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5G FORTUNES
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5G Fortunes
How to Make a Fortune on the Next Tech Revolution
By Jeff Brown, Editor, Exponential Tech Investor
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With that kind of speed, you’ll be able to down- • 4G (deployed in the 2010s): Significant
load a two-hour movie in 10 seconds. Dropped increase in data bandwidth enabling inter-
phone calls and slow-loading web pages will be a net browsing and streaming of high-quality
thing of the past. video, voice over IP technology (basically
free phone calls anywhere in the world
Plus, some previously “sci-fi” tech will finally using services like Skype or any kind of
become a reality. Technologies like self-driving messaging application)
cars, augmented and virtual reality, and holo-
graphic projection will all operate over high- Wireless technology is what enables today’s
speed 5G connections. The applications are modern mobile phone networks. Since the first
endless. generation in the 1980s, the industry has been
forced to develop the next generation of wireless
5G is a game changer because of all the techno- technology every 10 years or so.
logical innovation it will bring about.
I say “forced” because the industry basically
Some estimates cite that it’ll be responsible for has had no choice… By the end of each wireless
$12 trillion worth of new goods and services by generation, wireless networks become congest-
2035. That’s about 56% of America’s total GDP ed with traffic. And once that happens, wireless
in 2019. network operators can no longer consistently
provide high-quality service to consumers.
I simply cannot think of a trend with more profit
potential than 5G right now. But to really un- What’s the problem? Why the congestion? Well,
derstand why 5G is so transformative, let’s look one chart explains it all…
back to the early days of wireless and see how far
we’ve come… The chart on the next page shows the amount of
data and voice traffic transmitted over the world’s
The History of Wireless Networks wireless networks since the fourth quarter of
At a very high level, here’s what each wireless 2014. And it shows the exponential growth in de-
generation has enabled since 1G in 1983: mand for sending and receiving data (like images,
music downloads, and websites) over wireless
• 1G (deployed in the 1980s): Analog cellular networks.
technology, very low bandwidth, designed
to enable mobile phone calls The amount of voice traffic (in gray) was roughly
constant over the last several years. But what’s
• 2G (deployed in the 1990s): Digital cellu- striking is that data (in blue) has exploded. As of
lar technology, digital voice phone calls, Q4 2019, our wireless networks are transmitting
enabled SMS (short messaging service – 40 exabytes of data every month.
sending texts)
To put that in perspective: Just one exabyte is
• 3G (deployed in the 2000s): Widespread equivalent to 100,000 times all the printed mate-
use of CDMA technology, high-quality rial in the Library of Congress.
audio for calls, early stages of low-quality
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or audio delay. world has ever seen. And it won’t come easy.
• And there will effectively be no latency 5G is very different from 4G technology. It’s
(delay) over 5G networks. Latency will drop more expensive to build out, more complicated,
by 99% from more than 100 milliseconds and far more powerful.
down to a mere 1 millisecond. Latency like
this would enable a doctor to operate on a What’s important to understand is that there is
patient with robotic surgery… over a wireless a fundamental, technical reason for why these
network. networks are more expensive to build.
5G wireless networking technology is not evolu- 3G and 4G technology used wireless towers that
tionary… it is revolutionary. could cover 30-45 miles of flat terrain. But 5G
network architecture is completely different.
I hope that by reading this, you’re as excited as I
am with what’s coming. From my perspective, it It uses what’s called a “small cell” architecture,
can’t happen fast enough. And the positive eco- which requires far more cell tower locations. For
nomic implications are just incredible… major metropolitan areas, this could mean one
small cell tower on almost every street corner.
Massive Investment Leads
to Massive Growth Today, there are about 200,000 cell phone
towers scattered across the U.S. Yet when the 5G
Very shortly, I’ll show you how we’ll invest in this
network is constructed, there will be more than
massive communications build-out. But first, let
1,000,000 cell phone towers to support the high-
me show you how the 5G build-out will impact
er bandwidth, higher speeds, and new services
the world economy…
delivered over 5G.
