Renewable Energy 88 (2016) 40-155, = Renewable ney Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Renewable Energy journal homepage: www. com/locate/renene Climate change impacts on techno-economic performance of roof PV solar system in Australia Moo Wei Wu Ma *, M.G. Rasul ®, Gang Liu *, Min Li**, Xiao Hui Tan * * saa of ery cence and Entering, Centra South Unser, Cheng 41008, Hanan, Cina ™ Cenval Quersand Univers, Powe Eneay Resear Group, acy of Sciences, ngicering and Hel, Ausae ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT ‘ce atone 10 November 2015 Accepted November 2015, ‘slab online 10 December 2015 ‘The techno-economic performance of roof PV solar system depends on local climatic conditions. The energy conversion behavior of PY system will change asa result of the new solar irradiation data caused by climate change. This study aims to investigate the quantified impacts of elimate change onthe future performance of PV roof system with a general electricity load and legal maximum sizeof solar array In this study, the morphing method is employed to predict the future hourly mean global solar irradiation data for the year 2030, 2050 and 2070. By using the current and future solar irradiation data as the myo ‘npats,a simulation mode of PY systems built o simulate the long-term implementation of the systems Serriyaan in the capital Gties of Australian states, The solutions ofthe model given by computer programme, in Climate ange Clues the system's electricity generation, greenhouse gas emissions, and cost of energy are analysed, and all the solutions ate compated between different climatic conditions ofall the capital cites. eis Shown tha there isa nearly linear corelation between the increase of average external ar temperature And the increase of solar iadition from 2030 to 2070, For the PV sytem inthe majority of cities, a 10 “Zor increase of economic costs between the 2030 and 2050 climate scenario would be required. It is also found thatthe Hoa system has the best techno-economie performance with the lowest economic Techno-scanamicanayis fost and highe newable fraction, at both current climate Future climate "© 2015 Elsevier Lc, Al rights reserved, 1. Introduction, Solar PY power system is seen as an important solution for energy crisis and environmental problem. In Australi, there are a ‘number of financial incentives for installing small PV systems to assist the consumption of residential and other small power users i Itis now commonly recognized as having significant potential 0 seriously affect the integrity of our ecosystems and human welfare. Solar PV system which highly dependents on the natural resources will need to withstand changing climatic conditions for along time span (2050 years). Therefore, a long-term change ofthe climate, has included the uncertainty in solar PV systems’ response to the changing solar irradiation likewise as all the other climatic condi- tions [2.3], This requires current and future PV system designers to perform satisfactorily under changing climatic conditions. ‘The impacts of climate change on solar irradiation and PV * Coresponding author. mal ede elimin?803alLcom (M. Li, epedo.og/ 1010165 renene 2015 11.088 ‘050-180 2015 Elsevier Ld Aight seve systems’ implementation have been highlighted in a number of research projects |4-6), Overall, these studies confirmed that un- der climate change the solar energy resource would be more sig- nificant, but the extent of those impacts dependent on climate change would vary region to region. Few previous studies pre- sented quantified information on the consequence of change in systems electricity generation due to potential climate change. Moreover, in spite of some studies predicted the performance of PV power generation [7-9], they used historical data but not the future climatic data as inputs. In hence, the impacts of climate change on future performance of PV systems is unclear yet. In addition, The air temperature variations along the years can be evaluated analysing historical data of air temperature in different places. Ie is know that solar irradiation and surrounding tempera- {ure ae increasing with the time. However, these increments has t0 bbe quantified with an specific method clear and based on physical ‘magnitudes [10 These tasks are very arduous and dificult but its nportant to ase the result in measurements notin published data or published qualitative concepts. This paper aims to quantify