Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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2/29/20
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Low
4/18/20
4/25/20
5/2/20
Date
Medium
5/9/20
5/16/20
Hospitalized Cases
5/23/20
High
5/30/20
6/6/20
6/13/20
6/20/20
6/27/20
7/4/20
Predicted Hospitalizations from COVID-19 in India
7/11/20
7/18/20
7/25/20
8/1/20
Lakhs People
Lakhs People
0
100
150
200
250
300
350
1.
1. 2. 50
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2. 20
20
15
15 .2
.2 .2
.2 0
0 29
29 .2
.2 .2
.2 0
0
14 14
.3 .3
.2 .2
0 0
28 28
.3 .3
.2 .2
0 0
11 11
.4 .4
.2 .2
0 0
25
.4 25
.2 .4
0 .2
0
9.
5. 9.
20 5.
23 20
.5 23
.2
Date
0 .5
.2
Date
6. 0
6.
20 6.
6.
20 20
.6
.2 20
0 .6
Hospitalized Cases
.2
4.
7. 0
20 4.
18 7.
.7 20
.2
0
UTTAR PRADESH
18
.7
1. .2
8.
20 0
15 1.
.8 8.
.2 20
0 15
29 .8
.8 .2
.2 0
0
Total Infections (Asymptomatic + Hospitalized + Symptomatic)
29
.8
.2
0
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Lakhs People 0Lakhs People
5
1.
10
15
20
25
30
35
2.
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
1. 20
2.
20 15
15 .2
.2 .2
.2 0
0 29
29 .2
.2 .2
.2 0
0 14
.3
14 .2
.3
.2 0
0 28
.3
28 .2
.3 0
.2 11
0 .4
11 .2
.4 0
.2 25
0 .4
25 .2
.4 0
.2
0 9.
5.
9. 20
5. 23
20 .5
.2
Date
23
.5 0
.2
Date
0 6.
6.
6. 20
6. 20
20 .6
DELHI
.2
20
.6 0
.2 4.
0 7.
Hospitalized Cases
20
4. 18
7.
20 .7
.2
18 0
.7
.2 1.
0 8.
20
1. 15
8. .8
20 .2
15 0
.8 29
.2 .8
0 .2
29 0
Total Infections (Asymptomatic + Hospitalized + Symptomatic)
.8
.2
0
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
KERALA
Total Infections (Asymptomatic + Hospitalized + Symptomatic)
70
60
Lakhs People
50
40
30 Low
20
Medium
10
0
20 High
20
20
20
20
20
20
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
Date
Hospitalized Cases
0.7
0.6
Lakhs People
0.5
0.4
0.3 Low
0.2
0.1 Medium
0.0 High
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
Date
MAHARASHTRA
Total Infections (Asymptomatic + Hospitalized + Symptomatic)
250.00
200.00
Lakhs People
150.00
100.00 Low
Medium
50.00
High
0.00
0
20
20
20
20
20
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
2.
5.
6.
7.
8.
.2
.2
.3
.3
.4
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.8
1.
9.
6.
4.
1.
15
29
14
28
11
25
23
20
18
15
29
Date
Hospitalized Cases
2.50
2.00
Lakhs People
1.50
1.00 Low
0.50 Medium
0.00 High
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
Date
Lakhs People Lakhs People
2/
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1.
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2. 1/
20 20
15 2/
.2 15
.2 /2
0 0
29 2/
.2 29
.2 /2
0 0
14 3/
.3 14
.2 /2
0 0
28 3/
.3 28
.2 /2
0 0
11 4/
.4 11
.2 /2
0 0
25 4/
.4 25
.2 /2
0 0
9. 5/
5. 9/
20 20
23 5/
.5 23
.2
Date 0 /2
Date
0
6. 6/
6. 6/
20 20
20
.6 6/
.2 20
0 /2
0
Hospitalized Cases
4.
7. 7/
20 4/
TELANGANA
18 20
.7 7/
.2 18
0 /2
1. 0
8. 8/
20 1/
15 20
.8 8/
.2 15
0 /2
29 0
.8 8/
.2
Total Infections (Asymptomatic + Hospitalized + Symptomatic)
0 29
/2
0
Low
High
Low
High
Medium
Medium
TAMIL NADU
Total Infections (Asymptomatic + Hospitalized + Symptomatic)
160
140
Lakhs People
120
100
80
60 Low
40 Medium
20
0 High
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
2/
3/
4/
5/
6/
7/
8/
Date
Hospitalized Cases
1.6
1.4
Lakhs People
1.2
1
0.8
0.6 Low
0.4 Medium
0.2
0 High
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
2/
3/
4/
5/
6/
7/
8/
Date
Main Takeaways
1. Estimates are based on IndiaSIM, an agent-based model of the Indian population. This model is focused on
the period up to July.
2. Immediate social distancing focused on the elderly population is essential. We have modeled a three-week
period of complete isolation for the elderly. The longer this period, the more we are able to delay infections
into the post-July period.
3. Model is sensitive to hospital outbreaks of COVID19 induced by admission of infected patients into hospitals.
Need for large, temporary hospitals to handle this load over the next three-month period. Secondary,
hospital-based transmission fuels the epidemic.
4. Testing, particularly of those coming in with respiratory symptoms is essential to separate those in hospitals.
Need two-stage, preemptive testing in symptomatic elderly immediately to reduce deaths.
5. Immediate and continuing serological surveys needed to monitor the stage of the epidemic. We are currently
flying blind.
6. Ventilator demand will be 1 million. Current availability in India is estimated to be between 30K and 50K
ventilators (the US has 160K and is running short in most places).