For the U.S. market alone, it’s expected that the
That’s at least a fivefold increase in the number
major wireless carriers (AT&T, Verizon, and the
of towers needed for 5G compared to the previ-
combined T-Mobile/Sprint) will spend as much
ous generation.
as $275 billion on 5G wireless infrastructure.
There’s a good reason for this shift in architec-
To put that into more understandable terms,
ture… the congestion problem I mentioned earli-
this will result in an estimated three million jobs
er in this report.
created and $500 billion in GDP growth… again,
just in the U.S. Even with all of the improvements in wireless
communications technology over the last 10
Globally, total investments will be on the order
years, dropped calls still happen all the time.
of $200 billion per year through 2025. By my
calculations, total global investment will be on Right now, one small company is helping fix that.
the order of $2 trillion by the time the build-out Its game-changing technology is improving the
is done. quality and performance of mobile phone calls.
I’m confident it’s going to do extremely well in the
Put simply, this is the largest, most significant
future… and we could see 10x gains.
communications infrastructure build-out the
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Not surprisingly, we’ve received a lot of questions about whether or not 5G wireless technology is
safe for consumers. It’s important for us to ask these questions and also to understand the facts
behind the research.
Mobile phones emit radiofrequency radiation, or radio waves, which are a form of non-ionizing
radiation. This kind of radiation is normal and all around us. Non-ionizing radiation only has
enough energy to excite a molecule, and the byproduct is merely heat.
Ionizing radiation, by contrast, is higher frequency and can be a severe health hazard. It can
cause radiation sickness, burns, cancer, and even genetic damage. Ionizing radiation is the kind
of radiation we find in using nuclear power.
Since radio frequencies (RF) have been used in radio, TV, wireless networks, and many other
services for decades, this is a careful area of study for regulatory agencies to ensure that these RF
waves have no negative impact on consumers’ health.
To be very clear, there has been no conclusive evidence that RF wireless technology causes any
side effects in consumers who use, or even those in the presence of, wireless networks.
A study in Denmark analyzed the records of more than 358,000 mobile phone subscribers with
brain tumor incidence data from the Danish Cancer Registry. The “analysis found no association
between cell phone use and the incidence of glioma, meningioma, or acoustic neuroma, even
among people who had been cell phone subscribers for 13 or more years.”
In 2018, there was some very bad reporting concerning a study on the effects of high exposure of
radiofrequency energy on rats. It found that male rats exposed to radio waves developed schwan-
nomas (small tumors) on their hearts at statistically higher rates than the control group. However,
mice and female rats exposed to the same radio waves did not develop any of these small tumors.
Somewhat ironically, those animals that were exposed to the radiofrequency radiation actually
lived longer than the control animals that weren’t.
Also worth mentioning is that there have only been a handful of documented cases in humans of
schwannomas of the heart… They are incredibly rare in humans.
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This study was conducted by the National Toxicology Program (NTP), which is part of the Na-
tional Institutes of Health (NIH). Worth noting is that the study was performed at the request of
the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which is responsible for determining the safety of such
radiofrequency energy.
Left out of the negative reporting on this research was the fact that the study used levels of radiof-
requency energy that were considerably above what the FDA deems as the current safety limit for
cell phones. And the current safety limits have a 50-fold safety margin to ensure consumer safety.
In the words of the NTP, “The levels and duration of exposure to radiofrequency radiation were
much greater than what people experience with even the highest level of cell phone use, and ex-
posed the rodents’ whole bodies. So, these findings should not be directly extrapolated to human
cell phone usage.”
The FDA summarized that it had “not found sufficient evidence that there are adverse health effects
in humans caused by exposures at or under the current radiofrequency energy exposure limits.”
In support of the FDA’s position, the National Cancer Institute notes that it does not see increas-
ing numbers of brain tumors in the general population. Given that humans have been exposed to
radiofrequency energy for decades, if there was a direct correlation to our health, we should have
seen the impact already. So far, we have not.
