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Tetsuro Maeda, MD*,a Reiichiro Obata, MD*,a Dahlia Rizk DO, MPH,a Toshiki Kuno,
Accepted Article
MD, PhDa
a
Department of Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, Mount Sinai Beth
E-mail: Toshiki.Kuno@mountsinai.org
Abstract
IL-6 inhibitors such as tocilizumab are expected to be effective for its treatment.
This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not
been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which
may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this
article as doi: 10.1002/jmv.26365.
hospitalized with COVID-19 in March 2020. Patients were divided into those admitted to
the intensive care unit (ICU group) and those not (no ICU group), and clinical data
Accepted Article
including usage of tocilizumab were compared. Correlation between IL-6 value and
Results: The ICU group had higher rates of preexisting comorbidities such as
hypertension, diabetes and coronary disease, and higher IL-6 than no ICU group (all
P<0.05). Age, peak IL-6, and peak d-dimer were significant predictors of in-hospital
hospital mortality with IL-6 at peak than others (area under curve; IL-6 at peak: 0.875
significantly higher in patients who were given tocilizumab than those who were not
(13.0% vs 1.1%, P<0.001). Notably, tocilizumab did not affect in-hospital mortality after
Conclusions: Age, peak IL-6, and peak d-dimer levels were significant predictors of in-
hospital mortality. Tocilizumab did not decrease in-hospital mortality in our cohort.
Keywords: COVID-19, New York, intensive care unit, invasive mechanical ventilation,
interleukin-6, tocilizumab
Introduction
March 11, 2020 (2). The United States has the largest number of COVID-19 cases in the
world, with more than 1 million confirmed as of May 2, 2020, New York City being its
Accepted Article
epicenter. The total number of deaths has risen exponentially to 15,580, with 211,670
patients suffering from COVID-19 as of June 19, 2020 in New York City.
syndrome, and death (3, 4). Since cytokine release syndrome with elevation of
inhibitors such as tocilizumab are expected to be effective for its treatment (5, 6). Despite
lack of proven clinical benefit, tocilizumab was used for selected patients with COVID-
19 at our institution usually early in the hospital course, with rationale that it may prevent
progression of disease.
including detailed baseline patient characteristics, clinical manifestations, and factors that
led to a need to escalate to intensive care units (ICUs). The ultimate goal was to
investigate potential correlation between IL-6 value and the impact of administration of
City.
Methods
This was a single-center retrospective cohort study. We obtained medical records for
institutional review boards (#20-00436) and conducted in accordance with the principles
initially performed in Department of Health in New York City and LabCorp, and
transitioned into Mount Sinai Hospital’s internal laboratory thereafter. Patients who
presented to the hospital with respiratory symptoms or a viral prodrome were tested for
COVID-19 and evaluated for admission. Since very little was known about the disease,
decision to admit was largely provider-dependent, and not based on any specific
predetermined criteria.
Since the first hospitalized patient with COVID-19 was identified on March 13,
2020, a total of 224 consecutive patients with COVID-19 were hospitalized by March 31,
2020 and were included in our study. Mainly two authors (R.O. and T.M.) conducted a
comorbidities, test results, in-hospital treatment and outcomes through May 2, 2020. The
collected data included the following: whether patients met criteria for systemic
inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS); whether patients met criteria for type 1 or type
2 myocardial infarction (7); quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score
(8); d-dimer and IL-6 values at admission and at peak; use of medications including
the clinical course such as activation of rapid response team (RRT), length of hospital
intravenous dexamethasone 20mg daily for 5 days followed by 10mg for 5 days.
Patients were divided into two groups: those who were admitted to the ICU
during the hospital course (ICU group, 25.4% [N=57]) and those who were not (no ICU
continuous variables were evaluated using Student’s t-test or Mann-Whitney U test; the χ2
or Fisher’s exact t-test was used for analyzing categorical variables. A multivariate
logistic regression model was constructed for predicting the incidence of invasive
mechanical ventilation and in-hospital mortality excluding patients who remained in the
ventilation (N=34) and death (N=40), three variables were chosen based on prior data.
The following covariates were entered for multivariate logistic regression analyses; age,
d-dimer, and IL-6. Age and d-dimer were recently reported as independent predictors for
mortality of COVID-19 patients (10). IL-6 was also considered a reflection of cytokine
release syndrome of COVID-19 (5). 149 patients (66.5%) had both d-dimer and IL-6
values reported. We entered age, d-dimer levels (at admission), and IL-6 levels (at
admission) for invasive mechanical ventilation and in-hospital mortality, or age, d-dimer
(at peak), IL-6 levels (at peak) for in-hospital mortality. Receiver operating characteristic
well as IL-6 (at admission and at peak) was also created. Additionally, we also analyzed
effect of tocilizumab, an IL-6 inhibitor which was used in our hospital during the study
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period, using inverse probability weighted analysis. To estimate a propensity score for the
use of tocilizumab, the following covariates were entered: age, d-dimer and IL-6 at
for adjustment. All statistical calculations and analyses were performed using SPSS
(version 24, SPSS, Chicago, IL, USA), with p-values <0.05 considered statistically
significant.