7. Mortality in healthcare workers could further increase deaths in the general population. Healthcare workers
need personal protective equipment (i.e., masks and gowns) to protect themselves. Without them they get
sick further straining the capacity of the healthcare system to respond
Summary for Policy
1. Delays in testing are seriously reducing the ability of the population to protect itself. This is the most important way
in which we can contain the epidemic. An increase in the official number of detected cases in the short term could
encourage the population to take distancing more seriously and will reduce panic compared to a big spike later.
2. Border closures at this stage have little to no impact and add further economic disruption and panic. While
international transmission was important in the first stage, domestic transmission is now far more relevant.
3. A national lockdown is not productive and could cause serious economic damage, increase hunger and reduce the
population resilience for handling the infection peak. Some states may see transmission increase only after another 2
weeks and lockdowns should be optimized for when they could maximize the effect on the epidemic but minimize
economic damage. State level lockdowns in the most affected states could change the trajectory of the epidemic and
should commence immediately. Any delay allows for more secondary cases to emerge. Lockdowns should be guided
by testing and serological survey data and should be planned on a rolling basis. We will expand these
recommendations shortly.
4. Preparedness for case load should be the highest priority at this time. We will be issuing guidance based on the model
for state level needs for bed capacity, oxygen flow masks and tanks and ventilators.
5. Temperature and humidity increases should help us in reducing case load. Although the evidence is limited, it is
plausible.
6. We need to focus on both children under the age of five and the elderly. Early testing and healthcare in this population
could help significantly reduce the mortality toll of the epidemic.
7. We should be prepared for multiple peaks in the model (we have only shown what happens in July) and we should be
prepared for more cases and deaths later in the year.
Background Slides
Current Situation
• Data from China and models suggest that by the time cases are
recognized there has already been transmission ongoing for weeks
• In India initial infections likely first arrived in early February
Potentially first
case in
November
Projections for India
• Disease Parameters:
§ Incubation time: 6 days (SD 2 days)
§ Time to hospitalization: 3.5 days (SD 1.8 days)
§ Days in Hospital: 12 days (SD 3.4 days)
§ Contagious time non-hospital: 9 days (SD 3 days)
DOI: 10.7326/M20-0504
Global Trends in Confirmed Cases
Takes nearly 2
weeks to change
course of infection
Countrywide
lockdowns
begin in China
Model Assumptions
• Contact and Transmission depends on type of contact and with whom
contact is made
• Contact patterns highly variable by age (e.g. kids have higher rates of contact1).
• Household contact rates are higher than outside contacts.
• Age-related assortative contact patterns1
1. 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074
Number of International Airline Travelers by Indian State,
January 2020
Number of International Airline Travelers by Indian State, January 2020
State
Delhi 1,749,594
Maharashtra 1,266,531
Kerala 978,571
Tamil Nadu 734,655
Karnataka 491,042
Telangana 372,329
West Bengal 286,589
Gujarat 223,385
Goa 107,974
Uttar Pradesh 85,452
Punjab 83,752
Rajasthan 50,987
Bihar 23,761
Andhra Pradesh 13,779
Odisha 7,234
Chandigarh 5,069
Madhya Pradesh 3,476
Assam 2,712
0K 100K 200K 300K 400K 500K 600K 700K 800K 900K 1000K 1100K 1200K 1300K 1400K 1500K 1600K 1700K 1800K 1900K
Number of International Passengers
Temperature and humidity
Evidence from China indicates that higher temperature and humidity are
likely to lower the transmission rates but it is unclear how this will translate
to the India context.
Mortality higher in older individuals
A large percentage of cases are mild, but for older individuals the mortality rate is strikingly higher
Mortality higher in older individuals
In China mortality was much higher in the elderly…
…The US is similar.
Evidence on children
SEVERITY OF COVID-19 INFECTIONS IN
• Children are less CHILDREN
likely to be infected Asymptomatic Mild Moderate Severe/critical
and also less likely to
be hospitalized than 6%4%
adults.
• Illness is less likely to
be severe in children
39%
than in adults. 51%
10
8
6
4
2
0
Infants Age 1-5 Age 6-10 Age 11-15 Age 16+ Adult
Age Group
Population 51 M 60 M
Total testing (till March 17, 2020) 286,716 148,657
S Korea: has been conducting around 12,000-15,000 tests every day, and has the capacity to
do 20,000 daily; it has done ~ 250,000 tests till date.
Ref: 1. Population 2. Total testing 3. Business Insider
Testing protocol in South Korea
Source: WHO Interim Guidance 2nd March Laboratory testing for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in suspected human cases.
WHO Interim Guidance | COVID-19 Lab confirmation protocol
A positive NAAT result for at least two different targets Simpler algorithm might be adopted
on the COVID-19 virus genome, of which at least one in which e.g. screening by rRT-PCR
target is preferably specific for COVID-19 virus using a of a single discriminatory target is
validated assay (as at present no other SARS-like considered sufficient.
coronaviruses are circulating in the human population it
can be debated whether it has to be COVID-19 or SARS-
like coronavirus specific); One or more negative results do not
rule out the possibility of COVID-19
OR virus infection.
Source: WHO Interim Guidance 2nd March Laboratory testing for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in suspected human cases.
Surveillance networks were tapped to test COVID 19 in
China
Transmission dynamics
• Transmission within health care settings and amongst health care workers does not
appear to be a major feature of COVID-19 in China.
• Investigations among HCW suggest that many may have been infected within the
household rather than in a health care setting.