WATER CRISIS IN PAKISTAN:

Eastern Rivers are in India

• Ravi (initially was near Lahore but India re-directed its
route by consent of Pakistan for which it had to pay a
price)
• Sutlaj
• Biyas
Western Rivers are in Pakistan
• Jhelum which belongs to Pakistan
• Chenab which belongs to Pakistan
• Indus which is shared between India and Pakistan. 90%
Pakistan and 10% India. India can consume the water of
Indus River but not use it.
Pakistan is highly dependent on the Western Rivers because:
• 70% of agriculture of Punjab and Singh is dependent on it.
Agriculture contributes to 19% of the GDP and 60% of jobs
in rural area.
• Hydel Generation e.g.
➢ Tarbella on Indus
➢ Mangla on Jhelum
➢ Other projects on Jhelum
• Significant amount of domestic and industrial dependence
which is almost 20%.
India can use to Western Rivers for Hydel generation and can
build dams only when:
1. The downstream of water utilization is less in Pakistan.
2. Before initiating such program India must send design to
Pakistan and Pakistan can raise questions on it regarding:
• Structure. More the structure more will be the height
and more will be the storage.
• Overall size of project. Greater the size greater will be
the storage.
• Location of project. There are ideal locations which
increase storage capacities e.g. Kalabagh and Diamer.
It will ultimately result in decrease of water.
3. India cannot divert flow of River through:
• Canals
• Barrages
4. India is bound to facilitate Pakistan inspection team after
every 6 months.
Now the main problem is:
Over whelming decline in the flow of Western Rivers in past 3
decades e.g. Jhelum River has had more than 50% cut in its flow
since 1991-92, Chenab has had more than 60% cut in its flow,
Indus Basin more than 55%. Reason for this is:
• According to Indian argument: There is less rain falls
due to global warming and climate change.
• According to Pakistan argument: Pakistan is
countering opinion of India due to world bank report
which state that rainfall is not the major cause of this
decrease as 67% of water is contributed due to
melting of glaciers and its speed is not decreased.
Secondly the annual volume or rainfall has not
declined and instead only the phenomenon has been
disturbed i.e. rains occurring in Jan and Feb now occur
in March, monsoon is disturbed, there are prolonged
draughts and extensive rainfalls but nonetheless the
draughts are less. Pakistan claims it has occurred due
to:
➢ More and more water reservoirs and dams built
by India. E.g. Dul Hasti hydroelectric plant,
Kishanganga hydroelectric plant etc. India is
making these dams without structural defects to
avoid suspicions. More the dams less will be the
water to Pakistan.
➢ Water divergence through canals and barrages.
E.g. Wullar Barrage on Wuller River.
➢ In 2013 the international court of arbitration
appointed an arbitrator to oversee the tension
caused between India and Pakistan over the
issue Kashan Ganga. It was presented that:
▪ The height of this dam was 33 feet which
was more than initially told.
 ▪ Location is such that it gives India more
storage capacity resulting in decline of
down streaming.
▪ Size is bigger than initially told.
How to stop India:
1. Permanent and long term solution. Pakistan should build
more reservoirs and the sooner the better. In Asia Pakistan
tops the list of countries who waste water the most. This is
one of the weak point of Pakistan which is being constantly
exploited by India as they claim we don’t need water as we
are wasting it. Once Diamer and Basha are built 60% of
Indian violations will stop and India will not be able to start
any new projects. An e.g. of this is the projects on Jhelum
and Neelum which are now completed and India can’t
violate it. Kohala and Karot projects that are being built by
Pakistan for 2.4 billion $ which shall make 1100 MW
electricity and is expected to be completed by 2024 should
be made quickly. The reason being that once made it can’t
be reversed according to rules of International relations
and Geneva Convention of water.
2. Pakistan must fight its case conventionally which we
haven’t done till now. Indus water treaty is good as most
countries don’t have water treaties but it does not give
answer to every kind of violation done by India e.g. it does
allow Pakistan to question India on their projects but does
not allow India to stop making more dams. In addition we
 should approach the Geneva Convention of water. The
successful agreements between India and Pakistan over
the upper right and lower right barron should be carefully
analyzed and studied.
3. Right man for the right job e.g. in 2017 a dialogue was held
between Pakistan and India over the water conflict, with
the world bank as the arbitrary, where India prevailed not
because they were right but because they were well
prepared. Their team consisted of experts and technocrats
whereas Pakistan’s team consisted of Beaurucrats and
politicians.
