Probability

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Probability
Counting Sample Points

Permutation
Combination

Probability

Methods of Representing Probabilities

Operations of Probability

Probability Rules

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Counting Sample Points
An engineer wants to distribute motors inside a 10 storey building. The
motor ratings of the motors are as follows:
Motor ratings (kW)
132 75 55 37 37
132 75 55 37 30
110 55 55 37 30
110 55 45 37 30
110 55 45 37 22
110 55 45 37 22
90 55 45 37 11
90 55 37 37 11
75 55 37 37 7
75 55 37 37 7
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Counting Sample Points
Generalized Multiplication Rule
If an operation can be done in n1 ways and if, after it has been done, a second
operation can be performed in n2 ways, then the two things can be done in
n1n2 ways in the indicated order.

𝑛1 𝑛2 … 𝑛𝑘

Example
How many ways can you arrange the 45 kW motors in each level of a 10
storey building?

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Counting Sample Points
An engineer wants to distribute motors inside a 10 storey building. The
motor ratings of the motors are as follows:
Motor ratings (kW)
132 75 55 37 37
132 75 55 37 30
110 55 55 37 30
110 55 45 37 30
110 55 45 37 22
110 55 45 37 22
90 55 45 37 11
90 55 37 37 11
75 55 37 37 7
75 55 37 37 7
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Counting Sample Points
Permutation
An ordered arrangement of all or part of a set of objects. Number of
permutation of n distinct objects is:

𝑃 = 𝑛!

Example
How many ways can the motors be arranged in each level of the building if
no two motors will have the same rating within each floor?

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Counting Sample Points
An engineer wants to distribute motors inside a 10 storey building. The
motor ratings of the motors are as follows:
Motor ratings (kW)
132 75 55 37 37
132 75 55 37 30
110 55 55 37 30
110 55 45 37 30
110 55 45 37 22
110 55 45 37 22
90 55 45 37 11
90 55 37 37 11
75 55 37 37 7
75 55 37 37 7
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Counting Sample Points
Permutation
The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is:

𝑛!
𝑛 𝑃𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !

Example
How many ways can you arrange 5 motors with different ratings in a
building from 11 available motors having different ratings?

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Counting Sample Points
An engineer wants to distribute motors inside a 10 storey building. The
motor ratings of the motors are as follows:
Motor ratings (kW)
132 75 55 37 37
132 75 55 37 30
110 55 55 37 30
110 55 45 37 30
110 55 45 37 22
110 55 45 37 22
90 55 45 37 11
90 55 37 37 11
75 55 37 37 7
75 55 37 37 7
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Counting Sample Points
Permutation
Permutation of n elements some of which are alike

𝑛!
𝑃=
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! … 𝑛𝑘 !

Where: 𝑛1 + 𝑛2 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝑘 = 𝑛

Example
How many ways can all motors be arranged in a 10 storey building?

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Counting Sample Points
An engineer wants to distribute motors inside a 10 storey building. The
motor ratings of the motors are as follows:
Motor ratings (kW)
132 75 55 37 37
132 75 55 37 30
110 55 55 37 30
110 55 45 37 30
110 55 45 37 22
110 55 45 37 22
90 55 45 37 11
90 55 37 37 11
75 55 37 37 7
75 55 37 37 7
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Counting Sample Points
Combination
An arrangement of objects without regard to their order.

𝑛!
𝑛 𝐶𝑟 =
𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 !

Example
How many ways can you arrange 5 motors in the basement of the building?

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Counting Sample Points
An engineer wants to distribute motors inside a 10 storey building. The
motor ratings of the motors are as follows:
Motor ratings (kW)
132 75 55 37 37
132 75 55 37 30
110 55 55 37 30
110 55 45 37 30
110 55 45 37 22
110 55 45 37 22
90 55 45 37 11
90 55 37 37 11
75 55 37 37 7
75 55 37 37 7
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Exercises
1. In how many ways can a boy and a girl be selected from a group of 5 boys and
8 girls?
2. Find the number of five-digit numbers that can be formed from the digits 1, 2,
3, 4, and 5 if no digit is repeated.
3. How many ways can a Gold, Silver, and Bronze medals be awarded among
eight contestants?
4. In how many ways can the letters of the word “Philippines” be arranged?
5. In how many different ways can 12 beads be strung on a necklace?
6. In how many ways can 3 boys be drawn from 10 boys?

