Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Polis 2004 4 Gelman
Polis 2004 4 Gelman
Èíòåðïðåòàöèè
* Äëÿ îïðåäåëåíèÿ ïîäîáíûõ ñèë èñïîëüçóþòñÿ è äðóãèå òåðìèíû. Íàïðèìåð, Ô.Áàðãõîðí íàçû-
âàåò èõ “ôðàêöèîííîé” îïïîçèöèåé [Barghoorn 1973], à òîò æå Ëèíö õàðàêòåðèçóåò êàê “êâàçè-
îïïîçèöèþ” [Linz 1973: 191].
Gelman_N.qxd 25.08.2004 14:50 Page 55
ìàêñèìàëüíûå
ïðåçèäåíöèàëèçì
èíòåãðàöèÿ ýëèò
öåëè îïïîçèöèè
ïðèíöèïèàëüíàÿ
îïïîçèöèÿ íèçêàÿ
ñòðóêòóðíàÿ
îïïîçèöèÿ
èíòåãðàöèÿ ýëèò
ïàðëàìåíòàðèçì
íåñòðóêòóðíàÿ
âûñîêàÿ
ìåòîäîâ áîðüáû
íàñèëèÿ è/èëè
èñïîëüçîâàíèå
íåëåãàëüíûõ
ëîÿëüíàÿ
îïïîçèöèÿ
ïîëóëîÿëüíàÿ
îïïîçèöèÿ
íåëîÿëüíàÿ
îïïîçèöèÿ
55
âûáîðîâ 1996 ã., ïðîòèâ ïðèíÿòèÿ áþäæåòîâ ñòðàíû â 1994 — 1998 ãã., ïðî-
òèâ óòâåðæäåíèÿ íà ïîñòàõ ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòðîâ Â.×åðíîìûðäèíà (àâãóñò 1996 ã.)
è Ñ.Êèðèåíêî (àïðåëü 1998 ã.), è ò.ä. Ýòè øàãè íå ìîãëè ïîâëèÿòü íà ïðè-
íÿòèå âëàñòíûõ ðåøåíèé: îíè, êàê è èíûå ïðàâîçàùèòíûå è îáùåäåìîêðà-
òè÷åñêèå èíèöèàòèâû ïàðòèè, áûëè ïðèçâàíû ïðèâëå÷ü ê åå ïîçèöèè îáùå-
ñòâåííîå âíèìàíèå. Ïðè ýòîì “ßáëîêî” ðåøèòåëüíî ïðîòèâèëîñü âõîæäå-
íèþ ñâîèõ ïðåäñòàâèòåëåé â ñîñòàâ ïðàâèòåëüñòâà, è “ÿáëî÷íèêè”, íàçíà÷åí-
íûå íà ìèíèñòåðñêèå ïîñòû, ïîêèäàëè ðÿäû ïàðòèè (êàê Ì.Çàäîðíîâ è
Î.Äìèòðèåâà). Íà ôîíå ÷åðåäû êðèçèñîâ è ôðàãìåíòàöèè ýëèò ïîäîáíàÿ
ñòðàòåãèÿ ïðèíîñèëà íåêîòîðûå êðàòêîñðî÷íûå äèâèäåíäû, íî âëåêëà çà ñî-
áîé è êðóïíûå èçäåðæêè. Èìèäæ “ïîëóîòâåòñòâåííîé” [Sartori 1976] îïïî-
çèöèè, íåñïîñîáíîé ïðåòåíäîâàòü íà ó÷àñòèå â ïðàâèòåëüñòâå, ïðåïÿòñòâîâàë
ïðèâëå÷åíèþ â ðÿäû “ßáëîêà” àêòèâèñòîâ ñðåäíåãî çâåíà* è ðàñøèðåíèþ
åãî ýëåêòîðàëüíîé áàçû. Ïðîùå ãîâîðÿ, â ãëàçàõ ñâîèõ ñòîðîííèêîâ, äà è ñà-
ìèõ ïàðòèéöåâ “ßáëîêî” íå âûãëÿäåëî ïàðòèåé, êîòîðàÿ ìîæåò õîòü â êàêîé-
òî ìåðå ðåàëèçîâàòü ñîáñòâåííóþ ïðîãðàììó.
