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STARTUP HELP
Reason 2: Business Model Failure 2018 SAAS Private Survey
Results- Part 1
As outlined in the introduction to Business Models section, after spending time with hundreds of
startups, I realized that one of the most common causes of failure in the startup world is that LANGUAGES
entrepreneurs are too optimistic about how easy it will be to acquire customers. They assume
that because they will build an interesting web site, product, or service, that customers will beat a English
path to their door. That may happen with the rst few customers, but after that, it rapidly Español (Spanish)
becomes an expensive task to attract and win customers, and in many cases the cost of
acquiring the customer (CAC) is actually higher than the lifetime value of that customer (LTV).
The observation that you have to be able to acquire your customers for less money than they will
generate in value of the lifetime of your relationship with them is stunningly obvious. Yet despite
that, I see the vast majority of entrepreneurs failing to pay adequate attention to guring out a
realistic cost of customer acquisition. A very large number of the business plans that I see as a
venture capitalist have no thought given to this critical number, and as I work through the topic
with the entrepreneur, they often begin to realize that their business model may not work because
CAC will be greater than LTV.
As outlined in the Business Models introduction, a simple way to focus on what matters in your
business model is look at these two questions:
Thinking about things in such simple terms can be very helpful. I have also developed two “rules”
around the business model, which are less hard and fast “rules, but more guidelines. These are BUILDING FOR SUCCESS
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outlined below:
To compute CAC, you should take the entire cost of your sales and marketing functions,
(including salaries, marketing programs, lead generation, travel, etc.) and divide it by the number
of customers that you closed during that period of time. So for example, if your total sales and
marketing spend in Q1 was $1m, and you closed 1000 customers, then your average cost to
acquire a customer (CAC) is $1,000.
To compute LTV, you will want to look at the gross margin associated with the customer (net of
all installation, support, and operational expenses) over their lifetime. For businesses with one
time fees, this is pretty simple. For businesses that have recurring subscription revenue, this is
computed by taking the monthly recurring revenue, and dividing that by the monthly churn rate.
Because most businesses have a series of other functions such as G&A, and Product
Development that are additional expenses beyond sales and marketing, and delivering the
product, for a pro table business, you will want CAC to be less than LTV by some signi cant
multiple. For SaaS businesses, it seems that to break even, that multiple is around three, and that
to be really pro table and generate the cash needed to grow, the number may need to be closer to
ve. But here I am interested in getting feedback from the community on their experiences to test
these numbers.
If you would like to have a capital e cient business, I believe it is also important to recover the
cost of acquiring your customers in under 12 months. Wireless carriers and banks break this rule,
but they have the luxury of access to cheap capital. So stated simply, the “rule” is:
They are often weak on strategy, building a product that no-one wants to buy as they failed to
do enough work to validate the ideas before and during development. This can carry through
to poorly thought through go-to-market strategies.
They are usually poor at execution, which leads to issues with the product not getting built
correctly or on time, and the go-to market execution will be poorly implemented.
They will build weak teams below them. There is the well proven saying: A players hire A
players, and B players only get to hire C players (because B players don’t want to work for
other B players). So the rest of the company will end up as weak, and poor execution will be
rampant.
etc.
The valuations of a startup don’t change in a linear fashion over time. Simply because it was
twelve months since you raised your Series A round, does not mean that you are now worth more
money. To reach an increase in valuation, a company must achieve certain key milestones. For a
software company, these might look something like the following (these are not hard and fast
rules):
Progress from Seed round valuation: goal is to remove some major element of risk. That
could be hiring a key team member, proving that some technical obstacle can be overcome,
or building a prototype and getting some customer reaction.
Product in Beta test, and have customer validation. Note that if the product is nished, but
there is not yet any customer validation, valuation will not likely increase much. The customer
validation part is far more important.
Product is shipping, and some early customers have paid for it, and are using it in production,
and reporting positive feedback.
Product/Market t issues that are normal with a rst release (some features are missing that
prove to be required in most sales situations, etc.) have been mostly eliminated. There are
early indications of the business starting to ramp.
