July 2020

25th ANNIVERSARY ISSUE

WHAT’S
NEXT
As the automotive industry seeks answers
on how to recover from its biggest ever
crisis, electrification could come to
the rescue and usher in a defining era
for alternative-energy transportation

25 YEARS OF EVS ULTRACAPACITORS CONVERSION THERAPY

Leading figures share their thoughts Could this breakthrough technology be Transforming classic cars to run on
on how the electric vehicle landscape set to replace batteries and unlock new modern electric power is becoming
has evolved and what the future holds performance potential for EVs? big business. We find out how it’s done
 COVID RECOVERY PLAN

48 // July 2020 // www.electrichybridvehicletechnology.com

 COVID RECOVERY PLAN

linings
The sudden onset of Covid-19 has caused
unprecedented disruption to the automotive
industry, but could electrification be the key to
economic recovery as we strive for a ‘new normal’?
WORDS: ALEX GRANT

© aanbetta, zaie - stock.adobe.com

www.electrichybridvehicletechnology.com // July 2020 // 49

 COVID RECOVERY PLAN
N
obody knew it at the time, but
2020’s biggest news story broke on
January 7. This was day one of the
Consumer Electronics Show, and
the automotive press was focused
on high-profi le electric newcomers including
the Mustang Mach-E, Fisker Ocean and the
Sony Vision S concept. But the looming
disruption didn’t begin with a glitzy reveal in
Las Vegas, it emerged as a tiny blip in column
inches from 11,000km away.
As CES opened its doors, scientists in China
had identified a novel coronavirus as the cause
of a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan. The
lack of media attention seems unimaginable in
hindsight; within weeks, that handful of cases
We cannot had become a global pandemic, shuttering
large areas of China, Europe and North
re-launch the America as governments restricted travel to
suppress escalating infections. Business as
economy by investing usual evaporated overnight.
The fallout was unprecedented;
in old technology” crashing oil prices, fractured
supply chains and, according
Saul Lopez, manager of e-mobility, T&E
to the McKinsey Global
Institute, production
halting at more than 90%
of automotive factories in
the worst-affected regions
1. On the opening day of
CES in Vegas, Sony as the crisis peaked. A
unveiled its Vision S, ‘new normal’ is years away,
blissfully unaware of but electrification could
novel coronavirus
identified that same day prove to be an unusually
in Wuhan, China resilient industry trend.
50 // July 2020 // www.electrichybridvehicletechnology.com
Sign of the times
Momentum was already underway; LMC
Automotive analysis shows global passenger
vehicle sales between January and April
contracted from 26.3m units in 2019 to 18.5m
units this year (-29%). Earlier lockdowns in
China affected EV demand, but it remained
ahead of the market, falling from 465,000 to
380,000 units (-19%) during the same period.
Europe is driving that growth. Research
from Transport & Environment (T&E) showed
it became the epicenter for electric vehicle
R&D in 2019 as carmakers face the EU’s
95g/km average CO2 targets in 2020/21.
Investments totaled €60bn (US$67.4bn) in
2019, compared to €17.1bn (US$19.2bn) in
China, and €3.2bn (US$3.6bn) a year previously.
As a sign of the times, production of the
Volkswagen ID.3 electric hatchback re-started
four days ahead of the internal combustion
Golf – Europe’s best-selling car.
Saul Lopez, manager, e-mobility, at
T&E, says it’s vital to continue that trend:
“We cannot re-launch the economy by
investing in old technology. We need to
prioritize the transition to clean, 21st-century
technology that will create jobs and bring an
industrial opportunity and shift away from
obsolete models and soon-to-be-stranded
assets,” he comments.
OEM viewpoints differ. With short-term
disruption to development, homologation
and production, trade body ACEA called on
the EU to extend deadlines and avoid non-
 COVID RECOVERY PLAN

compliance fines while they recover. But 2. BMW lines up its

electric range
outliers were notable, with Volkswagen
Group, Daimler and BMW Group all claiming
advanced electrification would enable them
to meet their targets.
“Postponing the [CO2] targets and deadlines
would reward those who didn’t make adequate
preparations,” stated Oliver Zipse, chairman of
BMW’s board of management, during the
company’s quarterly conference call in May.
“We are open to the idea of moratoria on
‘additional burdens’ [and] this could certainly
include discussions about deadlines for
the introduction of new and pending
regulations, such as the Euro 7 standard.”
Lopez agrees, pointing out that
CO2 targets are based on average
emissions rather than sales volumes.
T&E analysis shows EVs only need to
account for around 5% of passenger sales
to comply and, even before significant new MADE IN FRANCE
products such as the Volkswagen ID.3,
first-quarter sales share in Europe had more State aid for the automotive
than doubled year on year, to 6.8%. industry looks likely to focus on new
However, Al Bedwell, director, global technologies, and the French president
powertrain at LMC Automotive, believes Emmanuel Macron’s €8bn (US$9bn)
support package offers an early sign of
support measures will need to be broader:
what might follow elsewhere.
“I would assume that European policymakers Buyers in France will get purchase
will want some kind of green angle. If that’s incentives of €7,000 (US$7,860)
for an electric car and €2,000
(US$2,250) for a plug-in hybrid, with
investment earmarked for 100,000
Postponing the [CO2] targets charging points. However, OEMs will
be required to concentrate vehicle and
and deadlines would reward electrification component production in
France, assisted by grants for domestic
those who didn’t make research and industrialization. The
aim, by 2025, is to become the first
adequate preparations country building more than a million
electrified vehicles per year.
Oliver Zipse, chairman, BMW board of management
PSA Group welcomed the support,
confirming ongoing localization of
its electric and hybrid components
from Asia to France as a result of
€400m (US$449m) investment
in facilities. Faurecia is to boost
investment in domestic development of
hydrogen fuel cell systems, including
working with Michelin on a stack, while
Valeo says it will locate production
of 48-volt hybrid components within
its home market while also increasing
R&D in France.
Ordish expects localization to
become a trend as the sector recovers:
“The stimulus for localization will
come from government subsidies. In
essence, the bargaining chip every
national government around the world
will be seeking when it discusses the
provision of subsidies to car makers is
not just retaining jobs in the domestic
economy, but the creation of new
employment to mop up the loss of jobs
following the crisis,” he says.
2

