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World Class Base and Precious Metal Deposits—A Quantitative Analysis

Article  in  Economic Geology · February 1995

DOI: 10.2113/gsecongeo.90.1.88

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EconomicGeology
Vol. 90, 1995, pp. 88-104

World ClassBaseandPreciousMetal Deposits A QuantitativeAnalysis

DONALD A. SINGER

U.S. GeologicalSurvey,Mail Stop984, 345 Middlefield l:{oad,MenloPark, California 94025

Abstract

Over 62 percent of the 193,000 metric tons of gold discoveredto date is located in four countries
and more than 68 percent occursin four typesof mineral deposits.About 55 percent of the 1,740,000
metric tons of silver found is in four countriesand 45 percent is in four types of deposits.Fifty-six
percent of the 1.52 billion metric tonsof discoveredcopper is from four countriesand four types of
depositscontain88 percent of the total. Over 50 percent of both the 713,000,000 metric tonsof zinc
and 349,000,000 metric tons of lead discoveredto date come from four countriesand 70 percent of
bothmetalsoccurin fourtypesof deposits. All discovered goldwouldfit in a cubewith a heightof 22
m, silverin a 55-m cube,copperin a 550-m cube,zincin a 460-m cube,andleadin a 310-m cube.
At least 74 percent of gold, silver, zinc, and lead is in depositshavingaveragegradesabovethe
respectivemediangradesand44 percentof copperisin depositswith averagegradesabovethe median
gradeof all deposits.Lower gradedepositscontainlesstotalmetalthanhighergradedeposits.Tonnage
of mineralizedrockis an evenbetter predictorof containedmetal with over 96 percentof eachmetal's
total residingin depositshavinggreater than mediansize and between 47 and 79 percent of metal
containedin the largest 10 percent of deposits.
World classdeposits,definedasthe upper 10 percentof depositsin termsof containedmetal,account
for over 86 percent of all gold, 79 percent of silver, 84 percent of copper, 71 percent of zinc, and 73
percentof lead.Thesegiantdepositscontainat least100 metrictons(3.2 Moz) gold,2,400 metrictons
(77 Moz) silver,2 million metrictonscopper, 1.7 millionmetric tonszinc, or 1 millionmetric tonslead.
Mineral depositsoccurrarelyin the earth'scrustandlargeonesare especiallyuncommon.Thisanal-
ysisshowsthat onlythe unusuallylargedepositscansignificantlyaffectsupply.

Introduction In this paper, an attempt is made to answerthe above

WHEN an announcement is made that another world class
mineral deposit has been discovered,one wonders how
canthere be somanysuchdeposits.By what frameof ref-
erence is a deposit called "world class"?In which ways
might the depositbe consideredimportant?Is the deposit
large for the country it is in? Do somekinds of deposits
dominatethe potential supplyof particularmetals?How
much metal hasalreadybeen found?Are mostof the re-
sourcesin low-gradedeposits?Does the large numberof
smalldepositsaddup to a large amountof metal?
Someof thesequestionshavebeen addressedin previ-
ous studies.Estimatesof base and precious metal and
other mineral resources are available in Brobst and Pratt
(1973), but only for zinc is there an estimateof pastpro-
duction(Wedow et al., 1973). Bache(1987) provideses-
timatesfor goldproductionand resourcesby countryand
geologicsetting.In an annualaccountingof reservesand
resourcesof baseand preciousmetalsand other minerals,
estimatesof pastproductionof goldare provided(Lucas,
1994). On the basisof datasetsof severalmetals,potential
metal supplywas shownto be dominatedby the largest
tonnagedepositsof the largestdeposittypes(COMRATE,
1975; Singerand DeYoung, 1980; DeYoungand Singer,
1981).
Laznicka (1983) proposedusing the ratio of the total
economicmetal in a depositto crustalabundanceof that
metal (clark value) to classifya depositinto one of seven
accumulationsizesincludinggiant and supergiant.Many
of the papersin a recent compendiumon giantore depos-
its (Whiting et al., 1993) containdefinitionsof giant de-
positsbasedon Laznicka'ssuggestion.
questionsfor the baseand preciousmetalscopper, zinc,
lead, gold, and silver. After a discussion
about the data
used here, the total amount of each metal discovered to
date is examined.A descriptionof the spatialconcentra-
tion of these metalsby country is followed by an analysis
of the metal contentsby deposittype. Examinationof the
concentrationof eachmetalby gradeclasses addresses the
questionof whether depositswith lower gradesare the
primary sourcesof metals.The commonbelief that small
(asdeterminedby tonnageof mineralizedrock) deposits
are importantis considered.One of the difficultiesin de-
terminingwhat is a world classdepositis the need to con-
sider grades(perhapsmany) and mineralizedrock ton-
nagessimultaneously. An attemptis madeto resolvethis
problemby examiningthe distributionof depositsby con-
tainedmetal.The intent in thispaperis to providea mod-
ern perspectiveon the importanceof different deposit
types,a country'sresources,a newly discovereddeposit,
or a region'sundiscoveredresource.
The Data
Data usedin thisstudyrepresentmineraldeposits--not
mineral occurrencesor geochemicallyanomalousrocks.
A mineraldepositis a mineralconcentrationof sufficient
sizeandgradethat it might,underthe mostfavorablecir-
cumstances,be consideredto have economicpotential
(Cox et al., 1986). Thus, known depositsare from well-
exploredbodiesthat someonethought,at leastin the ex-
plorationphase,might be economicto develop.For vari-
ousreasons,someof thesedepositshavenot been mined.
Data gatheredfor each depositincludeaveragegrades