Business model is proven. It is now known how to acquire customers, and it has been proven
that this process can be scaled. The cost of acquiring customers is acceptably low, and it is
clear that the business can be pro table, as monetization from each customer exceeds this
cost.
Business has scaled well, but needs additional funding to further accelerate expansion. This
capital might be to expand internationally, or to accelerate expansion in a land grab market
situation, or could be to fund working capital needs as the business grows.
What frequently goes wrong, and leads to a company running out of cash, and unable to raise
more, is that management failed to achieve the next milestone before cash ran out. Many times it
is still possible to raise cash, but the valuation will be signi cantly lower.
One of a CEO’s most important jobs is knowing how to regulate the accelerator pedal. In the early
stages of a business, while the product is being developed, and the business model re ned, the
pedal needs to be set very lightly to conserve cash. There is no point hiring lots of sales and
marketing people if the company is still in the process of nishing the product to the point where
it really meets the market need. This is a really common mistake, and will just result in a fast
burn, and lots of frustration.
However, on the ip side of this coin, there comes a time when it nally becomes apparent that
the business model has been proven, and that is the time when the accelerator pedal should be
pressed down hard. As hard as the capital resources available to the company permit. By
“business model has been proven”, I mean that the data is available that conclusively shows the
cost to acquire a customer, (and that this cost can be maintained as you scale), and that you are
able to monetize those customers at a rate which is signi cantly higher than CAC (as a rough
starting point, three times higher). And that CAC can be recovered in under 12 months.
For rst time CEOs, knowing how to react when they reach this point can be tough. Up until now
they have maniacally guarded every penny of the company’s cash, and held back spending.
Suddenly they need to throw a switch, and start investing aggressively ahead of revenue. This
may involve hiring multiple sales people per month, or spending considerable sums on SEM. That
switch can be very counterintuitive.
Most of the time the rst product that a startup brings to market won’t meet the market need. In
the best cases, it will take a few revisions to get the product/market t right. In the worst cases,
the product will be way off base, and a complete re-think is required. If this happens it is a clear
indication of a team that didn’t do the work to get out and validate their ideas with customers
before, and during, development.
David Skok
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Really good read and just sent link to my two business partners. “When to hit the accelerator
pedal” is the most
difficult and most speculative challenge we have in our industry as our product
that is weather retaliated regards to demand.
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My questions are about the scenario of a company who is attempting to get maximum market
penetration and are likely to try and avoid recuperating their cost of acquiring customers - as
almost every means of doing so may either deter the customer from using the product or will
push them into the hands of a competitor. These companies of course have an end goal to
saturate the market, then when there is no room left for competition and the customer is
already hooked they can safely introduce ways to make profit without fear of deterring
customers. This is the pattern I’ve seen for many high tech consumer market startups such as
Google, Facebook and now Twitter. So for a company who are truly subject to the network
effect like these companies they must be either huge or nothing to survive. In their case the
goal surely is not to recuperate their cost of acquisition in say 12 months but instead over a 5-
10 year period once they have dominated their market.
In general my comments on Twitter relate to the fact that no matter how good the advice from
VCs they inevitably contradict one another and also contradict success stories. I’ve started to
come to the belief that actually the complexity of predicting the success of the startup is so
incredibly high that actually no matter what rationale people place on why they back a
particular company, it is their ‘gut instinct’ that actually makes the choice. Then once decisions
are made, both the fundamental attribution error and survivor bias kicks in causing us to look
at the patterns between successful companies and not the conditions that helped them be
successful or the companies who were just like them but failed :)
That said it does no harm for me to look for the patterns in advice from VCs/Angels to help
identify weaknesses that can be strengthened.
Thanks for taking the trouble to explain this more clearly. The piece of my advice that I
believe you are referring to is the "business model failure" where entrepreneurs are too
optimistic about the cost acquire their customers.