4. Pakistan has the right to inspect new projects after every 6
months by India after every 6 months but till 2008 no
efforts were made by Pakistan as it has been lazy and
sluggish. Even if efforts were made India has been offering
delaying tactics. Hence Pakistan should pay more
attention.
Conclusion: Pakistan India conflict is a major issue and needs to
resolve quickly. It may result in war as Pakistan is heavily
dependent on water and if not a nuclear war may break out
resulting in heavy losses.
Afghanistan-Pakistan Water Conflict:
Major Rivers are:
1. Kabul River. It is the biggest. Agriculture portion of KPK is
highly dependent on it along with district Khyber.
 2. Khurram River. Lakki Marwat and Bannu are dependent on
it.
3. Gomal River. South Waziristan and Tank are dependent on
it.
4. Tochi River
Pakistan is dependent on these rivers for not only agriculture
but also domestic uses. The violations so far by Afghanistan
have been:
1. Construction of dams:
• Salma Dam which is almost complete
• Shatut Dam
These are the 2 major dams being constructed. Pakistan is
heading toward a conflict in coming days.
2. Major investors of these dams is India especially Salma
dam. India has not only waged water war on the eastern
border but also on the western border.
3. Pakistan does not have good relations with Afghanistan
because of:
➢ Afghanistan undue tilt toward India
➢ Border Issues
➢ Kabul blames Pakistan for harboring talks between
Taliban to attack Afghanistan especially in Tribal
areas.
What to do?
 1. A water agreement should be made which is better than
the Indus water treaty.
2. Water reservoirs like Khurram, Tangi dam should be
completed quickly so as to increase Pakistan’s water need
which will stop Afghanistan in its track.
3. Pakistan must improve relations with Afghanistan by
playing leading role in afghan peace process stopping its
undue tilt towards India.
Why we need dams?
1. To increase the water life of Pakistan. Water life is made
through dams and rivers. Its contributors are glaciers and
rainfall. World Bank has made an indicator of 100 days. If
a country has a water life of 100 days or more it is
considered safe and if less it is considered dangerous.
Pakistan has a water life of 33 days whereas India has 120
despite claiming 200, Egypt has 1000 days, US 900. Best
method to increase water life is by building dams. By
building Diamer the water life will increase by 18 days,
Kalabagh will increase the water life by 25 day. We should
also store rainfall water by making small dams.
2. To increase agricultural production we need dams.
Pakistan is an agricultural economy with agriculture
contributing 19% towards its GDP. It consists of crops and
live stocks. Pakistan is the largest produced in milk.
However agriculture is in decline because of:
➢ Floods
 ➢ Urbanization
➢ Canal system which are in decline
However there are opportunities:
➢ Alone Kalabagh will irrigate South Punjab, South Sindh and
Anterior Sindh.
➢ Diamer-Basha will irrigate 1.2 million acre land.
Irrespective of the size irrigation will increase.
3. To increase hydel generation of the country. Hydel
generation is:
➢ Cheaper
➢ Environmentally safe
➢ More magnitude
60% of the energy generated by Pakistan is through oil, gas and
coal. Wapda, Independent power producers (IPP) and rental
power producers (RPP) are the main suppliers of electricity with
wapda producing it through a mixture of oil and gas whereas
the other 2 through 1 of the other. This is expensive and has
trickledown effect on economy. They result in the increase of
prices on goods (agricultural and industrial). Hence cheaper
electricity has to be generated which will help economy
through:
➢ Coal
➢ Solar
➢ Hydro projects
No matter how expensive hydel projects it won’t increase more
than 2 rs/unit. Automatically industrial and agricultural
products will be cheaper resulting in improvement of economy.
Our product can’t compete the main reason being electricity. If
4500 MW electricity is being produced through hydel
generation it will result in decrease of 2 billion $ which is being
used in oil import. Kohala, Karot, Dasu, Diamer when combined
will generate 15K mw electricity which will result in decrease of
7 billion $ being spent on import of oil which will eventually
decrease trade deficit.
4. To stop India and Afghanistan from violations we need
dams.
5. To decrease intensity of floods. We face floods almost
every year. 2010 was the worst year with respect to floods.
They badly affect:
➢ Roads
➢ Railways
➢ Crops
➢ Live stock
➢ Electricity
➢ Public sectors
➢ General public life
According to a report published the 2010 floods badly affected
the agriculture and public sectors. This is caused due to increase
rainfall and increase in melting of glaciers. Once Mohmand dam
is built floods will not come in KPK. Diamer Basha will decrease
floods by 60%. Kalabagh if made will stop floods in Indus Basin.
