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The Future of Knowledge Work: Predictions For 2020: On The Horizon August 2010
The Future of Knowledge Work: Predictions For 2020: On The Horizon August 2010
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Introduction
Many people predict that knowledge work will be a significant contributor to the future global
economy. (i.e.: Drucker, 1959; Davenport, 2005). For example, Drucker (2001), who coined
the term ‘‘knowledge worker,’’ says:
The Next Society will be a knowledge society. Knowledge will be its key resource, and knowledge
workers will be the dominant group in its work force.
One trend that will facilitate the rise of the knowledge economy will be increasing ubiquitous
access to information. People all over the world will be able to access the information they
need anytime, anywhere (Leake, 2008; Hoomen, 2005). This trend is already beginning with
q 2010 XEROX
CORPORATION. All rights
the escalation of smartphone shipments, and the millions of applications available for them
reserved. (Anderson, 2009). To complement this trend, knowledge workers are becoming more mobile
DOI 10.1108/10748121011072663 VOL. 18 NO. 3 2010, pp. 213-221, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1074-8121 j ON THE HORIZON j PAGE 213
and distributed. Even today, millions of knowledge workers work in coffee shops,
restaurants, cars, airports, and parks, in addition to their homes (World at Work, 2007).
In 2008 and 2009 the Xerox Future of Work team conducted ethnographic studies of leading
edge remote and mobile workers to understand how the latest technologies were used by
knowledge workers, and how those technologies might affect workers of the future. Study
findings revealed a continuing set of needs, requirements, and challenges for workers of the
future, despite technological advances.
This paper summarizes key findings from our study of leading edge knowledge workers, and
uses the findings to inspire a discussion of the issues and challenges that future knowledge
workers may face.
Key findings
Participants in our study were closely tied to their smart phones, often using their phone as
the go-to device for the information they needed – even when they were working at home.
They used their phones to constantly monitor their work status through their e-mail. Despite
the fact that they were constantly tied to their smart phone, participants still encountered a
several difficulties, as outlined below.
The constant e-mail checking demonstrated by our participants reveals the need for
ubiquitous access to relevant information. Participants went to great lengths to keep a bird’s
eye view of the status of their work – sacrificing microbreaks to sift through incoming
messages to determine whether the status of their work had changed (see Plate 1). Currently
the tasking of keeping track of work status is a manual process that requires people to read
through countless bits of information, which arrive in no particular order. People must
manually integrate the bits of information to form a coherent picture that is relevant to them.
In the future, as the amount of information explodes, people will need help filtering,
prioritizing, and integrating information.
In addition to struggling with the integration of bits of information, participants also struggled
to integrate information across devices and locations. Most participants had multiple
devices to manage: at least two computers (for personal and work use), two or more phones
(including land lines, and work and personal cell phones), and sometimes several firewalls,
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Plate 1 E-mail during microbreaks
thumb drives, and other ancillary devices like scanners and printers (Watts-Perotti et al., in
press). Within this web of devices, participants struggled to ensure they had the right device
to access the right information at the right time. They found it difficult to make sure each
device was charged, and had the most up to date information. Participants often stored
redundant information cross multiple locations so they could access the information from
wherever they were working. Synchronizing this redundant information across devices and
locations (like calendars, task lists, contact lists, and document versions) was often a manual
task that required participants to remember which information needed updating, and to
manually transfer that information to the appropriate devices or locations. This finding is
similar to Grimes and Brush (2008), who also found that participants struggled to
synchronize and share information across multiple calendars.
Infrastructure constraints. The finding that participants were tied to their smart phones points
to participants’ strong desire to attain ubiquitous access to their e-mail and other information.
However, participants often struggled to maintain electrical power and internet access. They
carried duplicate cords, batteries, and hardware in travel bags (see Plate 2). Some kept
extra chargers at different locations either to charge the phone throughout the day, or to
serve as backup if they forgot to charge the phone the night before.
