Midi-aquatique (GRIL-UQÀM)

May 4th 2018

Naíla Barbosa da Costa Climate change and aquatic communities:

Supervisor: Jesse Shapiro
(UdeM)
how far can we go with predictions?
Co-supervisor: Gregor Fussmann
What is the relative contribution of
(McGill) ecological vs. evolutionary responses?
 Climate change impacts on aquatic
Overview environments
• Common environmental changes in ocean and freshwater

Climate change How do aquatic communities respond to

these changes?
• Can we predict communities responses?
Environment • Main changing trends of aquatic communities

Ecological and evolutionary contributions to

communities responses
• Convergence of ecological and evolutionary time-scales
• EVO:ECO components of a response
• Will rapid evolution save current biodiversity?
 Climate change impacts on aquatic
Overview environments
• Common environmental changes in ocean and freshwater

Climate change How do aquatic communities respond to

these changes?
• Can we predict community responses?
Environment • Main changing trends of aquatic communities

Ecological and evolutionary contributions to

communities responses
Ecology • Convergence of ecological and evolutionary time-scales
• EVO:ECO components of a response
• Will rapid evolution save current biodiversity?
 Climate change impacts on aquatic
Overview environments
• Common environmental changes in ocean and freshwater

Climate change How do aquatic communities respond to

these changes?
• Can we predict community responses?
Environment • Main changing trends of aquatic communities

Ecological and evolutionary contributions to

community responses
Ecology Evolution • Convergence of ecological and evolutionary time-scales
• EVO:ECO components of a response
• Will rapid evolution save current biodiversity?
Climate change on ocean
• Warming of ocean upper layers

• Stronger stratification

• Ocean “oligotrophication”
 Warming on ocean
+0.6 °C over the past 100 years in ocean upper layers

Surface temperature anomaly for January 2010 relative

to the mean for 1951–1980
Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno (2010) Science
Stratification è Oligotrophication

Warming of upper layers è stratification

Stratification è Oligotrophication

Warming of upper layers è stratification

Less mixing è low nutrients availability

Low productive oceanic areas

Polvina et al. (2008) Geophys. Res. Lett

Warming on freshwater
• Increased surface temperature and
reduced ice cover

• Stronger stratification

• Freshwater eutrophication
 Summer water temperature
• Mean temperature increase of 0.34 °C/10yrs
• 235 globally distributed lakes between 1985 and 2009

O’Reilly et al. (2015) Geophys. Res. Lett.

 Source: NASA

Reduced ice cover on lakes

• Only in the Great Lakes, winter ice cover
has declined by 71% from 1973-2010

Annual-mean lake ice area for Great Lakes (Wang et al., 2012 Journal of Climate)
 Shorter periods of ice cover
• Magnuson et al. (2000) Science: L
a
• 39 lakes and rivers surveyed t
e
r
• Freeze dates: trend of 5.8 days per
100 years later
• Ice breakup dates: trend of 6.5 days
per 100 years earlier

E
a
r
l
i
e
r
 Stronger stratification è eutrophication
• Surface warming è deep lakes remain stratified longer
• Stronger stratification (oxygen depletion in deep layers) è P released from sediment
• Enhanced P internal load

Epilimnion
• Reinforce freshwater eutrophication
O2

Hypolimnion
P
O2 depletion P
P

P
Yankova et al. (2017) Scient. Rep.
Jeppesen et al. (2009) J. Environ. Qual. P
Sediment
 More cyanobacterial blooms
• Eutrophication
• Warming
• Stratification

• Alert:
• Risk of toxic blooms
• Enhanced emission of
methane and nitrous oxide

DelSontro et al. (2018) L&O Letters

Lürling et al. (2017) Toxins
Harmful Algal Bloom in Western Basin of Lake Erie: September 20, 2017
Paerl and Paul (2012) Water Res.
Watson et al. (1996) Limnol. Oceanogr. Photo Credit: Aerial Associates Photography, Inc. by Zachary Haslick, Available in NOAA
 Marine vs freshwater
environments

Surface warming

Stratification

Oligotrophication vs. Eutrophication

 Marine vs freshwater
environments

Surface warming

Stratification

Oligotrophication vs. Eutrophication

+CO2 +DOM
Ocean acidification Lakes brownification
How are aquatic communities
impacted by these changes?
Can we predict their
responses?
 Full predictions depend on how
interactions among species will be affected
in each changing environment
 Full predictions depend on how
interactions among species will be affected
in each changing environment

General trends in species

responses to climate change
help on finding predictions
 General trend:
“Global warming
benefits the small”

• Reduction of
communities body size

Daufresne et al. (2009) PNAS

 Hypotheses explaining
community body size
reduction:

• 1. Increased proportion of
smaller species

1 2 3 4

Daufresne et al. (2009) PNAS

 Hypotheses explaining
community body size
reduction:

• 1. Increased proportion of
smaller species
• 2. Within population:
decreased mean body size

1 2 3 4

Daufresne et al. (2009) PNAS

 Hypotheses explaining
community body size
reduction:

• 1. Increased proportion of
smaller species
• 2. Within population:
decreased mean body size
• 3. Increased proportion of
juveniles 1 2 3 4

Daufresne et al. (2009) PNAS

 Hypotheses explaining
community body size
reduction:

• 1. Increased proportion of
smaller species
• 2. Within population:
decreased mean body size
• 3. Increased proportion of
juveniles 1 2 3 4
• 4. Reduction of individual
body size
Daufresne et al. (2009) PNAS
 Expected
Today With climate change
When the climate change
The cascade effect in
freshwater

• Smaller fish (+)

Increased
• Zooplankton (-) zooplankton
predation

• Phytoplankton (+) Reduced

grazing
pressure

Jeppesen et al. (2010) Hydrobiologia

Jeppesen et al. (2014) J. Limnol.
 The impact in the
marine food web

• Warming + oligotrophication
è selection of small cells in
the phytoplankton

• Increased importance of
picophytoplankton

Flombaum et al. (2013) PNAS

Morán et al. (2010) Glob. Change Biol.
Cyanobacteria Prochlorococcus marina
Falkowski and Oliver (2007) Nature Rev. Microbiol
 The impact in the
marine food web

• Decline in primary
productivity

• Cascade effect: predicted

declines in fisheries yields
by more than 20% globally
(nearly 60% in the North
Atlantic)

Morán et al. (2010) Glob. Change Biol.

Falkowski and Oliver (2007) Nature Rev. Microbiol
Moore et al. (2018) Science
 Impacts in the
biological carbon
pump (ocean) Reduced productivity: ↓ CO2 import

• Low productivity: reduced

potential for carbon
sequestration -

López-Urrutia et al. (2006) PNAS

Wohlers et al. (2009) PNAS
Morán et al. (2010) Glob. Change Biol. Falkowski and Oliver (2007)
Sarmento et al. (2010) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B
 Impacts in the Increased respiration: ↑ CO2 production
biological carbon
pump (ocean) Reduced productivity: ↓ CO2 import

• Respiration is more
sensitive than photosynthesis
to changes in temperature -
+
• Bacterial production is
predicted to increase, as well
as grazing rates on bacteria

López-Urrutia et al. (2006) PNAS

Wohlers et al. (2009) PNAS
Morán et al. (2010) Glob. Change Biol. Falkowski and Oliver (2007)
Sarmento et al. (2010) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B
 General trend:
changes in species
distribution

• As temperate zones get

warmer, species are
shifting or expanding
northward (to higher
latitudes)
The successively larger shaded areas represent extent of the 20°C isotherm for decadal
averages of the 1990s (brown), the 2090s (yellow), and the 2290s (red)

Parmesan and Yohe (2003) Nature Moore et al. (2018) Science

 Climate change alters
the effectiveness of
abiotic filters

• Cylindrospermopsis expansion:
• Preference for ↑ temperature
• Originally described for
tropical and subtropical
regions

Countries where C. raciborskii presence was reported with strains

producing cylindrospermopsin or analogs (red) and PSP toxins (blue).
Antunes et al. (2015) Front. Microbiol.

Cylindrospermopsis sp.(Phycokey)
 General trend:
uncoupled trophic
interactions
Climate change è trophic mismatch

Earlier seasonal events

Change in prey phenology

Predator not always follow it

Edwards and Richardson (2004) Nature

Winder and Schindler (2004) Ecology
Walther et al. (2002) Nature
 General trend:
uncoupled trophic
interactions
• Warming affects synchrony between
phytoplankton and zooplankton
populations

• 40 years (1962-2002) study in Lake

Washington (USA)

Winder and Schindler (2004) Ecology

 Seasonal changes

• Earlier stratification
• Earlier diatoms bloom
• The protozoan Keratella
followed the trend Keratella

• But not Daphnia

Daphnia

Winder and Schindler (2004) Ecology

 Fitness ~ ability to
track changes in
timing

• Long-term decline in Daphnia

populations

Winder and Schindler (2004) Ecology

 Fitness ~ ability to
track changes in
timing

• Long-term decline in Daphnia

populations

• Keratella density and egg

production didn’t change
over time

Winder and Schindler (2004) Ecology Keratella, the winner

 How far can we go in terms of predictions?

Ecological change Prediction

1) Body size reduction Freshwater: (-) zooplankton / (+) phytoplankton
Ocean: ↓ productivity in all trophic levels, ↓ C sequestration
 How far can we go in terms of predictions?

Ecological change Prediction

1) Body size reduction Freshwater: (-) zooplankton / (+) phytoplankton
Ocean: ↓ productivity in all trophic levels, ↓ C sequestration
2) Shift in species range Temperate and polar zones: new invasive species; native
species with reduced range
Tropical and equatorial zones: selection of heat tolerant spp
 How far can we go in terms of predictions?

Ecological change Prediction

1) Body size reduction Freshwater: (-) zooplankton / (+) phytoplankton
Ocean: ↓ productivity in all trophic levels, ↓ C sequestration
2) Shift in species range Temperate and polar zones: new invasive species; native
species with reduced range
Tropical and equatorial zones: selection of heat tolerant spp
3) Trophic mismatch Potential reduction/loss of keystone species, possible
selection of predators with generalist behavior
What is driving changes in vs.
populations? Keratella

Daphnia

Why do some species adapt and

others not?

