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Holly Ellyatt
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Italians head to the polls Monday in seven regional elections and there is also
a nationwide vote on changes to the constitution.
The elections are seen as a key test of public support for the government
after the country was ravaged by the coronavirus pandemic.
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9/21/2020 Italy regional elections: Key test for coalition government and Lega
Supporters of the Lega party with placards reading “Try me too” in solidarity with Matteo Salvini for the Open Arms trial,
during an election rally in support of Stefano Caldoro, candidate for governor of the Campania Region on September 11,
2020 in Naples, Italy.
Ivan Romano | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Italians are heading to the polls Monday for regional elections, and to vote on
changes to the constitution, in what is seen as a key test of public support for the
government after the country was ravaged by the coronavirus.
Regional elections are being held in seven regions (Tuscany, Valle d’Aosta, Liguria,
Marche, Apulia, Veneto and Campania) and a long-awaited constitutional
referendum on whether to reduce the number of members of parliament from 945 to
600 is also being held, a move that analysts expect to be approved with little fanfare.
The elections started on Sunday and continue into Monday, with polls closing at 3pm
local time.
It’s the regional elections — that will see 35% of Italy’s electorate go to the polls —
that are more unpredictable, according to experts.
Four out of seven regions — Apulia, Marche, Tuscany and Campania — are currently
governed by the center-left Partito Democratico (PD), the party currently in a
national coalition government with the Five Star Movement (M5S) and junior
partner, Italia Viva.
Italy’s economy has been hit hard (the Bank of Italy forecasts a decline in GDP
of around 9.5% for 2020) and the elections would also be seen as a test of the
strength for the right-wing opposition, led by Lega.
“The elections are unlikely to trigger a political crisis, and our base case is that the
government will remain in power after the vote. That said, we believe the event is a
headline risk to its stability,” Luca Pennarola, European economist, and Eric
Oynoyan, senior G-10 rates strategist, at BNP Paribas said in a note Wednesday.
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9/21/2020 Italy regional elections: Key test for coalition government and Lega
party under Matteo Salvini. The vote is currently too close to call, polls suggest. BNP
Paribas’ analysts noted that a loss for the PD could have repercussions on the
leadership of the party.
“A ‘Yes’ outcome at the referendum and a balanced result at the regional elections
(with PD winning in Tuscany) would signal that the governing coalition is alive,
kicking and likely to dodge the risk of fresh elections until, at least, the end of 2021,”
they said.
“Neglecting the elections in Valle d’Aosta, for which peculiar rules apply and surveys
on voting intentions are unavailable, polls suggest the more likely scenario is a
balanced result at the six remaining regional votes,” they noted. This balance, as
well as a majority of the public approving constitutional changes “would foster the
longevity of the yellow-red coalition government as both PD and M5S would cash in
a victory,” they noted.
However, they said, a “No” outcome at the referendum and a sound defeat by PD in
four or more of the regions, particularly if the party loses Tuscany, is “likely to
some repercussions for the
have
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governing coalition.”
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9/21/2020 Italy regional elections: Key test for coalition government and Lega
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