ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo

universiteti

statistika ekonomikisa
da biznesisaTvis
(leqciebis kursi)

nawili II

Tbilisi 2013

1
 w i n a s i t y v a o b a

Tanamedrove msoflioSi statistikuri mecnierebis meTodebi farTod

gamoiyeneba sazogadoebrivi cxovrebis yvela sferoSi da gansakuTrebiT ki
ekonomikasa da biznesSi. amitom aucilebelia, rom studentebma farTod
Seiswavlon konkretuli statistikuri meTodebis gamoyenebis
Taviseburebebi sxvadasxva sferoSi, rac gaafarToebs SemdgomSi maTi
dasaqmebis SesaZleblobas. swored am miznis miRwevas emsaxureba
winamdebare leqciebis kursi, romelic did daxmarebas gauwevs rogorc
studentebs, aseve praqtikos specialistebs. misi struqtura srulad
Seesabameba Sesabamisi saswavlo disciplinis - ,,statistika ekonomikisa da
biznesisaTvis-2” – damtkicebul silabuss.
leqciebis kursis momzadebis procesSi gamoyenebuli iqna rogorc
qarTul, ise inglisur, germanul da rusul enebze gamocemuli
Tanamedrove specialuri literatura. winamdebare leqciebis kursi
moamzada ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo
universitetis ekonomikuri da socialuri statistikis kaTedram (saerTo
redaqcia, winasityvaoba da Tema 7 - ,,sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis
statistika” - simon gelaSvili; Tema 1 - ,,Sromis bazris statistika” –
merab xmalaZe da qeTevan CitalaZe; Tema 2 - ,,ZiriTadi da sabrunavi
kapitalis statistika” da Tema 3 - ,,makroekonomikuri statistikis
maCvenebelTa sistema” – marine mindoraSvili; Tema 4 - ,,sabazro
koniunqturis statistika” – qeTevan marSava; Tema 5 - ,,safinanso-sabanko
statistika” – nino abesaZe da zamira Sonia; Tema 6 - ,,cxovrebis donis
statistika’’ – merab xmalaZe da irine maisuraZe.
igi gankuTvnilia umaRlesi saswavleblebis nebismieri ekonomikuri,
biznesis, socialuri da sxva specialobebisa da fakultetebis
studentebisaTvis. igi did daxmarebas gauwevs aseve praqtikos
specialistebs da am sakiTxebiT dainteresebul mkiTxvelTa farTo wres.

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 Sinaarsi

Tema 1. Sromis bazris statistika - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4

Tema 2. ZiriTadi da sabrunavi kapitalis statistika - - - - - - - - - - - - - 45

Tema 3. makroekonomikuri statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema - - - - - - - - 65

Tema 4. sabazro koniunqturis statistika - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 93

Tema 5. safinanso-sabanko statistika - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 157

Tema 6. cxovrebis donis statistika - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 205

Tema 7. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistika - - - - - - - - - - - 247

literatura - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 279

3
 Tema 1. Sromis bazris statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi:

– Sromis bazris statistikis Seswavlis obieqti da ZiriTadi amocanebi;

– statistikuri informaciis wyaroebi Sromis bazris Sesaxeb;
– mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT;
– mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis da dasaqmebis statistika;
– umuSevrobis statistika;
– samuSao Zalis moZraobis statistika;
– Sromis anazRaurebis statistika;
– samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis statistikuri analizi;
– Sromis nayofierebis statistika.

1.1. Sromis bazris statistikis Seswavlis obieqti da ZiriTadi amocanebi.

Sromis bazris maxasiaTebeli makroekonomikuri maCveneblebi qveynis
ekonomikuri mdgomareobis donis da ganviTarebis mniSvnelovani
maxasiaTeblebia. maT pirvel rigSi miekuTvneba dasaqmeba da umuSevroba,
rogorc qveyanaSi socialuri mdgomareobis ori polusi, romelTa
wonasworoba, ufro sworad Tanafardoba, mniSvnelovnad gansazRvravs
qveynis SigniT arsebul ara mxolod socialur, aramed politikur
situaciasac. aRniSnulis naTeli dadasturebaa 2007 wlidan mimdinare
msoflio ekonomikuri krizisi, ris Sedegadac umuSevrobis donem espaneTsa
da saberZneTSi 25 %-s gadaaWarba, xolo dReisaTvis saberZneTi, espaneTi,
portugalia da irlandia defoltis (gakotrebis) zRvarze miiyvana.
Sesabamisad, Sromis bazris statistikis maCveneblebi warmoadgens
umniSvnelovanes makroekonomikur indikatorebs, romlebic aucilebelia
saxelmwifos socialuri da ekonomikuri politikis SemuSavebisaTvis.
Sromis bazris statistika, rogorc ekonomikuri statistikis
Semadgeneli nawili, Seiswavlis Sromis statistikis iseT mniSvnelovan
sakiTxebs, rogoricaa:
1. statistikur monacemTa wyaroebi Sromis bazris Sesaxeb;
2. mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT;
3. mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis da dasaqmebis statistika;
4. umuSevrobis statistika;

4
 5. samuSao Zalis moZraobis statistika;
6. Sromis anazRaurebis statistika;
7. samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis statistikuri analizi;
8. Sromis nayofierebis statistika.
ganvixiloT sakiTxebi cal-calke:

1.2. statistikuri informaciis wyaroebi Sromis bazris Sesaxeb

Sromis bazris statistika, rogorc ekonomikuri statistikis Semadgeneli

nawili, Seiswavlis Sromis statistikasTan dakavSirebul iseT mniSvnelovan
sakiTxebs, rogoricaa ekonomikurad aqtiuri da araaqtiuri mosaxleoba, maTi
ricxovnoba da Semadgenloba, dasaqmeba, dasaqmebis done da struqtura
profesiebis, ekonomikis seqtorebis, dargebis, genderul da qalaq-soflis WrilSi
da a.S. Sromis bazris zemoTaRniSnuli da maTTan dakavSirebuli sakiTxebi
warmoadgens Sromis bazris Seswavlis obieqts, xolo maTi raodenobrivi
daxasiaTeba Sromis bazris statistikis Seswavlis sagans.
gegmuri meurneobisgan gansxvavebiT sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi
umuSevrobis Seswavlam didi socialuri da ekonomikuri mniSvneloba SeiZina. Tu
socializmis pirobebSi formalurad umuSevroba ar arsebobda, sabazro
ekonomikis pirobebSi is realobad iqca da Sesabamisad dasaqmebasTan erTad did
gavlenas axdens qveynis socialur-ekonomikur ganviTarebaze, cxovrebis doneze.
Sromis bazris statistikis maCveneblebi warmoadgenen umniSvnelovanes
makroekonomikur indikatorebs, romlebic aucilebelia saxelmwifos socialuri
da ekonomikuri politikis SemuSavebisaTvis.
saqarTvelos sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlis pirobebSi Seicvala Sromis
statistikis informaciis mopovebis xerxebi. socializmis pirobebSi Sromis
bazris Sesaxeb informacia moipoveboda saxelmwifo sawarmoebze sruli
dakvirvebiT yovelwliurad, xolo 3-5 weliwadSi erTxel tardeboda sawarmoebis
sruli gamokvleva dasaqmebulTa Sesaswavlad sqesis, asakis, profesiebis,
Tanamdebobebis da sxva niSnebis mixedviT.

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 amasTan erTad, informacias samuSao Zalis ricxovnobis da sqesobriv-
asakobrivi Semadgeblobis, misi dargobriv_teritoriuli ganawilebis, dasaqmebis
donis da sxvaTa Sesaxeb gvaZlevda mosaxleobis aRwerebi.
saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 wlis sayovelTao aRweriT aseve mopovebuli
iqna monacemebi samuSao Zalis ricxovnobis da Semadgenlobis, arsebobis
saSualebaTa wyaroebis, dasaqmebis, ZiriTadi saqmianobis an Sesrulebuli
samuSaos sruli dasaxelebis Sesaxeb, monacemebi 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis
dausaqmebel mosaxleobaze. magram mosaxleobis aRwerebi, rogorc viciT, tardeba
10 weliwadSi erTxel, maSin, rodesac monacemebi Sromis bazris Sesaxeb saWiroa
ara Tu 10 weliwadSi erTxel an yovelwliurad, aramed sistematiurad,
yovelTviurad, yovelkvartalurad.
amitom Sromis bazris statistikis mniSvnelovan wyaros warmoadgens
SinameurneobaTa gamokvlevebi, romelic iZleva sistematiur informacias samuSao
Zalis ricxovnobis da Semadgenlobis, ekonomikuri statusis, dasaqmebis da
umuSevrobis Sesaxeb.
garkveuli informacia miiReba sawarmoebidan. amasTan msxvili sawarmoebi
Seiswavleba sruli dakvirvebiT, xolo saSualo da mcire sawarmoebi-SerCeviTi
dakvirvebiT.
saqarTveloSi Sromis bazris statistikis Sesaxeb informaciis mopovebis,
damuSavebisa da maCveneblebis gamoTvlis meTodologia eyrdnoba Sromis
saerTaSoriso biuros, Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis (Sso) da sxva
saerTaSoriso organizaciebis rekomendaciebs.
Sromis statistikis winaSe dasmuli amocanebis gadasawyvetad saWiroa
Seswavlili iqnas Semdegi sakiTxebi:
1. mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT;
2. dasaqmeba da umuSevroba; SromiTi resursebis balansi;
3. samuSao Zalis moZraoba;
4. Sromis anazRaureba;
5. Sromis nayofiereba;
6. danaxarjebi samuSao Zalaze.

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 1.3. mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT

mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT warmoadgens

klasifikacias statusis mixedviT gaweul saqmianobaSi. am SemTxvevaSi statusi
aRniSnavs adamianis mdgomareobas, rols, funqcias Sesrulebuli saqmianobis
procesSi.
saqarTvelos statistikaSi ekonomikuri statusis gansazRvra xdeba
saerTaSoriso standartebTan misadagebiT, kerZod Sromis saerTaSoriso
organizaciis (Sso) kriteriumebis gaTvaliswinebiT.
saqarTvelos statistikaSi aRiricxeba ekonomikuri statusis Semdegi saxeebi:1
ekonomikurad aqtiuri – piri, romelic muSaobs an sTavazobs Tavis Sromas
saqonlis an momsaxurebis sawarmoeblad. ekonomikurad aqtiur mosaxleobas
miekuTvneba 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis zemoTaRniSnuli nawili.
saerTaSoriso statistikuri standartebis mixedviT ekonomikurad aqtiuri
mosaxleobis yvelaze xSirad gamoyenebuli saxelwodebaa samuSao Zala.
ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleoba moicavs or kategorias: dasaqmebulebs da
umuSevrebs.
dasaqmebuli (momuSave) – piri, romelic gamokiTxvis momentis wina 7 dRis
ganmavlobaSi muSaobda (sul mcire, erTi saaTi mainc) Semosavlis (xelfasis,
naturaluri Semosavlis, mogebis da a.S.) miRebis mizniT, exmareboda usasyidlod
sxva Sinameurneobis wevrebs, an raime mizeziT ar imyofeboda samuSaoze, Tumca
formalurad iricxeboda momuSaved.
dasaqmebis cneba uSualodaa dakavSirebuli warmoebis sazRvrebTan, romelic
ganmartebulia erovnul angariSTa sistemiT (eas).2 aRniSnuli midgomis Tanaxmad
dasaqmebulebs miekuTvnebian pirebi, romlebic qmnian produqcias (saqonels,
momsaxurebas) warmoebis sazRvrebSi. aqedan gamomdinare, dasaqmebis da warmoebis
maCveneblebi (kategoriebi) urTierTSesadari sidideebia, rac maTi erToblivi
analizis saSualebas iZleva.
rac Seexeba dasaqmebis kriteriumad kviraSi sul cota erTi saaTis muSaobas,
gamowveulia imiT, rom qveyanaSi arsebobs dasaqmebis mravali moklevadiani,
SemTxveviTi da sxva araregularuli saxeobebi, romelTa aRricxva aucilebelia

1 saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004-2005. Tb., 2005. gv. 26

2 ix.: Tavi 9

7
ekonomikaSi maTi wvlilis dasadgenad, rac obieqturad Txoulobs aRniSnuli
kriteriumis gamoyenebas.
dasaqmebuli mosaxleoba Tavis mxriv iyofa daqiravebul, TviTdasaqmebul,
damxmare da gaurkveveli saqmianobis mosaxleobad.
daqiravebuli – piri, romelic saangariSo periodis ganmavlobaSi asrulebda
gansazRvrul samuSaos xelfasis an sxva saxis anazRaurebis miRebis (fuliT an
naturiT) mizniT. mas aseve miekuTvneba samuSao adgilis mqone magram ar momuSave
piri Svebulebis, avadmyofobis, samuSaodan droebiT daTxovnis an sxva msgavsi
mizezebis gamo.
TviTdasaqmebuli – mesakuTris saqmianoba saangariSo periodSi mogebis an
ojaxuri Semosavlis (fuliT an naturiT) miRebis mizniT.
damxmare – sxva Sinameurneobis wevrebisTvis usasyidlod momuSave piri.
gaurkveveli – Sromis bazris statistikaSi statusiT gaurkveveli _
aRiricxebian pirebi, romelTa samuSaos saxe dauzustebelia, maT Sesaxeb
arsebuli informacia ar aris sakmarisi imisaTvis, rom isini mivakuTvnoT
CamoTvlili statusis romelime kategorias.
statusis mixedviT mosaxleobis struqtura da garkveuli periodis
ganmavlobaSi am struqturaSi momxdari Zvrebi mosaxleobis
socialur_ekonomikuri struqturaSi momxdari cvlilebebis analizis
mniSvnelovan saSualebas warmoadgens.
statusis mixedviT mosaxleobis klasifikacia warmoebs maTi statusis
mixedviT ZiriTad samuSaoze. Tu gamokvlevis momentSi adamiani muSaobs kidev sxva
samuSaoze, maSin ganisazRvreba ZiriTadi da meoradi saqmianoba. ZiriTadad
iTvleba is samuSao, romelsac gamosakiTxi piri TviTon Tvlis ZiriTadad
(Semosavlis ZiriTad wyarod). sxva samuSao iTvleba meoradad.
umuSevari – 15 da meti wlis piri, romelsac gamokiTxvis momentis wina 7
dRis ganmavlobaSi ar umuSavia erTi saaTic ki, mzad iyo muSaobisaTvis da eZebda
samuSaos gamokiTxvamde 4 kviris ganmavlobaSi.
umuSevrebis da momuSaveebis zemoTmotanili ganmartebebi dadgenilia e.w.
`mkacri kriteriumiT~. Sso-s standartebiT Sromis bazris Camoyalibebis procesSi
myofi qveynebisaTvis rekomendirebulia umuSevrobis monacemebi gamoqveyndes
`Serbilebuli kriteriumiT~-ac. am kriteriumiT umuSevrad iTvlebian is pirebic,
romlebmac xeli Caiqnies samuSaos povnaze. eseni arian adamianebi, romlebic ar

8
muSaoben, mzad arian muSaobisTvis da surT muSaoba, magram ukve aRar eZeben mas.
cxadia, umuSevarTa raodenobac da donec Serbilebuli kriteriumiT maRali
iqneba mkacri kriteriumiT Sefasebul umuSevrobaze.
umuSevrobis zemoTmotanili ganmartebebi eyrdnoba Sso-is rekomendaciebs
xolo monacemebi mis Sesaxeb miiReba specialurad organizebuli statistikuri
dakvirvebis (Sinameurneobebze dakvirvebis) masalebiT. amas garda umuSevrobis
registracia mimdinareobs dasaqmebis saxelmwifo samsaxurebis mier moqalaqeTa
sacxovrebeli adgilis mixedviT.
sxvaoba 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobas da ekonomikurad aqtiur
mosaxleobas Soris warmoadgens ekonomikurad araaqtiur, anu samuSao Zalis
gareT myof mosaxleobas. ixileT cxrili 1.1.
cxrili 1.1.
saqarTvelos 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis ganawileba
ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT 1997-2008 wlebSi (aTasi kaci)1
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008

sul 15 wlis da
ufrosi asakis
3002,1 3016,8 3026,2 3141,6 3191,0 3239,5 3099,1 3146,9 3627,1
mosaxleoba.
aqedan:
ekonomikurad
2060,2 1972,8 1939,3 2049,2 2113,3 2104,2 2050,8 2041,0 1917,8
aqtiuri
dasaqmebuli, m.S. 1908,5 1728,5 1694,4 1837,2 1877,7 1839,2 1815,0 1783,3 1601,9

daqiravebuli 675,9 724,4 697,6 683,9 654,5 650,9 618,5 600,9 572,4

TviTdasaqmebuli 1123,2 987,1 918,6 1041,2 1135,9 1184,9 1195,2 1180,8 1028,5

gaurkveveli 109,4 17,0 78,4 112,1 87,3 3,4 1,3 1,6 1,1

umuSevari 151,7 244,2 244,9 212,0 235,6 265,0 235,9 257,6 315,8

mosaxleoba
samuSao Zalis 941,9 1044,0 1086,9 1092,3 1077,7 1135,3 1048,4 1105,9 1709,3
gareT

1 saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004-2005. Tb., 2006, gv. 28. saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi

2008. Tb., 2009, gv. 15. Sso-is mkacri kriteriumebiT. SemdgomSi, Tu miTiTebuli ar aris,
monacemebi motanili iqneba mkacri kriteriumebis mixedviT.

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 1.4. mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis da dasaqmebis statistika

dasaqmebisa da umuSevrobis statistikaSi erT-erT mniSvnelovan adgils

ikavebs ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis daxasiaTeba. aRniSnuli daxasiaTeba
moicavs ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis saerTo raodenobis gansazRvras, mis
Semadgenlobas statusis mixedviT rogorc absolutur, ise SefardebiT
(struqturis SefardebiTi sidideebi) sidideebSi, ekonomikurad aqtiuri
mosaxleoba Seiswavleba aseve sqesobriv-asakobriv da regionul WrilSi,
dinamikaSi.
rogorc cxrili 1.1-dan Cans, ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleoba saqarTveloSi
1997-2008 wlebSi 3002,1 aTasidan gaizarda 3627,1 aTasamde, e.i. 120,8%-iT. zrda
mniSvnelovania, miT umetes, rom am periodSi ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis
mniSvnelovani nawili sazRvargareT wavida samuSaos saZebnelad. 2008 wlisTvis
ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis 83,5% Seadgenda dasaqmebuli mosaxleoba,
xolo 16,5% _ umuSevrebi. amave 2008 wlisTvis saqarTvelos samuSao Zalis 43,2%
cxovrobda qalaqad, xolo 56,8% soflad.
mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis donis dasaxasiaTeblad statistikaSi
gamoiyeneba iseTi makroekonomikuri maCvenebeli, rogoricaa: mosaxleobis
ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficienti. is gviCvenebs ekonomikurad aqtiuri
mosaxleobis xvedriT wils (procentebSi) 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis
saerTo ricxovnobaSi da gamoiTvleba ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis
ricxovnobis SefardebiT 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis saerTo
ricxovnobasTan. koeficienti gamoiTvleba formuliT:
Tek.aqt.
K aqt.  .100
T15
(1.1)
sadac: K aqt. - aris mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficienti;

Tek.aqt. _ ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis ricxovnoba;

T15 _ 15 wlis da masze ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis

ricxovnoba.

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 kerZod, 1.1, cxrilis monacemebze dayrdnobiT SegviZlia gaviangariSoT
saqarTvelos mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficientebi rigi wlebis
mixedviT.

2 060, 2
1997 wels :  100 = 68, 6%;
3 002, 1

1 972, 8
1998 wels :  100 = 65, 4% ;
3 016, 8

2 049, 2
2000 wels :  100  65,2% ;
3 141, 6

2 104,2
2002 wels :  100  65,0%;
3 239,5

2 041,0
2004 wels :  100  64,9%;
3 146,9

2023,9
2005 wels : .100  64,0% ;.
3159,9

1917,8
2008 wels : .100  52,9% ;.
3627,1

ganxilul, 1997-2005 wlebSi saqarTveloSi mkafiodaa gamoxatuli ekonomikuri

aqtiurobis donis Semcirebis tendencia. aqtiurobis koeficienti 68,6%-dan 1997
wels TandaTanobiT mcirdeba 64,0%-mde 2005 wlisTvis da 52,9%-mde 2008 wlisTvis.
saqarTvelos statistika ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT ganixilavs ara
marto 15 wlis da ufrosi, aramed 25 welze ufrosi asakis mosaxleobasac.
ekonomikurad araaqtiuri, anu mosaxleoba samuSao Zalis gareT moicavs 15
wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobidan invalidebs, pensionerebs, moswavleebs da
sxv. aRniSnuli kategoria SeiZleba davaxasiaToT iseTi statistikuri
maCveneblebiT, rogoricaa: ekonomikurad araaqtiuri mosaxleobis ricxovnoba,misi
xvedri wili 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobaSi, ricxovnobis da xvedri
wilis dinamika, struqtura, ori periodis ganmavlobaSi momxdari struqturuli
Zvrebi.

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 zemoT motanili monacemebiT ekonomikurad araaqtiuri mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba saqarTveloSi 1997-2008 wlebSi 941,9 aTasidan gaizarda 1709,3 aTasamde,
e.i. 181,5%-iT.
mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis donis sapirispirod SeiZleba
gamovTvaloT `ekonomikuri pasiurobis~ donis maxasiaTebeli, kerZod, `ekonomikuri
pasiurobis~ koeficienti, romelic gamoiTvleba samuSao Zalis gareT myofi
mosaxleobis ricxovnobis SefardebiT 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis
ricxovnobasTan, gamosaxuli procentebSi.

Tek.pas.
K pas.  .100
T15
(1.2)
sadac: K pas. - aris mosaxleobis `ekonomikuri pasiurobis~ koeficienti;

Tek.pas. - samuSao Zalis gareT myofi mosaxleoba.

cxrili 1.1-is monacemebze dayrdnobiT gaangariSebuli `ekonomikuri
pasiurobis~ koeficientebi saqarTveloSi 1997-2008 wlebSi tolia:

941, 9
1997 wels :  100  31, 4% ;
3002, 1

1044, 0
1998 wels :  100  34, 6% ;
3016, 8

1092, 3
2000 wels :  100  34, 8% ;
3141, 6

1135, 3
2002 wels :  100  35, 0% ;
3239, 5

1105, 9
2004 wels :  100  35, 1% ;
3146, 9

1136,1
2005 wels : .100  36,0% ;.
3159,9

12
 1709,3
2008 wels : .100  47,1% ;.
3627,1

ganxilul periodSi naTladaa gamokveTili saqarTveloSi mosaxleobis

`ekonomikuri pasiurobis~ donis zrdis tendencia, rac logikuria, ramdenadac is
mimdinareobs ekonomikuri aqtiurobis donis dacemis pirobebSi imave 1997-2008
wlebSi.
ramdenadac 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleoba iyofa ekonomikurad
aqtiur da pasiur nawilebad, aqtiurobis da pasiurobis koeficientebs erTi da
igive mniSvneli aqvT. Sesabamisad mocemuli maCveneblebis jami 100,0%-is tolia:
K aqt.  K pas.  100% .
(1.3)
Sesabamisad, Tu cnobilia erTis mniSvneloba, SeiZleba gaangariSebis gareSe
gavigoT meores mniSvneloba:

K aqt.  100%  K pas. da

(1.4)

K pas.  100%  K aqt. .

(1.5)

ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis mniSvnelovan nawils rogorc

raodenobrivad, ise socialur-ekonomikuri mniSvnelobiT warmoadgens dasaqmebuli
mosaxleoba. dasaqmeba gansazRvravs mosaxleobis Semosavlebs da Sesabamisad
cxovrebis dones. misi zrda iwvevs umuSevrobis Semcirebas da Sesabamisad –
qveyanaSi arsebuli socialuri fonis gaumjobesebas. aqedan gamomdinare
statistikas dasaqmebis Seswavlis kuTxiT mniSvnelovani amocanebis Sesruleba
akisria. kerZod saWiroa ganisazRvros: dasaqmebulTa mTliani ricxovnoba da misi
ganawileba dasaqmebis statusis, ekonomikis seqtorebis, ekonomikuri saqmianobis
saxeebis (dargebis), dakavebuli Tanamdebobebis mixedviT da igive WrilSi
Seiswavleba meoradi dasaqmeba.
dasaqmeba ganixileba sqesobriv-asakobriv, aseve regionul da qalaqi-sofeli
WrilSi. Sinameurneobebis kvlevis masalebis dajgufeba saSualebas iZleva
dadgindes da gaanalizdes dasaqmebis donis, dinamikis da struqturuli Zvrebis

13
tendenciebi. saqarTvelos statistika jerovan yuradRebas uTmobs meoradad
(araZiriTadad, SeTavsebiT) dasaqmebulTa statistikur aRricxvas da analizs,
romelic moicavs igive niSnebis registracias, rac xdeba ZiriTadi dasaqmebis
SemTxvevaSi.
mosaxleobis dasaqmebis statistikaSi ZiriTad maCvenebels warmoadgens
dasaqmebis done. dasaqmebis done xasiaTdeba mosaxleobis dasaqmebis
koeficientiT, romelic miiReba dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis SefardebiT
ekonomikurad aqtiur mosaxleobasTan da gamoisaxeba procentebSi. dasaqmebis
koeficienti gamoiTvleba rogorc:
Tdas.
K das.  .100
Tek. aqt.
( 1.6)
sadac: K das. - aris mosaxleobis dasaqmebis koeficienti;

Tdas. - dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis ricxovnoba.

dasaqmebuli da ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis ricxovnobis Sesaxeb

monacemebi motanilia cxrili 1.1-Si, romlebze dayrdnobiTac SegviZlia
gamovTvaloT dasaqmebis koeficientebi wlebis mixedviT, kerZod:
1908,2
1997 wels:  100  92,6% ;
2060,2

1728,5
1998 wels:  100  87,6% ;
1972,8

1694,4
1999 wels:  100  87,4%;
1939,3

1837,2
2000 wels:  100  89,7%;
2049,2

1877,7
2001 wels:  100  88,9%;
2113,3

1839,2
2002 wels:  100  87,4%;
2104,2

14
 1815,0
2003 wels:  100  88,5%;
2050,8

1783,3
2004 wels:  100  87,3%;
2041,0

1744,6
2005 wels:  100  86,2%. ;
2023,9

1601,9
2008 wels: .100  83,5%
1917,8

rogorc vxedavT dasaqmebis doneebis variaciis gamo Znelia calsaxad imis

Tqma Tu ra tendenciiT xasiaTdeba dasaqmeba saqarTveloSi: zrdiT Tu klebiT,
ramdenadac maCveneblis klebas mohyveba zrda da piriqiT. magram Tu doneebs
gamovTvliT rogorc ori wlis doneebis saSualo ariTmetikuls, e.i. mivmarTavT
dinamikuri mwkrivis mosworebas, maSin miviRebT dinamikuri mwkrivis mosworebul
doneebs ori wlis mixedviT da aRmoCndeba, rom maCveneblebi stabilurad
mcirdeba.

1997-1998 wels – 90,1%;

1999-2000 wels – 88,6%;

2001-2002 wels – 88,2%;

2003-2004 wels – 87,9%;

2005 wels _ 86,2%;

2008 wels _ 83,5%.

aqedan gamomdinare, SeiZleba calsaxad iTqvas, rom 1997-2008 wlebSi

dasaqmebis done saqarTveloSi Semcirebis tendenciiT xasiaTdeba.

dasaqmebuli mosaxleoba statusis mixedviT iyofa daqiravebul da

TviTdasaqmebul mosaxleobad. dasaqmebulTa aRniSnuli kategoriebis
dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba maTi ricxovnebis, dinamikisa da struqturis
maCveneblebi. dasaqmebulebs miekuTvneba agreTve gaurkveveli saqmianobis pirebi.

15
absoluturi monacemebi aRniSnuli kategoriebis ricxovnobis Sesaxeb mocemulia
1.1 cxrilSi, saidanac irkveva, rom daqiravebiT dasaqmebulTa ricxovnoba
saqarTveloSi 1997-2008 wlebSi Semcirda 675,9 aTasidan 572,4 aTasamde, e.i. 15,3%-iT
(zrdis tempi tolia 84,7%-is), TviTdasaqmebulTa ricxvi Semcirda 1123,2 aTasidan
1028,5 aTasamde, e.i. 8,4%-iT, xolo gaurkveveli saqmianobis pirTa ricxvi 109,4
aTasidan _ 1,1 aTasamde. vfiqrobT, rom aRniSnuli maCvenebeli gvixasiaTebs ara
marto am kategoriis dasaqmebulTa ricxovnobis Semcirebas, aramed statistikuri
dakvirvebis sizustis xarisxis zrdasac, ramdenadac ganxilul, 1997-2008 wlebSi
moxda dasaqmebulTa gaurkveveli saqmianobis dazusteba da Sesabamisad maTi
adekvaturi aRricxva.
dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis struqtura statusis mixedviT gvixasiaTebs
calkeuli kategoriis dasaqmebulTa xvedriT wils procentebSi dasaqmebuli
mosaxleobis mTlian ricxovnobaSi. Sesabamisi maCveneblebi 1997-2008 wlebSi
saqarTveloSi Semdeg suraTs iZleva:1
wlebi 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008

sul dasaqmebulebi 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

maT Soris:

daqiravebulebi 35,4 41,9 41,2 37,3 34,9 35,4 34,0 33,7 34,4 35,7

TviTdasaqmebulebi 58,9 57,1 54,2 56,7 60,5 64,4 65,9 66,2 65,5 64,2

gaurkveveli 5,7 1,0 4,6 6,0 4,6 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1

monacemebi gviCvenebs dasaqmebis struqturaSi momxdar Zvrebs, rac imaSi

gamoixateba, rom ganxiluli periodis manZilze mniSvnelovnad izrdeba
TviTdasaqmebulTa xvedri wili, odnav mcirdeba daqiravebiT dasaqmebulTa xvedri
wili da mniSvnelovnad mcirdeba gaurkveveli saqmianobis mqone pirTa xvedri
wili.
dasaqmebulTa ganawileba ekonomikis seqtorebis mixedviT moicavs
dasaqmebulTa ganawilebas ekonomikis saxelmwifo da arasaxelmwifo seqtorebSi.
ekonomikis saxelmwifo seqtori Tavis mxriv iyofa saxelmwifo sakuTrebis
sawarmoebad da sabiujeto organizaciebad an dawesebulebebad. arasaxelmwifo

1
gamoTvlilia cxrili 1.1-is safuZvelze, procentebSi

16
seqtori Tavis mxriv iyofa arasaxelmwifo sakuTrebis sawarmoebad da ucxoeTis
an erTobliv sawarmo-organizaciebad.
cxrili 1..2
dasaqmebulebis ganawileba ekonomikis seqtorebis mixedviT

saqarTveloSi 1998-2008 wlebSi1

absoluturad (aTasi kaci) procentebSi

sul maT Soris: sul maT Soris:

dasaqmebulia dasaqmebulia
wlebi saxelmwifo arasaxel- saxelmwifo arasaxel-
ekonomikaSi ekonomikaSi

seqtorSi mwifo seqtorSi mwifo

seqtorSi seqtorSi

1998 1731 530 1201 100,0 30,6 69,4

1999 1733 469 1264 100,0 27,1 72,9

2000 1839 476 1363 100,0 25,9 74,1

2001 1878 450 1428 100,0 24,0 76,0

2002 1839 422 1417 100,0 22,9 77,1

2003 1814 409 1406 100,0 22,5 77,5

2004 1873 407 1376 100,0 22,8 77,2

2005 1745 401 1344 100,0 23,0 77,0

dasaqmebis struqturaSi mimdinare Zvrebi gviCvenebs sabazro ekonomikaze

gardamavali qveynis damaxasiaTebel tendencias, rac arasaxelmwifo seqtorSi
dasaqmebulTa xvedri wilis zrdaSi gamoixateba.
dasaqmebulTa ganawileba ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebis (dargebis)
mixedviT motanilia cxril 1.3-Si.

1
saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli 2005, Tb., 2006, gv. 54.
saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli 2006, Tb., 2007, gv. 45

17
 cxrilSi motanilia dasaqmebulTa ganawileba ekonomikuri saqmianobis im
saxeebis mixedviT, romlebSic 2005 wels aRiricxa dasaqmebulTa saerTo ricxvis
3 da meti procenti.

cxrili 1.3
dasaqmebulTa ganawileba ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebis (dargebis
mixedviT) saqarTveloSi 1999-2008 wlebSi.1 procentulad
1999 2001 2003 2004 2005 2007

dasaqmebulebi, sul, maT Soris: 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

soflis meurneoba, nadiroba

da satyeo meurneoba 52,1 52,7 54,9 54,0 54,3 53,4

damamuSavebeli mrewveloba 6,4 5,4 4,9 5,1 5,1 4,9

vaWroba, avtomobilebis,

sayofacxovrebo nawarmisa da piradi

moxmarebis sagnebis remonti
8,9 10,0 10,9 11,0 10,8 9,9
transporti da kavSirgabmuloba
4,0 4,4 4,2 4,2 4,0 4,2
saxelmwifo mmarTveloba
6,2 5,6 5,0 4,9 4,7 3,8
ganaTleba
8,0 7,4 7,5 7,5 7,5 7,3
janmrTelobis dacva da socialuri
4,5 4,5 2,7 3,1 3,3 3,5
daxmareba
9,9 10,0 9,9 10,2 10,3 13,0
danarCeni

1
saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004-2005. Tb, 2005, gv. 37. statistikuri weliwdeuli 2008.
Tb., 2009, gv. 44-45.

18
 SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saqarTvelos dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis dargobrivi
struqtura 1999-2008 wlebSi praqtikulad ucvlelia.
2008 wlisTvis dasaqmebulTa 46,6% qalia, 53,4% kaci, 36,8% modis qalaqis
mosaxleobaze, 63,2% soflis mosaxleobaze.1
dasaqmebulTa ganawileba dakavebuli Tanamdebobis mixedviT motanilia
cxril 1.4–Si sqesis da qalaqi-soflis mixedviT procentebSi.
cxrili 1.4
dasaqmebulTa ganawileba dakavebuli Tanamdebobebis
mixedviT saqarTveloSi 2005 wels1 procentulad.
qalaqi sofeli sul qalebi kacebi

marTvis organoebis
7,4 1,2 3,4 1,9 4,8
xelmZRvanelebi

umaRlesi donis kvalificiuri

23,6 4,4 11,2 14,6 8,2
specialistebi

saSualo donis kvalificiuri

specialistebi
12,5 2,9 6,3 8,1 4,6
sakancelario saqmiT da
2,2 0,6 1,2 1,7 0,6
aRricxviT dakavebuli pirebi

momsaxurebis sferoSi
20,5 5,0 10,5 11,4 9,7
dasaqmebulebi

soflis meurneobis muSakebi

8,8 77,5 53,1 56,9 49,8
warmoebis kvalificiuri muSakebi

operatorebi, memanqaneebi 10,1 2,9 5,4 1,6 9,0

meaparateebi

arakvalificiuri muSebi 5,7 2,3 3,5 0,1 6,6

1
saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2008. Tb, 2009, gv. 17-18.
1
cxrili Sedgenilia: saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004-2005, Tb, 2005, gv. 42, 46.
2008 wlisTvis aRniSnuli monacemebi ar gamoqveynda.

19
sxva 9,0 3,2 5,3 3,7 6,7

sul 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,0 0,0

100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

dasaqmebulTa ganawileba dakavebuli Tanamdebobebis, anu rac igivea, Sromis

procesSi Sesrulebuli funqciis mixedviT gviCvenebs am funqciebis garkveul
polarizacias qalaqi-sofelis da sqesis mixedviT. aRniSnuli iqidan Cans, rom
garda soflis meurneobis muSakebisa, yvela Tanamdebobrivi pozicia qalaqSi
ufro meti xvedri wiliT aris warmodgenili. Sromis garkveuli danawileba
SeiniSneba sqesis mixedviTac. xvedri wilis SedarebiT maRali maCvenebliT
gamoirCevian kacebi: marTvis organoebis xelmZRvanelobaSi, warmoebis
kvalificiur muSakebSi, arakvalificiur muSebSi, operatorebSi, memanqaneebSi,
meaparateebSi. danarCen proziciebSi, rogoricaa: umaRlesi da saSualo donis
kvalificiuri specialistebi, soflis meurneobis muSakebi da sxva Warbobs
qalebis xvedri wili.
saqarTvelos statistikaSi mTlianad dasaqmebasTan erTad didi mniSvneloba
eniWeba daqiravebiT dasaqmebulTa statistikur Seswavlas igive niSnebis mixedviT,
rogoricaa saerTod dasaqmebulTa Seswavlis SemTxvevaSi, ramdenadac
dasaqmebulTa aRniSnuli kategoriis absoluturi da SefardebiT zrda sabazro
ekonomikaze gadasvlis piroba da imavdroulad Sedegicaa.
meoradad dasaqmeba (SeTavseba) dRevandel saqarTveloSi mniSvnelovan rols
asrulebs. jer erTi, paradoqsulia, Tumca faqtia, rom umuSevrobis pirobebSi
adgili aqvs samuSao Zalis deficits. magram laparakia ara raodenobriv, aramed
kvalificiuri, dRevandeli samecniero-teqnologiuri revoluciis moTxovnebisadmi
adekvaturi donis samuSao Zalaze. Sesabamisad maRalkvalificiuri samuSao Zalis
deficitis pirobebSi aseTi kvalificiis samuSao Zalis meoradad dasaqmeba
saWirocaa da aucilebelic. meore-meoradad dasaqmeba ojaxis biujetis Sevsebis
garkveuli wyaroa da meoradad dasaqmebis ZiriTadi mizezi.
meoradad dasaqmebis dones gansazRvravs masze moTxovna, e.i vakanturi
adgilebis arseboba. meoradad dasaqmebis statistikuri analizi mimdinareobs
saerTod dasaqmebis statistikuri analizis identurad, ramdenadac es
SesaZlebelia arsebuli statistikuri informaciis pirobebSi.

20
 arsebuli monacemebiT 2005 wels saqarTveloSi aRiricxa 146,2 aTasi meoradad
dasaqmebuli (2004 welTan SedarebiT 8 aTasiT naklebi). maTgan 47,2% _ qalia, 52,8%
_ kaci, qalaqSi dasaqmebulia maTi mxolod 23,6%, soflad _ 76,4%.
amave 2005 wels meoradad dasaqmebulTa udidesi nawili, 67,6% dasaqmebulia
soflis meurneobaSi, metyeveobasa da TevzWeraSi da mxolod 2,7% _ mrewvelobaSi.
aRniSnuli dabali procenti SeiZleba avxsnaT rogorc mrewvelobis `CamorCeniT”
soflis meurneobisgan, Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom 2005 wels mrewvelobaze modis
saqarTvelos mTliani Sida produqtiis 12,2, xolo soflis meurneobaze, 14,8%.
magram aseTi sxvaoba rogorc Cans gamowveulia mrewvelobis mier soflis
meurneobasTan SedarebiT maRalkvalificiuri kadrebis moTxovniT, romelTa
miwodeba SezRudulia, an kidev mrewvelobaSi meoradi dasaqmebis vakansiebi
naklebia samuSao adgilebis sruli aTvisebis gamo.