Results
Among 224 patients, the mean age was 63±17 and 56.7% were male. 35.9% were
Caucasian, 19.5% were African American and notably, 44.7% were Hispanic. Regarding
other demographics of interest, 4.5% were undomiciled, and 93.7% had health insurance
Table 1 shows detailed baseline characteristics. The ICU group had significantly
lower oxygen saturation level (94% [88, 96] versus 96% [94, 98], P<0.001), higher SIRS
and qSOFA criteria met, and were more likely to have hypertension, diabetes mellitus and
The ICU group had a significantly higher white blood cell count, neutrophil count,
glucose levels, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, lactate dehydrogenase, and d-dimer
compared to the no ICU group (all P<0.05). The ICU group also had significantly higher
frequently showed ST elevation in the ICU group compared to the no ICU group (5.3%
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versus 0.0%, P=0.003). Chest X-ray significantly more frequently showed multifocal
pneumonia in the ICU group compared to the no ICU group (73.2% versus 51.9%,
P=0.005). Interestingly, there was a very low rate of lobular consolidation observed
Table 3 shows in-hospital treatment and outcomes. 57.9% of the ICU group was
initially admitted to the ICU and the rest of those patients were transferred from a general
medicine floor. RRT was activated for 5.8% of the total study cohort. Regarding
94.2%), and 62.1% of patients received azithromycin with higher proportions in the ICU
group. In addition, corticosteroids were given to more than half of the ICU group.
Tocilizumab was given to more than a quarter of the ICU group and 10.3% of the total
cohort. Notably, 59.6% of patients in the ICU group required mechanical ventilation
(15.2% of the total cohort). CPR was performed in 5.4% of the total cohort with a
shockable rhythm (1 out of 12 CPR, 8.3%), and death rate for that group was 100% (age:
70 [60, 76]). In the ICU group, 55.4% of patients died, which was 18.2% of the total
With a multivariate logistic regression model, age (odds ratio (OR) [95%
confidential interval (CI)]: 1.04 [1.00-1.70], P=0.05) and IL-6 (at admission) (OR
[95%CI]: 1.006 [1.003-1.009], P<0.001) were significant predictors of the use of invasive
mechanical ventilation, but d-dimer (at peak) was not (OR [95% CI]: 1.00 [0.87-1.15]).
[95%CI]: 1.05 [1.01-1.09], P=0.007, 1.002 [1.000-1.003], P=0.018), but d-dimer (at
admission) was not (OR [95% CI]: 1.07 [0.95-1.19], P=0.28). In contrast, age, IL-6 (at
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peak) and d-dimer (at peak) were significant predictors of in-hospital death (1.05 [1.01-
IL-6 at peak than others (area under curve; IL-6 at peak: 0.875 [0.87-0.942], IL-6 at
Patients who were given tocilizumab (N=23) versus those who were not (N=201)
were also compared. Those who were given tocilizumab, compared to those who were
not, had higher proportion of ICU level of care (70.0% versus 20.3%, P<0.001) and
invasive mechanical ventilation (45.4% versus 11.9%, P<0.001), and had relatively
higher in-hospital mortality rates (33.3% versus 16.6%, P=0.058). Interestingly, incidence
of fungal infections was significantly higher in patients who were given tocilizumab
compared to those who were not (13.0% vs 1.1%, P<0.001). Also of interest, tocilizumab
did not affect in-hospital mortality after adjustment including IL-6 (OR [95% CI]: 1.00
[0.27-3.72, P=0.998]).
Discussion
The salient findings of this cohort study are the following: 1) Patients who were admitted
to the ICU had 55.4% of mortality rate, and the death rate of those who had CPR was
100%; 2) Age, IL-6 at peak, and d-dimer at peak were significant predictors of in-hospital
death; 3) IL-6 at peak and d-dimer at peak were better predictors than IL-6 at admission
significantly higher in patients who were given tocilizumab than who were not; and 5)
tocilizumab did not show a decreased risk of in-hospital mortality after inverse
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probability weighted analysis.
New York City is the epicenter of COVID-19 crisis in the US (11). Mount Sinai
Beth Israel hospital has served the community of Lower Manhattan through numerous
crises such as 9/11 and the blackout, as well as hurricanes Irene and Sandy (12, 13), and
now is serving our community during this rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic. While
case rates have come down significantly in NYC in June, our hospital at its peak quickly
evolved to a nearly 90% COVID positive patient census in just a few short weeks, and
expanded its volume and ICU capacity during this time to meet the needs of our
New York City. Notably, we included variables such as homelessness, insurance status
(which may be a surrogate for access to healthcare), and race/ethnicity. Patients who
needed ICU admission in our study were likely to have similar comorbidities to those
described in prior studies (14). Our data showed that those who were admitted to the ICU
had higher metrics for SIRS, qSOFA score, lactate dehydrogenase, d-dimer, as well as
higher inflammatory markers such as C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, ferritin and IL-6.
