CURRENCY1 USD CURRENCY2 COP STARTDATE 01/01/1967 ENDDATE 31/12/2020

YEAR PROMEDIO MIN MAX NB

1967 14.5063917 14.5063917 14.5063917 260
1968 16.2906667 16.2906667 16.2906667 262
1969 17.3201417 17.3201417 17.3201417 261
1970 18.4431 18.4431 18.4431 261
1971 19.9319333 19.9319333 19.9319333 261
1972 21.8656417 21.8656417 21.8656417 260
1973 23.6369833 23.6369833 23.6369833 261
1974 26.064125 26.064125 26.064125 261
1975 30.9289417 30.9289417 30.9289417 261
1976 34.693925 34.693925 34.693925 262
1977 36.7748667 36.7748667 36.7748667 260
1978 39.0946417 39.0946417 39.0946417 260
1979 42.549775 42.549775 42.549775 51
1980 48.93440691 46.80373853 53.59070959 262
1981 64.22670003 53.73280681 73.02181596 261
1982 70.9992553 63.45787167 76.65731482 261
1983 85.89663816 77.56515014 93.71621901 260
1984 106.3075649 95.05629786 118.2024766 261
1985 133.0667644 113.3796727 157.3794872 261
1986 175.5251344 160.9948095 195.277125 261
1987 225.0459477 199.0575722 242.6075 261
1988 329.7557349 298.9370723 358.400899 261
1989 405.32691 370.1283384 439.3092041 260
1990 473.0141298 430.4036697 506.9114801 261
1991 698.6725977 612.8737835 770.4184713 261
1992 786.7703752 698.1957911 843.4349059 262
1993 892.7226548 839.8372094 938.9549473 261
1994 794.0986142 733.8680111 854.1145008 260
1995 858.8445876 827.2583963 918.8397642 260
1996 1073.33617 1034.042772 1100.964644 262
1997 1261.615914 1136.157131 1362.576398 261
1998 1406.629945 1299.104712 1471.520654 261
1999 1925.060959 1737.983327 2046.013322 261
2000 2176.980364 2019.164612 2363.38952 255
2001 2315.555466 2211.647429 2512.750477 255
2002 2501.541051 2193.248029 2903.96543 255
2003 2878.381299 2715.694991 3079.87701 255
2004 2633.219998 2306.743146 2836.278867 259
2005 2320.902468 2271.24238 2404.944866 257
2006 2359.379949 2226.787028 2635.531904 255
2007 2074.250089 1875.056472 2262.792862 255
2008 1967.903978 1654.818332 2388.425649 256
2009 2151.654336 1825.421159 2603.446348 256
2010 1898.545157 1786.669623 2038.359712 258
2011 1848.19455 1746.42697 1986.197321 257
2012 1797.816467 1754.371693 1935.516794 256
2013 1870.33035 1760.499073 1955.401064 255
2014 1999.908512 1839.51843 2459.645874 255
2015 2747.822973 2356.717435 3357.571949 256
2016 3051.418284 2854.396579 3453.826471 257
2017 2950.864257 2842.60902 3093.344303 255
2018 2956.230881 2772.820858 3286.471793 255
2019 3283.338572 3064.778234 3533.857909 255
 PROMEIDO EN Suavizacion 3 Suavizacion Suavizacion
Año
PESOS $ Peridos 5 Peridos 7 Peridos
1967 14.5
1968 16.3 15.91
1969 17.3 17.37 17.30
1970 18.4 18.63 18.77 18.86
1971 19.9 20.15 20.24 20.51
1972 21.9 21.78 21.99 22.60
1973 23.6 23.96 24.49 25.08
1974 26.1 27.28 27.44 27.70
1975 30.9 30.38 30.42 30.44
1976 34.7 33.85 33.51 33.39
1977 36.8 36.89 36.81 37.01
1978 39.1 39.66 40.41 42.46
1979 42.5 44.01 46.32 48.18
1980 48.9 53.39 53.16 55.50
1981 64.2 59.97 62.52 65.43
1982 71.0 75.06 75.27 78.85
1983 85.9 88.65 92.10 97.85
1984 106.3 109.48 114.36 123.01
1985 133.1 140.92 145.17 160.94
1986 175.5 179.06 193.94 208.70
1987 225.0 252.64 253.74 264.01
1988 329.8 315.19 321.73 348.63
1989 405.3 401.38 426.36 442.02
1990 473.0 552.00 538.71 544.47
1991 698.7 629.89 651.30 625.77
1992 786.8 795.70 729.06 701.35
1993 892.7 790.43 806.22 796.78
1994 794.1 875.78 881.15 909.44
1995 858.8 933.72 976.12 1,010.57
1996 1073.3 1,060.23 1,078.91 1,173.19
1997 1261.6 1,239.98 1,305.10 1,356.65
1998 1406.6 1,593.34 1,568.72 1,574.00
1999 1925.1 1,791.81 1,817.17 1,808.67
2000 2177.0 2,120.31 2,065.15 2,066.54
2001 2315.6 2,339.26 2,359.50 2,262.48
2002 2501.5 2,596.97 2,501.14 2,393.09
2003 2878.4 2,567.38 2,529.92 2,455.14
2004 2633.2 2,599.64 2,538.68 2,440.46
2005 2320.9 2,496.30 2,453.23 2,390.80
2006 2359.4 2,197.58 2,271.13 2,340.81
2007 2074.3 2,163.64 2,174.82 2,200.84
2008 1967.9 2,112.95 2,090.35 2,088.69
2009 2151.7 1,933.22 1,988.11 2,013.96
2010 1898.5 1,999.92 1,932.82 1,944.10
2011 1848.2 1,848.18 1,913.31 1,933.48
2012 1797.8 1,859.26 1,882.96 2,044.90
2013 1870.3 1,898.86 2,052.81 2,173.43
2014 1999.9 2,309.08 2,293.46
2015 2747.8 2,525.66
2016 3051.4
2950.9
2956.2
3283.3
 HISTORICO CAMBIO DE DIVISA DOLAR A PESOS COLOMBIANOS
PROMEIDO EN PESOS $ Suavizacion 3 Peridos Suavizacion 5 Peridos Suavizacion 7 Peridos

