SIMPLIFYING 50 CHALLENGING PROBLEMS [Problem Hint/Term to look for [Answer | JA drawer contains red socks and black socks. When two socks are |The probability that both are Jdrawn at random, the probabilty fred is 05 that both are red is 0.5 (a) How small can the number of J(2) number of socks in the lsocks in the drawer be? drawer be (b) How small ifthe number of }(b) black socks is even black socks is even? | Title ro encourage Eimer promising tens career, his father offers him a prize fhe wins (atleast) [To encourage Emer's wo tennis sets n a row ina teee- promising tennis career set sores to be played with his father and the club champion _| he wins (at east) Ichampion-Father-Champion ftennis sets in a row in @ jor CFC JA three-man jury has two Jmembers each of whom independently has probability p of Jmaking the correct decision and a third. member who fips a coin for ich decision (majorty rules). A Jone-man jury has probabilty p of Imaking the correct decision. JWhich jury has the better lprobabilty of making the correct laecision? Jon the average, how many times |*“°"°2* ‘Trials until First Success |must 2 cie be thrown until one Pa joots 3 67 a die be thrown unt one In common camival game player tosses @ penny fom a stance of about 5 feet onto the surface of a table ruled in V-nch squares. Ifthe penny (0.75 inch oe in chameter) fais entrely inside a J", N° surioce of 8 Isquare, the player receives § — Jcerts but does not get his penny Jvack; otherwise he loses his penny. Ifthe penny lands on the table, what's his chance to win?Curing the Compulsive Gambier [Chuck-a-Luck is a gambling game Joften played at camivals and lgambiing houses. A player may bet on any one of the numbers |, 2, 3, 4,5, 6. Three dice rolled. ifthe players number Jappears on one, two, or three of the dice, he receives respectively Jone, two, or three times. his Joriginal stake plus his own money back: otherwise he Joses his stake What is the players expected foss per unit stake? (Actually the player may distribute stakes on several ‘but each such stake Jon the number 13 at roulette Jagainst the advice of Kind [Friend To help cure Mr. Brown ‘of playing roulette, Kind Friend at the end of 36 plays. How is cure working? (Most Jpiayer’s. number comes up, he is paid 35 times his stake and gets of cards, what is the chance that you are dealt a perfect hand (13 his original stake plus his Jown money back otherwise he loses his stake nat is the player's expected loss per unit stake” Jrumber 13 at roulette lagainst the advice of Kind +2.79 dollars per 36 trials‘An Experiment in Personal Taste for Money game of craps, played with two dice, is one of America! fastest and most popular Jaambiing games, Calculating the these. Only totals forthe two dice Jcount. The player throws the dice Jand wins. at once if the total for tne frst throw is 7 oF 11, loses Jat once if itis 2, 3, or 12. Any Jotner throw is called his “point."* tthe first throw sa point, the player throws the dice repeatedly unt he either wins by throwing his point again or toses by throwing 7. What 1 the player's JAn urn contains 10 black balls and 10. white balls, identical Jexcept for color. You choose | ack" or White" One ball is atches your choice, you get $10, otherwise nothing. rite down the Jmaximum amount you are wiling to pay to play the game. The Joame will be played just once. friend of yours. has available any black and many white balls and he puts black and white Jbals ito the um to suit himself. [You choose “black” or “white.” foals drawn randomiy from this Jur, Write down the maxmum Jamount you are wiling to pay to play this game The game will be The game of craps JWhat the player's Jenance to win? Jan urn contains 10 black oats and 10 nite balls, JExpected value is half of he Thus, betting $10 would give us $5 as expected Write down the maximum Jamount you are wiling to to play the game JA balls drawn randomly trom this urn. Jwate down the maximum Jamount you are wiling to Jpay to play this game.sitive whole and advised that if they both choose ine same number, they both get a Jonze. If you wore one of these people, what number would you Jchoose? “The throws have catchy Jnames: for example, a total of 2 Two strangers who have a prvate ‘ecognition signa! agree to meet Two strangers who have a recognition signal Jeet, where should they go? trips. If they try nevertheless to Jeet, where should they go? Three prisoners, A, 8. and © Jvth apparently equally good records have applied for parole p00 records have applied for parole Jone prisoner other than himsett the warder says "B willbe released,” his own chances have Jnow gone down tot, because leitner A and & or B and Care toCoupons in cereal boxes are numbered |to 5, and a set of one ot each is required for a prize Collecting