0361-0128/95/1659/0088-1754.00 88
 QUANTITATIVEANALYSISOF WORLDCLASSDEPOSITS 89

of eachmetal of possibleeconomicinterestand the asso- feet and a kilometer is 0.6214 miles. Monetary units are
ciated tonnagebasedon the total production,reserves, expressedin United Statesdollars.
andresourcesat the lowestpossiblecutoffgrade.Where How Much Metal Has Been Found?
bothreservesandgeologicresource(geologicreserve)es-
timates are available, geologic resource estimatesare Gold is the only metal for which recent attemptshave
used. These data represent estimatesof the endowment been made to estimate how much has been found
of eachknowndepositin orderto allowfor the possibility throughout recorded history. Bache (1987) estimated
of lower productioncostsor higher commodityprices. that 100,000 t of gold had been producedthrough 1977
Even with lower costsor higherpriceshowever,someof and more than 7,000 t were knownin depositsdiscovered
the metalwill remainin the ground;100 percentrecovery between 1977 and 1987. The U.S. Bureau of Mines (Lu-
is not possiblebecausethe metal-bearingmateriallacks cas, 1994) estimatedthat 114,000 t of gold were pro-
spatialcontinuityor it cannotbe mined for physicalor duced from historictimes through 1993 and that 57,000
economic reasons. t existedasa reservebase.Resultsof this studyshowthat
In a compilationof thissizeit isnot possibleto list all of approximately193,000 t (6 billion troy oz) of gold has
the data sources.Among the many sourcesof data are a been foundto date (Table 1); thistotal exceedsthe sums
numberof majorreports(Emmons,1937; Koschmannand of productionandresourcesin previousreports.
Bergendahl,1968; Singeret al., 1980, 1993; Yamadaet In a similar fashion, the amounts of metal contained in
al., 1980; Einaudi, 1981; Einaudi et al., 1981; Laznicka, discovereddepositsof silver (Table 2), copper (Table 3),
1981; Mosieret al., 1983, 1986a, 1986b;DeYounget al., zinc (Table 4), andlead (Table 5) are summarizedin Table
1985; Menzie and Mosier, 1985; Orris and Bliss, 1985; 6. In contrastto our estimateof 1,520 Mt of copper(Table
Anhaeusseret al., 1986; Graybeal et al., 1986; Bache, 3), COMRATE (1975) reported reservesplusproduction
1987; Blissand Jones,1988; EconomicGeology,1988; estimatesof about400 Mt of copper.Wedow et al. (1973)
Dunning et al., 1989; Meinert, 1989; Hughes, 1990; estimated that a total of 385 Mt of zinc had been mined or
Bliss,1992; Loch, 1992; Menzie and Singer,1993). Ad- remained as reservesin known deposits,comparedwith
ditionalinformationwasobtainedfromcolleagues andre- our estimate of about 713 Mt.
centissuesof periodicalssuchasthe NorthernMiner, Skil- For peoplewho are not knowledgeableaboutthe min-
lings'MiningReview,MiningJournal,andthe SEG(Soci- eral industry,it is often difficult to understandthe num-
ety of EconomicGeologists) Newsletter. bers presentedhere. In order to provide someperspec-
Despite a concertedeffort, gradeand tonnagedata on tive for thesepeople,severaldifferentwaysto represent
depositsin somecountriesaremissing.In somecases,only the numbersareprovidedin Table 6. When viewingthese
containedmetal estimateswere available;in other cases, measures,it shouldbe rememberedthat only part of the
no numericestimateswere available.Someof the "depos- metal has been produced, that not all of the metal will
its" representdistricts,suchasthe Yana-Kolymaplacers necessarily be produced,andthat the pricesandcosts(not
in Russia,whichcovera verylargeregion.The mostnota- provided) will continueto fluctuatethrough time. The
quantity of gold discoveredwould fill a cube 22 m (72
ble casesof missingdataarefromChinaandmanyrepub-
lics of the former Soviet Union. In addition, specific feet) on a side (Table 6), or covera soccerfield to a height
of 2 m. With a gold price of $400 per ounce, 193,000 t
sourcesof pre-1492 goldproductionare frequentlynot would be valued at 2,500 billion dollars.
clear.For example,a significant amountof goldhasvari-
Another perspectiveon the amountof metal found can
ouslybeenreportedto be fromsouthernEgyptor north-
be gainedby comparingthe amountdiscoveredin mineral
ern Sudan;in this report, this gold productionis attrib- depositsto the total amountthat might be availablein the
uted to Sudan.Data on the pre-1492 productionand earth'scrust.Becausemostmetal is mined at depthsless
manyof the verylargegold-bearing districtsarereported than 1 km from the surface, the amount of metal in the
ascontainedmetalandare not includedin the analyses of upper I km of the continentalcrustis appropriatefor this
metal by gradesor tonnages.Recordsof pre-1492 pro- comparison.Estimatesof these crustalmasses(Table 6)
ductionof copper,zinc, lead, and silvertypicallycould are derived from a table publishedby Erickson(1973).
notbe found,but the amounts producedare likely to be The ratio of this crustal mass estimate to the amount of
dwarfedby morerecentproductionanddiscoveries. metalfound(Table6) isaffectedby severalfactors:(1) the
The quality and quantity of geologicdescriptionsof tendency of the metal to concentrate in desirable (eco-
mineraldepositsvary widely.Larger and morerecently nomicallysought)minerals,(2) the tendencyof thesede-
discovereddepositstendto be well described.Smallerde- sirablemineralsto be concentratedtogether, (3) effort
positsand depositsminedout long agoor thosevery re- madein lookingfor deposits,and, (4) efficiencyof explo-
centlydiscovered tend to be poorlydescribed.Geologic ration.
descriptionsof depositsfromChinaandthe formerSoviet Ratiosof crustalmassto metal in known depositsof sil-
Union are scarceand frequentlyare in a form difficultto ver, copper, and lead are quite similar at about 15,000
understand. (Table6), but goldhasa ratioof onlyhalfthisvalue.About
Gradesandtonnages arepresentedherein metricunits. 15 to 20 percentof goldin knowndepositsis,however,at
A metric ton (t) is 2,204.6 pounds,a metric ton contains depthsgreater than I km. Taking this deeper gold into
32,150.7 troy ounces,and gramsper metric ton (g/t) account,the ratio for goldis about9,000, somewhatmore
equal34.286 timestroy ouncesper ton.A meteris 3.281 comparableto silver,copper,and lead. The ratio of zinc
90 SINGER

