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India Economics
Monthly Chartbook
May 2019

Sameer Narang
+91 22 6698 5713
chief.economist@bankofbaroda.com

Dipanwita Mazumdar
dipanwita.mazumdar@bankofbaroda.com

Sonal Badhan
sonal.badhan@bankofbaroda.com

Aditi Gupta
aditi.gupta3@bankofbaroda.com

Jahnavi
jahnavi@bankofbaroda.com

@2019 Bank of Baroda. All rights reserved

Important disclosures are provided at the end of this report.
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Global headwinds, a key risk

Domestic consumption continues to moderate led by decline in non-oil- traffic has been impacted by a negative supply side shock as well. Hence,
non-gold imports, auto and FMCG goods. Notably, rural growth has services growth will be moderate in Q4. However, a sharp acceleration in
moderated the most. At the same time, the decline in international oil state government spending (as visible in state budgets FY19RE) will
prices and yields has been a key positive in May’19. However, the compensate for some of the slack in other sectors within services.
escalation of US-China trade war will lead to further downward pressure
Yields eased in May: Indian yields have eased in May’19 on the back of a
on global economy and thus India’s exports (FIG-100). A normal
drop in global oil prices, global yields and RBI’s OMO of Rs 250bn.
monsoon, stable government and rural stimulus (PM-KISAN) will favour a
However, the scenario was different in Apr’19 when oil prices increased
pick-up in domestic demand in H2. So would normalisation of the stress in
by 6.9%. Domestic yields had gone up. The credit-deposit wedge
the NBFC sector. Any escalation in oil prices and trade war remains a key
widened to 330bps in Apr’19 from 323bps in Mar’19. Spread between
risk to our view.
10Y and 1Y bonds also increased to 116bps in Apr’19 vs 109bps in Mar’19.
Subdued consumption: The downturn in consumption demand Oil prices, US-China trade talks and domestic elections will decide
continued. Non-oil-non-gold imports decreased by (-) 2.6% in Mar’19 trajectory of yields.
from (-) 1.9% in Feb’19. Auto sales too decelerated and the slowdown
Depreciation pressure on INR returns: INR depreciated by 0.3% in
continued well into Apr’19. FMCG firms reported dip in volume growth
Apr’19 after touching an 8-month high in Mar’19. While FII inflows
for Q4FY19 led by deceleration in rural demand. Rural demand depends
remained positive in Apr’19 at US$ 2bn, an increase in oil prices by 6.9%
upon monsoon and IMD has projected near-normal monsoon (96% of
explains the decline. Though INR has depreciated even in May’19, oil
the LPA) in 2019. In addition, government’s PM-KISAN program will
prices have fallen by (-) 4.3%. However, FIIs have sold domestic securities
also boost rural consumption.
of US$ 127mn. With the general election results due this month and
Services growth moderating: Services activity is moderating with PMI escalating US-China trade tensions, INR is likely to remain volatile.
reading at 51 in Apr’19 compared with 52 and 52.5 in Mar’19 and Feb’19
respectively. Most services indicators such as CV sales, railway freight
Note: The source for all exhibits is ‘CEIC and Bank of Baroda’ unless otherwise specified
and port cargo volumes are seeing a deceleration in Q4. Air passenger

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 2 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Consumption
Final consumption expenditure
FIG 1 – CONSUMPTION SLOWED BY 8.3% IN Q3FY19 AS AGAINST 9.8% IN FIG 2 – GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION DECELERATED TO 6.5% IN Q3FY19
Q2FY19

Real PFCE, YoY Real GDP, YoY (R) Real GFCE, YoY Real GDP, YoY (R)
12% 10% 40% 10%
10% 8% 30% 8%
8% 20%
6% 6%
6% 10%
4% 4%
4% 0%
2% 2% 2%
(10%)
0% 0% (20%) 0%
Sep-14

Sep-17
Sep-15

Sep-18
Sep-16
Mar-15

Mar-18
Mar-16
Mar-14

Mar-17
Jun-14

Jun-17
Jun-15

Jun-18
Jun-16

Dec-16
Dec-14

Dec-17
Dec-13

Dec-15

Dec-18

Sep-18
Sep-14

Sep-16

Sep-17
Sep-15
Mar-14

Mar-16

Mar-17
Mar-15

Mar-18
Jun-18
Jun-14

Jun-16

Jun-17
Dec-13

Jun-15

Dec-15

Dec-18
Dec-14

Dec-16

Dec-17
FIG 3 – GENERAL GOV REVENUE SPENDING FALLS… FIG 4 – …STATE* GOV REVENUE SPENDING FOLLOWING SUIT

12MMA YoY 12MMA YoY

18% 26%
16%
22%
14%
18%
12%
14%
10%
8% 10%

6% 6%

4% 2%
Jun-18

Feb-19
Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18
Oct-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18
Feb-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-19
Note: *All states excluding N.E states, Andhra Pradesh, Goa and Karnataka

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 3 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Non-oil imports, electronic imports

FIG 5 – DOWNTURN IN NON-OIL-NON-GOLD IMPORTS CONTINUES IN FIG 6 – ELECTRONIC IMPORTS FALL AT A SLOWER PACE IN MAR’19
MAR’19

Total imports, 6MMA YoY Non oil & Non gold, 6MMA YoY (R) YoY 3MMA
45% 30%
80%
30% 20% 60%

15% 10% 40%

20%
0% 0%
0%
(15%) (10%)
(20%)

(30%) (20%) (40%)

Sep-18

Sep-18
Sep-16

Jan-19

Sep-16

Jan-19
Jan-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

Jan-17

Sep-17

Jan-18
Mar-16

Mar-19

Mar-16

Mar-19
Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-17

Mar-18
Jul-17

May-18
Jul-18

May-18

Jul-18
May-16
Jul-16

May-16

Jul-16
May-17

May-17

Jul-17
Nov-16

Nov-16
Nov-17

Nov-18

Nov-17

Nov-18
FIG 7 – PASSENGER CAR SALES DROP FURTHER IN MAR’19 FIG 8 – TWO-WHEELER SALES PLUNGES BY (-) 17.3% IN MAR’19

YoY 3MMA YoY YoY 3MMA YoY

40% 50%
30%
30%
20%

10% 10%
0%
(10%)
(10%)

(20%) (30%)
Mar-17
Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18
Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-19

Mar-14

Mar-16

Mar-19
Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17
Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18
Jul-14

Nov-14

Jul-16

Nov-16
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 4 10 May 2019
 20%

10%
15%

0%
5%
0%
10%
30%

20%
40%
Mar-17 Mar-17
Apr-17 Apr-17
May-17 May-17
Jun-17 Jun-17
Jul-17 Jul-17

ECONOMICS RESEARCH
Aug-17 Aug-17
Sep-17 Sep-17
Oct-17 Oct-17
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Nov-17 Nov-17
Dec-17 Dec-17
YoY

YoY
Jan-18 Jan-18
Feb-18 Feb-18
Mar-18 Mar-18
Credit deployment of personal loans

Apr-18 Apr-18

FIG 11 – GROWTH OF VEHICLE LOANS EASES

May-18 May-18
3MMA YoY

Jun-18

3MMA YoY
Jun-18
Jul-18 Jul-18
Aug-18 Aug-18
Sep-18 Sep-18
Oct-18 Oct-18
FIG 9 – GROWTH IN CREDIT CARD OUTSTANDING IMPROVES

Nov-18 Nov-18
Dec-18 Dec-18
Jan-19 Jan-19
Feb-19 Feb-19
Mar-19 Mar-19

5
5%
10%
25%

0%
15%
20%

100
130

80
120

90
110
140

Mar-14 Mar-17
Jun-14 Apr-17
Sep-14 May-17
Dec-14 Jun-17
Mar-15 Jul-17
Jun-15 Aug-17
Sep-15 Sep-17
Dec-15 Oct-17
Mar-16 Nov-17
Jun-16 Dec-17
Sep-16
YoY

Jan-18
Current situation

Nov-16
Feb-18
Dec-16
Mar-18
Mar-17
Apr-18
FIG 12 – HIGHER CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

May-17
May-18
Jun-17
Jun-18
3MMA YoY

Sep-17
Nov-17 Jul-18
FIG 10 – PERSONAL LOANS REMAIN STEADY IN MAR’19

Dec-17 Aug-18
Future expectation

Mar-18 Sep-18
May-18 Oct-18
Jun-18 Nov-18
Sep-18 Dec-18
128.9

Nov-18 Jan-19
Dec-18 Feb-19
Mar-19
96.7

Mar-19
133.4

104.6

10 May 2019
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Consumer durables & non-durables production

FIG 13 – CONSUMER DURABLES MODERATES TO 1.2% IN FEB’19 FIG 14 – FMCG OUTPUT RISES BY 4.3% IN FEB’19

YoY 3MMA YoY YoY 3MMA YoY

20% 25%

15% 20%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
(5%) (5%)
(10%) (10%)