Coupons reneeer'g Co Jwith one coupon per box, now many boxes on the average ae jequred to meke @ complete set? Eight oigible bachetors and seven ‘eauiiful models happen randomly to have purchased single seats in the same 15-seat Jrow of @ theater. On the average, how many pairs of adjacent round rung in the tournament ladder. Suppose that the best {isthe chance that the second-best player wins the runner-up cup? (a) Suppose king Arthur holds a Jousting tournament where the jousts are in pairs as in a tennis, fournament. The 8 knights in the jourament are evenly matched, and they include the twin knights Twin Knighta Foam and Balan? Wihst = n= chance thatthe twins meet 2 Imatcn during the tournament? (e) Replace & by 2nin the above problem. Now what s the chance {that they meet? JWhen 100 coins are tossed. what is the probability that exactly 50 are heads? ‘An Even Split at Coin Tossing How many boxes on the average are required to make a one complete set? JEsght eugible bachelors and peauttul models best player wins the runner up cup Jousting tournament fa) What is the cnance tnat the twins meetThe Ballot Box JA. B, and C are to fght a three- that A's chance of hiting his target is 0.3, C'sis 0.5, and & never misses. They are to fre at [shot at) until only one man is left Junhit. Whet should A's strategy Joe? lotacks. An um is chosen at random, and you win a prize it lyou correctly name the urn on the lorder the second drawing, and how do you decide on the urn? In an election, two candidates, bert and Benjamin, have in a alot box a and b votes >b, for example, 3 J never misses low A to undeniably miss HTwo urns contain red and black balis, all alike except How do you order the Jsecond drawing lAtioast once after the fist ly the candidates have the JTies in Matching Pennies ‘The Unfair Subway Lengths of Random Chords Catching the Cautious Counterfeiter Catching the Groedy Counterfeiter Piayers A and 8 match pennies IN times. They keep a tally oftheir loains and losses. After the fist toss, what is the chance that at no other lives uptown, his git Iriend downtown. He takes the first subway that comes in either Jare rarely fatal. There, each Jcontestant comes at a random M. onthe appointed day and caves exactly 5 minutes later, fraction of duels had to violence? (a) The king's minter boxes his Jcoins 100 to a box. In each box he puts | false coin. The king Jsuspects the minter and from each lof 100 boxes draws a random coin nd has it tested. What is the chance the minte’s peculations go jundetected? l(b) What if both 10's are replaced by n? [The king's minter boxes his coins In toa box. Each box contains m false coins. The king suspects the Jminter and randomly draws | coin from each of n boxes and has these tested. Whats the chance nat the sample of n coins contains exactly r faise ones? chance that at no time uring the game Jil they be even? Had dinner with her twice in the last 20 working days Lengths exceeds the radius ot the orca’ [Fraction of dueis lead to (a) Minter’s peculations 90 jundetected? b) both 100's are repiaced by 0? [Chance that the sample of n coins contains exactly tatse ones?ireorne spores produce tiny mold colonies on gelatin plates in a laboratory. The many plates leverage 3 colonies per plate. [Fraction of pales has Moldy Gotetin at racton of plates has exact fexacty 3 colonies? S colonies? tthe average i @ large integer m, what fraction of fs has exactly m colonies? bread salesman sells on the ge 20 cakes on a round of is route, Wats the cence that [Chance that ne sets an ne sels an even numberof leven numberof cakes? kes? (We assume the sales fotow the Poisson distribution ) persons required the probabilty Exceeds % that two or more Birthday Pairings exceeds 172 that two or more of of them have the same nem have the same bitnaay? (vear of ith need not match) FYou want to find someone whose bithday matches yours What isthe east number of Finding Your Birthmate | srangers whose cay you need To ask about to heve 2 50-£0 Jsame birthday. What shouls inthe personal bithmate problem to make your probability of Isuccess approximately PR: has a birthday and to hire without discriminae tion on Birthday Holidays The owners want to[Player M has $1, and Player N Jhas $2. Each play gives one of the players $1 from the other Player Mis enough better than [They play unt Player N that he wins ! ofthe foankupt lays. They play untl one is Joarkrupt Whats the chance Prayer M wins? Las Vegas, aman wih $20 res 50, bth sto arrasse to wre ha wl fo frre mney. He docaes to est jin roulette (which he doesn’t Bola Play ve. Cautious Play [230 plea) and caning Joona we ment ot Laang 943, bet a atonce Hoven at st once ond tthe oes, o bet on “evens” ola sa ime un Peas onoriat $20" conooe ne frei tthe svatepes How thick should a