Ïîíèìàÿ òóïèêîâîñòü òàêîé ïîçèöèè, ëèäåðû “ßáëîêà” ïîïûòàëèñü ïå-
ðåëîìèòü ñèòóàöèþ, õîòÿ èõ äåéñòâèÿ íå âñåãäà áûëè ïîñëåäîâàòåëüíûìè
[Hale 2004]. Íàêàíóíå äóìñêèõ âûáîðîâ 1999 ã. ñîñòàâ ïàðòèéíîãî ðóêîâîä-
ñòâà áûë îáíîâëåí, à â ïàðòèéíûé ñïèñîê âêëþ÷åíû ñòàòóñíûå ïîëèòèêè ñ
óïðàâëåí÷åñêèì îïûòîì (áûâøèé ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòð Ñ.Ñòåïàøèí, ìèíèñòð
ïî äåëàì íàöèîíàëüíîñòåé Â.Ìèõàéëîâ è ðÿä äåÿòåëåé ðåãèîíàëüíîãî óðîâ-
íÿ). Ïî èìåþùåéñÿ èíôîðìàöèè, â ïðåääâåðèè èçáèðàòåëüíîé êàìïàíèè
“ßáëîêî” ïûòàëîñü äîñòè÷ü êîìïðîìèññà ñ áëîêîì “Îòå÷åñòâî — Âñÿ Ðîñ-
ñèÿ”, ïðåäëàãàÿ ñåáÿ â êà÷åñòâå ìëàäøåãî ïàðòíåðà ïîòåíöèàëüíîìó ïîáåäè-
òåëþ. Íî êîíòåêñò âûáîðîâ îêàçàëñÿ ñîâåðøåííî èíûì. Âçðûâû æèëûõ äî-
64 ìîâ îñåíüþ 1999 ã. è íà÷àëî âòîðîé ×å÷åíñêîé âîéíû óñèëèëè âíóòðåííèå
ðàçíîãëàñèÿ â ðóêîâîäñòâå “ßáëîêà”, à çàÿâëåíèå Ã.ßâëèíñêîãî î íåîáõîäè-
ìîñòè ïåðåãîâîðîâ ñ ëèäåðàìè ×å÷íè âûçâàëî âñåîáùóþ êðèòèêó, â ïåðâóþ
î÷åðåäü — ñî ñòîðîíû êîíêóðåíòîâ-ëèáåðàëîâ. Íåóäà÷íûé èñõîä äóìñêèõ
âûáîðîâ 1999 ã. (17 ìåñò â íèæíåé ïàëàòå ïðîòèâ 45 â 1995 ã.) è ïîñëåäóþ-
ùåé ïðåçèäåíòñêîé êàìïàíèè ßâëèíñêîãî ïðîäåìîíñòðèðîâàë èëëþçîðíîñòü
ýëåêòîðàëüíûõ ïåðñïåêòèâ ïàðòèè [Îâ÷èííèêîâ 2000; Êóäðÿâöåâ, Îâ÷èííè-
êîâ 2000; Hale 2004]. Â 2000 — 2001 ãã. “ßáëîêî” âñòóïèëî â ïîëîñó êðèçè-
ñà: åãî ðÿäû ïîêèíóëè íåñêîëüêî èçâåñòíûõ äóìñêèõ äåÿòåëåé è ðåãèîíàëü-
íûõ àêòèâèñòîâ, ïàðòèÿ ïîòåðÿëà ïîääåðæêó âåäóùèõ ñïîíñîðîâ è ïîñëå ñè-
ëîâîé ñìåíû ðóêîâîäñòâà ÍÒÂ âåñíîé 2001 ã. îêàçàëàñü ïî÷òè îòðåçàíà îò
îáùåíàöèîíàëüíûõ êàíàëîâ ÑÌÈ.