6. In urban centers and rural areas increase water supply. Per
day water need in Karachi is 11 million gallon for domestic
use alone and available is 7 million gallon. In deserts like
Thar there is water issue. In 2018 Singh agriculture got
40% less water than required. Karachi is dependent on Hub
dam and Kichar lakes.
7. Improve underground water tables. In south Asia Pakistan
has the least because its dependency is more on it both in
agriculture and domestic life. There are tube wells,
boaring, water companies etc. Hence there is massive
consumption and water table is going down especially in
Baluchistan, Thar, Cholistan, Islamabad etc. Equifiers can
also be used to increase it.
8. To stop the wastage of water. In Aia Pakistan wastes
water the most. In 2010 we wasted 36 million acre field of
water and annually 20 million acre field of water into the
sea. Reason being:
➢ 80% + water influx is in 4 moths i.e. may-august due
to melting of glaciers and rainfall. Rest 20% is in the
rest of the year. Usage in these 4 months is bare
minimum and storage is even more minimum. Other
than dams in Sindh a canal should be made called
Sindh canal, which is now approved, in which 167 km
of water will be dumped.
➢ Water wastage in domestic sectors. This should be
avoided.
➢ Water wastage by agriculture sector due to:
• Declining canal systems. There are 3 canal
systems i.e. primary which are all concrete,
secondary which are partially concrete and
tertiary which is not concrete at all. There is
more breakage in secondary and tertiary canals.
There is water wastage and seepage along with
mud feeling.
• Flood irrigation technique in which water is left
open until it has reached its destination. It can be
solved by sprinkler system.
• Production of crops which cost more water e.g.
sugar cane and rice. Sugar cane production
should be reduced and not more than required.
In addition farmers should cultivate hybrid rice
which requires less water compared to the other
rice.
• Water is distributed according to volume due to
which landlords get most of the water whereas
farmers with tertiary canal system receive less
water due to which the farmer is exploited. This
results in the wasting of water by the farmer
because of the fear that water may not be there
when required. It can be fixed by:
✓ Increasing water price
 ✓ Giving water according to time and not
volume
✓ Good governing body
Hurdles in construction of dams:
1. Poor economic standing of the country. Every year budget
deficit is more than 1 billion. In 17-18 it was more than
1500 billion, 18-19 1700 billion and next year it is expected
to be 2 trillion. Hence you have to take loan due to which
the money collected is spent in repaying back those loans.
If not all at least 50% of it. 12 billion + is the cost of diamer,
3 billion + of Mohmand dam etc. Economy cannot afford it.
However no doubt the economic condition is persistently
weak but such projects are financed through sponsorship
and not budget. There are 3 types of sponsorships:
• Loan e.g. Dasu
• Build operate transfer model (B.O.D model) e.g.
Kohala, Karot, Sukki Karala etc.
• Foreign direct investment
2. Lack of interest of investors in GB & AJK projects. Neither
World Bank not Dubai Islamic banking is interested
because India is opposing it as Kashmir is a disputed
territory nor India claims AJK & GB as its parts. But that
does not mean no foreign investor is ready to invest. China
may be interested e.g. in Kohala it invested 2.4 million,
Dasu in which China is in partnership with FWO. Other
than this highest number of projects that can be
 constructed are in KP and World Bank and Asia Islamic
banking has never said no to them. Only terms need to be
reached. Also Baluchistan.
3. Lack of will on the part of the state to build reservoirs
whether dictator or elected. In India 120+ dams are built,
China 3K+ dams in previous 30 years, Pakistan 0. From
2015 onwards it has become a priority hence are being
made now. From 2004-2010 Diamer Basha was
inaugurated 4 times but construction was not started. It
took 5 years alone for land reacquisition where it should
have taken only 1 year.
4. Interprovincial disputes. According to IRSA agreement the
water distribution amongst Sindh and Punjab is such that
from Chenab and Jhelum 90% of the water will be sent to
Punjab and 10% to Sindh. Whereas in the case of Indus
90% to Sindh and 10% to Punjab excluding KPK share.
Sindh claims that Punjab has not been releasing its due
share from Jhelum and Chenab. Punjab on the other hand
says that their water need is more and Indus supplies more
to Sindh. Also Punjab’s water life is more dependent on
Indus. On the other hand KPK says that 65% of the dam
areas are in KP and yet they still have electricity shortage
and only the negative implications of the dams are there.
Also there is a dispute on the Kalabagh dam which it’s
feared that if built Nowshehra will drown. Hence
construction of Kalabagh is under threat. However
Kalabagh should be left alone for some time and others
which are undisputed should be built first. There are 400
alone in Kpk which are undisputed. Kalabagh should be
built but with consensus.