Several participants planned stops during their mobile day at known way stations like
familiar coffee shops or restaurants with reliable wi-fi. They used these waystations to
recharge batteries, make calls, and access the internet.
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One participant even had two mobile phones – one for data access, and one for voice calls.
He bought the second voice-call phone so he would not waste his smartphone battery on
voice calls.
The following quotes illustrate participants’ frustration with their struggle to keep their
equipment charged:
The laptop died in the middle of a meeting [. . .] Thank God she had one power strip open. She
had three power strips fully loaded, because she had two computers in her office.
I have one extra battery, so I have two total. So, yeah, when I leave on Sunday, I’ll have the extra
battery in my bag [. . .] I think the battery thing is frustrating period. I think we all just sort of learn to
live with that.
Struggle to stay digital. Despite the fact that participants were tied to their smart phones,
they still struggled to stay digital. Participants were constantly receiving information in
multiple formats as they worked in mobile locations. Over the course of their day, they
collected incoming voice calls, business cards, receipts, and paper brochures. These
random bits of information were difficult to integrate into participants’ digital information
landscapes. Even if they had digital applications on their phone to help them track
information on the go, these apps were not always compatible with their computer, so
participants even struggled to integrate disparate sources of digital information.
Not only was it difficult to process incoming information, it was also difficult for participants to
take quick notes while working on the go. Participants tried different techniques – from
carrying post-it notes to leaving themselves voice-mails, but these techniques left them with
the same integration problems they had with incoming bits of information. The following
quote demonstrates the difficulty of taking and keeping track of notes while on the go:
Usually if I’m driving or something, I don’t have a pencil and paper. I’m not going to stop and write
it down. I just call myself and leave a note. And then when I get home, I write it down.
Overwhelmed by information
Along with the sheer proliferation of information content are the ever-increasing ways to
access, store and share it. The term ubiquitous access has been used to articulate the goal
that information is available anywhere, anytime delivered in a format that you desire. There is
evidence that we are on this path, with all kinds of traditional and electronic information
available locally, on the web and in the cloud via PC’s, printers, kiosks, portable drives and
the current ‘‘go to device’’, smart phones. In our own studies we observed mobile workers
coordinate their activities to ensure access to the internet and electrical power. Although
participants relied heavily on their mobile phones they also acquired paper documents and
needed access to their laptops, web sites, and file servers throughout their workdays.
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The channel for information flow is two-way. We are the recipients of information as well as
generators of information content in an ever growing array of formats, e.g., photos, videos,
audio, web content, electronic and paper documents, including the ever-vexing e-mail. We
observed many of the participants in our study using some combination of these formats
during their workday. (See the Information Overload Research Group web site, www.
iorgforum.org for resources on information overload, particularly e-mail and the impact of
interruptions on work.) The boundaries of this information expands with evolving use of
social media e.g., Facebook, Linked-In, blogs and micro blogs for personal and work life,
where interactions with others can be recorded as additional information sources.
The ease of sharing and storing information introduces an increase in redundancy of content
across applications, devices, and media with much of the information in varying stages of
completion. In our study, mobile workers faced difficulties integrating information across
multiple devices as well as across various applications. Different versions of the same
information can be found in different locations, including paper-based file cabinets, as well
as in different applications and media. As we head toward a future knowledge work
economy, knowledge workers will need systems that support integration of information
across different sources, whether the sources are devices or content.
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developed at the Palo Alto Research Center (Bellotti et al., 2008), to the current proliferation
of mobile device applications, using location as a basis for providing a variety of services
such as recommend local merchants, track your jogging route and provide driving
directions, context-aware systems continue to embed themselves in our application
landscape. (See Apple iTunes store (www.apple.com) for a variety of recent location-based
applications.)
In the future, context-aware tools will accommodate the user’s situation and preferences,
e.g., how they want to be contacted or receive notifications (voice, e-mail, instant message)
depending on their location., or where information should be stored based on its purpose
and immediacy. Intelligent software assistants will help knowledge workers keep track of
information related to work, tasks, and personal activities of interest and easily reprioritize or
reorient these based on emerging events. Visual representations of information spaces will
illustrate links between related information elements and enable easy navigation,
manipulation and use of information.