Jun-18
Feb-16

Jun-16

Feb-19
Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17
Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-18

Oct-18
Oct-16

Jun-15

Jun-18
Feb-16

Jun-16

Feb-19
Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17
Feb-15

Oct-15

Feb-18

Oct-18
Oct-16
Agriculture
FIG 15 – AGRICULTURE GROWTH DROPS TO 2.7% IN Q3FY19 (4.6% IN Q3FY18) FIG 16 – STOCK OF FOODGRAINS ROSE TO 57 MN TN IN MAR’19 COMPARED
TO 43 MN TN IN MAR’18

Agriculture GVA Real GVA (R) (mn tn)

8% 10% 80 73
69
65 66 63 64 65
70 61 60 60
6% 8% 55 57
60
4% 50 43
6%
2% 40
4% 30
0%
20
(2%) 2% 10
(4%) 0%
0

Sep-18

Jan-19
Aug-18

Mar-19
Mar-18

Oct-18

Feb-19
May-18

Jul-18
Apr-18

Jun-18

Dec-18
Nov-18
Mar-14
Jun-14

Mar-16
Jun-16

Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-13

Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15

Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Sep-14
Dec-14

Sep-16
Dec-16

Dec-17

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 6 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

FIG 17 – GROWTH IN AGRICULTURE CREDIT RISES TO 7.8% IN MAR’19 FIG 18 – RICE PROCUREMENT IS HIGHER THAN WHEAT
Year Wheat Rice
YoY 3MMA YoY
14% 2010-11 22.51 34.20

12% 2011-12 28.34 35.04

10% 2012-13 38.15 34.04
8%
2013-14 25.09 31.85
6%
2014-15 28.02 32.04
4%
2015-16 28.09 34.22
2%
2016-17 22.96 38.11
0%
Sep-17

Jan-18

Sep-18

Jan-19
Aug-17

Mar-18

Aug-18

Mar-19
Mar-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Oct-18

Feb-19
May-17

Jul-17

May-18

Jul-18
Apr-17

Apr-18

Jun-18
Jun-17

Dec-17

Dec-18
Nov-17

Nov-18
2017-18 30.83 38.19

2018-19 35.80 37.44*

Source: Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution | *As on: 29 Mar 2019

FIG 19 – BOTH DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL PRICE OF RICE IS RISING FIG 20 – BOTH DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL WHEAT PRICES HAVE
FALLEN

(Rs/Quintal) International Rice prices Domestic Rice prices MSP-Paddy (R) (Rs/Quintal) International Wheat prices Domestic Wheat prices MSP-Wheat (R)
3,000 2,000 2,600 1,800
2,750 1,800
2,500 2,200 1,600
2,250 1,600
1,800 1,400
2,000 1,400
1,750 1,400 1,200
1,200
1,500
1,000 1,000 1,000
1,250
1,000 800 600 800
Oct-18
Oct-10

Oct-12

Oct-14

Oct-16
Oct-13

Oct-15

Oct-17
Oct-11

Apr-18
Apr-10

Apr-12

Apr-14

Apr-16

Apr-19
Apr-13

Apr-15

Apr-17
Apr-11

Oct-10

Oct-12

Oct-14

Oct-16
Oct-13

Oct-17
Oct-15
Oct-11

Oct-18
Apr-10

Apr-12

Apr-14

Apr-16

Apr-19
Apr-13

Apr-17
Apr-15
Apr-11

Apr-18
Source: World Bank Source: World Bank

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 7 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

FIG 21 – GLOBAL FOOD PRICES RISES IN APR’19 FIG 22 – RURAL WAGES (MEN) REMAIN STEADY

YoY 3MMA YoY 3MMA

20% 8%

10% 7%

6%
0%
5%
(10%)
4%
(20%) 3%

(30%)
2%

Aug-18
Aug-16

Aug-17
Feb-16

Feb-19
Feb-17

Feb-18
May-16

May-17

May-18
Nov-17

Nov-18
Nov-16
Jul-18
Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Jan-19

Apr-19
Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17
Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-18

Apr-18

Oct-18
Oct-16

FIG 23 – FOODGRAIN AND COMMERCIAL CROP PRODUCTION FIG 24 – NEAR NORMAL MONSOON IN 2019
Crop type (%) Growth in 2016 Growth in 2017 Growth in 2018*
(% of LPA) Skymet first forecast IMD first forecast Actual rainfall
Rice 5.1 2.9 2.4
120
Wheat 6.7 1.2 (0.6)
100
Pulses 41.5 9.1 (4.8)
80
Cereals 7.1 3.0 (0.9)
60
Total Foodgrain 9.4 3.5 (1.2)
40
Sugarcane (12.2) 23.1 1.0
20
Oilseeds 23.9 0.1 0.6
0
Cotton 8.6 7.1 (13.8) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: Ministry of Agriculture | Note: *Based on 2nd advance estimates Source: IMD

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 8 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Inflation
FIG 25 – RETAIL INFLATION ROSE TO ITS 5-MONTH HIGH OF 2.9% IN MAR’19 FIG 26 – …SLOWER PACE OF DEFLATION IN VEGETABLES EXERTED UPWARD
VS 2.6% IN FEB’19 LED BY FOOD PRESSURE ON FOOD INFLATION

CPI, YoY Food inflation, YoY Meat and fish, YoY Fruits, YoY Vegetables, YoY Food inflation, YoY (R)
10% 32% 6%

7% 22% 4%

4% 12% 2%

1% 2% 0%

(2%) (8%) (2%)

(5%) (18%) (4%)

Mar-15

Mar-18
Mar-16

Sep-16
Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-19
Mar-17

Sep-17
Sep-15

Sep-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

Mar-19
Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Dec-18
FIG 27 – …THIS WAS LED BY SEASONALITY IN VEGETABLE PRICES AS FIG 28 – MODERATION IN VEGETABLE PRICES ALSO CONTINUED IN APR’19
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CFPI INCHED DOWN (1.4%)

CPI, Food (MoM) CPI, Food SA (MoM) Vegetable index actual, MoM Vegetable index computed, MoM*
25%
3% 20%
2% 15%
10% 1.4%
1%
5%
0% 0%
(5%)
(1%)
(10%)
(2%) (15%)
Dec-17

Dec-18
Dec-16
Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18
Mar-16

Mar-19
Mar-17

Mar-18
Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18

Aug-18
Aug-16

Aug-17
Apr-16

Apr-19
Apr-17

Apr-18
Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18
Source: NHB | *Vegetable index computed using average retail price of major items

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 9 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

FIG 29 – CORE CPI ALSO MODERATED BY 28BPS TO 5% IN MAR’19 VS 5.3% IN FIG 30 – …EXCEPT HEALTH & RECREATION, ALL ITEMS OF CORE HAVE
FEB’19 EDGED DOWN

CPI, YoY Core CPI, YoY Mar-18 Feb-19 Mar-19

9%
11%
8%
9% 7%

7% 6%
5%
5% 4%
3% 3%
2%
1% Household Health Transport and Recreation and Education Personal Care
Mar-14

Mar-16

Mar-19
Mar-17

Sep-17
Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-18

Sep-18
Sep-14

Sep-16

Goods and Communication Amusement and Effects

Services

FIG 31 – CORE EXCL. TRANSPORT & COMM HAS ALSO INCHED DOWN BY FIG 32 – …INCHING UP OF CRUDE PRICES LATELY BY 6% (US$ 71/BBL) IN
30BPS AT 5.4% VS 5.7% IN FEB’19 APR’19 MIGHT EXERT PRESSURE ON TRANSPORT & COMM COMPONENT

Core CPI, YoY Core excl trans & comm, YoY (Rs/ltr) Brent (R) Average retail fuel prices (US$/bbl)

9% 87 80
8% 82
70
77
7%
72 60
6%
67
50
5%
62
4% 40
57
3% 52 30
Feb-14

Aug-14

Feb-16

Aug-16

Feb-19
Feb-17

Aug-17
Feb-15

Aug-15

Feb-18

Aug-18

Feb-18

Sep-18

Dec-18

Feb-19
May-17
Jun-17

Sep-17
Oct-17

Dec-17
Jan-18

Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18

Oct-18
Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19
Apr-19
Apr-17

Jul-17
Aug-17

Nov-17
Note: *Average retail price of Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 10 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Industry
FIG 33 – INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT DROPS IN FEB’19 FIG 34 – HOWEVER ELECTRICITY AND MINING IMPROVED

IIP 3MMA YoY Real GVA industry, YoY (R) Apr-Feb'18 Apr-Feb'19
8% 14%
6% 5.5%
7% 12% 5.2%
6% 10% 5% 4.6%
6.7% 7.1% 4.3%
4.0% 3.8%
5% 8% 4%
4% 6% 3.0%
3% 4% 3% 2.3%
3.7%
2% 2% 2%
1% 0%
0.8% 1%
0% (2%)
Apr-16
Jun-16

Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17

Dec-17
Dec-15

Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-16

Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16

Feb-19
Oct-17

0%
IIP Mining Manufacturing Electricity
Note: IIP for Feb’19 is average for Jan-Feb’19 is on a YoY basis

FIG 35 – MANUFACTURING PULLED DOWN IIP IN FEB’19 FIG 36 – CAP GOODS DOING THE SAME

YoY 3MMA
IIP, YoY Capital goods, YoY
12% 22%
18%
10%
14%
8% 10%
6% 6%
4%
2%
(2%)
2% (6%)
0% (10%)
(2%) (14%)

Feb-16

Oct-16

Feb-19
Feb-15

Oct-15

Feb-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Oct-18
Jun-16
Jun-15

Jun-17

Jun-18
Jun-17
Feb-15

Jun-15

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18
Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-19
Feb-17

Oct-17
Oct-15

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 11 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

FIG 37 – INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DROPS TO 0.1% IN FEB’19

Sectoral (%) Weight Feb-19 Jan-19 Feb-18 Apr-Feb’19 Apr-Feb’18
IIIP 100.0 0.1 1.4 6.9 4.0 4.3
Mining 14.4 2.0 3.9 (0.4) 3.0 2.3
Manufacturing 77.6 (0.3) 1.0 8.4 3.8 4.6
Electricity 8.0 1.2 0.9 4.5 5.5 5.2
Use-Based
Primary Goods 34.1 1.2 1.4 3.7 3.6 3.8
Capital Goods 8.2 (8.8) (3.4) 16.6 4.3 4.9
Intermediate Goods 17.2 (4.9) (3.2) 3.4 (0.3) 2.2
Infrastructure and Construction Goods 12.3 2.4 6.8 13.0 7.7 5.3
Consumer Durables Goods 12.8 1.2 2.3 7.5 6.4 0.3
Consumer Non-Durables Goods 15.3 4.3 3.3 7.4 4.1 10.2

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 12 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Manufacturing
FIG 38 – MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY DIPS FURTHER FIG 39 – MANUFACTURING PMI EASES TO 51.8 IN APR’19

Real GVA Manufacturing, YoY IIP Manufacturing, 3MMA YoY (R) Manufacturing PMI IIP Manufacturing, YoY (R)
16% 12% 56 52.6 12%
14% 6.9% 54 10%
12% 10%
10% 6.66% 8%
8% 52
8% 51.8 6%
6% 6% 50
4% 1.0% 4%
2% 4% 48
3.4%
2%
0% 2% 46
(2%) (0.3%) 0%
(4%) 0.4% 0% 44 (2%)

Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16

Feb-19
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Dec-15

Oct-18
Dec-18

Aug-17

Aug-18
Feb-18

Oct-18

Feb-19
Dec-
Oct-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
Apr-17

Jun-17

Jun-18
Dec-17

18
Note: IIP for Feb’19 is average for Jan-Feb’19 on a YoY basis Source: Markit

Mining & Electricity

FIG 40 – MINING ACTIVITY REMAINS STEADY FIG 41 – ELECTRICITY MODERATES

Real GVA Mining, YoY IIP Mining, 3MMA YoY (R) Real GVA Electricity, YoY IIP Electricity, 3MMA YoY (R)
20% 10%
14%
8% 10%
16% 12% 8.7%
6% 10% 8.2% 8%
12%
2.8% 3.0% 4% 8% 6%
8%
2% 6% 6.9%
4% 4%
1.3% 0% 4%
0% (2%) 2% 2%
(2.1%) 1.1%
(4%) (4%) 0% 0%
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16

Dec-16

Feb-19
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Dec-15

Feb-18

Oct-18
Dec-18
Oct-16

Jun-18
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16

Feb-19
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Dec-15

Feb-18
Apr-18

Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Oct-16
Dec-16
Note: IIP for Feb’19 is average for Jan-Feb’19 on a YoY basis Note: IIP for Feb’19 is average for Jan-Feb’19 on a YoY basis

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 13 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Infrastructure and Construction

FIG 42 – CONSTRUCTION SECTOR GROWTH EASES FIG 43 – DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH IN CEMENT PRODUCTION

Real GVA Construction, YoY IIP Infra/Constrn, 3MMA YoY (R) Cement production, YoY
15% 13.3%
15% 12%
8.0%
10%
10% 4.6% 10%
8%
5.9% 6.3%
6% 4.6%
5% 8.5% 3.7%
5%
4%
9.6%
0% 2%
0% 0%

(5%) (2%) (1.2%)

Jun-17

Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18

Dec-18
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16

Feb-19
Feb-17
Apr-17

Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Dec-15

Oct-18
(5%)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Note: IIP for Feb’19 is average for Jan-Feb’19 on a YoY basis

Infrastructure Index
FIG 44 – INFRA INDEX GROWS AT THE SAME PACE IN FY19 FIG 45 – COAL PRODUCTION RISES SHARPLY IN FY19

Infrastructure index, YoY 10% Coal Production,YoY

6% 8.1%
4.9% 4.7% 8% 7.4%
5% 4.3% 4.3%
4% 6%
3.0% 4.8%
3% 2.6%
4% 3.2%
2% 2.5%
2% 1.0%
1%

0% 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 14 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Auto production & Business expectation index

FIG 46 – AUTO PRODUCTION DROPS IN MAR’19 FIG 47 – BUSINESS SENTIMENT SEEMS LESS OPTIMISTIC

YoY 3MMA Current quarter Expectation for next quarter

40% 120 116.2
30% 115
20%
113.5
110
10%
0% 105 107.2
(10%) 107.1
100
(20%)
(30%) 95

Jun-15

Jun-18
Jun-14

Jun-16

Jun-19
Jun-13

Dec-13

Dec-15

Jun-17

Dec-17

Dec-18
Dec-14

Dec-16
Mar-16
May-16

Mar-19
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15

Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-16

Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16

Jan-19
FIG 48 – INFRASTRUCTURE INDEX IMPROVES TO 4.7% IN MAR’19
(%) Weight Mar-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Mar-18
Infrastructure Index 100 4.7 2.1 1.5 4.5
Coal 10.3 9.1 7.3 1.7 9.1
Crude Oil 9.0 (6.2) (6.1) (4.3) (1.6)
Natural Gas 6.9 1.4 3.8 6.2 1.0
Petroleum Refinery Products 28.0 4.3 (0.8) (2.6) 1.1
Fertilizers 2.6 4.3 2.5 10.5 3.2
Steel 17.9 6.7 4.9 5.5 4.7
Cement 5.4 15.7 8.0 11.0 13.5
Electricity 19.9 1.4 0.7 0.8 6.0

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 15 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Investment
FIG 49 – REAL GFCF GROWTH HAS PICKED UPTO 10.6% IN Q3FY19 VS 10.2% FIG 50 – IN FY19 AS WELL, REAL GFCF IS EXPECTED TO GROW AT A FASTER
IN THE PREVIOUS QUARTER PACE OF 10% VS 9.3% IN THE PREVIOUS YEAR

Real GFCF, YoY Real GDP, YoY (R) (YoY) GFCF, at const prices
16% 10% 14%
14% 12%
12% 8% 10.0%
9.3%
10%
10%
6% 8%
8%
6% 6%
4%
4% 4%
2% 2% 2%
0%
(2%) 0% 0%

FY10

FY12

FY14

FY16
FY13

FY15

FY17

FY18
FY11

FY19AE
Jun-14

Jun-16
Jun-15

Jun-17

Jun-18

Dec-18
Dec-14

Dec-16
Dec-13

Dec-15

Dec-17

FIG 51 – PLF OF GOVT. THERMAL PLANTS INCHED DOWN TO 74.6% IN APR’19 FIG 52 – CAPITAL GOODS PRODUCTION HAS FALLEN SHARPLY IN FEB’19
VS 77.7% IN MAR’19, WHILE PLF OF PVT PLANTS PICKED UPTO 64.4% LED BY UNFAVOURABLE BASE

Thermal: PLF, Central Thermal: PLF, Private Capital goods production, YoY
80% 20%
15%
70% 10%
5%
60%
0%
(5%)
50%
(10%)
(8.8%)
40% (15%)

Feb-18

Oct-18
Feb-16

Oct-16

Feb-19
Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Jun-18
Jun-16
May-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

Apr-19
Apr-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 16 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

FIG 53 – …CAPITAL GOODS IMPORTS HAVE ALSO REMAINED MUTED SINCE FIG 54 – CENTRAL GOVERNMENT’S CAPEX SPENDING CONTINUED TO BE A
JUL’18 DRAG DOWN DUE TO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION

Capital goods import YoY Capital goods import, 6MMA, YoY Capital spending of the central government 12MMA, YoY
40% 60%