the impacts of climate change on the performance of a PV roof power system in Australia,WW a ta / Renewable ney 882016) 20-198 wa Through developing computer simulation model for residential PV roof power system and using the inputs like the increase of surrounding temperature, solar irradiation, costs of components, arid electricity tariff, and emission factors, the extent of changed electricity generation and carbon dioxide emission mitigation imposed by external solar irradiation change is analyzed. These results provide resident occupants and energy consultants with information on what extent of energy saving, return of investment and emission reduction bought by PY system under the current and future climate. Itis believed that the results from this research will {orm a basis forthe formulation of government incentives policies and renewable energy subsidies regulation, For the electrical sector and industry, these results can be used as a reference to make the best solar energy strategies. 2. Research methodology This research was undertaken using computer-based! renewable energy system simulation, with forecast weather data and sam- pling PV system model as the inputs. This section introduces the data generation, PV modelling, and PV system simulation tool. The results of an Australian PV system simulation process, regarding 10 all electricity generation, costs, renewable fraction, and carbon ‘oxide emission reduction will be discussed in the next section. 2.1, Prediction of hourly solar irradiation dara LL, Historic solar irradiation data collection Hourly global solar irradiation data as the critical factors of solar PV energy resource, which was collected from the Bureau of ‘Meteorology (BOM) of Australia |11). The Australian climatic con- litions of the eight states (Queensland, Northern Territory, South Australia, Tasmania, Australian Capital Territory, Vitoria, Western Australia and New South Wales) are listed in Table I. The data in this table demonstrate the information about coordinates, annually average irradiation and hight of airport weather stations in the Capital cites of the eight states mentioned above. It is found that the average global solar irradiation in Australia is between 3.83 (Tasmania) and 5.79 (Northern Territory) kWh/m?/day, and the irradiation data largely dependents on their latitude. The higher latitude location has the lower solar irradiations. 2.12. Australian climate change scenarios ‘The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released their fourth assessment report about the potential impacts of imate changes on human and natural systems throughout the ‘world including Australia |11). The hourly data of average tem- perature and future global solar irradiation were predicted ac- cording different emissions and etror scenarios until 2030 (Fig. (a)) or 2070 (Fig. 1(b). The temperature difference and solar inradiation difference are shown in Fi. 2 ‘The projection of years of 2030, 2050 and 2070 ate used to represent the future climate change. It is noted that the low case and high case scenarios involved in such a specific projected year to span the most likely range of possibilities, caused by the limitation ‘of current climate models and the uncertainties of furure GHG emissions, which are subject to the future population growth, technological change, and social and political behaviour, ete. In the report, the 50th percentile climate scenario (the mid-point of the spread of model results) provides a best estimate result. The 10th percentiles climate scenario and 90th percentiles climate scenario lowest 10% and highest 10% ofthe spread of model results) provide 2a range of uncertainty. All the discussions about climate scenarios ‘on this study are based on the 50th percentile climate scenario. tis {ound from Fi. | that till 2070 the temperature increases moze in central Australia than other parts and the solar radiation increases ‘more in south Australia than north, In this study, all the High ‘emissions cases are considered in the calculations, and a sensitivity analysis is taken to present the uncertainties of other climate pre- diction scenarios. In this study, for comparing the impacts of climate change on the PV roof systems’ performance, five sets of solar irradiation data are needed for the computer simulation model, and therefore, four ‘weather data files are required to represent the four weather sce- narios. By using these climate prediction