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Probability
Sample space
The set of all possible outcomes of
an experiment. It is commonly
denoted as S.
Sample space (S)
Experiment
Any process by which a set of data
or outcome is generated.

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Probability
Event B
Sample (B)
One specific outcome from the
Sample Space. Also known as
Element or a Sample Point.
Sample space (S)
Events
A subset defined within the Sample
Space. Event A
(A)

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Probability
Probability is defined as the ratio Sample space (S)
of successful events or qualified
sample points to the total number
of events. 𝑁 elements

𝑛𝐴
𝑃 𝐴 = Event A (A)
𝑁

𝑛𝐴
elements

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Probability
Usually ranging from 0 to 1, the Sample space (S)
sum of all probabilities in a sample
space should be equal to 1.
𝑁 elements
0≤𝑃 𝐴 ≤1
Event A (A)
𝑃 φ =𝑃 𝑆′ =0

𝑃 𝑆 =1 𝑛𝐴
elements

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Probability
kW Frequency
Sample Problem Motor
132 ratings (kW)
2
Based on the given data, find the following: 132 75 110 55 4 37 37
132 75 90 55 2 37 30
a. Probability of a motor having the most 110 55 75 55 4 37 30
frequency rating. 110 55 55 45 11 37 30
110 55 45 45 4 37 22
b. Probability of a motor having the highest rating. 110 55 37 45 14 37 22
c. Probability of a motor with a rating of 18kW. 90 55 30 45 3 37 11
90 55 22 37 2 37 11
75 55 11 37 2 37 7
75 55 7 37 2 37 7

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Probability
Let A - probability motor having the most frequency rating. kW Frequency
132 2
𝑛𝐴 14 110 4
𝑃 𝐴 = = = 0.28 90 2
𝑁 50 75 4
55 11
45 4
Let B - probability of a motor having the highest rating. 37 14

𝑛𝐵 2 30 3
𝑃 𝐵 = = = 0.04 22 2
𝑁 50 11 2
7 2

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Probability
Let C - probability of a motor with a rating of 18kW. kW Frequency
132 2
𝑛𝐶 0 110 4
𝑃 𝐶 = = =0 90 2
𝑁 50 75 4
55 11
45 4
37 14
30 3
22 2
11 2
7 2

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Methods of Representing Probabilities
Venn Diagram
A diagram representing mathematical or logical sets as circles or closed curves
within an enclosing rectangle.
11 30
55 22 37 45 45 55 75 55
37 90 45
55
90 37 132 45
37 55 7 110
37 110 B 45
37 7 132 22 55
37 A 37 30 C
37 22 55
37 75 45 55
37 90 55
37 37 45
55 22 55
110 30
30 55 45
75 37 110
11 90 55

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Methods of Representing Probabilities
Enumeration
A list indicating possible outcomes of an event.
𝑃 𝑆 = {132,132, … , 7, 7}
𝑃 𝐶 = {0}
𝑃 𝐴 = {37, 37, … , 37}
Rule Method
A method by which events are represented by mathematical sets.
𝑃 𝑆 = {𝑘𝑊|𝑘𝑊 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑜𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑏𝑢𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔}
𝑃 𝐴 = {𝑘𝑊|𝑘𝑊 = 37}

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Methods of Representing Probabilities
Tree Diagram
A diagram used to represent a sequence of events wherein branches coming
from a decision node are directed towards outcomes of an event.
132
110
90
75
55
45
37
30
22
11
7
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Exercise
kW Frequency
Based on the previous sample problem, calculate 132 2
the following: 110 4
90 2
a. Probability of a motor having a rating of more than 75 4
37 kW. Draw a Venn diagram for the event specified 55 11
in this item. 45 4
37 14
b. Probability of a motor having a rating in between 30 30 3
kW and 90 kW. Use rule method to represent the 22 2
event in this problem. 11 2
7 2
c. Motor rating with the highest probability.