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 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSISOF WORLD CLASSDEPOSITS 91

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 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF WORLD CLASSDEPOSITS 95

TABLE6. Mass,Volume,andValue of DiscoveredBaseandPreciousMetalsComparedto CrustalMass

Metal in upper 1 Ratioof metalin 1 km

Total metalin Height of cube Height of metal Value km continental crustto metalin
Metal deposits
(Mr) containing
metal(m) onsoccer
field(m) (billiondollars
•) crust(billiontg) knowndeposits
Gold 0.193 22 2 2,500 1.4 7,200
Silver 1.74 55 33 280 26.8 15,400
Copper 1,520 550 34,000 3,000 20,800 13,700
Zinc 713 460 20,000 630 33,500 47,000
Lead 349 310 6,100 150 5,500 15,800

Goldat $400/oz,silverat $5/oz,copperat $0.9/1b,zincat $0.4/1b,leadat $0.2fib

SourceErickson(1973)

metal in the upper I km of continentalcrustto zinc metal
discoveredin mineral depositsis about three times as
large as the sameratio for silver,copper,and lead. Be-
causelead and zinc are frequentlyfoundand minedto-
gether,it is unlikelythat explorationeffortsor e$ciency
haveanythingto dowith thelargedifferencein theratios.
The difference maybe dueto thetendencyof zincto form
nonsulfidemineralsor perhapsthe continentalcrustal
abundance estimateof 81 g/t is toohigh.
Where Has the Metal Been Found?
In Tables I to 5, countries are listed in order of decreas-
ing metal content(includingpastproduction)in known
deposits.The category"others" refersto all other coun-
tries.Over 40 percentof all golddiscoveredis from South
Africa. Uzbekistan'sgold is primarily in gold-rich por-
phyry copperdepositsand the very large Muruntau dis-
trict. Both Yugoslaviaand Czechoslovakia were kept in
their pre-1990 combinedstatesfor metal tabulation due
to thedi$culty of determiningwhichof the newcountries
containedthe deposits.
Althoughdepositsof all five metalshavebeen foundin
a largenumberof countries,over 50 percentof the total
amountof gold,silver,copper,zinc, and lead is concen-
trated in four countries;the United Statesand Canada are
in the top four of eachmetal,Australiais one of the top
fourcountriesin discoveredgold,zinc,andlead,Chinais
in the top fourcountriesin discovered
zincandlead.Even
if completeestimateswere availablefor Chinaandthe for-
mer Soviet Union, dominance of a small number of coun-
tries in discoveredgold, silver, copper, zinc, and lead
would probablynot change.Similardominanceby four
countriesof annualproductionof gold, copper,and lead
wasshownby DeYounget al. (1984) in their analysisof
market concentration.
Partof the reasonfor the largeamountof metalsin some
countriescan be attributedto the countries'large areas.
Large areas,all other thingsbeingequal,allow more di-
versegeologicenvironments.By proratingthe metalover
the areaof theseregions(metalcontent/area),a different
basisfor comparisonof regionsis obtained(lastcolumn,
Tables 1-5). The high unit regionalweightsof gold in
SouthAfrica andcopperin Chile are to be expected.Uz-
bekistanhas the secondhighestunit regionalweight of
gold;Polandhasthe highestfor silverandthe third high-
est for copper and zinc. SeveralEuropeancountriestop
the unit regionalweight list of zinc and lead. The spatial
clusteringof high valuesof lead and zinc in European
countriesand gold, silver,and copperin countriesin the
circum-Pacific suggestbroadregionalpatternsrelatedto
platetectonicsettings.Volcano-plutonic magmaticarcsor
continentalmarginsare presentin manyof the countries
that have high unit regionalweights.The plate tectonic
settingof other countrieswith high unit regionalweights
is not clear.