scenarios as simulation inputs, the calculation results, such as electricity generation, renewable fraction, and emissions, wll be present inthis study, and the errors caused by the climate scenarios’ uncertainties would be ina percentage interval [3% 3] depending on positive or negative indicators, which will be discussed in Section 3.3.4 Sensitivity ‘analysis, This is because of the uncertainties of the climate ‘Scenario Current: Present climate — actual observed hourly ‘weather data selected as the test reference year for a specific study site ‘= Scenario 2030: Future climate — year of 2030, High emissions ‘ase, 50th percentage ‘+ Scenario 2050: Future climate ~ year of 2050, High emissions ‘ease, 50th percentage ‘* Scenario 2070: Future climate ~ year of 2070, High emissions ‘ase, 50th percentage ‘To carryout the calculation ofthe techno-economic parameters, ‘of the solar PV systems. the upper limits of temperature differences and solar irradiation differences are demonstrated in Table 2. By 2030, the increases of both temperature and solar irradiation are 4uite similar in all the cities, respectively 1 and 1% increase. From 2030 to 2050, Adelaide and Sydney have 15 temperature increase, ‘while other cities have 2. As to Solar irradiation in this period, Adelaide and Melbourne have 2% increases, while other cities have 1%, From 2050 to 2070, Perth has the largest temperature increase ‘rblet “The normation of weather tations States or wenn ‘Wouter aati Coordinates 7 o ‘@ueensland ‘shane Ineratonl Arpor 27a, SSE ry 0 Sour atstala [Adlai international Arpor 3505, 135 495 5 ‘Astalian Capital Tertoy (Canberra International Aiport, 3538, Mare 481 w Northern Testary DavanArpor 2585, 30 33 20 Tasmania Hobar Airport ass 75 E cra 2 Vitor Metbourne International Aiport 35, aoe 42 19 ‘Western Australia Perth international Apert 3195, 160 522 20 Nest South Wales ‘yen Inteatona Ape 39S. 455 5 ere eepresnts global solr iraaion, WHR? ay and HFepresents Bightam WW Aa a / Renewable Energy 6 (20165) 430-438 Sam ee (a) Temperature e (b) Solar irradiation Fig 1. Preiction of average neteroopel data for Astral [1 of 3° C.and Hobart and Sydney increase 2 and other cities increase 25 * C In this twenty years, Melbourne's solar irradiation grows fast (5%), while Adelaide, Hobart and Perth have 2% solar irradiation increase, and other cities increase 1% ‘The approach of using a single reference year weather data (Le. test reference year weather data), which is selected to represent the average weather patterns of multi-year data set for a particular location, is adopted in this study. The test reference year (TRY) weather data for each study location are used to represent the current weather condition. The TRY weather data for all the state capital cities around Australia are supplied by ACADS-BSG, a specialist consulting company based in Melbourne. Based on the climate change scenarios including future average temperature (Fig. 1a) predicted by the government research agency Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization [12), the TRY weather data ate modified by the approximately imposed method (Fig. 1Xb) to generate the future hourly weather data for each capital city in Australia| 13} ‘The projection of years of 2030, 2050 and 2070 are used to repre- sent the short and fong-term future global warming, Itis noted that the Low and High scenarios have been used fora specific projected ‘year to span the most likely range of possibilities. This is due to the limitation of current climate models and the uncertainties of future CHG emissions, which are subject tothe future population growth, technological change, and social and political behaviour, ete. and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), the solar data is ‘modified by the morphing method to generate the future hourly weather data for each capital city in Australia. 