25%
35%
10%
10%
(5%)

(20%) (15%)

(35%) (40%)

Nov-18
Nov-16

Nov-17

Mar-18
Mar-16

Mar-19
Mar-17

Jul-17

Jul-18
Jul-16

Jun-18
Jun-16

Feb-19
Feb-17

Jun-17

Feb-18

Oct-18
Feb-16

Oct-16

Oct-17
FIG 55 – INDUSTRY CREDIT ROSE SHARPLY BY 6.9% IN MAR’19 VS 5.2% IN FIG 56 – …LED BY STEEPER CREDIT OFFTAKE TO LARGE INDUSTRY (8%
FEB’19 & 0.7% IN MAR’18 GROWTH IN MAR’19 VS 6.7% IN FEB’19 & 0.8% IN MAR’18)

Gross bank credit, YoY Credit to industry, YoY Credit to large industry, YoY

14% 10%
8%
9% 6%
4%
4% 2%
0%
(1%) (2%)
(4%)
(6%) (6%)
Mar-16

Mar-19
Mar-17
Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18
Jul-16

Nov-16

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-16

Mar-19
Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17
Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18
Jul-16

Nov-16
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 17 10 May 2019
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

FIG 57 – CREDIT TO INFRA SEGMENT ALSO ROSE AT A MARKED PACE OF FIG 58 – CREDIT TO HOUSING HAS ALSO INCHED UP CONSIDERABLY
18.5% IN MAR’19 VS 11.9% IN FEB’19, DRIVEN BY FAVOURABLE BASE

Credit to Infra, YoY Credit to housing, 6MMA, YoY Credit to housing 3 MMA, YoY
20%
18%
18%
13%
8% 16%
3%
14%
(2%)
12%
(7%)
(12%) 10%

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-18
Sep-16
Mar-15

Mar-18
Mar-16

Mar-19
Mar-17
Mar-19
Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17
Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18
Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

FIG 59 – …DEMAND FOR HOUSING ALSO GOT A BOOST BY GOVT’S FIG 60 – FDI INFLOWS WAS AT US$41BN IN FYTD19 VS US$ 46BN IN THE
AFFORDABLE HOUSING PREVIOUS YEAR

(mn) Houses sanctioned, PMAY (U) Houses completed, PMAY (U), (R) (mn) (US$ bn) FDI Inflow
1.8 52
45 46
3.6 41 41
1.5 42 36
3.1 32
2.6 1.2 32 27 26
25 25
23
2.1 20
0.9 22 16
1.6
0.6 12 6
1.1
0.3 2
0.6

FY10

FY14

FYTD19
FY17
FY13

FY15
FY08

FY18
FY06

FY12
FY09

FY16
FY11
FY07
0.1 0.0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Note: data for FY19 as of 25 Mar 2019 Source: RBI | FYTD: Apr-Feb

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 18 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Services sector
FIG 61 – GVA: SERVICES ACTIVITY GROWTH SLOWS FURTHER IN Q3FY19 FIG 62 – SERVICES PMI FALLS FOR THE SECOND TIME IN APR’19

YoY Services PMI

12% 55
11% 51.4 51.0
53
10%
9% 8.0%
51
7.4%
8% 49
7%
47
6% 7.2%
5% 45
Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-18
Sep-16
Sep-14

Sep-17
Mar-15

Mar-18
Mar-16
Mar-14

Mar-17
Jun-15

Jun-18
Jun-16

Dec-16
Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-17

Dec-17
Dec-13

Dec-15

Dec-18

Aug-17

Aug-18
Aug-16

Feb-18

Oct-18
Oct-16

Feb-19
Feb-17

Oct-17

Apr-18
Jun-16

Apr-19
Apr-17

Jun-17

Jun-18

Dec-18
Dec-16

Dec-17
Source: Markit

FIG 63 – GVA: TRADE & RELATED SERVICES REMAIN STEADY IN Q3FY19 FIG 64 – STATES’* REVENUE SEEN PICKING UP IN Q4FY19
YoY 3M Trailing sum YoY
14%
30%
12% 25%

10% 8.3% 20% 15.0%

6.9% 15%
8%
10%
6% 5%
6.9%
9.8%
4% 0%

Feb-18

May-18

Aug-18

Nov-18
Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-19
Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-18
Sep-16
Sep-14

Sep-17

Mar-18
Mar-16
Mar-14

Mar-17
Mar-15
Jun-15

Jun-18
Jun-16

Dec-16
Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-17

Dec-17
Dec-13

Dec-15

Dec-18

Note: *All states excluding N.E states, Andhra Pradesh, Goa and Karnataka

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 19 10 May 2019

 10%
15%

0%

(5%)
5%
5%
25%
45%
65%
85%

(35%)
(15%)
Jun-14

Trade
Jun-14
Sep-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Mar-15

ECONOMICS RESEARCH
Jun-15
Jun-15
Sep-15 Sep-15
Dec-15 Dec-15
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Mar-16 Mar-16

YoY
YoY

Jun-16 Jun-16

Sep-16 Sep-16

Dec-16 Dec-16

Mar-17 Mar-17
3MMA YoY

Jun-17

3MMA YoY
Jun-17
Sep-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Mar-18
31.0%

Jun-18
Jun-18

7.8%
Sep-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
FIG 67 – PORT CARGO VOLUMES IN Q4FY19 EASE FURTHER VS Q3FY19
6.7%

Dec-18
Mar-19

1.2%
0.6%
FIG 65 – COMMERCIAL VEHICLE SALES GROWTH DIPS SHARPLY IN Q4FY19

Mar-19

0.5%

20
1%

(4%)
10%
15%

7%
9%

3%
5%
(5%)

(2%)
0%
5%

Jul-14 Jun-14
Source: PPAC

Oct-14 Sep-14

Jan-15 Dec-14

Apr-15 Mar-15

Jul-15 Jun-15

Oct-15 Sep-15

Jan-16 Dec-15

Apr-16 Mar-16

Jul-16 Jun-16

Oct-16 Sep-16

Jan-17 Dec-16
3MMA YoY

3MMA YoY

Apr-17 Mar-17
FIG 68 – …SO DOES RAILWAY FREIGHT TRAFFIC

Jul-17 Jun-17

Oct-17 Sep-17

Jan-18 Dec-17

Mar-18
9.4%

Apr-18

Jul-18 Jun-18

Sep-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
5.9%

Jan-19
2.0%

Mar-19
FIG 66 – DIESEL CONSUMPTION DIPS IN MAR’19 AS BRENT PRICES INCH UP

4.6%

Apr-19
3.5%

3.2%

10 May 2019
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Hotels and Communications

FIG 69 – FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVAL GROWTH RECOVERED IN JAN’19 FIG 70 – HOWEVER AIRLINE PASSENGER TRAFFIC GROWTH CONTINUES TO
SLOW

3MMA YoY YoY 3MMA YoY

25%
23%
20%
18%
15%
13% 3.9%
20.2%
10%
8%
5% 3%

0% (3%)
Jan-15

Jan-17

Jan-18
Jan-14

Jan-16

Jan-19
Oct-14

Oct-16
Oct-15

Oct-17

Oct-18
Jul-14

Jul-16
Jul-15

Jul-17

Jul-18
Apr-14

Apr-16
Apr-15

Apr-17

Apr-18

Sep-14

Sep-16
Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-18
Mar-16

Mar-19
Mar-15

Mar-17

Mar-18
Jun-14

Jun-16
Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-17

Jun-18

Dec-18
Dec-14

Dec-16

Dec-17
FIG 71 – RAILWAY PASSENGER TRAFFIC GROWTH SLIPS FOR THE THIRD FIG 72 – WIRELESS SUBSCRIBER NOS. RISING STEADILY SINCE APR’18
CONSECUTIVE MONTH IN APR’19

3MMA YoY (mn) Number of Subscribers

1,184
6% 1,200
1.1%
3% 1,150
1,100
0%
1,050
(3%) 0.6% 1,000
950
(6%)
900
(9%) 850
Jan-16

Jan-19

Aug-14
Jan-15

Jan-17

Jan-18

Aug-15

Aug-17

Aug-18
Aug-16
Feb-15

Feb-18
Oct-14

Oct-16

Feb-16

Feb-19
Oct-15

Oct-17

Jul-18

Oct-18

May-15

Feb-17
May-17

May-18
Jul-14

Jul-16

May-14

May-16
Jul-15

Jul-17
Apr-16

Apr-19
Apr-15

Apr-17

Apr-18

Nov-14

Nov-16
Nov-15

Nov-17

Nov-18
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 21 10 May 2019
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Finance and Real estate

FIG 73 – GVA: FINANCE, REAL ESTATE & PROF. SERVICES MAIN DRIVER OF FIG 74 – DEPOSIT GROWTH STEADY IN APR’19; CREDIT GROWTH EASES
GROWTH IN Q3FY19 MARGINALLY

