Simulation

Base Case Simulation:

 Forecast: Value Per Share (Base)
Statistic Forecast values
Trials 1,000
Base Case 16.19
Mean 16.22
Median 15.41
Mode '---
Standard Deviation 14.03
Variance 196.98
Skewness 0.406
Kurtosis 4.75
Coeff. of Variation 0.4653
Minimum -38.29
Maximum 97.14
Mean Std. Error 0.44

IPO:
 Forecast: Value Per Share(IPO)
Statistic Forecast values
Trials 1,000
Base Case 15.67
Mean 16.5
Median 15.42
Mode '---
Standard Deviation 11.32
Variance 128.07
Skewness 1.24
Kurtosis 13.25
Coeff. of Variation 0.486
Minimum -20.7
Maximum 130.73
Mean Std. Error 0.36
Debt:
 Forecast: Value Per Share(debt)
Statistic Forecast values
Trials 1,000
Base Case 8.25
Mean 8.37
Median 7.87
Mode '---
Standard Deviation 8.72
Variance 75.96
Skewness 0.3284
Kurtosis 3.38
Coeff. of Variation 0.42
Minimum -17.72
Maximum 45.26
Mean Std. Error 0.28

Equity:
 Forecast: Value Per Share(Equity)
Statistic Forecast values
Trials 1,000
Base Case 15.35
Mean 15.76
Median 15.15
Mode '---
Standard Deviation 11.28
Variance 127.21
Skewness 0.1786
Kurtosis 7.03
Coeff. of Variation 0.4158
Minimum -67.67
Maximum 67.79
Mean Std. Error 0.36
Post IPO:

Forecast: Value Per Share(Post IPO)

Statistic Forecast values
Trials 1,000
Base Case 14.52
Mean 15.66
Median 14.7
Mode '---
Standard Deviation 11.7
Variance 136.84
Skewness 2.94
Kurtosis 34.04
Coeff. of Variation 0.4468
Minimum -23.2
Maximum 168.61
Mean Std. Error 0.37

Graph for Ratio

Liquidity ratio
1.2000

1.0000
0.9580
0.8000

0.6000

0.4937
0.4000

0.2000

0.0000
2003 2004
 Profi tability
4.5
4 4.09
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5 1.67
1
0.5
0
2003 2004

Solvency

Equity Multiplier

Debt to Equity Ratio

Debt Ratio

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2003 2004
 ROE
4.5
4.09
4
3.5
3
2.5
2 1.67
1.5
1
0.5
0
2003 2004

DOL
30

20

10

0
2001 2002 2003 2004

-10

-20

-30
 DFL
2
1.17 1.42 1.36
1 1.09
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-6.71
-7
-8