1.5. mosaxleobis umuSevrobis statistika

umuSevroba warmoadgens umniSvnelovanes socialur, biznes_ekonomikur,

makroekonomikur maCvenebels. umuSevrobis statistika Seiswavlis umuSevarTa
ricxvs, umuSevrobis dones sqesis, asakis, qalaqisa da soflis, regionebis
mixedviT.
umuSevrobis dones vaxasiaTebT umuSevrobis koeficientiT, romelic
gamoiTvleba mocemul wels umuSevarTa ricxvis SefardebiT ekonomikurad aqtiur
mosaxleobasTan da gamoisaxeba procentebSi. kerZod:

TumuS.
K umuS.  .100 (1.7)
Tek. aqt.

sadac K umuS. _ aris umuSevrobis koeficienti;

TumuS. _ umuSevrebis ricxvi.

Sinameurneobebis gamokvleviT 2008 wels saqarTveloSi aRricxuli iyo 315,8

aTasi umuSevari, romelTagan 75,7% cxovrobda qalaqad, 24,3% _ soflad.
Sesabamisi gamoTvlebiT, 2008 wels umuSevrobis done qalaqad tolia 28,9%-is,
soflad 7,0%-is, e.i. umuSevrobis doneebs Soris sxvaoba 4-magze metia. SedarebiT
naklebia sxvaoba qalebis da kacebis umuSevrobis doneebs Soris. kerZod, amave

21
2008 wels man qalebSi Seadgina 16,1% xolo kacebSi – 16,8%. amave wels
umuSevroba mTlianad qveyanaSi saSualod 16,5%-is tolia. aRniSnuli koeficienti
cxrili 13.1-ze dayrdnobiT gaviangariSioT 2008 wlisTvis

315,8
K umuS.  .100  16,5%
1917,8

dasaqmebis da umuSevrobis maCveneblebis jami 100%-is tolia. Sesabamisad, Tu

cnobilia erTi maTgani, iolad gamovTvliT meoresac.
umuSevrobis done saqrTveloSi ganicdis mniSvnelovan diferenciacias
regionebis mixedviT. movitanoT Sesabamisi maCveneblebi ranJirebuli Semcirebis
mimarTulebiT 2004 wlisTvis 1, procentebiT.
saqarTvelo sul 12,6
maT Soris:

q. Tbilisi 26,0 qvemo qarTli 8,1

aWaris ar 17,6 samegrelo-zemo svaneTi 7,6

mcxeTa –mTianeTi 14,4 kaxeTi 5,2

Sida qarTli 10,9 samcxe-javaxeTi 4,0

imereTi, raWa-leCxumi guria 3,4

da qvemo svaneTi 10,5

rogorc ukve zemoT aRvniSneT, dasaqmebis saxelmwifo samsaxuri awarmoebs

umuSevarTa registracias. misi monacemebiT, 2004 wlisTvis saqarTveloSi adgili
hqonda Semdeg mdgomareobas, Sesabamisi maCveneblebiT:

1. registrirebuli samuSaos maZieblebi, (aTasi kaci) 47,9

2. registrirebuli umuSevrebi, aTasi kaci 46,6

3. maT Soris qali, aTasi kaci 23,0

4 maT Soris qali, procentulad 49,0

5. Semweobis mimRebi umuSevarTa ricxvi, aTasi kaci 2,1

6. saSualoTviuri Semweoba, gacemuli erT umuSevarze,

1
saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli 2005. Tb.,2006,gv.62-64. momdevno wlebSi aRniSnuli
maCveneblebi ar gamoqveynda.

22
 lari 19,7

7. registrirebuli vakansiebi, aTasi 0,7

8. umuSevarTa raodenoba erT vakansiaze 66

9. dasaqmebis samsaxuris mier dasaqmebuli samuSaos

maZieblebi, aTasi kaci 4,0

10. registrirebul umuSevarTa ganawileba asakis mixedviT:

absolutur sidideebSi, aTasi kaci struqtura, procentulad

sul umuSevrebi _ 46,6 100,0

maT Soris asaki:

16-29 _ 5,6 12,0

30-49 _ 34,4 73,8

50 da meti _ 6,6 14,2

11. registrirebul umuSevarTa ganawileba ganaTlebis donis mixedviT

absolutur sidideebSi, aTasi kaci struqtura procentulad

umuSevari sul _ 46,6 100,0

maT Soris aqvT

ganaTleba:

dawyebiTi an sabazo _ 0,0 0,0

arasruli saSualo _ 0,5 1,1

sruli saSualo _ 30,1 64,6

umaRlesi _ 16,0 34,3

rogorc vxedavT, Sinameurneobebis gamokvlevebis da dasaqmebis saxelmwifo

samsaxuris monacemebi umuSevrobis dasaxasiaTeblad maCvenebelTa sakmaod farTe
speqtris gamoTvlis saSualebas iZleva. dasaqmebis saxelmwifo samsaxuris
monacemebSi cxadad Cans, rom didia umuSevarTa aRuricxaobis done, ramdenadac

23
dabalia misadmi ndobis xarisxi. cxadia, rom dasaqmebis saxelmwifo samsaxuris
qmedunarianobis amaRlebis SemTxvevaSi is SeiZleba gaxdes umuSevrobis
statistikis mniSvnelovani sainformacio baza.
samuSao Zalis ricxovnobis da misi formirebis, aseve samuSao Zalis
ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT dasaqmebis maCveneblebze dayrdnobiT
dgeba samuSao Zalis balansi, romelic gvixasiaTebs arsebul samuSao Zalas da
mis gamoyenebas.

1.6. samuSao Zalis moZraobis statistika

ekonomikuri saqmianobis procesSi adgili aqvs sawarmo-dawesebulebebSi da

organizaciebSi dasaqmebuli samuSao Zalis moZraobas. saqme isaa, rom rogorc
wesi, garkveuli mosazrebebidan gamomdinare adamianebi icvlian samuSao adgils,
mimdinareobs samuSaoze miRebis da ganTavisuflebis uwyveti procesi, romelic
warmoadgens samuSao Zalis moZraobas. aRniSnuli procesis Sedegad adgili aqvs
samuSao Zalis gadanawilebas sawarmoebs, dargebs da regionebs Soris.
Teoriulad es procesebi SeiZleba mimdinareobdes erovnul ekonomikaSi
dasaqmebulTa saerTo ricxovnobis ucvlelobis pirobebSic.
samuSao Zalis moZraoba aris obieqturi procesi da mimdinareobs uwyvetad.
misi gamomwvevi mizezebi SeiZleba iyos mravalnairi: pensiaze gasvla, armiaSi
gawveva, samuSao asakSi Sesvla, ojaxis Seqmna da Sesabamisad sacxovrebeli
adgili Secvla, axali samuSao adgilebis Seqmna, ukeTesi samuSaos povna, SromiTi
konfliqtebi, gardacvaleba da sxva.
samuSao Zalis moZraobis statistikis amocanebia daaxasiaTos samuSao Zalis
moZraobis saerTo moculoba, misi mimarTulebebi, intensivoba, gamomwvevi mizezebi.
dasmuli amocanebis gadasawyvetad samuSao Zalis statistikaSi gamoiTvleba
absoluturi da SefardebiTi sidideebi. absolutur sidideebs miekuTvneba
garkveul periodSi samuSaoze miRebulTa da samuSaodan wasulebis ricxvi.
miRebulTa da wasulebis ricxvis jams ewodeba samuSao Zalis brunva. Sesabamisad,
samuSao Zalis brunva gamoiTvleba samuSaoze miRebis da wasvlis mixedviT.
samuSaodan wasvlis mixedviT samuSao Zalis brunva iyofa aucilebel da
zedmet brunvad.

24
 samuSao Zalis aucilebel brunvas miekuTvneba samuSaodan wasvla iseTi
mizezebiT, rogoricaa magaliTad: pensiaze gasvla, gardacvaleba, SromiTi
xelSekrulebis (kontraqtis) damTavreba da kanoniT gaTvaliswinebuli sxva
SemTxvevebi: samxedro samsaxurSi gawveva, dainvalideba, Statebis Semcireba
sawarmos reorganizaciis an gakotrebis Sedegad da sxva.
samuSao Zalis zedmet brunvas miakuTvneben samuSaodan sakuTari surviliT,
disciplinis darRvevis da SromiTi konfliqtebis Sedegad wasulebs. samuSao
Zalis zedmeti brunva cnobilia kadrebis (samuSao Zalis) denadobis saxeliTac
da warmoebis efeqtian funqcionirebaze uaryofiTad moqmedebs, ramdenadac
saWiroa wasulebis Secvla aranaklebi kvalifikaciis mqone samuSao ZaliT rac
dros moiTxovs. Sesabamisad adgili eqneba samuSao drois dakargvas mocemul
periodSi. axali kadrebis miReba moiTxovs maT adaptacias da integracias
mocemul sawarmoSi, rac aseve garkveul fsiqologiur barierebTan aris
dakavSirebuli. amasTan is danaxarjebi. romelic (Tu) gaswia sawarmom wasuli
muSakebis kvalifikaciis asamaRleblad, ubralod ikargeba.
Sesabamisad, saWiro statistikuri informaciis arsebobis pirobebSi samuSao
Zalis moZraobis maCveneblebi SeiZleba gamoTvlili iqnes sawarmos, dargis,
erovnuli ekonomikis, regionebis WrilSi sqesis, asakis, profesiebis, ganaTlebis
donis da sxva niSnebis mixedviT, romelTagan umniSvnelovanesia samuSao Zalis
denadoba mizezebis mixedviT. samuSao Zalis denadobis sulyofili analizi
SeiZleba miRebuli iqnes mxolod misi kompleqsuri statistikur-sociologiuri
gamokvlevis safuZvelze. kerZod, samuSao Zalis denadobis statistikuri,
raodenobrivi analizi Seivseba denadobis mizezebis siRrmiseuli sociologiuri
SeswavliT, Sesabamisi sociologiuri gamokiTxviT, am mizniT Sedgenili kiTxvaris
safuZvelze, romliTac gamoikiTxebian samuSaodan wasulebi. gansakuTrebuli
yuradReba unda mieqces SromiTi konfliqtebis Sedegad gamowveul samuSao Zalis
denadobas.
samuSao Zalis moZraobis statistikuri daxasiaTeba SeuZlebelia momuSaveTa
siobrivi da saSualo siobrivi ricxvis codnis gareSe. sawarmoSi momuSaveTa
siobriv ricxvSi aRiricxeba yvela, vinc mocemul sawarmoSi muSaobs erT dReze
meti xniT. momuSaveTa saSualo siobrivi ricxvi gaiangariSeba Tvis ganmavlobaSi.
amisaTvis Tvis yoveli dRis momuSaveTa siobrivi ricxvis jami gaiyofa Tvis
kalendaruli dReebis ricxvze. arasamuSao da uqme dReebis siobriv ricxvad

25
CaiTvleba maTi wina dRis siobrivi ricxvi. arasruli samuSao Tvis SemTxvevaSi
namuSevari dReebis siobrivi ricxvis jami iyofa aseve Tvis kalendaruli dReebis
ricxvze. Tu monacemebi siobrivi ricxvis Sesaxeb saerTod ar gvaqvs raime Tvis
ganmavlobaSi, maSin am Tvis saSualo siobrivi ricxvi SeiZleba miviRoT rogorc
wina Tvis bolo da momdevno Tvis pirveli dRis siobrivi ricxvis jamis saSualo
ariTmetikuli. momuSaveTa saSualoTviuri siobrivi ricxvis safuZvelze saSualo
ariTmetikulis daxmarebiT gamoiTvleba saSualokvartaluri,
saSualonaxevarwliuri da saSualowliuri siobrivi ricxvi, risTvisac sami, eqvsi
da Tormeti Tvis saSualo siobriv ricxvTa jamebi Sesabamisad gaiyofa
samze,eqvsze da Tormetze.
samuSao Zalis moZraobis maxasiaTebeli statistikur maCvenebelTa sistema
moicavs Semdeg maCveneblebs:
1. absoluturi maCveneblebi:
_ samuSaoze miRebulTa ricxvi;
_ samuSaodan wasulebis ricxvi:
_ samuSao Zalis saerTo brunva _ samuSaoze miRebulebisa da samuSaodan
wasulebis ricxvis jami;
_ mudmivad momuSaveTa ricxvi saangariSo periodSi _ miiReba periodis
dasawyisSi momuSaveTa siobriv ricxvs gamoklebuli mocemul periodSi
samuSaodan wasulebi.
2. SefardebiTi maCveneblebi: gamoiTvlebian konkretuli periodis mixedviT,
rogoricaa Tve, kvartali, naxevari weli, weli.
1. samuSao Zalis mudmivobis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogorc:
mudmivad momuSaveTa ricxvi
K1   100;
momuSaveTa saSualo siobrivi ricxvi
(1.8)

2. samuSao Zalis ganaxlebis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogorc:

samuSaoze miRebulTa ricxvi

K2   100;
momuSaveTa saSualo siobrivi ricxvi
(1.9)

3. samuSao Zalis wasvlis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogorc:

26
 samuSaodan ganTavisuflebulTa ricxvi
K3   100;
momuSaveTa saSualo siobrivi ricxvi
(1.10)

4. samuSao Zalis denadobis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogorc:

samuSaodan sakuTari surviliT wasulebis ricxvi

K4   100; (1.11)
momuSaveTa saSualo siobrivi ricxvi

samuSao Zalis denadobis koeficienti zemoTmotanili formuliT SeiZleba

gamovTvaloT mizezebis mixedviTac, rogoricaa: sakuTari surviliT, disciplinis
darRvevis da SromiTi konfliqtis Sedegad wasulebi. samuSao Zalis denadobis
koeficienti aseve cnobilia rogorc kadrebis denadobis koeficienti.

5. samuSao Zalis saerTo brunvis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogo

samuSaoze miRebulTa da ganTavisuflebulTa ricxvis jami

K5   100;
momuSaveTa saSualo siobrivi ricxvi

(1.12)

samuSao Zalis saerTo brunvis koeficienti ( K 5 ) samuSao Zalis ganaxlebis

( K 2 ) da samuSaodan Zalis wasvlis ( K 3 ) koeficientebis jamis tolia.

6. samuSao Zalis Canacvlebis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogorc:

samuSaoze miRebulTa ricxvi

K6   100;
samuSaodan yvela mizeziT ganTavisuflebulTa ricxvi
( 1.13)

Canacvlebis koeficienti SeiZleba miviRoT samuSao Zalis ganaxlebis

koeficientis ( K 2 ) gayofiT wasvlis koeficientTan ( K 3 );

K6  K2 : K3 .
(1.14)

27
 K 2 da K3 -s mniSvnelSi erTi da igive sidide aqvT: momuSaveTa saSualo

siobrivi ricxvi, romlebic gayofisas erTmaneTs Sekvecavs da miviRebT K 6 -is

gamosaxulebas.

1.7. Sromis anazRaurebis statistika

Sromis anazRaureba, anu xelfasi warmoadgens Sesrulebuli samuSaosaTvis

daricxul anazRaurebas fuladi Tu naturaluri formiT. is moicavs aseve
sxvadasxva saxis waxalisebebs, Svebulebebis, sadResaswauli dReebis da sxva
umuSevari drois anazRaurebas, romlebic SromiTi kanonmdeblobiT an
individualuri SromiTi xelSekrulebiT eqvemdebareba anazRaurebas.

Sromis anazRaurebis statistikis winaSe dgas Semdegi amocanebi:

1. xelfasis fondis moculobis gansazRvra;
2. xelfasis donis da dinamikis analizi;
3. xelfasis diferenciaciis analizi;
4. samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis statistikuri analizi.
xelfasis fondis moculobis gansazRvra. xelfasis fondi warmoadgens
sawarmoebis da organizaciebis mier Sromis anazRaurebisaTvis daricxul Tanxas.
xelfasis fondi moicavs sxvadasxva danamatebsac, rogoricaa premiebi,
anazRaureba avadmyofobis SemTxvevaSi da a.S.
sawarmoebis da organizaciebis xelfasis fondebis jami gvaZlevs dargis
xelfasis fonds, xolo dargebis xelfasis fondebis jami – erovnuli ekonomikis
xelfasis fonds. statistikis mier aRiricxeba xelfasis saaTobrivi, dRiuri da
Tveobrivi fondebi – romlebic ukavSirdeba Sesabamis namuSevar dros. xelfasis
kvartaluri, naxevarwliuri da wliuri fondebi miiReba 3, 6 da 12 Tvis xelfasis
fondebis SekrebiT.
xelfasis fondi mniSvnelovani ekonomikuri kategoriaa, romelze
dayrdnobiTac gaiangariSeba saSualo xelfasis maCveneblebi. is warmoadgens
produqciis TviTRirebulebis Semadgenel nawils. xelfasis fondis absoluturi
moculobis maCveneblebi gamoiyeneba mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis da samuSao
Zalaze danaxarjebis analizisTvis da a.S.

28
 xelfasis donis da dinamikis analizi. xelfasis done xasiaTdeba saSualo
xelfasis maCvenebliT da gaiangariSeba xelfasis fondis SefardebiT namuSevar
drosTan an rogorc wesi dasaqmebulTa ricxvTan.
statistikaSi gamoiTvleba saSualo xelfasis Semdegi maCveneblebi:
saSualo saaTobrivi xelfasi: gamoiTvleba xelfasis saaTobrivi fondis
SefardebiT namuSevari kac-saaTebis raodenobasTan. kac-saaTi warmoadgens
srulad namuSevar erT saaTs.
saSualo dRiuri xelfasi: gamoiTvleba xelfasis dRiuri fondis SefardebiT
namuSevari kac-dReebis raodenobasTan. kac-dRe aris namuSevari erTi dRe. is
moicavs momuSavisgan damoukidebel dRis Siga mocdenebsac.
saSualoTviuri xelfasi: gamoiTvleba xelfasis Tviuri fondis SefardebiT
Tvis ganmavlobaSi dasaqmebulTa ricxvTan. xelfasis Tviuri fondi moicavs yvela
saxis anazRaurebas.
saSualo kvartaluri, naxevarwliuri da wliuri xelfasi: gamoiTvleba
saSualoTviuri xelfasis analogiurad. Tumca gamoTvlebis gasamartiveblad
saqarTvelos saxelmwifo statistikis praqtikaSi dasaqmebulis saSualoTviuri
xelfasis misaRebad saSualowliuri xelfasi gaiyofa 12-ze.
saSualo xelfasi gamoiTvleba formuliT:

f 
F ;
T
( 1.15)
sadac f _ aris saSualo xelfasi;

F _ xelfasis fondi;

T _ dasaqmebulTa ricxvi.

xelfasis fondma saqarTveloSi 2000 wels Seadgina 1596 milioni lari, xolo
dasaqmebulTa ricxvma – 1,8393 milioni. Sesabamisma maCveneblebma 2005 wels
Seadgina 4275,0 milioni lari da 1,7446 milioni dasaqmebuli.

2000 wels erTi dasaqmebulis saSualowliuri xelfasi gaiangariSeba

rogorc:

29
 1596 mln.lari
 867, 7 lars.
1,8393 mln. dasaqmebuli

erTi dasaqmebulis saSualoTviuri xelfasi 2000 wels toli iqneba 867,7 : 12

= 72,3 laris.
analogiuri gaangariSebiT 2005 wlisTvis saqarTveloSi erTi dasaqmebulis
saSualowliurma xelfasma Seadgina 2450,4 lari, xolo saSualoTviurma xelfasma
– 204,2 lari.
xelfasis donis dinamika Seiswavleba indeqsebis saSualebiT. kerZod,
f1
J= .
f0
( 1.16)
mocemuli indeqsis Tanaxmad 2000-2005 wlebSi xelfasis donis zrda
204,2
saqarTveloSi Seadgens 282,4%.  2, 824  100=282,4%.
72,3
xelfasis donis dinamikasTan erTad statistikis mniSvnelovan amocanas
warmoadgens xelfasis donis dinamikaze moqmedi faqtorebis gavlenis gazomva.
saqme isaa, rom erovnul ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulTa xelfasis done yalibdeba
saqmianobis sxvadasxva dargebis saSualo xelfasebis Sedegad. Sesabamisad,
romelime dargSi saSualo xelfasis zrda an Semcireba aisaxeba mTeli ekonomikis
saSualo xelfasis zrdaze an Semcirebaze. meore mxriv, Tu dasaqmebulebSi
gaizrdeba an Semcirdeba maRal (dabal) xelfasian dargSi dasaqmebulTa ricxvi
da xvedri wili, esec gazrdis an Seamcirebs saSualo xelfasis maCvenebels.
Sesabamisad, erovnul ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulTa saSualo xelfasis
cvlilebaze moqmedebs ori faqtori: saSualo xelfasis cvlileba calkeul
dargebSi da dasaqmebulTa ricxvis (xvedri wilis) cvlileba dargebis mixedviT,
e.w. `struqturuli Zvrebi~.
orive faqtoris gavlenas xelfasis doneze vadgenT xelfasis cvalebadi
Semadgenlobis indeqsiT, romelic gamoiTvleba formuliT:

F1 F0 f1
J= : , rac igivea, .
f0
T1 T0
( 1.17)

30
 Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom xelfasis fondi F1 gamomdinare 1.15 formulidan

tolia fT da am gamosaxulebas F-is nacvlad SevitanT 1.17 formulaSi, miviRebT

xelfasis cvalebadi Semadgenlobis indeqss.

f1 T1 f 0 T0
J= : 
T1 T0
( 1.18)
xelfasis saerTo donis cvlilebaze calkeul dargebSi saSualo xelfasis
cvlilebis gavlenas vadgenT xelfasis fiqsirebuli Semadgenlobis indeqsiT.

f1 T1 f 0 T1
J= : 
T1 T1
( 1.19)
xelfasis saerTo donis cvlilebaze dasaqmebis dargobrivi struqturis
cvlilebis gasazomad gamoiyeneba xelfasis struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsi.

T1 f 0 T0 f 0
J= : 
T1 T0
(1.20)
mocemuli indeqsebis gaangariSeba vaCvenoT saqarTvelos samTomopovebiTi da
damamuSavebeli mrewvelobis magaliTze 2000-2005 wlebSi. gamoTvlebisTvis
amosavali monacemebi motanilia 1.5 da 1.6 cxrilebSi. ori qvedargiT
SemovifargleT gamoTvlebis gamartivebis mizniT.

cxrili 1.5

dasaqmebulTa ricxovnoba da saSualoTviuri xelfasi

saqarTvelos mrewvelobaSi 2000-2004 wlebSi

dasaqmebulTa dasaqmebulTa saSualoTviuri

xvedri wili
ricxvi, aTasi xelfasi, lari

2000 T0 2004 T1 D 2000 d 0 2004 D

d1 2000 f0 2004 f1

31
samTomopovebiTi 6,6 3,9 0,057 0,041 119,3 179,5
mrewveloba

damamuSavebeli 109,3 90,8 0,943 0,959 99,3 183,8

mrewveloba

sul mrewveloba 115,9 94,7 1,0 1,0 100,4 183,6

gamoTvlebis Casatareblad cxrilis monacemebze dayrdnobiT saWiroa jer

gaviangariSoT xelfasis fondebi sabaziso ( f 0 T0 ) da mimdinare ( f1 T )
1
periodebisaTvis orive qvedargis da mTlianad mrewvelobisaTvis.
gamoTvlebisaTvis aseve saWiroa mimdinare periodis xelfasis fondis
gaangariSeba sabaziso periodis saSualo xelfasis pirobebSi (f 0 T1 ) . xelfasis
fondebis moculobas ase arapirdapir gamovTvliT imis gamo, rom maTi moculoba
gamoqveynebuli ar aris. Sesabamisi gaangariSebebi motanilia cxrilSi 1.6.

cxrili 1.6

monacemebi xelfasis indeqsebis gasaangariSeblad

saqarTveloSi 2000-2004 wlebSi lari

f 0 T0 f 0 T1 f1 T1

samTomopovebiTi mrewveloba 787 380 465 270 700 050

damamuSavebeli mrewveloba 10 853 490 9 016 440 16 689 040

sul mrewveloba 11 640 870 9 481 710 17 389 090

zemoTmotanili monacemebis safuZvelze gamovTvliT xelfasis cvalebadi

Semadgenlobis indeqss:

f1 T1 f 0 T0 17 389 090

J= :  :
11 640 870

183,6
 182, 8%.
115 900 100,4
T1 T0 94 200

32
 miRebuli indeqsi niSnavs, rom saSualo xelfasis zrdis tempma saqarTvelos
mrewvelobaSi 2000-2004 wlebSi Seadgina 182,8%. aRniSnuli zrda gamowveulia
samTomopovebiT da damamuSavebel mrewvelobaSi xelfasis donis zrdiT da
dasaqmebis struqturaSi momxdari ZvrebiT.

TiToeul dargSi xelfasis donis cvlilebis gavlenas mrewvelobaSi

dasaqmebulTa xelfasis saerTo donis cvlilebaze vadgenT xelfasis
fiqsirebuli Semadgenlobis indeqsiT:

f1 T1 f 0 T1 17 389 090

J= :  :
9 481 710

183,6
 183, 4%.
94 700 100,1
T1 T1 94 700

saqarTvelos mrewvelobaSi xelfasis donis cvlilebaze 2000-2004 wlebSi

dasaqmebis struqturaSi momxdari cvlilebebis gavlenas vadgenT xelfasis
struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsiT:

T1 f 0 T0 f 0
J= :  9 481 710 11 640 870
: 
100,4
 0,997, e.i. 99,7%.
94 700 115 900 100,4
T1 T0

Cvens mier zemoTCatarebuli gamoTvlebiT aRmoCnda, rom

1. xelfasis cvalebadi Semadgenlobis indeqsi Seadgens 182,8%;

2. xelfasis fiqsirebuli Semadgenlobis indeqsi – 183,4%;

3. xelfasis struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsi _ 99,7%.

indeqsebis urTierTkavSiris Tanaxmad:

1,828 = 1,834 • 0,997

Cvens mier Catarebuli gaangariSebebiT aseve aRmoCnda, rom xelfasis

doneebis zrdam calkeul dargebSi dadebiTad imoqmeda xelfasis saerTo donis
zrdaze da rom ara dasaqmebis struqturaSi momxdari uaryofiTi Zvrebi,
romelmac xelfasis done umniSvnelod, 0,3%-iT Seamcira, xelfasis saerTo donis
zrda ufro meti iqneboda. yovel SemTxvevaSi, struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsi

33
saerTod rom ar Secvliliyo da darCeniliyo Turdac 100,0%-is doneze, xelfasis
done saqarTvelos mrewvelobaSi gaizrdeboda 183,4 da ara 182,8%-iT.

struqturuli Zvrebis uaryofiTi Sedegi gamoiwvia im garemoebam, rom

samTomopovebiT mrewvelobaSi, sadac sabaziso periodSi xelfasis done mTeli
20,0%-iT aRemateboda damamuSavebeli mrewvelobis xelfasis dones, dasaqmebulTa
xvedri wili 5,7-dan 4,1-mde, e.i. 1,6%-iT Semcirda. es ki sakmarisi aRmoCnda
struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsis 0,3%-iT Sesamcireblad.

saindeqso analizi saSualebas gvaZlevs davadginoT saSualo xelfasis

absolutur cvlilebaze calkeuli faqtoris gavlena.

Cvens SemTxvevaSi, 2000-2004 wlebSi saSualo xelfasi saqarTvelos

mrewvelobaSi 100,4 laridan 183,6 laramde gaizarda, e.i. absoluturi mateba
tolia 83,2 laris.

mrewvelobaSi saSualo xelfasis absoluturi mateba, gamowveuli

samTomopovebiT da damamuSavebel mrewvelobaSi saSualo xelfasis cvlilebiT,
gaiangariSeba Semdegnairad:

f1 T1 f 0 T1 17 389 090

f =   
9 481 710
 183,6_100,1=83,5 lars.
94 700
T1 T1 94 700

e.i. mocemuli faqtoris gavleniT xelfasi gaizarda 83,5 lariT.

xelfasis absoluturi mateba, gamowveuli calkeul dargebSi dasaqmebulTa

xvedri wilis cvlilebiT gaiangariSeba Semdegnairad:

T f ΣT f0 9 481 710 11 640 870

f = 1 0
 0
   100, 1 - 100, 4 = -0, 3 lars.
T ΣT 94 700 115 900
1 0

Catarebuli analiziT miviReT: 2000-2004 wlebSi saqarTvelos mrewvelobaSi

dasaqmebulTa xelfasis done gaizarda 83,2 lariT, aqedan:

1. samTomopovebiT da damamuSavebel mrewvelobaSi dasaqmebulTa xelfasis

donis cvlilebis gavleniT gaizarda 83,5 lariT;

34
 2. TiToeul dargSi dasaqmebulTa xvedri wilis cvlilebis gavleniT
Semcirda 0,3 lariT; e.i. saerTo mateba, 83,2 lari tolia:

83,2 = 83,5 _ 0,3 lari.

saindeqso analiziT aseve SeiZleba gaviangariSoT mrewvelobaSi xelfasis

fondis cvlileba mimdinare, 2004 wels sabaziso, 2000 welTan SedarebiT.
xelfasis fondis moculoba icvleba sami faqtoris gavleniT:

1. TiToeul dargSi xelfasis saSualo donis cvlilebiT;

2. TiToeul dargSi dasaqmebulTa xvedri wilis cvlilebiT;

3. dasaqmebulTa saerTo ricxvis cvlilebiT.

gaviangariSoT TiToeulis gavlena calk-calke.

1. xelfasis fondis cvlilebaze TiToeul dargSi xelfasis saSualo donis

cvlilebis gavlenas vadgenT formuliT:

ΔF1  f1 T1  f 0 T1  17 389 090  9 481 710  7 907 380 lars;

2. xelfasis fondis cvlileba dasaqmebis struqturis gavleniT gaiangariSeba

Semdegi formuliT:

ΔF2  f 0 T1  f 0 T1  9 481 710  9 507 880  - 26 170 lars;

3. xelfasis fondis cvlilebaze dasaqmebulTa saerTo ricxvis cvlilebis

gavlenas vadgenT Semdegi formuliT:

ΔF3  f 0 T1  f 0 T0  9 507 880  11 640 870  - 2 132 990 lars;

mTlianad xelfasis fondi mrewvelobaSi 2000-2004 wlebSi gaizarda 5 748 220

lariT. aRniSnuli zrda iangariSeba cxrili 1.6 monacemebiT, rogorc
F = f1 T1  F0 T0 . aRniSnuli zrda calkeuli faqtorebis saerTo gavlenis
ΔF
Sedegia. amasTan calkeul dargebSi xelfasis donis zrdam gamoiwvia mrewvelobis
xelfasis fondis zrda 7 907 380 lariT, dasaqmebulTa struqturis cvlilebam –
misi Semcireba 26 170 lariT, xolo dasaqmebulTa ricxvis Semcirebam gamoiwvia
xelfasis fondis Semcireba 2 132 990 lariT. Sesabamisad:

35
 F = ΔF1  ΔF2  ΔF3
ΔF
( 1.21)

e.i. 5 748 220 = 7 907 380 – 26 170 – 2 132 990.

xelfasis diferenciaciis analizi. dasaqmebulis xelfasis sidide

damokidebulia mis ganaTlebaze, kvalifikaciaze, asakze da sxva faqtorebze,
romlebic iwveven dasaqmebuli samuSao Zalis Sromis anazRaurebis
diferenciacias.

xelfasis diferenciacias adgili aqvs makrodonezec, rogoricaa: ekonomikuri

saqmianobis saxeebis da sqesis mixedviT, aseve regionebis mixedviT.

saqarTvelos statistikis komitetis monacemebiT 2005 wlisaTvis ekonomikaSi

dasaqmebulTa saSualoTviuri nominaluri xelfasi Seadgenda 204,2 lars;
mSeneblobaSi – 296,4 lars, jandacvasa da socialur momsaxurebaSi – 99,5 lars,
ganaTlebaSi – 92,5 lars, safinanso saqmianobaSi – 1049,2 lars, saxelmwifo
mmarTvelobaSi – 342,4 lars da a.S.

amave 2005 wels kacebis saSualoTviuri xelfasi toli iyo 267,9 laris,
xolo qalebis 131,1 laris, e.i. 136,8 lariT (orjer da metad) naklebi.
saqarTveloSi istoriulad arsebuli qalis kultis pirobebSi, saxezea maTi
diskriminaciis samarcxvino faqti (lekvi lomisa sworia, Zu iyos Tunda xvadia?).

ekonomikaSi daqiravebiT dasaqmebulTa saSualoTviuri nominaluri xelfasi,

dalagebuli klebadi ranJirebiT 2004 wels saqarTvelos regionebis mixedviT,
Semdeg suraTs iZleva:

saqarTvelo sul 156,8

maT Soris:

q.Tbilisi 218,7 mcxeTa-mTianeTi 89,2

aWaris ar 155,1 guria 89,0

qvemo qarTli 142,8 kaxeTi 83,7

samegrelo-zemo svaneTi 127,2 raWa-leCxumi da

36
 Sida qarTli 112,0 qvemo svaneTi 69,3

imereTi 110,3

samcxe-javaxeTi 103,8

1.8. samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis statistikuri analizi

danaxarjebi samuSao Zalaze warmoadgens sabazro ekonomikis damaxasiaTebel

kategorias. is warmoadgens danaxarjebs, romlebic dakavSirebulia samuSao Zalis
daqiravebasa da uzrunvelyofasTan.
statistikis amocanebia samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis donis, struqturis da
dinamikis dadgena.
samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis done gaizomeba danaxarjebis moculobiT
saSualod erT muSakze gaangariSebiT. saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi aRniSnuli
maCvenebeli 2002 wels 1806,47 laridan 2004 wels gaizarda 2403,4 laramde, xolo
2005 wels – 3051,8 laramde.
samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis struqturis Sesaswavlad saWiroa danaxarjebis
dajgufeba erTgvarovan jgufebad, xolo Semdeg ganisazRvreba TiToeulis xvedri
wili danaxarjebis mTlian jamSi. samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis saerTaSoriso
standartuli klasifikacia moicavs danaxarjebis 10 jgufs:
1. xelfasi;
2. arasamuSao drois anazRaureba;
3. premiebi da saCuqrebi;
4. kveba, sasmelebi da sxva anazRaurebebi naturaluri formiT;
5. danaxarjebi momuSaveTa sacxovrebelze, romelsac Tavis Tavze iRebs
damqiravebeli;
6. damqiraveblis xarjebi socialur uzrunvelyofaze;
7. danaxarjebi profesiul momzadebaze;
8. danaxarjebi socialur momsaxurebaze;
9. sxva danaxarjebi samuSao Zalaze;
10. gadasaxadebi, ganxiluli, rogorc samuSao Zalis danaxarjebi.

37
 samuSao Zalaze gaweuli danaxarjebis struqtura saqarTveloSi 2005 wels
saSualod erT muSakze gaangariSebiT motanilia qvemoT:1

danaxarjebi lari procentulad

saSualo danaxarjebi, maT Soris: 3051,8 100,0

1. xelfasis fondi 2450,8 80,3

2. sawarmos danaxarjebi muSakTa

sacxovrebel binebze 2,2 0,1

3. danaxarjebi kulturul, saganmanaTleblo

gamajansaRebel da sxva RonisZiebebze 0,9 0,0

4. danaxarjebi kadrebis momzadeba-

gadamzadebaze, saswavlo Svebulebebze da sxv. 3,5 0,1

5. socdazRvevis yvela saxis danaricxi

xelfasis fondidan 482,7 15,8

6. sawarmos saxsrebidan gacemuli socialuri

daxmarebis Tanxebi 6,1 0,2

7. samuSao Zalis Senaxvaze gaweuli sxva

danaxarjebi 105,6 3,5

rogorc vxedavT, ZiriTadi danaxarjebi samuSao Zalaze modis xelfasze da

socdazRvevis danaricxebze.
saqarTvelos statistika samuSao Zalaze gaweuli danaxarjebis Sesaxeb
informacias moipovebs da amuSavebs ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviTac.
2005 wels saSualod erT muSakze gaangariSebuli samuSao Zalaze gaweuli
danaxarjebi yvelaze dabalia meTevzeobaSi – 1310,5 lari, ganaTlebaSi – 1350,9
lari, janmrTelobis dacvasa da socialur daxmarebaSi – 1452,7 lari, xolo

1
saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli 2006. Tb., 2007, gv. 55

38
yvelaze maRalia – safinanso saqmianobaSi – 15 445,7 lari da saxelmwifo
mmarTvelobaSi – 5 348,6 lari.

1.9. Sromis nayofierebis statistika

Sromis nayofiereba aris adamianis unari, drois erTeulSi awarmoos

produqciis garkveuli raodenoba. amis mixedviT gaiangariSeben saaTobriv, dRiur,
Tviur, kvartalur da wliur Sromis nayofierebas.
Sromis nayofierebis statistikis amocanebia gansazRvros Sromis
nayofierebis done, dinamika da masze moqmedi faqtorebi.
Sromis nayofierebis done – и gaiangariSeba warmoebuli produqciis
moculobis – q SefardebiT dasaqmebulTa ricxvze, Т. kerZod,
Qq
и= (1.22)
T
mocemuli maCvenebeli aris saSualo sidide da gviCvenebs saSualod erT
dasaqmebulze warmoebuli produqciis moculobas.
Sromis nayofierebis Sebrunebuli maCvenebelia Sromatevadoba, romelic
gamoiTvleba Semdeg formuliT:
QT
t = ,
q
(1.23)

sadac t aris Sromatevadoba;

T - produqciis warmoebaze daxarjuli dro;
q - warmoebuli produqciis moculoba.
Sromis nayofierebis donis dinamikas vaxasiaTebT indeqsebiT.

и1 Qq1 Qq0
J=  : .
и0 T1 T0
(1.24)

Tu mocemul formulaSi SevitanT formula 1.22-idan miRebul q -s

mniSvnelobas, q = и -s, maSin formula 8.24 miiRebs Semdeg saxes:

39
 и  и0 T0
J= 1 1 : .
T0
T1
(1.25)

mocemuli indeqsi aris Sromis nayofierebis cvalebadi Semadgenlobis

indeqsi.

rodesac vzomavT Sromis nayofierebis donis dinamikas, davuSvaT ori an meti

dargisaTvis, maSin maTi saerTo Sromis nayofierebis dinamikaze imoqmedebs ori
faqtori: Sromis nayofierebis doneTa cvlileba TviToeul dargSi da
struqturuli Zvrebi. struqturuli Zvrebis gavlena niSnavs, rom calkeul
dargSi Sromis nayofierebis ucvlelobis pirobebSic ki saerTo Sromis
nayofiereba gaizrdeba, TuU gaizrdeba im dargSi dasaqmebulTa xvedri wili,
romelSic maRalia Sromis nayofiereba.
Sromis nayofierebis cvalebadi Semadgenlobis indeqsze moqmedebs orive
faqtori.
Sromis nayofierebis donis dinamikaze moqmedi faqtorebi calk_calke
gaizomeba Sromis nayofierebis fiqsirebuli da struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsiT.
fiqsirebuli indeqsiT vadgenT saerTo Sromis nayofierebaze TviToeul
dargSi Sromis nayofierebis cvlilebis gavlenas. misi formulaa:
и  и0 T1
J= 1 1 :
T1
T1
(1.26)

struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsiT vadgenT saerTo Sromis nayofierebaze

dasaqmebis dargobrivi struqturis cvlilebis gavlenas. misi formulaa:

 и T0и0
J= 1 0
: .
T0
T1
( 1.27)

Sromis nayofierebis donis, dinamikis da Sromis nayofierebis doneze moqmedi

faqtorebis gavlenis gazomva movaxdinoT saqarTvelos mompovebeli da
damamuSavebeli mrewvelobis magaliTze.