213. The morphing method ‘The morphing method was developed by Belcher, Hacker, and Powell [14] to produce design weather data for building thermal system and other energy systems simulations that accounts for future changes to climate. in this study, the morphing, method is employed to generate the hourly data of future solar irradiation for the system simulation. In the morphing method, the baseline climate is defined as the present-day weather sequence averaged over a number of previous ‘years. The appropriate scaling factor can be obtained from the ab- solute change and the monthly mean value from the observed baseline climate 14); agstin 1+ (DSSFn/ <8579 > m) a ‘Whete SSP. is the total downward surface shortwave flux, W/m? DSSF is a key parameter to addressing many climate, ‘The prediction of meteccalogcl data under climate hange (upper nit values) ‘According to the climate change scenarios predicted by the " a government research agency Australian Commonwealth Scientific §__®UOQ Mame) alan’) at ‘sine % we 3 ie Ginter te 28 te Darwin ra es te Hobart 10 ra % 20 m Loed Pv Metoume 10 te fay sl 5 Perth % do m Shiney w me __20 ie ri ‘able? ‘Thess components sles description Convertor ay) rrr Components Ske options —_tntepretaton =o Thin is PV: DC power generation ae as 2 sissI3e Converter count) DCIAC converter Gird elec (Oy emission factor 824 g/kWh Fig. 2. PV system contiguationWW a ta / Renewable ney 882016) 20-198 = meteorological, and solar energy issues. Under clear sky conditions, SSF is particularly sensitive to the variability both in time and space ofthe aerosol load and chemical composition. gsr means the slobal solar radiation, Wim?: and, agsr mean the global solar ra- dliation scaling factor. This Scaling factor is then applied to all ‘months m in the time series using Eq. (2) In addition, the value of this DSSF has been calculated by Re. 11], and the results of gsrhave ‘been given by Eq. (2) directly in this study. BST = a8STm X E570 (2) The correct absolute increase in monthly means for the trans~ formed time series is obtained by this equation. According to this, ‘method, there is increased solar irradiance on sunny days, but the ‘number of sunny days is unchanged (14) 22, System simulation ‘To simulate the solar PV roof system, its modeling is developed as shown in Fig. 2. The sample PV system has a DC (Direct Current) PV array as the energy generator, as well as a DC battery as elec- tricity storage system (Table 3). The system has also an inverter converting electricity between DC and AC (Altemating Current), because the grid and load is AC which is different to the curvent type of PY array. The modelling of sample system is solved by HOMER software. {As the details of performance parameters shown in Table 4 the PV array size is 510 KW depending on the focal legal, and the type is thin films PV generating DC power. Two S4KS25P batteries, pro- duced by Rolls/Surrete company (15), are chosen as a storage component. Six inverters are added as the CDJAC converter, The arid which has 924 g/kWh CO, emission is also connected in the ‘model, When the PV power generation is more than the electricity consumption, the PV electricity is sold to the grid. When the PV power generation is less than the electricity consumption, users purchase electricity from the grid. 22.1. PV modelling PV array converts solar energy into DC electricity energy in direct proportion to the global solar irradiation incident upon it ‘The power output of the PV array is calculated by Eq. (3) 16) which isa telation of PY derating factor. b Pov Sov @) ‘where, fry is the PV derating factor; Yy the rated capacity of the PV array, in kW; Ir the global solar irradiation (beam plus diffuse) incident on the surface of the PV array in Refs. kWjmn”; and fs the standard amount of irradiation used rate the capacity of the PV array which is 1 KW)m?. 22.2. Renewable faction For a renewable energy system, its renewable fraction specifies, the contribution from renewable energy sources. In such an energy system, renewable fraction fry is given by Eq, (4): (4) where Ey is the amount of electricity generated from PV cell, in kWh; Eons isthe amount of annual energy consumption, in kWh and it is calculated by Eq. (5) ables over eneraton ofthe Ade stem Toner generation caren 252705 Solr coraton (i) Ose aS e300 owe? Grdpurcuescwnn) SEG GOGAT Gra as S505 Sanna as Eannsoe = Ev + Berit 6) ‘where Foy is the electricity purchased from the grid, in kWh. 223, Emissions For a grid-connected system, grid electricity consumed by the system brings emissions, because Australian grid electricity is generated from coal, petrol and nature gas et. fossil fuel energy resources, As a result, the percentage of grid electricity generation inthe system decides the amount of emissions. Inthe current study, the carbon dioxide emission which is calculated by Eq. (5) has been considered in the emission simulation. Bm = Qua * Fens (6) ‘where Ems the emissions, kg/year. Fens the electricity purchased {rom the grid, kg. Fry is the GHG emissions (g CO,-equivalent per kg) from grid electricity [12|. The value of emission factor for different states grid and diferent emission types [17|-In this article, ‘nly CO» has been discussed in the environmental impacts of the systems, Al the calculations of those parameters and equations are car- tied out by HOMER software [16] which was originally designed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. 