R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s Monday, 01 June 2020

STRATEGY – MALAYSIA
Alpha Picks: Catching The Late Ray Of Sunshine
Our May alpha picks underperformed the FBMKLCI (-3.6% vs the FBMKLCI’s +4.7%) KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
which was driven by the phenomenal rally in glove stocks. While our June alpha Share Target Upside
picks are designed to outperform in an expected market consolidation amid a Company Rec Price Price to TP
(RM) (RM) (%)
painfully slow post-lockdown domestic consumption recovery, they can also partly Astro BUY 0.99 1.20 21.2
capitalise on the ongoing retail investor-driven market euphoria. June picks: BUY Genting Malaysia BUY 2.32 2.89 24.6
Astro, Genting Malaysia, Tenaga, Top Glove; and SELL Carlsberg. Tenaga Nasional* BUY 11.26 14.50 28.8
Top Glove* BUY 13.30 14.72 10.7
WHAT’S NEW Carlsberg* SELL 28.88 24.30 (15.9)
 Alpha picks underperformed. Our alpha picks declined 3.6% mom vs the FBMKLCI’s *New addition
Source: UOB Kay Hian
+4.7% (see RHS table). British American Tobacco (BAT) declined the most (-12.6%)
followed by VS Industry (-4.3%) and Axiata (-3.6%). Astro was the sole outperformer PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
(+4.8%). Company Rec May 20 To-date*
(%) (%)
 Positioning for imminent market consolidation. Retail participation in Bursa Astro BUY 4.8 3.7
surprisingly reached phenomenal levels in May, lifting trading volumes to unseen Axiata BUY (3.6) 17.2
stratospheric heights and the FBMKLCI to a post Covid-19 lockdown high, hitting the BAT BUY (12.6) 4.7
technical bull-market threshold. However, market sentiment will eventually weaken in Genting Malaysia BUY (2.1) (25.4)
VS Industry BUY (4.3) (7.3)
reaction to weak economic fundamentals (reflecting a U-shaped economic recovery) and FBMKLCI 4.7
domestic political bickering that hinders pro-business policy implementation. *Share price change since stock was selected as alpha pick
Source: UOB Kay Hian
 Retail participation in Bursa to ease. Unlike in other countries, retail investors’
participation and enthusiasm may ease as the government further opens up the economy PORTFOLIO RETURN
in June, with the rationale that the re-opening of other forms of gambling would dilute (%) 2019 1Q20
retailers’ focus. Key risk events to note include: a) Bursa lifting the ban on short selling in FBMKLCI return -6.0 -15.0
July; b) potential motion of confidence against Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin when Alpha Picks Return
parliament reconvenes in July; and c) the expiry of bank loan and interest repayment - Price-weighted 7.3 -14.4
- Market cap-weighted 1.1 -9.7
moratorium in Sep 20.
- Equal-weighted 10.1 -18.8
ACTION Assumptions for the 3 methodologies:
1) Price-weighted: Assuming the same number of shares for each stock,
 Big makeover in June alpha picks: BUY Astro, GENM, Tenaga, Top Glove and SELL a higher share price will have a higher weighting.
Carlsberg. We added Top Glove and Tenaga to our conviction BUY list. Top Glove 2) Market cap-weighted: Weighting is based on the market cap at
remains a compelling earnings momentum play despite its huge price gains ytd, as ASPs inception date, a higher market cap will have a higher weighting.
3) Equal-weighted: Assuming the same investment amount for each
continue to trend up, while Tenaga’s past two days’ of selldown create an opportunistic stock, every stock will have the same weighting.
buy. Astro remains a compelling dividend-yield compression play and we expect Genting Source: UOB Kay Hian
Malaysia’s (GENM) to post modest price gains once the government allows Genting
Highlands to reopen. However, we dropped BAT and Axiata following their significant
earnings misses for 1Q20, and VS Industry which lacks near-term catalysts. Carlsberg
debuts as a SELL as current lofty valuations ignore the big earnings and dividend fallout
for 2020, and receivable risks given the business closure risks for many F&B outlets and
pubs, which we estimate account for 20% of its sales.
ANALYSTS’ TOP ALPHA* PICKS
Analyst Company Rec Performance# Catalyst
Chloe Tan Astro BUY 3.7 1QFY21 should confirm Astro’s falling TV subscription
revenue has been arrested in the interim quarters, reinforcing
our view that income will be sustainable to support high
dividend yield, which will rise from 7.5% in FY21 to 9.3% in
FY22.
Vincent Khoo & Genting BUY (25.4) Government’s nod to re-open will see a modest uplift for the
Jack Goh Malaysia shares. Year-end catalyst is its ability to sustain high
dividends (yielding almost 7%).
Chong Lee Len Tenaga BUY n.a. Good earnings visibility, undemanding valuation and active
Nasional capital management. ANALYST(S)
Philip Wong Top Glove BUY n.a. Scarcity safe-haven earnings growth that is unrivalled across Vincent Khoo, CFA
the other sectors, more aggressive ASP pricing relative to +603 2147 1998
peers and an opportune capacity expansion to capture vincentkhoo@uobkayhian.com
additional windfall profits during this period.
Philip Wong Carlsberg SELL n.a. Poor visibility for demand recovery, while the suspension of Malaysia Research Team
1Q20 dividend highlights receivable risks. +603 2147 1988
* Denotes a timeframe of 1-3 months and not UOB Kay Hian’s usual 12-month investment horizon for stock recommendation
research@uobkayhian.com
# Share price change since stock was selected as alpha pick