 ñëîæèâøèõñÿ îáñòîÿòåëüñòâàõ “ßáëîêî” ïîïûòàëîñü ñìåíèòü ñòðàòåãèþ,
ñäåëàâ ñòàâêó íà “ëîÿëüíîñòü” ïðàâÿùåé ãðóïïå. Â Äóìå òðåòüåãî ñîçûâà îíî
îãðàíè÷èâàëîñü êðèòèêîé îòäåëüíûõ àñïåêòîâ ïðàâèòåëüñòâåííîãî êóðñà, ïî
áîëüøåé ÷àñòè ïîääåðæèâàÿ èíèöèàòèâû Êðåìëÿ è çàìåòíî ñìÿã÷èâ ïîçèöèè
ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê Ïðåçèäåíòó è ïîëèòè÷åñêîìó ðåæèìó â öåëîì [Shevtsova
2003: 52-53]. Äàæå äåéñòâèÿ âëàñòåé âî âðåìÿ çàõâàòà òåððîðèñòàìè òåàòðàëü-
íîãî öåíòðà íà Äóáðîâêå â îêòÿáðå 2002 ã. íå âûçâàëè çíà÷èìîé ðåàêöèè “ÿá-
ëî÷íèêîâ” (íàïðîòèâ, â ýòîì ñëó÷àå ïîëóîïïîçèöèîííûé ÑÏÑ îñóäèë
Êðåìëü). Êàçàëîñü áû, ýòè øàãè äîëæíû áûëè ñìÿã÷èòü ïîñëåäñòâèÿ êðèçè-
ñà â ïàðòèè, òåì áîëåå ÷òî áëàãîäàðÿ ñïîíñîðñòâó ñî ñòîðîíû êîìïàíèè
“Þêîñ” åå ôèíàíñîâîå ïîëîæåíèå çàìåòíî óêðåïèëîñü. Íî, ïîêèíóâ íèøó
ïðèíöèïèàëüíîé îïïîçèöèè (ïðåáûâàíèå â êîòîðîé ãðîçèëî ìàðãèíàëèçàöè-
åé), äåìîêðàòû íå èìåëè øàíñîâ çàêðåïèòüñÿ è â êà÷åñòâå ïîëóîïïîçèöèè.
Âî-ïåðâûõ, ýòà íèøà áûëà óæå çàíÿòà; âî-âòîðûõ, ïðàâÿùàÿ ãðóïïà íóæäà-
ëàñü â íèõ åùå ìåíüøå, ÷åì â ëèáåðàëàõ; íàêîíåö, â-òðåòüèõ, ê òîìó âðåìå-
íè “ßáëîêî” óæå íå ìîãëî íè âëèÿòü íà ïðèíÿòèå ðåøåíèé, íè ïðèâëåêàòü ê
ñåáå îáùåñòâåííîå âíèìàíèå. Ïîýòîìó ïðåäâûáîðíàÿ ñòðàòåãèÿ ïàðòèè, ïî
ñóòè, ñâåëàñü ê áåñïëîäíûì êîíñóëüòàöèÿì ñ Êðåìëåì, à ðàçðàçèâøèéñÿ â
ðàçãàð êàìïàíèè êðèçèñ âîêðóã “äåëà “Þêîñà”” è àðåñòà Ì.Õîäîðêîâñêîãî
íàíåñ “ßáëîêó” ïîñëåäíèé óäàð. Ïðîâàë ïàðòèè íà äóìñêèõ âûáîðàõ 2003 ã.
îêàçàëñÿ çàêîíîìåðíûì ñëåäñòâèåì “ñìåíû âåõ”, õîòÿ ñàìè “ÿáëî÷íèêè” íå
áåç îñíîâàíèé óêàçûâàëè è íà íåñïðàâåäëèâûé õàðàêòåð âûáîðîâ, è íà çëî-
óïîòðåáëåíèÿ âëàñòåé [Ìèõàëåâà 2004].
