts that various policies and programs will have on travel in the urban area. The forecasting process also provides detailed information, such as traffic volumes, bus pa- tronage, and turning movements, to be used by engineers and planners in their designs. A travel demand forecast might include the number of cars on a future freeway or the number of passengers on a new express bus service, It might also predict the amount of reduction in auto use that would occur in response to a new policy imposing taxes on central-area parking, To help you understand the role of travel demand forecasting in urban transportation planning, this first chapter is divided into two sections: first, a brief look at the planning process, and then forecasting as itis appliedin planning, The urban transportation planning process is dis- cussed inthe FHWA/UMTA audio-visual presentation titled "An Overview of Urban Transporta- tion Planning,” ‘Therefore, this discussion of planning is limited,THE URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS ‘ORGANZATION This chart shows the major > MPO + ate activities in the transporta- S ieeaiy A iendics tion planning process, Each step is briefly discussed in this section, PLANNING WORK PROGRAMS © Prospectus Unified Planning Work Program ‘TRANSPORTATION PLAN: "TRANSPORTATION PLAN: LONG-RANGE ELEMENT ‘TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT ELEMENT © Planning Tools © Evaluation of Plas Atternatives Selectice of Plan Elemest © Pianaing Toole © Evaluation of Plan Alternatives 4¢ Selection of Plan Flement ‘TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM © Staged Multiyear Element © Auual Element ‘CONTINUING PROCESS: MONITOR, UPDATE, REPORT1-3 Organization ‘Transportation planning is an extensive under- taking. The need for an effective organization is obvious; this phase of the planning process en- suresefficient direction from public officials and guidance from the citizens of the study area. The planning process must operate within the frameworkof the goals andobjectives of the study area. Early inthe process, waysto promote in- teraction with public officials, publie agencies and the citizens of the area must be defined to make sure that the goals and objectives reflect current community values. The governor of each state designates a Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) to be re~ sponsible, with the state, for urban transportation planning. Usually, one MPO is designated for each urbanized area or group of adjacent areas. The MPO's planning activities are carriedoutin cooperation with state and local agencies. The staffs of other local agencies can be contracted by the MPO for work on some of the elements of the planning process. The organization phase, then, is designed to ensure that all available inputs are used to the fullest extent possible to organize planning to meet the needs, goals, and objectives of the community.1-4 Planning Work Program Planning work programs are developed tomake sure that the planning is conducted efficiently and comprehensively, and that it addresses all pertinent issues, As you can see in the dia- gram, there are two parts to this phase: the prospectus and the unified planning work pro- gram. The prospectus establishes a multi-year framework for the planning process, It summarizes the planning procedures, discusses the important issues that will be addressed during planning, describesthe responsibilities of eachagency that is participating in planning, and describes the status of all elements in the planning process, The unified planning work program has two functions, It describes all urban transportation and transportation-related planning activities that are anticipated over the next year or two, and it documents work to be performed with federal planning assistance.1-5 ‘Urban transportation planning leads to decisions on transportation and programs, Travel demand forecasting predicts the impacts on that these policies and programs will have. MPO stands for . It is designated by the to carry out planning activities within the state, Planning work programs consist of two parts: © developing a and © — developing a