For obvious reasons, I’ll be tracking this topic closely as 5G wireless networks become more wide-
spread. My readers know well that 5G wireless networks will use up to five times more cell phone
towers than 4G and more power in order to deliver higher speed to smartphones. It’s important
to note that all 5G-enabled smartphones will still meet the safety limits and standards set by the
Federal Communications Commission (FCC), which is informed by the FDA.
The above research should dispel any concerns you might have about 5G’s impact on your health.
But if you’re still worried about it, I’ll leave you with a couple extra steps you can take to minimize
your RF exposure…
First, use a landline phone whenever possible and try to avoid long conversations on mobile
phones. Second, when you do have long conversations on mobile phones, I recommend using
some kind of headset (wired or wireless) that allows you to talk without having the mobile phone
right next to your head. For those who are concerned, this is a simple precaution that anyone can
take.
We’re in for an incredible time as 5G wireless technology becomes available throughout the U.S.
and in other markets around the world. We’re going to see such incredible improvement in wire-
less service, we’ll wonder how we ever survived without it.
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But before we get to that company, United States Radio Frequency Allocations
let’s take a closer look at what’s
going on with wireless communi-
cations technology today…
Growing Pains
As I showed in the chart on page
4, mobile data growth has been
exponential over the last few
years. Data usage has been dou-
bling roughly every 14–15 months.
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bandwidth compared to competing solutions, gle one of those phones will contain up to 40 RF
which results in: filters compatible at 5G frequencies. That’s a lot
of filters.
• Better signal strength
The total RF filter market is broken down into
• Fewer dropped calls two simple categories: “low band” filters, called
SAW filters, and “high band” filters, called BAW
• Lower power consumption
filters.
• Less heat generated by the phone
SAW filters are used in low-RF bands, typically
In short, this technology allows a mobile device 2 GHz or less. BAW filters are used in high-RF
to access more spectrum with fewer filters due to bands, typically 2 GHz up to potentially 20 GHz.
its ability to cover a wider spectrum bandwidth. Again, Akoustis is focused entirely on BAW
filters.
Aside from allowing users to dependably make
and receive phone calls, it also offers longer bat- About 28 billion RF filters were shipped in 2016,
tery life. This is one of the most wanted features generating nearly $12 billion in revenue. And the
by adult smartphone users. After all, if we don’t RF market is forecast to grow to $19 billion by
have any power left in our batteries, it won’t mat- 2021.
ter how good our smartphone is.
The underlying driver for this market is the
But one of the biggest challenges that smartphone migration from 4G wireless technology to
and tablet manufacturers have is manufacturing 5G… which is being deployed worldwide right
products that can survive a full day of usage with- now. And as the world upgrades its wireless
out needing to be recharged throughout the day. technology to meet the demands for more
data traffic… RF filters will get more and more
So technologies that help to reduce power con- complex.
sumption on smartphones are seen as absolutely
critical by the industry. Increased RF complexity results in the need for
more RF filters in mobile devices. Put even more
I’ll go into more details about Akoustis’ BAW simply, as data services are transmitted over
filter in a minute. But first, let’s take a look at the a larger amount of different parts of the radio
overall RF filter market… spectrum, more RF filters are required. In 2005,
which was when 3G technology was being widely
A Massive Market That deployed, only two RF filters were required.
Continues to Expand
The market size for RF filters is massive. And for But by 2013, in the midst of 4G wireless technol-
a simple reason: Every single phone and wireless ogy deployments, the amount of filters required
device contains RF filters. jumped by a factor of 10! By 2015, that number
doubled again to more than 40. Needless to say,
Think about that. Consumers purchase near- the number of filters required will increase again
ly two billion new phones every year, and that during the migration to 5G wireless technology
number will increase as 5G rolls out. Every sin- and higher frequency bands.
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A Duopoly Creates a
Great Market Opportunity
Now, there’s something interest-
ing about the BAW filter market…
It is essentially a duopoly. It is
controlled by only two companies,
Qorvo and Broadcom.