www.electrichybridvehicletechnology.com // July 2020 // 51


3
done in a clever way then
it’s going to be cost-neutral
or even beneficial to
governments [because] there
won’t be as many lost jobs
they have to support – this
is what we saw in 2009-10,”
he explains.
“But there isn’t the capacity out there
to build enough [EVs] to get the industry as
a whole back on its feet, so it’s going to have to
include vehicles which are not battery electric.
I assume it will be targeted at smaller and
electrified vehicles.”
Renewed focus
Recovery during a predicted recession will
require careful prioritization. There are
already signs of rationalization.
Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi is moving
towards a ‘leader-follower’ model
for technology development, and
has hinted at sharing upper bodies
as well as platforms to reduce
development costs by 40%.
Simon Ordish, director at
industrial digitalization specialist
Majenta Solutions, is predicting up
to 40% of variants and trims could be
axed as OEMs focus on profitability.
“I think the beneath-the-skin sub-assemblies
for any given model will reduce and
consolidate, but by and large the consumer
won’t notice this. However, the parts bin
will definitely reduce, and this may be more
visible to the customer.
“Set against this is a move towards more
customization and personalization in
manufacturing. The customer will get less
choice, [but] the choice they are
presented with will perhaps
offer some degree of
customization.”
However,
electrification
COVID RECOVERY PLAN
3. GM’s battery plaform
4. Engineers at work on
GM’s electric Pontiac
5. Renault’s hybrid range
could prove more resilient other
technologies, as there’s already a
market need. GM says development has
continued at a “rapid pace” during the
pandemic, with electric Cadillac and
4 Hummer EVs still due in 2022 on a platform set
to be shared with Honda. Ford, meanwhile,
will continue collaborating with Rivian, but
has abandoned plans announced in January to
co-develop an electric Lincoln.
Dave OudeNijeweme, head of technology
trends at the UK’s Advanced Propulsion
Centre, believes collaboration on expensive
technologies will prove invaluable. “[There’s
been] a trend in the last few years in where
“We can’t build enough [EVs]
to get the industry as a
whole back on its feet, so
we have to include [ICE]”
Al Bedwell, director of global powertrain, LMC Automotive
6. The Rivian EV platform we’ve seen partnering of OEMs with certain
being developed in products. With the whole industry finding it
collaboration with GM
difficult in an economic downturn, some quite
hard head-scratching needs to be done in
terms of what businesses can support and
bring to market, and elements that they might
find more difficult. So a spike in
partnering agreements
seems possible based on
6 that,” he says, adding that
this also offers an
opportunity to
restructure.
“With electrification,
and certainly with batteries,
www.electrichybridvehicletechnology.com // July 2020 // 53
 COVID RECOVERY PLAN
8 but now they are working remotely, and the
“With batteries, security of
supply is already top of
people’s minds and [the
pandemic] may reinforce that”
Dave OudeNijeweme, head of technology trends,
Advanced Propulsion Centre, UK
I think security of supply is already top of
people’s minds and [the pandemic] might
reinforce that. That could well mean that [cars
are] built with that security of supply, from
natural disasters to [pandemics], but also for
the supply of key materials locally and [there
are] good commercial reasons why you would.”
One way forward
Not all changes will be visible. Ricardo
undertook its first virtual certification process
in March, observed remotely by a European
agency, and it believes this capability will
remain desirable even after lockdowns are
over. With clients adapting to large-scale
remote working, Majenta Solutions claims
a 300% increase in the use of its Enerjyhub
supply chain integration tool and 120% uplift
in data transfers on its MX+ engineering
platform between February and May, and
Ordish foresees this continuing.
“Work from home has been validated,
therefore complete and fundamental supply
chain digitization has become a mission-
critical aspect of this switch,” he explains. “We
54 // July 2020 // www.electrichybridvehicletechnology.com
are [also] seeing changes to the way CAD
vendors license their products. Previously
engineers sat with large workstations under
their desk running a licensed CAD package,
cloud has the capacity to run these
computationally-demanding solutions from
a distance, so the CAD companies are
changing their licensing model to
adapt to this.”
But the longer-term disruption
to ‘business as usual’ might stem
from consumer pull rather than
industry push. Rapid reductions in
travel caused an almost overnight
improvement in Europe’s air
quality; a 40% reduction in nitrogen
dioxide and 10% in particulate matter
in April, according to the Centre for
Research on Energy and Clean Air. Lopez is
7. VW’s fl agship EV the optimistic about the resulting shift in
ID.3 restarted production consumer awareness as a lever for change.
following Covid-19
lockdowns ahead of the “People have realized what it is to live in
bestselling IC Golf cities that are not invaded by toxic fumes –
they realize we were overdoing it with exhaust
8. The ID.3 has
a maximum range pipes that pollute the are air we breathe and for
of 340 miles our health,” he says. “The main message [for
OEMs] is do not go back to internal
9. Volkswagen shares its
MEB platform with Ford combustion engine production. It doesn’t make
economic sense, it doesn’t make legal sense, so
there’s only one way forward.”
9