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Technology Super-Themes
The glimpses of a new tech era
Ronan de Renesse
2019 Trends to Watch: Consumer Technology Super-Themes
Summary
Catalyst
2019 will be a pivotal year for consumer technology with the launch of the first 5G smartphones,
advanced computational image capture, and resulting new vision-based AI consumer applications.
The impact will be felt across the entire TMT value chain for the next decade and will fundamentally
change the way people access and interact with content. This report depicts four trends that will
shape the year to come.
Ovum view
2018 has been a year of reckoning for consumer technology. The growth and hype that surrounded
the consumer IoT in 2017 have died down and pushed the industry to refocus on core features that
consumers perceive as valuable. There couldn't be a better time for the launch of the next generation
of wireless technology: 5G. Operators will have commercially deployed 5G in at least 18 countries by
the end of 2019. With less than a handful of devices and patchy network coverage at best, 5G will not
disrupt the market for some time but 2019 will offer the first glimpses of what it can do and what use
cases most resonate with consumers. AI will continue to be at the forefront of technology
developments and investment, especially around computational imagery which will enable humans
and machines to better understand and analyze what they see.
Key messages
5G will refocus attention on smartphones. The smartphone market is in desperate need of
innovation that will drive a new replacement cycle and 5G is the perfect candidate, but this
kind of innovation only happens once in a decade.
Vision AI will be at the forefront of innovation. Vision AI will be fueled by the emergence of
five-camera smartphones, camera-enabled smart speakers, video doorbells, and indoor
home-security cameras. The ability to detect a user's distinct features will help to personalize
services and provide safeguards.
Huawei will become the largest tech firm after Samsung. Given that its smartphone
shipments overtook those of Apple in 2Q18, it is time for the Chinese tech giant to scale up its
global operations and go after Samsung. The US and smart home are areas that Huawei will
need to address in 2019.
More voice-capable homes will emerge in 2019. There is a growing trend where smart
speaker capabilities are brought to other electronic devices around the home. 2019 will also
be the year where we will see several voice devices and experiments from Amazon and
Google.
Recommendations
Recommendations for service providers and platforms
Go big on AR. AR is the perfect fit for 5G and new smartphone camera capabilities. It will
require a lot of data and computational power which will consequently drive ARPUs and
ASPs. Partner to develop and promote new AR applications that demonstrate the need for
5G, but resist being tempted by gimmicks.
Retail and promote 5G smartphones. 5G smartphones will stand out but may not sell.
Capitalize on consumers' curiosity to get them back into operator stores, then promote gigabit
LTE as an alternative, along with an iPhone XS or a Galaxy S10.
Enable a secure vision AI environment. As vision AI (i.e. image recognition) gets more
widely used, it will generate significant privacy and security concerns. Service providers and
platform owners need to address those concerns early on and should use this as a
competitive advantage.
Figure 1: Consumer IoT growth rates will slow across all categories
Vision AI will be fueled by the emergence of camera-enabled smart speakers, video doorbells, and
indoor home security cameras. The ability to detect a user's distinct features can also help to
personalize services and provide safeguards, for example recognizing a child and only providing him
or her with access to certain programs or services. An AI overlay on cameras used in smart home
security monitoring systems could expand and deepen the sophistication of services in this domain.
Honeywell and Canary in the US added facial recognition features to their smart home security
system which enables face detection notifications.
Source: Ovum and financial reports from Apple, Huawei, and Samsung
Figure 4: TV devices present the largest untapped opportunity for voice AI capabilities
One more indirect approach where voice search is monetized is the use of displays on which the
assistant is embedded. For instance, a voice search done on a smartphone will show results on the
device’s display. Google Smart Displays and Amazon Echo Show are home assistant devices which
feature a display and will be the perfect platform to start experimenting with voice-initiated display ads.
Another device which may offer some interesting opportunities for voice device ads are voice-capable
TVs, media streamers, and set-top boxes.
Appendix
Methodology
This report uses data from Ovum's Consumer Technology devices forecasts and Ovum's Digital
Consumer Insights: Smart Living 2018 survey. This survey sampled 5,000 consumers in 2Q18 across
five markets: China, France, Germany, the UK, and the US. The survey was conducted online and
respondents had to have access to at least a smartphone device in order to take part.
Further reading
Digital Consumer Insights 2018: Consumer Devices – Forthcoming
5G: Regional and Global Approaches to a Technology Step Change, GLB007-000092 (July 2018)
"The push for voice AI is gaining momentum across the TV value chain," CES004-000040 (July 2018)
"Looking at the future through the eyes of machines," CES004-000034 (June 2018)
Author
Ronan de Renesse, Practice Leader, Consumer Technology and Media & Entertainment
ronan.derenesse@ovum.com
Ovum Consulting
We hope that this analysis will help you make informed and imaginative business decisions. If you
have further requirements, Ovum’s consulting team may be able to help you. For more information
about Ovum’s consulting capabilities, please contact us directly at consulting@ovum.com.
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