VENEZUELA HUMANITARIAN CRISIS 20190225 Blas Regnault

Venezuela 2019
Complex Humanitarian Emergency:

Causes and Probably Scenarios
By Blas Regnault
1
Complex Humanitarian Emergency: Causes and Probably Scenarios/ Blas Regnault
Understanding causes of a Complex Humanitarian Emergency
Source: Venezuelan Complex Humanitarian Emergency Report. Multidisciplinary Team based on UN official documents
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1B-ahngbLBlF48ZOsWmIiUVQq049nYBsu/view Twitter @Venezuelan_CHE
2
Plan
1. Historical Issues
Failing model
2. Access to Rights
Health, Education, Water and Food
3. How to help?
Some considerations and risks
Five Scenarios for Humanitarian Aid
3
1. Historical Issues
Failing model
4
1. Historical Issues of the crisis
Period 1999 - 2013
- “Participatory Democracy” 1999 National Constitution
 Very progressive in social, economic, cultural and human rights

 Universal access to public services Education/Health/Social Security/
 Institutional fabric for the application never took place

 Parallel systems (“effectiveness”) ended up collapsing or failing
 Conventional institutional systems were decapitalized
5
Period 1999 - 2013
- Popular Distribution of Oil Rents
 Access to direct subsidies food, scholarship, health

 Access to cheap USD
 Destruction of private sector

 Entire economy bases its plans and policies (both in the oil and non-oil
sectors) on oil rents (most instable and fluctuating income)
 Centralisation economic exacerbated
6
Period 2013 - 2019
- Falling oil production from 2.3 Mb/d (2013) to 0.9 Mb/d (2019)
- New currency created August 2018 has lost 80%

September inflation 233%, monetary supply increase by 15-40% weekly
- In 2018 Hyperinflation over 2 million percent

GDP 1/3rd of what it was in 2012
- “Desalarización” of workers: job attendance is more expensive than staying at home

7
Period 2013 - 2019
- Military taking an increasingly prominent role in Ministries (as such

Health, Oil, Finances, Nutritional Institute) and productive activities
- The Supreme Court (controlled by central government) plays a central

role in the political system, marginalizing social movements and
political parties
- Non-published official figures on Health, Education, Food
8
Period 2013 - 2019
Life conditions
Getting by:
• 25-30% have some access to foreign currency
• 55-60% depending on the government
• 10-15% are destitute
Source: David Smilde. Nov 2018
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2. Access to Rights
Health, Education, Water and Food
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Emergency for damage to health and life
Destruction of a public health system already deteriorated, causing serious damage to the health of millions of people,
the reappearance and spread of epidemics eradicated decades ago and thousands of deaths and other irreparable
damages increasing progressively
• At least 60% of the medical assistance capacity available in 2011 was lost
between 2012 and 2017 (provided by public health services to 82% of population)
• Maternal mortality rose to 66%
• Infant mortality to 30% from 2015 to 2016. They continue to rise in 2018, with the aggravating factors
of malnutrition and epidemics
• In 2017, the malaria epidemic generated 406,000 cases, with 280 deaths in 2016.
• 700,000 new cases and 1,500 deaths are expected by the end of 2018 due to the
deficiencies of programs against the malaria
Source: Venezuelan Complex Humanitarian Emergency Report. Multidisciplinary Team. 2018
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xwVfLtDrmTjt5oCQbRp-JoqNTjRbr3Ff/view Twitter @Venezuelan_CHE
11
Emergency for Damage to children and adolescents in Education and Family Cares
Destruction of national capacities to guarantee the availability, accessibility, acceptability and adaptability of a primary and
secondary education that satisfies the basic learning needs.
• On average, 70% of students do not attend class regularly

• At least 15% have a severe school delay, mainly due to lack of food and clean water
• Increase of 60% of school dropouts
• More than 1,000,000 children out of school
• Massive teacher migration or change of job because cannot cover costs of food
• 50% of schools rebound endemic diseases in students due to lack of hygiene, food and desks
• Exacerbated malnutrition by a School Feeding Program (twice a week/ irregular, insufficient, of
poor quality and low in calories)
• Since 2015 Increase 75% of school violence

