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Norabuena Etal 1997
Norabuena Etal 1997
the interface and that crustal shortening file. The shortening and locking rates can be estimating source parameters of earthquakes
occurs. If a total convergence of 75 mm/year estimated independently because they influ- from historical data are considerable (17),
was locked on the interface, the predicted ence data at different distances from the the seismic cycle is typically longer than the
rates (Fig. 3) generally exceeded those ob- trench. Thus, we can discriminate models instrumental record (18), and the size and
served within about 150 km of the trench with the best fitting locked and the shorten- recurrence interval of earthquakes on a
(north profile) but were less than those ing rate from models with a locked rate equal trench segment can be variable (17, 19, 20).
observed at a greater distance. The effect of to their sum and no shortening (that is, 30 Some large earthquakes have substantial
partial locking (stable sliding) is illustrated and 15 mm/year from 45 and 0 mm/year). slow afterslip (21) not included in the seis-
by the curves in Fig. 3, which were comput- These estimates do not depend on the total mic moment calculation, which produces a
ed with the assumption that only part of the convergence rate because they were estimat- spurious seismic slip deficit. Hence, it is dif-
total convergence, 45 mm/year (north) and ed directly from the geodetic data, rather ficult to assess whether an apparent seismic
50 mm/year (south), locks the fault. The than as differences from an assumed total slip deficit indicates a seismic gap where
predicted rates near the trench were smaller convergence. large earthquakes are overdue or that much
and fit the data better, because only the For the northern profile, the estimated 30 of the interplate motion occurs aseismically
portion of the slip locked at the interface mm/year of locked slip accumulating on the (22). Estimation of aseismic slip compounds
produces transient deformation. Farther plate interface corresponds to 39% of the the uncertainty, because the estimated seis-
than about 300 km from the trench, how- convergence predicted by NUVEL-1A or mic slip is subtracted from an assumed con-
ever, a misfit remained. 44% of that predicted by space geodetic data. vergence rate, so different plate motion mod-
We modeled the remaining misfit by in- Subtracting 15 mm/year of Andean shorten- els give different results (19). Moreover,
cluding shortening in the eastern Andes. ing implies that the remaining 42% or 34% crustal shortening (about 15% of net con-
Although some shortening may occur by of the plate motion occurs aseismically by vergence here) is typically not subtracted
seismic strain accumulation and release, we smooth stable sliding. For the south profile, from the assumed convergence.
assumed that most of it reflects a permanent the estimated 38 mm/year of slip accumulat- The use of GPS data reduced these un-
change in the position of Andean crust with ing on the plate interface corresponds to certainties because we more directly estimat-
respect to stable South America. On the 49% of the convergence predicted by ed the total plate motion, shortening rate,
basis of geological data, we modeled conver- NUVEL-1A or 56% of that predicted by and locked slip rate accumulation, regardless
gence with thrust faults (Fig. 3) 600 to 650 space geodesy. Subtracting 12 mm/year of of whether the latter would be released in a
km from the trench for the north profile and Andean shortening implies that 35% or 26% conventional earthquake or afterslip. How-
850 to 900 km from the trench for the south of the plate motion occurs by stable sliding. ever, the GPS data faced the difficulty of
profile. The faults were assumed to dip 30°W These results are interesting because this accounting for possible deformation of the
and to be locked to 20-km depth, typical area illustrates the difficulties in estimating upper plate due to strain diffusion for tens to
values for continental crust. The results are seismic and aseismic slip from the earth- hundreds of years after large earthquakes
largely insensitive to the precise location of quake record (4). Slip in past earthquakes is (23). Extended periods of data will be need-
the faults, their geometry, and the partition- estimated from seismological data for earth- ed to see how substantial this effect is.
ing of motion between them. quakes occurring after circa 1900 and in- The GPS results suggest that about 15
The best fits occurred for about 30 mm/ ferred from historical records for earlier mm/year of shortening occurs in the fold
year of locking and about 15 mm/year of earthquakes. The seismic slip rate is then and thrust belt. A lower estimate, 1 to 3
shortening on the northern profile and for inferred from earthquake history and com- mm/year, comes from the seismic moments
about 38 mm/year of locking and about 12 pared with a plate motion model. This pro- of earthquakes (6). Geologic shortening es-
mm/year of shortening on the southern pro- cess has several limitations. Uncertainties in timates range from 8 to 13 mm/year aver-
Fig. 4. (A) Global positioning system– derived site motion azimuths relative to
stable South America, with 95% confidence limits, as a function of latitude,
for sites in three groups. Also shown are the convergence azimuth predicted
by NUVEL-1A and the trench-normal and trench-parallel directions. (B) Av-
erage velocity for these groups, relative to stable South America, trench slip
vector direction predicted by coastal site motions, and observed trench slip
vector direction. WC, Western Cordillera; EC, Eastern Cordillera; F TB, fold
and thrust belt.