User-awareness and control. Context-aware systems rely on information provided by a
combination of other systems, external sensors and users themselves. A potential
by-product of digital participation is inadvertent leaking of information bits, which can risk
privacy or cause unintended consequences. Younger generations seem less restrained
when it comes to sharing personal information while older generations seem to be more
cautious. Alsop (2008), refers to the millennial generation (or NetGeneration) as lacking a
sense of privacy online as they share mundane and sensational aspects of their lives on
social networking sites without a sense of potential impact on their careers and personal
lives. Privacy once lost can never be regained. Currently personal information exists in
varying degrees, located in disparate locations across the web, with no coherent view for the
user into their personal content or how it is being used. In the future, people will need ways to
build coherent web identities, or at a minimum, a view of how their personal information is
being used. Knowledge workers will need easy to use views into what the systems are doing
with their personal information and what assumptions, inferences and actions are
propagated. More importantly, they will need ways to correct incorrect information and
maintain some sense of control over their personal information.
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This can be time-consuming and error-prone for uninitiated information consumers. In turn,
the emerging trend of micro-fragmented information consumption can distort critical
contextual parameters and also lead to sub-optimal actions and decisions.
Technology will continue to play an important role in balancing information delivery efficiency
with knowledge and innovation-enabling information effectiveness to meet the growing
demands for actionable and reliable intelligence.
Tension 2: knowledge is global, mobile and difficult to contain behind the firewall. In the
anytime, anywhere world knowledge can no longer be sequestered behind the corporate
firewall. Knowledge workers will increasingly bridge information and knowledge gaps
through personal networks and non-traditional collaborations to get things done. Bound to
an office, desk or increasingly free-roaming, as our research showed, the future knowledge
worker will create alliances, allegiances, loyalties, connections and relationships that reach
far beyond their current employment setting in an effort to ensure and secure their own future
relevance.
The adaptability and responsiveness of the enterprise will be proportional to the adaptability,
flexibility and sense-making ability of the people that support it. Technology will continue to
play a key role in calibrating the organizational need for idea protection and innovation
guards with the need to rapidly engage the best and brightest from around the globe to
develop the next big thing, solve critical problems and create shareholder value
(McLaughlin, 2010).
Tension 3: increasing knowledge-intensity is not reflected in today’s educational outcomes.
Smarter products, solutions and services require a smarter workforce. The weight of its
export containers reflects a nation’s effective leverage of ideas, knowledge and information
technology, where lighter generally means brighter.
Sustainable competitive advantage in a fast-paced, inter-connected, global economy
continues to drive the knowledge-intensity of business processes and interactions and will
require a steady, engagement-ready, knowledgeable workforce. The war for talent has
already been declared and is exacerbated by predicted generational shifts caused by baby
boomers (Malone, 2004; Holtshouse 2009a, b).
This demand for career-ready knowledge workers coincides with a US high-school drop-out
crisis that threatens the USA’s economic competitiveness and growth and has reinforced the
need for broader educational engagements and commitments to future proof economic
outlooks.
A special report by the National Science Foundation highlights the role technologies such as
cognitive tutors and interactive textbooks can play in reengaging US students around
science and math to improve their international performance ranking. Technologies such as
these will continue to migrate from the class room into the work setting to enable continuous
just-in-time learning for future knowledge workers irrespective of their work environment, job
status or academic history.
Conclusion
The industrial economy was focused on motion and movement of people to drive efficiency
and economic wellbeing of nations. The knowledge economy of the future will be focused on
the productivity of the mind or rather the motion and movement of brain cells to turn
experiences and information into knowledge; knowledge and experiences into ideas; and
ideas and experiences into products, solutions and services that make a sizable contribution
in real economic terms and create sustainable competitive advantage.
