Matters Arising
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0861-6
Reply to: Permafrost thaw and northern
development
B. Teufel    ✉ and L. Sushama
replying to H. B. O’Neill et al. Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0862-5 (2020)
O’Neill et al.1 argue that some of the assumptions in the land surface
scheme of the climate model we used2 are not valid. They1 also state
that no field evidence exists of the abrupt, broad-scale transitions
of soil environments above permafrost projected in our study2. In
addition, they contend that the statements concerning changes to
bearing capacity and flood risk in our Letter2 are misleading. Here
we address each of the points above, none of which preclude our
original conclusion that the effects of abrupt soil drying due to per-
mafrost thaw could pose considerable risks to northern ecosystems,
communities and infrastructure.
Before addressing the specifics, it must be noted that the results
presented in our Letter2 are based on simulations performed using a
state-of-the-art regional climate model (RCM) at 50 km horizontal
resolution. Processes relevant at these scales are parameterized, and
the results should be interpreted accordingly. To better inform cli-
mate change adaptation-related decision-making at site or local lev-
els, higher-resolution simulations with improved representation of
processes are required, as fully acknowledged in our original work2.
We reported the potential for abrupt changes to soil mois-
ture and related near-surface variables, based on RCM simula-
tions2. In our RCM simulations, the land surface is represented
using the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS)3, which is a
state-of-the-art land surface model (LSM). As we acknowledged2,
permafrost hydrology is complex, but LSMs are continually evolving
to improve their representation of relevant processes. For example,
excess ground ice and detailed groundwater processes are begin-
ning to be incorporated into LSMs4–6, but their use in large-scale
climate simulations is conditional on the emergence of global data-
sets of the parameters required by these new modules. Even in the
absence of excess ground ice, the LSM we used explicitly accounts
for soil moisture phase transitions and their effects on the timing
of permafrost degradation and changes in hydrologic conditions.
In our simulations, most permafrost within the permeable layer
in the model is saturated with ice at the beginning of the simula-
tion (that is, 36–49% volumetric ice content for mineral soils and
83–93% volumetric ice content for organic soils). In our view, the
uncertainties present in current LSMs due to simplistic represen-
tation of processes should not preclude the scientific community
from performing experiments and developing climate projections
and then using these to assess and provide information on future
risks to human activities, as done in our Letter2.
A growing body of evidence indicates that surface drying is one
of the possible consequences of permafrost thaw7–10, and this drying
has occasionally been observed to occur abruptly11, as we demon-
strated2. All climate projections should be interpreted in the con-
text of the emission scenario(s) represented12. To identify potential
hazards associated with a lack of climate action, our work focused
McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. ✉e-mail: bernardo.teufel@mail.mcgill.ca
724 Nature Climate Change | VOL 10 | August 2020 | 724–725 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange
on a high-emissions scenario: representative concentration pathway
(RCP) 8.5. So far, only a small fraction of the permafrost degradation
projected for the twenty-first century under RCP 8.5 has occurred.
Furthermore, it should be noted that the hydrologic regime of vast
areas of the permafrost region remains essentially unobserved. It is
thus reasonable to surmise that additional evidence of abrupt dry-
ing will continue to emerge in the coming decades, as permafrost
thaw accelerates.
As permafrost thaws, frozen water within the soil matrix will
be replaced by liquid water, substantially decreasing the strength
of soils in permafrost regions. This strength (that is, the bearing
capacity) would reach a minimum when the soil is saturated with
liquid water, a condition that also potentially leads to soil subsid-
ence depending on site-level conditions (thaw consolidation), chal-
lenging the integrity of infrastructure. If the liquid soil moisture
content subsequently decreases, the bearing capacity would prob-
ably increase but still be much lower than that of the original frozen
ground13. In addition, the damaging effects on infrastructure would
have already occurred during the thawing phase.
Our original statement regarding flood risk has been taken out of
context. Flooding is the result of the interaction between many vari-
ables (topography, soil moisture, snowmelt, precipitation, ice jams
and so on)14–16, and we were referring only to how flood risk/magni-
tude could be attenuated given projected decreases in soil moisture.
Seasonally frozen soils are explicitly modelled by the LSM, in which
the hydraulic conductivity of soils decreases as the fraction of frozen
water increases. However, unsaturated frozen soils are more perme-
able than saturated frozen soils10 and drier soils also thaw faster (as
latent heat is decreased), leading to increased infiltration. As we
stated2, this would lead to a reduction in flood risk/magnitude, all
other factors being equal. A full assessment of flood risk at both
local and regional scales is critical, but well beyond the scope of our
Letter2.
It is fundamental to note that drier soils could impact infrastruc-
ture through various pathways, as we demonstrated2. These include
a substantial increase in the severity of wildfires, which constitutes
one of the greatest risks to northern ecosystems, communities and
infrastructure17. Drier soils also often result in warmer near-surface
soils during summer, decreasing atmospheric stability and favour-
ing of convective precipitation, which leads to an increase in intense,
short-duration precipitation events and lightning frequency. The
former can wash out roads and overwhelm stormwater infrastruc-
ture, for instance, whereas the latter can trigger wildfires, putting
infrastructure at even greater risk.
In summary, emerging field evidence supports our projections
that permafrost thaw under a high-emissions scenario would
greatly reduce surface soil moisture in many regions. Owing to
Nature Climate Change
the heterogeneity of the surface, high-resolution simulations
with improved representation of processes are required to further
enhance understanding of complex permafrost processes and to
generate actionable information for stakeholders. The main find-
ing of our Letter2—that permafrost thaw could result in abrupt
changes to near-surface variables of essential importance to
stakeholders (e.g. wildfire)—is a concept that had received little
to no attention before. Further research to advance knowledge is
required using a wide array of state-of-the-art numerical model-
ling tools and field data, which will require input from a diverse
group of scientists and researchers from various disciplines, avoid-
ing monopolistic research, to support stakeholders’ climate change
adaptation needs.
Online content
Any methods, additional references, Nature Research report-
ing summaries, source data, extended data, supplementary infor-
mation, acknowledgements, peer review information; details of
author contributions and competing interests; and statements of
data and code availability are available at https://doi.org/10.1038/
s41558-020-0861-6.
Received: 16 March 2020; Accepted: 26 June 2020;
Published online: 29 July 2020
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Author contributions Additional information

Both authors contributed to drafting, reviewing and finalizing the Reply. Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to B.T.
Peer review information Nature Climate Change thanks Jan Hjort and the other,
Competing interests anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
The authors declare no competing interests. Reprints and permissions information is available at www.nature.com/reprints.

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