23, Calculation conditions ‘The economic calculation conditions, which includes facility prices, grid electricity tariff, and feed-in tariff depending on different states policy, are the main impact factors on the system's performance and its optimization, Fig. 3 shows the plots of elec- tricity prices and feed-in tariffs in Australian states and the dashed lines show the feed-in tariffs. In Adelaide, there are two types of electricity prices: summer and winter. Summer tarifFis 3237 cents per kWh which isa litle higher than 30.73 cents per kWh in winter, There are only one prices for electricity consumption in Canberra (20.13 cents per kWh), Darwin (27.13 cents per kWh), Hobart (26.807 cents per kWh) and Perth (29.316 cents per kWh) have only ‘two tariffs The feed-back tariff ate respectively 44 cents per kWh, 50 cents per kWh, 45.76 cents per kWh and 40 cents per kWh for these four cities, For the other three cities Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney, graduated power tariff is used, where tariff varies ‘depending on peak or off-peak time. Feed-back tariffs 44 cents per kWh for Brisbane and 60 cents per kWh for both Melbourne and Sydney. ‘The parameters of the electricity load are also used as calcula tion conditions ofthe long-term implementation ofthe sample PV system. Electricity load per day is 23 KW h and peak power is, 2.4 KW. The hourly data of electricity load are used as the inputs of the simulation, Moreover, other economic conditions include the prices of all the facilities. Film PV cells considered in this study, are considered .a5$ 4500 per kW and $ 4000 for replacement. Battery is valued as $ 1250 and $ 1100 for replacement, while converter is § 800 per KW and $ 750 per kW for replacement.WW Aa a / Renewable Energy 6 (20165) 430-438 Adelaide brisbane oa we 8 | | Eo. q Cee osteo ion eres go mu sore aan hous Ga day Hous cia dy canbera Darwin oa Zon 2 g 8 faz Eo2 5 fe ores 0 are ete mte an ous Gia day Hours fa dy Hobart Netboure a os = 3 5 oa 2 od S nmmnnneennnnnnnonnnnnes, § fez Soa aie 2l e120) Hours of a day Perth oe) Hours of a day sydney Price, AUS. Sage 161120) Hours of a day aero see iaee ge 16) 20) Hours of a day, Fig 3 Mts f lect pies and edi tis in Aus. The dad nes show the fei ais In addition, some impact factors about environment are also, defined in the simulation as well. In this study, the grid electricity ‘generation with 924 g carbon dioxide emission for per kWh elec- tricity generation [17] Is defined in the computer simulation, 231. System simulation andl optimization problem ‘Asthe system design was posed as an optimization problem, the objective functions were formulated corresponding to system Implementations [18-20], The system options are the various configurations combining with different sizes of PV arrays, batte- ries and converters. Inthe systems comparison between different climate scenarios and different cites, all the system performance parameters have been optimized and then discussed. ‘When producing a given amount of electricity, the optimized system has the lowest costs in the system's whole life cycles therefore, the objective function |18| of optimization can be givenWW a ta / Renewable ney 882016) 20-198 25 by Faq.) Minimize: [(gm) + (Essen) « (eSeao) at wat «(ene Sheen] rs ris I (0) ‘Where Gis the investment cos, in $; Nthe number of each system components, in $; 04M; the operation and maintenance cost, in $; R,the replacement cos, in S; Erp the electricity purchased from the aid, in kWh: Pep the price of electricity purchased from the grid, in S/kWh; Fs the electricity sold back to the grid, in kWh; Pys the price of electricity sold back to the grid, in $/kWh, 3, Results and discussion 2.1. Representation of results ‘The optimized grid-connected PV system is surveyed in this study. Through predicting future climate data and comparing the future data and current data, the variation of solar irradiation and temperature caused by climate change is obtained. By using the predicted hourly temperature data and houtly solar