Äàëüíåéøèé õîä ñîáûòèé — îòêàç îò ó÷àñòèÿ â ïðåçèäåíòñêèõ âûáîðàõ
2004 ã., íàçíà÷åíèå ðÿäà “ÿáëî÷íèêîâ” íà ïðàâèòåëüñòâåííûå ïîñòû (È.Àð-
òåìüåâ ñòàë ãëàâîé ôåäåðàëüíîé àíòèìîíîïîëüíîé ñëóæáû, Â.Ëóêèí — ïàð-
ëàìåíòñêèì óïîëíîìî÷åííûì ïî ïðàâàì ÷åëîâåêà), íåóäà÷è íà âûáîðàõ ðå-
ãèîíàëüíûõ ëåãèñëàòóð [Êûíåâ 2004] — ãîâîðèò î òîì, ÷òî âîçìîæíîñòè
“ßáëîêà” â åãî íûíåøíåì âèäå, ñêîðåå âñåãî, èñ÷åðïàíû. Âîçâðàùåíèå äå-
ìîêðàòîâ íà ïóòü ïðèíöèïèàëüíîé îïïîçèöèè, âåðîÿòíî, ïîìîæåò ñîõðàíèòü
ïàðòèþ, íî âðÿä ëè åå ïîòåíöèàë îêàæåòñÿ äîñòàòî÷íûì äëÿ ñàìîñòîÿòåëü-
íîãî âûæèâàíèÿ â êà÷åñòâå çíà÷èìîãî àêòîðà ðîññèéñêîé ïîëèòèêè. Åñëè
íåáëàãîïðèÿòíûå èíñòèòóöèîíàëüíûå óñëîâèÿ èçíà÷àëüíî íàêëàäûâàëè îã-
ðàíè÷åíèÿ íà ñòàíîâëåíèå â Ðîññèè äåìîêðàòè÷åñêîé îïïîçèöèè [Ãåëüìàí
1999: 198], òî “íàâÿçàííûé êîíñåíñóñ” ýëèò ïîñëå 2000 ã. ïîïðîñòó íå îñòàâ-
ëÿåò äëÿ íåå ìåñòà.
ÇÀÊËÞ×ÅÍÈÅ: ÅÑÒÜ ËÈ ØÀÍÑÛ ÄËß ÎÏÏÎÇÈÖÈÈ?
Êðóøåíèå ðîññèéñêîé îïïîçèöèè â õîäå ýëåêòîðàëüíîãî öèêëà 2003 —
2004 ãã. âûçâàëî íå òîëüêî êðèòè÷åñêóþ ðåôëåêñèþ â ïîëèòè÷åñêîì ñîîá-
ùåñòâå, ñàìûì èçâåñòíûì ïðîÿâëåíèåì êîòîðîé ñòàëà ïóáëèêàöèÿ ñòàòüè 65
Ì.Õîäîðêîâñêîãî [Õîäîðêîâñêèé 2004]. Åãî ñëåäñòâèåì ñòàëè è íåêîòîðûå
îðãàíèçàöèîííûå óñèëèÿ ïî ôîðìèðîâàíèþ íîâîé îïïîçèöèè èç “îñòàò-
êîâ” ëèáåðàëîâ è äåìîêðàòîâ (íàïðèìåð, ñîçäàíèå “Êîìèòåòà-2008”), à òàê-
æå ïîïûòêè êîîïåðàöèè ìåæäó êîììóíèñòàìè è äåìîêðàòàìè ïðè ïðîâåäå-
íèè îòäåëüíûõ àêöèé ïðîòåñòà. Äàëüíåéøåå íàðàñòàíèå àíòèäåìîêðàòè÷åñ-
êèõ òåíäåíöèé â ðîññèéñêîé ïîëèòèêå ìîæåò äàæå ñòèìóëèðîâàòü îáúåäè-
íåíèå âñåõ ýòèõ ñåãìåíòîâ îïïîçèöèè ïî ïðèíöèïó íåãàòèâíîãî êîíñåíñó-
ñà, ïîäîáíî òîìó, êàê â íà÷àëå 1990-õ ãîäîâ ðîññèéñêîå ïîëèòè÷åñêîå îá-
ùåñòâî îáúåäèíÿëîñü ïðîòèâ ãîñïîäñòâà ÊÏÑÑ. Òåì íå ìåíåå, èñõîäÿ èç
ïðåäñòàâëåííîãî âûøå àíàëèçà, ïðèõîäèòñÿ êîíñòàòèðîâàòü, ÷òî ïåðñïåêòè-
âû îïïîçèöèè çàâèñÿò íå ñòîëüêî îò åå ñîáñòâåííûõ äåéñòâèé, ñêîëüêî îò
íàáîðà âíåøíèõ óñëîâèé, êîòîðûå çàäàþò ñòðóêòóðó ïîëèòè÷åñêèõ âîçìîæ-
íîñòåé [Lipsky 1968; Kitschelt 1988; Tarrow 1994]. Íà ñåãîäíÿøíèé äåíü
ñòðóêòóðà òàêèõ âîçìîæíîñòåé î÷åâèäíî íåáëàãîïðèÿòíà äëÿ âñåõ òèïîâ îï-
ïîçèöèè, íî îçíà÷àåò ëè ýòî, ÷òî íàäåæäû íà ñòàíîâëåíèå â Ðîññèè íîâîé
îïïîçèöèè ïîëíîñòüþ áåñïî÷âåííû?