short supply citywide due to rapid expansion of usage (9). Some of those who were
hydroxychloroquine due to prolonged QTc (15, 16). Despite this, our study showed high
We demonstrated that age and IL-6 levels were independent predictors of invasive
mechanical ventilation and death due to COVID-19. These variables may be useful to
Accepted Article
identify patients who are more likely to benefit from frequent monitoring since
respiratory failure from COVID-19 was found to have the potential to progress very
rapidly (18). Visitor restriction was applied during the pandemic per state and local
mandates to avoid spread of disease, which may have contributed to delayed recognition
of progression of patients’ condition as often families can help detect variability from
their baseline (19). Since medical resources may be strained during a crisis, this
understand who should be monitored in more acute settings with potentially higher
data showed that age and d-dimer were predictors of in-hospital mortality (10). However,
the study did not include IL-6 as a covariate. ROC curve also showed higher
predictability of IL-6 at peak and d-dimer at peak than IL-6 at admission or d-dimer at
admission for in-hospital mortality. A recent study noted that patients with COVID-19
who received tocilizumab had a higher IL-6 value 12-48 hours after tocilizumab
administration than those who survived (20). Serial measurements of IL-6 and d-dimer
might be necessary to predict in-hospital death. Although the peak values would not be
immediately be known on admission, identifying patients who are more likely to have
poor outcomes would still be helpful to make reasonable clinical decisions. These values
advanced disease. In addition, our data suggest that checking IL-6 value until it is peaked
reduce mortality especially if given earlier in the clinical course (21, 22), and have shown
that IL-6 can be elevated following administration of tocilizumab (23). Tocilizumab was
used in selected cases in our cohort, especially among the ICU group (24). Our study
demonstrated that a high IL-6 level is associated with death. However, our study revealed
that tocilizumab did not reduce the risk of in-hospital mortality with inverse probability
weighted analysis including adjustment of IL-6 with the incremental finding of fungal
infections.
There are several limitations in our study. First, this study was conducted in a
single hospital with relatively small sample size. Although we did attempt rigorous
were given to the majority of the ICU group, and its relationship to tocilizumab remains
unclear. Although corticosteroids were often discontinued if the patient was subsequently
infectious complications than tocilizumab alone would have. It also remains unclear how
fungal infections were treated in patients who received tocilizumab and how antifungal
treatment would have influenced mortality. Data regarding the timing of tocilizumab
administration (whether it was given in the ICU or in the general medicine floor) were
not available or consistent given its lack of treatment guidelines, and therefore could not
especially ICU versus no ICU admission in the diverse multicultural urban city of New
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York. Age and IL-6 at peak, d-dimer at peak were significant predictors of in-hospital
death. Incidence of fungal infections was significantly higher in patients who were given
tocilizumab during hospital course than those who were not. Tocilizumab did not
Figure Legends
Figure 1: Receiver operating characteristics curve, IL-6 versus d-dimer to predict in-
hospital mortality
Patients or the public WERE NOT involved in the design, or conduct, or reporting, or
Funding: none
Disclosure: none
Acknowledgements: none
Author Contributions: RO, TM, DR, TK had full access to all the data in the study and
take responsibility for the integrity of the data and accuracy of the data analysis.
Study concept and design: RO, TK
Data Curation: RO, TM
Acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data: RO, TM, DR, TK
Abbreviation: ICU; intensive care unit, BMI; body mass index, SBP; systolic blood
pressure, DBP; diastolic blood pressure, MAP; mean arterial pressure, RR; respiratory
rate, SIRS; systematic inflammatory response syndrome, qSOFA; quick sepsis related
organ failure assessment, ACEI; angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor, ARB;
angiotensin Ⅱ receptor blocker, DM; diabetes mellitus, COPD; chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease, CVA; cerebrovascular accident, PVD; peripheral vascular disease,
CKD; chronic kidney disease, CAD; coronary artery disease, PCI; percutaneous coronary
intervention, CABG; coronary artery bypass grafting, PE/DVT; pulmonary
embolism/deep vein thrombosis, AF; atrial fibrillation, CHF; congestive heart failure,
HIV; human immunodeficiency virus
group
Abbreviation: ECG; electrocardiogram, ICU; intensive care unit, BUN; blood urea
nitrogen, AST; aspartate aminotransferase, ALT; alanine aminotransferase, LDH; lactate
dehydrogenase, CPK; creatine kinase, PT-INR; prothrombin time-international
normalized ratio, APTT; activated partial thromboplastin time, CRP; C-reactive protein,
hsCRP; high sensitivity C-reactive protein, IL-6; interleukin-6, AF; atrial fibrillation,
CRBBB; complete right bundle branch block, CLBBB; complete left bundle branch
block, PAC; premature atrial contraction, PVC; premature ventricular contraction
Table 3: In-hospital treatment and outcomes; ICU group versus no ICU group
Abbreviation: ICU; intensive care unit, RRT; rapid response team, NPPV; noninvasive
positive pressure ventilator, IMV; invasive mechanical ventilator, VT; ventricular
tachycardia, NSTEMI; non-ST elevation myocardial infarction, STEMI; ST elevation
myocardial infarction, VF; ventricular fibrillation, VT; ventricular tachycardia, CPR;
cardiopulmonary resuscitation