irradiation data (a) Hourly solar irradiation via climate change as the inputs of the system’s techno-economic modeling, the sys- tems’ performances ate predicted and evaluated, Three types of performances, regarding all the economical performance, techno- logical performance and environmental performance of the opti: mized system, are presented and discussed in this section. ‘After the discussion on climatic data prediction results, the system performances are compared among the diferent cities and different climate scenarios. As indicators of the economic petfor- ‘mance of PY systems, net present cost (NPC. $), cost of energy (COE, $S]kWh) and return on investment (ROL yrs) are used to measure the financial quality. Renewable fraction (RF, %) and carhon dioxide emissions (CO,, kgiyr) are used as environmental performances. Solar electricity generation (EG. kWh), grid purchase (GP. kWhlyr), and grid sales (GS, kWh(yr) are calculated to measure the systems technological performance. All the performance indicators are discussed via the climate scenarios (current, 2030, 2050 and 2070), 3.2, Data prediction results By using the temperature difference and solar irradiation dif- ference shown in Table 2 as the independent variables, the future data of hourly global solar itradiation and temperature are obtained by Eqs (1) and (2), and shown in Fig. 4, Four solar resources data files with 8760 hourly data are generated for the four climate sce- narios (current, 2030, 2050 and 2070) of each city. As shown in Fig. (a), the daily mean global solar irradiation for different sce- narios have the same profile but the values vary from scenario t0 scenario, Scenario 4 (2070) has the highest solar irradiation more (b) Hourly average surrounding tempera- ‘ture via climate change (c) Annually average solar irradiation and temperature, future data for all cities Pe Prediction f tol sla radiation and houly temperate26 WHE Aa Renee Energy 882015) 420-438 at sti vot arsore 14 1“ 24 022 * fos g i lowe 235 ais gx ore 2s} oz F Bs long 225 x3 gM : Fe Fran bon aaton tae 22 Free ame Bates aoe cartena +00 5 100 ae ¥ -a0o Pres. bade —~SRG “TO Pres 8808 “Ste Boe — sar 212 sysrey ozs S i amp Baw loam Bua =! loo Es Bz 2s loa 1 Pres. a0e—~S08G0—B TO Pres a0808—S0bbe——2ooe Fig 5 lt flac pices and fed-n tal in Ausalla The dashed lines show the fen al than 680 W/m? at 13:00, and Scenario 1 (current climate) has the least solar irradiation around $30 W/m? at the same time. As seen from the curves in Fi. (a for future solar irradiation and Fig, (b) for future temperature, their morphing ratio depend on the sce- ratios as introduced above. Its found from Fig. 4(¢) that, there isa linear relationship between future mean daiy solar irradiation and temperature. The linear function is marked in the figure Y=3.X + 01 with a good correlation coefficients R=0.8322. To sum up, solar irradiation and temperature increases a few With the time. This is because global watming caused by green hhouse gases emissions. 33. System simulation results 3.31, Economie performance ‘The impacts of solar irradiation on the system cost of all the cities are shown in Fig. 5. Because ofthe climate change, the eco- ‘nomic performance of some systems increase with the time and some others decrease. In Adelaide, the system’s NPC varies from 12,216 to 12,741 dollars from current to 2070, while the COE varies from 0.114 to 0.119 $/kWh, The best performance occurs under the climate scenario of 2030s. This is caused by the changes of both solar irradiations and surrounding temperatures. In Brisbane, the system's NPC varies from 22802 to 23.133, dollars from current to 2070s, while the COE varies from 0.114 to (0.119 §/kWh. The best performance occurs under the climate see- nario of 2050s. This is caused by the changes of both solar irradi- ations and surrounding temperatures. Similarly, Canberra, Darwin, Hobat, Perth and Sydney have the best economic performance in the same stage. In total, the Canberra system has the least cast, where the NPC is around 100 $ and COE is nearly zero every year. Differently, the system in Hobat has the best economicWW a ta / Renewable ney 882016) 20-198 7 8 Return of vesterd, Years ‘Adel Bs ‘Can Darw Me Pert Syn Hobe Fg 6 turn ofivestment fr al eats under diferent climate condons. Renewable acon, % ‘Ail Brie Cand Daw Hoba Me Par Sycn ig. 7. Renewable ration lol eatons under diferent ciate conan performance in 2070s. Its COE keep around 1.8 $)kWh