ß
ß
PERCENT OF DEPOSITS
PERCENT OF GOLD
l PERCENT
OF
DEPOSITS
PERCENT OF SILVER

Median grade = 25

DEPOSIT AVERAGE GRADE CLASS (GRAMS/TON GOLD)

DEPOSITAVERAGEGRADE CLASS(GRAMS/'FONSILVER)
FIG. 1. Percentof 1,924 gold-bearingdepositsby gradeclassand
percent of 155,000 metric tons of gold by grade class.Grade class FIG. 2. Percentof 1,347 silver-bearingdepositsby gradeclassand
= rangeof averagedepositgrades. percentof 1,460,000 metrictonsof silverby gradeclass.
96
Mediangrade = 1
BPERCENT
OF
DEPOSITS
ß PERCENT OF COPPER
_ . •
DEPOSIT AVERAGE GRADE CLASS (PERCENT COPPER)
FIG. 3. Percentof 1,325 copper-bearingdepositsby gradeclassand
percentof 1,510,000,000 metric tonsof copperby gradeclass.
Distribution of Metal by DepositType
The concentration of metals in a few countries is a re-
flectionof the geologicenvironmentsin thesecountries.
Becausemineral deposittypes are classifiedin part by
geologicenvironment,examinationof the distributionof
thesemetalsby deposittype could provide valuablein-
sightinto why the metalsare spatiallyconcentratedand
in which geologicenvironmentswe shouldexpectfuture
discoveries.
Depositsclassifiedin Cox and Singer(1986) and Bliss
(1992) were usedas the primary source;only those de-
positsthat couldbe easilyclassifiedwere addedto those
typed in thesepublications.The "unclassified"category
(Tables1-5) includesbothdepositsfor whichinformation
is too sparseto classifythe deposits,and depositsfor
which the classificationsin Cox and Singer (1986) and
Bliss(1992) are not appropriate.In the latter group are
very important districtssuch as Coeur d'Alene, Idaho;
Franklin, New Jersey;the nonporphyryparts of Butte,
Montana;Sudbury,Ontario, Canada;Potosi,Bolivia;and
other well-studiedbut cliffcultto classifydepositsor dis-
tricts. Deposit types that contained relatively small
amountsof metalwere placedin the "others" category.
PERCENT OF ZINC Mediangrade = 3.9
DEPOSIT AVERAGE GRADE CLASS (PERCENT ZINC)
FIG. 4. Percentof 884 zinc-bearingdepositsby gradeclassandper-
cent of 680,000,000 metrictonsof zincby gradeclass.
SINGER
Mediangrade = 2.1
ßPERCENT
OF
DEPOSITS
ß PERCENT OF LEAD
DEPOSITAVERAGEGRADE CLASS (PERCENT LEAD)
FIG. 5. Percentof 660 lead-bearingdepositsby gradeclassandper-
cent of 310,000,000 metric tonsof leadby gradeclass.
Approximately10,800 t in the unclassifiedcategory
representsgold producedfrom unknownsourcesbefore
1492. Perhapshalf of the 24,400 t of goldin the unclassi-
fied categorywasfromplacersor residualdepositssuchas
saprolites.Thusabout60 percentof the total golddiscov-
eredprobablycamefrommodernplacers,residualdepos-
its, or the ancientplacersin SouthAfrica. Only 19 percent
of all gold is in deposittypesthat are clearly igneousre-
lated, suchasthe porphyries,skarns,epithermals,massive
sulfides,and replacements.About 6 percent of all discov-
ered gold is from epithermaldeposits.Excludingancient
and modern placers and the unclassifiedcategory,the
clearlyigneous-relateddeposittypescontain54 percent
of all gold:this jumps to 99 percentif deposittypesof
questionableigneous affinities are included, such as
Homestake(Archcangold), low sulfideAu quartz vein
(Mother Lode gold), sediment-hosted Au (Carlin), Olym-
pic Dam, and sedimentaryexhalative.
Golddepositscanbe classifiedon the basisof the chem-
istry of the hydrothermalfluid that transportedand de-
positedthe metal. Samplesof suchfluids are found in
smallliquid-vaporinclusionsin gangueand ore minerals
in the deposits.PhillipsandPowell(1993) arguethat 90
percentof all nonplacergoldminedto dateisfromdepos-
its that containedlow-salinity(< 10 wt % NaCI equiv)flu-
ids. On the basisof the data summarizedhere (Table 1),
about82 percentof all goldknown,whetherminedor not,
can be categorizedas from low-salinityfluids;modern
placersandunclassified deposittypesareexcluded.About
18 percent of all non(modern)-placer gold that can be
classified by deposittype is in high-salinitydepositscon-
tainingbasemetalswhich is consistentwith the Phillips
andPowell(1993) conclusions on the importanceof low-
salinity,andcommonlyhigh CO•.,fluidsin the formation
of golddeposits. Placementby PhillipsandPowell(1993)
of the Witwatersranddepositsinto the low-salinitygroup
is critical to these conclusions because the Witwatersrand
depositsaccountfor about60 percentof the total gold
when modern placersand unclassifieddepositsare ex-
cluded.If the Witwatersranddepositsare excludedfrom
 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF WORLD CLASSDEPOSITS 97

