Figure 1.3.

1 Possible global growth outcomes

1.3.1.A Global growth
1.3.1.B Growth in advanced economies
1.3.1.C Growth in EMDEs
1.3.1.D Trade growth
1.3.1.E Growth in EMDE regions in 2020
1.3.1.F Growth in EMDE regions in 2021
Figure 1.3.1.A. Global growth
Percent
6
Baseline
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
2020 202
Source: World Bank.

Note: Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exc
Baseline scenario: three months of mitigation measures would be enough to stem the pand
get underway once mitigation measures are lifted but would be hesitant.
Downside scenario: Three months of stringent lockdowns would prove insufficient and anot
mitigation would be required before the pandemic can be brought under control.
Upside scenario: Mitigation measures would be lifted after three months, and all major econ
back to life in the third quarter of 2020. Monetary and fiscal stimulus would remain in place
Note: Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exc
Baseline scenario: three months of mitigation measures would be enough to stem the pand
get underway once mitigation measures are lifted but would be hesitant.
Downside scenario: Three months of stringent lockdowns would prove insufficient and anot
mitigation would be required before the pandemic can be brought under control.
Upside scenario: Mitigation measures would be lifted after three months, and all major econ
back to life in the third quarter of 2020. Monetary and fiscal stimulus would remain in place
effective in supporting growth over the next 18 months.
Return to Read Me
 Baseline
2020 2021
World -5.2 4.2

2021

prices and market exchange rates.

ough to stem the pandemic. A recovery would
nt.
e insufficient and another three months of
der control.
hs, and all major economies would sputter
would remain in place and would be highly
 Downside/Upside range
2020 2021 2020 2021
2.6 2.9 1.5 1.4
Figure 1.3.1.B. Growth in advanced economies
Percent
6
Baseline
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
2020 202
Source: World Bank.

Note: Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exc
Baseline scenario: three months of mitigation measures would be enough to stem the pand
get underway once mitigation measures are lifted but would be hesitant.
Downside scenario: Three months of stringent lockdowns would prove insufficient and anot
mitigation would be required before the pandemic can be brought under control.
Upside scenario: Mitigation measures would be lifted after three months, and all major econ
back to life in the third quarter of 2020. Monetary and fiscal stimulus would remain in place
Note: Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exc
Baseline scenario: three months of mitigation measures would be enough to stem the pand
get underway once mitigation measures are lifted but would be hesitant.
Downside scenario: Three months of stringent lockdowns would prove insufficient and anot
mitigation would be required before the pandemic can be brought under control.
Upside scenario: Mitigation measures would be lifted after three months, and all major econ
back to life in the third quarter of 2020. Monetary and fiscal stimulus would remain in place
effective in supporting growth over the next 18 months.
Return to Read Me
 Baseline
2020 2021
World -7 3.9

2021

prices and market exchange rates.

ough to stem the pandemic. A recovery would
nt.
e insufficient and another three months of
der control.
hs, and all major economies would sputter
would remain in place and would be highly
 Downside/Upside range
2020 2021 2020 2021
2.7 3.6 1.2 1.1
Figure 1.3.1.C. Growth in EMDEs
Percent
8
Baseline
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
2020 202
Source: World Bank.

Note: Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exc
Baseline scenario: three months of mitigation measures would be enough to stem the pand
get underway once mitigation measures are lifted but would be hesitant.
Downside scenario: Three months of stringent lockdowns would prove insufficient and anot
mitigation would be required before the pandemic can be brought under control.
Upside scenario: Mitigation measures would be lifted after three months, and all major econ
back to life in the third quarter of 2020. Monetary and fiscal stimulus would remain in place
Note: Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exc
Baseline scenario: three months of mitigation measures would be enough to stem the pand
get underway once mitigation measures are lifted but would be hesitant.
Downside scenario: Three months of stringent lockdowns would prove insufficient and anot
mitigation would be required before the pandemic can be brought under control.
Upside scenario: Mitigation measures would be lifted after three months, and all major econ
back to life in the third quarter of 2020. Monetary and fiscal stimulus would remain in place
effective in supporting growth over the next 18 months.
Return to Read Me
 Baseline
2020 2021
World -2.5 4.6

2021

prices and market exchange rates.

ough to stem the pandemic. A recovery would
nt.
e insufficient and another three months of
der control.
hs, and all major economies would sputter
would remain in place and would be highly
 Downside/Upside range
2020 2021 2020 2021
2.5 1.9 2 1.8
Figure 1.3.1.D. Trade growth
Percent
8
Baseline
4
0
-4
-8
-12
-16
-20
-24
2020 202
Source: World Bank.