between the ‘current climatic conditions and 2050s, and then swift drops to 1.74 sfkwh, {As to the return of investment, climate change has only slightly impacts on all the system. As can be seen from Fig. 6, the Hobat system has the longest payback time, neariy 17 years. With climate change, the system built in 2070s has the shortest payback time, ‘which means the climate in 2070s is better fora roof PV system in this area. However, almost other systems have shorter payback time in 2030s or 2050s, while there might be a longest payback time in 2070s, 3.32. Environmental performance ‘The renewable fraction ofall the systems are shown in Fig. 7. The systems in Adelaide, Canberra, Hobat and Perth have higher renewable fraction between 60% and 80%, while the renewable {action of the Brisbane, Darwin, Melbourne and Sydney systems are around 50% As can be seen from Fig. 7, only the Darwin system has the significant impacts by the climate change, and the other systems have less impacts ofthe climate changes. This notes that the former four systems have the better environmental petfor- ances, where have less emissions caused by non-renewable en- ergy resources. The majority ofthe systems have higher renewable fraction in 2030s and 2050s, and the lowest renewable fraction in 2070s. This means that the environmental performance ofa roof PV ‘nbtes Correction frre of clelton resus fr feren imate scenarios Teceng Paine Raion Negative aleions iow i iow Hah Toih pecenage 1% Ve = rs Sot peeenage a ° w 0 20th perenne 3 te a % system would decrease caused by climate change between 2050s and 2070s. Based on the environmental analysis, the CO2 emissions data are contrast to the renewable fraction. The higher renewable Iraction, the less emissions, 3.33. Technological performance For the technological performance, the Adelaide system as an example to discuss the solar generation, grid purchases and geid sales. The system has 6528 kW hjyear solar generation under the ‘current climate, and increase to 6543 KW h per year under the climate of 20305, as a results ofthe changes of solar irradiation and temperature caused by climate change. Then it decrease 10 (6506 KW h per year and G487 kW h per year forthe 2050s climate and 2070s climate. Because the total power consumption is a Constant, the grid purchases and grid sales also change depending ‘on the power generation change. 3.34, Sensitivity analysis The purpose of the sensitivity analysis is to quantify the un- certainties in the predictions due to the variations of the future imate data projection. The sensitivity analysis involves both Low and High emission cases. Table 5 shows that the variations in the calculated indicators (including positive and negative) are within 3% when the climate data projection varies from 10th to 90th percentile. In the table, the positive indicators mean that the Climate change has positive impacts on them, including power sgeneration and renewable fraction. By contrast, negative indicators are those thatthe climate change has negative impacts on them, for example, costs and emissions. It should be noted that all the calculation results in Table 5 are the upper limit, implying that the relative errors would be in a percentage interval [-3% 1] when ‘some uncertainty exists in the climate data projection.28 WHE Aa Renee Energy 88 (2015) 420-438 4. Conclusion ‘Through investigating the historical solar resource data and Australian climate change scenarios, the future solar data is pre- dicted for solar PV system simulation. The morphing method is used fo generate the hourly global solar irradiation data and tem- perature forall the capital cities in Australia. By using the predicted climate data, a PV system with a load of 23 KW hjday is simulated by HOMER software. The economic, environmental and technical performance ate compared between different climate scenarios (present climate, 2030s, 2050s, 2070s). I is found that for the majority of Australian states, a roof PV system generates the most electricity and has the highest renew- able fraction in the 2030s. In this stage, these systems have the lowest NPC and COE, which means they have the best economic performance. This performance is better than the roof PV system running under the current climatic conditions. The least PV power _generation and the lowest renewable fraction is seen in the 2070s climate scenario for the majority of cites. 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