When I look at Google, Facebook and Twitter, I see three companies that managed to
achieve true viral customer acquisition, which means that their costs to acquire
customers were amongst the lowest you will find. Granted they did have some costs,
but compared to other companies, they were extremely low. In my book, these
companies represent the ultimate best investment around: very low CAC (cost of
customer acquisition), sticky, good barriers to entry, and with enough customer
engagement that even though it may not have been clear immediately what was the
best monetization, there was very strong evidence to suggest that there would be some
good options.
The business models that fail are the entrepreneurs that believe they will be lucky
enough to get true viral growth (like Google, Facebook, and Twitter), and are not able to
pull that off Unfortunately there are really only a very small handful of companies that
see more
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http://www.sharetipsexpert....
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Some of the commenters on this post seem to compare their business' customer acquisition
struggles versus the experience at Facebook, Twitter and Google. They should understand
that the fact that you do affiliate marketing or SEO does not put your business model in the
same league with those entities. A true eco-system lock-in business model benefits from
superior network effects because other parties are linking into that platform. (eBay is a classic
example) Being first to market with the right value proposition leads to customer acquisition
scaling, and the linkages that benefit other parties create switching costs/barriers to exit.
When you hit a eureka opportunity, I agree that venture capital can subsidize sales and
earnings in order to dissuade new entrants, but the business model has to at least theoretically
be able to generate a positive cash flow and earnings without the subsidies because some day
the investors well will inevitably run dry. Investors may have already cashed out, but whether
through IPO or acquisition or partnering, the business that's left must have customers willing to
pay for its value proposition to a degree that meets hurdle rate expectations. I think that's
where you were going with the 12 month recovery of CA costs rule of thumb.
I know that it is out of favor these days to sound so much like an MBA, but entrepreneurs really
should understand these concepts before they jump into the pool. Understanding these
concepts will help them understand their probable CA costs, the financial metrics of their
business, and their best options to go to market. For example, a 'vitamin' to your end-user may
be a 'pain-killer' to your channel partner. Looking at it only as a "nice to have" value prop may
underestimate a good opportunity.
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Hi Sherry, the key to figuring this out lies in meeting with as many prospective
customers as possible and figuring out if you have built something that they want to buy
(i.e. do you have Product/Market Fit). You should watch out for the difference between
real intention to buy, as evidenced by them talking about placing orders, versus polite
positive feedback. I would also be looking for evidence that this is a repeatable sale
with many customers fitting the same application usage profile. If you can demonstrate
that to the investor by allowing them to talk to those customers, you should be able to
get the investment and use the money to expand your sales and marketing.
For more on Inbound Marketing, visit the HubSpot blog pages, as they are great at
educating people on this topic. Best, David
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Hi Victor, I believe that the discounts should appear on the LTV (Lifetime Value of the
Customer) side of the equation, as they reduce gross margin you make from each
customer.
David Skok
Matrix Partners
*Blog*: ForEntrepreneurs.com <http: forentrepreneurs.com=""/>
*E*: dskok@matrixpartners.com
*T*: +1-617494-1223
*A*: 101 Main Street, 17th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02142
*Twitter*: @BostonVC <https: twitter.com="" bostonvc=""/>
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Stuff like "focusing on the wrong things", "neglecting due diligence", or "hiring the wrong
people" came up a lot, similar to what you mention here.
I'd be curious to know, based on your experience, whether you feel the idea/model or the
execution tends to be the primary cause of failure more often than not?
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In every market there's a trajectory of performance improvement that customers are able to
make use of but where this trajectory lies is different from one customer to the next. Some
customers can be satisfied with very basic levels of performance, while others are demanding
and will only feel satisfied by very high levels of performance.
Disruptive technologies enter the market offering very low performance but their performance
steadily improves. So, in the early days of a disruptive technology the new innovation is
considered to not be good enough by most of the market but seems perfectly acceptable to
those customers that never really asked for more.
This small group of customers, often referred to as ‘early adopters’, might be attracted by the
fact that this ‘barely good enough technology’ is less expensive or offers them a bit of new
functionality that the old technology simply didn't provide
see more
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Look up the list of local VC firms and Angels, and then scour your network using
LinkedIn to find a person that knows them and can make an intro for you.