TABLE7. MinimumAverageGradeandPercentageof Total Metal in the Richest50 and 10 Percent

of Gold,Silver,Copper,Zinc,andLeadDeposits

Gold Silver Copper Zinc Lead

Richest50% of deposits Minimum averagegrade 3 g/t 25g/t 1% 3.9% 2.1%

Percent total metal 74 77 44 79 78
Richest10% of deposits Minimum averagegrade 18 g/t 360g/t 3% 10% 9%
Percent total metal 12 19 10 24 12

the analysis, 62 percentof goldis fromdeposits thatcon- that areclearlyigneousrelated;excludingthe unclassified

tainedlow salinity. depositscategoryimprovesthis percentageto only 39.
Coeur d'Alene, Idaho; Potosi,Bolivia;nonporphyry The combinationof sedimentaryexhalativeZn-Pb and
copper veinsat Butte, Montana; Cobalt, Ontario; and var- SoutheastMissouri Pb-Zn plus AppalachianZn (also
iousoldproducers in Mexicoaremajorcontributors to the knownasMississippi Valleytype)depositsaccounts for 48
large amountof silverin the unclassified depositscate- percentof all zinc.Only 26 percentof leadiscontainedin
gory.Approximately49 percentof all silveris in deposit deposittypesthat are clearlyigneousrelated;excluding
typesthatcanclearlybe called"igneousrelated."Includ- the unclassified categoryimprovesthispercentageto 32.
ing depositsin the unclassified categorythat are clearly The combinationof sedimentaryexhalativeZn-Pb and
igneousrelated like the above-mentioneddepositsin- SoutheastMissouriPb-Zn plus AppalachianZn deposits
creases the igneous-relatedsilverto 60 percent.About17 accountfor 52 percentof all lead.
percent (excludingunclassifiedtypes) of silver is from It is importantto note that somedepositsrepresented
epithermaldeposits. by a singledistrict or a smallnumber of examplessuch
At least65 percentof all copperis foundin igneous- as quartz-pebbleconglomerate,Olympic Dam, Kipushi,
relateddeposittypes;exclusion of the unclassified
depos- Potosi,and Coeur d'Alene accountfor a significantpro-
its categoryincreasesthe percentageto 71. Porphyry portion of the total known resourcesof eachmetal. The
copper deposits,containing57 percent of all copper, moststrikingof theseis the dominanceof quartz-pebble
dominateall other deposittypes.Sediment-hosted cop- conglomerateon the gold total. Much of the silver total
per, accountingfor 23 percentof all copper,is the most occursin large, difficultto classifydistrictssuchasPotosi
important nonigneousdeposittype. The continuedim- and Coeur d'Alene.
portanceofporphyrycopperandsediment-hosted copper Relatively little diversityof geologicsettingsof gold,
deposits isemphasized by their combinedcontributionof copper,zinc,andleaddepositsisreflectedby the factthat
81 percentwhich is slightlyhigher than the 79 percent twodifferentdeposittypesaccountfor 50 to 81 percentof
totalreportedfor 1972 (COMRATE, 1975). eachmetal(excludingthe unclassified depositscategory).
About34 percentof zincis contained in deposittypes Silvershowsgreaterdiversityin geologicsetting;only 25

ßPERCENT
OF
DEPOSITS
I
ß PERCENT OF GOLD

DEPOSIT SIZE CLASS (MILLIONS TONS)

FIG. 6. Percentof 1,924 gold-bearing

deposits
by tonnageof mineralizedrockclassandpercentof 155,000
metrictonsof goldby tonnageclass.
98 SINGER

ßPERCENT
OF
DEPOSITS
I
ß PERCENT OF SILVER

d d d

DEPOSIT SIZE CLASS (MILMONS TONS)

FIG. 7. Percentof 1,347 silver-bearing

deposits
by tonnageof mineralizedrockclassandpercentof 1,460,000
metrictonsof silverby tonnageclass.

percent of the metal is in its two most prolific deposit
types.
Distribution of Depositsand ContainedMetal by
Deposit AverageGrades
In considerationof the availabilityof mineral resources
or in explorationplanning,informationabout gradesof
knownandundiscovereddepositsis of paramountimpor-
tance.Perhapsdueto verylargeamountsof metalsknown
to exist at low concentrations in the earth's crust, there
is a widespreadbelief that vast quantitiesof metalsare
availableat lowgrades.In additionto significantquestions
raisedby Skinner(1976) aboutmineralogicallimitsto the
realistic availabilityof these metals, there remainsthe
questionof whether large quantitiesof metalsexistat low included for these data.
gradesin mineraldeposits.
Comparisonof the proportionof depositsand the pro-
portion of metals in increasinggrade classes(average
gradesof wholedeposits)providesa wayto examineboth
the frequencyof gradesandthe tendencyof metalsto con-
centrateat certaingrades.As discussedabovein the sec-
tion on the data, averagegradesusedin this analysisare
from mineral depositsand not geochemicalanomalies.In
every case,private or public enterpriseshave invested
considerablemoneyto drill thesedepositsin the belief
thatthey mightbe economicto mine.Someof the grades,
primarilyfrom pastproduction,representthe recovered
grade.However,the majorityof gradesrepresentthe to-
tal of production,reserves,and resourcesat the lowest
possiblecutoffgrade.Thuslossesduringrecoveryare not
Grade classvalues shown in Figures 1 to 5 represent

ßPERCENT
OF
DEPOSITS
ß PERCENT OF COPPER

o o o

DEPOSITSiZE CLASS (MIUJONS TONS)