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Operations of Probability
Union
A set whose elements belong to either one of the participating set or both of
the sets.

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Operations of Probability
Sample Problem kW Frequency
132 2
How many motors are included in a group having motors 110 4
ratings that are even numbered or ratings that are below 90 2
75 4
75 kW? 55 11
45 4
37 14
30 3
22 2
11 2
7 2

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Operations of Probability
Intersection
A set whose elements are from both participating sets.

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Operations of Probability
Sample Problem kW Frequency
132 2
How many motors are included in a group having motors 110 4
ratings that are even numbered and ratings that are 90 2
75 4
below 75 kW? 55 11
45 4
37 14
30 3
22 2
11 2
7 2

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Operations of Probability
Compliment and Null
A set consisting of elements that do not belong to a particular set. The
complement of set S is known as a null set.

A A’

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Operations of Probability
Sample Problem kW Frequency
132 2
How many motors are included in a group having motors 110 4
ratings that are not below 75 kW? 90 2
75 4
55 11
45 4
37 14
30 3
22 2
11 2
7 2

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Operations of Probability
Mutually Exclusive
If one of these events occur, the other cannot occur at the same time.

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Probability Rules
Additive Rule
Applies to Union of two or more events.

𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵

For mutually exclusive events:

𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵

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Probability Rules
Sample Problem kW Frequency
132 2
What is the probability of a motor having a rating that is 110 4
even numbered or a rating that is below 75 kW? 90 2
75 4
55 11
45 4
37 14
30 3
22 2
11 2
7 2

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Probability Rules
Multiplicative Rule
Applies to Intersection of events.

𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 ×𝑃 𝐵∕𝐴

𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴)

For independent events

𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃(𝐵)

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Probability Rules
Sample Problem kW Frequency
132 2
What is the probability of a motor having a rating that is 110 4
even numbered and a rating that is below 75 kW? 90 2
75 4
55 11
45 4
37 14
30 3
22 2
11 2
7 2

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Probability Rules
Conditional Probability
The probability of event B given that A occurs

𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐵 Τ𝐴 =
𝑃(𝐴)

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Probability Rules
Sample Problem kW Frequency
132 2
What is the probability of a motor having a rating that is 110 4
even numbered given that its rating is below 75 kW? 90 2
75 4
Assume that the probability of a motor having a rating 55 11
that is even numbered and a rating below 75 kW is 0.5. 45 4
37 14
30 3
22 2
11 2
7 2

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Exercise
1. What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of fair dice
are tossed?
2. Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are
defective. If 2 fuses are selected at random and removed from the box in
succession without replacing the first, what is the probability that both
fuses are defective?
3. The probability that a flight departs on time is 𝑃(𝐷) = 0.83 ; the
probability that it arrives on time is 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.82; and the probability that it
departs and arrives on time is 𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐴) = 0.78. Find the probability that a
plane:
a. Arrives on time given that it departed on time.
b. Departed on time given that it arrived on time

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Exercises
1. In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find the probability of holding
2 aces and 3 jacks.
2. A pair of fair dice is tossed. Find the probability of getting:
a. A total of 8
b. At most a total of 5

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Exercises
3. In an experiment to study the relationship of alcoholism and study
habits in professionals, the following data are collected for 180
individuals:
Good study Moderate Study
Bad study habits
habits habits
Alcoholic 21 36 30
Non-alcoholic 48 26 19

If one of these is selected at random, find the probability that the person is
a. Alcoholic, given that the he or she has bad study habits.
b. Has good study habits, given that the he or she is not an alcoholic.

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