Parameters of the model

1 Probabilistic?

Name live probabilistic deterministic alpha beta description

Transition probabilities random

draw
tpA2A 0.702 0.702 0.721 1235 1251 483 Transition probability from A to A
tpA2B 0.216 0.216 0.202 379 350 1384 Transition probability from A to B
tpA2C 0.073 0.073 0.067 128 116 1618 Transition probability from A to C
tpA2D 0.009 0.009 0.010 16 17 1717 Transition probability from A to D
tpB2B 0.559 0.559 0.581 675 731 527 Transition probability from B to B
tpB2C 0.426 0.426 0.407 514 512 746 Transition probability from B to C
tpB2D 0.015 0.015 0.012 19 15 1243 Transition probability from B to D
tpC2C 0.745 0.745 0.750 1312 437 Transition probability from C to C
tpC2D 0.255 0.255 0.250 437 1312 Transition probability from C to D

Costs
se
dmca £ 1,891 £ 1,891 £ 1,701 £ 1,701 1.00 1701 Direct medical costs associated with
dmcb £ 1,963 £ 1,963 £ 1,774 £ 1,774 1.00 1774 Direct medical costs associated with
dmcc £ 4,702 £ 4,702 £ 6,948 £ 6,948 1.00 6948 Direct medical costs associated with
ccca £ 2,249 £ 2,249 £ 1,055 £ 1,055 1.00 1055 Community care costs associated w
cccb £ 1,033 £ 1,033 £ 1,278 £ 1,278 1.00 1278 Community care costs associated w
cccc £ 4,211 £ 4,211 £ 2,059 £ 2,059 1.00 2059 Community care costs associated w

Drug costs

cAZT £ 2,278 £ 2,278 Zidovudine drug cost

cLam £ 2,086 £ 2,086 Lamivudine drug cost

Other parameters
ln mean ln se
RR 0.70 0.699 0.509 -0.675 0.169737 Treatment effect (RR)
cDR 0.06 Annual discount rate - costs (%)
oDR 0 Annual discount rate - benefits (%)
 probability from A to A
probability from A to B
probability from A to C
probability from A to D
probability from B to B
probability from B to C
probability from B to D
probability from C to C
probability from C to D

dical costs associated with state A

dical costs associated with state B
dical costs associated with state C
ty care costs associated with state A
ty care costs associated with state B
ty care costs associated with state C

t effect (RR)
scount rate - costs (%)
scount rate - benefits (%)
Markov model

MONOTHERAPY Life Years

Year A B C D no disc disc
0 1
1 0.702 0.216 0.073 0.009 1.000 1.00 1.00
2 0.493 0.272 0.197 0.037 1.000 0.98 0.98
3 0.346 0.259 0.299 0.096 1.000 0.93 0.93
4 0.243 0.219 0.358 0.180 1.000 0.86 0.86
5 0.171 0.175 0.377 0.276 1.000 0.77 0.77
6 0.120 0.135 0.368 0.377 1.000 0.67 0.67
7 0.084 0.101 0.340 0.474 1.000 0.57 0.57
8 0.059 0.075 0.303 0.563 1.000 0.48 0.48
9 0.042 0.055 0.262 0.642 1.000 0.40 0.40
10 0.029 0.039 0.221 0.710 1.000 0.32 0.32
11 0.021 0.028 0.184 0.768 1.000 0.26 0.26
12 0.014 0.020 0.150 0.815 1.000 0.21 0.21
13 0.010 0.014 0.122 0.854 1.000 0.17 0.17
14 0.007 0.010 0.097 0.885 1.000 0.13 0.13
15 0.005 0.007 0.077 0.910 1.000 0.10 0.10
16 0.004 0.005 0.061 0.930 1.000 0.08 0.08
17 0.002 0.004 0.048 0.946 1.000 0.06 0.06
18 0.002 0.003 0.037 0.958 1.000 0.05 0.05
19 0.001 0.002 0.029 0.968 1.000 0.04 0.04
20 0.0009 0.0013 0.0226 0.9753 1.000 0.03 0.03

sum 8.11 8.11

 Costs COMBINATION THERAPY Life
no disc disc A B C D no disc
1
£ 6,460 £ 6,094 0.792 0.151 0.051 0.006 1.000 1.00
£ 6,808 £ 6,059 0.627 0.224 0.127 0.022 1.000 0.99
£ 6,929 £ 5,818 0.440 0.261 0.235 0.064 1.000 0.96
£ 6,721 £ 5,324 0.309 0.241 0.318 0.132 1.000 0.90
£ 6,245 £ 4,666 0.217 0.201 0.362 0.219 1.000 0.82
£ 5,601 £ 3,948 0.153 0.159 0.371 0.317 1.000 0.73
£ 4,883 £ 3,248 0.107 0.122 0.355 0.415 1.000 0.63
£ 4,162 £ 2,611 0.075 0.091 0.324 0.509 1.000 0.54
£ 3,482 £ 2,061 0.053 0.067 0.286 0.594 1.000 0.45
£ 2,870 £ 1,602 0.037 0.049 0.245 0.668 1.000 0.37
£ 2,336 £ 1,231 0.026 0.035 0.206 0.732 1.000 0.30
£ 1,882 £ 935 0.018 0.025 0.171 0.786 1.000 0.24
£ 1,502 £ 704 0.013 0.018 0.139 0.830 1.000 0.19
£ 1,191 £ 527 0.009 0.013 0.112 0.866 1.000 0.15
£ 938 £ 391 0.006 0.009 0.090 0.895 1.000 0.12
£ 734 £ 289 0.004 0.007 0.071 0.918 1.000 0.09
£ 572 £ 212 0.003 0.005 0.056 0.936 1.000 0.07
£ 444 £ 156 0.002 0.003 0.044 0.951 1.000 0.06
£ 343 £ 113 0.002 0.002 0.034 0.962 1.000 0.04
£ 265 £ 82 0.001 0.002 0.027 0.971 1.000 0.03

£64,367 £46,073 8.69

Years Costs
disc no disc disc

1.00 £ 8,520 £ 8,037

0.99 £ 8,666 £ 7,713
0.96 £ 6,836 £ 5,739
0.90 £ 6,817 £ 5,399
0.82 £ 6,507 £ 4,863
0.73 £ 5,973 £ 4,211
0.63 £ 5,308 £ 3,530
0.54 £ 4,595 £ 2,883
0.45 £ 3,895 £ 2,305
0.37 £ 3,244 £ 1,812
0.30 £ 2,664 £ 1,403
0.24 £ 2,162 £ 1,075
0.19 £ 1,737 £ 815
0.15 £ 1,384 £ 612
0.12 £ 1,095 £ 457
0.09 £ 861 £ 339
0.07 £ 673 £ 250
0.06 £ 524 £ 184
0.04 £ 406 £ 134
0.03 £ 314 £ 98

8.69 £72,183 £51,859

Analysis

Mono Comb Difference Estimated

LYs Cost LYs Cost LYG incCost ICER
single draw 8.11 £46,073 8.69 £51,859 0.58 £5,787 £9,942