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Now, it’s important to note that Akoustis’ single- This move enables Akoustis to consolidate all as-
crystal BAW filters will be more expensive than pects of the manufacturing process, which reduc-
the lower-bandwidth BAW filters from Qorvo es its design and manufacturing time, improves
and Broadcom that are commonly used in the manufacturing quality, and increases its ability to
market. service customers. What’s more, the facility has
the production capacity to support up to $200
This might sound like a competitive disadvan-
million per year in sales, with incremental invest-
tage… But there are three reasons it’s not.
ment.
First, I believe that the use of Akoustis filters will
Akoustis’ sales channel is also pretty straightfor-
reduce the overall cost of the bill of materials for
ward. It generates business opportunities pri-
mobile devices because fewer components re-
marily through three channels:
sults in lower costs.
• Reference designs: Akoustis works directly
Second, the reduction in battery consumption
with mobile baseband semiconductor play-
will be the second major driver for using Akous-
ers like Qualcomm, MediaTek (Taiwan),
tis’ BAW filters. I can foresee a 5%-10% reduc-
and Intel to design its technology for their
tion in power consumption.
reference designs. Players like Qualcomm
You may think 10% isn’t much. But in terms of create reference designs to make it easy for
power consumption, it is massive. Think about less-sophisticated companies with fewer
an average day of usage with a mobile device. If in-house engineering resources to design
a device is used for eight hours (480 minutes) mobile devices. When Akoustis’ filters are
for voice, video, and data, a 10% improvement part of the reference design, it is highly
would result in an additional 48 minutes of us- likely that the mobile device manufacturer
age. That’s a big deal. will use its product.
Third, the low-bandwidth BAW filter business • Radio frequency front-end (RFFE) man-
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– Akoustis’ technology will be, I think Akoustis stands the value of Akoustis’ IP like I do.
could capture about 10% of the high-end smart-
phone market share by the end of 2020. This Now’s the Perfect Time to Get In
would result in an annual run rate of $126 mil- To say that Akoustis is “under the radar” is an
lion in revenue. understatement. If you were to ask 10 of your
friends and colleagues, I’d bet that exactly zero of
Think about that. Akoustis has the potential to them have heard of the company.
grow from zero revenue in 2016 to more than
$120 million in just four years. The stock wasn’t even listed on the Nasdaq until
March 13, 2016. Prior to that, Akoustis was
Dominant Intellectual Property
trading over-the-counter (OTC), with few shares
Position
trading daily.
Earlier, I noted that Akoustis was essentially a
scientific research company for its first several And Akoustis has remained off Wall Street’s ra-
years of operation. And during that time, Akous- dar, even after its up-listing on the Nasdaq… But
tis quietly amassed a solid patent portfolio for its that’s quickly changing.
new single-crystal BAW filter technology. As of
The word is getting out…
early 2019, Akoustis already had 29 patents as
well as 54 patents pending approval. And that’s why now is the absolute perfect time
to get into AKTS.
While most of the market failed to notice, Akous-
tis cleverly created a dominant intellectual prop-
erty position in single-crystal BAW filter devices. Action to Take: Buy Akoustis (AKTS)
Essentially, it controls all of the foundational up to $8. For our most up-to-date risk
intellectual property (IP) for these filters. management, please refer to our online
portfolio here.
But this case is even better… Akoustis is the only
company that holds the foundational IP for sin- Note: If this stock is trading above our
gle-crystal BAW filter devices. recommended buy price at the time of
reading, my official recommendation is
And because of the benefits these BAW filters patience. Technology stocks experience
will bring to the industry, there will be rapidly natural volatility that almost always gives
growing demand for Akoustis’ technology. us a great entry point. I want to make sure
readers invest in the best companies at a
And there will be only two ways to get it… by
great price.
buying the BAW filters from Akoustis or buy-
ing the company outright. That means Akoustis
could become an attractive acquisition target. Regards,
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