YoY Deposit growth, 3MMA YoY Credit growth, 3MMA YoY

20% 17% 13.6%
15%
15%
12%
14.2%
10% 6.8% 7.3% 10%
7%
5%
7.2% 5%
0% 2%
Sep-14

Sep-17

Jan-15

Jan-18
Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-18

Jan-16

Jan-19
Sep-16

Jan-17
Mar-15

Mar-18
Mar-14

Mar-16

Mar-17

Oct-15

Oct-17

Oct-18
Oct-14

Oct-16
Jul-15

Jul-17

Jul-18
Jul-14

Jul-16
Jun-14

Jun-17

Apr-15

Apr-17

Apr-18
Jun-15

Jun-18

Apr-16

Apr-19
Dec-14

Jun-16

Dec-16

Dec-17
Dec-13

Dec-15

Dec-18
FIG 75 – CREDIT TO SERVICES LEAD THE MODERATION IN OVERALL CREDIT FIG 76 – …LED BY NBFCS; CREDIT TO TRADE & REAL ESTATE SERVICES SEEN
GROWTH… HOLDING UP IN MAR’19

Industry credit, 3MMA YoY Services credit, 3MMA YoY Trade, 3MMA YoY Commercial real estate, 3MMA YoY NBFCs, 3MMA YoY
26.2%
29%
55%
24%
45%
19%
21.6%
14% 35%
5.9% 25%
9% 4.0%
4% 15%

(1%) 5%

(6%) (5%)
Sep-14

Sep-16
Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-18
Mar-15

Mar-17

Mar-18
Mar-16

Mar-19
Jun-14

Jun-15

Jun-17

Jun-18
Dec-14

Jun-16

Dec-16
Dec-15

Dec-17

Dec-18
Sep-18
Sep-14

Sep-16
Sep-15

Sep-17
Mar-16

Mar-19
Mar-15

Mar-17

Mar-18
Jun-14

Jun-16
Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-17

Jun-18

Dec-18
Dec-14

Dec-16

Dec-17

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 22 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Public administration
FIG 77 – PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & RELATED SERVICES DRAG OVERALL FIG 78 – GENERAL GOVT. SPENDING PICKS UP SHARPLY TOWARDS END OF
SERVICES GROWTH DOWN IN Q3FY19 FY19

YoY 3M Trailing sum YoY

24% 29.1%
30%
21%
18%
20%
15%
12% 8.7%
10%
9%
6% 9.2% 0%
7.6%
3% (1.1%)
0% (10%)

May-18
Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-19
Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

Aug-18

Nov-18
Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-18
Sep-16
Sep-14

Sep-17
Mar-15

Mar-18
Mar-16
Mar-14

Mar-17
Jun-14

Jun-15

Jun-18
Jun-16

Dec-16
Dec-14

Jun-17

Dec-17
Dec-13

Dec-15

Dec-18
FIG 79 – CENTRAL GOVT. SPENDING CONTINUES TOO REBOUND FIG 80 – STATE* GOVT. SPENDING MAJOR DRIVER OF GENERAL
GOVERNMENT SPENDING

3M Trailing sum YoY

3M Trailing sum YoY
35%
30% 53.3%
60%
25%
20% 10.6%
40%
15%
10% 11.6%
20%
5%
0%
0%
(5%)
(10%) (13.9%)
(20%)
(15%)

May-18

Aug-18

Nov-18
Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-19
Feb-18
Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18
Feb-17

Feb-18
Feb-16

Feb-19
May-17

May-18
May-16

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18

Note: *All states excluding N.E states, Andhra Pradesh, Goa and Karnataka

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 23 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Financial sector
Money and banking
FIG 81 – CREDIT & DEPOSIT GROWTH WAS FAIRLY STABLE AT 13% & 9.7% IN FIG 82 – TIME DEPOSITS REMAINED STABLE AT 9.6%, DEMAND DEPOSITS
APR’19 GREW BY 11% IN APR’19

Deposit, YoY* Credit, YoY* Demand deposit, YoY* Time deposit, YoY*
18% 35%
16% 30%
14% 25%
12%
20%
10%
15%
8%
6% 10%
4% 5%
2% 0%
May-18
Apr-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Jan-19

Apr-19
Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

Aug-18

Oct-18
Dec-16

Mar-18

May-18
Apr-16

Jul-16

Feb-19

Apr-19
Jan-17

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Aug-18

Nov-18
Oct-16
Note: *Apr19 implies fortnight as of 26 Apr 2019 Note: *Apr19 implies fortnight as of 26 Apr 2019

FIG 83 – CD RATIO WAS AT 77% IN APR’19 VS 77.7% IN THE PREVIOUS FIG 84 – CIC ACCRETION WAS LOWER AT 404BN DURING MAR-APR FY20
MONTH VS RS 736BN IN THE SAME PERIOD OF PREVIOUS YEAR

Credit deposit ratio* (Rs bn) Change in currency in circulation (CIC)

80% 6,000
4,948
78% 5,000
76%
4,000
74% 3,095
3,000
72%
2,000
70%
736
1,000 404
68%
Mar-18

May-18
Apr-16

Jul-16

Apr-19
Jan-17

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Aug-18

Nov-18
Oct-16

Feb-19

0
FY18 FY19 FYTD19 FYTD20

Note: *Apr19 implies fortnight as of 26 Apr 2019.

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 24 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

FIG 85 – 10Y GSEC YIELD AND HEADLINE INFLATION MOVING IN TANDEM FIG 86 – OIL PRICES AND 10Y YIELD ALSO EXHIBIT STRONG CORRELATION
WITH BOTH RISING SHARPLY IN APR’19

CPI, YoY 10 year Gsec (R)* Brent, USD/bbl 10Y Gsec yield, ( R)

13% 9% 140
9%
11% 120
8%
9% 100 8%
7%
7% 80
7%
6%
5% 60
5% 6%
3% 40
1% 4% 20 5%

Apr-18
Apr-16
Apr-14

Apr-19
Apr-17

Oct-17
Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-15

Oct-15

Oct-18
Oct-16
Oct-14

Oct-18
Oct-14

Oct-16
Oct-13

Oct-15

Oct-17
Apr-14

Apr-16

Apr-19
Apr-13

Apr-15

Apr-17

Apr-18
Note: *As on last trading day of the month. 7.17GS2028 is taken Source: RBI

FIG 87 – STEEPER INCREASE IN LONG END YIELDS AND DECLINING SHORT FIG 88 – AVERAGE SYSTEM LIQUIDITY DEFICIT WAS HIGHER AT RS 865BN IN
END YIELDS HAVE KEPT SPREAD HIGHER SINCE JAN’19 APR’19 VS RS 846BN IN MAR’19

Spread, bps Mean +sd Mean-sd (Rs bn) Total liquidity for banking sector
140 3,000
120 2,000
1,000
100
0
80 (1,000)
60 (2,000)
(3,000)
40
(4,000)
20 (5,000)
0 (6,000)
Aug-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

Mar-19

Mar-19
Oct-18
May-18

Jul-18

Apr-15

Jul-15

Mar-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Nov-18
Mar-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Nov-16
Apr-19

Feb-19

Apr-19
Feb-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Dec-17
Apr-18

Jun-18

Oct-15

Dec-15
Nov-18

Dec-18

Source: RBI Source: RBI

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 25 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Mutual fund (MF) indicators

FIG 89 – SENSEX ROSE TO ITS RECORD HIGH OF 39,032 IN APR’19, AUM OF FIG 90 – MF NET EQUITY INFLOW WAS HIGHER AT RS 86BN IN MAR’19 VS RS
MFS WAS HIGHER AT 24TN IN MAR’19 40BN IN FEB’19, DEBT INFLOW WAS ALSO HIGHER AT RS 99BN

(Rs tn) AUM: Mutual fund BSE sensex* (R) (Rs bn) Net inflow Equity Net inflow Debt Net inflow MF, (R) (Rs bn)
30 39,032 45,000 800 2,000
40,000
25
35,000 550 1,000
20 30,000
25,000 300 0
15
20,000
50 (1,000)
10 15,000
10,000 (200) (2,000)
5
5,000
0 0 (450) (3,000)

Apr-19
Apr-07

Apr-17
Apr-01

Apr-03

Apr-11
Apr-05

Apr-13

Apr-15
Apr-09

Jan-19

Mar-19
Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Feb-19
Source: *Sensex as on last trading day of the month.

