jighlights of the 2010 Census-Based Population Projections By 2045, the Philippine population is projected to increase from its 2010 Census Count of 93 million to 142 million. This increase is expected even with the projected slowing down in average annual population growth rate, from 1.73 percent during 2010-2015 to 0.65 percent during 2040-2045. The CALABARZON region remains the largest in terms of population size even until 2045 (20.1 million), followed by the NCR and Central Luzon with 14.5 million each. Western Visayas and Central Visayas come next with 10.4 million each. The CAR region will continue to report the smallest population with 2.6 million by year 2045. Cebu with the most numbers in 2045 The population projections for the 80 provinces and two special areas, Cotabato City (located in Maguindanao but is under SOCKSARGEN) and Isabela City (located in Basilan but is under Zamboanga Peninsula), indicate that by 2045, the metropolis of Cebu which includes the cities of Cebu, Lapu-Lapu and Mandaue, will have the largest number of persons with almost 6.0 million, followed by Cavite with 5.2 million, Bulacan (4.5 million), Rizal (4.4 million), Laguna and Negros Occidental (4.3 million each) and Pangasinan (4.0 million). Other provinces that are projected to contain more than two million persons by 2045 are listed in Table 1 The base year (2010) population and the projected 2020 counts for these provinces are also shown in the Table ble 1. Posner wt more han tw milan population by 2085, ane = Poouatn intone) — |g own Pooulton nna) “ mo zoo 200 aans_ | me zo 2002065, 1 Goo aus 41 500/13 Lene 180821 2 covte ame aan 528] m4 ueron aon 23m ast 3 bulacan 296 ask 4528) 15. zamboargadel sie x 2428s © Rial as ase 49] 16 eatin amo 22856 5 agua aees 3267412] 17 Sathomaato sam ass7 aa © Negros ocidentl ao 330845) 18 Bohol tas ast? 2a 5 Deooviental ams 2a 3907| 20 Laraodelsur 9361217106 9 atangas 24072796 3.369 21. Maris Oem 1a 072.050 10. cComarnes Su et 2248 3.202 22 Neos vinta 1s asa 20m 11 Pampanga ao ayo. 3.aa| 23 ay tae amr 2.001 2_toio 22se__ ass 3.058 _— ‘ace Phippine Sas Aso, 50 Cana asad epson Prcns in aber ih nr Agency Waring Goin 0 Papen PraseoreThe provinces of Batanes and Camiguin with projected population of 27,600 and 128,300 by 2045, respectively, (not shown in the Table) will still have the least number of people over the projection period 2010-2045, Slower provincial population growth in the long term According to the 2010 Census-Based Population Projections, the population in all the provinces and two special areas of the country would continue to grow throughout the projection period 2010-2045. However, the projected growths would be slowing down in accordance with the assumption of a declining fertility trend Based on the projections, the provinces that are likely to post the highest population growth rates (PGRs) in 2010-2016 are Quezon, Basilan, Batangas, Rizal and Lanao del Sur. For 2040-2045, the following provinces are expected to have the highest PGRs: Biliran, Aurora, Siquijor, Quezon and Basilan (See Table 2) Table 2. Provinces with highest average population growth ates by selected projection period: Philipines Rank | Province 2010-2015 | Province 2015-2020 | Province 2040-2085 1 ‘Quezon 330 | Quezon 305. | Biiran FET) 2 Baslan 2.76 | Basilan 277 | Aurora 224 a Batangas 2.75 | tanaodelsur 266 | sigujer 2.08 4 Rizal 271 | Batangas 254 | auezon 201 5 Lanao del sur 2.665 | Agusan del sur 253. | Basin 1.95 6 Tawi-Tawi 256 | Biliran 251 | tanao del sur Lat 7 cavte 255 | Rizal 250 | Rizal uw 8 Laguna 258 | Tawi-Tow! 246 | Batangas 175 ° ‘Agusan del Sur 253 | Suu 240 | Tawi-Tawi 1n wo | suu 251 | Maguindanao 2.39 | Agusan del Sur 1m 11 | Maguindanao 248 | cave 236 | Laguna 1.69 12 | Palawan 229 | Laguna 235 | Cavite 1.65 13° | Biliran 223° | aurora 231 | Catanduanes 163 16 | occ Mindoro 2.22 | Northern Samar 2.16 | Antique 4s7 15 | Aurora 2.20 | catandvanes 215 | CamarinesNorte 1.40 16 | auiino 217 | Palawan zai | su 132 17 | Cotabatoary 2.a1 | Sorsogon 2.09 | NerthernSamar 1.31, 18 | ormindoro 211 | CamarinesNorte 2.04 | AgusandelNorte 1.30, 19 | davaosur 210 | ifugao 203 | Dinagat islands 1.29, 20 | southcotabata 2.09 | Sigur _ 2.02 | Sorsogon 127 ‘Source Philippine Statistics Autnony, 200 Census-Based Population Prjactans in ealaberation withthe interagency Werking Grp on Populsion PrgectonsProjected population age structure and the demographic dividend In general, the projected population by broad age groups for the period 2010 to 2040 will rise, except for age group 0-14 years which is projected to gradually decline to 30 million by 2045 after peaking to 34 million during 2025-2030. The working age population, 15-64 years, will ikely grow from 64 million in 2010-2015 to 96 million by 2040-2045. Those aged 65 years and older may quadruple in size from 4 million in 2010-2015 to16 million by 2040-2045. The female population aged 15 to 49 years will most likely increase steadily from 24 to 35 million throughout the projection period. Figure 1. Population (in millions) by selected age group by five-calendar years, Philippines: 2010-2045 0-14 15-64 2 % = oe 2 ae Moy «e 6 2010 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20102015 7020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 65 and over Female 15-49 16 oy BS “ o 2 a 10 6 2o19 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 «20102015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20402045 ‘Source: Pilppine Statistics Authority, 2010 Census bosed Population Projections in colabortion with the Inter Ageney Working Group on Philippine Projecvons The age structure of the population of the country from 2010 through 2045 (Refer to Figure 2) presents an opportunity of economic-demographic advantage. A bulge appears in the working age population, 15-64 years old, for the entire 3projection period matched by a projected narrowing proportion of young dependents under age 15 years, from 34 percent to 21 percent between 2010 and 2045. A smaller number of children per household generally leads to larger investments per child, more freedom for women to enter the formal workforce and more household savings for a secure old age (UNFPA)' Figure 2. Percentage distribution of projected population of broad age groups by five-calendar year interval, Philippines: 2010-2045 Pop 0-14 Pop 15-64 Pop 65 and over 2010 34 «2 4 2015 2 63 5 2020 30 sa 6 2025 28 65 7 2030 2 6s 2 2035 2s 66 9 2040 2 ° 10 2085 n 87 n Note:The percenioges of eoch grup in ech or oy not od vpt 30 eto rounding Source. Phigaine states Autor, 2010 Censvs bore Populoion Projections in cllebration withthe ter-Ageney Working Group ‘on Phippine Projections The proportion of people age 65 and older, on the other hand, while projected to increase continuously, is no match for the burgeoning working age population, 15- 64 years of age. As a result of this changing age structure, the country’s overall dependency ratio is projected to decrease by 13 percentage points, from 61 percent in 2010 to 48 percent in 2045 (Refer to Figure 3). The above conditions when coupled with benefits of good health, quality education and decent employment are likely to lead to a demographic dividend (UNFPA)! *petvieved from http.//www.unfpa.org/demographic-dividend#sthash.itnOWEsu.dpufFigure 3. Dependency Ratio, Philippines: 2010-2045 ” 61 60 54 on 48 40 31 30 20 7 10 Ly 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2085, Old age dependency ratio Youth dependency ratio Total dependency ratio. Notes: oft age dependency ratio= (Population aged 65 and over/Population age 15 64)°100 Youth dependency rti = (Population under 15/Popultian age 15 to 64)*100 Tote dependency = (Population aged 6S and over» Population under 15V/Popuiatonoge 15 to G3)*100 Source Philippine tosis Authority, 2010 Census based Population Pajecuons i calaboration with he Inter Agency Working Group on Phiipnine Projections FOR THE NATIONAL STATISTICIAN: We ROMEO S, RECIDE (Deputy National Statistician, SSO) Officer-in-ChargeTechnical Notes The 2010 Census-based provincial population projections utilized the cohort- component method, the same method used for the national and regional population projections. The cohort-component method takes into account the changes taking place among the three demographic processes namely: fertility, mortality and migration. The methodology involves separately projecting the fertility rates by age of women, 15-49 years, and the survival ratios and net migration rates (both internal and international) by five-year age groups, for each sex. Fertility The fertility inputs used for the 2010 Census-based projections are the age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and total fertility rates (TFRs) of women 15-49 years old for the base year, 2010, and the projected ASFRs and TFRs for the five-year periods, 2010- 2015 to 2040-2045. The baseline TFRs by province were estimated using either the Palmore, Rele or P/F ratio methods. To ensure that the projected provincial TFRs are consistent with the projected regional TFRs, the degree of relationship between a provincial TFR and the regional TFR as of the base year, 2010, was maintained to the end-year 2045 of the projection period, under the medium assumption series. Mortality The provincial population projections require the age-sex-specific death rates (ASDRs) by province, based on the registered deaths from the Vital Registration System for years 2008-2010, and the life table estimates of age-sex-specific survival ratios during the base year and the projection period, also by province. Life tables were constructed to derive the baseline age-specific survival ratios separately for males and females, The data on registered deaths for males and females by age, adjusted for incompleteness of registration, were used to compute the baseline life tables. The age-sex-specific survival ratios for the projection period were taken from the life tables for the five-year projection periods, 2010-2015 to 2040-2045. These life tables were constructed by extrapolating the baseline ASDRs based on the General Pattern for males and the Latin American Pattern for females of the UN Model Life Tables and the projected under-five mortality rates for males and females by province. Migration Two types of migration inputs were applied to generate the provincial population projections — inter-regional migration and international migration. The baseline and projected age-sex-specific inter-provincial migration rates were based on the 2010 Census data on residence 5 years ago. For international migration, the baseline and projected age-sex-specific net number of international migrants were based also on the 2010 Census data on residence 5 years ago, and the data on registered emigrants from the Commission on Filipinos Overseas