40
 cxrili 1.7

monacemebi saqarTvelos mompovebeli da damamuSavebeli

mrewvelobis Sesaxeb 2001-2005 wlebSi.1

warmoebuli dasaqmebulTa dasaqmebulebi Sromis

saSualo wliuri procentulad nayofierebis
produqcia, ricxvi, done, larebSi
saqmianobis
mln.lari aTasi kaci
saxe
2001 Q
q0 2005 2001 2005 2001 2005 2001 и 0 2005 и 1
q1 T0 T1

samTo 68,8 154,3 6,5 8,6 10,0 12,2 10585 17942

mopovebiTi

damamuSavebeli 657,2 1552,7 58,7 61,7 90,0 87,8 11196 25165

sul 725,0 1707,0 65,2 70,3 100,0 100,0 11135 24282

mrewveloba

rogorc gamoTvlebi gviCvenebs, 2001-2005 wlebSi Sromis nayofierebis done

saqarTvelos samTomopovebiT mrewvelobaSi 10585 laridan gaizarda 17942 laramde,
e.i. 1,7-jer, xolo damamuSavebel mrewvelobaSi 11 196 laridan 25165 laramde, e.i.
2,2-jer. orive dargSi Sromis nayofiereba gaizarda 11 135 laridan 24 282 laramde,
e.i. 2,18-jer.

es ukanaskneli warmoadgens Sromis nayofierebis cvalebadi Semadgenlobis

indeqss:

и
Jй  1  24 282  2, 18, e.i. 218,0%.
и 11 135
0
(1.28)

gamovTvaloT Sromis nayofierebis fiqsirebuli Semadgenlobis indeqsi.

1
saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli 2006, Tb., 2007, gv. 168-170

41
 и  и0 T1 17 942  8,6 + 25 165  61,7
J= 1 1 :  :
T1 70,3
T
1

10 585  8,6 + 11196  61,7 154 301  1 552 680

:  :
70,3 70, 3

91 031  690 793 1 706 981 781 824

:  :  24 282 : 11 121  2,18, e.i.
70, 3 70, 3 70, 3
218,0%.

gamovTvaloT Sromis nayofierebis struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsi.

 и T0и0
J= 1 0 :  11 121 : 11 135  1,01 e.i. 100,0%
T0
T
1

Cvens mier Catarebuli gamoTvlebiT aRmoCnda, rom saqarTvelos

samTomopovebiT da damamuSavebel mrewvelobaSi Sromis nayofiereba gaizarda 218,0
procentiT, romelic mTlianad modioda Sromis nayofierebis zrdaze calkeul
qvedargebSi. struqturul faqtors saerTo Sromis nayofierebis zrdaze
araviTari gavlena ar mouxdenia, ramdenadac struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsi darCa
ucvleli 100,0%-is doneze.
indeqsebis urTierTkavSiris Tanaxmad: Sromis nayofierebis cvalebadi
Semadgenlobis indeqsi, 2,18, fiqsirebuli, 2,18 da struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsis,
1,0-is namravlis tolia:
2.18 = 2.18 • 1,0

erovnuli ekonomikis doneze Sromis nayofiereba gamoiTvleba mTliani Sida

produqtis ( q ) SefardebiT dasaqmebulTa ricxvTan (  ). aRniSnuli maCveneblis
gamosaTvlelad saWiro monacemebi mogvaqvs qvemoT cxril 1.8-Si.

cxrili 1.8

monacemebi mSp_sa da erovnul ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulTa

Sesaxeb saqarTveloSi 2001-2005 wlebSi.

1
ganayofi tolia 99,874-is.

42
 mSp dasaqmebulTa Sromis

mln.lari saSualowliuri nayofiereba procentulad 2005w.

ricxvi, aTasi lari 2001 welTan

kaci

dasaqmebulTa

2001 2005 2001 2005 2001 2005 saSualo

mSp Sromis
q0 q1 T0 T1 и0 и1 wliuri nayofiereba

ricxvi

6674,0 11621,0 1878,0 1745,0 3554 6660 174,1 92,9 187,4

warmoebuli mSp-s moculobaze moqmedebs ori faqtori: dasaqmebulTa ricxvi

da Sromis nayofiereba. ori periodisaTvis mSp-s cvlilebas gavzomavT mSp-s
saerTo indeqsiT. Tu mSp-s gamovsaxavT rogorc иT, maSin mSps saerTo indeqsi
toli iqneba;

и1 T1
Jq = . (1.29)
и0 T0

mSps saerTo indeqsi cxril 8.8_Si gamoTvlilia da Seadgens 174,1%.

mSps saerTo moculobis cvlilebaze dasaqmebulTa ricxvis cvlilebis

gavlenas gavzomavT dasaqmebis indeqsiT, romelic Semdegi saxisaa:

T1и1
JT = .
T0и1
(1.30)
1745  6660 11621
konkretulad ki JT    0,929, e.i. 92,9%.
1878  6660 12507

aRniSnuli maCvenebeli niSnavs, rom saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulTa

ricxvis Semcirebis gamo 2001-2005 wlebSi mSp Semcirda 7,1%-iT.

43
 mSp-s saerTo moculobis cvlilebaze Sromis nayofierebis cvlilebis
gavlenas gavzomavT Sromis nayofierebis indeqsiT, romelic Semdegi saxisaa:
и1 T0
Jи  .
и0 T0
(1.31)
6660  1878 12507
konkretulad Jи    1, 874, e.i. 187,4%.
3534  1878 6674
aRniSnuli indeqsi niSnavs, rom 2001_2005 wlebSi mSp Sromis nayofierebis
xarjze gaizrdeboda 187,4%-iT, rom ara dasaqmebis donis Semcireba. indeqsebis
urTierTkavSiris Tanaxmad: mSp-s indeqsi dasaqmebis da Sromis nayofierebis
indeqsebis namravlis tolia.
1,741 = 0,929  1,874.

indeqsebis mricxvelsa da mniSvnels Soris sxvaobebi gvaZlevs mSp-s saerTo

moculobis cvlilebaSi calkeuli faqtoris absolutur mniSvnelobas. kerZod,
2001-2005 wlebSi:
mSp gaizarda + 4947 mln. lariT;
dasaqmebis SemcirebiT Semcirda _ 886 mln. lariT;
Sromis nayofierebiT gaizarda + 5833 mln. lariT.
e. i. 4947 = 5833 _ 886
meorenairad mSp-s absoluturi mateba faqtorebad SeiZleba daiSalos
Semdegi formuliT:
Δq = (T1  T0 )  и1  (и1  и 0 )  T0 ,
(1.32)
e.i. 4947 mln. = (1745 _ 1878)  6660 + (6660 _ 3544)  1745 =
_ 133  6660 + 3106  1745 = _ 886 mln.lari + 5833 mln.lari.
aRniSnuli gaangariSebebi gviCvenebs, rom dasaqmebulTa ricxvi rom ar
Semcirebuliyo, mxolod amis Sedegad mSp moimatebda 886 milioni lariT da mSp-s
_ moculoba saqarTveloSi 2005 wels 11 621 milionis nacvlad toli iqneboda
12 507 milioni laris (11 621 + 886).
Sesabamisad, mosaxleobis dasaqmebis donis zrdas aqvs umniSvnelovanesi
rogorc socialuri, ise ekonomikuri mniSvneloba.

44
 Tema 2. ZiriTadi da sabrunavi kapitalis statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi:
- erovnuli simdidris zogadi koncefcia da gansazRvra
- aqtivebis klasifikacia erovnul simdidreSi
- ZiriTadi kapitalis gansazRvra da klasifikacia
- ZiriTadi kapitalis Sefasebis saxeebi

45
- ZiriTadi kapitalis balansi
- ZiriTadi kapitalis cveTa
- ZiriTadi kapitalis mdgomareobis, moZraobisa da vargisianobis
maCveneblebi
- ZiriTadi kapitalis gamoyenebis maCveneblebi
- ZiriTadi kapitalis dinamikis maCveneblebi
- sabrunavi kapitalis gansazRvra da klasifikacia
- sabrunavi kapitaliT uzrunvelyofisa da gamoyenebis maCveneblebi

qveynis erovnuli simdidris obieqturi da sruli Sefaseba, misi

struqturisa da dinamikis Seswavla statistikis mniSvnelovan amocanad
gvevlineba. es monacemebi aucilebelia saxelmwifo marTvis
organoebisaTvis, raTa ganaxorcielon ekonomikuri ganviTarebis analizi,
ekonomikuri politikis SemuSaveba, gadawyvetilebebis miReba arsebuli
resursebis gamoyenebis efeqtianobis amaRlebisaTvis, dabegvris srulyofis
problemebis gadawyveta. erovnuli simdidris Sesaxeb monacemebi
aucilebelia samecniero-kvleviTi dawesebulebebisaTvis, romlebic
Seiswavlian makroekonomikas, ageben prognozul modelebs, aanalizeben
ekonomikuri zrdis faqtorebs, gamoikevleven ekonomikaze ekologiuri
procesebis zegavlenas, atareben alternatiul gaangariSebebs, afarToeben
ekonomikuri analizis sazRvrebs. garda amisa, qveynis erovnuli simdidris
Sefasebam SeiZleba daainteresos investorebi, maT Soris, ucxoelebi.

2.1. erovnuli simdidris zogadi koncefcia da gansazRvra

erovnuli simdidris koncefcia, romelic rekomendebulia erovnul

angariSTa sistema-93-Si SeiZleba mokled Semdegnairad warmovadginoT:

erovnuli simdidre _ es aris mocemuli qveynis rezidenti instituciuri

erTeulebis kapitalis wminda RirebulebaTa jami raime TariRisaTvis
(wlis dasawyisSi an bolosaTvis).

46
kapitalis wminda Rirebuleba _ esaa instituciuri erTeulis yvela
ekonomikuri aqtivis (arafinansuri da finansuri) Rirebulebasa da maT
finansur valdebulebaTa sidides Soris sxvaoba.

mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis erovnuli simdidre udris arafinansuri

aqtivebis Rirebulebas damatebuli wminda finansuri moTxovnebi danarCen
msofliosTan. erovnuli simdidre SeiZleba agreTve gansazRvruli iyos,
rogorc ekonomikis seqtorebis kapitalis wminda RirebulebaTa jami, maTi
finansuri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis gaTvaliswinebiT. erovnuli
simdidris gaangariSebisas mxedvelobaSi miiReba mxolod sazRvargareTis
finansuri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis saldo, vinaidan erovnuli
ekonomikis seqtorebs Soris warmoqmnili finansuri aqtivebi da
valdebulebebi urTierTgdaifareba.
erovnul simdidreSi CarTuli unda iyos mxolod is aqtivebi, romlebzec
konkretul sameurneo subieqtebs SeuZliaT gaavrcelon sakuTrebis ufleba
(aseTi aqtivebs ekonomikuri aqtivebi ewodeba).
erovnul simdidres ar miekuTvneba moZiebuli bunebrivi resursebi,
romlebic ama Tu im mizezis gamo ar iyo CarTuli ekonomikur procesSi, ar
warmoadgens konkretuli instituciuri erTeulebis sakuTrebas. yvela
aqtivi da valdebuleba unda Sefasdes im momentisaTvis arsebul sabazro
fasebSi da ara maTi SeZenis fasebSi, rasac xSirad aqvs adgili
sabuRaltro aRricxvaSi.

2.2. aqtivebis klasifikacia erovnul simdidreSi

ekonomikuri aqtivebi _ es aris Rirebulebis mqone obieqtebi, romlebzec

instituciuri erTeulebis mier individualurad an koleqtiurad
vrceldeba sakuTrebis ufleba da romelTa flobiT (an gamoyenebiT) maT
flobelebs garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi SeuZliaT ekonomikuri
sargeblis miReba.
aqtivebs ar miekuTvneba adamianuri kapitali, bunebrivi aqtivebi, romlebic
ar iTvleba ekonomikur aqtivebad (magaliTad, sahaero sivrce) da garantiis
tipis pirobiTi aqtivebi, romlebic ar warmoadgenen finansur aqtivebs
(magaliTad, valis dafarvis garantia, romelic SemoTavazebulia mesame
mxaris mier, sakredito xazi da a. S.).
erovnul angariSTa sistema-93-is Sesabamisad yvela aqtivi iyofa sam
ZiriTad jgufad _ arafinansuri warmoebuli aqtivebi, arafinansuri
arawarmoebuli aqtivebi da finansuri aqtivebi:

47
I. arafinansuri aqtivebi

1. arafinansuri warmoebuli aqtivebi

1.1. ZiriTadi kapitali

1.1.1. materialuri ZiriTadi kapitali

sacxovrebeli binebi

sxva Senobebi da nagebobebi

manqanebi da mowyobilobebi

kultivirebadi aqtivebi.

1.1.2. aramaterialuri ZiriTadi kapitali

sasargeblo wiaRiseulis moZieba

programuli uzrunvelyofa (kompiuterebis)

literaturis, xelovnebisa da gasarTobi Janris nawarmoebebis

originalebi

sxva aramaterialuri ZiriTadi kapitali

1.2. materialuri sabrunavi kapitalis maragebi

1.2.1. masalebisa da nedleulis sawarmoo maragebi

1.2.2. daumTavrebeli warmoeba.

1.2.3. mza produqcia

1.2.4. saqoneli xelmeored gasayidad.

1.3. faseulobani

1.3.1. Zvirfasi qvebi da liTonebi

1.3.2. antikvariati da xelovnebis sxva nimuSebi

1.3.3. sxva faseulobebi

2. arafinansuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi

2.1. materialuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi

48
2.1.1. miwa

2.1.2. sasargeblo wiaRiseuli

2.1.3. arakultivirebadi biologiuri resursebi

2.1.4. wylis resursebi

2.2. aramaterialuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi

2.2.1. dapatentebuli obieqtebi

2.2.2. xelSekrulebebi arendis Sesaxeb da sxva gadasacemi xelSekrulebebi

2.2.3. nayidi `gudvili~ (saqmiani kavSirebisa da reputaciis pirobiTi

Rirebuleba)

2.2.4. sxva aramaterialuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi.

II. finansuri aqtivebi

1. monetaruli oqro da nasesxobis specialuri uflebebi

2. naRdi fuli da depozitebi

3. fasiani qaRaldebi, aqciebis garda

4. sesxebi

5. aqciebi da kapitalSi monawileobis sxva saxeebi

6. dazRvevis teqnikuri rezervebi

7. kreditorebisa da debitorebis sxva angariSebi.

arafinansuri aqtivebi _ instituciuri erTeulebis mflobelobaSi

arsebuli obieqtebia, romelTa flobas, Senaxvasa da gamoyenebas moaqvs
realuri an potenciuri ekonomikuri sargebeli drois garkveuli periodis
ganmavlobaSi. warmoSobis mixedviT isini iyofa warmoebul da
arawarmoebul aqtivebad.

arafinansuri warmoebuli aqtivebi iqmneba sawarmoo procesis Sedegad da

Sedgeba sami ZiriTadi elementisagan: ZiriTadi kapitali, materialuri
sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebi da faseulobani.

49
 2.3. ZiriTadi kapitalis gansazRvra da klasifikacia

ZiriTadi kapitali _ es aris sawarmoo aqtivebi, romlebic sawarmoo

procesSi gamoiyeneba mravaljer an mudmivad erTi wlisa da meti xnis
ganmavlobaSi. am jgufis SemadgenlobaSi ar Sedis wvrili instrumenti da
inventari, samxedro aRWurvilobis zogierTi saxe (damangreveli
saSualebebi) da a.S. ZiriTadi kapitali iyofa materialurad da
aramaterialurad.
materialuri ZiriTadi kapitalia _ sacxovrisebi, Senoba-nagebobani,
manqanebi da mowyobilobebi, kultivirebadi aqtivebi.
sacxovriss miekuTvneba Senobebi, romlebic mTlianad an nawilobriv
gamoiyeneba sacxovreblad binebis saxiT, maT Sorisaa sacxovrisebTan
dakavSirebuli nagebobani, magaliTad, avtofarexi da yvela mowyobiloba,
romelic Cveulebriv gvxvdeba sacxovrebel SenobebSi, agreTve mcuravi
saxlebi, gadasatani saxlebi da saxli-furgonebi, romlebic gamoiyeneba
rogorc mosaxleobis ZiriTadi sacxovrisi, agreTve istoriuli Zeglebi,
romlebis identificirebulia rogorc sacxovrebeli Senobebi.
Senobebi da nagebobani _ es aris arasacxovrebeli Senobebi da nagebobani
(magaliTad, sawyobebi, samrewvelo da savaWro sawarmoebis Senobebi,
sastumroebi, restornebi, saswavlo Senobebi da saavadmyofoebi,
gzatkecilebi, xidebi, metropoliteni, kaSxlebi, kavSirgabrulobisa da
eleqtrogadamcemi xazebi, magistraluri milgayvanilobebi da sxv.).
manqanebi da mowyobilobebi _ esaa adamianebisa da tvirTis gadasazidi
satransporto saSualebebi, manqanebi da mowyobilobebi. erovnuli
simdidris es elementi ar moicavs Sinameurneobebis mier saboloo
moxmarebisaTvis SeZenil manqanebs da mowyobilobebs (magaliTad,
avtomobili). isini aRiricxeba sacnobaro muxlSi _ `xangrZlivi moxmarebis
samomxmareblo saqoneli SinameurneobebSi”. magram Tu aseTi manqanebi da
mowyobilobani gamoiyeneba SinameurneobaSi sawarmoo procesis
gansaxorcieleblad, maSin isini unda miekuTvnos ZiriTad kapitals.
kultivirebadi aqtivebi _ soflis meurneobaSi ZiriTadi kapitalis erT-
erTi mTavari elementi, romelic moicavs produqtuli, sajiSe da muSa
pirutyvis, xexilis baRebis, venaxebis da sxva regularulad msxmoiare
mcenareebis plantaciebis Rirebulebas. kultivirebadi aqtivebi, Tu maT ar
miuRweviaT simwifis asakisaTvis (arasxmoiare) am kategoriaSi CaiTvleba
mxolod im SemTxvevaSi, Tu isini iwarmoeba sakuTari moxmarebisaTvis.
aramaterialuri ZiriTadi kapitali Sedgeba sasargeblo wiaRiseulis
saZiebo xarjebisagan, im obieqtebis Rirebulebebisgan, romlebic Seqmnilia
adamianis SromiT da warmodgenilia informaciis saxiT eleqtro-
gamoTvliTi manqanebis (kompiuterebis) programul uzrunvelyofaSi,

50
agreTve literaturis, xelovnebisa da gasarTobi Janris nawarmoebebis
originalebisagan. am jgufis SemadgenlobaSi Sedis agreTve kompiuteruli
bazis gafarToebisaTvis, SeZenisa da damuSavebisaTvis saWiro msxvili
danaxarjebi. igulisxmeba, rom es bazebi gamoiyeneba erT welze meti vadiT,
miuxedavad imisa, xdeba Tu ara maTi realizacia bazarze.
ZiriTadi kapitali, rogorc erovnuli simdidris ZiriTadi elementi,
tradiciulad aRiricxeba saxelmwifo statistikis mier. Tumca
saqarTveloSi gaangariSgebuli ZiriTadi kapitalis maCveneblebi
jerjerobiT srulad ar emTxveva erovnul angariSTa sistemaSi
gamoyenebuli ZiriTadi kapitalis kategorias.
magaliTad, statistikur praqtikaSi ZiriTad kapitals miekuTvneba mxolod
mTlianad dasrulebuli obieqtebi, maSin rodesac eas-is Sesabamisad
aqtivebi unda CaiTvalos ZiriTadi kapitalis SemadgenlobaSi im
momentidan, rodesac isini gadavidnen mflobelis sakuTrebaSi.

eas-is Sesabamisad, ZiriTadi kapitalis komponentebis SemadgenlobaSi

(romelic warmoebis xangrZlivi ciklis Sedegia), SeiZleba
gaviTvaliswinoT daumTavrebeli obieqtebis Rirebuleba, Tu: isini
mwarmoeblidan momxmareblis mflobelobaSi gadavidnen; maTi anazRaureba
etapobrivad moxda, an obieqts awarmoebs TviTon momxmarebeli (Senobebisa
da nagebobebis daumTavrebeli mSenebloba, gemebis, TviTmfrinavebis
daumTavrebeli mSenebloba, mozardeuli saqoneli, mravalwliani
nargavebis axalgazrda plantaciebi da a. S.).

2.4. ZiriTadi kapitalis Sefasebis saxeebi

ZiriTadi kapitalis mravalferovnebis gamo maTi saerTo moculobis

Sfaseba SesaZlebelia RirebulebiT gamosaxulebaSi. Sesyidvis droisa da
kapitalis mdgomareobis mixedviT SeiZleba gamoviyenoT Sefasebis 4 meTodi:
sruli Tavdapirveli, sruli aRdgeniTi, Tavdapirveli Rirebuleba cveTis
gamoklebiT da aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba cveTis gamoklebiT.
sruli Tavdapirveli Rirebuleba faqtobrivad ZiriTadi kapitalis
Rirebulebaa misi amoqmedebis dros. masSi Sedis ZiriTadi kapitalis
SeZenaze an damzadebaze gaweuli danaxarjebi, agreTve transportireba da
damontaJeba. naklovanebad SeiZleba CaiTvalos misdami sandoobis
SedarebiT dabali xarisxi drois sxvadasxva monakveTebSi fasebis
araerTgvarovnebis gamo.
Tavdapirveli Rirebuleba cveTis gamoklebiT, anu Tavdapirveli narCeni
Rirebuleba ganisazRvreba rogorc srul Tavdapirvel Rirebulebas minus

51
cveTis Rirebulebas damatebuli modernizaciisa da kapitaluri remontis
xarjebi.
sruli aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba axasiaTebs ZiriTadi kapitalis
kvlavwarmoebis Rirebulebas Tanamedrove pirobebSi, anu mis Seqmnasa da
SeZenaze gaweul danaxarjebs mimdinare fasebSi. misi gansazRvra
gadafasebis Sedegad xdeba. ZiriTadi kapitalis amoqmedebis momentSi
sruli Tavdapirveli da sruli aRdgeniTi Rirebulebebi erTmaneTis
tolia.
gansxvaveba Tavdapirvel da aRdgeniT Rirebulebebs Soris fasebis
cvlilebazea damokidebuli. amasTan, aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba SeiZleba iyos
rogorc meti, ise naklebi Tavdapirvel Rirebulebaze. es damokidebulia
masalebis, samSeneblo-samontaJo samuSaoebis, satransporto tarifebis da
a.S. fasebis cvlilebis mimarTulebaze.
aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba cveTis gamoklebiT, anu aRdgeniTi narCeni
Rirebuleba axasiaTebs kapitalis faqtiuri cveTis dones kvlavwarmoebis
axal pirobebSi. mis gasaangariSeblad sruli aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba
mravldeba cveTis koeficientze.
sabalanso Rirebuleba es aris ZiriTadi kapitalis is Rirebuleba,
romliTac xdeba maTi ayvana balansze. bolo gadafasebamde arsebuli
kapitali Sefasdeba aRdgeniTi RirebulebiT, xolo gadafasebis Semdgom
Semosuli axali kapitali _ sruli Tavdapirveli RirebulebiT.
ZiriTadi kapitalis SefasebasTan dakavSirebiT erovnul angariSTa
sistemaSi gansakuTrebuli Canawerebia gakeTebuli, raTa realurad moxdes
ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis gaangariSeba, saxeldobr:
ZiriTadi kapitalis Sesyidvebi SeiZleba wina periodebSi ganxorcielda,
rodesac fasebis done mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeboda mimdinare
periodisagan. amitom ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis Sefaseba imave fasebSi
unda moxdes, rogorc gamoSvebis an Sualeduri moxmarebisa warmoebis
angariSSi. Sesabamisad is fasebi unda gamoviyenoT, romlebic moqmedebs
maTi gamoyenebis periodSi da ara SeZenisas. “istoriuli fasebis”
gamoyeneba ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis Sefasebisas ar aris
mizanSewonili, radgan fasebi droSi icvleba.

2.5. ZiriTadi kapitalis cveTa

produqciis realizaciis Sedegad sawarmos ukan ubrundeba ZiriTadi

kapitalis Rirebulebis nawili, romlis akumulirebis Sedegad iqmneba
saamortizacio anaricxebis fondi, anu amortizaciis fondi.

amortizaciis fondSi Tanxebis akumulireba xdeba yovelwliurad

saamortizacio anaricxebis safuZvelze, rac Tavis mxriv Sedis produqciis

52
TviTRirebulebaSi. amortizaciis wliuri fondi gaiangariSeba Semdegi
saxiT:

sadac

_ ZiriTadi kapitalis sruli Tavdapirveli Rirebulebaa;

_ narCeni(salikvidacio) Rirebulebaa;

_ kapitaluri remontis Rirebulebaa;

_ modernizaciis Rirebulebaa;

_ ZiriTadi kapitalis samsaxuris normatiuli vadaa.

amortizaciis wliuri norma _ aris amortizaciis wliuri fondis fardoba

ZiriTadi kapitalis srul RirebulebasTan da ganisazRvreba formuliT:

rogorc wesi, amortizaciis normebis gansazRvra xdeba sabalanso

RirebulebasTan mimarTebiT (Tavdapirveli an aRdgeniTi) da isini
diferencirebulia ZiriTadi kapitalis saxeebis mixedviT.

2.6. ZiriTadi kapitalis balansi

ZiriTadi kapitalis balansebi gamoiyeneba ZiriTadi kapitalis moZraobis

Sesaswavlad. ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebuleba wlis bolos gaiangariSeba
Semdegi sabalanso sqemiT:

balansis monacemebis safuZvelze SesaZlebelia ZiriTadi kapitalis

saSualowliuri Rirebulebis gaangariSeba. SeiZleba ganvixiloT ramdenime
SemTxveva, mag:

1. rodesac cnobilia ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebuleba wlis

dasawyisSi da bolos, gaangariSeba warmoebs martivi saSualo
ariTmetikulis daxmarebiT:

53
 2. rodesac cnobilia ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebuleba Tanabrad
dacilebuli momentebisaTvis (mag. yoveli Tvis 1-eli ricxvisTvis),
saSualowliuri Rirebuleba SeiZleba gaviangariSoT saSualo
qronologiuriT:
=( ,

sadac ZiriTadi kapitalis sabalanso Rirebulebebia

TiToeuli Tvis 1-eli ricxvisTvis;

_ ZiriTadi kapitalis sabalanso Rirebulebaa momdevno wlis 1

ianvrisTvis.

2.7 ZiriTadi kapitalis moZraobis, mdgomareobisa da vargisianobis

maCveneblebi

ZiriTadi kapitalis moZraobis maCveneblebia:

Semosvlis koeficienti gaiangariSeba Semosuli ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebulebis

fardobiT ZiriTadi kapitalis RirebulebasTan saangariSo wlis bolos.

ganaxlebis koeficienti gaiangariSeba Semosuli axali ZiriTadi kapitalis

Rirebulebis fardobiT ZiriTadi kapitalis RirebulebasTan saangariSo wlis
bolos. is gviCvenebs ganaxlebis dones.

gasvlis koeficienti gaiangariSeba moqmedebidan gasuli ZiriTadi kapitalis

Rirebulebis fardobiT ZiriTadi kapitalis RirebulebasTan saangariSo wlis
dasawyisSi. is gviCvenebs gasvlis intensivobas.

54
likvidaciis koeficienti gaiangariSeba siZvelisa da cveTis gamo moqmedebidan
gasuli ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebulebis fardobiT ZiriTadi kapitalis
RirebulebasTan saangariSo wlis dasawyisSi.

likvidirebuli ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebulebis fardobiT Semosuli ZiriTadi

kapitalis RirebulebasTan angariSoben ZiriTadi kapitalis Secvlis intensivobas.

ZiriTadi kapitalis vargisianoba da mdgomareoba Seiswavleba Semdegi

maCveneblebiT:

cveTis koeficienti gaiangariSeba cveTis Tanxis fardobiTZiriTadi kapitalis

srul Tavdapirvel RirebulebasTan. is axasiaTebs ZiriTadi kapitalis xvedriT
wils, romelic axladSeqmnil produqciazea gadatanili.

vargisianobis koeficienti ganisazRvreba narCeni Rirebulebis fardobiT srul

Tavdapirvel RirebulebasTan. is axasiaTebsZiriTadi kapitalis im xvedriT wils,
romelic jer ar aris gadatanili axladSeqmnil produqciaze.

wlis bolosaTvis ZiriTadi kapitalis cveTis absoluturi Tanxis gansazRvra

xdeba mocemuli TariRisaTvis srul Tavdapirvel da narCen Rirebulebebs Soris
sxvaobiT:

cveTis koeficientis gaangariSeba SesaZlebelia agreTve cveTis absoluturi

Tanxis fardobiTZiriTadi kapitalis RirebulebasTan periodis bolos:

cveTisa da vargisianobis koeficientebs Soris urTierTkavSiriSemdegi saxiT

gamoisaxeba:

manqana-mowyobilobebis asakis dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba maTi saSualo asaki,

romelic Sewonili saSualo ariTmetikuliT gaiangariSeba, sadac ZiriTadi

55
kapitalis TiToeuli erTeulis asaki Sewonilia mis Sesabamisi asakis manqana-
mowyobilobebis raodenobasTan.

ZiriTadi kapitalis mdgomareobis, moZraobisa da vargisianobis

maCveneblebis gaangariSeba vaCvenoT mocemuli magaliTis daxmarebiT:

sademonstracio magaliTi 1.

firmis ZiriTadi kapitalis moculobisa da moZraobis Sesaxeb gvaqvs

Semdegi monacemebi (aTasi lari):
ZiriTadi kapitalis sruli Tavdapirveli Rirebuleba
wlis dasawyisSi 210
wlis ganmavlobaSi:
Semovida 30
gavida cveTis gamoklebiT 4
gasuli kapitalis sruli Tavdapirveli Rirebuleba 20
cveTa wlis dasawyisisTvis(%) 20
amortizaciis wliuri norma(%) 10

gansazRvreT ZiriTadi kapitalis:

1) Rirebuleba wlis bolosaTvis;
2) balansi sruli Tavdapirveli RirebulebiT;
3) ganaxlebis koeficienti;
4) gasvlis koeficienti;
5) narCeni Rirebuleba wlis dasawyisisaTvis;
6) amortizaciis wliuri moculoba;
7) narCeni Rirebuleba wlis bolosaTvis;
8) balansi narCeni RirebulebiT;
9) cveTisa da vargisianobis koeficientebi wlis dasawyisisaTvis;
10) cveTisa da vargisianobis koeficientebi wlis bolosaTvis.

amoxsna:
1. imisaTvis, rom ganvsazRvroT ZiriTadi kapitalis sruli Tavdapirveli
Rirebuleba wlis bolosaTvis, ZiriTadi kapitalis srul Tavdapirvel
Rirebulebas wlis dasawyisisaTvis daemateba ZiriTadi kapitalis Semosvla
wlis ganmavlobaSi da gamoakldeba gasvla:
210 + 30 - 20 = 220 aTasi lari
2. vadgenT ZiriTadi kapitalis balanss sruli Tavdapirveli RirebulebiT
(aTasi lari):

cxrili1.

56
 ZiriTadi kapitali wlis
Semovida saangariSo
gavida saangariSo periodSi
periodSi
ZiriTadi
kapitali
maT Soris wlis
maT Soris
axali bolos
sul sul likvidirebu-
dasawyisSi

ZiriTadi
lia
kapitali

1 2 3 4 5 6=1+2-4

210 30 30 20 - 220

3. ganaxlebis koeficienti gaiangariSeba wlis ganmavlobaSi Semosuli

kapitalis fardobiT wlis bolosaTvis arsebuli kapitalis
RirebulebasTan:
30
K ganaxl.   100  13.6%
220
4. gasvlis koeficienti tolia wlis ganmavlobaSi gasuli kapitalis
fardobisa wlis dasawyisSi arsebuli kapitalis RirebulebasTan:
20
K gasvl.   100  9.5%
210

ganvsazRvroT ZiriTadi kapitalis narCeni Rirebuleba wlis dasawyisisa da

bolosaTvis, amisaTvis jer vangariSobT Semdeg maCveneblebs:

5. ZiriTadi kapitalis narCeni Rirebuleba wlis dasawyisisaTvis =

= Zir. kapitalis Rirebuleba wlis dasawyisSi _ (Zir. kapitalis
Rirebuleba wlis dasawyisSi × cveTis procentze/100) =
210  20
=210 _  168000 lari.
100

6. ZiriTadi kapitalis amortizaciis wliuri

moculoba gaiangariSeba
 210  220 
ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualowliuri Rirebulebis   gadamravlebiT
 2 
 10 
wliuri amortizaciis koeficientze  .
 100 
7. ZiriTadi kapitalis narCeni Rirebuleba wlis bolos iqneba:

168 +30_4_21.5=172.5

57
8. aRniSnuli monacemebis gaangariSebis Semdeg SevadginoT ZiriTadi
kapitalis balansi cveTis gamoklebiT (narCeni RirebulebiT), aTasi lari:
cxrili 2.
Semovida
gavida saangariSo
saangariSo amortizacia
periodSi
ZiriTadi periodSi (wliuri) ZiriTadi
kapitali maT kapitali
wlis Soris wlis
dasawyisSi maT Soris bolos
sul axali sul
likvidirebulia (210+220)/2*0.1
ZiriTadi
kapitali
168 30 30 4 - 21.5 172.5

am monacemebis safuZvelze gaviangariSoT cveTisa da vargisianobis

koeficientebi:

9. wlis dasawyisisaTvis:
210  0.2 210  210  0.2
KK K cv.   100  20% , Kvarg .  100  80% an (100% _ 20%) =80%
210 210

10. wlis bolos:

220  172.5 172.5
Kcv.  100  21.6% , K varg .   100  78.4%
220 220
Tu SevadarebT kapitalis mdgomareobas, SevamCnevT, rom wlis bolosaTvis
cveTa gaizarda (21.6% – 20%) =1.6%-iT.

2.8. ZiriTadi kapitalis gamoyenebis maCveneblebi

statistikaSi ZiriTadi kapitalis gamoyenebas swavloben Semdegi

maCveneblebis saSualebiT:
1. kapitalukugeba, romelic gviCvenebs warmoebuli produqciis moculobas
ZiriTadi kapitalis 1 larze:

sadac
_ warmoebuli produqciis Rirebulebaa;
_ ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualo Rirebulebaa.

58
2. kapitaltevadoba, romelic gviCvenebs ZiriTadi kapitalis moculobas
warmoebuli produqciis 1 larze da kapitalukugebis Sebrunebuli
maCvenebelia:

3. kapitalSeiaraReba, romelic gviCvenebs ZiriTadi kapitalis moculobas 1

momuSaveze:

sadac
_ samuSao Zalis saSualo raodenobaa;
_ ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualo Rirebulebaa.
am maCveneblebs Soris Semdegi urTierTkavSiria: Tu kapitalukugebas
gavamravlebT kapitalSeiaraRebaze, miviRebT Sromis nayofierebas:

2.9 ZiriTadi kapitalis dinamikis maCveneblebi

ZiriTadi kapitalis dinamika Seiswavleba indeqsebis saSualebiT.

ZiriTadad gamoiyeneba individualuri indeqsebi da maTi urTierTkavSiri.
ZiriTadi kapitalis dinamikis maCveneblebis gaangariSeba vaCvenoT
mocemuli magaliTis daxmarebiT:

sademonstracio magaliTi 2.

sawarmos monacemebis mixedviT:

maCvenebeli sabaziso saangariSo
(aTasi lari) periodi periodi
ZiriTadi kapitalis
22250 25900
saSualowliuri moculoba
gamoSvebuli produqcia
46500 49210
Sesadaris fasebSi
gansazRvreT:
1. ZiriTadi kapitalis kapitalukugebis indeqsi ;
2. gamoSvebuli produqciis moculobis dinamikis indeqsi;
3. ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualowliuri moculobis ( dinamikis
indeqsi;
4. urTierTkavSiri wina sam maCvenebels Soris.

59
 amoxsna:
1. ZiriTadi kapitalis kapitalukugebis indeqsi :
jer gaviangariSoT kapitalukugebis maCveneblebi saangariSo da
sabaziso periodebisaTvis:
saangariSoperiodSi:
49210
  1,90 lari
25900
sabazisoperiodSi:
46500
  2,09 lari
22250
saangariSo da sabaziso periodebis kapitalukugebis maCveneblebis
fardobiT miviRebT kapitalukugebis indeqss:
1,9
 0,909
2,09
2. gamoSvebuli produqciis moculobis (Q) dinamikis indeqsi:
Q1 49210
iQ    1,058
Q0 46500
3. ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualowliuri moculobis( dinamikis
indeqsi:
25900
  1,164
22250
4. urTierTkavSiri wina sam maCvenebels Soris Semdeg kanonzomierebas
emorCileba:

Tu mocemulia ori maTgani, SeiZleba davadginoT mesame. magaliTad,

Tu gamoSvebuli produqciis moculobis dinamikis indeqss gavyofT
ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualowliuri moculobis dinamikis indeqsze,
miviRebT kapitalukugebis indeqss:
1,058 : 1,164 = 0,909 anu 90,9%.
2.10. sabrunavi kapitalis gansazRvra da klasifikacia

ZiriTadi kapitalisgan gansxvavebiT sabrunavi kapitali sawarmoo procesSi

erTjeradad monawileobs da mTeli Rirebuleba gadaaqvs Seqmnil
produqciaze. mis SemadgenlobaSi Sedis: materialuri sabrunavi
saSualebebis maragebi, sawarmoo maragebi, daumTavrebeli warmoeba, mza
produqcia, saqoneli gadasayidad.

60
materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebs miekuTvneba saqoneli,
romelic Seqmnilia mimdinare an wina periodSi da inaxeba gasayidad, an
maTi gamoiyeneba warmoebaSi mogvianebiTaa gaTvaliswinebuli. esenia _
masalebisa da nedleulis sawarmoo maragebi, daumTavrebeli warmoeba,
gadasayidi saqoneli, saxelmwifo materialuri rezervebi, e.i. strategiuli
masalebis maragebi, xorbali da sxva saqoneli, romlebsac gansakuTrebuli
mniSvneloba aqvT qveynisaTvis da inaxeba mTavrobis mier sagangebo
mdgomareobisaTvis.
sawarmoo maragebis SemadgenlobaSi Sedis nedleuli, masalebi, saTbobi,
instrumentebi, Tesli, sakvebi da sxva saqoneli, romlebsac maTi mflobeli
gamoiyenebs Sualeduri moxmarebisaTvis sakuTar sawarmoo procesSi, e.i.
saqoneli, romelic gadasayidad ar aris gankuTvnili. sawarmoo maragis,
nedleulisa da masalebisdamaxasiaTebeli Taviseburebaa monawileoba
warmoebis erTi ciklis ganmavlobaSi. rogorc wesi, maTi Rirebuleba
srulad gadadis maTgan an maTi monawileobiT warmoebuli saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis RirebulebaSi.
daumTavrebeli warmoeba _ esaa saqoneli da momsaxureba, romelTa
warmoeba dawyebulia, magram mTlianad ar aris damTavrebuli da
gagrZeldeba imave mwarmoeblis mier momaval periodSi. gamoiricxeba
nawilobriv damTavrebuli saqoneli da momsaxureba, romelTa mimarT
vrceldeba saboloo mflobelis sakuTrebis ufleba, e. i. an warmoeba
xorcieldeba sakuTari moxmarebisaTvis an aRniSnuli dasturdeba yidva-
gayidvis xelSekrulebiT.

mza produqcia _ esaa saqoneli, romelic mzadaa gasayidad, an sxva

sameurneo erTeulebisaTvis gasagzavnad.

unda aRvniSnoT, rom saqoneli, romelsac erTnairi naturalur-nivTobrivi

forma aqvs, SeiZleba mivakuTnoT erovnuli simdidris sxvadasxva elements
imisda mixedviT, Tu rogor gamoiyeneba mocemul momentSi.

magaliTad, Carxi, romelic gamoiyeneba sawarmoo procesSi, anda romelic unda

damontaJdes sawarmoSi, Sedis ZiriTadi kapitalis SemadgenlobaSi, xolo aseTive Carxi,
romelic imyofeba sawarmo-damamzadeblis mza produqciis sawyobSi, miekuTvneba
materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis maragis kategorias.

saqoneli gadasayidad warmoadgens savaWro organizaciebSi arsebuli da

gasayidad gankuTvnili saqonlis Rirebulebas.