This evolution toward a knowledge economy constitutes a significant paradigm shift in many
respects. Future knowledge workers will need tools to help them integrate and access
information across devices, formats, and locations, to facilitate their increasingly mobile and
remote work styles. Technology will need to become smarter and more tailored to specific
users to help knowledge workers filter and integrate disparate information bits into usable
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knowledge. As technology becomes more aware of, and adapted to specific users, they will
need visibility and control of the documented personal information that becomes a
by-product of evolving context-aware systems.
Not only will individual knowledge workers need to harness the proliferation of digital
personal information, but also corporations of the future will need new ways to harness the
ideas and innovation generated the by global, mobile knowledge workforce. Given the
increasing complexity involved in generating new, innovative ideas, the shift toward a
knowledge economy will also require different initiation processes from the ground up. Basic
education can no longer focus on rote replication of facts, but must lay the foundation for the
critical exploration of multiple intelligences as well as ideas, understanding, knowledge and
the lifelong desire to continue this process iteratively to drive personal, organizational and
institutional renewal.
Technology can be a distraction, a facilitator and a key enabler. We have traditionally
evaluated this technology contribution in terms of the vector of impact a new technology has
on our business processes and economic endeavors. In the future we may well have to
assess a new technology’s IQ in terms of its contributive power to enhance the productivity
of the mind.
References
Alsop, R. (2008), The Trophy Kids Grow Up: How the Millennial Generation Is Shaking up the Workplace,
Jossey-Bass Publishers, San Francisco, CA.
Anderson, M. (2009), ‘‘Top ten predictions for 2009’’, Strategic News Services Podcast, available at:
www.tapsns.com/media.php
Bellotti, V., Begole, B., Chi, E.H., Ducheneaut, N., Fang, J., Isaacs, E., King, T., Newman, M.W. and
Partridge, K. (2008), ‘‘Activity-based serendipitous recommendations with the Magitti mobile leisure
guide’’, Proceedings of the 26th Annual SIGCHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems,
pp. 1157-66.
Davenport, T. (2005), ‘‘The importance of knowledge workers in a global economy’’, November 2, blog
entry, available at: Babsonknowledge.org
Drucker, P.F. (1959), The Landmarks of Tomorrow, Harper, New York, NY.
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Watts-Perotti, J., Sprague, M.A., Swenton-Wall, P., McCorkindale, C., Purvis, L. and McLaughlin, G.
(in press), ‘‘Exploring documents and the future of work’’, in Szymanski, P. (Ed.), Making Work Visible:
Ethnographically Grounded Case Studies of Work Practice, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
World at Work (2007), Telework Trendlines for 2006, World at Work, based on data collected by the
Dieringer Research Group, February.
Further reading
Committee on Education and Labor (2009), ‘‘High school dropout crisis threatens US economic growth
and competitiveness, witnesses tell House panel’’, available at: http://edlabor.house.gov/newsroom/
2009/05/high-school-dropout-crisis-thr.shtml (accessed April 15, 2010).
Drucker, P.F. (1999), Management Challenges for the 21st Century, Butterworth-Heinemann, New York,
NY.
Friedman, T.L. (2000), The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization, Straus & Giroux,
New York, NY.
Information Overload Research Group (n.d.), available at: www.iorgforum.org/ (accessed April 16,
2010).
McGrath, D. (2009), ‘‘Smartphone shipments to grow 6-11%, iSuppli says’’, EE Times, available at: www.
eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID ¼ 215800530
National Science Foundation (n.d.), ‘‘Math wath’s the problem?’’, available at: www.nsf.gov/news/
special_reports/math/index.jsp (accessed April 15, 2010).
Tracy, J. (2010), ‘‘Coming of age with information overload’’, Huffington Post, April 4, available at: www.
huffingtonpost.com/james-tracy/coming-of-age-with-inform_b_524807.html
Corresponding author
Gabriele McLaughlin can be contacted at: gamcla@gwmail.gwu.edu
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