Source: UOB Kay Hian

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R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s Monday, 01 June 2020

Astro – BUY (Chloe Tan)

 Astro is one of the few companies benefitting from the country’s stay home order as it
continues to play an important role to keep Malaysians informed and entertained. The fall in
subscription revenue is abating due to tail-end of premiumisation of its subscriber base.
 FY21 content costs are expected to remain low at about 36% of TV revenue in the absence
of sporting rights purchases. Low content costs should offset higher provisions for
receivables and recent rebates to sports subscribers.
 Astro has launched more OTT apps (beyond Astro Go) to enhance its content value in a bid
to differentiate itself in a fragmented streaming market. The group had also entered into a
few bundling programmes with internet service providers (ISP) in an effort to supplement its
core business to defend revenue.
Share Price Catalyst
 1QFY21 should confirm Astro’s falling TV subscription revenue has been arrested in the
interim quarters, reinforcing our view that income will be sustainable to support high dividend
yield which will rise from 7.5% in FY21 to 9.3% in FY22.

Genting Malaysia – BUY (Vincent Khoo & Jack Goh)

 GENM is one of the cheapest casino stocks globally and may retain high DPS payout to
deliver a dividend yield of above 6.5%, which would be among the top-yielding Bursa-listed
companies. GENM can theoretically maintain its DPS payout in 2020 using its high cash
backing despite a significant fall in 2020F EBITDA.
 We expect Genting Highlands to see a moderate recovery until the COVID-19 pandemic is
contained, given that GENM is highly dependent on tourists from ASEAN countries where
the number of COVID-19 cases are relatively under control and on a declining trend. Share
price has rebounded about 2% from its low.
 We also expect pent-up demand from local trippers (who account for 65-70% of Genting
Highland’s visitors) on the government’s economic stimulus package including incentive
vouchers to promote domestic tourism and safer inbound travelling.
Share Price Catalyst
 Sustainable high dividend yield of >6.5%, taking into account that GENM’s capex for the
construction of its outdoor theme park is nearing completion.
 Gradual resumption of retail and F&B businesses after a temporary closure to comply with
MCO.

Tenaga Nasional – BUY (Chong Lee Len)

 The stock offers good earnings visibility as 70% of net profit is protected under the IBR
framework. Its cash flow prowess paves the way for active capital management and we
believe TNB is able to match its RM1/share net DPS in 2019. This translates into an
attractive dividend yield of 8%. In addition, TNB is not exposed to demand risk as the IBR
framework has factored in a 1.8% annual electricity growth rate from 2018 to 2020. Reiterate
BUY and DCF-based target price of RM14.50.
Share Price Catalyst
 a) Special dividend in 2020; b) a fair outcome for Regulatory Period 3 (RP3) by end of this
year; and c) longer-term operational savings from TNB’s reorganisation exercise.

Top Glove – BUY (Philip Wong)

 We like the stock for its scarcity safe-haven earnings growth that is unrivalled across the
other sectors, more aggressive ASP pricing relative to peers and an opportune capacity
expansion to capture additional windfall profits in during this period. The stock is currently
trading at 27.1x 2021F PE, below its 3-year (2017-19) -1SD band of 29.5x.

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R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s Monday, 01 June 2020

Share Price Catalyst

 Demand spike for gloves has translated into ASPs surging to unprecedented heights.
Current ASPs are 40-50% higher yoy and are expected to trend up further until end-20.
 Earnings are expected to grow multi-fold at a 2-year CAGR of 87% (2019-21).

 Further levers on earnings expansion include down-trending raw material prices and
strengthening of the US$.

Carlsberg – SELL (Philip Wong)

 Expected to face significant near-term headwinds. To preserve its cash, Carlsberg has
suspended its 1Q20 dividend. Although it has a healthy balance sheet, it is susceptible due
to its relatively small shareholders’ equity. The stock is trading at 34.6x 2021F PE, or >+2SD
of its 3-year mean PE of 26.4x.
Share Price Catalyst
 Near-term demand headwinds arising from crippled on-trade channel sales due to COVID-
19.

 Uncertain macroeconomic conditions could translate into softened demand and trade
receivables write-off ballooning, which will weigh on working capital.

VALUATION
Price Target Last --------------------- PE ------------------- Yield ROE Market Price/
Company Ticker Rec 29 May 20 Price Year 2019 2020F 2021F 2020F 2020F Cap. NTA ps
(RM) (RM) End (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) (US$m) (x)
Astro* ASTRO MK BUY 0.99 1.20 01/20 7.9 8.0 8.1 7.5 65.6 1,188 (5.7)
Genting Malaysia GENM MK BUY 2.32 2.89 12/19 12.3 (56.6) 11.4 6.9 n.a 3,019 0.8
Tenaga Nasional TNB MK BUY 11.26 14.50 12/19 12.5 11.6 11.6 8.9 9.5 14,741 1.1
Top Glove TOPG MK BUY 13.30 14.72 08/19 93.4 39.5 26.6 1.3 32.7 7,982 11.9
Carlsberg CAB MK SELL 28.88 24.30 12/19 41.4 34.7 31.4 2.2 89.0 2,033 1.6
*FYE Jan 20. 2019-21F represents 2020-22F respectively.
Source: UOB Kay Hian

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R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s Monday, 01 June 2020

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