2.11 sabrunavi kapitaliT uzrunvelyofisa da gamoyenebis maCveneblebi

61
sabrunavi kapitaliT sawarmoo procesis uzrunvelyofisa da efeqturi
gamoyenebis mizniT statistikaSi gamoiyeneba Semdegi maCveneblebi:

1. maragebiT uzrunvelyofis maCvenebeli dReebSi, romelic tolia faqtiuri

maragebis fardobisa maragebis saSualodRiur moculobasTan:

2. brunvadobis koeficienti, romelic axasiaTebs sabrunavi kapitalis

saSualo naSTis brunvaTa ricxvs da gaiangariSeba warmoebuli
(realizebuli) produqciis moculobis fardobiT sabrunavi kapitalis
saSualo naSTTan:

3. datvirTvis koeficienti, romelic gviCvenebs 1 laris realizebuli

produqciis warmoebisaTvis saWiro sabrunavi kapitalis Rirebulebas da is
brunvadobis koeficientis Sebrunebuli sididea:

4. brunvadoba dReebSi, anu erTi brunvis saSualo xangrZlivoba, romelic

gviCvenebs dros kalendarul dReebSi, romelic saWiroa sabrunavi
kapitalis erTjeradad amobrunebisTvis. amisaTvis kalendarul dReTa
ricxvi iyofa brunvadobis koeficientze:

an

5. saangariSo periodSi gamoTavisuflebuli sabrunavi kapitalis moculoba

brunvadobis cvlilebis xarjzesabazisosTan SedarebiT:

an

62
sabrunavi kapitalis statistikuri maCveneblebis gaangariSeba vaCvenoT
mocemuli magaliTis daxmarebiT:

sademonstracio magaliTi 3.

sawarmos sabrunavi saxsrebis (kapitalis) Sesaxeb gvaqvs Semdegi monacemebi,

aTasi lari:

TariRi 2008w. 2009w.

1 ianvari 336 384

1 aprili 391 451

1 ivlisi 350 363

1 oqtomberi 400 418

31 dekemberi 368 390

realizebuli produqciis Rirebulebam 2008 wels Seadgina 3051 aTasi lari,

xolo 2009 wels _ 3724 aTasi lari.

gansazRvreT:

a) brunvadobis koeficienti, brunvadoba dReebSi da sabrunavi saxsrebis

datvirTvis koeficientebi TiToeuli wlisaTvis;

b) sabrunavi saxsrebis cvlileba realizebuli produqciisa da

brunvadobis xarjze.

amoxsna:

brunvadobis koeficienti gaiangariSeba formuliT:

sadac,

Q - raime periodSi gamoSvebuli an realizebuliproduqciis Rirebulebaa

sabazro fasebSi;

- sabrunavi saxsrebis saSualo naSTia imave periodSi.

63
sabrunavi saxsrebis saSualo naSTi TiToeuli wlisaTvis gaviangariSoT
saSualo qronologiuris saSualebiT.

sabrunavi saxsrebis saSualo naSTi 2008 wlisTvis toli iqneba:

336 368
 391  350  400 
 2 2  1493  373,25 aTasi lari
4 4

sabrunavi saxsrebis saSualo naSTi 2009 wlisTvis toli iqneba:

384 390
 451  363  418 
 2 2  1619  404,75 aTasi lari
4 4

brunvadobis koeficienti 2008 wlisTvis toli iqneba:

3051
K 2008   8,174 brunva
373,25

brunvadobis koeficienti 2009 wlisTvis toli iqneba:

3724
K 2009   9,201 brunva
404,75

brunvadoba dReebSi ganisazRvreba mocemuli periodis kalendaruli

dReebis ricxvis SefardebiT brunvadobis koeficientze:

Sesabamisad, 2008 da 2009 wlebSi brunvadoba dReebSi tolia:

365
t 2008   44,654 dRe
8,174

365
t 2009   39,670 dRe
9,201

sabrunavi saxsrebis datvirTvis koeficienti gaiangariSeba realizebuli

produqciis erT larze sabrunavi saxsrebis moculobiT da is brunvadobis
koeficientis Sebrunebuli maCvenebelia.

64
Sesabamisad, 2008 da 2009 wlebisTvis sabrunavi saxsrebis datvirTvis
koeficientebi tolia:

373,25
K 2008   0,1223
3051

404,75
K 2009   0,1087
3724

b) sabrunavi saxsrebis cvlilebam realizebuli produqciis xarjze

Seadgina:

 Q  (Q2009  Q2008)  K 2008  (3724  3051)  0,1223  82,3 aTasi lari

sabrunavi saxsrebis cvlilebam brunvadobis xarjze Seadgina:

K  ( K 2009  K 2008)  Q2009  (0,1087  0,1223)  3724  50,7 aTasi lari

realizebuli produqciis moculobis gadidebam 2009 wels gamoiwvia

sabrunavi saxsrebis saSualo naSTis zrda 82,3 aTasi lariT, xolo
brunvadobis zrdam _ naSTis Semcireba 50,7 aTasi lariT.

Tema 3. makroekonomikuri statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema

saleqcio sakiTxebi:

65
 - mTliani Sida produqti (mSp) da misi gaangariSebis meTodebi.
wminda Sida produqti
- mSp-is gaangariSebis meTodebi
- mSp-is gadaangariSeba mudmiv fasebSi
- erovnuli Semosavali
- ekonomikis mTliani saoperacio mogeba da Sereuli Semosavlebi
- gankargvadi Semosavali
- erovnuli danazogi
- wminda dakrediteba da wminda sesxeba

3.1. mTliani Sida produqti (mSp) da misi gaangariSebis meTodebi

mTliani Sida produqti (mSp) erovnul angariSianobaSi2 yvelaze xSirad

gamoyenebuli indikatoria. SeiZleba iTqvas, rom is erovnul angariSTa
sistemis RerZia, qveynis ekonomikis funqcionirebis Sedegebis mTavari
makroekonomikuri maCvenebelia.
amasTan, misi ganmarteba saerTaSorisod SeTanxmebuli da aRiarebulia3.
mSp-is raodenobriv monacemSi ganmeorebiTi aRricxvis gareSe
4
gaerTianebulia mocemuli qveynis ekonomikur teritoriaze yvela firmis,
ara-momgebiani instituciis, marTvis organoebisa da Sinameurneobebis mier
warmoebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis gamoSveba mocemul periodSi.
qveynebis umravlesobaSi misi gaangariSeba wliuri da kvartaluri
sixSiriT xdeba, Tumca SesaZlebelia yovelTviuri Sefasebebic.
mSp-is gaangariSeba martivi ar aris. TvalsaCinoebisTvis ganvixiloT
regionSi makaronis warmoebis magaliTi. dauSvaT wlis ganmavlobSi
regionSi makaronis mwarmoebeli erTi firma saqmianobs. maSin, regionis mSp
SeiZleba ganvsazRvroT rogorc wlis ganmavlobaSi gamoSvebuli makaronis
raodenoba tonebSi, an misi Rirebuleba dolarebSi. axla, vnaxoT, Tu
ratom ar aris sakmarisi makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis gasaangariSeblad
mxolod RirebulebiT sazom erTeulebSi gamosaxuli calkeuli firmebis
2
erovnuli angariSianoba, anu erovnul angariSTa sistemis (eas) warmoeba warmoadgens
logikurad Tanamimdevrul, integrirebul makroekonomikur angariSTa, balansebisa da
cxrilebis sistemas, romelic efuZneba saerTaSoriso doneze SeTanxmebul cnebebs,
ganmartebebs, klasifikaciebs da aRricxvis wesebs.
3 igulisxmeba 5 saerTaSoriso organizaciis (gaerTianebuli erebis organizacia(gaero),
saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi(ssf), ekonomikuri TanamSromlobisa da ganviTarebis
organizacia(eTgo), msoflio banki(mb) da evropis komisia) mier gamocemuli
saxelmZRvaneloebi: “erovnul angariSTa sistema 1993”, “evropul angariSTa sistema 1995” da
“erovnul angariSTa sistema 2008”(axali versia).
4
mocemuli qveynis administraciulad marTvadi teritoria, romelzec adamianebi, saqoneli
da fuli Tavisuflad gadaadgildebian.

66
gamoSvebis Sejameba. pasuxi erTia: imitom, rom gaangariSeba didad aris
damokidebuli firmebis organizaciul struqturaze.
isev mivubrundeT makaronis warmoebis magaliTs mocemul regionSi, oRond
am SemTxvevaSi ganvixiloT warmoebis or scenari. dauSvaT, rom pirvel
wels regionSi mxolod erTi firmaa A, romelic makaronsac awarmoebs da
fqvilsac makaronis warmoebisaTvis. misi gamoSveba 100 000 dolaria, rac
Seesabameba mis mier warmoebul 100 tona makarons (1 t=1 000 dol.). axla
dauSvaT, rom momaval wels firma A orad gaiyo, romelTagan A1 awarmoebs
da yidis 30 000 dolaris Rirebulebis fqvils, xolo A2 mxolod makarons.
firma A2 isev imden makarons awarmoebs, ramdensac wina wels, anu 100 tonas
da 1 t isev 1 000 dolari Rirs.
cxrili 1. makaronis warmoeba regionSi gamartivebuli sqemiT

weli 1
firma A
gamoSveba $ 100 000
weli 2
firma A1 firma A2
gamoSveba $ 30 000 $ 100 000

Tu pirvel wels regionis gamoSveba 100 000 dolari iyo, meore wels
mTliani gamoSveba orive firmis gamoSvebis jamis toli unda iyos, anu
A1+A2 (30 000 dol + 100 000 dol). Tumca es aSkarad absurdia! es cifri (130
000 dol.) gamoSvebis 30%-ian matebas gviCvenebs (130 000/100 000=1.30, an +30%)
maSin, rodesac makroekonomikur doneze faqtobrivad araviTari cvlileba
ar momxdara. meore wlis ganmavlobaSi regionSi makaronis imave
raodenobis warmoeba moxda igive fasad. maS ra moxda? cvlilebebi
ganicada mxolod firmebis organizaciul-samarTlebrivma da komerciulma
mowyobam.
swored am gansxvavebam warmoSva idea imis Taobaze, rom TiToeuli firmis
wvlili ara mTliani gamoSvebis, aramed damatebuli Rirebulebis mixedviT
unda Sefasebuliyo. sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, damatebuli Rirebuleba
danamatia firmis danaxarjebis nakadebze, anu sawarmoo moxmarebaze. kvlav
mivubrundeT makaronis magaliTs. pirvel welTan SedarebiT, rodesac
mxolod erTi A firma awarmoebda makarons, meore wels A2 firmis mier
warmoebuli damatebuli Rirebuleba 100 000$-is toli ar aris. firma A2 30
000$-is toli Rirebulebis fqvils yidulobs A1-isgan, romelic pirvel
wels TviTon awarmoebda fqvilsac da amas gamoSvebaSi ar iTvaliswinebda.
amitom, A2 firmis damatebul Rirebulebas erovnul angariSTa sistema
angariSobs rogorc sxvaobas: 100 000$ – 30 000$. anu A2 firmis gamoSvebis

67
Rirebulebas akldeba im saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebuleba, rac mis
warmoebaze daxarja mocemuli periodis ganmavlobaSi.
saqoneli da momsaxureba, romelic mocemuli periodis ganmavlobaSi
daixarja warmoebis procesSi, aris Sualeduri moxmareba. gamoSvebidan
Sualeduri moxmarebis gamoricxviT Cven Tavidan vicilebT ganmeorebiT
(dublirebul) aRricxvas. aRniSnuli qmedeba iqiTkenaa mimarTulia, rom
makroekonomikuri indikatori ar iyos damokidebuli firmis organizaciul
struqturaze. TvalsaCinoebisTvis ixileT cxrili, romelSic CarTulia
fermac, romelic xorbals awarmoebs SemdgomSi am xorblidan fqvilis
sawarmoeblad. simartivisTvis dauSvaT, rom fermers ar aqvs Sualeduri
moxmareba: is iyenebs sakuTar samuSao Zalas da manqana-mowyobilobebs,
saTesle masalisa da sasuqis yidvis gareSe.

cxrili 2. makaronis warmoeba regionSi gafarToebuli sqemiT

weli 1
fermeri firma A
moxmareba samuSao samuSao Zala+manqana-
Zala+manqana- mowyobilobebi+xorbali
mowyobilobebi
gamoSveba xorbali makaroni
gamoSveba $10 000 $ 100 000
Sualeduri 0 $10 000
moxmareba
damatebuli $10 000 $90 000
Rirebuleba
weli 2
fermeri firma A1 firma A2
moxmareba samuSao samuSao Zala+manqana- samuSao Zala+manqana-
Zala+manqana- mowyobilobebi+xorbali mowyobilobebi+fqvili
mowyobilobebi
gamoSveba xorbali fqvili makaroni
gamoSveba $10 000 $ 30 000 $100 000
Sualeduri 0 $10 000 $30 000
moxmareba
damatebuli $10 000 $20 000 $70 000
Rirebuleba

rogorc diagramidan Cans, TiToeuli mwarmoebeli erTeulis gamoSveba

icvleba, Tumca damatebuli Rirebulebis jami TiToeuli erTeulisTvis 100
000 dolaris toli rCeba organizaciuli mowyobisgan damoukideblad.

ai, amitom aris mSp TiToeuli firmis, samTavrobo instituciebisa da

mwarmoebeli Sinameurneobebis damatebuli Rirebulebebis jami mocemul
qveyanaSi: mSp = ∑ damatebuli Rirebulebebi. radgan TiToeuli damatebuli

68
Rirebuleba gamoSvebisa da Sualeduri moxmarebis sxvaobis tolia, mSp
sabolood SeiZleba ase CavweroT: mSp = ∑ gamoSvebebi - ∑ Sualeduri
moxmarebebi.

mSp-is Sedgenili formula (romelic cnobilia, rogorc “agregatuli”),

qmnis gamoSvebis makroekonomikur indikators, romelic organizaciuli
struqturisagan damoukidebelia da ar Seicavs ganmeorebiT aRricxvas. es
formula SeiZleba magaliTad moviyvanoT im sami arsebiTi wesis
TvalsaCinoebisaTvis, rasac mimarTaven xolme erovnul angariSTa sistemis
agebisas, rodesac mikroekonomikidan makroekonomikur gaangariSebebs
awarmoeben:

 ganmeorebiTi aRricxvis gamoricxva

 ekonomikurad mniSvnelovani agregatebis SemuSaveba (e.i. romelTa
Rirebuleba ar aris damokidebuli araekonomikur faqtorebze), da
 iseTi indikatorebis Seqmna, romelTa gazomva praqtikulad
SesaZlebelia.

ras niSnavs mTliani Sida produqti, anu mSp? es aris produqti, ris
gazomvasac vcdilobT, anu warmoebis Sedegi _ yvela saqoneli da
momsaxureba, romelic gamoiyeneba saboloo moxmarebisaTvis, dagrovebisa
da eqsportisaTvis; ar Sedis Sualeduri saqoneli da momsaxureba,
romelic daxarjulia warmoebis procesSi nedleulis, masalis, sawvavis,
energiis da a.S. saxiT.
Sida niSnavs, rom produqti warmoebulia qveynis ekonomikur teritoriaze,
sityva mTliani niSnavs, rom mSp-is gaangariSebisas misi Rirebulebidan ar
gamoiricxeba ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba. principSi, warmoebis Sedegebis
zusti gazomvisaTvis (ra mizniTac gaiangariSeba sakuTriv mSp) unda
gamoiricxos ara mxolod Sualeduri moxmareba, aramed ZiriTadi kapitalis
moxmarebac, romelic ekonomikuri TvalsazrisiT, Sualeduri saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis xarjvis analogiuria. Tumca praqtikaSi ZiriTadi kapitalis
moxmarebis gaangariSeba im meTodiT, rogorc es gaTvaliswinebulia eas-Si
(anu ZiriTadi kapitalis Sefaseba aRdgeniTi Rirebulebis mixedviT),
sakmaod Znelia, vinaidan ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebaze sabuRaltro
aRricxvis
monacemebi ar Seesatyviseba eas-is ganmartebebs: rogorc wesi, ZiriTadi
kapitalis amortizaciis gaangariSeba sabuRaltro aRricxvaSi xdeba
sawyisi da ara aRdgeniTi RirebulebiT, rogorc amas moiTxovs eas. garda
amisa, amortizaciis gaangariSeba sabuRaltro aRricxvaSi SeiZleba
daCqarebuli amortizaciis safuZvelze, rac miuRebelia eas-Si.

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amgvarad, ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebaze eas-is moTxovnebis Sesabamisi
monacemebis miRebis SemTxvevaSi (ZiriTadi kapitalis amortizaciis
gaangariSeba aRdgeniTi Rirebulebis bazaze) SesaZlebeli iqneboda
ekonomikuri warmoebis Sedegebis ufro zusti maCveneblis _ wminda Sida
produqtis gaangariSeba. es gaTvaliswinebulia eas-is sqemiT, Tumca
praqtikaSi statistikosebi iZulebulni arian gamoiyenon mSp.
dabolos, unda aRiniSnos, rom mSp _ im sawarmoebis, dawesebulebebisa da
organizaciebis sawarmoo saqmianobaa, romlebic mocemuli qveynis
rezidentebi5 arian, Tumca am sawarmoebis, dawesebulebebisa da
organizaciebis yvela muSaki ar aris mocemuli qveynis rezidenti.
saqarTvelos eas-is praqtikaSi ekonomikuri operaciebi aRiricxeba maTi
ganxorcielebis momentisaTvis arsebul mimdinare sabazro fasebSi
daricxvis meTodiT. produqciis (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis) gamoSvebis
Sefaseba xdeba sabaziso fasebSi, Sualeduri moxmarebis ki _ myidvelis
fasebSi. sabaziso fasi aris Tanxa, romelsac mwarmoebeli iRebs
warmoebuli produqciis (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis) sanacvlod
(sakompensaciod), misi warmoebis an gayidvis gamo yvela saxis gadasaxadis
gamoklebiT da subsidiis damatebiT. myidvelis fasi aris Tanxa, romelsac
ixdis myidveli mocemul drosa da adgilze produqciis (saqonlis da
momsaxurebis) miwodebis sanacvlod. amisaTvis, sabaziso fass emateba
mTliani danaricxebi, romelic moicavs: savaWro-satransporto fasnamatebs
da gadasaxadebs produqciaze (dRg, aqcizi da sabaJo gadasaxadebs)
subsidiebis gareSe.

3.2. mSp-is gaangariSebis meTodebi

rogorc ukve CvenTvis cnobilia, mSp aris wlis manZilze mocemuli qveynis
ekonomikur teritoriaze warmoebuli yvela saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
Rirebuleba Sualeduri moxmarebis gamoklebiT.

sawarmos, dargis, seqtoris doneze mSp-s Seesabameba maCvenebeli mTliani

damatebuli Rirebuleba.

mSp-Si Sedis agreTve ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba (Cvens praqtikaSi

amortizacia). miuxedavad imisa, rom wminda maCveneblebis gamoTvla
Zalian mniSvnelovania, ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis gazomva aRdgeniTi
Rirebulebis bazaze dReisaTvis gaZnelebulia, amitom prioriteti eniWeba
mTliani maCveneblebis gamoTvlas.

5 instituciebi da fizikuri pirebi, romlebic cxovroben, an saqmianoben mocemul

ekonomikur teritorize xangrZlivad, 1 welze meti xnis ganmavlobaSi.

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sagareo vaWrobis gaTvaliswinebiT, mSp SeiZleba gaviangariSoT
kvlavwarmoebis ciklis yovel stadiaze Sesabamisi meTodebis daxmarebiT:
 sawarmoo

 ganawilebiს (Semosavlebis)

 saboloo moxmarebis (danaxarjebis)

sawarmoo meTodiT mSp-is gaangariSeba SesaZlebelia sxvadasxva xerxiT:

1. mSp sabazro fasebSi = Sida ekonomikaSi warmoebuli saqonlisa

da momsaxurebis mTliani gamoSveba sabaziso fasebSi _ Sualeduri
moxmarebis saerTo Rirebuleba + damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadi +
wminda gadasaxadebi importze.

cxrili 3. mSp-is gaangariSeba sawarmoo meTodiT, saqarTvelo6

mSp-is gaangariSeba 2011

sawarmoo meTodiT
mTliani gamoSveba 36 430.7
sabaziso fasebSi
Sualeduri 15 455.3
moxmareba
damatebuli 29 975.4
Rirebuleba
sabaziso fasebSi
(+) gadasaxadebi 3 492.7
produqciaze
(-) subsidiebi 124.1
produqciaze
mTliani Sida 24 344.0
produqti sabazro
fasebSi

2. mSp sabazro fasebSi = dargebis damatebuli Rirebulebis

(sabazro fasebSi) jams, e.i igi moicavs wminda gadasaxadebs produqtebsa da
importze (dRg-s gareSe). amasTan, mdR dargSi gaiangariSeba rogorc
sxvaoba mTlian gamoSvebasa (sabazro fasebSi) da Sualedur moxmarebas
Soris.
cxrili 4. mSp-is gaangariSeba sawarmoo meTodiT (saqmianobis saxeebis
damatebuli Rirebulebebis Sejamebis gziT)7

6 saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli: 2012 / saqarTvelos statistikis

erovnuli samsaxuri. – Tbilisi, 2013, gv.109
7
saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli: 2012 / saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli
samsaxuri. – Tbilisi, 2013, gv. 115

71
 damatebuli Rirebuleba saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT 2011

soflis meurneoba, nadiroba da satyeo meurneoba; 1,854.9

TevzWera, meTevzeoba
samTomopovebiTi mrewveloba 208.8
damamuSavebeli mrewveloba 2,085.6
eleqtroenergiis, airisa da wylis warmoeba da 634.8
ganawileba
produqciis gadamuSaveba Sinameurneobebis mier 655.8
mSenebloba 1,407.9
vaWroba; avtomobilebis, sayofacxovrebo nawarmisa da 3,552.7
piradi moxmarebis sagnebis remonti
sastumroebi da restornebi 466.3
transporti 1,573.4
kavSirgabmuloba 638.6
safinanso saqmianoba 536.1
operaciebi uZravi qonebiT, ijara da momxmareblisaTvis 1,138.7
momsaxurebis gaweva
sakuTari sacxovrisis gamoyenebis pirobiTi renta 665.9
saxelmwifo mmarTveloba 2,443.0
ganaTleba 1,050.0
janmrTelobis dacva da socialuri daxmareba 1,275.5
sxva komunaluri, socialuri da personaluri 1,021.7
momsaxurebis gaweva
Sinamosamsaxuris saqmianoba da Sinameurneobebis 25.2
saqmianoba, dakavSirebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
warmoebasTan sakuTari moxmarebisaTvis
finansuri Suamavlobis momsaxurebis arapirdapiri -259.5
Sefaseba
mSp sabaziso fasebSi 20,975.4
(+) gadasaxadebi produqciaze 3,492.7
(-) subsidiebi produqciaze 124.1
mSp sabazro fasebSi 24,344.0

3. mSp sabazro fasebSi = ekonomikis seqtorebSi8 mdR-is jami

(sabazro fasebSi). saqarTveloSi am meTodiT mSp ar iangariSeba, radgan ar
gvaqvs monacemebi ekonomikis yvela seqtoris mixedviT.

ganawilebis meTodi gamoiyeneba ganawilebis stadiaze. es aris pirveladi

Semosavlebis jami, romelic rezidenti ekonomikuri erTeulebis mier
nawildeba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis mwarmoebelTa Soris: daqiravebul

8
eas-Si ekonomika dayofilia 6 seqtorad: arafinansuri, finansuri, samTavrobo,
Sinameurneobebis, Sinameurneobebis momsaxure arakomerciuli organizaciebi(Smako) da
“danarCeni msoflio”.

72
momuSaveTa Sromis anazRaurebas + wminda gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da
importze + mTliani mogeba + mTliani Sereuli Semosavlebi.

cxrili 5. mSp-is gaangariSeba ganawilebiTi meTodiT, saqarTvelo, 20119

mSp-is gaangariSeba ganawilebiTi meTodiT 2011

resursebi
mTliani Sida produqti 24,344.0
(-) ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba 2,660.8
(=) Sida produqti, wminda 21,683.2

gamoyeneba
Sromis anazRaureba 7,755.2
xelfasebi 6,204.2
socialuri anaricxebi 1,551.0
gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da importze 3,751.5
gadasaxadebi produqciaze 3,492.7
damatebuli Rirebulebisa da aqcizis gadasaxadebi 3,399.5
gadasaxadi importze dRg-sa da aqcizis garda 93.2
sxva gadasaxadebi warmoebaze 258.8
(-) subsidiebi produqciaze 124.1
mTliani saoperacio mogeba 8,402.0

mTliani Sereuli Semosavali 4,559.4

saoperacio mogeba, wminda 5,979.1

(-) daricxuli cveTa Sinameurneobebis seqtorSi 237.9
Sereuli Semosavali, wminda 4,321.5

saboloo moxmarebis meTodiT mSp gaiangariSeba rogorc saboloo

moxmarebisa da mTliani dazogvis jami eqsport-importis saldos
gaTvaliswinebiT.

cxrili 5. mSp-is gaangariSeba saboloo moxmarebis meTodiT, saqarTvelo,

201110

mSp-is gaangariSeba saboloo moxmarebis meTodiT 2011

mTliani Sida produqti sabazro fasebSi 24,344.0

mTliani Sida produqtis gamoyeneba

9
http://geostat.ge/?action=page&p_id=118&lang=geo
10
http://geostat.ge/?action=page&p_id=118&lang=geo

73
 xarjebi saboloo moxmarebaze 22,448.4
Sinameurneobebi 17,882.2
Smako (Sinameurneobebis momsaxure arakomerciuli 135.6
organizaciebi)
saxelmwifo marTvis organoebi 4,430.5
individualuri saqoneli da momsaxureba 1,055.1
koleqtiuri momsaxureba 3,375.4
(+) mTliani kapitalis formireba 6,368.0
ZiriTadi kapitalis mTliani formireba 5,474.3
maragebis cvlileba 893.7
faseulobis SeZena, wminda ..
(+) saqonlisa da momsaxurebis eqsporti 8,822.9
saqonlis eqsporti 5,475.9
momsaxurebis eqsporti 3,346.9
(-) saqonlisa da momsaxurebis importi 13,334.2
saqonlis importi 11,217.2
momsaxurebis importi 2,116.9
(+) statistikuri gansxvaveba 39.0
(=) mTliani Sida produqti sabazro fasebSi 24,344.0

gamoyenebis stadiaze gamoTvlili mSp tolia saboloo moxmarebisTvis

SeZenili saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebulebisa moxmarebis fasebSi. eas-
is angariSebSi mSp-is saboloo moxmareba iyofa Semdeg muxlebad: piradi
da saxelmwifo moxmareba, mTliani dagroveba (sabrunavi saSualebebis
maragebis mateba, kapitaldabandebebi) da eqsport-importis saldo.

3.3. mSp-is gadaangariSeba mudmiv fasebSi

ekonomistebi da Jurnalistebi mSp-is analizis dros xSirad iyeneben

termins: ” mSp-is mateba”, nacvlad terminisa “mSp-is realuri mateba”.
magaliTad, ukve tipurad iqca winadadeba: “mSp-is matebam 2% Seadgina”,
nacvlad “mSp-is realurma matebam 2% Seadgina”. amgvar uzustobas xSirad
mivyavarT iseT ucnaur terminologiamde, rogoricaa magaliTad,
“uaryofiTi mateba”, rac TavisTavad ukavSirdeba mSp-is moculobis
Semcirebas. aRsaniSnavia, rom erovnul angariSTa sistemaSi upiratesobas
aniWeben termins “mSp-is moculobas” nacvlad “realuri mSp”-isa, radgan
miiCneven, rom inflacia iseTive “realuria”, rogorc zrda.

74
makroekonomikis ani da bani swored imaSi mdgomareobs, rom gavarkvioT,
mimdinare fasebSi gamosaxuli makroekonomikuri agregatebis cvlilebaSi
ra wilebi modis raodenobasa da fasebis cvlilebaze. dauSvaT, makaronis
warmoeba pirvel wels 100 000 dolaria, xolo meore wels _ 110 000.
CvenTvis mniSvnelovania gavarkvioT, ram gamoiwvia es cvlileba, radgan Tu
raodenobrivi mateba dadebiTi momentia, fasebis cvlilebas uaryofiTi
movlenebi axlavs Tan. erovnul angariSianobaSi am ori faqtoris
zegavlenis gasamijnad da Sesafaseblad or komponents iyeneben: a)
raodenobrivi cvlilebis komponenti (“reluri mSp”, an “mSp-is moculoba”)
da b) fasebis cvlilebis indikatori, an “mSp-is deflatori”).
gavixsenoT adre motanili magaliTidan, rom 100 000 dolaris Rirebulebis
makaroni 100 tona makaronis (raodenoba) namravlia 1 000 dolarze (1 tonis
fasi). swored aseve, mSp-is zrdis tempis indeqsi mimdinare fasebSi mSp-is
moculobis zrdis indeqsis namravlia mSp-is deflatoris zrdis indeqsze.

q p
1 1

q p  q p
1 0 1 1
(2.1)
q p
0 0 q p q p
0 0 1 0

aqedan gamomdinare, erT SemTxvevaSi Cven vaxdenT mimdinare fasebSi

gamosaxuli mSp-is “deflatirebas” (e.i. gayofas) fasis indikatoriT (mSp-is
deflatori) mSp-is raodenobrivi indikatoris (mSp-is moculoba) misaRebad.
SebrunebiT, mSp-is mimdinare Rirebulebis misaRebad xdeba mSp-is
moculobis “inflatireba” fasis faqtoriT.

q p1 1

q p 1 1

q p1 0
deflireba (2.2)
q p0 0 q p 1 0 q p0 0

q p  q p
1 0 1 1
=
q p 1 1
inflireba (2.3)
q p q p
0 0 1 0 q p 0 0

aRsaniSnavia, rom es toloba gamoiyeneba mSp-is absoluturi maCveneblebis

mimarTac. magaliTad, raime sabaziso wlis mSp-is moculoba mln
dolarebSi(larebSi) tolia mimdinare wlis fasebSi gamosaxuli mSp-is
donis ganayofisa deflatorze, anu fasebis indeqsze. rodesac es operacia
Sesruldeba, mSp-is moculobis sabaziso weli fasebis indeqsis sabaziso
wels eTanadeba.

75
 q p
q p q p :
1 1
= (2.4)
q p
1 0 1 1
1 0

makroekonomikur cxrilebSi Zalian cota adgili eTmoba mimdinare fasebSi

asaxul mSp-s. aq ZiriTadi aqcentebi keTdeba realur mSp-sa da
deflatorze. Tumca mimdinare fasebSi asaxuli mSp mravali mniSvnelovani
agregatisaTvis Sesadar bazad (mniSvnelad) gamoiyeneba, magaliTad,
biujetis deficitTan, eqsport-importis saldosTan, erovnul dazogvasTan
da a.S. koeficientebi, romlebic miiReba mimdinare fasebSi gamosaxuli
mricxvelisa da mniSvnelis gayofis Sedegad, saerTaSoriso
SedarebebisTvis gamoiyeneba, radgan sxva SemTxvevaSi isini damokidebuli
iqneba qveynis sidideze.
ganvixiloT germaniis magaliTze damokidebuleba Semdeg agregatebs Soris:
mSp mimdinare fasebSi, mSp-is moculoba da mSp-is deflatori. aq ori
agregati absolutur sidideebSia gamosaxuli, kerZod, mlrd evroebSi.
naxazi 1. germaniis mSp-is moculoba da Rirebuleba 2004 wels11

__ mSp mimdinare fasebSi __ mSp 2000 wlis

fasebSi

rogorc grafikidan Cans, 2004 wels germaniis mSp mimdinare fasebSi

daaxloebiT 2 200 mlrd evro iyo, xolo ucvlel fasebSi _ daaxloebiT 2
100 mlrd evro. deflatori (inflacia) mlrd evroebSi ar aisaxeba da
amitom ar aris datanili naxazze, Tumca is SeiZleba warmovidginoT
rogorc xazebs Soris dacileba mimdinare fasebSi Sefasebul mSp-sa da

11
OECD (2006), National Accounts of OECD Countries: Volume I, Main Aggregates, 1993-2004, 2006 Edition, OECD, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/142154615437

76
realur mSp-s Soris. 2000 wlis Semdeg diagramis wrfeebs Soris dacileba
inflaciis maniSnebelia. aRsaniSnavia, rom naxazze 1. orive wrfe erTmaneTs
exeba 2000 wels. es imis gamo moxda, rom mSp-is moculoba 2000 wlis
sabaziso fasebSia gadayvanili. aRsaniSnavia, rom sabaziso weli SeiZleba
icvlebodes, radgan ekonomistebi xSirad mimarTaven agregatebis
ganaxlebas, Tumca amas ganmsazRvreli mniSvneloba ara aqvs, rodesac
zrdis tempebis Sedareba xdeba.
cxrilidan Cans, rom 2000-03 wlebSi Zalian mcire variacia SeiniSneba
germaniis deflatorSi, radgan inflacia dabali iyo, TiTqmis 2%-is qvemoT.
SedarebisTvis mocemulia agreTve samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsis(sfi)
variaciac. es indeqsic agreTve inflaciis maxasiaTebelia da ufro
cnobilia, umeteswilad imis gamo, rom yovelTviurad iangariSeba da
mosaxleobis interesis sferoSi xvdeba, radgan moxmarebas ukavSirdeba.
erTi mxriv, deflatori mocvis xarisxiT ufro srulia, radgan is
warmoebis saSualebebsac moicavs, Tumca meore mxriv naklebad srulia,
radgan mxolod Sida inflacias moicavs da importis fasebis cvlileba
pirdapir ar gaiTvaliswineba. aRsaniSnavia is faqtic, rom qveynebis mcire
gamonaklisis garda, romlebic erovnul angariSebs yovelTviurad
angariSoben, ZiriTadad mSp-is deflatori mxolod kvartalurad
gaiangariSeba.

cxrili 6. germaniis mSp-is deflatori da samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

mSp-is deflatori 103.07 104.43 106.02 107.20 108.20 109.02 110.03

-0.3 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9
saSualo wliuri mateba %
105.47 107.48 108.93 110.07 111.94 113.40 114.11
samomxmareblo fasebis
indeqsi
1.4 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.6
saSualo wliuri mateba %

rac Seexeba saqarTvelos, rogorc cxrilidan da grafikidan Cans, 2008

wlamde rogorc deflatori, ise samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi zrdadi
dinamikiT xasiaTdeboda, ramac mniSvnelovani sxvaoba gamoiwvia mSp-is
moculobasa da mimdinare RirebulebaSi.

cxrili 7. saqarTvelos mSp mimdinare da 2003 wlis ucvlel fasebSi13

12
OECD (2004), OECD Economic Outlook, December No. 76, Volume 2004, Issue 2, OECD, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/454532272722

77
 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
mSp
mimdinare
11620.9 13789.9 16993.8 19074.9 17986.0 20743.4 24344.0
ფასებში,
მლნ.
ლარი
მშპ
მუდმივ
2003
9377.0 10276.7 12208.8 12491.4 12019.7 12771.3 13687.5
წლის
ფასებში,
მლნ.
ლარი

naxazi 2. saqarTvelos mSp mimdinare da 2003 wlis ucvlel fasebSi

sainteresoa 2009 wlis maCveneblebi. miuxedavad imisa, rom deflatoris

kleba dafiqsirda da saSualowliuri inflacia 2%-ic ar iyo, mSp-is orive
agregats Soris mainc mniSvnelovani dacileba SenarCunda, rac SemdgomSi
ufro gaRrmavda gazrdili inflaciis safuZvelze.

cxrili 8. mSp-is deflatorisa da samomxmareblo fasebis dinamika

saqarTveloSi14, 2005-2011

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

13
http://geostat.ge/?action=page&p_id=118&lang=geo
14
http://geostat.ge/?action=page&p_id=118&lang=geo

78
 mSp-is deflatori,% 7.9 8.5 9.7 9.7 -2.0 8.5 9.5

samomxmareblo fasebis 9.2 9.2 10.0 1.7 7.1 8.5

indeqsi
rogorc ukve davrwmundiT, mSp-is fizikuri moculobis (realuri mSp-is)
dinamikis SeswavlisaTvis aucilebelia fasebis faqtoris eliminireba.
amisaTvis mSp-s gadaafaseben mudmiv fasebSi, anu mas gamosaxaven sabazisod
miCneul romelime mimdinare fasSi. miiReba mSp-is fizikuri moculobis
indeqsi, romelic gamosaxavs mSp-is moculobis cvlilebas erTsa da imave
mudmiv fasSi, magaliTad, saqarTveloSi amJamad sabazisod miCneulia 2003
wlis fasebi:

Iq 
p q
2003 1
, (2.5)
p 2003q 2003

sadac p q
2003 2003 _ mSp-is sabaziso periodis moculobaa mudmiv 2003 wlis
fasebSi,
p q
2003 1 _ mSp-is mimdinare periodis moculobaa mudmiv fasebSi (realuri
mSp).
naxazi 3. mSp-is realuri zrda saqarTveloSi, 2005-2013

rogorc vxedavT, saqarTveloSi realuri mSp-is matebis tempebi sakmaod

arastabiluria, rac savsebiT damaxasiaTebelia ganviTarebadi ekonomikebis
mqone qveynebisaTvis, Tumca aRniSnuli ver qmnis mimzidvel garemos
ucxouri investiciebis ganxorcielebisaTvis. Sedarebis mizniT SemTxveviT
SevarCioT msoflios qveynebi da SevadaroT maTi mSp-ebis matebis tempebis
trendebi.

79
 naxazi 4. sxvadasxva qveynebis mSp-ebis matebis tempebi15 2002-12 wlebSi, %

12

10

8
Italy

6 Japan
Netherlands
4 Norway
Portugal
2
Spain
Switzerland
0
Turkey
-2 United Kingdom
United States
-4

-6

-8

rogorc aRmoCnda, mocemuli qveynebidan yvelaze maRali tempebiT TurqeTi

gamoirCeva, yvelaze maRali mateba daaxloebiT 10%-is farglebSia (2007
wels saqarTveloSi es maCvenebeli 12%-sac gadascda), Tumca qveynebis
umravlesoba 1-3.5%-iani matebis farglebSia, Tu mxedvelobaSi ar miviRebT
2009 wlis vardnas, rac _2_6%-is farglebSi ganxorcielda, xolo
saqarTveloSi (_3.8%)-s ar gascilebia (gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom garkveuli
mdgradobis SenarCuneba mainc moxerxda, miuxedavad ruseTis mier
ganxorcielebuli agresiisa).

mSp-is gadaangariSebis meTodebi mudmiv fasebSi

mSp mudmiv fasebSi gadaangariSeba warmoebisa da saboloo moxmarebis

stadiebze xdeba. gansxvaveba maT Soris minimaluri unda iyos.

saerTod, statistikur praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba gadaangariSebis sami meTodi:

15

80
1. pirdapiri gadaangariSebis meTodi

warmoebuli an moxmarebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis raodenobas

naturalur gamosaxulebaSi amravleben mis sabaziso fasze da miiReba
mimdinare periodis gamoSvebis moculoba mudmiv fasebSi:

q1 po = q1  po , (2.6)

es meTodi gamoiyeneba maSin, Tu produqcia sakmaod erTgvarovania.

