1 Behavior analysis of convective and stratiform rain using

2 Markovian approach over Mediterranean region from

3 meteorological radar data
4

5 M. Lazri1 , S. Hameg1, S. Ameur1, J. M. Brucker2, F. Ouallouche1 and Y. Mohia1

6 [1]{Laboratoire LAMPA, University of Tizi Ouzou, Tizi Ouzou, Algeria}

7 [2]{School EPMI, Paris, France}

8 Correspondence to: M. Lazri (m_lazri@yahoo.fr)

10 Abstract

11 The aim of this study is to analyze the chronological behavior of precipitation in the north of
12 Algeria using a Markovian approach. The probabilistic approach presented here proposes to
13 study the evolution of the rainfall phenomenon in two distinct study areas, one located in sea
14 and other located in ground. The data that we have used are provided by the National Office
15 of Meteorology in Algiers (ONM). They are a series of images collected by the meterological
16 radar of Setif during the rainy season 2001/2002. A decision criterion is established and based
17 on radar reflectivity in order to classify the precipitation events located in both areas. At each
18 radar observation, a state of precipitations is classified, either convective (heavy precipitation)
19 or stratiform (average precipitation) both for the "sea" and for the "ground". On the whole, a
20 time series of precipitations composed of three states; S0 (no raining), S1 (stratiform
21 precipitation) and S2 (convective precipitation), is obtained for each of the two areas. Thereby,
22 we studied and characterized the behavior of precipitation in time by a Markov chain of order
23 one with three states. Transition probabilities Pij of state Si to state Sj are calculated. The
24 results show that rainfall is well described by a Markov chain of order one with three states.
25 Indeed, the stationary probabilities, which are calculated by using the Markovian model, and
26 the actual probabilities are almost identical.

27