Note: Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exc
Baseline scenario: three months of mitigation measures would be enough to stem the pand
get underway once mitigation measures are lifted but would be hesitant.
Downside scenario: Three months of stringent lockdowns would prove insufficient and anot
mitigation would be required before the pandemic can be brought under control.
Upside scenario: Mitigation measures would be lifted after three months, and all major econ
back to life in the third quarter of 2020. Monetary and fiscal stimulus would remain in place
Note: Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exc
Baseline scenario: three months of mitigation measures would be enough to stem the pand
get underway once mitigation measures are lifted but would be hesitant.
Downside scenario: Three months of stringent lockdowns would prove insufficient and anot
mitigation would be required before the pandemic can be brought under control.
Upside scenario: Mitigation measures would be lifted after three months, and all major econ
back to life in the third quarter of 2020. Monetary and fiscal stimulus would remain in place
effective in supporting growth over the next 18 months.
Return to Read Me
 Baseline
2020 2021
World -13.4 5.3

2021

prices and market exchange rates.

ough to stem the pandemic. A recovery would
nt.
e insufficient and another three months of
der control.
hs, and all major economies would sputter
would remain in place and would be highly
 Downside/Upside range
2020 2021 2020 2021
10.4 7 3.2 0.5
Figure 1.3.1.E. Growth in EMDE regions in 2020

Percent Baseline
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
EAP ECA LAC MNA SAR
Source: World Bank.

Note: Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exc
Baseline scenario: three months of mitigation measures would be enough to stem the pand
get underway once mitigation measures are lifted but would be hesitant.
Downside scenario: Three months of stringent lockdowns would prove insufficient and anot
mitigation would be required before the pandemic can be brought under control.
Upside scenario: Mitigation measures would be lifted after three months, and all major econ
back to life in the third quarter of 2020. Monetary and fiscal stimulus would remain in place
Note: Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exc
Baseline scenario: three months of mitigation measures would be enough to stem the pand
get underway once mitigation measures are lifted but would be hesitant.
Downside scenario: Three months of stringent lockdowns would prove insufficient and anot
mitigation would be required before the pandemic can be brought under control.
Upside scenario: Mitigation measures would be lifted after three months, and all major econ
back to life in the third quarter of 2020. Monetary and fiscal stimulus would remain in place
effective in supporting growth over the next 18 months.
Return to Read Me
 Baseline

seline Downside EAP

ECA
0.5
-4.7
LAC -7.2
MNA -4.2
SAR -2.7
SSA -2.8

MNA SAR SSA

prices and market exchange rates.

ough to stem the pandemic. A recovery would
nt.
e insufficient and another three months of
der control.
hs, and all major economies would sputter
would remain in place and would be highly
Downside
-1.9
-7.8
-9.8
-5.9
-4.6
-5.2
Figure 1.3.1.F. Growth in EMDE regions in 2021

Percent Baseline
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
EAP ECA LAC MNA SAR
Source: World Bank.

Note: Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exc
Baseline scenario: three months of mitigation measures would be enough to stem the pand
get underway once mitigation measures are lifted but would be hesitant.
Downside scenario: Three months of stringent lockdowns would prove insufficient and anot
mitigation would be required before the pandemic can be brought under control.
Upside scenario: Mitigation measures would be lifted after three months, and all major econ
back to life in the third quarter of 2020. Monetary and fiscal stimulus would remain in place
Note: Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exc
Baseline scenario: three months of mitigation measures would be enough to stem the pand
get underway once mitigation measures are lifted but would be hesitant.
Downside scenario: Three months of stringent lockdowns would prove insufficient and anot
mitigation would be required before the pandemic can be brought under control.
Upside scenario: Mitigation measures would be lifted after three months, and all major econ
back to life in the third quarter of 2020. Monetary and fiscal stimulus would remain in place
effective in supporting growth over the next 18 months.
Return to Read Me
 Baseline

seline Downside EAP

ECA
6.6
3.6
LAC 2.8
MNA 2.3
SAR 2.8
SSA 3.1

MNA SAR SSA

prices and market exchange rates.

ough to stem the pandemic. A recovery would
nt.
e insufficient and another three months of
der control.
hs, and all major economies would sputter
would remain in place and would be highly
Downside
3.7
2.4
0.8
1
2.4
2.2