2. deflirebis meTodi

warmoebuli an moxmarebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis raodenobas

mimdinare fasebSi yofen Sesabamis fasebis indeqsze (paaSes indeqsi).
Secdomebis Tavidan acilebis mizniT deflireba mimdinareobs
maqsimalurad detalizebul doneze.

p q 1 1 :  p   p0 q1
, (2.7)

 p1q1
Ip 
sadac  p0 q1 paaSes indeqsia

3. eqstrapolaciis meTodi

sabaziso periodis produqciis moculoba Sesadar fasebSi

mravldeba produqciis fizikuri moculobis indeqsze:

 po qo  I q =  po q1 , (2.8)

Tu ara gvaqvs monacemebi naturalur sidideebSi gamosaxuli produqciis

moculobis Sesaxeb, eqstrapolaciis meTodis gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi
fizikuri moculobis indeqsi icvleba dasaqmebulTa ricxovnobis indeqsiT,
an Sesabamisi naturaluri maCveneblis indeqsiT (moswavleTa raodenoba,
pacientebis ricxvi, gamomuSavebuli dro da a.S.).
saqarTveloSi mSp-is mudmiv fasebSi gasaangariSeblad wina wlis
maCvenebels amravleben Sesabamisi periodis realuri zrdis indeqsze16.

4. ormagi deflirebis meTodi

16
saqarTvelos erovnuli angariSebi 2011 (statistikuri krebuli), Tbilisi, 2013, gv.14.

81
mSp-is moculobis Sefaseba mudmiv fasebSi SesaZlebelia saqmianobis
saxeebis mixedviT warmoebuli mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebis (mudmiv
fasebSi) Sejamebis saSualebiT. am SemTxvevaSi SeiZleba gamoviyenoT ormagi
deflatirebis meTodi, romlis arsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom cal-calke
gadaiTvlian mTlian gamoSvebas da Sualedur moxmarebas mudmiv fasebSi da
Semdeg akleben erTmaneTs.
mSp-is mudmiv fasebSi gadayvana saqarTveloSi jerjerobiT xdeba mxolod
warmoebis meTodiT gaangariSebuli maCveneblebis mixedviT ormagi
deflirebis gziT. es xorcieldeba fasebis Sesabamisi indeqsebis meSveobiT,
saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT mTliani gamoSvebisa da Sualeduri
moxmarebis cal-calke deflirebiT da Semdeg maTi sxvaobis gamoTvliT17.

3.4. erovnuli Semosavali

eas-is meore mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia erovnuli Semosavali, romelic

SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis
gaTvaliswinebiT (mTliani erovnuli Semosavali), (meS) da ZiriTadi
kapitalis moxmarebis gamoklebis Semdeg _ wminda erovnuli Semosavali
(weS).
erovnuli Semosavali _ warmoadgens mocemuli qveynis rezidentebis mier
miRebuli pirveladi Semosavlebis (Sromis anazRaureba, mogeba, Sereuli
Semosavali, Semosavlebi sakuTrebidan, gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da
importze) jams.
erovnuli Semosavali gansxvavdeba Sida produqtisagan rezidentebis mier
sazRvargareTidan miRebuli da ararezidentebisaTvis sazRvargareT
gadacemuli pirveladi Semosavlebis saldos sididiT. amgvarad, erovnuli
Semosavali gansxvavdeba Sida produqtisagan rogorc Sinaarsobrivad, aseve
raodenobrivi TvalsazrisiT. Sinaarsobrivi TvalsazrisiT am or
maCvenebels Soris gansxvaveba imaSi mdgomareobs, rom Sida produqti
(mTliani an wminda) axasiaTebs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis nakadebs
(saboloos), xolo erovnuli Semosavali – Semosavlebis nakadebs
(pirvelads). raodenobrivi TvalsazrisiT, rogorc ukve aRvniSneT, isini
gansxvavdebian sazRvargareTidan miRebuli (sazRvargareT gadacemuli)
pirveladi Semosavlebis saldos sididiT.
makroekonomikuri parametrebis Sefasebisas erTmaneTisgan unda ganvasxvaoT
terminebi „Sida“ da „erovnuli“. mTliani erovnuli Semosavali, romelsac
adre mTliani erovnuli produqtis saxelwodebiT icnobdnen (da dResac
Cveulebis gamo zogjer ase iyeneben) zomavs rezidentebis mTlian
17
saqarTvelos erovnuli angariSebi 2011 (statistikuri krebuli), Tbilisi, 2013, gv.13

82
Semosavals, amrigad, mSp-is gansazRvraSi amosavali kategoria qveynis
ekonomikuri teritoriaa, xolo meS-Si ki – rezidentoba.

cxrili 9. germaniis, luqsemburgisa da irlandiis mSp da meS18

2010 weli germania luqsemburgi irlandia

mTliani Sida 2 476 500 40 267 155 992
produqti
+ danarCeni
msofliodan
miRebuli pirveladi 183 530 75 880 58 632
Semosavlebi
_ danarCeni
msofliosTvis
gadaxdili 137 580 87 514 85 323
pirveladi
Semosavlebi
=mTliani erovnuli 2 522 750 28 634 129 301
Semosavali
gansxvaveba mSp-sa da 1.87 -28.9 -17.1
meS-s Soris (%)

aRsaniSnavia, rom did qveynebSi gansxvaveba mSp-sa da meS-s Soris didi ar

aris (mag. germania 1.87%, 2003 wels ki meS meti iyo mSp-ze 0.7%-iT), magram
didia patara qveynebisTvis, rogoricaa mag. luqsemburgi, romelic Tavisi
mSp-is did nawils xelfasisa da sxva pirveladi Semosavlebis saxiT uxdis
„danarCen msoflios“. aRsaniSnavia, rom am qveyanaSi mSp-is zrdis tendencia
meS-Tan SedarebiT wlidan wlamde izrdeba: Tu 2003 wels es gansxvaveba
mxolod 11.5% iyo, 2010 wlisaTvis ukve 28.9%-s miaRwia. pirvelad
SemosavlebSi Sedis agreTve luqsemburgSi investirebuli Tanxebidan
miRebuli sargebeli. miuxedavad imisa, rom luqsemburgi mniSvnelovan
sargebels iRebs garedanac, is 15.3%-iT naklebia gacemul Semosavlebze.
luqsemburgis msgavsad, irlandiac maRal dividendebs uxdis danarCen
msoflios. irlandiaSi mravladaa amerikuli multinacionaluri firmebis
mSobel kompaniebi, romlebic nawilobriv gadasaxadebis gamo saqmianoben
irlandiaSi. Sedegad, irlandiis meS 17.1%-iT naklebia mSp-ze da es
Tanafardobac 2003 welTan SedarebiT TiTqmis 1%-iT aris gazrdili.
luqsemburgsa da irlandiaSi meS naklebia mSp-ze, xolo Sveicariasa da
germaniaSi sapirispiro situaciaa. 2003 wlidan dawyebuli, 2008 wlis garda,
Sveicariis meS yovelTvis aWarbebda mSp-s. germaniaSi meS-is gadameteba mSp-
ze 2004 wlidan daiwyo da dRemde grZeldeba.

18
OECD (2006), National Accounts of OECD Countries: Volume I, Main Aggregates, 1993-2004, 2006 Edition,
OECD, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/783541142830

83
 rac Seexeba saqarTvelos, 2003-2007 wlebSi meS sWarbobda mSp-s, 2008
wlidan ki daiwyo uku procesi, romelic dRemde grZeldeba.
cxrili 10. saqarTvelos mSp da meS19

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

mTliani Sida 8,564.1 9,824.3 11,620.9 13,789.9 16,993.8 19,074.9 17,986.0 20,743.4 24,344.0
produqti

(+) pirveladi 380.5 478.2 477.6 598.5 803.4 760.1 706.1 742.8 1273.7
Semosavlebis
miReba danarCeni
msofliodan
(-) pirveladi 313.3 297.7 306.8 286.0 736.8 1016.9 902.5 1383.4 1986.0
Semosavlebis
gadaxda
danarCeni
msofliosaTvis
(=) mTliani 8,631.3 10,004.9 11,791.7 14,102.5 17,060.5 18,818.0 17,789.5 20,102.8 23,631.7
erovnuli
Semosavali

gansxvaveba mSp- -0.8 -1.8 -1.5 -2.3 -0.3 0.1 1.09 3.04 2.93
sa da meS-s
Soris (%)

naxazze naTlad Cans es procesi. marTalia, did ryevebs am periodSi

adgili ar hqonia, magram aSkaraa, rom Semosavlebis gadinebis procesi ukve
tendenciis saxes iRebs (nax. ), rac imaSi gamoixateba, rom 2010 wlisaTvis
pirveladi Semosavlebis gadaxdam danarCeni msofliosTvis 1.6-jer
gadaaWarba Semosavlebis miRebas. Tu aseTi tempebiT gagrZeldeba es
procesi, 2020 wlisaTvis gadaxdili Semosavlebi 2-jer gadaaWarbebs
miRebuls da mSp-s zrdadi Tanafardoba meS-Tan SedarebiT Seuqcevad
xasiaTs miiRebs.

naxazi 5. mSp-sa da meS-is dinamika saqarTveloSi 2003-11 ww20.

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84
 naxazi 6. sazRvargareTidan miRebuli da sazRvargareTisTvis gadaxdili
pirveladi Semosavlebis dinamika saqarTveloSi 2003-11 ww21.

kvlav davubrundeT mTlian da wminda makroekonomikur maCveneblebs.

warmoebis procesis ganxorcielebisaTvis saWiro faqtorebia: samuSao Zala,
saqoneli da momsaxureba (Sualeduri moxmareba) da kapitali (manqana-
mowyobilobebi). es faqtorebi Seadgenen danaxarjebs. wminda
makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis misaRebad aucilebelia mTliani
damatebuli Rirebulebis gaangariSebidan gamovricxoT ZiriTadi kapitalis

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85
(Senobebi, nagebobebi, Carxebi, danadgarebi, satransporto saSualebebi, muSa
da produqtuli pirutyvi da sxva) moxmareba. Sedegad miviRebT wminda
damatebul Rirebulebas. wminda Sida produqti wSp = ∑ wminda damatebuli
Rirebulebebi. wSp da weS, miuxedavad imisa, rom ufro iSviaTad
gamoiyeneba, vidre mSp da meS, ufro ukeT asaxaven warmoebisa da
Semosavlebis masStabebs, Tumca zemoT motanili mizezebisa gamo maTi
gamoyeneba SezRudulia. es mizezebi SeiZleba orad davajgufoT: pirveli,
ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis gaangariSebis meTodebi rTulia da
sxvadasxva qveyanaSi gansxvavebulia, rac Sesadarisobis problemebs qmnis
da meore, qveynebis ranJirebisas an zrdis tempebis analizis dros mSp-sa
da wSp-s Soris gansxvavebebi didi ar aris da es daskvnebze gavlenas ver
moaxdens. cxrilSi motanilia dinamikaSi weS-is gaangariSebis etapebi
saqarTvelos erovnuli angariSebis meTodologiis mixedviT:

cxrili 11. wminda erovnuli Semosavlis gaangariSebis safexurebi

saqarTveloSi22

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

mTliani Sida 8,564.1 9,824.3 11,620.9 13,789.9 16,993.8 19,074.9 17,986.0 20,743.4 24,344.0
produqti

mTliani 8,631.3 10,004.9 11,791.7 14,102.5 17,060.5 18,818.0 17,789.5 20,102.8 23,631.7
erovnuli
Semosavali
(-) ZiriTadi 932.9 976.8 1,113.5 1,306.4 1,617.0 1,758.0 1,751.4 2,126.8 2,660.8
kapitalis
moxmareba
(=) wminda 7,698.4 9,028.0 10,678.3 12,796.1 15,443.4 17,060.0 16,038.1 17,976.0 20,970.9
erovnuli
Semosavali

3.5. ekonomikis mTliani saoperacio mogeba da Sereuli Semosavlebi

ekonomikis mTliani saoperacio mogeba (emsg) yvela dargisa an seqtoris

mogebaTa jamis tolia. es aris damatebuli Rirebulebis is nawili,
romelic rCeba mwarmoebels xarjebis (Sromis anazRaureba, gadasaxadebi
warmoebasa da importze) dafarvis Semdeg. am muxlis saSualebiT izomeba
warmoebis mogeba (an zarali) sakuTrebidan miRebuli Semosavlebis
gaTvaliswinebamde.

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86
ekonomikis wminda saoperacio mogeba (ewsm) eas-Si aris makroekonomikuri
mogebis maCvenebeli, romelic gaiangariSeba rogorc sxvaoba ekonomikis
mTlian mogebasa da ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebas Soris.

Sinameurneobebis arakorporirebuli sawarmoebisaTvis, sadac adgili

SeiZleba hqondes aunazRaurebel Sromas, mogeba icvleba Sereuli
SemosavlebiT, radgan es muxli Seicavs rogorc mewarmis Semosavlebs, ise
xarjebsac.

cxrili 12. mTliani da wminda saoperacio mogebisa da Sereuli

Semosavlebis dinamika saqarTveloSi,23 2006-2011

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Sromis anazRaureba 2,293.2 3,252.3 4,422.7 5,227.3 6,010.3 7,755.2

xelfasebi 1,790.3 2,530.3 3,317.0 4,181.9 4,808.3 6,204.2
socialuri anaricxebi 502.8 722.0 1,105.7 1,045.5 1,202.1 1,551.0
gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da importze 1,919.5 2,587.6 2,864.2 2,752.3 3,089.5 3,751.5
gadasaxadebi produqciaze 1,800.6 2,454.3 2,639.3 2,530.9 2,834.3 3,492.7
damatebuli Rirebulebisa da 1,668.3 2,402.3 2,587.5 2,495.0 2,763.9 3,399.5
aqcizis gadasaxadebi
gadasaxadi importze dRg-sa da 132.4 52.0 51.9 35.9 70.4 93.2
aqcizis garda
sxva gadasaxadebi warmoebaze 118.9 133.3 224.8 221.4 255.2 258.8
(-) subsidiebi produqciaze 57.6 71.6 86.3 91.3 105.3 124.1
mTliani saoperacio mogeba 6,747.6 8,264.2 8,780.2 6,439.8 7,881.9 8,402.0

mTliani Sereuli Semosavali 2,887.2 2,961.3 3,094.0 3,657.9 3,866.9 4,559.4

saoperacio mogeba, wminda 5,571.0 6,798.5 7,194.7 4,870.6 5,974.2 5,979.1

(-) daricxuli cveTa Sinameurneobebis 129.8 151.4 172.5 182.2 219.0 237.9
seqtorSi
Sereuli Semosavali, wminda 2,757.4 2,810.0 2,921.5 3,475.7 3,647.9 4,321.5

3.6. gankargvadi Semosavali

Semosavlebis ganawilebisa da gadanawilebis Sedegad warmoiqmneba

erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavali (mTliani _ megS, an wminda _ wegS),
romelic gansxvavdeba erovnuli Semosavlisagan sazRvargareTidan
miRebuli da sazRvargareT gadacemuli mimdinare transfertebis saldoTi.

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87
aseT transfertebs miekuTvneba: humanitaruli daxmareba, gadasaxadebi
Semosavlebze, saCuqrebi sazRvargareT mudmivad mcxovrebi naTesavebisagan
da sxv.

cxrili 13. wminda erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavlis gaangariSebis

meTodologia saqarTveloSi24

mTliani erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavali (megS) aris mSp sabazro fasebSi

 wminda saldo erovnul ekonomikasa da danarCen msoflios Soris
Semdegi elementebis mixedviT: gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da importze,
subsidiebi, Sromis anazRaureba, Semosavlebi sakuTrebidan da samewarmeo
saqmianobidan, dazRvevis operaciebi da sxva mimdinare transfertebi.

megS _ es aris realuri Semosavlebis sazomi, romelic gamoiyeneba rogorc

saboloo moxmarebisaTvis, ise dazogvisaTvis, e.i. es aris yvela Semosavlis
wyaro, romelic aucilebelia ekonomikis Semdgomi ganviTarebisa da
erovnuli simdidris zrdisaTvis.

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88
3.7. mTliani danazogi

erovnuli saboloo moxmareba _ es aris Sinameurneobebis, saxelmwifo

marTvis organoebisa da Sinameurneobebis momsaxure arakomerciuli
organizaciebis(Smako) xarjebi saboloo moxmarebaze.

erovnuli danazogi _ es aris gankargvadi Semosavlis is nawili, romelic

ar aris daxarjuli saboloo moxmarebaze da SeiZleba mimarTul iqnes
dagrovebis dafinansebisaTvis.

cxrili 14. wminda danazogis, kapitalis mTliani dagrovebisa da wminda

dakrediteba/sesxebis gaangariSebis meTodologia saqarTveloSi25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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89
 danazogi da kapitaluri transfertebi erTobliobaSi qmnian erovnuli
dafinansebis wyaroebs investiciebisaTvis, romlebic Sedgeba Semdegi
elementebisagan:

1. ZiriTadi kapitalis mTliani dagroveba.

2. materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebis cvlileba.

3. faseulobebis wminda SeZena, anu SedarebiT xangrZlivi moxmarebis

sagnebis (saiuveliro nawarmi, xelovnebis nimuSebi, antikvariati da sxva)
SeZena.

4. arasawarmoo materialuri aqtivebis wminda SeZena (miwa, sasargeblo

wiaRiseuli sabadoebi da sxva).

5. arasawarmoo aramaterialuri aqtivebis wminda SeZena (patentebi,

saavtoro uflebebi da sxva).P

investiciebis pirveli sami elementi qmnis mTlian dagrovebas.

mTliani dagroveba gviCvenebs rezidenti erTeulebis mier saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis wminda SeZenas (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis mimdinare SeZena
mimdinare moxmarebis gareSe). mTliani dagroveba moicavs Semdeg
elementebs:

 ZiriTadi kapitalis mTliani dagroveba;

 materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis mateba;

 danaxarjebi faseulobaTa (saiuveliro nakeTobebi, antikvariati,

suraTebi da a.S.) SeZenaze.

ZiriTadi kapitalis mTliani dagroveba warmoadgens rezidenti erTeulebis

mier ganxorcielebul dabandebebs Semdegi mimarTulebebiT:

 ZiriTadi kapitalis SeZena.

 danaxarjebi materialuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebis gaumjobesebaze.

 arawarmoebul aqtivebze sakuTrebis uflebis gadacemasTan

dakavSirebuli danaxarjebi.

materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebis cvlileba moicavs:

sawarmoo maragebs, daumTavrebel warmoebas, mza produqciasa da saqonels
xelaxali gayidvisaTvis.

90
faseulobaTa wminda Sesyidva, materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis
maragebis mateba da ZiriTadi kapitalis mTliani dagroveba jamSi qmnis
mTliani dagrovebis maCvenebels.

3.8. wminda dakrediteba da sesxeba

eas-is Semdegi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia wminda dakrediteba/wminda

sesxebi.

wminda dakrediteba (mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis) mocemuli qveynis

rezidentebis finansuri aqtivebis gadametebaa mocemuli qveynis
rezidentebis finansuri valdebulebebis jamze.

wminda sesxebi (mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis) _ es kategoria wminda

dakreditebis simetriulia. is uCvenebs mocemuli qveynis rezidentebis mier
sazRvargareTidan miRebuli resursebis moculobas.

eas-is ZiriTad makroekonomikur maCveneblebs Soris urTierTkavSiri

SeiZleba gamovsaxoT Semdegi sqemiT:

sqema 1. urTierTkavSiri ZiriTad makroekonomikur maCveneblebs Soris

mTliani Sida produqti

(+) pirveladi Semosavlebis miReba danarCeni msofliodan
(-) pirveladi Semosavlebis gadaxda danarCeni msofliosaTvis
(=) mTliani erovnuli Semosavali
(-) ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba
(=) wminda erovnuli Semosavali
(+) mimdinare transfertebis miReba danarCeni msofliodan
(-) mimdinare transfertebis gadaxda danarCeni msofliosaTvis

(=) wminda erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavali

(-) saboloo moxmareba
(=) wminda danazogi
(+) kapitaluri transfertebis miReba danarCeni msofliodan
(-) kapitaluri transfertebis gadaxda danarCeni
msofliosaTvis
(=) kapitalis wminda Rirebulebis cvlileba danazogebisa da
kapitaluri transfertebis Sedegad
(-) mTliani kapitalis formireba
(+) ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba
(-) arawarmoebuli arafinansuri aqtivebis wminda Sesyidva
(-) statistikuri gansxvaveba

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 (=) wminda dakrediteba (+), wminda sesxeba(-)

cxrili 15. urTierTkavSiris dinamika makroekonomikur agregatebs Soris,

saqarTvelo26, mln lari

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

mTliani Sida produqti 13,789.9 16,993.8 19,074.9 17,986.0 20,743.4 24,344.0

(+) pirveladi Semosavlebis miReba danarCeni msofliodan 598.5 803.4 760.1 706.1 742.8 1273.7
(-) pirveladi Semosavlebis gadaxda danarCeni 286.0 736.8 1016.9 902.5 1383.4 1986.0
msofliosaTvis
(=) mTliani erovnuli Semosavali 14,102.5 17,060.5 18,818.0 17,789.5 20,102.8 23,631.7
(-) ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba 1,306.4 1,617.0 1,758.0 1,751.4 2,126.8 2,660.8
(=) wminda erovnuli Semosavali 12,796.1 15,443.4 17,060.0 16,038.1 17,976.0 20,970.9
(+) mimdinare transfertebis miReba danarCeni msofliodan 1,029.1 1,280.2 1,718.3 1735.3 2108.3 2431.5
(-) mimdinare transfertebis gadaxda danarCeni 111.7 133.7 121.7 118.6 151.7 217.6
msofliosaTvis
(=) wminda erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavali 13,713.4 16,589.9 18,656.6 17,654.8 19,932.6 23,184.8
(-) saboloo moxmareba 12,972.0 15,731.9 19,595.8 19,075.2 19,898.2 22,448.4
(=) wminda danazogi 741.5 858.0 -939.2 -1420.4 34.4 736.5
(+) kapitaluri transfertebis miReba danarCeni 301.3 213.3 157.5 305.4 368.7 260.5
msofliodan
(-) kapitaluri transfertebis gadaxda danarCeni 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4
msofliosaTvis
(=) kapitalis wminda Rirebulebis cvlileba danazogebisa 1,040.9 1,070.8 -781.9 -1,115.2 402.9 996.6
da kapitaluri transfertebis Sedegad
(-) mTliani kapitalis formireba 4,255.3 5,447.5 4,951.6 2,342.9 4,477.7 6,368.0
(+) ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba 1,306.4 1,617.0 1,758.0 1,751.4 2,126.8 2,660.8
(-) arawarmoebuli arafinansuri aqtivebis wminda Sesyidva 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(-) statistikuri gansxvaveba -106.9 359.3 208.6 20.2 62.6 39.0
(=) wminda dakrediteba (+), wminda sesxeba(-) -1,801.1 -3,119.0 -4,184.2 -1,726.9 -2,010.6 -2,749.6

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92
 Tema 4. sabazro koniunqturis statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi:

- sabazro koniunqturis statistikis sagani da amocanebi

- koniunqturuli informaciis wyaroebi
- sabazro koniunqturis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema, arsi da
gaangariSebis meTodikasabazro situaciis koniunqturuli Sefasebebi
- riskis faqtorebi bazarze da maTi Sefaseba
- bazris potencialis, tevadobis, gajerebulobis da proporciulobis
gansazRvra
- bazris ganviTarebis, meryeobis da ciklurobis tendenciaTa analizi
- moTxovnisa da miwodebis elastikurobis gazomvis statistikuri meTodebi
- sabazro koniunqturis statistikuri prognozirebis meTodebi

4.1. sabazro koniunqturis statistikis sagani da amocanebi

sabazro koniunqtura aris is konkretuli ekonomikuri situacia,

romelic Seqmnilia bazarze mocemuli momentisaTvis an drois SezRudul
monakveTSi. is yalibdeba socialur-ekonomikuri, demografiuli, bunebrivi,
organizaciuli, sazogadoebriv-politikuri da agreTve SemTxveviT
faqtorTa kompleqsis gavleniT, amdenad sabazro koniunqtura warmoadgens
rTul da swrafad cvalebad movlenas.
sabazro koniunqtura nebismieri firmis mudmivi dakvirvebis sagania,
radgan misi Sefaseba da analizi komerciuli saqmianobis efeqturad
gaZRolis aucilebel pirobas warmoadgens. is aseve aucilebelia

93
samTavrobo organoebisaTvis, radgan mis gareSe SeuZlebelia bazris
regulireba (arapirdapiri gziT) saxelmwifo politikis formireba,
romelic ZiriTadad socialur-ekonomikuri da fiskaluri xasiaTis
Sesabamisi kanonebis SemuSavebiTa da miRebiT xorcieldeba.
sabazro koniunqturis statistikis Seswavlis sagans warmoadgens is
masobrivi procesebi da movlenebi, romelic gansazRvravs konkretul
sabazro situacias da eqvemdebareba raodenobriv da xarisxobriv
Sefasebas.
sabazro koniunqturis statistikis (koniunqturuli statistikis)
mniSvnelovani Taviseburebaa is, rom igi operatiulia da farTod iyenebs
xarisxobriv, atributul da alternatiul Sefasebebs, aRwerilobiTi
xasiaTis mimoxilvas, logikur daskvnebs, winaswari da prognozuli
xasiaTis informacias, saeqsperto Sefasebebs, ganviTarebis scenarebs,
specialur sabazro gamokvlevebis masalebs da sxvadasxva gziT mopovebul
informacias.
yovelive aRniSnuli warmatebiT SeiZleba iqnes gamoyenebuli
statistikur gaangariSebebSi. amdenad, sabazro koniunqturis statistika
konkurentunarianobis amRlebisa da konkurentuli brZolis mZlavr
saSualebad iTvleba, ris gamoc saSualo da msxvil firmebSi koniunqturis
qvedanayofi kargad uTavsdeba statistikisa da marketingis samsaxurebs da
praqtikulad dasaSvebia maTi erT samsaxurSi (ganyofilebaSi)
funqcionireba.
amasTan erTad, miRebulia, rom sabazro koniunqturas sami
principulad gansxvavebuli niSani gaaCnia. esenia: variantuloba,
cikluroba da dinamikuroba. rogorc cnobilia, bazars stiqiurobisaken
mniSvnelovani midrekileba aqvs. amitomacaa, rom mas axasiaTebs meryeoba,
romelic rogorc SemTxveviTi, ise mudmivi xasiaTisaa. is aris cikluri da
sezonuri, agreTve Zalze moqnili, mgrZnobiared reagirebs rogorc
socialur-ekonomikuri xasiaTis faqtorebis nebismier cvlilebebze, ise

94
politikuri da fsiqologiuri tipis faqtorebze. ufro metic, igi
mgrZnobiarea sxvadasxva Worebis mimarTac.
bazari metad dinamikuria da cvalebadi, romlis sazRvrebic
farTovdeba an viwrovdeba masze moqmedi faqtorebisa da nebismieri
struqturuli cvlilebebis zegavleniT. magram mTavari isaa, rom yovelive
amis Sedegad icvleba fasebi da sasaqonlo masis moculoba bazarze, rac
iwvevs sabazro situaciisa da, maSasadame, sabazro koniunqturis
cvlilebas.
sabazro koniunqturis statistikuri Seswavla SeiZleba moxdes
rogorc integrirebuli da diferencirebuli, ise lokaluri bazrebis
mixedviT, agreTve mTeli qveynisa da misi calkeuli regionis, aseve
mTlianad sasaqonlo masisa (momsaxurebis masis) da calkeuli sasaqonlo
bazris mixedviT. amasTan, mxedvelobaSi unda iqnes miRebuli, rom
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris koniunqtura qveynis ekonomikuri
koniunqturisnawils warmoadgens da mWidrodaa dakavSirebuli
investiciebis, fasiani qaRaldebisa da Sromis bazrebTan. aRsaniSnavia isic,
romcalkeul bazarze Seqmnili situacia gavlenas axdens sxva danarCeni
bazrebis situaciis formirebasa da mTlianad ekonomikur koniunqturaze.
sabazro koniunqturis statistikur analizs, operatiulTan erTad,
strategiuli mniSvneloba aqvs. misi mizania gamoavlinos da modelireba
gaukeTos sabazro meqanizmis moqmedebis kanonzomierebas. es aucilebelia
ara marto bazarze Seqmnili situaciis gasarkvevad, aramed imisTvisac, rom
sworad ganisazRvros bazris ganviTarebis mimarTulebebi momavalSi.
amrigad, operatiuli da strategiuli miznebis erToblioba
ayalibebs sabazro koniunqturis statistikis ZiriTad amocanebs, romlebic
aSuqeben sabazro situaciis sxvadasxva mxareebs da elementebs:
 koniunqturuli informaciis mopoveba da damuSaveba;
 damuSavebuli informaciis safuZvelze bazris mdgomareobis
integrirebuli da diferencirebuli Sefaseba;

95
  sabazro situaciis tipologia da bazris mdgomareobis xarisxobrivi
gradacia;
 bazris masStabis (moculobis) daxasiaTeba;
 bazarze damyarebuli ZiriTadi proporciebis Sefaseba da analizi;
 bazris ganviTarebis tendenciebisa da misi dinamikuri mdgradobis
gamovlena, analizi da prognozireba;
 bazris ganviTarebis meryeobis, sezonurobisa da ciklurobis analzi;
 saqmiani aqtiurobis Sefaseba da analizi;
 komerciuli (sabazro) riskis Sefaseba;
 bazris monopolizaciis donisa da konkurenciis intensiurobis
daxasiaTeba.
sabazro koniunqturis an bazris mdgomareobis statistikuri
Seswavlis aRniSnuli amocanebis praqtikuli gadawyveta SeiZleba moxdes
or etapad.
pirvel etapze analizdeba sabazro koniunqtura, romlis drosac
unda daxasiaTdes bazris masStabebi da tipologia, misi mTavari
proporciebi, ZiriTadi parametrebis cvlilebis veqtori da siCqare,
ganviTarebis mdgradobis done.
meore etapze xorcieldeba ufro maRali donis analizi, romlis
procesSic dgindeba is mizez-Sedegobrivi kavSirebi da pirobebi, romelic
gansazRvravs sabazro situacias. yovelive amis safuZvelze xdeba sabazro
koniunqturis da bazris ganviTarebis prognozireba.
aucilebelia aRiniSnos, rom mikrodoneze, calkeuli firmis
mixedviT, firmis mmarTvelobas SeuZlia sabazro koniunqturis statistikis
winaSe dasvas ufro lokaluri da specifikuri amocanebi, romlebic
dafuZnebuli iqneba im dargis an dargTa jgufis Taviseburebebze,
romelSic firma moRvaweobs.
komerciul saqmianobaSi gansxvavebuli amocanebi SeiZleba
ganpirobebuli iyos sabiTumo da sacalo vaWrobis firmebis mixedviT,
savaWro da sazogadoebrivi kvebis firmebis mixedviT, mTlianad

96
momsaxurebis sferosa da misi calkeuli dargebis (qvedargebis) firmebis
mixedviT da a.S. am SemTxvevaSi mTavaria firmis mmarTvelebma sworad
gansazRvron rogorc statistikuri gamokvlevis amocanebi, ise maTi
gadaWris Tanmimdevroba (etapebi), raTa miRebuli Sedegebi maRalefeqturi
iyos.

4.2. koniunqturuli informaciis wyaroebi

sabazro koniunqturis statistikuri analizisaTvis gamoiyeneba

produqciis warmoebis, saqonelbrunvis, sasaqonlo maragis, fasebis,
finansebis statistikis, socialur-demografiuli statistikis da sxva
wyaroebis monacemebi. iseTi informaciis mosapoveblad ki, romelic arc
erT statistikur krebulsa Tu sxva informaciis wyaroSi araa
warmodgenili, gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva xerxi. kerZod, SerCeviTi dakvirvebis
meTodi, specialuri samomento an perioduli gamokvlevebi.
specifikuri koniunqturuli informaciis miRebaSi didi rols
TamaSoben: savaWro agentebi, mosaxleobis azris Semswavleli punqtebi,
TviT savaWro obieqtebi, gamofena-gayidvisa da bazrobebis organizebis
adgilebi da a. S. informaciis wyaro SeiZleba iyos vaWrobis muSaki
(gamyidveli, saqonelmcodne, administraciis muSaki), agreTve informacia,
romelsac Rebulobs marTvis umaRlesi rgolis xelmZRvaneli firmis
qvedanayofebSi momuSaveebisagan.
informaciis mniSvnelovani nawilis mopovebas awarmoebs firmis
marketingis ganyofileba, risTvisac igi xSirad iyenebs sxvadsxva
Sinaarsisa da moculobis specialur marketingul kvlevebs.
amrigad, sabazro koniunqturis statistikuri SeswavlisaTvis
aucilebeli informaciis misaRebad mravali wyaro arsebobs rogorc
saxelmwifo, ise arasaxelmwifo struqturebidan da organizaciebidan
Sesabamis organoebSi savaldebulod warsadgen angariSgebaTa saxiT.

97
 magram im SemTxvevaSi, Tu aseT wyaroebSi ar aRmoCndeba Sesabamisi
informacia, maSin am ukmarisobis Sesavsebad gamoiyeneba informaciis
mopovebis iseTi meTodebi, rogoricaa: saanketo gamokiTxva da saeqsperto
Sefaseba. aseve gamoiyeneba SedarebiT ufro axali, Tanamedrove meTodebi,
romelTagan aRsaniSnavia `delfis~ meTodi, gonebrivi Sturmis (ieriSis),
sineqtikis meTodi da sxv.
`delfis meTodi~ _ saxelwodeba momdinareobs Zveli berZnuli
qalaqis delfosagan, sadac arsebobda misanTa, winaswarmetyvelTa uZvelesi
centri. es meTodi SemuSavebulia aSS-is kvleviTi korporacia `rend~-is
mier. misi arsi SemdegSi mdgomareobs: dgeba mecnierulad dasabuTebuli
kiTxvarebi, romelsac eqspertTa jgufi avsebs anonimurad. miRebuli
Sefaseba muSavdeba statistikurad. pasuxebis saSualo mniSvneloba iTvleba
eqspertul Sefasebad. miRebul SefasebaTa saimedooba mniSvnelovnadaa
damokidebuli eqspertebis sworad SerCevaze, maT kvalifikaciaze,
erudiciasa da Sesaswavli sakiTxebis Sesaxeb maT informirebulobaze.
eqspertebis mier sagnis codna da analizuri SesaZleblobebi mowmdeba
testirebis gziT. Sefasebis sizuste agreTve damokidebulia kvlevis
Sedegebis statistikuri damuSavebis doneze.
upirveles yovlisa, SemuSavdeba principebi, romelic daismeba
eqspertebis winaSe, gamoiyeneba logikuri dasabuTebis meTodi, igeba
hipoTezebi kvlevis Sedegebis Sesaxeb. amis safuZvelze muSavdeba anketa.
pirvel etapze xdeba eqspertTa warmomadgenlobiTi jgufis formireba.
eqspertTa raodenoba optimaluri unda iyos. jgufis gacilebiT didi
raodenoba gaaZnelebs monacemebis damuSavebas, gaaZlierebs azrebis
gafantvas da gaadidebs kvlevis Rirebulebas, xolo eqspertebis zedmetad
mcire jgufi adidebs individualur SefasebaTa gavlenasa da SemTxveviTi
Secdomebis daSvebis albaTobas. saWiroa, gonieri sakmarisobis principis
gamoyeneba, romlis Tanaxmadac eqspertebis raodenobis erTi erTeuliT
gadideba (N+1) praqtikulad ar moaxdens gavlenas eqspertTa kiTxvebze
gacemuli pasuxebis dispersiis meryeobis doneze. SesaZlebelia eqspertTa

98
kompetenturobis Sefasebis miReba (maTi ganzogadebuli Sexeduleba),
Semdegi formuliT:
n

X C ij i
Xj  i
m
, (4.1)
C i
i

sadac X j aris SefardebiTi mniSvnelobis Sefaseba (balebSi) j-uri

eqspertis mier i-uri elementis mixedviT.

C _ i-uri korespondentebis kompetenturobis koeficienti, romelic
iTvaliswinebs gansaxilveli sakiTxis codnisa da pasuxis
argumentirebis dones.
Cn  Ca
Ci  , (4.2)
2

sadac Cn aris gansaxilveli sakiTxis codnis done;

C a _ pasuxis argumentirebis done;

i=1...m _ eqspertebis nomrebi;
m_ eqspertebis raodenoba;
j=1...n,
n _ Sesaswavli elementebis nomrebi miznebis xeze.
pasuxis saSualo mniSvneloba varirebs 1 da 100 bals Soris.
1  X j  100 .

rac ufro metia X j , miT ufor metia j-uri elementis mniSvneloba

miznebis xeze.
calkeulij-uri elementisaTvis ganisazRvreba saeqsperto
SefasebaTa dispersia:
m

 (X ij  Xi ) 2  Ci
2  i
m
, (4.3)
C i
i

99
 rac ufro mcirea meryeoba, miT metia pasuxebis SeTanxmebuloba da,
maSasadame, pasuxebis saimedooba.
gamokvlevis am meTodis dros eqspertebis gamokiTxva anonimuria,
calkeulma eqspertma ar icis, Tu mis garda kidev vin aris Cabmuli am
samuSaoSi. aseve ucnobia danarCeni anketebis Sinaarsi. dgindeba pasuxebis
ranJirebuli ganawileba atributuli da raodenobrivi niSnebis mixedviT.
gamoiTvleba pasuxebis statistikuri maxasiaTeblebi: saSualo sidideebi,
meryeobis maCveneblebi, mediana, kvartili (pirveli da mesame). am
SemTxvevaSi mediana ganixileba rogorc eqspertTa jgufuri azri
(Sexeduleba), xolo kvartilSorisi daSoreba warmoadgens eqspertTa
Sexedulebebis SeTanxmebulobis maCvenebels. rac ufro axloa eqspertebis
pasuxebis dispersiis meryeobis done nulTan, miT ufro maRalia
SeTanxmebuli Sefasebis reprezantatiuloba.
eqspertebis upirates gansjaTa (SexedulebaTa) gamovlenis Semdeg,
tardeba muSaoba maTi Tvalsazrisis dasaaxloveblad. mesame etapze yvela
eqsperts, romelTa Sefasebebic kvartilSorisi dacilebis (manZilis)
sazRvrebSia, acnoben im eqspertTa Sexedulebebis dasabuTebuli
gansxvavebebis mizezebs, romelTa Sefasebebic gamovida kvartilSorisi
dacilebis (manZilis) sazRvrebidan.
jgufSi darCenil TiToeul eqsperts eZleva ufleba Secvalos
Tavisi Sefaseba. amis Semdeg mTeli procedura meordeba axlidan,
saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi ramdenjerme, sanam Sefasebebi ar dauaxlovdeba
erTmaneTs. daaxloeba unda gagrZeldes manamde, sanam maTi saSualo
saimedod (misaRebad) ar iqneba miCneuli, SexedulebebSi arsebuli
gansxvavebebi ki _ minimumade dayvanili.
praqtikaSi xSirad es procedura tardeba gamartivebulad da
SexedulebaTa mkacri gansxvavebis (gafantvis) SemTxvevaSi kmayofildebian
anketirebis erTi turiT.
eqspertis saimedobis donis maCvenebeli gamoiTvleba formuliT:
n
R (4.4)
N

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 sadac n aris mocemuli eqspertis mier gakeTebuli Sefasebebis
saerTo ricxvi;
N _ swor SefasebaTa saerTo ricxvi.