Insurance sector indicators

FIG 91 – LIFE INSURANCE POLICIES SOLD IN MAR’19 DECLINED BY (-) 3.2% FIG 92 – GROSS DIRECT PREMIUM FOR NON LIFE INSURANCE ALSO
IN VS 3.8% GROWTH SEEN IN FEB’19 REMAINED MUTED AT 9% VS 23% IN FEB’19 DUE TO UNFAVOURABLE BASE

Number of life insurance policies sold, YoY Non life insurance: Gross direct premium, YoY
35% 50%
25% 40%
15%
30%
5%
20%
(5%)
(15%) 10%

(25%) 0%

Mar-19
Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19
Jan-19

Mar-19
Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 26 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Public finance
Central government finances
FIG 93 – GST COLLECTIONS IN FY19 AVERAGE RS 990BN VS RS 912BN IN FY18
Monthly FY19
(Rs bn) Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19# FY19
run rate (RE)
CGST 274 321 281 309 579 360 299 480 344 431 351 359 475 382 4,589 5,039
UT GST 9.7 0.9 0.5 0.6 1.6 3.3 1.1 1.3 0.8 5.9 1.3 1.1 0.0 2 18 -
IGST 137 200 169 102 (399) 52 148 (142) 90 (94) 95 45 64 27 330 500
SGST* 539 333 433 473 678 455 481 561 433 605 441 579 508 498 5,980 4,882
Cess 76 85 72 80 80 74 79 77 79 77 84 82 92 80 961 900
Total GST 1,035 940 956 965 940 944 1,007 976 947 1,025 972 1,066 1,139 990 11,878 11,321
GST 3B Filing by deadline (mn) 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.33 7.35 7.60 7.21 - - -
Source: PIB | *Computed from PIB and CGA data | #Provisional numbers from PIB

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 27 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

FIG 94 – CENTRAL GOVT. PUBLIC DEBT IN Q3FY19 LOWEST SINCE FY17 FIG 95 – GAP BETWEEN AVG. YIELD ON SDL & 10Y G-SEC STEADILY RISING
IN FY20 FROM 58BPS IN MAR’19 TO 59BPS IN APR’19 AND 60BPS IN MAY’19
% of GDP
(%) SDL Yield G-Sec (10Y)
Dec-18 40.3%
9.0
Sep-18 40.6%
Jun-18 40.6% 8.5
Mar-18 40.4% 8.0
Dec-17 40.5%
7.5
Sep-17 40.7%
Jun-17 40.7% 7.0
Mar-17 39.9% 6.5
Dec-16 41.4%
6.0
Sep-16 41.5%

May-16

Nov-16

May-19
Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

May-18

Aug-18

Nov-18
Aug-16

Feb-19
Jun-16 41.7%

Source: CCIL

Central government borrowing

FIG 96 – CENTRE’S GROSS BORROWING WAS AT RS 510BN IN APR’19 VS RS FIG 97 – CENTRE’S PLANNED BORROWING FOR H1FY20 ESTIMATED AT RS
720BN IN MAR’19 & RS 480BN IN APR’18 4.42TN
Total accepted amount FY20 FY20
(Rs Bn) Borrowing under GSec FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
(G-Sec), (Rs bn) (actual) (planned)
800 720
Q1 1,830 1,740 1,500 1,680 1,320 510* 2,210
700
600
600
510 Q2 1,570 1,630 1,910 1,890 1,440 - 2,210
480 480 480 460 480 480
500 450

400 360 360 360 Q3 1,430 1,640 1,610 1,640 1,270 - -

300
Q4 1,090 840 800 670 1680 - -
200
Mar-19
Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

Apr-19

Total 5,920 5,850 5,820 5,880 5,710 - -

Source: RBI Source: RBI *till 26 Apr 2019

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 28 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

State government borrowing

FIG 98 – STATE BORROWING IN APR’19 LOWER THAN LAST YEAR FIG 99 – STATE BORROWING REACHES RS 348BN IN Q1FYTD20
Quarterly SDL issuances, FY20 FY20
(Rs bn) Monthly SDL issuances FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
(Rs bn) (actual) (planned)
700

600 Q1 439 502 548 650 766 348* 1,101

500
Q2 469 627 792 1,130 809 - -
400
317 296
300 Q3 692 858 1,214 1,054 1,277 - -
200
Q4 809 959 1,322 1,348 1,809 - -
100
Mar-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

Mar-19

Apr-19
Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Apr-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Dec-18
Total 2,408 2,946 3,876 4,182 4,661 - -

Source: RBI Source: RBI | *Data as of 2 May 2019

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 29 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

External sector
Exports
FIG 100 – INDIA’S EXPORTS FALLING IN LINE WITH GLOBAL EXPORTS FIG 101 – INDIA’S EXPORT GROWTH FALLS TO 9.2% IN FY19 VS 10.5% IN FY18,
PICKS UP IN MAR’19 TO 11.2%

India exports, YoY 3MMA World exports index, YoY 3MMA (R) GDP: Exports growth, YoY Exports growth, 3MMA YoY
20% 20%
55%
15%
40% 10% 10%
25% 5%
10% 0% 0%
(5%) (5%)
(10%) (10%)
(20%) (15%)
(35%) (20%) (20%)
Sep-10

Sep-12

Sep-14

Sep-16
Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-18
Sep-11

Mar-13

Mar-15

Mar-17

Mar-18
Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-14

Mar-16

Mar-19
Sep-09
Mar-09

Sep-13

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-18
Sep-12

Sep-14

Sep-16
Mar-13

Mar-15

Mar-18
Mar-12

Mar-14

Mar-16

Mar-19
Mar-17
Exports by major sectors
FIG 102 – EXPORTS OF ENGINEERING GOODS PICKS UP IN MAR’19 FIG 103 – EXPORTS OF ORGANIC CHEMICALS ALSO HIGHER AT 17% IN MAR’19
VS 4.1% IN FEB’19

Engineering goods, YoY Engineering goods, 3MMA YoY Organic chemicals, YoY Organic chemicals, 3MMA YoY
50% 60%
35% 50%
40%
20%
30%
5% 20%
(10%) 10%
0%
(25%) (10%)
(40%) (20%)

Sep-16
Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-18
Mar-15

Mar-17

Mar-18
Mar-16

Mar-19
Jun-16
Jun-15

Jun-17

Jun-18
Dec-16
Mar-16

Jun-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Mar-19

Dec-15

Dec-17

Dec-18
Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

Dec-18
Sep-16

Dec-16

Sep-17

Dec-17

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 30 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

FIG 104 – PHARMA EXPORTS OUTPERFORM AT 11.5% IN FY19 VS 3% IN FY18 FIG 105 – OIL EXPORTS ALSO HIGHER

Drugs and pharmaceuticals, YoY Drugs and pharmaceuticals, 3MMA YoY Oil, YoY Oil, 3MMA YoY
30% 115%
25%
85%
20%
15% 55%
10%
25%
5%
0% (5%)
(5%)
(35%)
(10%)
(15%) (65%)
Mar-15

Mar-18
Mar-16

Jun-16

Mar-19
Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17
Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Jun-18

Sep-18

Dec-18
Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-15

Mar-18

Jun-18
Mar-16

Jun-16

Mar-19
Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17
Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Sep-18

Dec-18
Sep-16

Dec-16
Imports
FIG 106 – INDIA’S IMPORTS GROW BY 11% IN FY19 VS 22% IN FY18, PICK UP IN FIG 107 – GOLD IMPORTS RISE SHARPLY BY 31.2% IN MAR’19
MAR’19 BY 1.5% FROM (-) 4.2% IN FEB’19

GDP: Imports growth, YoY Imports growth, 3MMA YoY Gold imports, YoY Gold imports, 3MMA YoY
40%
350%
30% 300%
250%
20% 200%
10% 150%
100%
0% 50%
0%
(10%) (50%)
(20%) (100%)

Sep-16
Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-18
Mar-15

Mar-17

Mar-18
Mar-16

Mar-19
Jun-15

Jun-17

Jun-18
Jun-16

Dec-16
Dec-15

Dec-17

Dec-18
Mar-12

Mar-14

Mar-16

Mar-19
Mar-17

Sep-17
Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-18

Sep-18
Sep-12

Sep-14

Sep-16

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 31 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

FIG 108 – OIL IMPORTS ALSO REBOUND IN MAR’19 TO 5.7% FROM (-) 8% IN FIG 109 – IMPORTS OF IRON AND STEEL GROW AT A STEADY PACE
FEB’19

Oil imports, YoY Oil imports, 3MMA YoY Iron and steel, YoY Iron and steel, 3MMA YoY
100% 60%
80%
40%
60%
40% 20%
20%
0%
0%
(20%) (20%)
(40%)
(60%) (40%)

Mar-16

Mar-19
Mar-17

Jun-17
Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

Dec-18
Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Sep-17

Dec-17
Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-18
Sep-16
Mar-15

Mar-17

Mar-18
Mar-16

Mar-19
Jun-15

Jun-17

Jun-18
Jun-16

Dec-16
Dec-15

Dec-17

Dec-18
FIG 110 – IMPORTS OF PEARLS AND PRECIOUS STONES ALSO SEEN INCHING FIG 111 – VEGETABLE OIL IMPORTS RISE SHARPLY
UP AFTER SUSTAINED DECLINE