Íåêîòîðûå ëèáåðàëüíî íàñòðîåííûå íàáëþäàòåëè óâÿçûâàþò âîçðîæäå-
íèå ðîññèéñêîé îïïîçèöèè ñ äåñòàáèëèçàöèåé ðåæèìà â õîäå ðåøåíèÿ èì
ìîäåðíèçàöèîííûõ çàäà÷ è ïðîâåäåíèÿ íåïîïóëÿðíûõ ðåôîðì [ñì. Âîðî-
æåéêèíà 2003; Shevtsova 2003]. Íå îòðèöàÿ âåðîÿòíîñòè òàêîãî ïîâîðîòà ñî-
áûòèé, ìîæíî ïðîãíîçèðîâàòü, ÷òî â ýòîì ñëó÷àå íàèáîëüøèå øàíñû íà óñ-
ïåõ ïîëó÷àò íå íàñëåäíèêè ëèáåðàëîâ, äåìîêðàòîâ èëè äàæå êîììóíèñòîâ,
à, ñêîðåå, ïîëóëîÿëüíàÿ è/èëè íåÿëîÿëüíàÿ ïðèíöèïèàëüíàÿ îïïîçèöèÿ,
ðîëü êîòîðîé ñåãîäíÿ â ðîññèéñêîé ïîëèòèêå íåâåëèêà. Íûíåøíèõ êàðèêà-
òóðíûõ ëèìîíîâöåâ è àíòèãëîáàëèñòîâ ìîãóò ñìåíèòü ïàðòèè è ïîëèòèêè,
îïèðàþùèåñÿ íå íà ñèìâîëè÷åñêîå, à íà âïîëíå ðåàëüíîå íàñèëèå. Ïîïûò-
Gelman_N.qxd 25.08.2004 14:50 Page 66
Çóäèí À. 2000. Ñîþç ïðàâûõ ñèë. — Ìàêôîë Ì., Ïåòðîâ Í., Ðÿáîâ À. (ðåä.). Ðîññèÿ â èç-
áèðàòåëüíîì öèêëå 1999 — 2000 ãîäîâ. Ì.
Êóäðÿâöåâ È., Îâ÷èííèêîâ Á. (2000). Êàìïàíèÿ Ã.ßâëèíñêîãî. — Ìàêôîë Ì., Ïåòðîâ
Í., Ðÿáîâ À. (ðåä.) Ðîññèÿ â èçáèðàòåëüíîì öèêëå 1999 — 2000 ãîäîâ. Ì.
Êûíåâ À. 2004. Ïåðåõîä ê ñìåøàííûì âûáîðàì â ðåãèîíàõ: “ïðèíóäèòåëüíàÿ òðàíñôîð-
ìàöèÿ”. — Ïîëèñ, ¹ 2.
Ëèõòåíøòåéí À. 2002. “Ïàðòèè âëàñòè”: ýëåêòîðàëüíûå ñòðàòåãèè ðîññèéñêèõ ýëèò. —
Ãåëüìàí Â., Ãîëîñîâ Ã., Ìåëåøêèíà Å. (ðåä.) Âòîðîé ýëåêòîðàëüíûé öèêë â Ðîññèè, 1999 —
2000. Ì.
Ìåðêåëü Â., Êðóàññàí À. 2003. Ôîðìàëüíûå è íåôîðìàëüíûå èíñòèòóòû â äåôåêòíûõ äå-
ìîêðàòèÿõ. — Øòûêîâ Ï., Øâàíèö Ñ. (ðåä.) Ïîâîðîòû èñòîðèè: ïîñòñîöèàëèñòè÷åñêèå
òðàíñôîðìàöèè ãëàçàìè íåìåöêèõ èññëåäîâàòåëåé. Ò.1. ÑÏá., Ì.
Ìèòðîõèí Ñ. 2001. Ïðåäïîñûëêè è îñíîâíûå ýòàïû äåöåíòðàëèçàöèè ãîñóäàðñòâåííîé
âëàñòè â Ðîññèè. — Ëþõòåðõàíäò-Ìèõàëåâà Ã., Ðûæåíêîâ Ñ. (ðåä.). Öåíòð — ðåãèîíû — ìå-
ñòíîå ñàìîóïðàâëåíèå. Ì., ÑÏá.
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