FIG. 8. Percentof 1,325 copper-bearing

depositsby tonnageof mineralizedrock classand percentof
1,510,000,000 metrictonsof copperby tonnageclass.
 QUANTITATIVE
ANALYSIS
OFWORLD
CLASS
DEPOSITS 99

lePERCENT
OF
DEPOSITS
ß PERCENT OF ZINC

• o o c5 c• c5 • • • •

DEPOSIT SIZE CLASS (MILMONS TONS)

FIG.9. Percentof 884 zinc-bearing

deposits
by tonnageof mineralizedrockclassandpercentof 680,000,000
metric tonsof tonnagezinc by tonnageclass.

lower gradelimits for the classesexceptfor the lowest
classwhich also includeslower values and the highest
classwhich is unbounded.For eachgradeclass,the num-
ber of depositswascountedandthe associated amountof
metal summed;each of these numbers was converted to
its percentageof the total numberof depositsor metric
tons of metal.
The disproportionate amountof goldat gradesbetween
5.6 and 32 g/t (Fig. 1) is largelydue to the influenceof
the quartz-pebblegolddepositsin SouthAfrica.The very
irregular distributionsof depositsand silver (Fig. 2) re-
flect the great diversityof geologicsourcesof silver.Ex-
ceptingthe scarcityof copperat averagegradesbelow
0.32 percent,the proportionof totalmetaltendsto follow
the proportionof deposits(Fig. 3).
There is a tendencyfor a large proportionof metalsto
be concentratedin higher averagegrade classesas dam-
onstratedby 74 to 78 percentof gold, silver,zinc, and
lead in the abovemedianaveragegradeclasses (Table 7)
andby the plots(Figs.1-5). Bothsilverandzinc havea
disproportionate amountof metalin the richest10 per-
cent of deposits(Table 7). Copperdoesnot displaythe
samepattern becauseof the dominantpercentageof
metalin porphyrycopperdeposits(Table3) whichhavea
medianaveragegradethat is lessthan that of the total
sampleof deposits.Thereisnoevidencein thesedatathat
lowergradedeposits aremorecommonthanhighergrade
depositsor that lower grade depositscontain large
amountsof metals; the evidence is the reverse. Without
questionthe earth hasa large numberof geochemical
anomalies or low gradezones.Someof thesebodiescould
be solargethata considerableamountof metalmightexist
at low gradesin the earth'scrust.However,becauseall
typesofexploration enterprises
havenotfoundthesebod-

ßPERCENT
OF
DEPOSITS
ß PERCENT OF LEAD

DEPOSIT S•E C•SS (MILLIONS TONS)

FIC. 10. Percentof 660 lead-bearing

deposits
by tonnageofmineralizedrockclassandpercentof 310,000,000
metric tonsof lead by tonnageclass.
1o o SINGER

TABLE8. SizeasTonnageof MineralizedRockandPercentageof Total Metal in the Largest50 and 10 Percent

of Gold, Silver,Copper,Zinc, andLead Deposits

Gold Silver Copper Zinc Lead

Largest50% of deposits Metric tons(millions) 2 3.5 5.9 3.6 3.7

Percent total metal 98 96 99 96 96
Largest 10% of deposits Metric tons(millions) 74 120 290 41 50
Percent total metal 77 47 79 62 66

iesworthdrilling,we arenot ableto quantifytheir contri- summed;eachof thesenumberswasconvertedto its per-

bution and perhaps should not consider them as re- centageof the total number of depositsor metric tonsof
sources. metal.
Ninety-eightpercent of all gold is in depositsthat have
Distributionof Depositsand ContainedMetal by
Tonnagesof Mineralized Rock
tonnagesat or abovethe median 2 Mt (Fig. 6). The 10
percentof depositswith sizesof 74 Mt or morecontain77
For explorationplanning,planninga country'sdevel- percent of all gold (Table 8). Each metal displaysthis
opment,or consideringpossiblesourcesof metals,the dis- strongpattern. Both the proportionof metalsaboveme-
tribution of depositsizesand the metal contentof differ-
dian sizesof deposits(Table 8) andthe plots(Figs.6-10)
ent size depositsshouldplay an important role. Plans demonstrate the overwhelmingrole of tonnageof miner-
madewith theexpectation thatmanysmalldeposits would alized rock on the potentialsupplyof thesemetals.Less
affecttheforeignexchange ofacountryorthattheymight than four percent of the total amountof metal known is in
affectmetalprices,if developed,needto be considered in depositsthat have a mineralized rock with sizeslessthan
lightof the distribution
of the metalby tonnageof miner- 3.7 Mt. For all of thesemetals,no lessthan 96 percent of
alized rock.
the metal is accountedfor by the largest50 percent of
The proportionof depositsandthe proportionof metals the deposits,whenthe depositsareorderedby tonnageof
in increasingtonnageof mineralizedrockclasses provides mineralized rock.
a way to examinebothfrequencyof tonnagesandpropen-
sityof metalsto concentrate at certaintonnages.
Tonnage Distributionof Depositsby ContainedMetal
classvaluesshownin Figures6-10 representlower ton- Although it is clear from the previousdiscussionthat
nagelimitsfor the classes
exceptfor the lowestclasswhich tonnageof mineralizedrock playsa dominantrole in de-
alsoincludesanylowervaluesandthe highestclasswhich termining metal content, metal grades cannot be ne-
is unbounded.For eachtonnageclass,the numberof de- glected in the determinationof what is an important de-
posits was counted and the associatedamount of metal posit.Ratherthan trying to considertonnagesand grades

lOO
,..••,,.._,,.•._
'.-,.