`gonebrivi Sturmis (ieriSis)~ meTodi warmoadgens sabazro

koniunqturis Sefasebis ufro operatiul da saimedo meTods. am meTodis
gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi xorcieldeba kvalificiuri specialistebis
SerCeva, Sefasebebi da daskvnebi keTdeba sxdomis mimdinareobisas. yvela
damswre iyofa or jgufad. pirveli jgufi koncentracias anu generacias
ukeTebs ideebsa da Sefasebebs, xolo meore aanalizebs maT. orive jgufs
hyavs saerTo xelmZRvaneli.

ganxilvisas didi yuradReba eqceva azrTa Tavisufali gacvlis

waxalisebas, amasTan, ikrZaleba wamoyenebul ideaTa da daxasiaTebaTa
aqtualobis (faseulobis) mimarT kritikuli SeniSvnebis gamoTqma.
xelmZRvaneli unda iyos miukerZoebeli da diskusia warmarTos saWiro
mimarTulebiT. rac ufro metia variantebis raodenoba, miT ufro maRalia
im namdvilad Rirebuli ideebisa da daxasiaTebaTa gamovlenis albaToba,
romelzedac daTanxmdeba monawileTa umravlesoba.
praqtikaSi zogjer gamoiyeneba sineqtikis meTodi (gansxvavebuli da
erTmaneTTan aSkarad Seusabamo elementebis SeerTeba). am dros xdeba
saqmianobis (moRvaweobis) sxvadasxva sferodan specialistebis Sekreba.
calkeuli monawile TaTbirs Rebulobs rogorc Sejibrebas da
gansaxilvelad Seaqvs winaswar momzadebuli idea. miiReba is realuri
idea, romelsac mxars dauWers monawileTa umravlesoba.
aRniSnuli meTodebi farTod gamoiyeneba marketingul gamokvlevebSi
da koniunqturul gamokvlevebSi, myidvelobiTi (gadaxdisunariani)
moTxovnis gansazRvrisa da prognozirebis mizniT.

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 4.3. sabazro koniunqturis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema

sabazro koniunqturis statistikis amocanebis gadawyveta

xorcieldeba maCvenebelTa sistemis meSveobiT. marTalia, sabazro
koniunqtura TavisTavad sakmaod rTuli sazogadoebrivi movlenebisa da
procesebis ricxvs miekuTvneba, magram is ufro iseTi rTuli
sazogadoebrivi movlenis erT-erTi Semadgeneli nawilia, rogoricaa
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari.
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema
Sedgeba 5 blokisagan:
1. bazris (sabazro koniunqturis) formirebisa damdgomareobis
maCveneblebi;
2. fasebis mdgomareobis,cvlilebebis da maTi qcevis maCveneblebi;
3. saqonelmoZraobis maCvenebelebi;
4. bazris infrastruqturismaCvenebelebi;
5. sabazro saqmianobissocialur-ekonomikuri SedegebismaCvenebelebi.
amrigad, saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris statistikis
maCvenebelTa sistemaSi umniSvnelovanesi adgili sabazro koniunqturis
statistikis maCvenebels ukavia. ramdenadac bazari rTul mravaldonian da
mravalstruqturul sistemas warmoadgens, imdenad misi statistikuri
daxasaiTeba qmnis urTierTdakavSirebul da ierarqiul sistemas, blokebsa
da elementebs, romlebic orientirebulia bazris statistikis
konceptualur da funqciur amocanebze.
statistikuri Seswavlis TvalsazrisiT, sabazro procesi
sqematurad SeiZleba aRweril iqnes Semdegnairad: upirveles yovlisa,
ganasazRvrul proporciebSi yalibdeba moTxovna da miwodeba; maTi
urTierTkavSiri warmoSobs yidva-gayidvis aqts (saqonelbrunvas); saqoneli
icvleba fulze Tanabrad Sewonili fasebis Sesabamisad, romelic gamodis
sasaqonlo-fuladi gacvlis ekvivalentad sabazro meqanizmis moqmedebis
kanonis Tanaxmad.

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 es procesi Seqmnil pirobebze damokidebulebiT mimdinareobs
sxvadasxva siCqariTa da sxvadasxva veqtoriT, amasTan, adgili SeiZleba
hqondes procesis rogorc daCqarebas, ise Senelebas. aRniSnuli procesi
xorcieldeba masobrivi masStabiT da moiTxovs Sesabamis materialur,
satransporto, informaciul, SromiT da finansur uzrunvelyofas.
procesis saboloo mizans ki socialur-ekonomikuri efeqtis miReba
warmoadgens, rac imas niSnavs, rom momxmarebeli ikmayofilebs moTxovnas
(socialuri efeqti), xolo saqonlis (momsaxurebis) mwarmoebeli da
Suamaval-gamyidveli Rebulobs mogebas (ekonomikuri efeqti).
pirveli, anu sabazro koniunqturis bloki da masSi Semavali
maCvenebelTa kompleqsi gankuTvnilia sabazro situaciis kompleqsurad
dasaxasiaTeblad. is Seicavs bazris mTavar kategoriebs _ moTxovnasa da
miwodebas da asaxavs bazris masStabebsa da mTavar proporciebs, mis
tendenciebsa da meryeobas. mocemuli bloki Seicavs 9 qvejgufs, romlebic,
Tavis mxriv, aerTianebs erTgvarovan an msgavs maCveneblebs da sxvadasxva
kuTxiT axasiaTebs sabazro koniunqturas.
aRniSnuli qveblokebia (qvejgufebia):
1. saqonlis (momsaxurebis) miwodeba: mTlianad da calkeuli
saqonlis, gamyidvelebis (mwarmoeblebis, savaWro Suamavlebisa da sabazro
procesis sxva monawileebis) da regionebis mixedviT. qvejgufi Seicavs
maCveneblebs:
1.1 miwodebis moculoba, struqtura da dinamika;
1.2 miwodebis sawarmoo da sanedleulo potenciali;
1.3 miwodebis elastikuroba;
2. gadaxdisunariani (myidvelobiTunariani) moTxovna, saqonelze
(momsaxurebaze): mTlianad da calkeuli saqonlis, myidvelebisa
(masobrivi da piradi momxmareblebis) da regionebis mixedviT;
2.1. diferencirebuli moTxovna Semdegi niSnebis mixedviT:
dakmayofilebis donis, cvlilebebis veqtoris, aRmocenebis formebis,
myidvelobiTi qcevis, bazris mdgomareobisa da yidvis adgilis mixedviT;

103
 2.2. samomxmareblo potenciali (mTlianad da calkeuli saqonlisa
da momsaxurebis mixedviT): warmoebis saSualebaTa bazris tevadoba,
moxmarebis sagnebis bazris tevadoba da momsaxurebis bazris tevadoba;
2.3. moTxovnis elastikuroba.
3. bazris proporciuloba.
3.1. moTxovnisa da miwodebis Tanafardoba;
3.2. warmoebis saSualebaTa, moxmarebis sagnebisa da momsaxurebis
bazrebis Tanafardoba;
3.3. saqonelbrunvis sasaqonlo struqtura;
3.4. mwarmoeblebs, sabiTumo da sacalo gamyidvelebs Soris bazris
dayofa(xvedriTi wona);
3.5. gamyidvelebis struqtura sakuTrebis formebis mixedviT;
3.6. myidvelTa struqtura (sabiTumo _ sakuTrebis formebis mixedviT,
sacalo _ socialur-demografiuli da sxva samomxmareblo
niSnebis mixedviT);
3.7. bazris regionaluri struqtura.
4. bazris ganviTarebis tendencia.
4.1. gayidvis, fasebis, sasaqonlo maragis, investiciebis da mogebis
zrdis tempebi; trendebis veqtorebi da parametrebi.
5. bazris meryeoba, mdgradoba da cikluroba.
5.1. gayidvis, fasebisa da sasaqonlo maragis variaciis koeficientebi
drosa da sivrceSi (ekonomikuri da geografiuli);
5.2.bazris ganviTarebis sezonurobisa da ganviTarebis ciklurobis
modelTa parametrebi.
6. bazris mdgomareobisa da ganviTarebis regionaluri gansxvavebebi.
6.1. moTxovnisa da miwodebis Tanafardobisa da bazris sxva
proporciaTa regionuli variacia;
6.2. moTxovnis donis regionuli variacia (erT mcxovrebze
gaangariSebiT);
6.3. bazris dinamikuriganviTareba: veqtori siCqare,

104
 7. saqmiani aqtiuroba.
7.1. SekveTebis `portfeli~, misi Semadgenloba, Sevsebuloba da
dinamika;
7.2. garigebaTa raodenoba, zoma, sixSire da dinamika;
7.3. sawarmoo (savaWro) simZlavreTa datvirTvis done.
8. komerciuli (sabazro) riski.
8.1. saivesticio riski;
8.2. marketingul gadawyvetilebaTa miRebis riski;
8.3. SemTxveviTi sabazro ryevaTa riski.
9. bazris masStabi (zoma), monopolizaciisa da konkurenciis done.
9.1. calkeuli saqonlis mixedviT bazarze warmodgenili firmebis
ricxvi, maTi ganawileba sakuTrebis formebis, organizaciuli
formebisa da specializaciis mixedviT;
9.2. saqonlis (momsaxurebis) realizaciis (gayidvis) mTliani
moculoba bazarze da firmebis ganawileba gayidvis moculobis
mixedviT;
9.3. privatizaciis done: privatizebuli firmebis ricxvi da xevdriTi
wona, maTi organizaciuli formebi, maTi xvedriTi wona bazris
mTlian moculobaSi;
9.4. bazris dayofa (firmebis dajgufeba gayidvis moculobis
xvedriTi wonis mixedviT);
9.5. mcire, saSualo da msxvili firmebis xvedriTi wona bazris
mTlian moculobaSi.
rogorc warmodgenil maCvenebelTa sistemidan Cans, masSi Sedis
sabazro koniunqturis ara marto specifikuri maCveneblebi, aramed bazris
statistikis sxva blokebis mTeli rigi maCveneblebic.
sabazro koniunqturis maCvenebelTa Taviseburebas warmoadgens im
statistikuri modelebis parametrebad gamoyeneba, romlebic asaxaven
bazris tendenciebsa da ciklurobas. garda amisa, saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis bazris statistikis sxva blok-maCveneblebisagan gansxvavebiT,

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koniunqturis blokSi mravali mniSvnelovani maCvenebeli asaxavs ara
statikur (uZrav) mdgomareobas (movlenas), aramed dinamikur da variaciul
process, xolo danarCeni maCveneblebi axasaiaTeben movlenis struqturas,
Tanafardobasa da Zvrebs (cvlilebebs).
zogierTi koniunqturuli daxasiaTebebi, kerZod, tendenciebi da
maTi mdgradoba, SesaZlebelia miRebul iqnes mxolod trenduli
modelebis Sesabamisi damuSavebis Sedegad. erT-erTi ZiriTadi moculobiTi
maCvenebeli _ moTxovna, warmoadgens iseT sidides, romlis Sefaseba
(gazomva) mxolod arapirdapiri gziTaa SesaZlebeli. meore moculobiTi
maCveneblis, bazris masStabis (zomis) daxasiaTeba ki SesaZlebelia sxva
blokebis iseT maCvenebelTa gamoyenebiT, rogoricaa: gayidvebis moculoba,
garigebebis ricxvi, gamyidvelebisa da myidvelebis raodenoba da a.S.

sabazro koniunqturis maCvenebelTa sistemis ukeTesad gagebis mizniT

ganvixiloT ZiriTad maCvenebelTa arsi da gaangariSebis Taviseburebebi.
miwodeba bazris umniSvnelovanesi maCvenebelia da Sesabamisad, sabazro
koniunqturis amosaval maCvenebels warmoadgens. miwodeba aris saqonlis
(momsaxurebis) is moculoba, romelic gankuTvnilia gasayidad da bazarze
misi myidvelisaTvis SeTavazeba xdeba garkveuli periodis manZilze,
gansazRvruli fasebiT.
sabazro koniunqturis operatiul analizSi gamoiyeneba firmis mier
saqonlis moklevadiani miwodebis maCvenebeli, e. i. saqonlis raodenoba
(moculoba), romelsac firma yidis (sTavazobs) sxvadasxva fasebSi mokle
periodis ganmavlobaSi.
bazris daxasiTebisaTvis gamoiyeneba saqonlis deficiturobis donis
maCvenebeli (kerZod, gamyidvelis bazarze, rodesac moTxovna aRemateba
miwodebas), agreTve arsebobs specifikuri Taviseburebebi warmoebis
saSualebebis, samomxmareblo saqonlisa da momsaxurebis miwodebaSi.
miwodebis specifikuri formebi gamoiyeneba sabiTumo da samomxmareblo
bazrebze.

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 miwodebis determinatebad bazarze gamodis fasismieri faqtorebi,
kerZod, mocemuli saqonlis an momsaxurebis fasi, nedleulisa da
resursebis fasi, mosalodneli inflaciuri procesebi. mas miekuTvneba
agreTve nedleulisa da mza produqciis dabegvra da dotacia,
konkurentebis ricxvi bazarze, teqnoligiis Taviseburebebi (upiratesobebi)
da mecnierul-teqnikuri miRwevebi.
cnobilia, rom gansazRvrul situaciebSi miwodebasa da moTxovnas
Soris arsebobs kavSiri. kerZod, moTxovna warmoSobs miwodebas, magram
miwodebac garkveulwilad gavlenas axdens moTxovnaze, magaliTad,
gamyidvelis bazarze, moTxovna uTanabrdeba miwodebebis SezRudul
SesaZleblobebs, xolo myidvelis bazarze miwodeba orientacias akeTebs
moTxovnaze. garkveul situaciebSi miwodeba, Tavis mxriv, warmoSobs
moTxovnas, kerZod, amas adgili aqvs bazarze zogierTi axali saqonlis
gamoCenisas. yovelive es kargadaa Seswavlili marketingisa da ekonomikuri
Teoriis mecnierebis mier da aucileblad unda iqnes gaTvaliswinebuli
bazris koniunqturis analizis procesSi.
garda aRniSnulisa, miwodebis moculobaze did gavlenas axdens
sawarmoo da sanedleulo potenciali (warmoebiTi SesaZleblobebis done).
is miuTiTebs warmoebis im SesaZleblobaTa doneze, romelic
uzrunvelyofs Sesabamisi moculobisa da struqturis saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis miwodebas bazarze.
miwodebis ara naklebmniSvnelovan maCveneblad SeiZleba miCneul
iqnes miwodebis elastikuroba, e.i. misi cvlilebis done, romelic
xorcieldeba miwodebis determinatebis, kerZod, resursebis fasebis,
warmoebis teqnologiis, gadasaxadebisa da dotaciebis, saqonlis fasebis,
gamyidvelTa raodenobis da sxva cvlilebis gavleniT.
Semdeg umniSvnelovanes maCvenebels sabazro koniunqturis
maCvenebelTa sisitemaSi moTxovna anu gadaxdisunariani (myidvelobiTi)
moTxovna warmoadgens. gadaxdisunariani moTxovna aris is moTxovnileba

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(moTxovnilebis nawili), romelic uzrunvelyofilia fuladi saxsrebiT da
warmodgenilia bazarze.
moTxovnilebaSi ki igulisxmeba survili an saWiroeba daeuflo
(isargeblo) raime produqts an sagans, romelic aucilebelia adamianis
cxovrebisaTvis. arsebobs moTxovnisa da moTxovnilebis ramdenime
gansxvavebuli ganmarteba.
moTxovnis formirebisa da dakmayofilebis procesi SeiZleba
warmodgenil iqnes Semdegi TanmimdevrobiT: survili, saWiroeba,
moTxovnileba, fuli, moTxovna, fasebi, miwodeba, yidva, dakmayofileba.
aRsaniSnavia, rom mocemuli Tanmimdevrobis calkeuli etapi eqvemdebareba
statistikur, marketingul da sxva saxis kvlevebs.
statistikuri kvlevebis dros moTxovnis danawevreba saSualebas
iZleva ufro moqnilad Sefasdes bazris mdgomareoba da mocemuli
saxeobis moTxovnis prognozirebisas gamoyenebul iqnes mxolod is
faqtorebi, romelic uSualo gavlenas axdens masze.
warmoqmnis formebis mixedviT moTxovna SeiZleba iyos:
 potencialuri, romelic arsebobs axali saqonlis ideis dabadebis,
misi SemuSavebis, proeqtirebisa da saqonlis bazarze gamosavlelad
mosamzadebel periodSi;
 formirebadi moTxovna _ warmoiSoba axali saqonlis bazarze
gamosvlis sawyis stadiaSi, rodesac myidveli mxolod ecnoba mis
Tvisebebs ZiriTadad reklamis saSualebiT;
 Camoyalibebuli moTxovna, romelic Seesabameba saqonlis bazarze
aRiarebis dones;
 sezonuri moTxovna _icvleba wlis ganmavlobaSi warmoebisa da
moxmarebis sezonuri xasaiaTis Sesabamisad, agreTve klimaturi,
erovnuli wes-CveulebaTa Taviseburebebis, individualuri
moTxovnebisa da sxva faqtorebis zegavlenis mixedviT. moTxovnis
aRniSnuli saxeobebi dakavSirebulia saqonlis sasicocxlo
ciklebTan.

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 garda aRniSnulisa, marketinguli gamokvlevebisas gamoiyeneba
moTxovnis sxvanairi dayofac, romelic efuZneba myidvelTa ganzraxvebis
sxvadasxvaobas. kerZod, arsebobs:
 mtkiced formirebuli moTxovna,rodesac myidveli moiTxovs mxolod
gansazRvruli saxeobis saqonels da ar surs misi Semcvleli
saqoneli;
 alternatiuli moTxovna(rbili, kompromisuli moTxovna), roca
myidveli Tanaxmaa erTi saxeobis saqoneli Secvalos meore saxeobis
saqonliT;
 spontanuri (impulsuri) moTxovna,romelic aRmocendeba TviT
myidvelisTvisac moulodnelad, roca is bazarze (savaWro obieqtis
daxlze) SemTxveviT aRmoaCens momxiblav saqonels.
 panikuri (aJiotaJuri) moTxovna, romlis obieqts SeiZleba
warmoadgendes nebismieri saqoneli masze realuri moTxovnis
arsebobis damoukideblad. aseTi moTxovnis arsebobis safuZveli
SeiZleba iyos inflaciisagan dacvis an saqonlis SemTxveviT
(moulodneli) gaqrobisagan dazRvevis survili.
statistikuri kvlevebis ganxorcielebisas gansakuTrebuli miSvneloba
eniWeba bazrris mdgomareobis mixedviT moTxovnis dayofas, kerZod,
gamoiyofa moTxovnis Semdegi saxeobebi:
 negatiuri moTxovna,rodesac myidvelis mxridan arsebobs
winaswarCamoyalibebuli uaryofiTi damokidebuleba saqonlis mimarT,
an saqonelma Tavi moabezra myidvels;
 moTxovnis sruli ar arseboba, roca raRac mizeziT saqonels ar
cnobs myidveli da aRar yidulobs mas;
 dafaruli moTxovna,rodesac arsebobs gansazRvruli moTxovna,
magram Sesabamisi Tvisebebis mqone saqoneli ar (jer ar) iwarmoeba;
 srulyofili moTxovna,roca moTxovna saqonelze umaRles fazaSia
dagamyidvelebi kmayofilebi arian gayidvis moculobiT (amonagebiT,
saqonelbrunviT).

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  zogjer gamoiyofa gadaWarbebuli moTxovna,rodesac ise izrdeba
moTxovna, rom warmoeba ver akmayofilebs mas. moTxovnis am saxeobis
mixedviT Catarebuli statistikuri analizi saSualebas aZlevs
komerciul firmas sworad SeimuSavos sabazro starategia da
miaRwios maRalrentabelobas.
 Zviri saqonlis bazarze gamoyofen gadadebu l (dagrovebiT)
moTxovnas, romlis dasakmayofileblad saWiroa fulis dagroveba
garkveuli periodis manZilze. aseTi moTxovnis arsebobis codna
metad aucilebelia produqciis warmoebis dagegmvis an saqonlis
ganvadebiT gayidvis organizebisas. aRniSnuli saxeobis moTxovna
vlindeba mosaxleobis fuladi danazogebis matebis saxiT.
moTxovnis saxeobad dayofa, agreTve, warmoebs teritoriuli
TvalsazrisiTac. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu moTxovnis statistikuri analizi
moicavs qveynis mTlian teritorias, maSin mas uwodeben globalur
moTxovnas, romlisagan gamoiyofaqalaqisa da soflis moTxovna.
regionaluri moTxovnis analizisas gamoiyofa adgilobrivi mosaxleobis
moTxovna, romelsac uwodeben stacionalur (sabaziso) moTxovnas da
mobiluri (migrirebadi) moTxovna, romelic vlindeba mudmivi sacxovrebeli
adgilis sazRvrebs miRma. am ukanaskneli moTxovnis saxesxvaobas
warmoadgensrekreaciuli moTxovna, romelic dakavSirebulia turizmsa da
dasvenebasTan.
sabazro koniunqturis analizisas gamoiyofa dakmayofilebuli
moTxovna, romelic ZiriTadad utoldeba gayidvis moculobas da
daukmayofilebeli moTxovna, romelic vlindeba saWiro saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis SeZenis SeuZleblobaSi.
statistikur analizSi agreTve gamoiyeneba deficiturobis donis
maCvenebeli, romelic gansazRvravs im saqonlis xvedriT wonas, romelic
ar imyofeba regularul gayidvaSi. rodesac deficiturobis donis
maCvenebeli uaxlovdeba 100%-s, saqme gvaqvs totalur deficitTan.

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 imis gamo, rom moTxovna metad moqnilia, igi mgrZnobiarea mravali
faqtoris zemoqmedebis mimarT.
rogorc cnobilia, moTxovnis determinantebad, upirveles
yovlisa,fasismieri faqtorebi gvevlineba. Tu moTxovnis kanons, romelic
dawvrilebiTaa ganxiluli ekonomikuri Teoriisadmi miZRvnil
saxelmZRvaneloebSi (ekonomikuri Teoriis safuZvlebi, ekonomiksi,
ekonomika da a.S.), grafikuli modelis saxiT gamovxatavT, miviRebT fasebis
cvlilebebze moTxovnis damokidebulebis amsaxvel hiperbolur mruds. sxva
Tanabar pirobebSi, Tu fasi izrdeba, maSin moTxovna saqonelze
klebulobs.
gasaTvaliswinebelia isic, rom moTxovnaze mniSvnelovan gavlenas
axdens mosaxleobis realuriSemosavlebisdone anu momxmarebelTa
gadaxdisunarianoba.
amasTan, moTxovnas gaaCnia sazRvrebi, romelic izRudeba bazris
gajerebulobis doniT da ganisazRvreba bazarze arsebuli saqonlis
moculobiT.
mxedvelobaSi miiReba aseve mosaxleobis mflobelobaSi arsebuli
xangrZlivi moxmarebis sagnebi, romlebic jer kidev vargisia
gamosayeneblad da is garemoeba, rommosaxleoba mTliani moTxovnis
garkveul nawils ikmayofilebsarasasaqonlo wyaroebidan (saojaxo
meurneoba da sxv.).
garda amisa, samomxmareblo bazarze moTxovna damokidebulia rig
faqtorze:
demografiuli (mosaxleobis raodenoba da misi cvlileba,
mosaxleobis asakobrivi struqtura, dasaxlebis tipebi, migraciuli
procesebi, ojaxebis Semadgenloba; urbanizaciis done da a. S.);
socialur-ekonomikuri faqtorebi (dasaqmebisa da umuSevrobis done,
momuSaveTa profesiuli Semadgenloba, mosaxleobis danawileba
Semosavlebis mixedviT da a.S.);

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 geografiuli da klimaturi faqtorebi, erovnuli Taviseburebebi,
fsiqologiuri faqtorebi, sazogadoebriv-politikuri faqtorebi da a. S.
bazris mdgomareobis umniSvnelovanes maxasiaTebels miekuTvneba
proporciuloba, romlis maCveneblebidan aRsaniSnavia moTxovnisa da
miwodebis Tanafardoba.
sabazro koniunqturis analizisas erTob Znelia faqtobrivi
monacemebis safuZvelze moTxovnisa da miwodebis moculobaTa Sedareba.
aseT SesaZleblobas iZleva moTxovnisa da miwodebis balansi (ix. cxr.4.1),
magram misi ageba SesaZlebelia mxolod saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
mTliani erTobliobiT (moculobiT).
cxrili 4.1
moTxovnisa da miwodebis balansis sqema

msyidvelobiTi fondebi sasaqonlo resursebi

mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebi,
Semosuli yvela wyarodan, savaldebulo saSualo sasaqonlo maragi weliwadSi
gadasaxadebis da danazogis im nawilis
matebis gamoklebiT, romelic realizebulia saqoneli weliwadSi
gankuTvniliasocialuri
saWiroebisaTvisda saqonlis yidvasTan gaweulia momsaxureba weliwadSi
kavSirSi ar myofi sxva miznebisTvis.

fuladi saxsrebi (danazogebi),

dauxarjavi gadadebuli moTxovnisa da
daukmayofilebeli moTxovnis gamo

jami jami

saldo (+, _)

sasaqonlo birJebze moTxovnisa da miwodebis Tanafardoba

ganisazRvreba yidvasa da gayidvaze wardgenili gancxadebis moculobebis
mixedviT.

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 calkeuli saqonlis bazris proporciis Sefasebisas statistika
iZulebulia daeyrdnos koniunqturuli indikatorebis daxmarebiT
moTxovnisa da miwodebis Tanafardobis Sesaxeb gakeTebul arapirdapir
Sefasebebs, romelsac miekuTvneba fasebisa da sasaqonlo maragis cvlileba
dinamikaSi. Tu isini (moTxovna-miwodeba) gawonasworebulia, maSin
indikatorebi stabiluria, xolo disproporcia indikatorebis cvlilebiT
aRiniSneba.
fasebi wminda an monapoliuri konkurenciis bazarze, ufro dabali
doniT oligopoliur bazarze, iswrafvian Tanabari donisaken da sakmaod
mgrZnobiared reagireben moTxovnisa da miwodebis proporciis
cvlilebebze.
ufro saimedo indikatoria sasaqonlo maragi, romelic izrdeba
maSin, roca miwodeba dinamikaSi uswrebs moTxovnas da piriqiT, mcirdeba,
Tu moTxovna uswrebs miwodebas.
bazris proporciulobis Sefaseba SesaZlebelia sabalanso meTodis
meSveobiT, struqturisa da koordinaciis SefardebiTi MmaCveneblebiT
(Sefardebis koeficientebis, xvedriTi wonebis), zrdis tempis indeqsebiT,
struqturuli cvlilebebis indeqsebiT, saSualo kvadratuli an wrfivi
gadaxrebiT.
proporciebi agreTve gamoisaxeba elastikurobis koeficientiT,
romelic uCvenebs saSedego maCveneblis cvlilebas faqtoruli niSnis erTi
procentiT cvlilebisas (gadidebis an Semcirebisas).
bazari diniamikuri movlenaa, misi drois mixedviT cvlileba
gamoisaxeba dinamikis maCvenebelTa sistemiT. kerZod, es xdeba dinamikuri
mwkrivebis maCveneblebiTa da maTi analizis saSualebiT.
sabazro procesebis cvlilebis tendenciaTa (zrdis, Semcirebis)
gamovlenis ZiriTad meTods trenduli modelis ageba warmoadgens. masTan
erTad aseve gamoiyeneba grafikuli meTodebi.
bazari, Tundac regulirebadi, warmoudgenelia stiqiuri
gamovlinebebis gareSe. es movlena sabazro meqanizmis moqmedebis

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ganuyofel Tvisebas warmoadgens. misi swrafva moTxovnisa da miwodebis
gawonasworebisaken miiRweva gamudmebiT warmoSobil disproporciaTa
daRweviT.
bazris es Tviseba, dakavSirebuli misi ganviTarebis stiqiurobasTan,
vlindeba bazris sxvadasxva parametrebis ryevadobaSi. statistikurad igi
xasiaTdeba gayidvis, fasebis, sasaqonlo maragis variaciis sxvadasxva
maCveneblebiT. bazris ganviTarebis mdgradobis done droSi xasiaTdeba
ZiriTad tendenciebidan (trendidan) faqtiuri donis gadaxrebiT, rac
gaizomeba aproqsimaciis koeficientiT, gamosaxuliT procentebSi saSualo
donesTan mimarTebiT.
bazris ganviTrebisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia ganmeorebadoba, anu
cikluroba. ciklebs axasiaTebs gansxvavebuli xangrZlivoba da
Tanmimdevroba. wlis ganmavlobaSi Cveulebriv SeiniSneba sezonuri
meryeoba, romlis intensivobac ganisazRvreba variaciis koeficientiT.
sezonuri ciklebi gansxvavebulia calkeuli saqonlisa da
momsaxurebisaTvis da sxvadasxvanairad vlindeba sxvadasxva ekonomikur da
klimatur zonebSi. sezonuroba, Cveulebriv, modelirdeba me-3 da ufro
maRali rigis parabolebiT.

saqonelbrunva

savaWro saqmianobisa da saerTod, bazris statistikis mTavar maCvenebels

saqonelbrunva warmoadgens.

saqonelbrunvis maCvenebeli gamoiyeneba bazris koniunqturis Sesafaseblad,

sasaqonlo masis moculobis gasazomad, savaWro firmis zomis gansazRvrisaTvis,
savaWro firmis fuladi amonagebis maCveneblad da misi finansur-ekonomikuri
mdgomareobis dasadgenad.

is aCvenebs myidvelebis mier saqonlis SeZenaze daxarjuli fulis zomas da

moxmarebuli sasaqonlo masis moculobas. Ggarda amisa, saqonlis gayidvis
maCveneblebi gamoiyeneba wonebad fasebis indeqsebis gaangariSebisas.

amrigad, saqonelbrunva metad mravalmxriv da didmniSvnelovan maCvenebels

warmoadgens, romelsac makroekonomikur doneze, rogorc ekonomikuri, ise
socialuri mniSvneloba aqvs.

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 aseve SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saqonelbrunva realizebuli fasebis jamobrivi
maCvenebelia, romelsac safuZvlad udevs sami ZiriTadi faswarmomqneli elementi:
saqonlis warmoebis danaxarjebi, mimoqcevis sferoSi (gayidvaze) gaweuli
danaxarjebi da saqonelmoZraobis yvela doneze miRebuli mogeba.

ra Tqma unda, saboloo jamSi, yvela am danaxarjis gadaxda xdeba

momxmareblis mier (aq igulisxmeba konkurentunariani saqoneli da momsaxureba,
romlis gayidvac garantirebulia). amitom saqonelbrunvis moculoba SeiZleba
miCneul iqnes dakmayofilebuli moTxovnis moculobad.

saqonelbrunva ZiriTadad izomeba RirebulebiT erTeulebSi, rac ar gamoricxavs

mis gazomvas naturalur an pirobiT-naturalur erTeulebSi.

RirebulebiT erTeulebSi saqonelbrunvis sidide Q damokidebulia

gayiduli saqonlis raodenobaze (q) da erTeuli saqonlis fasze (p), amrigad,
saqonelbrunva SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes Semdegi formuliT:

Q= pq.
nebismier qveyanaSi mTliani saqonelbrunva SeiZleba warmodgenil iqnes
Semdegi ierarqiuli sistemis saxiT: saqonlis yidva-gayidvis aqti uSualod
xorcieldeba firmaSi, romelic SeiZleba iyos rogorc msxvili savaWro firma,
ise individualuri an saojaxo. Tavis mxriv, nebismieri savaWro firmis
saqonelbrunvis moculoba iqneba es sabiTumo Tu sacalo vaWrobis firma, moicavs
erTeuli yidva-gayidvis aqtebis erTobliobas.

msxvil firmaSi saqonelbrunvis mTliani moculoba Sedgeba misi calkeuli

filialisa Tu qveganyofilebis saqonelbrunvaTa moculobis jamisagan. mocemuli
dargis saqonelbrunvis moculoba Sedgeba dargis pirveladi rgolebis _
firmebis saqonelbrunvis moculobaTa jamisagan, xolo qveynis saqonelbrunvis
moculoba aerTianebs arsebuli dargebis, qvedargebis, qvedargobrivi jgufebisa
da produqciis da momsaxurebis calkeuli saxeobebis (romlebic raime mizeziT ar
miekuTvnebian romelime dargs) saqonelbrunvas.

amrigad, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saqonelbrunva yidva-gayidvis aqtebis

erTobliobaa.

amasTan, mxedvelobaSi unda miviRoT is garemoeba, rom saqonelbrunvis

aRricxva xorcieldeba saqonlis momxmarebelTan (myidvelTan) faqtobrivad
gagzavnis momentSi. myidveli swored am droidan xdeba saqonlis mesakuTre.
saboloo Sedegobrivi TvalsazrisiT (magaliTad, qveynis an dargobriv doneze),
saqonelbrunva maCvenebelTa sistemaSi makromaCveneblis rolSi gamodis. is
SeiZleba diferencirebul iqnes saxadasxva niSnis mixedviT da warmoqmnas
mikromaCveneblebi, romlebic asaxaven saqonelmoZraobis calkeul mxareebs.

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 imis gamo, rom saqonelbrunva warmoadgens sinTezur maCvenebels, misi
analizi SeiZleba gakeTdes Semadgeneli struqturuli erTeulebis mixedviT.
kerZod, qveynis masStabiT saqonelbrunva SeiZleba gaanalizdes teritoriul
WrilSi _ msxvili regionebis, qalaqebisa da raionebis, aseve gayiduli saqonlis
daniSnulebis an sxva niSnis mixedviT.

am mxriv gamoyofen warmoebis saSualebaTa saqonelbrunvas, moxmarebis

sagnebis saqonelbrunvasa da momsaxurebis gayidvas. aseve gamoiyofa saxelmwifo
da municipaluri firmebisa (organizaciebisa) da ekonomikis kerZo seqtoris
firmebis saqonelbrunva. calke SeiZleba gaanalizdes soflis meurneobis
produqciis saxelmwifo Sesyidvisa da kerZo gayidvis moculoba da a.S.

vaWrobis dargis firmebis saqonelbrunva savaWro-saSuamavlo

saqonelbrunvaa.

makrodoneze SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes saqonelbrunvis saerTo

moculobis nakrebi maCvenebeli, romelSic gaerTianebulia zemoT dasaxelebuli
yvela elementi. am maCvenebliT SeiZleba ganisazRvros saqonelbrunvis roli
ekonomikaSi (saqonelbrunvis xvedriTi wona mTlian Sida erovnul produqtSi),
piradi moxmarebis xvedriTi wona ekonomikaSi (samomxmareblo produqtebisa da
momsaxurebaze gaweuli danaxarjebis xvedriTi wona mTlian erovnul produqtSi)
da sxv.

rogorc aRvniSneT, saqonelbrunvis procesSi monawileobas iReben savaWro

Suamavlebi. rac ufro metia Suamavlebi, miT ufro izrdeba saqonelbrunvis
maCvenebeli, radgan izrdeba erTi da imave saqonlis gayidvaTa ricxvi da mas
saerTo (mTliani) saqonelbrunva ewodeba.

amrigad, mwarmoeblidan momxmareblamde mimaval gzaze ganxorcielebuli

yvela gayidvis jami qmnis mTlian saqonelbrunvas.

advili misaxvedria, rom am SemTxvevaSi adgili aqvs ganmeorebiT

aRricxvebs, ris gamoc xelovnurad izrdeba saqonelbrunvis faqtobrivi
moculoba, romlis sididec saqonelmoZraobis rgolebis ricxvis
pirdapirproporciulia. amitom mTliani saqonelbrunvis maCvenebeli ar SeiZleba
gamoyenebul iqnes seriozuli ekonomikuri gaangariSebebis dros.

saqonelbrunvis realuri moculobis dasadgenad, romelic gaivlis mTlian gzas

mwarmoeblidan momxmareblamde, gaiangariSeben maCvenebels, romelic gamoricxavs
ganmeorebiT aRricxvas da mas uwodeben wminda saqonelbrunvas.

wminda saqonelbrunvaSi igulisxmeba saqonlis saboloo, ganumeorebadi

(ganuaxlebadi) gayidva.

saboloo gayidva niSnavs, rom saqonlis mocemuli partia (mocemuli

saqoneli) metad aRar gaiyideba. imis gamo, rom wminda saqonelbrunva

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gaTavisuflebulia ganmeorebiTi aRricxvisagan, is warmoadgens saqonelbrunvis
statistikis mTavar SefasebiT da sabazo maCvenebels.

wminda saqonelbrunva gamoiyeneba savaWro (gamsaRebeli) firmis

(organizaciis) komerciuli saqmianobis Sedegebis Sesafaseblad, misi zomis
dasadgenad, mimoqcevis danaxarjebis gasaangariSeblad da rentabelobis donis
gansazRvrisaTvis.

praqtikuli TvalsazrisiT, firmebis mier erTmaneTisaTvis saqonlis miyidva

TviToeulisaTvis iqneba wminda saqonelbrunva, magram firmebis mTeli
erTobliobisaTvis igi mTliani (sabiTumo) saqonelbrunvaa.

gayidvebis aseTi saerTo jami ganmeorebiTi aRricxvis Sedegadaa miRebuli,

amitom monacemebis Sekrebisas igi unda gamoiricxos.

yovelive aRniSnuli SeiZleba warmodgenil iqnes sqemis saxiT (ix. sqema 2).
gaangariSebaTa gaadvilebis mizniT, mxedvelobaSi ar miiReba SesaZlo
danakargebis moculoba, saqonlis fasis cvlileba (romelic SeiZleba gamowveuli
iyos mimoqcevis xarjebis cvlilebiT) da erovnuli valutis inflacia.

rogorc sqemidan Cans, saqonelmoZraobis mTeli sistemisaTvis

saqonelbrunvis moculoba Seadgens 300 mln lars (180+120).

pirvel arxze mTliani saqonelbrunva udris 180 mln lars (60+60+60=180),

xolo wminda saqonelbrunva Seadgens 60 mln lars.

meore arxze mTliani saqonelbrunva 120 mln laris tolia (80+20+20=120),

xolo wminda saqonelbrunva udris 20 mln lars.

amasTan, mTliani wminda saqonelbrunvis moculoba ar aris toli

saqonelmoZraobis calkeuli arxis (ori arxi) wminda saqonelbrunvis moculobis
jamis, anu 140 mln larisa (80+60=140), radgan sabiTumo saSuamavlo firmis mier
wvril sabiTumo firmaze miyiduli saqoneli 60 mln laris moculobiT sistemaSi
mocemuli mTeli vaWrobisaTvis warmoadgens Sida saqonelbrunvas da
ganmeorebiTaa aRricxuli. wminda saqonelbrunva ki udris saboloo gayidvas
(romelic am SemTxvevaSi mosaxleobis mier moixmareba) da Seadgens 80 mln lars
(20+60=80).

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 amave Sedegs miviRebT, Tu zemoT gaangariSebul orive arxis wminda
saqonelbrunvaTa jamidan gamovricxavT ganmeorebiT aRricxvas. kerZod, 140-60=80
mln lars.

sqema 2.2

saqonelmoZraoba firmaTSorisi kavSirebis gamoyenebiT

produqciis mwarmoebeli firma

80 mln lari

60 mln lari sabiTumo saSuamavlo firma

20 mln
lari
wvrili sabiTumo firma sacalo vaWrobis firma #1
60 mln lari

20 mln lari

sacalo vaWrobis firma #2

60 mln lari

mosaxleoba

maSasadame, realuri an wminda saqonelbrunvis moculobis dasadgenad

mTavaria saqonlis xelaxali gayidvis ricxvis dadgena, anu saqonelmoZraobis
rgolurobis koeficientis gaangariSeba.

saqonelmoZraobis rgolurobis koeficienti ganisazRvreba mTliani

saqonelbrunvis SefardebiT wminda saqonelbrunvasTan.