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While there are some challenges that are tough to address, I have tried to provide solutions for
most of through Digital PR.
You can have a look at how many of the Startup issues can be solved by using Digital PR
techniques.
http://www.prmention.com/bl...
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Please suggest.
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The key to figuring this out is customer validation. Prior to putting any significant money,
the recommendation is that you spend a lot of time talking to potential customers asking
them very specifically: “if I build this, will you purchase it?” and “how much would you
be wiling to pay?”. Many entrepreneurs are too scared to ask these questions, and then
discover after spending a lot of money building their product that the customers aren’t
willing to purchase it. It is far better to find that out before you spend the time and
money building the product.
Then while you are building the product, keep going back to those customers and
finding new customers, and continue to test these same questions, while demonstrating
prototypes, and early demos.
I hope this helps.
Best, David
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I'll quickly say these over, these will inconclusively help you to succeed in your startup.
How about we begin with Funding. Most and each startup needs funding to get some place.
Most startups will close because of money issues. This is the reason funding is fundamental to
any startup. There are more than 500 crowdfunding stages over the web that help you group
finance your startup. Some of which incorporate; Kickstarter, IndieGoGo, CrowdFunder,
RocketHub and significantly more!
Presently, the Product Nature. As a startup you must recognize what the product or
administration you're putting forth. Is it a thing or an administration that your client might want
to have or is it an unquestionable requirement have product or administration. Having this
basic rationale on your product nature you can really tempt your clients.
Time Management is by a wide margin a super vital thing required by startups. It's not difficult
to ace either! A genuine business person will have the best Time Management, knowing when
to complete for the day and when to not. Most marriage breakups are because of
mismanagement of time, so don't simply concentrate on beginning your business! Have a
basic calendar you can clear your brain from business for quite a while and go through it with
family and companions.
One Man Show. Most businessmen will startup their business without anyone else, this can be
to a great degree unpleasant for yourself and can prompt business disappointment. To prevent
this from happening, you require someone to help you, take a portion of the weight off your
shoulders. This comes in with the time management above, sparing time and being careful.
Running Costs relying upon your startup your product might or not over keep running in costs.
At that point after all your diligent work, your business to fizzle. To prevent this from happening
is to arrange well ahead of time, deal with your needs and have an arrangement to verify this
doesn't happen
A few more points that wasn't mentioned in this article are; One Man Show. Most startups are
run single handed, and startup founders think they can do this all by themselves, however the
real facts are that it will effect your business quite a lot. So, you need a mate and some men to
sail your ship more smoothly and safely.
The best recommendation I can give you is to find a technical co-founder who knows
how to build such a product, and can help you hire a technical team. Best, David
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Best, David
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http://www.howtofindajobin1...
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Apologies for the 3 month delayed comment as well :-) Remember, the startup process
is a PROCESS. Being a Doctor is considered the "practice of medicine", as no one
knows it all, and it's a forever learning process. Same with startups. Each is different
and will have its own trajectory.
Entrepreneurs are famous for doing it all alone, all by themselves. It's completely
normal to have hiccups in your startup feel like a reflection of you, because your startup
is YOUR baby :-) Having an objective sounding board (advisors, consultants, board), a
cheerleading squad (friends, spouse, early adopters) and a safe place to debrief,
download and be heard (a Coach's role) are critical support structure for entreprenurs.
Www.charliekingcoaching.com
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Sorry to bash down on your start up, I'm only being truthful. The idea is fundamentally
sound. I fully agree there needs to be a new craigslist that offers more, but make the
idea your own. With modifications to the navigation of the page, and some major
benefits to a user to access your page, it may work.
I'm only a novice and don't even have my own start up, but the reason is I'm looking for
the perfect idea, That viral idea. Best of luck with your ventures.
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These comments all make sense, the running out of cash is so true, be careful of this pitfall!.
Great post!
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