coin be to ‘The Thick Coin Ihave a one-third chance of landing Jon edge In a laboratory, each of a handful of thin S-inch glass rods had one p marked with a bive dot and laboratory assistant tripped and Average lenth of the Icropped them onto the concrete |{recment wih the blue dot? oor, many broke into three pieces. For these, what was the Javerage length of the fragment vith the bive dot? [Shuffle an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards containing four Thal ettace Jaces. Then tum up cards from the top until the frst ace appears. On @ average, how many cards are quired 10 produce the frst ace? IFrom where he stands, one step toward the cif would send the drunken man over the edge. He takes random steps, either toward lor away from the cliff. At any step [Drunken man over the edge his probabilty of taking a step Jaway is 2/3, of a step toward the Jif 1/3, What is his chance of Jescaping the cliff?(2) A railroad numbers its locomotives in order, 1,2... N JOne day you see a locomotive and fis umber 6 60. Guess how ‘The Locomotive Problem locomotives and the largest number observed is 60. Again Jovess how many locomotives the leompany has. (a) Ia ck ie broken in two at random, what is the ove"092 jenath ofthe smaller proce? The Lite End ofthe Stick Toy (For calculus students) is the average rato of the mai length othe larger? JA bar is broken at random in two places. Find the average size of the smatlest, of the middie. sized, and of the largest pieces .game consists of @ sequence jof plays; on each play either you jor your opponent scores a point, you with probably p (less [than t), he with probability! - p. [The number of plays is to be leven-2 or 4or6 and soon. To the game you must get more nan half the points. You know p. Say 0.45, and you get a prize if lyou win. You getto choose 1" foavance the number of plays of the matching problem: ) From a shuffled deck, cards ‘of the card above and the card Average Number of Matches foelow in repetitions of this experiment? [The letters are randomly put into tne envelopes. On the average, how many lsttors are put into their (a) One day you see a Hocomotwve and its number is 60. b) 5 locomotives and mer is observed 2) Average length of the lematler pece? (b) Average ratio of smater larger length? IChoose in advance the ‘umber of plays.probably of exxetly Probehiahies of Mascies: is the probability of exactiy ‘are written on slips of ‘and mixed. A sip is drawn whether that is the largest ‘ornot. If he decides it is, ow should the wise man [Pass 37 and take the frst |candidate thereafter sli, and so on until he chooses Jone or else the slips are Jexhausted. In all, 100 attractive young ladies participate, each [As a second task, the king wants ne wise man to choose the largest number from among 100, oy the same rules, but this tme the numbers on the sis are randomly drawn from the ne king wants the wase man 0.580 for very large vaive of In Sips are ranaomly drawn wumbers from 0 to 1 old to estimate the lengths of Estimate the lengths of two Doubling Your Accuracy fiwo cyiindrical rods, one clearly —_oylindrical rods, one clearlyof arbitrary length, then fs the mean number of 8? arbitrary length um are drawn n (greater an or equal to 3) balls with replacement Find the number of drawings Jand the composition of the two Jurns so that the probablity that all white balls are drawn from the first urn is equal to the probabilty that the araveng n \s either all whites or all blacks.‘Two-Dimensional Random Walk ‘Three-Dimensional Random Walk Butfon's Needle with Horizontal and Vertical Rulings What is the uadratic ec robabilty that Jequation hes real roots Starting from an origin 0, a particle has a 50-50 chance of Jmoving | step north or | step Jsouth, and also a 50-50 chance of Jmoving | step east or I step west. |” JAfer the step is taken, the move is tne origin? Jpartcle starts at an origin O in threes space. Think of the origin J2s centered in a cube 2 units on @ Jside. One move in this walk Jcomers of the cube. Thus, at particle has a 50- chance of moving one unt up Jor cown, one unit east or west, Jand one unit north or south. ifthe Jwaik continues forever, find the table of infinite expanse has inscribed on ita set of parallel lines spaced 2a units apart. JA needie of length 2/ (smaller than 2a) is twirled and tossed on the table. What is the probability that lwhen it comes to rest it crosses a crosses tne line? |Suppose we toss a needle of length 2/ (less than |) on a grid Jwith both horizontal and vertical rulings spaced one unit apart [What is the mean number of lines Ine needle crosses? (I have [dropped the 2a for the spacing because we might as well think Jof the length of the needle as Jrveasured in units of spacing ) Mean number of ines the number crosses