3500.0

3000.0

2500.0

2000.0

1500.0

1000.0

500.0

0.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
 𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑑𝑒 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑜=∑▒ 〖𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑛 ó𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑜 〗 / Eventos
𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑣 𝐴𝑏𝑠𝑜 𝑀𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎=(∑▒|𝑅𝑒𝑎𝑙−𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑛ó𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑜| )/𝑛

𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝐶𝑢𝑎𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑜 𝑀𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑜=(∑▒ 〖𝐸𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑛 ó𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑜 〗 ^2 )/𝑛

𝑜𝑟 𝑃𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑏𝑠 𝑀𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑜=((∑_(𝑖=1)^𝑛▒100| 〖𝑅𝑒𝑎𝑙〗 _𝑖− 〖𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑛 ó𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑜 〗 _𝑖 | )/ 〖𝑅𝑒𝑎𝑙〗 _𝑖 )/𝑛

92 158 61,004
PROMEDIO
Pronostico Media desviación Error cuadrático
Año PESOS Error Pronostico
Móvil de 3 Periodos Absoluta Media medio
COLOMBIANOS $
1 14.506
2 16.291
3 17.320 15 2 1.92 4
4 18.443 17 2 1.64 3
5 19.932 18 2 2.05 4
6 21.866 19 3 2.68 7
7 23.637 21 3 2.74 7
8 26.064 23 3 3.31 11
9 30.929 25 6 6.08 37
10 34.694 28 6 6.20 38
11 36.775 33 4 3.96 16
12 39.095 36 3 3.36 11
13 42.550 38 5 4.62 21
14 48.934 41 8 8.11 66
15 64.227 46 18 18.48 342
16 70.999 57 14 14.42 208
17 85.897 68 18 18.28 334
18 106.308 78 28 27.86 776
19 133.067 96 37 36.96 1,366
20 175.525 120 56 55.84 3,118
21 225.046 154 71 70.75 5,006
22 329.756 200 129 129.47 16,763
23 405.327 277 128 127.93 16,365
24 473.014 368 105 105.47 11,125
25 698.673 439 260 259.50 67,341
26 786.770 586 201 200.93 40,372
27 892.723 743 150 150.00 22,500
28 794.099 840 - 46 45.65 2,084
29 858.845 843 15 15.43 238
30 1073.336 826 247 246.86 60,942
31 1261.616 966 296 295.53 87,335
32 1406.630 1,167 239 239.15 57,195
33 1925.061 1,334 591 590.94 349,208
34 2176.980 1,666 511 511.13 261,259
35 2315.555 2,051 265 264.53 69,979
36 2501.541 2,246 255 255.27 65,164
37 2878.381 2,409 470 469.83 220,743
38 2633.220 2,690 - 57 56.74 3,220
39 2320.902 2,756 - 435 434.90 189,136
40 2359.380 2,477 - 118 117.68 13,849
41 2074.250 2,340 - 266 265.89 70,698
42 1967.904 2,217 - 249 248.91 61,957
43 2151.654 2,021 131 130.58 17,050
44 1898.545 2,060 - 161 161.23 25,996
45 1848.195 2,025 - 177 176.91 31,295
46 1797.816 1,873 - 76 75.55 5,708
47 1870.330 1,823 47 47.32 2,240
48 1999.909 1,834 166 165.84 27,501
49 2747.823 1,935 813 812.70 660,487
50 3051.418 2,374 678 677.55 459,077
2,900
3,051

max 2,941 835

2,859 520
 21.9%
Error Porcentual
absoluto medio

12%
10%
11%
14%
13%
15%
24%
22%
12%
9%
12%
20%
40%
25%
27%
36%
38%
47%
46%
65%
46%
29%
59%
34%
20%
5%
2%
30%
31%
20%
44%
31%
13%
11%
20%
2%
16%
5%
11%
11%
6%
8%
9%
4%
3%
9%
42%
29%
VARIABLES IRREGULARES
TENDENCIAS

FALTA COMPLETAR ESTO DEFINIR SI SON VARIABLES ESTACIONARIAS , CON TENDENCIA

TACIONARIAS , CON TENDENCIA O IRREGULARES