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 es damokidebuleba SeiZleba gamoisaxos Semdegi formuliT:

QmT
Crg.  ,
Qwm

sadac C aris saoqnelmoZraobis rgolurobis koeficienti;

QmT _ mTliani saqonelbrunvis moculoba;

Qwm – wminda saqonelbrunvis moculoba.

Cvens magaliTSi saqonelbrunvis rgolurobis koeficienti pirveli

arxisaTvis udris:

180
Crg.   2,25 rgols.
80

meore arxisaTvis rgolurobis koeficienti tolia:

120
Crg.   1,5 rgolis.
80

mTeli sistemisaTvis (orive arxisaTvis) saqonelmoZraobis rgolurobis

saSualo koeficienti Seadgens:

180  120 300

CsaS.    3,75 rgols.
80 80

rogorc ukve aRiniSna, aseTi gaangariSeba swor Sedegs iZleva im

SemTxvevaSi, Tu saqonlis mTlianma moculobam danakargebisa da sasaqonlo
maragebis cvlilebis gareSe miaRwia bolo rgols.

aRniSnuli gaangariSebis praqtikuli gamoyenebisaTvis saWiroa sasaqonlo

maragis cvlilebebis gansazRvra da maTi Setana gaangariSebaSi.

sasaqonlo maragis cvlileba SeiZleba ganisazRvros saangariSo wlis

bolosa da axali wlis (periodis) dasawyisisaTvis arsebuli sasaqonlo maragis
sxvaobiT. is gaiangariSeba formuliT:L

119
Z  Zg  Zd ,

sadac ΔZ aris sasaqonlo maragis cvlileba (mateba an kleba),

Zg _ maragi wlis (periodis) bolosaTvis;

Zd _ maragi wlis dasawyisisaTvis.

rodesac aRricxvis an sxva mizezebis gamo firmaSi ar moipoveba monacemebi

sasaqonlo maragis Taobaze, maSin SesaZlebelia saqonelmoZraobis sabalanso
formulis meSveobiT ganisazRvros sasaqonlo maragis absoluturi cvlileba:

Zd  q  S  Zd
,

sadac Zd da Zb aris sasaqonlo maragis moculoba Sesabamisad periodis

(wlis) dasawyisSi da bolos;

q _ saqonelbrunvis sferoSi Semosuli saqonlis moculoba

mocemul periodSi;

S _ saqonlis gayidvis moculoba amave periodSi.

zogadad, sasaqonlo maragis mateba udris saqonlis Semosvlasa da gayidvas

Soris sxvaobas. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu Semosuli saqonlis gayidvis moculoba
aRemateba saqonlis gayidvis moculobas, maSin adgili aqvs sasaqonlo maragis
zrdas, xolo Tu Semosvla gayidvaze naklebia, sasaqonlo maragi mcirdeba. Tu
saqonlis Semosvla gayidvis tolia, maSin sasaqonlo maragi ucvleli rCeba.

praqtikuli miznebisaTvis, saqonelmoZraobis rgolurobis koeficientis

gaangariSebisas, aucilebelia sasaqonlo maragis cvlilebis gaTvaliswineba.
kerZod, sasaqonlo maragis gadidebis SemTxvevaSi matebis moculoba (Tanxa)
emateba rgolurobis koeficientis mricxvels da mniSvnels, xolo sasaqonlo
maragis Semcirebisas _ Semcirebis moculoba (Tanxa) gamoakldeba aRniSnuli
koeficientis mricxvelsa da mniSvnels. amasTan, gaTvaliswinebul unda iqnes, rom
Tu maragis cvlileba moxda ara sacalo, aramed sabiTumo rgolSi, maSin
Sesworeba Setanil unda iqnes koeficientis mxolod mricxvelSi.

savaWro saqmianobis analizisas aranaklebi mniSvneloba eniWeba iseTi

xarisxobrivi mikromaCveneblis gaangariSebas, rogoricaa: saqonelbrunvis

120
sasaqonlo struqtura, romlis drosac jer gaiangariSeba, xolo Semdeg
analizdeba calkeuli saqonlis an sasaqonlo jgufis (erTgvarovnebis mixedviT)
xvedriTi wona gayidvis mTlian moculobaSi.

saqonelbrunvis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia saqonelbrunvis

moculoba erT mcxovrebze. is gaiangariSeba mocemul periodSi (Cveulebriv
weliwadSi) saqonelbrunvis moculobis SefardebiT qveynis (regionis)
mosaxleobis saSualo (saSualowliur) raodenobasTan. es damokidebuleba
SeiZleba gamoisaxos formuliT:

Qsac
Qmcx  ,
Nm

sadac Qmcx aris saqonelbrunvis moculoba erT mcxovrebze;

Qsac _ sacalo saqonelbrunvis moculoba;

Nm _ mosaxleobis saSualowliuri raodenoba.

magaliTi. qveynis (regionis) mosaxleobis raodenobam wlis dasawyisSi Seadgina

4560 aTasi kaci, xolo wlis bolos 4750 aTasi kaci anu saSualowliuri
4560  4750
raodenoba udris 4655 aTas kacs (  4655 aTasi kaci). qveyanaSi
2
(regionSi) sacalo saqonelbrunvis moculobam Seadgina 3450 aTasi lari.

amrigad, saqonelbrunvis moculoba erT mcxovrebze udris 741 lars

 3450 aTasi lari 
  741 aTasi lari .
 4655 aTasi lari 
 

es maCvenebeli asrulebs ormag funqcias: zomadobis faqtoris gamoricxviT

(mosaxleobis ricxovnobis) uzrunvelyofs regionaluri saqonelbrunvis
maCveneblebis Sesadarisobas, da, axasiaTebs ra saqonlis Sesyidvebis saSualo
individualur dones, gamoiyeneba dinamikur SedarebebSi e.i vaWrobis socialuri
efeqtianobis maCvenebelia.

sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi nebismier formaSi mimarTaven marketingul

gamokvlevebs, romlis drosac gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba eniWeba iseTi
maCveneblis gaangariSebas, rogoricaa _ bazris tevadoba.

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bazris tevadoba gaiangariSeba calkeuli saqonlis an msgavs saqonelTa jgufis
mixedviT. is SeiZleba ganisazRvros Semdegi formuliT:

H=N·S·C – (Q – Kf – Kg) – A – V ,

sadac H aris bazris tevadoba, anu saqonlis is raodenoba, romelic

SeiZleba aiTvisos bazarma garkveul pirobebSi;

N – firmis gavlenis (momsaxurebis) sferoSi arsebuli momxmareblis

raodenoba;

S – saqonlis saSualo moxmarebis moculoba (zoma) erT momxmarebelze

gaangariSebiT (normativiT, saeqsperto SefasebiT, prognoziT, an sabaziso
periodSi);

C _ moTxovnis elastikurobis koeficienti Semosavlebze an fasebze

damokidebulebiT, romelic gaiangariSeba formuliT:

C Q0
C : ,
P P0

sadac Q aris moxmarebis (moTxovnis) zrda erT mcxovrebze;

Q 0 da Q1 _ moxmareba fasebis cvlilebamde da cvlilebis Semdeg;

P _ fasebis zrda;

P0 da P1 _ fasi Sesabamisad cvlilebamde da cvlilebis Semdeg;

Q _ momxmareblis mflobelobaSi arsebuli saqonli;

Kf da Km _ momxmareblis mflobelobaSi arsebuli saqonlis

fizikuri da moraluri cveTa;

A – moTxovnis alternatiuli dakmayofilebis wyaroebi;

V _ konkurentebis mier gayiduli (an mosalodneli gayidvis) saqonlis

(saqonelbrunvis) moculoba (xvedriTi wona).

magaliTi. momxmarebelTa ricxvma Seadgina 550 aTasi kaci. sabaziso

periodSi X saqonelis moxmarebis done erT sul mosaxleze Seadgenda 25

erTeuls kacze. elastikurobis koeficientma uCvena, rom fasebis donis 1%

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zrdisas moTxovna X saqonelze 0,2% mcirdeba (E = _ 0,8). prognozuli SefasebiT
mosalodnelia fasebis 10% zrda. maSin moxmarebis saSualo done erT sul
mosaxleze Seadgens:

Q =2,5 _ (25 X(1_0,8) X10=20 erT/kac.

bazris sabaziso tevadoba toli iyo: 550 X20=1100 erT/kac. Tumca wlis
dasawyisiTvis mosaxleobas gaaCnda X saqonelis 600 aTasi erTeuli, eqspertuli
SefasebebiT 120 aTasi erTeuli uvargisi gaxdeba momsaxurebis vadis gasvlis gamo,
xolo moraluri daberebis mizeziT 80 aTasi erTeuli Seicvleba
modernizirebuli X saqoneliT.. garda amisa mosaxleoba X saqonelis 100 aTas
erTeuls Cveulebriv Sav bazarze iZens. Aam cifrebze SesworebiT bazris tevadoba
Seadgens:

E=1100 – (600-120-80)-100=200

wina wlebis monacemebiT bazris 2/3 ekuTvnis konkurentebs, maSasadame,

mocemuli firmisaTvis X saqonelis bazris tevadoba Seadgens 200 aTas erTeuls.

savaWro saqmianobis erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi maCveneblia sasaqonlo

maragi.

sasaqonlo maragi firmaSi garkveuli periodis manZilze uZrav

mdgomareobaSia da misi arseboba ganpirobebulia obieqturi aucileblobiT.
sasaqonlo maragi warmoadgens firmaSi mocemuli momentisaTvis arsebuli
saqonlis im masas, romelic jer kidev ar aris gayiduli da elodeba gayidvis
periodis dadgomas.

ganasxvaveben sasaqonlo maragis or maCvenebels: sasaqonlo maragis

absoluturi moculoba da sasaqonlo maragis donis SefardebiTi maCvenebeli.

sasaqonlo maragis absoluturi moculoba gviCvenebs, nebismieri mocemuli

momentisaTvis Tu ra moculobis maragi unda iyos firmaSi, rom man Seuferxeblad
imuSavos.

sasaqonlo maragis donis SefardebiTi maCveneblis gaangariSebis or

variants ganasxvaveben: maragtevadoba da saqonlbrunvis uzrunvelyofadoba
sasaqonlo maragiT.

maragtevadobis maCvenebeli gaiangariSeba rogorc maragebis procentuli

Sefardeba saqonelbrunvasTan (maragi yovel aTas lar saqonelbrunvaze).

saqonlbrunvis uzrunvelyofadoba sasaqonlo maragiT

gaiangariSeba
periodis (wlis, kvartlis da a.S.) bolosTvis arsebuli sasaqonlo maragis
moculobis SefardebiT mocemuli periodis saSualo erTdRiuri saqonelbrunvis
moculobasTan. is gviCvenebs sasaqonlo maragiT uzrunvelyofili dReebis
raodenobas.

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 sasaqonlo maragis moculobis sidide dakavSirebulia saqonelbrunvis
moculobasTan, da sxva Tanabar pirobebSi, rac ufro didia saqonelbrunva, miT
ufro metia saqonelbrunvis uwyvetobis uzrulvelmyofi sasaqonlo maragi.

maragtevadobisa da uzrunvelyofadobis maCveneblebi saSualebas iZleva

gamoiricxos saqonelbrunvis zomis faqtoris gavlena saqonelbrunvis dinamikis
analizisas an sxvadasxva firmebis am maCvenebliT Sedarebis dros.

magaliTi:
saqonelbrunvam Tvis ganmavlobaSi Seadgina 5 mln lari,
sasaqonlo maragi Tvis bolos udrida 2 mln lars. maragtevadoba am
SemTxvevisaTvis udris 0,4 mln lars (2:5=0,4). uzrunvelyofadobis
gaangariSebisaTvis aucilebelia ganisazRvros saqonelbrunvis saSualo
moculoba erT dReSi, romelic 5:30=0,16 mln laris tolia. amrigad,
saqonelbrunvis uzrunvelyofadoba sasaqonlo maragiT udris 13 dRes (2:0,16=13).

sasaqonlo maragiT uzrunvelyofadoba warmoadgens ZiriTad saanalizo

maCvenebels sasaqonlo maragis Sefasebisas da gviCvenebs Tu ramden dRes eyofa
mocemuli sasaqonlo maragi firmas arsebuli saqonelbrunvis moculobis
pirobebSi, raTa Seuferxeblad imuSaos man.

sasaqonlo maragiT uzrunvelyofadobis saerTo maCvenebelis

gaangariSebasTan erTad aucilebelia aRniSnuli maCvenebeli ganisazRvros
saqonlis calkeuli saxeobisa da saqonlis jgufis anu sasaqonlo struqturis
mixedviT.

rogorc cnobilia, sasaqonlo maragis aRricxva xdeba drois romelime

momentisaTvis. amitom drois gansazRvrul periodSi maragis donis
dasaxasiaTeblad gaiangariSeba saSualo sasaqonlo maragi saSualo
qronologiuris formuliT:

1 / 2Z1  Z1  ...  Z n
Zl  ,
n 1

sadac Z i aris sasaqolo maragi i -uri TariRisTvis;

n _ sasaqonlo maragis daregistrirebis TariRis ricxvi.

mocemul periodSi sasaqonlo maragis donis Sesafaseblad gaiangariSeben

sasaqonlo maragis saSualo maCvenebls mocemuli periodis mixedviT da
gamoiyeneben saSualo sididis (ZiriTadad saSualo ariTmetikuli) gaangariSebis
Sesabamis xerxs. kerZod, kvartalSi an ufro xangrZlivi periodisaTvis saSualo

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sasaqonlo maragi SeiZleba ganisazRvros rogorc saSualoTviuri maCveneblebis
saSualo sidide.

magaliTi: sasaqonlo maragi firmaSi 1 ianvrisaTvis udrida 5 mln lars, 1

TebervlisaTvis _ 6 mln lars, 1 martisaTvis _ 7 mln lars da 1 aprilisaTvis _
6 mln lars. jer gaiangariSeba maragis saSualo Tviuri moculoba. is
ianvrisaTvis udris (5+6):2=5,5 mln lars; TebervlisaTvis _ (6+7):2=6,5 mln lars;
martisaTvis _ (7+6):2=6,5 mln lars. Semdeg gaiangariSeba maragis saSualo
moculoba pirvel kvartalSi, romelic udris (5,5+6,5+6,5):3=18,5:3=6,2 mln lars.

savaWro firmis efeqtianobis yvelaze mniSvnelovan maCvenebels

saqonelbrunvadoba warmoadgens.

savaWro sawarmoSi, marTalia, ganuwyvetliv xdeba saqonlis wrebrunva,

magram es procesi xorcieldeba ise, rom komerciul (savaWro) firmaSi mudmivadaa
SenarCunebuli saqonlis gansazRvruli gardamavali maragi, romlis moculobac
SeiZleba meryeobdes sxvadasxva faqtorebis zemoqmedebis gamo. swored am process
ewodeba saqonelbrunvadoba, romlis Sefasebac SeiZleba moxdes ori ZiriTadi
maCveneblis mixedviT.

pirveli maCveneblia saqonelbrunvadobis siCqare, romelic gviCvenebs, Tu

mocemul periodSi ramdenjer xdeba sasaqonlo resursebis ganaxleba, anu ramdeni
brunvaa Sesrulebuli am periodis manZilze.

is gaiangariSeba gansazRvrul periodSi wminda saqonelbrunvis moculobis

SefardebiT amave periodSi saSualo sasaqonlo maragis moculobasTan:

Q
W
ZsaS ,

sadac W aris saqonelbrunvadobis siCqare, anu brunvaTa ricxvi mocemuli

drois monakveTSi;

Q _ saqonelbrunvis moculoba (lari);

Z _ sasaqonlo maragis saSualo moculoba mocemul periodSi (lari).

saqonelbrunvis meore maCvenebelia erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba dReebSi, anu

dReebis is raodenoba, romelic saWiroa (daixarja) erT brunvis gakeTebaze.

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 is gaiangariSeba mocemul periodSi saqonelbrunvis moculobis gayofiT
saqonelbrunvis siCqareze, anu brunvaTa ricxvze:

Q
V ,
W

sadac V aris erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba dReebSi (mocemul periodSi);

Q _ saqonelbrunvis moculoba mocemul periodSi (lari);

W _ brunvaTa ricxvi mocemul periodSi.

sxvanairad, maCvenebels ewodeba sasaqonlo mimoqcevis dro, anu

meore
saqonelis mimoqcevis dro (V). is aRniSnavs dReTa im raodenobas, romlis
ganmavlobaSic saqoneli imyofeba sasaqonlo mimqocevis sferoSi da gaiangariSeba
mocemuli periodis sasaqonlo maragis saSualo moculobis SefardebiT amave
periodis erTdRiuri saqonelbrunvis moculobasTan:

z z
V  t
q Q .

magaliTi:Tu kvartalSi, romelic 90 dRes moicavs, saqonelbrunvis

moculobam 27 mln lari Seadgina da saSualo sasaqonlo maragi kvartalSi
udris 5 mln lars, maSin saqonelbrunvis moculoba erT dReSi toli iqneba 0,3
mln laris (27:90+0,3), brunvis siCqare udris 5,4 brunvas (27:5+5,4), xolo erTi
brunvis xangrZlivoba _ 5 dRes (27:5,4=5).

sakontraqto valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis analizis meTodebi

sabazro urTierTobis pirobebSi nebismieri firmis mTliani sameurneo

saqmianoba sakontraqto (saxelSekrulebo) urTierTobebs efuZneba.

saxelmwifo dainteresebuli unda iyos sakontraqto valdebulebaTa

upirobo da maRali doniT SesrulebaSi, rac Sesabamisi sakanonmdeblo sistemis
arsebobiT unda ganmtkicdes.

sakontraqto pirobebis srulyofilad Sesruleba TviT firmisaTvisaa

sasargeblo, radgan es misi imijis amaRlebas da maSasadame, misi saqmianobis
gafarToebas, ganviTarebasa da efeqtianobas uwyobs xels. yovelive amis gamo,
firmis sakontraqto valdebulebaTa Sefaseba da analizi metad aqtualuri
amocanaa.

komerciuli saqmianobis (savaWro) firmaSi kontraqti (xelSekruleba)

iuridiuli dokumentia, romelic gansazRvravs saqonlis yidva-gayidvis

126
urTierTobaSi Cabmuli mxareebis ufleba-movaleobebs. is gulisxmobs mxareebis
mier kontraqtSi gaTvaliswinebuli pirobebis aucilebel dacvasa da Sesrulebas.

ganviTarebuli sabazro ekonomikis qveynebSi kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli

pirobebis damrRvevi mxareebi isjebian ara marto peniebis, jarimebisa da sxva
sanqciaTa sistemiT, aramed TviT bazridan gaZevebiT. yovelive aRniSnulTan erTad
kontraqtis mniSvnelobas isic zrdis, rom is SeiZleba ganxilul iqnes rogorc
statistikuri informaciis SesaniSnavi wyaro, radgan masSi aRinusxeba gasayidad
gaTvaliswinebuli saqonlis raodenoba (moculoba) da asortimenti, saqonlis
xarisxis maCveneblebi, fasi da saqonlis partiis mTliani Rirebuleba. amasTan
erTad, kontraqtSi ganisazRvra saqonlis miwodebis pirobebi da vadebi.

aRniSnuli informaciuli masala saSualebas iZleva miwodebis faqtobrivi

Sedegebi Seudardes kontraqtiT (xelSekrulebiT) gaTvaliswinebuls da gakeTdes
Sesabamisi daskvnebi sakontraqto valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis Sesaxeb.

sakontraqto valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis analizi iwyeba miwodebis

moculobis mixedviT kontraqtis Sesrulebis SefasebiT. meorenairad, mas
kontraqtis Sesrulebis koeficientsac uwodeben. is gaiangariSeba formuliT:

qf
C
qk
,

sadac C aris sakontraqto valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis done (koeficienti);

qf _ miwodebuli saqonlis faqtobrivi raodenoba;

qk _ kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli saqonlis raodenoba.

kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebulTan SedarebiT, saqonlis faqtobrivi

miwodebis gadaxris absoluturi zoma ganisazRvreba rogorc sxvaoba faqtiur da
kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebul miwodebebs Soris:

C  qf  qk .

aRniSnuli formulebi gamoiyeneba im SemTxvevaSi, Tu saqoneli aRiricxeba

naturalur maCveneblebSi.

magram Tu kontraqtSi saqonlis miwodeba mocemuli da gaangariSebulia

RirebulebiT erTeulebSi, maSin aucilebelia mkacrad iqnes daculi fasebis
Sesadarisobis principi. am SemTxvevaSi gaiangariSeba kontraqtis Sesrulebis
indeqsi Rirebulebis mixedviT( C ) da absoluturi gadaxra(  c )

127
  pk q f
C ,
 pk q k

sadac pk aris kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli saqonlis sabiTumo fasi.

 c   pk qf   pk qk .

gaangariSebis aRniSnuli meTodi ZiriTadad gamoiyeneba maSin, rodesac

kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebulia sxvadasxva saxeobis da gansxvavebuli fasis mqone
saqonlis miwodeba.

aRsaniSnavia, rom komerciul saqmianobaSi xSirad gaiTvaliswineba saqonlis

Semdgomi gayidva ufro maRali fasiT. amitom arasruli miwodebis SemTxvevaSi
firma izaralebs, armiRebuli sargeblis odenobiT.

armiRebuli sargebeli gaiangariSeba rogorc sxvaoba sacalo fasebSi

faqtobrivad miwodebuli saqonlis Rirebulebasa da kontraqtiT
gaTvaliswinebuli sabiTumo fasebiT gansazRvruli saqonlis Rirebulebas Soris:

Czar   psac qf   psab qk ,

sadac Psac aris faqtobrivi sacalo fasi;

Psab _ sabiTumo fasi.

savaWro organizaciebs (firmebs) Soris dadebul kontraqtebSi

gaTvaliswinebulia miwodebis asortimenti, romlis dacva aucilebelia.
winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, e.i. Tu asortimentis mixedviT ar iqneba saqoneli
miwodebuli, maSin saqonlis mimRebi firma seriozuli problemebis winaSe
aRmoCndeba, radgan erTi saxeobis saqoneli iqneba naklebi, meore ki _ zedmeti.
amitom didi mniSvneloba eniWeba kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli asortimentis
mixedviT saqonlis miwodebis valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis Sefasebasa da analizs.

kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli da faqtobrivad miwodebuli asortimentebs

Soris gansxvavebis dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba asortimentul poziciaTa wrfivi
gadaxris koeficienti.

is gaiangariSeba formuliT:

m m
Cas.gad.   q j   q jf q j k ,
j 1 j 1

128
sadac q j aris faqtobrivad miwodebuli j-uri saxeobis asortimentis

saqonlis raodenobis gadaxra kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebulisagan;

m _ j-ri asortimentis saxeobis ricxvi.

asortimentis mixedviT sakontraqto valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis Sefaseba

SesaZlebelia qvemoT motanili formuliT, sadac yvela gadaxra, niSnebis (+, _)
miuxedavad, miekuTvneba kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebul miwodebis saerTo
moculobas:

 q j

Casor. 
j
m
,
q
j
jk

kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebulTan SedarebiT faqtobrivad miwodebuli

saqonlis moculobis gadaWarbebam, gansakuTrebiT SezRuduli moTxovnis
saasortimento jgufebis xarjze, SeiZleba Seqmnas araxelsayreli situacia,
rodesac firma ver SeZlebs zedmeti saqonlis gayidvas da warmoiqmneba
zenormatiuli maragi, rac damatebiT xarjebTanaa dakavSirebuli.

amrigad, mimwodeblis mier SeTanxmebuli miwodebis saasortimento

struqturis darRveva, im SemTxvevaSic ki, Tu ar iqneba darRveuli saqonlis
mTliani raodenobiT (moculobiT) miwodebis valdebuleba, zaraliT emuqreba
saqonlis mimReb firmas.

kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebulisagan miwodebis saasortimento struqturis

gadaxris gavlenis Sesaxeb damatebiTi informacia miiReba saasortimento
gadaxrebis indeqsebis meSveobiT:
m

p jk q, jf

Casor. 
j
m
,
p
j 1
jk q ,
jk

,
sadac q , j k da q j f j-uri saasortimento saxeobis wilia saqonlis saerTo

miwodebaSi Sesabamisad kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli da faqtiurad

miwodebuli;

p ,j k - j-uri saasortimento saxeobis saqonlis sakontraqto fasi;

129
 j - saqonlis saasortimento saxeobis raodenoba.

namravli pq , aRiqmeba, rogorc miwodebis Rirebuleba saqonlis raodenobis

yovel 100 erTeulze gaangariSebiT. amitom saasortimento gadaxrebis xarjze
miwodebis Rirebulebis absoluturi mateba gaiangariSeba ricxv 100-ze
Sesworebis gaTvaliswinebiT Semdegi formuliT:

m m  j
 q , jf
 asort   p jk q , jf   p jk q , jf * .
 j 1 j 1  100

magaliTi. gaviangariSoT sakontraqto valdebulebebidan saqonlis

miwodebis gadaxris maCveneblebi pirobiTi monacemebis safuZvelze (ix, cxrili
2.1).

cxrilSi motanili monacemebidan Cans, rom kontraqtTan SedarebiT

miwodebul iqna 20 aTasi erTeuliT naklebi (200 _ 180 = 20), an 10%. miuxedavad
amisa, RirebulebiTi gamosaxulebiT kontraqtTan SedarebiT miwodebis nakleboba
ar yofila, ramdenadac kontraqti dairRva asortimentis mixedviT da iafi saxis
saqonlis dakleba anazRaurda ufro Zviri saqonlis zedmeti miwodebiT. amis
Sedegad saSualod erT saqonelze gadaxdil iqna 11,1%-iT meti.

sakontraqto valdebulebebidan saqonlis miwodebis gadaxris maCvenebelTa

gaangariSeba
cxrili 2.1
saasortimento

fasi raodenoba Rirebuleba

(lari) (aTasi cali)
(aTasi lari)
realizaciis (gayidvis)

faqtobriv
absoluturi gadaxra
kontraqtis sabiTumo

i fasebiT
sakontraqto
faqtobrivad
kontraqtiT

kontraqtiT
saqonlis

sacalo

sacalo
saxeebi

a 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

(gr.1 (gr.1 (gr.2

X X X

gr.3) gr.4 gr.4)

)

130
 1 2 3 50 30 20 100 60 90

2 3 5 100 80 20 300 240 400

3 5 9 50 70 20 250 350 630

_ _ 200 180 60 650 650 1120

es mtkicdeba miwodebis mixedviT saSualo fasebis gaangariSebiT Semdegi

formuliT:

  pq
P ,
q

650 650
pk   3,250 aTasi lari; pf   3,611 aTasi lari.
200 180

A saasortimento Seusabamobis donem raodenobis mixedviT Seadgina 33% (60/180),

amitom Rirebulebis mixedviT gadaxra unda gaiTvalos sxvagvarad: pirveli da
meore poziciis mixedviT faqtiur doneze, xolo mesame pozicia _ kontraqtis
doneze. Ee.i. SeuTanxmebelis da maSasadame firma–klientisaTvis ara saWiro
gadaWarbebisa:

KkSeuT= (60+240+250)-650= _100 mln lari.

AarmiRebuli sargebeli gaiangariSeba imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom firma-

klientma ver SeZlo kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebulis zemoT miRebuli mesame
saasortimento saxeobis 20 aTasi erTeulis realizacia (ufro Zviris da amitom
naklebi moTxovnis mqonesi).

garda amisa Seiqmna zenormatiuli maragi, romelTa Senaxvam moiTxova

damatebiT 5,0 aTasi lari. pirveli da meore saasortimento saxeobis kontraqtiT
gaTvaliswinebulze naklebi miwodebis gamo firma-klientma ver miiRo 60 mln
laris Semosavali (sacalo fasebSi). Aarapirdapiri zarali gaangariSda
Semdenairad:

131
ap.z.=20x (3-2)+20x(5-3)=60

amdagvarad, zenormatiuli maragis xarjebis gaTvaliswinebiT, asortimentis

mixedviT kontraqtis pirobebis darRvevis gamo zaralma Seadgina 60 mln lari.

imisaTvis rom avagoT saasortimento gadaxrebis indeqsi da gaviangariSoT

am faqtoris xarjze miwodebis Rirebulebis gadaxra kontraqtis pirobidan
saWiroa cxrilis ageba sadac aisaxeba monacemebi _ saqonlis miwodeba
procentebSi jamTan. (ix, cx.2.2)

A gaviangariSoT saSualo fasebis indeqsi:

Iasort.=361,1/325,0=1,111 Nan 111,1%.

GADA e.i. sakontraqto Rirebulebidan SefardebiTi gadaxra 11,1% ganapiroba

saasortimento Seusatyvisobam. saSualo fasebis gaangariSebis Sedegi emTxveva
saasortimento indeqss, ramdenadac kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli

saasortimento gadaxraTa indeqsis maCvenebeli

cxrili 2.2

saasorti- momaragebis saasortimen- kontraqtiT miwodebis Rirebuleba

to struqtura %-iT gaTvaliswinebuli
mento 100 erT-ze gaangariSebiT
saxeobebi jamTan fasebi
(lari)
(lari)
kontraqtiT faqtobrivad kontraqtiT faqtobrivad

a 1 2 3 4 5

(gr.1Xgr.3) (gr.2Xgr.3)

1 25 18,5 4 100 74,0

2 46 37,0 6 276 222,0

3 29 44,5 7 203 311,5

100 100,0 _ 579 607,5

132
sabiTumo fasebi ar Secvlila. saqontraqtodan miwodebis Rirebulebis
absoluturi gadaxra xdeboda imis xarjze, rom faqtiuri saasortimento
struqtura ar emTxveoda saqontraqtos. is gaiangariSeba Semdegnairad:

 (asort)=(361,1-325,0)x180/100=64,98 an 65 mln lars.

A amas unda daematos miwodebis raodenobis Semcirebis gavlena:

 (Iq)=650x(180/200-1)=-60 mln lars. KON

M am matebebis jami (65+(-65) xsnis, Tu ratom daemTxva kotraqtiT miwodebis

Rirebuleba faqtiurs naturalur gamosaxulebaSi miwodebis moculobis
Semcirebisa da daSvebuli saasortimento Seusatyvisobis pirobebSi.

daskvna: mimwodebelma arakeTilsindisierad Seasrula kontraqtis pirobebi

da klient firmas miayena mniSvnelovani finansuri zarali. rac fasdeba 65 mln
laris miuRebeli sargebeliT.

sakontraqto disciplinis ganmtkicebaSi gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba aqvs

kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli saqonlis miwodebis vadebis dacvas.

kontraqtSi SeiZleba dafiqsirebuli iqnes saqonlis miwodeba Tanabari

partiebiT drois Tanabar SualedebSi.

araTanabari miwodeba uaryofiTad aisaxeba klienti firmis ekonomikur

maCveneblebze: xdeba transportis araTanabari datvirTva; adgili aqvs
gamyidvelebis muSaobis araTanabr datvirTvas; drois raRac monakveTSi sawyobebi
nawilobriv carielia, xolo Semdeg ver iteven miwodebul saqonels, romelic
aRemateba kontraqtiT gaTvaniswinebuls, rac Tavis mxriv ganapirobebs damatebiT
xarjebs.

arasruli miwodebis pirobebSi arasrulia moTxovnis dakmayofilebac,

ramac SeiZleba gamoiwvios myidvelTa nawilis gadasvla konkurentTan, xolo
zedmeti miwodebis Sedegad iqmneba rigebi, ver xerxdeba saqonlis droulad da
srulad realizacia ramdenadac maRaziis gamtarunarianoba SezRudulia. am
pirobebSi meryeobs fuladi amonagebi, iqmneba araxelsayreli finansuri situacia,
SeiZleba dairRves gadasaxadebis gadaxdis vadebi da sxv.

maSasadame, araTanabari miwodeba iwvewvs klienti firmis pirdapir da

arapirdapir zarals. mas aqvs ufleba moTxovos am zaralis kompensacia
mimwodebel firmas.

miwodebis Tanabrobis donis Sefaseba statistikis umniSvnelovanesi

amocanaa. mis safuZvelze vlindeba saqonelbrunvadobis siCqaris Samcirebis da
klienti firmis mimoqcevis xarjebis zrdis mizezebi, miiReba gadawyvetilebebi ama

133
Tu im mimwodebelTan sasaqonlo kavSirebis SeCerebis an saerTod gawyvetis
Sesaxeb.

miwodebis Tanabrobis donis Sefaseba keTdeba martivi meTodiT: aigeba

miwodebis grafiki, sadac normaluri (kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli) done
aRiniSneba swori wiTeli xaziT. misgan gadaxris mixedviT msjeloben kontraqtis
pirobebis darRvevasa da meryeobis intensivobaze.

im SemTxvevaSi roca mimwodebeli bevria, an aucilebelia meryeobis

intensivobis Sesaxeb obieqturi raodenobrivi monacemebi, iyeneben variaciis
koeficientis gaangariSebis meTods. misi gaangariSebis formula aseTia:

  100
cv  ,

sadac  aris saSualo kvadratuli gadaxra miwodebis saSualo donidan,

romelic, Tavis mxriv, gaangariSdeba formuliT:

  ( i   )2
,
N

sadac  i aris miwodeba i –ur periodSi;

 _ miwodebis saSualo done, romelic gaangariSebulia formuliT:

  ,

N

N _ periodebis ricxvi

variaciis koeficienti SeiZleba icvlebodes 0-dan 100-mde, rac ufro metia

is, miT ufro araTanabaria saqonlis miwodeba.

saqonlis Tanazomieri miwodebis garda, kontraqtiT SeiZleba saqonlis

sicocxlis cikluri da sezonuri xasiaTiT gamowveuli cikluri miwodebis
gaTvaliswineba. kerZod, wlis sxvadasxva sezonsa da saqonlis sxvadasxva
sasicocxlo ciklSi sxvadasxvanairia moTxovna saqonlis miwodebis raodenobaze
(moculobaze), rac Sesabamisad aisaxeba kontraqtSi.

am SemTxvevaSi SesaZlebelia gaangariSebis ori xerxis gamoyeneba:

134
1. saqonlis miwodebis ritmulobis koeficientis gaangariSeba roca kontraqtSi
miTiTebulia calkeuli periodisaTvis miwodebis moculoba. is gaiangariSeba
formuliT:

 if
Crit   1  ,
 ik

sadac  if aris saqonlis faqtobrivi miwodeba drois i-ur monakveTSi;

 ik _ kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli saqonlis miwodeba drois i-ur

monakveTSi.

rac ufro axlosaa saqonlis miwodebis ritmulobis koeficienti nulTan,

miT ufro ritmulia miwodeba da piriqiT, rac ufro didia is, miT ufro aritmu-
lia miwodeba.

2. mocemuli periodis ganmavlobaSi faqtiuri miwodebis trendidan

(miwodebis ciklurobis an sxva mudmivi cvlilebebis amsaxveli ZiriTadi
tendenciisa) gadaxris Sefaseba. is arsebiTad emTxveva aproqsimaciis
koeficientis:

 ik  100
Ct  
,

sadac  ik aris faqtobrivi miwodebis saSualokvadratuli gadaxra

trendidan i-uri drois monakveTSi;

 _ miwodebis mosworebuli mniSvneloba drois Sesabamis monakveTSi

(trendi), anu   f(t), sadac t aris drois Sualedis nomeri.

gaTanabrebisaTvis gamoiyeneba erT-erTi droiTi funqcia (trenduli

modelebis), romelic asaxavs saqonlis miwodebis tendencias.

magaliTi. X saqonelze moTxovnis sezonurobis pirobebSi kontraqtSi

dafiqsirebuli iyo wlis I kvartalSi miwodebis moculobis zrda, II kvartalSi
piriqiT yovelTviuri Semcireba. magram dairRva kontraqtis pirobebi da saqonlis
miwodeba ganxorcielda Tanabari partiebiT. (ix. cxr. 2.3).

135
 kontraqtis pirobebis darRvevam ganapiroba miwodebis aritmuloba.
aritmulobis koeficientma Seadgina 2,583, rac metyvelebs kontraqtis
pirobebidan arsebiT gadaxraze.

kontraqtSi saWiroa mocemuli iyos saqonlis dawvrilebiTi specifikacia,

misi parametrebisa da Tvisebebis aRwera da saqonlis xarisxis saerTo
daxasiaTeba.

rogorc cnobilia, produqciis (saqonlis) xarisxSi igulisxmeba TvisebaTa

erToblioba, romelsac SeuZlia daakmayofilos momxmarebeli.

saqonlis xarisxis Seswavlisas (gansazRvrisas) farTod gamoiyeneba Sefasebis

statistikuri meTodebi.

momxmareblisTvis mocemuli saqonlis mimzidvelobas, yidvaze

gadawyvetilebis miRebas da, maSasadame, saqonlis mwarmoeblis komerciul
warmatebas mniSvnelovnad gansazRvravs saqonlis xarisxi da misi
konkurentunarianobis done (Tavis mxriv, konkurentunarianobis donis
ganmsazRvrel erT-erT umniSvnelovanes parametrs saqonlis xarisxi warmoadgens).

cxrili 2.3

saqonlis miwodebis ritmulobis Sefaseba

faqtobrivi koeficientis
miwodebis absoluturi
sakontraqtosTan gadaxra
erTeulisagan
Tveebi kontraqtiT faqtobrivad Sefardebis
qf
koeficienti 1
qk
qf
qk

1 2 3 4 5

1 200 150 0,750 0,250

2 300 200 0,667 0,333

3 400 250 0,750 0,250

4 300 600 2,000 1,000

5 200 250 1,250 0,250

6 100 50 0,500 0,500

136
 sul 1500 1500 2.583

produqciis xarisxi ganisazRvreba mravali maCvenebliT (maCvenebelTa

sistemiT) da sxvadasxva produqciis (saqonlis) xarisxis gansazRvrisaTvis xSirad
sxvadasxva maCvenebeli gamoiyeneba.

maRalxarisxovania is saqoneli, romelic damzadebulia Tanamedrove

moTxovnis teqnikuri standartebis doneze, saimedoa eqsploataciis procesSi
(moulodnelad ar gamova mwyobridan, ar daazianebs momxmarebels da a.S.),
daculia misi gamoyenebis winaswargansazRvruli vadebi, Seesabameba Tanamedrove
esTetikur da ergonomikur moTxovnebs, agreTve modas da akmayofilebs
momxmarebelTa individualur moTxovnebs.

saqonlis xarisxis gansazRvris erT-erT meTods baluri Sefasebis meTodi

warmoadgens. am meTodis Tanaxmad, dgeba saqonlis ZiriTadi parametrebis
(Tvisebebis, niSnebis) CamonaTvali, romelic iyofa mkacr (teqnologiur) da rbil
(dizaini, ergonomika, moda) parametrebad. TiToeul parametrs mieniWeba bali
(makacr parametrebs _ standartidan, normodan gadaxris donis mixedviT), xolo
rbil parametrebs _ eqspertuli Sefasebebis mixedviT). erTdroulad TiToeuli
parametrisaTvis dgindeba rangi an wona.

xarisxis zogadi, integraluri maCvenebeli ganisazRvreba, rogorc saSualo

ariTmetikuli sidide, parametrebis balebidan, romelic Sewonilia parametrebis
rangebis mixedviT. am mizniT SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes formula:

R W i i
R i
n
,
W i
i

sadac R aris i-uri parametris bali (qula), romelic axasiaTebs saqonlis

Sesabamisobas teqnologiur da samomxmareblo moTxovnebTan:

Wi_ i-uri parametris wona (rangi);

n _ i-uri parametrebis ricxvi.

saxelSekrulebo pirobebis analizSi xarisxis balur SefasebebTan erTad

gamoiyeneba xarisxianobis (sortulobis) indeqsi. es indeqsi iZleva saSualebas

137
dadgindes Tu ra zomiT Seesabameba miwodebis struqtura sortulobis niSnis
mixedviT kontraqtis pirobebs.

ganasxvaveben sortulobis indeqsis agebis or variants:

 saSualo fasebis mixedviT (sadac xarisxis gamzomad gamodis fasi). am

meTodis arsi mdgomareobs imaSi, rom xdeba miwodebis xelSekrulebis
pirobebSi gaTvaliswinebuli sortuli struqturis mixedviT formirebuli
saqonlis saxelSekrulebo Rirebulebis Sedareba faqtiuri struqturis
RirebulebasTan. mocemuli meTodi moxerxebulia, ramdenadac is armoiTxovs
eqspertul balur Sefasebebs da miwodebis gadaangariSebebs.
 xarisxisa da Sesatyvisi sortis uSualo baluri Sefasebebis mixedviT. am
variantSi saSualo fasebis nacvlad xdeba saSualo balis gaangariSeba
xelSkrulebiT gaTvaliswinebuli sortulobis struqturis mixedviT. misi
upiratesoba vlindeba iseT pirobebSi rodesac sabazro situacia (ufro
xSirad gamyidvelis bazarze) amaxinjebs fasebis proporciebs, xdis maT
arastabilurs, ar asaxavs sxvadasxva xarisxis samomxmareblo Rirebulebas.

bazris dinamikisa da meryeobis maCveneblebTan mWidrodaa

dakavSirebuli riskis maCveneblebi. cxadia, rom bazris ganviTarebis
xasiaTi, veqtori, siCqare, misi mdgradobis done da Camoyalibebuli
proporciebi mniSvnelovnad gansazRvravs biznesmenis (komersantis) risks.
riskis cnebaSi igulisxmeba komerciuli warumateblobis miRebis
(gancdis) albaToba.
bazarze ganasxvaveben riskis sxvadasxva saxeobas, romlebic
SeiZleba dakavSirebuli iyos gakotrebis saSiSroebasTan, investiciebis
mTlian an nawilobriv dakargvasTan, dagegmili mogebis miuReblobasTan,
bazridan gamoZevebasTan an SeviwroebasTan.