aged over the post-Oligocene [past 25 mil- reflecting thrust faulting between the sub- vergence direction varies with latitude.
lion years (My)] to 27 mm/year averaged ducting plate and a forearc sliver, and Northern coastal sites show some, whereas
over the past 5 My (7). Thus, our GPS strike-slip motion is expected between the those to the south near the bend in the
estimates, and less precise estimates de- forearc and the interior of the overriding coastline at 18°S, where the obliquity
rived with only one permanent GPS site plate. The motion of the northern coastal changes, show essentially none. If this cor-
(24), are comparable with geological esti- sites relative to South America (Fig. 4) is relation is not accidental, the subduction
mates made with the assumption of con- rotated about 10° from the convergence geometry affects either the interseismic
stant post-Oligocene shortening. Al- direction, indicating slightly (about 5 mm/ elastic strain or the sliver motion. If the
though more complicated scenarios are year) more trench-parallel motion than ex- latter is the case, the small slip partition-
possible (rapid initial shortening followed pected from the decomposition of a vector ing may reflect the force balance between
by lower rates), the simplest interpretation of this length in the convergence direction. the thrust and strike-slip faults (8), with
is that crustal thickening has been build- This motion implies that the coastal sites additional resistance to strike slip provid-
ing the high Andes by thrust faulting and move about 8 mm/year left laterally in the ed by the “buttress effect” (28) of the
folding at an approximately steady rate for trench-parallel direction, relative to the bend.
about 25 My, as the deformation, now at Western Cordillera and Altiplano sites. Our initial results, which will be refined
the sub-Andean fold and thrust belt, mi- It is unclear whether this small motion is by subsequent data, and studies elsewhere
grated eastward (7). Perhaps in plate significant, and if so, whether it reflects per- illustrate how space-based geodesy is open-
boundary zones, both the overall plate manent trench-parallel transport of a coastal ing a new era for studies of plate conver-
motion and its different components re- sliver or transient forearc deformation due to gence and continental mountain building
main approximately constant over long the seismic cycle that will be released in (29). We are approaching the point at
periods even when the geometry changes future large earthquakes. The present GPS which understanding of the convergence
(thrusting stepping eastward). Similar ob- data are insufficient to show directly coastal process will no longer be limited by the
servations have been made for compo- motion with respect to the Western Cordil- kinematic data.
nents of the San Andreas system (25). lera and Altiplano sites. Similarly, the ex-
The observation that the geodetic and pected deviation in the trench slip vectors is
geologic shortening estimates exceed the difficult to assess. This motion can be pre- REFERENCES AND NOTES
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seismic estimate implies that most shorten- dicted with analysis in velocity space (Fig. 1. J. Dewey and S. Lamb, Tectonophysics 205, 79
ing either occurs aseismically or (less likely) 4), although the observed site motions in- (1992).
will be released in future earthquakes. Oth- clude the transient effects of the seismic 2. GPS techniques are reviewed by T. Dixon [Rev. Geo-
er continental areas offer little guidance: in cycle. The observed motion of the coastal phys. 29, 249 (1991)]. For information on DORIS, see
A. Cazenave, J. Valette, and C. Boucher [J. Geo-
some areas, seismic strain rates match the sites relative to stable South America pre- phys. Res. 97, 7109 (1992)]. SLR is summarized by
expected relative motion, but a deficit ex- dicts Nazca– coastal forearc motion trending D. Smith et al. [ibid. 95, 22013 (1990)]. For tectonic
ists in others (26), although the geodeti- about N70°E, between the plate motion and applications of space geodesy, see R. G. Gordon
and S. Stein [Science 256, 333 (1992)] and S. Stein
cally and seismically inferred deformation is trench-normal directions. The mean direc- [in Space Geodesy and Geodynamics, D. Smith and
similarly oriented (27). tion of slip vectors at the trench is rotated D. Turcotte, Eds. (American Geophysical Union,
We used the data to test for slip parti- somewhat from the predicted convergence Washington, DC, 1993), pp. 5 –20].
tioning, a phenomenon that occurs in some direction, to about N74 6 4°E. However, 3. J. C. Savage, J. Geophys. Res. 88, 4984 (1983).
4. H. Kanamori, in Island Arcs, Trenches and Back-Arc
situations in which convergence is oblique given the scatter in slip vectors and the Basins, M. Talwani and W. Pitman III, Eds. (American
to the trench (8). In such situations, earth- uncertainties in the GPS data and in Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 1977), pp.
quake slip vectors at the trench are often NUVEL-1A, it is difficult to draw a definite 163–174; K. McNally and J. Minster, J. Geophys.
Res. 86, 4949 (1981); E. Peterson and T. Seno, ibid.
rotated from the predicted convergence di- conclusion. 89, 10233 (1984); J. Pacheco, L. Sykes, C. Scholz,
rection toward the trench-normal direction, The azimuthal deviation from the con- ibid. 98, 14133 (1993).