I.I.IIl.l,,m_
. • .......................
95

9o

75
____ •,• 86%
OF
GOLD
"•••kOUNT
OF
GOL
O
NUMBER OF DE

O 4o

u.I 15
10 --- 10% OF DEPOSITS • ----

0
.0001
.......................................
.001 .01
J........
.1
' .....................
I 10 100 1,000 10,OOO 100,000

GOLD CONTENT (TONS) / DEPOSIT

FIG. 11. Contained goldcontentdistributionof gold-bearing

deposits.
Lowercurveshowspercentage of the
2,117deposits greaterthaneachsize;uppercurveshows percentageoftotalgoldin deposits
greaterthaneachsize.
Asanexample,deposits containing
slightlyover100 metrictonsof goldor more,whichrepresentonly10 percent
of the deposits,
contain86 percentof totalgold.
 QUANTITATIVE
ANALYSIS
OFWORLDCLASS
DEPOSITS 101

x
Z 7S
"t' 70 ......
n' 6S
• 60 ..........

HUMBER
OFDEPOSITS
O 40

n'
12. 10

.001 .01 .1 I 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

SILVER CONTENT (TONS) I DEPOSIT

FIG. 12. Containedsilvercontentdistributionof silver-bearingdeposits.Lower curveshowspercentageof 1,405

depositsgreaterthaneachsize;uppercurveshowspercentageof total silverin depositsgreaterthaneachsize.

simultaneously, the distributionof depositsby contained
metalis usedin this sectionto examinethe importanceof
differentdeposits.
For this analysisindividual depositsare ordered from
largest to smallestby the amount of containedmetal.
Thesevaluesare plotted againstcumulativepercentageof
total metal, that is, the percentageof metal in deposits
greater than or equal to each depositsize (Figs. 11-15).
The lower curve in each of thesefiguresshowsthe per-
centageof depositsgreaterthaneachsize.Asanexample,
depositscontaining100 t of gold or more, which repre-
sentonly 10 percent of deposits,contain86 percent of all
gold discovered(Fig. 11).
There is much confusionin determiningwhether a de-
positis world classor a giant.There hasbeenno standard.
Laznicka's(1983) suggestedratio of containedmetal to
crustalabundanceis one possiblestandard.It offersthe
advantageof allowingcomparisonof multiple metals,but
the meaningof the comparisonis not clear. As pointed
out by Hodgsonet al. (1993), credible estimatesof crustal
abundanceproduce significantlydifferent minimumsof
60 to 200 t of gold to classifygiant gold deposits.Here I

lOO

95

9o

80

75

7o
65
[ -- '•• 84
%OF
COPPER
6o

so .......
NUM OF D

4.0......
35

30

20

lO
..... 10%
OF
DEPOSITS
•
5

.....................................................
0.04 .1 I 10
] ........
19o 1,9o0 10,9o0 19o,000 1,000,9o0 10,000,000 100,000,09o

COPPERCONTENT(TONS)I DEPOSIT

FIG. 13. Containedcopper contentdistributionof copper-bearingdeposits.Lower curve showspercentageof

1,342 depositsgreater than each size;upper curve showspercentageof total copperin depositsgreater than each
size.
 SINGER

lOO

•5

• 85

'• 75

• 71-/.
OF
ZINC-,,
I• -•5
NUMBER
_

OF
DEPOSITS
I
• •o ....
I

I
I1•
•,.
15
lO
• I
5

o ................................................ •. • i•:':::.......
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000

ZINC CONTENT (TONS) I DEPOSIT

FIG. 14. Containedzinc content distributionof zinc-bearingdeposits.Lower curve showspercentageof 919

depositsgreaterthaneachsize;uppercurveshowspercentageof total zincin depositsgreaterthaneachsize.

proposethat the metal contentof the largest10 percent
of deposits,ordered by metal content, be the cutoff for
classifyinga depositasworld classor giant.Althoughthe
10 percent value is arbitrary, it can be consistentlyap-
plied, it isrobustin that the cutoffsare not likely to change
quickly, it would representa relatively smallnumber of
deposits,and in the caseof the baseand preciousmetals
consideredhere, it accountsfor over 70 percent of all
metal (Table 9).
Thus,world classor giantgolddepositscontainat least
100 t (3.2 Moz) of gold,world classsilverdepositscontain
over 2,400 t (77 Moz) of silver, and world classcopper,
zinc, andlead depositscontainat least2, 1.7, and 1 Mt of
their respectivemetals(Table 9).
lO0
Depositscontainingover 1,200 t (39 Moz) of gold ac-
countfor over 57 percentof total gold,yet representonly
the largestonepercentof the deposits;the term "supergi-
ant" seemsappropriatefor thesedeposits(Table 9). The
term supergiantis therefore consideredasa subsetof the
giant or world classdeposits.Supergiantsilver deposits
containover 22,000 t (710 Moz) of silver and represent
37 percent of all silver discovered.Supergiantcopper,.
zinc, andlead depositsaccountfor at least25 percentof
each metal.
For eachof thesemetals,over 98 percent of all metal is
containedin the largest50 percent of the deposits(Table
9). Depositshaving over 6 t (190,000 oz) of gold repre-
sent 99 percent of all gold discovered.Even if there is

so

70

60

•o
•o

•o

o
10 100 1,000 10,000
I0%
OF
O•
100,000 1,00( ,000 10,000,000
........
100,000,000

