End-use Analysis for Demand

Forecasting & Options Analysis

By Sam Kayaga
WEDC, Loughborough University

Step 2: Analyse current situation

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 DATA COLLECTION Step 3: Develop response

Why demand forecasting?

ƒ To develop a
projection or
‘reference case’
of future water
Deficit
demand in a Water Gap
given region Surplus
ƒ To help
understand the
gap between
supply and
demand Time

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 Historical demand forecasting

ƒ Historical/current per person water demand

ƒ Forecast water demand by multiply the per person
demand by projected population
ƒ It is a quick and easy method
ƒ Limitations
o Only projecting current situation which may have been
affected by ‘other factors’ such as climate
o Does not account for end use changes (e.g. change of
technology and efficiency levels of showers, toilets
etc.)

Inaccuracies of historical demand

forecasting

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 Comparison of methods of demand
forecasting

Regression analysis with climate correction

ƒ Establishes an empirical relationship between

demand and key variables (e.g. weather
related variables, restrictions, land use
change, economic factors)
ƒ Limitations
o Demand limited to current or historical
situation
o Does not account for changes in end use

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 Climate correction using regression
analysis

End-use analysis

ƒ Separate water demand into different sectors (e.g.

residential, industrial)
ƒ Separate residential into end uses (e.g. showers,
toilets) and project
ƒ Benefits
ƒ Detailed understanding of ‘how’ water is used and how
this may change over time
ƒ Uses the concept of the ‘unit of service’ and not just
‘supplying a volume of water’
ƒ Limitations
ƒ Data on end uses may not be available
ƒ Takes time

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 Systems Analysis

Data collection for demand forecasting

The System – The System – The customer

Service Provider
Demographic Stock End-use
Bulk Metered Other data data data

water water supplies

•Surveys •Questionnaires
•Other Govt •Surveys
•Surveys Statistics •Data loggers
•Other Govt •Surveys •Diaries
Statistics •Other studies

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Sector-based analysis

Disaggregating demand

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 Data/information needs for end-use analysis

ƒ Indoor end uses

o Toilet ƒ Outdoor end uses
o Bath o Pool/spa
o Shower o Irrigation systems
o Wash basin o Evaporative air
o Washing machine conditioners
o Laundry tap o Lawn/garden
o Kitchen tap o Car washing
o Dish washer

What factors affect demand?

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 How much water is used?

Single residential household demand

(700 m3/hh/a) – Alice Springs, Australia

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Forecasting using
end use analysis

Toilet stock projections in Sydney

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 Supply side options

Supply-side options (influences yield)

New dams, pipelines, groundwater, desalination
Changed environmental flow regime
Reuse schemes for environmental flows
Indirect potable reuse into storages
Changed drought response strategies:
-restrictions regime
-emergency supply readiness
-drought pricing

Demand side options

Demand-side (influences demand)
Improve system efficiency (leakage, pressure
management)
Improve water-use market metering, billing and
pricing; education and advisory services
Improve residential water use efficiency (incentives,
retrofit, regulation)
-appliances and fixtures
-landscapes and irrigation
Improve business water use efficiency
(incentives, retrofit, regulation)
Substitute potable use (on-site or larger
scale) -rain tanks and stormwater
-greywater and effluent reuse -groundwater

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 Measures and instruments

ƒ Measures - what to do to achieve a reduction

in water use
ƒ Instrument - how to ensure the chosen
measures are put in place or taken up:
o Economic - incentives or cost-reflective tariffs
o Regulatory – use of regulations or bye-laws to
induce changes
o Communicative – education, advertising /
marketing

Structural & behavioural opportunities for

water conservation

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Toilet water usage projections for Sydney

Potential for potable water substitution –

Use of the water quality cascade

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 Analysis of options

ƒ Use of various costing methods

ƒ Average Incremental Cost (for water saved)
ƒ Annualised unit cost
ƒ Cost benefit ratio
ƒ What are the total resource costs borne by
ƒ the utility
ƒ the government
ƒ Customers
ƒ Society (externalities that can be quantified)
ƒ What is the net cost and unit cost of each option

The cost elements

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 Potential saving

Supply Curve (showing marginal cost) for

ranked options & anticipated savings

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 Supply curve for options considered

Sustainability criteria:
Qualitative assessment

ƒ Risk and feasibility consideration

ƒ Environmental impacts
ƒ Social concerns

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 Conclusion

ƒ How could we adapt the IRP process to the

working environment in cities of developing
countries?

(To be discussed in groups)

Thank you

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