Pearls and precious metals, YoY Pearls and precious metals, 3MMA YoY Vegetable oils, YoY Vegetable oils, 3MMA YoY
100% 40%
80%
60% 25%
40% 10%
20%
0% (5%)
(20%)
(20%)
(40%)
(60%) (35%)

Sep-15

Sep-17

Sep-18
Sep-16
Mar-15

Mar-18
Mar-15

Jun-15

Mar-16
Mar-18

Jun-18

Mar-19
Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-19
Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-17
Sep-15

Dec-15

Sep-18

Dec-18

Jun-15

Jun-17

Jun-18
Jun-16
Dec-15

Dec-17

Dec-18
Dec-16
ECONOMICS RESEARCH 32 10 May 2019
MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Exports and imports by major regions

FIG 112 – EXCEPT MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA, EXPORTS TO OTHER MAJOR REGIONS DECELERATE IN FY19
Region (% YoY) Share (in %) FY19 Jan'19 Feb'19 Mar'19 FY18 FY19
Americas 21.1 8.8 5.8 9.6 14.3 9.6
Asia and Pacific (Ex. China) 28.1 (10.5) (6.3) 10.7 12.8 4.1
China 5.1 8.6 6.8 3.6 31.1 25.4
Europe 19.7 (9.2) (0.9) 5.5 13.1 6.6
Middle East and Africa 24.8 27.3 11.1 18.6 0.7 10.3
Other 1.1 72.6 54.9 (3.4) (26.4) 26.6

FIG 113 – IMPORTS FROM CHINA DECLINE IN FY19, IMPORTS FROM OTHER REGIONS ALSO LOWER (EXCEPT ASIA PACIFIC)
Region (% YoY) Share (in %) FY19 Jan'19 Feb'19 Mar'19 FY18 FY19
Americas 12.7 (0.5) 2.3 19.8 20.0 16.0
Asia and Pacific (Ex. China) 25.3 12.2 11.1 17.9 20.4 20.9
China 13.7 (10.5) (18.1) (24.8) 24.6 (7.9)
Europe 15.3 6.1 (5.6) 22.6 13.7 12.6
Middle East 31.1 0.6 (4.5) 0.0 22.7 19.3
Other 1.9 (52.1) (65.4) (66.8) 32.0 (56.8)

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 33 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Trade deficit
FIG 114 – TRADE DEFICIT RISES TO US$ 10.9BN IN MAR’19 FROM A 10-MONTH FIG 115 – DUE TO HIGHER OIL PRICES
LOW OF US$ 9.6BN IN FEB’19

(US$ bn) Trade deficit (US$ bn) Trade deficit Crude prices (Avg.) (R) (US$/bbl)
21 Mar'19, US$ 10.9bn 20 85
18 18
16 70
15
14
12 12 55
9 10
8 40
6
6
3 4 25
Mar-15

Mar-18
Jun-18
Mar-16
Jun-16
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14

Mar-19
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13

Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15

Sep-18
Dec-18
Sep-16
Dec-16
Dec-14

Mar-18
Mar-16

Jun-16

Mar-19
Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17
Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Jun-18

Sep-18

Dec-18
Sep-16

Dec-16
Trade in services BoP
FIG 116 – SERVICES EXPORT DECELERATES FURTHER IN FEB’19 FIG 117 – CAD NARROWS TO 2.5% OF GDP IN Q3FY19 FROM A 21-QUARTER
HIGH IN Q2FY19

(YoY) Services exports, YoY Services exports, YoY 3MMA CAD as % of GDP
Sep'18, 2.9%
40% 3.0%

30% 2.5%
2.0%
20% Dec'18, 2.5%
1.5%
10%
1.0%
0%
0.5%
(10%) 0.0%
(20%) (0.5%) Mar-14
Jun-14
May-18

Mar-15
Jun-15
May-17
May-16

Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14

Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Sep-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15

Dec-13
Feb-18

Aug-18
Nov-18

Sep-15
Dec-15
Feb-17

Aug-17
Feb-16

Aug-16

Nov-17
Nov-16

Feb-19

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 34 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

FIG 118 – SUPPORTED BY HIGHER SERVICES RECIEPTS

(US$ bn) Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19

Current account (13.7) (13.1) (15.9) (19.1) (16.9)

CAD/GDP (%) (2.1) (1.9) (2.4) (2.9) (2.5)

Trade balance (44.0) (41.6) (45.8) (50.0) (49.5)

- Merchandise exports 77.5 82.2 83.4 83.4 83.1

- Merchandise imports 121.6 123.8 129.1 133.4 132.6

--Oil imports 29.2 33 34.7 35.2 38.5

--Non-oil imports 92.4 90.8 94.4 98.2 94.1

- Net Services 20.7 20.2 18.7 20.3 21.3

--Software 18.2 18.6 18.4 19.3 19.8

Transfers 16.1 16.2 17 19.3 17.2

Other invisibles (6.5) (7.8) (5.8) (8.7) (6.0)

Capital account 22.5 25.1 5.0 16.7 13.6

% of GDP 3.4 3.6 0.8 2.6 2.0

Foreign investments 9.6 8.7 1.6 7.7 5.4

- FDI 4.3 6.4 9.8 7.5 7.5

- FII 5.3 2.3 (8.1) 0.2 (2.1)

Banking capital 4.6 4.6 10.1 0.5 4.9

Short-term credit 4.8 4.5 (3.5) 4.8 (0.7)

ECBs 0.4 1.0 (1.3) 2.2 2.0

External assistance 0.7 1.4 0.5 0 1.7

Other capital account items 2.4 4.8 (2.4) 1.5 0.4

E&O 0.6 1.3 (0.4) 0.5 (1.0)

Overall balance 9.4 13.3 (11.3) (1.9) (4.3)

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 35 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Foreign inflows
FII inflows FDI inflows
FIG 119 – FII INFLOWS AT US$ 2BN IN APR’19 FIG 120 – FDI INFLOWS MARGINALLY LOWER AT US$ 41.4BN IN FYTD19 VS US$
42.1BN IN FYTD18

(US$ bn) FII-Net equity FII-Net debt FII-Net Total, 12M Trailing sum (R) (US$ bn) (US$ bn) FDI inflows FDI inflows, 12M Trailing sum (R) (US$ bn)
10 50 9 52
8 40 8
47
6 7
30
4 6 42
20 5
2 37
10 4
0
0 3 32
(2) 2
(4) (10) 27
1
(6) (20) 0 22

Apr-18
Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-19
Apr-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Oct-18
Oct-16

Oct-17
Oct-14

May-14

May-17

Nov-17
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15

Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-14

Aug-14
Nov-14

Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16

Feb-19
Feb-17

Aug-17
Source: RBI, Bank of Baroda Research

FIG 121 – FDI INFLOWS FROM MAURITIUS LOWER, INFLOWS FROM FIG 122 – FDI INFLOWS IN SERVICES SECTOR RISE TO US$ 6.6.BN IN FYTD19
SINGAPORE PICKUP
% Share % Share
Country (US$ bn) Jun'18 Sep'18 Dec'18 FYTD18 FYTD19 Sector (US$ bn) Jun'18 Sep'18 Dec'18 FYTD18 FYTD19
FY18 FY'18

Mauritius 35.5 1.5 2.4 2.1 13.3 6.0 Services Sector 15.0 2.4 2.5 1.7 4.6 6.6

Singapore 27.2 6.5 2.1 4.4 9.2 13.0 Telecommunications 13.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 6.1 2.3

Netherlands 6.2 0.8 1.5 0.6 2.4 3.0 Computer software and hardware 13.7 1.4 1.1 2.5 5.2 5.0

Japan 3.6 0.9 1.0 0.3 1.3 2.2 Trading 9.7 1.6 0.5 0.9 2.3 3.0

UK 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.1 Automobile industry 4.7 0.5 1.1 0.5 1.7 2.1

Source: DIPP Source: DIPP

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 36 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Forex reserves and external debt

FIG 123 – INDIA’S FX RESERVES RISE TO AN 11-MONTH HIGH OF US$ 418BN FIG 124 – EXTERNAL DEBT RISES TO 20.2% OF GDP IN Q3FY19

(US$ bn) External Debt, % of GDP

Forex reserves USD/INR (R) 25%
450 24%
72
23% Q3FY19, 20.2%
400 66
22%
60 21%
350
54 20%
300 19%
48
18%
250 42 17%

Dec-08

Dec-09
Dec-07
Apr-15

Apr-18
Apr-12

Apr-14

Apr-16

Apr-19
Apr-13

Apr-17
Apr-11

Dec-13

Dec-15

Dec-17

Dec-18
Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-14

Dec-16
Source: Bloomberg | Weekly data as of 26 Apr 2019

FIG 125 – RBI’S SOLD US$ 24.8BN IN SPOT MARKET IN FY19 (APR-FEB’19) FIG 126 – IN FORWARDS MARKET, RBI SOLD US$ 25.2BN IN THE SAME
PERIOD