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xwVfLtDrmTjt5oCQbRp-JoqNTjRbr3Ff/view Twitter @Venezuelan_CHE
12
Damages and losses caused by water: lack, pollution and floods
The dismantling of the entire institutional and physical structure of the sector has compromised the quality of the sources of
supply, the treatment and purification of water, distribution, sanitation and health, hydroelectric production, even the very
reduced industrial and food production the country has today: in short, it is endangering the lives of Venezuelans in all areas.
• 82% of the population (28.6 Millions) does not receive water on a regular basis. That which is
received sporadically, is of doubtful quality or not potable
• 75% of public health care centers do not receive water on a regular basis, or do not receive it
at all. The national hospital network does not have a reliable water supply and has severe
sanitation problems
• The institutional and physical structures of the government agencies responsible for water
management have been dismantled
• Wastewater collection through the sewage disposal service has been drastically reduced. In
2011, a collection of only 30% of the population's wastewater was recorded
13
Emergency for Damage to food production and importation
Low access, availability and use of food for adequate consumption. Accelerated nutritional deterioration, with the most affected
children, pregnant women, the elderly, people in chronic health conditions and people who are confined or in areas of difficult
geographic access. The lack of nutrients, calories and proteins between the conception and the end of the two years of life,
represents a threat to the growth and physical, mental and social development of the new generations
• Food Shortages. 60% fall in domestic food production. Falling 70% in food imports
• 64% of Venezuelans had lost about 11 kg of weight between 2016 and 2017, due to the
accelerated deterioration of food intake in the quantity and quality needed, children and
women being more affected
• 80% of Venezuelan households live in food insecurity due to the closure of establishments, the
shortage and costs of food and the difficulties of cooking due to lack of water, gas and
electricity.
• From 5% to 11.5%, the percentage of undernourished population in Venezuela increased

between 2016 and 2018, and global acute malnutrition reached emergency percentages in
children under 5 years of age and pregnant women in poor parishes.
14
Exodus
United Nation High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates
• 2.6 Venezuelans abroad

• 1.6 million have fled Venezuela since 2015
• Venezuelan outflow continues unabated, stands now at 3.4 million
https://www.unhcr.org/news/press/2019/2/5c6fb2d04/venezuelan-outflow-
continues-unabated-stands-34-million.html
• Increase of Left-Behind Children in urban poor neighbourhood and rural regions
Complex Humanitarian Emergency: Causes and Probably

15
Scenarios/ Blas Regnault
3. How to help?
Considerations and risks
Five Scenarios for the Humanitarian Aid
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3. How to help?
Considerations and risks
- Civil Society weakened
- State weakened
- High probability of Humanitarian Aid co-optation by any political force
(government and opposition)
- How to get a good network for Humanitarian Aid distribution?
- Guarantee of Neutrality and +/- universal access to the Aid
• Catholic Church + Caritas
• In urban region, NGO’s already installed
• Big challenge is the access to rural and border regions
• Red Cross (?)
17
Probably Scenarios For Humanitarian Aid
All cases there is the economic and humanitarian crisis in the short term
Four cases there is a high probability of an authoritarian government
Five scenarios for the next three months (As of 25th February 2019. 12:00)
1. Current government stays in office with exacerbated polarization (70%)
2. New head of government with “chavista” army support (15%)
3. New head of government with “opposition” army support (2.5%)
4. Coalition army and civil “chavista” + “opposition” (2.5%)
5. Civil opposition government (10%)
Scenarios based on historical and political analysis by the author

18
Thank you
Blas Regnault
Email: regnault@iss.nl
Twitter: @blasregnault
19

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VENEZUELA HUMANITARIAN CRISIS 20190225 Blas Regnault

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Venezuela 2019

Complex Humanitarian Emergency:

Period 1999 - 2013

- “Participatory Democracy” 1999 National Constitution

 Very progressive in social, economic, cultural and human rights

 Institutional fabric for the application never took place

- Popular Distribution of Oil Rents

 Access to direct subsidies food, scholarship, health

 Destruction of private sector

- New currency created August 2018 has lost 80%

- In 2018 Hyperinflation over 2 million percent

- “Desalarización” of workers: job attendance is more expensive than staying at home

- Military taking an increasingly prominent role in Ministries (as such

- The Supreme Court (controlled by central government) plays a central

- Non-published official figures on Health, Education, Food

• On average, 70% of students do not attend class regularly

Source: Venezuelan Complex Humanitarian Emergency Report. Multidisciplinary Team. 2018

• From 5% to 11.5%, the percentage of undernourished population in Venezuela increased

• 2.6 Venezuelans abroad

Complex Humanitarian Emergency: Causes and Probably

Scenarios based on historical and political analysis by the author

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