What is the relative contribution

of ecological vs. evolutionary Small species
responses? vs.

Large species
Ecological vs. evolutionary responses
Disturbance
(environmental change)

Ecology Evolution
(population dynamics and (changes in heritable
community interactions) traits over generations)
Ecological vs. evolutionary responses
Disturbance
(environmental change)

Ecology ECO-EVO
Evolution
(population dynamics and (changes in heritable
community interactions) traits over generations)
EVO-ECO

Both ecological and evolutionary responses interact, especially when we

consider rapid evolution (i.e., in short time scales)
 Rapid evolution and ecology
• Convergence of ecological and evolutionary time scales
• Confirmed by studies of evolution in action
• Rapid evolution: species adaptation in face of fast environmental changes
• Evolutionary rescue and evolutionary tracking
• “It’s not just microbes who can evolve fast enough to adapt their way out of
trouble” (Ellner 2013, Funct. Biol.)
 Example of rapid evolution
• Onychodiaptomus sanguineus (copepod) active in fall and winter
• During spring è females produce diapause eggs è escape from predation
• Strong selection on switch (diapausing) date

Hairston & Walton (1986) PNAS © Ian Gardiner

 Example of rapid evolution
• Onychodiaptomus sanguineus (copepod) active in fall and winter
• During spring è females produce diapause eggs è escape from predation
• Strong selection on switch (diapausing) date:
• Switch date is strongly defined by timing and intensity of fish predation in the
prior year (Ellner et al. 1999)

After 2 years without predation

Switch date > 26 days later

Hairston & Walton (1986) PNAS
 Measuring EVO:ECO contributions
• How much of this ecological response is due to evolution?

𝑑𝑋 𝜕𝑋 𝑑𝑘 𝜕𝑋 𝑑𝑧
= +
𝑑𝑡 𝜕𝑘 𝑑𝑡 𝜕𝑧 𝑑𝑡

Environment

© Ian Gardiner
Ecology Evolution
Hairston et al. (2005) Ecol. Lett.
 Measuring EVO:ECO contributions
• How much of this ecological response is due to evolution?

𝑑𝑋 𝜕𝑋 𝑑𝑘 𝜕𝑋 𝑑𝑧
= +
𝑑𝑡 𝜕𝑘 𝑑𝑡 𝜕𝑧 𝑑𝑡

- X is the ecological property: annual egg production

Ecology
Hairston et al. (2005) Ecol. Lett.
 Measuring EVO:ECO contributions
• How much of this ecological response is due to evolution?

𝑑𝑋 𝜕𝑋 𝑑𝑘 𝜕𝑋 𝑑𝑧
= +
𝑑𝑡 𝜕𝑘 𝑑𝑡 𝜕𝑧 𝑑𝑡
ECO

Environment
- X is the ecological property: annual egg production
- k is the environmental variable affecting X: timing and intensity
of fish predation
Ecology
Hairston et al. (2005) Ecol. Lett.
 Measuring EVO:ECO contributions
• How much of this ecological response is due to evolution?

𝑑𝑋 𝜕𝑋 𝑑𝑘 𝜕𝑋 𝑑𝑧
= +
𝑑𝑡 𝜕𝑘 𝑑𝑡 𝜕𝑧 𝑑𝑡
ECO EVO

Environment
- X is the ecological property: annual egg production
- k is the environmental variable affecting X: timing and intensity
of fish predation
- z is the heritable trait evolving in response: switch date Ecology Evolution
Hairston et al. (2005) Ecol. Lett.
 Strong selection is not enough if timescales don’t match
• Mean evolutionary contribution is ¼ of the environmental contribution!
• Mismatch between environmental and evolutionary time scales:
• Predation risk of the year before can be different of the risk in the current year
• Evolutionary response is not fast enough to track environmental changes

Ellner (2013) Funct. Ecol. © Ian Gardiner

 Species in danger
• Rapid evolution is important, but it won’t define species response if
environmental changes are too fast
• Current rate of anthropogenic changes in the environment è may exceed
populations capacity (ecological or evolutionary responses) to deal with
environmental change è leading to high extinction rates (Holocene extinction)
• E.g.: local evolutionary responses are unlikely to mitigate the negative impacts
of future temperature rises on coral reefs

Hugles et al. (2018) Nature

Chevin et al. (2010) PLoS Biol.
Parmesan (2006) Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst.
Donner et al (2005) Glob. Chan. Biol. Coral bleaching. Source: The Guardian
 • We observe a few trends in communities
response to climate change:
• Body size reduction
Take-home • Northward shift in species range
message • Trophic mismatch
• We cannot go very far in predictions since
they will depend on how all interactions
among species will change
 • The eco-evolutionary contribution to
these responses will vary according to the
system studied and on how ecological and
Take-home evolutionary time scales converge
message • It’s likely that these responses won’t be
enough to maintain current ecosystem
services provided by aquatic communities
 Thanks!
Questions?