(US$ bn) Net FX intervention: Cash (US$ bn) Net FX intervention: Forwards
14 35
12
10 25
8 15
6
4 5
2 (5)
0
(2) (15)
(4) (25)
(6)
(8) (35)
May-14

May-17

Nov-17
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15

Feb-18
May-18
Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-14

Aug-14
Nov-14

Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16

Feb-19
Feb-17

Aug-17
Aug-18
Aug-14

Aug-16
Aug-15

Aug-17
Feb-14

Feb-16

Feb-19
Feb-15

Feb-17

Feb-18
May-14

May-16
May-15

May-17

May-18
Nov-15

Nov-18
Nov-14

Nov-16

Nov-17

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 37 10 May 2019

 MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Markets
Equity
FIG 127 – ON MOM BASIS*, SENSEX INCREASED BY 1%, SLIGHTLY LOWER FIG 128 – ON CYTD19 BASIS*, SENSEX INCREASED BY 8% UNDER-
THAN MSCI EM’S INCREASE OF 2% PERFORMING MSCI EM WHICH ROSE BY 12%
Equity Index MoM, % change Equity Index CYTD19, % change
China (1%) Korea 3%
Indonesia 0% Indonesia 7%
India 1% India 8%
Korea 1% Thailand 9%
Australia 2% Japan 10%
Thailand 1.7% Singapore 11%
MSCI EM Equity 2.0% Portugal 12%
Hong Kong 2% MSCI EM Equity 12%
UK 2% Australia 12%
US 3% UK 13%
Portugal 3.5% US 14%
Russia 4% Germany 15%
Japan 4% Hong Kong 15%
Singapore 5.4% Russia 16%
Germany 7% Greece 23%
Greece 7% China 26%

(2%) (1%) 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Source: Bloomberg | *As on 30 Apr 2019, Indices are in USD terms Source: Bloomberg | * As on 30 Apr 2019 Indices are in USD terms

FIG 129 – ON YOY BASIS, SENSEX GREW BY 6% FIG 130 – NIFTY VIX ROSE IN APR’19 REFLECTING PRE ELECTION VOLATILITY
Equity Index YoY (% change) NSE volatility index Chicago board options exchange volatility index (R)
Korea (19%)
Greece (16%) 30 40
Portugal (9%)
Germany (9%) 35
Singapore (8%) 25 30
MSC I EM Equity (7%)
Thai land (7%) 25
UK (6%) 20
China (6%) 20
Hong Kong (4%)
Japan (3%) 15 15
Australia (1%)
Indonesi a 6% 10
Indi a 6% 10 5
Russia 8%

Mar-19
Apr-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Jan-19

Apr-19
US 10%

(25%) (22%) (19%) (16%) (13%) (10%) (7%) (4%) (1%) 2% 5% 8% 11% 14%
Source: Bloomberg | Indices are in USD terms Source: Bloomberg

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 38 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

FIG 131 – TECH STOCKS DRIVE SENSEX HIGHER FIG 132 – SMALL AND MIDCAP SEGMENTS TUMBLE

Performance of major sectors in BSE, MoM Performances according to mcap, MoM

Realty (3.3%)
BSE MidCap (3.8%)
Power (3.2%)
Cap goods (2.4%)
BANKEX (2.4%) BSE SmallCap (2.7%)

Cons durables 0.1%

Auto 0.1% BSE LargeCap 0.8%
Oil & Gas 0.6%
Metal 1.4% BSE 0.9%
Teck 4.7%

Source: Bloomberg, *As on 30 Apr 2019 Source: Bloomberg | *As on 30 Apr 2019

10 year Bond yields

FIG 133 – ON MOM BASIS*, INDIAN 10 YEAR YIELD INCREASED BY 4BPS FIG 134 – ON CYTD19 BASIS*, INDIAN 10 YEAR YIELD ROSE THE MOST BY
16BPS AMIDST HIGHER OIL PRICES & LIQUIDITY CONCERNS
10 year generic yields, MoM, bps 10 year generic yields, CYTD19, bps
Greece (37) Greece (103)
Russia (20) Russia (72)
Port ugal (14) Portugal (61)
Thailand 1 Australia (53)
Australia 1 Hong Kong (29)
Kore a 1 Germany (23)
India 4 Indonesia (20)
Japan 4 US (18)
Germany 8 Kore a (11)
US 10 UK (9)
Singapore 10 Japan (4)
UK 19 Thailand (4)
Indonesia 20 China 9
Hong Kong 25 Singapore 13
China 33 India 16

Source: Bloomberg | 7.17GS2028 , *As on 30 Apr 2019 Source: Bloomberg | 7.17GS2028 , *As on 30 Apr 2019

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 39 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

Currencies
FIG 135 – INR DEPRECIATES BY 0.6% IN APR’19 FIG 136 – INR OVERVALUED BY 15.3% (MAR’19)

USD/INR USD/INR REER Trade weighted (36 currencies) (R)

75 74 125
70 120
71
65 115
68
60 110
65
55 105
62 100
50

45 59 95

Mar-15

Mar-18
Jun-18
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16

Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17

Mar-19
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14

Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15

Sep-18
Dec-18
Dec-16

Dec-17
Apr-14

Apr-19
Apr-17
Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-18

Oct-18
Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-16

Oct-16
Oct-14

Oct-17
Source: Bloomberg | *As on 30 Apr 2019 Source: Bloomberg

FIG 137 – RISING OIL PRICES EXERTING PRESSURE ON INR FIG 138 – INR DEPRECIATES IN LINE WITH OTHER EM CURRENCIES

USD/INR Brent (US$/bbl) (R) USD/INR EM Currencies

75 75
120 1,250
70 70
100 1,150
65 65
80 1,050
60 60 60 950
55 40 55 850
50 20 50 750
Apr-14

Apr-19
Apr-17
Apr-13

Apr-15

Apr-18
Apr-12

Apr-16

Apr-13

Apr-15

Apr-18
Apr-12

Apr-14

Apr-16

Apr-19
Apr-17
Source: Bloomberg | *As on 30 Apr 2019 Source: Bloomberg | *As on 30 Apr 2019

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 40 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

FIG 139 – MOST ASIAN CURRENCIES DEPRECIATE IN APR’19 FIG 140 – IN CYTD19, INR HAS APPRECIATED BY 0.3%
MoM change (Apr'19) (%) CYTD19 change (%)
KRW (2.8) KRW
NZD (1.9) EUR (4.5) (2.2)
MYR (1.3) JPY (1.6)
AUD (0.7) DXY (1.3)
INR (0.6) NZD (0.7)
THB (0.6) SGD 0.2
JPY (0.5) INR 0.3
SGD (0.4) IDR 0.9
CNY (0.3) PHP 1.3
CAD (0.3) CAD 1.9
IDR (0.1) THB 2.0
DXY 0.2 CNY 2.1
PHP 1.1
GBP 2.1
RUB 1.5 RUB 7.9

Source: Bloomberg | *As on 30 Apr 2019 Source: Bloomberg | *As on 30 Apr 2019

Commodities
FIG 141 – BRENT PRICES ON AN AVERAGE ROSE TO US$ 71/BBL IN APR’19 VS FIG 142 – GOLD PRICES CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN APR’19 AS WELL BY (-)
US$ 67/BBL IN MAR’19 1.2%

(US$/bbl) Brent (US$/Troy ounce) Gold

120 1,700
110 1,600
100
1,500
90
80 1,400
70 1,300
60
1,200
50
40 1,100
30 1,000
Apr-13

Aug-13

Apr-15

Aug-15

Apr-18

Aug-18
Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-19
Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17
Dec-13

Dec-15

Dec-18
Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-16

Aug-16

Apr-19
Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17
Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18
Dec-16

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 41 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

FIG 143 – COMMODITY INDEX INCHED DOWN ON FEARS OF GLOBAL FIG 144 – DXY INCHED UP IN APR’19 TO 97.48 VS 97.28 IN MAR’19 , SO WAS
SLOWDOWN THE CASE FOR BRENT

CRB, Commodity Index Brent (R) DXY Currency (US$/bbl)

510 105 115
490 105
100
470 95
95 85
450
75
90
430 65
410 85 55
45
390 80
35
370 75 25
Apr-14

Aug-14

Apr-16

Aug-16

Apr-19
Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17
Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18
Dec-14

Dec-16

Oct-17
Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18
Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-19

Apr-19
Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17
Apr-15
Source: Bloomberg | Index as on last trading day of the month Source: Bloomberg | DXY Index as on last trading day of the month

ECONOMICS RESEARCH 42 10 May 2019

MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

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ECONOMICS RESEARCH 43 10 May 2019