Forecasting techniques for estimating future human needs and shortcomings of these techniques:

Human Resource is undoubtedly an important part of any organization. Hence, every organization must
have the right number of the workforce at the right place and that too at the right time. In order to
efficiently plan the workforce, the proper needs of human resource are very necessary. Human resource
(HR) demand forecasting is the process of estimating the future quantity and quality of people required.
HR Forecasting techniques vary from simple to sophisticated ones. Before describing each technique, it
may be stated that organizations generally follow more than one technique. The techniques are:

1. Expert forecasts

2. Trend projection forecasts

3. Other forecasting methods

1. Expert forecasts

This technique is very simple. In this managers sit together, discuses and arrive at a figure which would
be the future demand for labor. The technique may involve a “bottom-up” or a “top-down” approach. In
the first, line managers submit their department proposals to top managers who arrive at the company
forecasts. These forecasts are reviewed with departmental heads and agreed upon. Neither of these
approaches is accurate- a combination of the two could yield positive results. In the “bottom-up” and
“top-down” approaches, departmental managers can prepare forecasts for their respective
departments. Simultaneously, top HR managers prepare company forecasts. A committee comprising
departmental mangers and HR managers will review the two sets of forecasts. In large organizations,
the simplest method to learn about managers’ need is to survey those managers who are the ultimate
expert’s in the future staffing needs of their departments.

Survey techniques may be Informal & instant decisions (casual estimates, informal pool), Formal expert
survey (a written questionnaire), Nominal group technique or Delphi technique. Two important
techniques of expert forecasts are:

Nominal group technique- Nominal group technique (NGT) is defined as a structured method for group
brainstorming that encourages contributions from everyone and facilitates quick agreement on the
relative importance of issues, problems, or solutions.