LEAD CONTENT (TONS) I DEPOSIT

FIG. 15. Containedlead content distributionof lead-bearingdeposits.Lower curve showspercentageof 694

depositsgreaterthaneachsize;uppercurveshowspercentageof totalled in depositsgreaterthaneachsize.
 QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF WORLD CLASSDEPOSITS 103

TAI3LE9. SizeasContainedMetal andPercentageof Total Metal in the Largest50, 10, and 1 Percentof Gold, Silver,Copper,Zinc,
andLead Deposits(depositsizemeasuredin containedmetalper deposit)

Gold Silver Copper Zinc Lead

Median(largest50% of deposits) Metric tons 6 100 0.06 X 106 0.11 X 106 0.07 X 106
Percent total metal 99 99 99 98 98
Giant (largest10% deposits) Metric tons 100 2,400 2 X 106 1.7 X 106 1 X 106
(worldclassdeposits) Percent total metal 86 79 84 71 73
Supergiant(largest1% deposits) Metric tons 1,200 22,000 24 X 106 12 X 106 7 X 106
Percent total metal 57 37 34 25 30

underreportingof the smalldeposits,theseresultswould of containedmetal. When ordered by containedmetal,

not significantlychange.For example,if there were ten the upper 10 percentof deposits(giants)accountfor over
timesasmanygolddepositscontaininglessthan 6 t, they 70 percent of the total metal and the upper i percent of
would only accountfor 7 percent of all gold. The other deposits(supergiants) accountfor over 25 percentof total
metalshavea similarpattern.Theseresultsclearlyshow metal.Reflectingthe highcorrelationbetweentonnageof
that the smallerhalf of depositsprobablycannot,even mineralizedrock and containedmetal, tonnageof miner-
whenaddedtogether,havea significanteffecton the sup- alized rock exhibitsa similarhigh proportionof metal in
ply of thesemetals. the larger deposits.
Smalldepositscanbe definedasthosecontainingless Thesegiantsand supergiantsare the depositsthat can
than the median amount of metal shown in Table 9. These have a profound effect on supply. They also have the
depositscontainat mosttwo percentof eachof the base strongestinfluenceon producers'net presentvalue and
andpreciousmetalsdiscussed here. By default,deposits total cashflow (Mackenzieand Doggett, 1993). Because
containingmorethan the medianamountof metal andless of theseeffects,thesedepositsare importantsourcesof
than the giant depositscouldbe called intermediatede- tax revenuesto governmentsandtheir productionshould
posits.Theserepresent40 percentof the depositsandbe- tend to restrainmetal prices.The large size of thesede-
tween 13 (gold)and 27 (zinc)percentof all metal. positsmakesthem amenableto economiesof scale.Other
thingsbeing equal, thesedepositstend to require fewer
Conclusions
employeesper unitof metalproduced,but aremorelikely
Considerablymore gold,silver,copper,zinc, andlead to be mined,andthuscreatejobs,thanthe smalldeposits.
are accountedfor in this summaryof discoveredmineral The effect of higher grade depositsis moststronglyre-
depositsthan in earlier reports.Thesemetalsare widely flected in higher rates of return for the producers.As a
distributedby countryandtypeof deposit;frequencydis- consequence, higher gradedepositsdo play a role asjob
tributionsof grades,tonnages,and containedmetal dis- creators and tax revenue sources.
playa widerange.However,thesebaseandpreciousmet- It is clear that true deposits,as opposedto mineral oc-
alsshowa strongtendencyto concentratespatiallyand currences,are quite uncommon.This analysisshowsthat
geologically;
justfourcountriesandfourdeposittypesac- only the unusuallylarge and rarest of these uncommon
countfor 45 to 88 percentof the total amountof each depositscan significantlyaffectsupply.Althoughthe nu-
metal.Silverdisplays mericalsummariespresentedhere will be superseded
the greatestspatialandgeologicdi- by
versity. additionaldiscoveries,the generalpatternsof very few
Plotsof containedmetal(includingpastproduction)by countriesand giant and supergiantdepositsaccounting
gradeclassesfromknowndepositsdemonstratethat metal for mostmetalalongwith the dominatingaffectof tonnage
contenttendsto be concentratedin the higher grade will probablyremainunchanged.
classes and that the amount of metal contained in the low-
Acknowledgments
estgradeclasses is small.Over 74 percentof gold,silver,
zinc, andlead metalis in depositshavingaveragegrades Invaluableinformationfrompersonalfileswasprovided
abovethe respectivemedianaveragegradesof all depos- by Roger Ashley, Barney Berger, Vladimir Berger, and
its;44 percentof copperisin depositswith averagegrades JoeBriskey.The commentsof JohnH. DeYoung,Jr., and
abovethe medianaveragegradeof all deposits.The belief two EconomicGeologyreviewerssignificantlyimproved
that lower grade depositscontainmore total metal than the manuscript.
highergradedepositsmustbe considered speculation and February28, June7, 1994
may reflect confusion about the difference between
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