t Dt Ft(PF) E(PF) DAM(PF) ECM(PF) EPAM(PF) SR(PF)

1 112 IEI E*E iei/Dt

2 115 112 3 3 9 2.61%
3 120 115 5 5 25 4.17%
4 130 120 10 10 100 7.69%
5 145 130 15 15 225 10.34%
6 140 145 -5 5 25 3.57%
7 155 140 15 15 225 9.68%
8 162 155 7 7 49 4.32%
9 164 162 2 2 4 1.22%
10 164
n 8
PROMEDIOS 7.75 82.75 5.450% 6.7096774

SR SEÑAL DE RASTREO

0
t Dt Ft(PM(1)) Ft(PM(2)) Ft(PM(3)) Ft(PM(4)) Ft(PM(5)) Ft(PM(6)) Ft(PM(7)) Ft(PM(8))
1 112
2 115 112
3 120 115 113.5
4 130 120 117.5 115.66667
5 145 130 125 121.66667 119.25
6 140 145 137.5 131.66667 127.5 124.4
7 155 140 142.5 138.33333 133.75 130 127
8 162 155 147.5 146.66667 142.5 138 134.16667 131
9 164 162 158.5 152.33333 150.5 146.4 142 138.142857 134.875
10 164 163 160.33333 155.25 153.2 149.33333 145.142857 141.375
n 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
DAM 10.57
ECM 143.07
EPAM 7.28%
SR 7
DAM ECM EPAM SR
6.5 42.25 5%
12.5 156.25 10%
20 400 14%
2.5 6.25 2%
12.5 156.25 8%
14.5 210.25 9%
5.5 30.25 3%
Ft(PM(9))

138.111111

0
 PROMEDIO MEDIO PONDERADO
t Dt Ft(PMP(1)) Ft(PMP(2)) Ft(PMP(2)) Ft(PMP(3)) Ft(PMP(3)) Ft(PMP(8))
1 112
2 115
3 120 114.4 113.8 114.88
4 130 119 118 119.8 116.1 118.2
5 145 128 126 129.6 122.5 126.5
6 140 142 139 144.4 133 139.5
7 155 141 142 140.2 138.5 140
8 162 152 149 154.4 147.5 151
9 164 160.6 159.2 161.72 153.3 158.4 144.05
10 163.6 163.2 163.92 160.7 162.7 150.01
n 7 7 7 6 6 1
W1 0.8 0.6 0.04 0.3 0.7 0.05
W2 0.2 0.4 0.96 0.3 0.2 0.07
W3 0.4 0.1 0.08
W4 0.1
W5 0.1
W6 0.12
W7 0.18
W8 0.3
W9
W10

Suma Wi 1 1 1 1 1 1 0

PMP 3 DAM ECM EPAM SR

13.9 193.21 10.69%
22.5 506.25 15.52%
7 49 5.00%
16.5 272.25 10.65%
14.5 210.25 8.95%
10.7 114.49 6.52%

14.18 224.24 9.55% 6.00

EN ESTE CASO EL QUE ESTA EN E ES LA MEJOR OPCION PORQUE ES EL QUE TIENER MENORES VALORES EN TOD
 0 0

R MENORES VALORES EN TODO

 SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL
t Dt FT(SE)α=0,7 Et(SE)α=0,7
1 112 112
2 115 112 3
3 120 114.1 6
4 130 118.23 12
5 145 126.47 19
6 140 139.44 1
7 155 139.83 15
8 162 150.45 12
9 164 158.53 5
10 162.36
n 8
DAM 8.9929
ECM
EPAM
SR
α 0.7

Con un alfa de 0.9 tenemos el mejor DAM

 PRONOSTICO DE LARGO PLAZO
t Dt FT(RL)
1 112 109.511111 2.48888889
2 115 116.661111 1.66111111
3 120 123.811111 3.81111111
4 130 130.961111 0.96111111
5 145 138.111111 6.88888889
6 140 145.261111 5.26111111
7 155 152.411111 2.58888889
8 162 159.561111 2.43888889
9 164 166.711111 2.71111111
10 173.861111
n 9
DAM 141.6861
ECM
EPAM
SR
α 0.9
 t Dt St Gt F
0 102.36 7.15 102,36+7,15t==>RL τ F τ
1 112 111.004 7.2994 111,004+7,2994(t-1) 0 111.004 -1
2 115 116.321 7.101 116,32136+7,1011966(t-2) 1 118.303 0
3 120 121.369 6.896 121,3690224+6,895843(t-3) 2 125.603 1
4 130 129.306 6.999951 129,306+6,999951(t-4) 3 132.902 2
5 145 141.522 7.522 4 140.202 3
6 140 143.618 6.979 5 147.501 4
7 155 153.239 7.243 6 154.800 5
8 162 161.393 7.334 7 162.100 6
9 164 165.891 7.051 8 169.399 7
10 69.177 -3.326 9 176.699 8
α 0.6 n 9
β 0.1

donde β <α
 F τ F τ F τ F τ F τ F
-2 -3 -4 -5 -6
116.32136 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5
123.422557 0 121.369 -1 -2 -3 -4
130.523753 1 128.265 0 129.305946 -1 -2 -3
137.62495 2 135.161 1 136.305897 0 141.522359 -1 -2
144.726146 3 142.057 2 143.305847 1 149.043956 0 143.617582 -1
151.827343 4 148.952 3 150.305798 2 156.565553 1 150.596542 0 153.238617
158.92854 5 155.848 4 157.305749 3 164.087149 2 157.575501 1 160.481784
166.029736 6 162.744 5 164.3057 4 171.608746 3 164.554461 2 167.724951
173.130933 7 169.640 6 171.30565 5 179.130343 4 171.533421 3 174.968118
8 7 6 5 4 3
τ F τ F τ F
-7 -8 -9
-6 -7 -8
-5 -6 -7
-4 -5 -6
-3 -4 -5
-2 -3 -4
-1 -2 -3
0 161.392714 -1 -2
1 168.726974 0 165.890789 -1
2 176.061234 1 172.941431 0 69.1765724
2 1 0
 PRONOSTICO DE LARGO PLAZO PARA SERIES ESTACIONARIAS
t Dt Posicion Estación Vj Ct
I J Demanda promedop por estacion Factor estacional inicial
1 500 1 0.75
2 700 2 1.05
3 800 3 1 666.666666666667 1.2
4 550 1 0.816831683168317
5 650 2 0.965346534653465
6 820 3 2 673.333333333333 1.21782178217822
7 530 1 0.795
8 680 2 1.02
9 790 3 3 666.666666666667 1.185
10 490 1 0.724137931034483
11 710 2 1.04926108374384
12 830 3 4 676.666666666667 1.22660098522168
670.833333 Demanda Promedio

Chart Title
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Dt Ft Pronostico
AS
Ct Ft
Factor estacional promedio Pronostico
0.7714924035507 517.542821
1.02115190459933 685.022736
1.20735569184997 809.934443
3 517.542821
685.022736
809.934443
517.542821
685.022736
809.934443
517.542821
685.022736
809.934443