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 zemoT motanil maCvenebelTa CamonaTvalSi erT-erT umniSvnelovanes
qvebloks warmoadgens saqmiani aqtiuroba, romlis maCveneblebic
TvalsaCinod gamoxatavs bazarze Seqmnil mdgomareobas.
farTo gagebiT, saqmiani aqtiurobis gansazRvrisaTvis gamoiyeneba
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistemis meore
blokisa (fasebis mdgomareoba da maTi cvlilebis maCvenebeli) da mesame
blokis (saqonelmoZraoba, romelic aerTianebs qveblokebs _
saqonelbrunva, sasaqonlo maragi da saqonelbrunvadoba) maCveneblebi,
agreTve saqonlisa da momsaxureobis, fasiani qaRaldebis, investiciebis,
Sromis bazrebis da ekonomikis zogierTi sxva maCveneblebi.
saqmiani aqtiurobis aRniSnul maCvenebelTa indeqsebi gamoiyeneba
mTlianad sabazro ekonomikis analizisaTvis. isini agreTve Sedian bazris
iseT rTul saprognozo modelSi, romelic ekonomikuri barometris
saxelwodebiTaa cnobili.
ufro viwro gagebiT ki, saqmiani aqtiuroba Seicavs SekveTebis
`portfels~, anu gayidvis an Sesyidvis Taobaze dadebuli kontraqtebis
raodenobasa da moculobas. saqmiani aqtiurobis maCvenebels miekuTvneba
ganxorcielebuli kontraqtebis (garigebebis) maxasiaTeblebi, rogoricaa:
maTi raodenoba da moculoba, dinamika da sixSire. SekveTebis maCveneblebi
utoldeba firmebis potencialur SesaZleblobebs (sawarmoo an savaWro
simZlavres) da amis safuZvelze ganisazRvreba mocemul periodSi
simZlavreTa datvirTvis done, agreTve gamoiyeneba TiToeuli SekveTisa da
SekveTebis mTliani erTobliobis sargeblianoba (momgebianoba), rac iZleva
mogebis dagegmvis (prognozirebis) saSualebas.
sabazro koniunqturis statistikis umniSnelovanesi maCvenebelia
monopolizaciisa da konkurenciis donis Sefaseba. mas miekuTvneba firmebis
raodenoba da zoma (sidide), maT mier bazarze dakavebuli xvedriTi wona,
am niSnebis mixedviT maTi ganawileba. es saSualebas iZleva ganisazRvros
bazris tipi, aigos bazris tipologiis Sesabamisi matrica, mieces
Sesabamisi daxasiaTeba bazris dayofis (segmentaciis) process.

139
 sasaqonlo bazris koniunqturis arapirdapir daxasiaTebad unda
CaiTvalos situacia, romelic Seqmnilia fasiani qaRaldebis bazarze.
aqciebze moTxovnis moculoba da misi kursi mniSvnelovnadaa
damokidebuli bazarze firmis (firmebis) mdgomareobasTan. amitom aqciebis
sabirJo indeqsebi SeiZleba ganxilul iqnes rogorc sabazro koniunqturis
damoukidebeli indikatorebi.
sabazro situaciis koniunqturuli Sefasebebi
bazris koniunqturis analizis gansaxorcieleblad, marTalia,
gamoiyeneba specifikuri meTodebi, romlebic ZiriTadad eyrdnoba sabazro
situaciis xarisxobriv da atributul maCveneblebs, magram praqtikulad
yvela maTgani saeqsporto meTodis kategorias miekuTvneba.
yvelaze ufro xSirad gamoiyeneba koniunqturuli mimoxilvebi,
sadac mimomxilvelis gamocdilebisa da dakvirvebis safuZvelze keTdeba
situaciis logikuri aRwera, faqtebis konstatacia da sxvadasxva
specialistebis mier gamoTqmul SexedulebaTa damowmeba. bolos
formulirdeba daskvnebi, romelSic gamoiyeneba situaciis atributuli
Sefasebebi: xelsayreli (maRali) koniunqtura. aseTi daskvnis gakeTebis
niSnebia: gawonasworebuli (dabalansebuli) bazari, stabiluri an aRmavali
gayidvis moculoba, gawonasworebuli fasebi da a.S. an piriqiT,
araxelsayreli (dabali) koniunqtura, romlis niSnebia: bazris
disproporciebi, moTxovnis ararseboba an moTxovnis arasasurveli
cvlileba, fasebis mkveTri meryeoba, gasaRebis krizisi, saqonlis
deficiti, maragis gaumarTlebeli zrda da a.S. amasTan, xarisxobrivi
Sefasebebi Cveulebriv keTdeba rogorc eqspertuli modelirebis, ise
cifrobrivi masalebis vizualuri Sefasebebis meSveobiT. amitom
xarisxobrivi da atributuli Sefasebebi kargad uTavsdeba statistikis
sagans.
sabazros koniunqturis gasazomad da Sesafaseblad gamoiyeneba e. w.
koniunqturuli indikatorebi. sabazro koniunqturis statistikaSi aseTi
indikatorebia fasebi, sasaqonlo maragi, saqmiani aqtiurobis maCveneblebi,

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agreTve specifikuri xarisxobrivi da atributuli koniunqturuli
Sefasebebi, romlebic efuZneba specialistebis gamocdilebasa da
mosazrebebs.
koniunqturis indikatorebi analizis miznebidan da bazris
ganviTarebis Taviseburebebidan gamomdinare, SeiZleba iyos rogorc
absoluturi, ise SefardebiTi sidideebi.
bazari SeiZleba Sefasdes saqmiani aqtiurobis indeqsebiT, magram
gasaTvaliswinebelia calkeuli maTganis Taviseburebebi. magaliTad,
garigebaTa ricxvis mateba gayidvis moculobis zrdis gareSe ar SeiZleba
CaiTvalos bazris gamococxlebis maCveneblad da miuTiTebs sabazro
procesSi iseTi firmebis Cabmaze, romlebic dakavebulni arian mcire
operaciebiT (garigebebiT). maragis zrda, inflaciisa da deficitis
arsebobis pirobebSi, miuTiTebs krizisis dawyebaze, rodesac fasebis
matebis gamo mkveTrad mcirdeba moTxovna.
Cveulebriv, arsebobs bazris mdgomareobis Sefasebis Semdegi
xarisxobrivi maCveneblebi: gamococxlebuli, ganviTarebadi, stabiluri,
mdgradi, usicocxlo, stagnaciuri (Sekvecili), regresiuli, Semcirebadi
bazari da a. S.
koniunqturul SefasebaTa sistemaSi mniSvnelovani adgili ukavia
bazrebis masStabebisa da tipebis maCvenebels. bazris moculoba
ganisazRvreba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis gayidvis moculobiT, agreTve
bazarze gasuli im firmebis raodenobiTa da zomiT (sididiT), romlebic
gamyidvelis rolSi gvevlinebian.
amasTan, xorcieldeba firmebis funqcionaluri specializaciis
daxasiaTeba, rogoricaa: gasaReba, sabiTumo-saSuamavlo vaWroba, sacalo
vaWroba, momsaxurebis gaweva.
firmebi jgufdeba sakuTrebis formebisa da maT mier bazarze
dakavebuli wilismixedviT. aseve specialuri gamokvlevebis safuZvelze
ganisazRvreba araorganizebuli bazrebis saorientacio masStabebi.

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 erTgvarovani da urTierTSemcvleli saqonliT movaWre firmebis
raodenobisa da zomebis, maTi bazarze dakavebuli wilis mixedviT
ganawileba SesaZleblobas iZleva ganisazRvros konkurenciis masStabebi
da
gavrcelebis done.
konkurenciisa da monopolizaciis niSnis mixedviT bazris tipebis
dasaxasiaTeblad igeba matrica (ix. cxrili 4.2), romelSic Seitaneba
rogorcstatistikuri monacemebi, ise institucionalurad dadgenili da
saeqsperto SefasebebiT miRebuli informacia (monacemebi). cxrili SeiZleba
aigos bazrebis iseTi tipebis mixedviT, rogoricaa: monopoliuri,
oligopoliuri da wminda konkurenciis bazari.
cxrili 4.2
bazris tipologiis matrica

F
bazris tipebi firmebis saqonlis fasebis arafasismieri
raodenoba saxeoba kontroli konkurencia

wminda konkurencia Zalian bevri standartizi araris araris

rebuli

monopolosturi bevri diferenci viwro reklama

konkurencia rebuli CarcoebSi servisi da a.S.

oligopolia ramodenime standartizir SezRuduli sxvadasxva

ebuliandiferen formebi
cirebuli

wminda monopolia erTi unikaluri mniSvnelovani konsiumerizmi

142
 4.4. riskis faqtorebi bazarze da maTi Sefaseba
komerciuli saqmianobis ganxorcielebisas aucileblad
gasaTvaliswinebelia riskis faqtori, radgan igi komerciuli saqmianobis
Seucvlel komponents warmoadgens da mniSvnelovanwilad konkurentuli
brZolis arsebobiTaa ganpirobebuli.
rogorc cnobilia, riskSi igulisxmeba imis SiSi, rom firma an
komersanti miiRebs (ganicdis) danakargebs, ver miaRwevs Tavis miznebs,
dakargavs Tavis poziciebs bazarze, ver Seasrulebs
sakontraqtovaldebulebas, ver miiRebs gaTvaliswinebul (dagegmil)
mogebas da a.S. riski, warmoadgens ra rTul sazogadoebriv movlenas,
ganuyoflad aris
dakavSirebuli sabazro procesebTan, saerTo ekonomikur
koniunqturasTan, socialur-politikur mdgomareobasTan, erovnul
TaviseburebebTan, demografiul faqtorebTan da a.S. riski imis gamo, rom
miekuTvneba albaTur kategorias, uSualo gazomvas ar eqvemdebareba, rac
aZnelebs riskis obieqtur statistikur gamokvlevasa da gansazRvras.
riski ganpirobebulia bazarze moqmedi uamravi faqtoriT, romelTa
warmoSobis zusti winaswarmetyveleba da maTi sabazro procesebze
zegavlenis gansazRvra sakmaod rTulia. am SemTxvevaSi, igulisxmeba firmis
rogorc Sida, ise garegan garemoSi moqmedi is faqtorebi, romelic
uaryofiT gavlenas axdens komerciul saqmianobaze da did saSiSroebas
uqmnis firmis ara marto efeqtianobas, aramed mis arsebobasac ki. amis gamo
gansakurebiT didi mniSvneloba eniWeba aseTi faqtorebis warmoSobis
winaswarganWvretas raime zomiT mainc, raTa miRebul iqnes Sesabamisi
gadawyvetilebebi maTi zegavlenis Tavidan asacileblad an uaryofiTi
gavlenis Sesamcireblad.

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 firmis an komersantis riskis albaToba miT ufro didia, rac ufro
gaurkvevelia firmis garemo (gansakuTrebiT garegani kavSiri) da
maSasadame, bazarze mimdinare procesebi.
miuxedavadamisa, firmas xSirad SeuZlia gamoicnos da prognozireba
gaukeTos sxvadasxva faqtorebis aRmocenebasa da bazarze movlenebis
ganviTarebas. es gansakuTrebiT maSin aris SesaZlebeli, rodesac firmas
hyavs maRalkvalificiuri, Tanamedrove da strategiul menejments
dauflebuli mmarTvelebi da specialistebi. aseT pirobebSi firmas
(komersants) yovelTvis SeiZleba hqondes arCevani _ ar gariskos da
dakmayofildes naklebi mogebiT, an didi mogebisa da saqmianobis
gafarToebis mizniT wavides riskze.
yovelive aRniSnulTan dakavSirebiT da praqtikul gamocdilebaze
dayrdnobiT gamoiyeneba riskis dayofa or atributul jgufad: dasaSvebi,
gardauvali riski da zedmeti, dauSvebeli riski.
amasTan TiTqmmis yovelTvis gansazRvraven SesaZlo danakargebis
moculobas. rac ufro SezRudulia firma da naklebi alternativa gaaCnia,
an saerTod ar gaaCnia, miT ufro met riskze wasvlis winaSe dgeba igi.
ganasxvaveben riskis sxvadasxva saxeobas. kerZod, arsebobs
gamyidvelis, myidvelis, investoris, savaWro komersantisa da mewarmis
riski(gansakuTrebiT axali saqonlis gamoSvebisas) da sxv.
risks agreTve ganasxvaveben TavianTi saSiSroebis formebis mixedviT.
aseTebia: dabandebuli saxsrebis (investiciebis) sruli da nawilobrivi
dakargvis, gakotrebis, bazridan gamodevnis, momxmareblis mier axali
saqonlis arcnobis, kreditis dakargvis, inflaciasTan dakavSirebuli
riski da sxv.
rogorc riskis saxeobebis CamonaTvalidan Cans, mravali riski
erTmaneTTanaa dakavSirebuli da erTmaneTs ganapirobebs.
ukanasknel periodSi riskis donis Sesamcireblad didi yuradReba
eqceva komerciuli saqmianobis (sameurneo saqmianobis) riskis dazRvevas,
romliTac amJamad bevri sadazRveo kompania da bankia dakavebuli.

144
 manamde, sanam firma (komersanti) risks daazRvevdes, saWiroa,
erTmaneTs Seutoldes sadazRveo danaxarjebi da riskis warmoSobis
albaTobis done.
komerciuli (savaWro) saqmianobis da, kerZod, sabazro koniunqturis
statistikis erT-erT amocanas riskis Sefaseba warmoadgens.
arsebobs riskis statistikuri Sefasebis sami ZiriTadi xerxi:
eqspertul-atributuli Sefaseba, romelic emyareba riskis warmoSobis
intuiciur Sefasebas; riskis faqtorebisa da kriteriumebis eqspertul-
baluri Sefaseba, romlis drosac gamoiyeneba sabazro koniunqturis
analizisa da Semdgom statistikur damuSavebaTa Sedegad miRebuli riskis
maCveneblebi; riskis albaTobis Sefaseba statistikuri modelebis
gamoyenebiT; riskis donis Sefaseba marketingis strategiuli matricebis
meSveobiT.
sabazro koniunqturis Sefasebidan gamomdinare, riskis kriteriumebs
miekuTvneba:
 bazris cvlilebebis (ganviTarebis) tendenciebi, siCqare da veqtori;
 bazris mdgradobis (meryeobis) done;
 konkurenciis intensiurobis Sefaseba (konkurentuli bazris tipi);
 konkurentuli firmebis raodenoba da simZlavre, calkeuli
konkurenti firmis wili bazarze);
 sabazro koniunqturis ciklis Sefaseba;
 riskis albaTobis Sefaseba (warmatebis Sansi), romelic gakeTebulia
warsulis gamocdilebis, eqsperimentis da analogouri modelebis
safuZvelze;
 politikuri situaciis stabiluroba da mewarmeobis
institucionaluri daculobis done.

ganasxvaveben riskis obieqtur pirobebs, romlebTan aucilebelia

adaptireba da riskis im faqtorebs, romlebic garkveuli zomiT
eqvemdebareba marketingul zemoqmedebas. am ukanasknelTa ricxvSi Sedis:

145
  mdgradoba mocemul lokalur bazarze;
 SekveTebis `portfelis~ mdgomareoba;
 bazarze konkurentebis arseboba Tu ararseboba, maTi wili bazarze;
 moTxovnisa da miwodebis gawonasworebuloba, moTxovnis done da misi
tendencia;
 firmebis uzrunvelyofis done sanedleulo, sasaqonlo, fuladi da
SromiTi resursebiT;
 firmis mier gasayidi saqonlis fasebis done;
 firmis konkurentunarianobis done (axali saqonlis arseboba,
mecnierul-teqnikuri progresisa da momuSaveTa done,
TviTRirebuleba, marketinguli muSaobis done da sxv.);
 firmis finansuri mdgomareobis done;
 firmis materialur-teqnikuri bazis mdgomareoba;
 firmis kadrebis profesiulobis done.
firmas SeuZlia da aucilebelicaa efeqturi RonisZiebebis SemuSa-
vebiT win aRudges moaxloebul saSiSroebebs da amiT Seamciros riskis
done. aseT RonisZiebebs SeiZleba miekuTvnos:
 warmoebis da savaWro saqonelbrunvis diversifikacia. diversifikacia
niSnavs erT firmaSi erTdroulad mravali saxis produqciis
warmoebis ganxorcielebas, sasaqonlo asortimentis gafarToebasa
(savaWro firmaSi) da momxmareblamde misi dayvanis sxvadasxva
xerxebis gamoyenebas;
 investiciebisa da Sedegebis (komerciuli saqmianobis da sxv.)
dazRveva;
 sakuTar SesaZleblobaTa obieqturi da dasabuTebuli Sefaseba;
 dagegmili sargeblianobis maqsimalurad miRweva(maqsimizacia),
romelic gaiangariSeba yvela SesaZlo Sedegis sargeblianobis
saSualo ariTmetikulis gamoyvaniT, sadac Sedegebis albaToba
gamodis wonebis rolSi.

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 riskis Sefasebisas praqtikulad yvelaze xelmisawvdomia
eqspertuli meTodi. riskis raodenobrivi Sefaseba xorcieldeba
koniunqturis analizis safuZvelze. riskis gamzomad gamodis bazris
ZiriTadi parametrebis meryeobisa da mdgradobis maCveneblebi, agreTve misi
ganviTarebis (cvlilebebis) tendenciebis maxasiaTeblebi. rac ufro
intensiuria variacia, sxva Tanabar SemTxvevaSi, miT ufro maRalia riskis
done. rac didia bazris tevadoba da rac ufro xelsayrelia misi
tendenciebi, miT ufro mcirea riski. am da sxva monacemebis safuZvelze
eqspertebs gamoyavT riskis Sefasebis balebi.
calkeuli riski (R) aRiwereba i-uri faqtorebis (riskis
kriteriumis) gansazRvruli ricxviT (n), romelic ar aRemateba 10-s.
calkeuli maTgani ranJirdeba riskis albaTobis donis mixedviT da xdeba
misi normireba, e.i. calkeuls miakuTvneben gansazRvrul bals (Bi), 1-dan 10-
mde. amasTan, riskianobis donis gaTvaliswinebiT, calkeul aseT faqtors
eqspertuli gziT miakuTvneben Tavis wonas (Wi), romelmac unda asaxos
faqtoris gavlenis xvedriTi wona riskis mTlian sidideSi. wonebis jami
utoldeba 1-s. romelime faqtoris ararseboba fasdeba nulad. faqtoris
bali mravldeba Sesabamis wonaze. xolo Sedegebis jami gansazRvravs
mocemuli riskis sidides. es damokidebuleba gamoixateba formuliT:
n
R   (RWi ) (4.5)
i

rac ufro axloa R 1-Tan, miT mcirea riski, xolo rac ufro axloa
10-Tan, miT ufro maRalia riski. amasTan, arsebobs riskis zonis cneba.
riskis zona warmoadgens sazRvrebs, romlebSic riski ar aWarbebs
gansazRvrul sidideebs. riskis sazRvrebi gamoixateba riskis saSualo

donis sididiT ( R ).
riskis sazRvrebis skalamocemuliacxrilSi (ix. cxrili 4.3)

cxrili 4.3

riskis sazRvrebis skala

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 riskis
zonis 0 0,1-2,5 2,5-5,0 5,1-7,5 7,6-10,0
sazRvrebi

riskis urisko minimaluri amaRlebuli riskis dauSvebeli

zonebi zona riskis zona riskis zona kritikuli riskis zona
zona

riskis zonis operatiuli gansazRvra xorcieldeba marketinguli

matricis meSveobiT. am dros bazarze firmis poziciis dadgena xdeba ori
kriteriumis mixedviT. es kriteriumebia: bazris mdgomareoba da firmis
sakuTari SesaZleblobebi. aRniSnuli ori maxasiaTebeli gamoisaxeba
koordinantebis saxiT, romelTa gadakveTac aRniSnavs firmis
mdgomareobasa da, Sesabamisad, riskis dones.
garda amisa, riskis albaToba ganisazRvreba rogorc eqspertuli
gziT _ analogebis analizis safuZvelze, agreTve riskis Teoriis
daskvnebs dafuZnebuli meTodikis meSveobiT, (statistikur
gadawyvetilebaTa Teoriebs).
ganusazRvrelobis pirobebSi es meTodika iZleva alternatiuli
variantebidan optimaluri sabazro strategiisa da
taqtikisamorCevissaSualebasstatistikuri dakvirvebis Sedegebis mixedviT.
magaliTad. moTxovnis Cavardnis (mkveTri Semcirebis) SemTxvevaSi
SesaZlebelia an Sewydes vardnis nakeTobis gamoSveba (savaWro obieqtze
saqonlis Semotana) da bazridan wasvla, an modernizaciis, fasebis
Semcirebisa da sxva RonisZiebebis gatarebis safuZvelze ganxorcieldes
Camqrali moTxovnis reanimacia (aRdgena).
gadawyvetilebis arCeva emyareba Semdeg strategiebs:
 maqsimaluri danakargebis minimizacia;
 udidesi riskis minimizacia;
 riskis maqsimizacia: azartis strategiiT;
 kompromisuloba: minimaluri da maqsimaluri danakargebidan saSualo;
 sasargeblo efeqtis maqsimaluri (zogjer saSualo) mniSvneloba;

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  maqsimaluri molodini.
amasTan erTad, xSirad gamoiyeneba Sereuli strategia, romlis
gaangariSebis aparati warmodgenilia maTematikuri statistikis Sesabamis
naSromebSi. albaTuri Sefasebebi, romlebic keTdebasabazro situaciebis
Sesabamisad, saSualebas iZleva moxdes riskis Sedareba kapitalTan,
romelsac flobs firma.
zogierT mkvlevars riskis Sefasebisas Semoaqvs saqonlis
sargeblianobis funqcia.(a. pervozvanski).
naSromSi `riski Tanamedrove biznesSi~, romlis avtorebi arian: p.
grabovi, s. petrovi da sxv. ganxilulia danakargebis albaTobis analizis
statistikuri meTodi lorencis mrudis meSveobiT da zogierTi donis
danaxarjebis aRmocenebis (warmoSobis) sixSire formuliT:

N1
F (4.6)
N saerT.

sadac F aris zogadi donis danakargebis aRmocenebis (warmoSobis) sixSire;

N 1 _ danakargebis konkretuli donis dadgomis SemTxvevaTa ricxvi;
NsaerT. _SemTxvevaTa saerTo raodenoba statistikur SerCevaSi,

romelicagreTve Seicavs warmatebiT ganxorcielebul operaciebs.

firmis finansuri mdgomareobis Sefasebis praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba e.w.

skoringuli modelebi (inglisuri sityvaa da niSnavs davalianebas), e.i.
firmebis gakotrebis albaTobis modelebi.
am modelebs Semdegi saxe gaaCniaT:
n
Zf   A i X1 (4.7)
i

sadac Zf aris qulaTa jami, romelic miekuTvneba firmis finansur-

ekonomikuri mdgomareobis calkeul i-ur paramets.

Zf _ i-uri parametris mniSvneloba;

A _ calkeuli parametris wona an rangi, romelic ganisazRvreba

149
 empiriulad;
n _ i-uri parametrebis ricxvi.
winaswar, empiriuli gziT dgindeba parametrebis jamis normativi ( Znorm );im
SemTxvevaSi, rodesac parametrebis jami normativze mcire an tolia
( Zf > Znorm ) firmis finansuri mdgomareoba myaria da gakotrebis albaToba

didi ar aris; parametrebis jami im SemTxvevaSi,rodesac igi normativze

mcirea ( Zf < Znorm ), firmas emuqreba gakotreba.

4.5. bazris potencialis, tevadobis, gajerebulobis da proporciulobis

gansazRvra
nebismieri bazris potenciuri SesaZleblobebi udides gavlenas
axdens bazris rogorc arsebuli mdgomareobis ganmsazRvrel nebismier
parametrze, ise misi strategiuli ganviTarebis yvela mimarTulebaze.
bazris potencialis cnebaSi igulisxmeba sawarmoo da
samomxmareblo Zalebis prognozuli erToblioba, romelic ganapirobebs
moTxovnisa da miwodebis sidides (moculobas).
sawarmoo potenciali aris mocemul periodSi (weliwadSi)
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebis is moculoba, romelic firmas
(firmaTa jgufs, mocemuli regionis firmaTa erTobliobas) SeuZlia
waradginos bazarze sawarmoo faqtorebis maqsimaluri efeqtianobiT
gamoyenebis pirobebSi. misi sawinaaRmdegoa samomxmareblo potenciali,
romelic gulisxmobs bazris SesaZleblobas, gansazRvruli periodis
manZilze (weliwadSi) Caylapos (iyidos) saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
gansazRvruli moculoba.
amasTan, aRsaniSnavia, rom sawarmo potencialis Sefaseba da analizi
myidvelebis interesTa, xolo samomxmareblo potenciali gamyidvelebis
interesTa wres miekuTvneba, ramdenadac saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris
potencialis realizaciis Sedegs myidvelobiTi (gadaxdisunariani)

150
moTxovnis dakmayofileba, sasaqonlo da momsaxurebis masis mimoqcevis
sferoSi CarTva da misi moxmarebis sferoSi gadasvla warmoadgens.
sayuradReboa is faqtic, rom bazris potencialis cneba
faqtobrivad, ufro farToa, vidre is sabazro koniunqturis statistikaSia
warmodgenili.
saqme isaa, rom bazris saerTo potencials miekuTvneba: safinanso-
sakredito potenciali, sasaqonlo mimoqcevisa da momsaxurebis sferos
materialur-teqnikuri baza da masSi dasaqmebuli muSakebi. bazris
potencialis Sefasebis mizani ki calkeuli firmebis sabazro SesaZ-
leblobaTa daxasiaTebaSi mdgomareobs.
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris potencialis gaangariSeba war-
moebs Semdegi TanmimdevrobiT: ganisazRvreba sawarmoo da samomxmareblo
erTeulTa raodenoba, gaiangariSeba xvedriTi simZlavris maCveneblebi
warmoebisa da moxmarebis Sesabamisad. gaangariSebaSi (formulaSi)
Seiyvaneba miwodebisa da moTxovnis elastikurobis maCveneblebi fasebze,
Semosavlebsa da bazris sxva faqtorebze damokidebulebiT, SeiZleba aseve
gamoiyos bazris is xvedriTi wona, romelic firmis gaangariSebiT
konkurentebs rCebaT. gaangariSebaSi aseve SeiZleba Setanil iqnes
maCveneblebi, romlebic zRudaven an afarToveben warmoebisa da moxmarebis
moculobas.
bazris sawarmoo potenciali ganisazRvreba formuliT:
n
Pb   ( N i  Wi  Z x )  F j (4.8)
i

sadac Pb aris bazris potenciali;

N i _ warmoebis erTeulebi;
Wi _ sawarmoo erTeulis simZlavris maCveneblebi;
Z x _ moTxovnis an miwodebis elastikuroba;
F j _ potencialis sxva faqtorebi da elementebi;

n _ warmoebis an moxmarebis erTeulTa ricxvi.

151
 vrceli saxiT sawarmoo potencialis (sasaqonlo miwodebis
potencialis) gaangariSeba mocemul periodSi SeiZleba moxdes Semdegi
formuliT:

 
n
Ps.m.   ( N i * Wi * Di * Ri  * T pmat. * Eelast.koef . * K )  B  C , (4.9)
i

sadac Ps.m. aris bazris sawarmoo potenciali, anu saqonlis moculoba,

romelic SeiZleba warmoebul iqnes da miewodos bazars
gansazRvruli periodis ganmavlobaSi;
Ni _ firma an firmaTa jgufi, romlebic awarmoeben i -ur
saqonels (momsaxurebas);
Wi _ firmis an firmaTa jgufis saSualo simZlavre i -uri
saqonelis gamoSvebaze;
Di _ sawarmoosimZlavreebis datvirTvis saSualo done;
Ri _ resursebiT uzrunvelyofis done, romelic aucilebelia
sawarmoo programis realizaciisaTvis (SesrulebisaTvis);
T p.mat 
* E pelsty. _ sabiTumo fasebis cvlilebaze Sesworeba, sadac

T p.mat _fasebis matebis tempia, xolo E p.elast _ produqciisa da

nedleulis miwodebis elastikuroba fasebze damokidebulebiT;

K _ saqonlis konkurentunarianobaze Sesworeba;
B _ Sida sawarmoo moxmareba normativebis mixedviT;
C_konkurirebadi importi;
n _ i-uri sawarmoo firmaTa ricxvi.

praqtikaSi, SekveTebis porTfelis informaciaze dayrdnobiT

SesaZlebelia sawarmoo potencialis Semdegi ufro martivi modelis
gamoyeneba:

  
Pp   qlj * T pmat * E p.elast  B  
n
(4.10)
l

sadac qi j aris saqonlis (momsaxurebis) moculoba, romelic dagegmilia

gamosaSvebad i-ur sawarmoo firmaSi SekveTebis portfelis

Sesabamisad

152
 n _ firmaTa ricxvi, romlebTanac gaformebulia kontraqti j -uri
saqonelis miwodebaze.

bazris potencialis gansazRvris mniSvnelobas zrdis is faqtic,

rom is umniSvnelovanes rols TamaSobs myidvelobiTi (gadaxdisunariani)
moTxovnis SeswavlaSi.

samomxmareblo potenciali xasiaTdeba bazris tevadobiT. Ges

maCvenebeli, marTalia, axlos dgas moTxovnis moculobasTan, magram
mTlianad ar aris gaigivebuli masTan.

bazris tevadoba warmoadgens saqonlis im raodenobas (Rire-

bulebas), romelic SeuZlia Caylapos (gayidos) bazarma garkveul
pirobebSi drois romelime monakveTSi.
bazris tevadoba zogjer ganisazRvreba moTxovnis msgavsad,
moTxovnis mravalfaqtoruli prognozuli modelis meSveobiT. es
gaangariSeba albaTuri, xSirad mravalvariantuli xasiaTis matarebelia.
bazris tevadobis gaangariSebis meore meTodi _ multiplikaciur-
aditiuri modeli _ warmoadgens ZiriTads normatiul da eqspertul
maCveneblebSi. igi universaluria da gamoiyeneba rogorc warmoebis
saSualebaTa, ise moxmarebis sagnebis samomxmareblo bazrebisaTvis.
bazris tevadoba ganisazRvreba konkretuli saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis calkeuli lokaluri bazrebis WrilSi. bazris tevadoba am
SemTxvevaSi ganisazRvreba formuliT:L
n
PR   (Si    Z)  V  (Q  d f  d m )  R  C , (4.11)
i

sadac PR bazris tevadoba (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis raodenoba da

Rirebuleba, romelic SeiZleba gaiyidos gansazRvrul periodSi);

Si _ i-uri momxmarebelTa raodenoba;
 _ moxmarebis done (koeficienti) sabaziso periodSi, an i-uri
jgufis momxmarebelTa moxmarebis normativi (normativebi:

153
 teqnologiuri _ warmoebis saSualebebisaTvis, fiziologiuri _
kvebis produqtebisaTvis, racionaluri _ arasasursaTo
produqtebisa da momsaxurebisaTvis);
Z _ moTxovnis elastikurobis koeficienti fasebsa da Semosavlebze
damokidebulebiT;
V _ saqonlis normaluri sadazRveo rezervis (maragis) moculoba;
Q _ bazris gajerebuloba _ mosaxleobis saojaxo meurneobaSi
arsebuli saqonlis moculoba an firmebSi arsebuli warmoebis
saSualebaTa moculoba mocemuli periodisaTvis;
d f _ saqonlis fizikuri cveTa;

d m _ saqonlis moraluri cveTa;

R _ bazris gareT moTxovnis dakmayofilebis alternatiuli formebi
(moxmarebis naturaluri wyaroebi, Savi bazari);
C _ konkurentebis xvedriTi wona bazarze.

bazris gajerebulobis maCvenebeli damoukidebel rols TamaSobs

sabazro koniunqturis analizis dros, radgan zRudavs ra moTxovnas, igi
Zlier gavlenas axdens bazris ciklurobaze, bazris gajerebuloba
uCvenebs saqonliT uzrunvelyofis dones, romelic ganisazRvreba an
eqspertuli gziT, an saojaxo meourneobaTa SerCeviTi gamokvlevis
safuZvelze. xangrZlivi moxmarebis saqonlisaTvis gamoiyeneba
gaangariSebis sabalanso meTodi, romelic xorcieldeba Semdegi formulis
mixedviT:
Qb  Q   R  C , (4.12)

sadac Q b aris saqonlis raodenoba (moculoba) periodis bolos;

Q  _ arsebuli saqonlis raodenoba periodis dasawyisSi;

R _ SeZenili saqonlis raodenoba (moculoba) mocemul periodSi;
C _ gasuli saqonlis raodenoba mocemul periodSi, romelic moxda
saqonlis (xangrZlivi moxmarebis) fizikuri da moraluri cveTis
gamo.

154
 am SemTxvevaSi gaTvaliswinebul unda iqnes, rom saqonlis gasvla
gaiangariSeba xangrZlivi moxmarebis saqonlis samsaxuris saSualo
xangrZlivobis normativebis safuZvelze.
saqonlis fizikuri da moraluri cveTa saqonlis Secvlis
aucileblobas iwvevs. moxmarebaSi (eqspluataciaSi) myofi saqonlis
fizikuri da gansakuTrebiT moraluri cveTis gamo saqonlis gasvla
damokidebulia ara marto misi samsaxuris vadis gansazRvrul teqnikur
normativebze, aramed mosaxleobis Semosavlebis moculobaze. misi zrdis
SemTxvevaSi Cqardeba xangrZlivi moxmarebis sagnebis Secvlis
aucilebloba, anu mcirdeba maTi samsaxuris faqtobrivi vada. saqonlis
moraluri cveTis procesis mimdinareobis Seswavla warmoebs specialuri
marketinguli gamokvlevebis saSualebiT _ gamokiTxvebisa da myidvelobiTi
qcevis Seswavlis meSveobiT.
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari warmoadgens ra rTul
mravalstruqturul kompleqss, misi ganviTareba (cvlileba) sabazro
urTierTobis sxva komponentebTan kavSirSi mimdinareobs.
proporciuloba, e.i. bazris sxvadasxva elements Soris optimaluri
Sefardeba, bazris sijansaRisa da misi Tanmimdevruli normaluri
ganviTarebis (cvlilebis) umniSvnelovanesi pirobaa. xolo, bazris
Semadgeneli elementebis disproporciuloba da deformaciuli
cvlilebebi Zlier arTulebs sabazro urTierTobebs da bazars
araefeqturs xdis.
aRniSnulidan gamomdinare, bazris makro da mikroproporciebis
Seswavla sabazro koniunqturis statistikis mniSvnelovan da aqtualur
amocanas warmoadgens. amasTan, sabazro koniunqturis statistikam ara
marto konstatacia (fiqsireba) da Sefaseba unda gaukeTos bazarze Seqmnil
proporciebs, aramed unda daaxasiaTos kidec proporciaTa cvlilebis
tendenciebi da gaanalizos struqturuli cvlilebebi (Zvrebi).
bazris proporciulobis kvlevis statistikuri aparati Seicavs
analizis Semdeg instrumentebs: sabalanso meTodi, struqturisa da

155
koordinaciis SefardebiTi sidideebi, SefardebiTi (komparatiuli)
indeqsebi, elastikurobis koeficientebi da mravalfaqtoruli modelebis
beta-koeficientebi.
elastikurobis empiruli da Teoriuli koeficientebi ara marto
avlens ama Tu im faqtorze moTxovnisa da miwodebis damokidebulebas,
aramed agreTve adgens gamovlenil damokidebulebaTa proporciulobasac,
radgan aCvenebs Sedegobrivi niSnis procentul cvlilebas faqtoruli
niSnis erTi procentiT gadidebisas (cvlilebisas), xolo beta-koeficienti,
romelic gamoTvlilia regresis mravalfaqtoruli gantolebis
parametrebiT iZleva calkeuli strqturuli faqtorebis gavlenis Zalis
SeTanazomadobis SesaZleblobas.
struqturul analizSi SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes proporciulobis
maCvenebelTa meryeobis (cvalebadobis) analizis meTodebi, maTi trenduli
da regresiuli modelebi, analizis indeqsuri meTodi, firmebisa da
regionebis dajgufeba struqturuli maCveneblebis mixedviT da a.S.
bazris proporciulobis analizSi umTavresad gamoiyeneba
struqturis ori ZiriTadi SefardebiTi maCvenebeli: xvedriTi wonae.i.
nawilis adgili mTelSi da Sefardebis koeficienti, e.i. erTi erTobliobis
ori movlenis uSualo Sepirispireba (Setoleba). pirveli uCvenebs im
adgils, romelsac mocemuli nawili ikavebs mTlian erTobliobaSi.
rogorc wesi, xvedriTi wona gamoiTvleba procentebSi e.i. movlenis 100
erTeulze da koeficientebSi movlenis erT erTeulze.
bazris proporciebis Seswavlisas farTod gamoiyeneba grafikuli
meTodi, kerZod seqtoruli diagramebi. amosavali monacemebi gamoixateba
rogorc naturalur, ise RirebulebiT erTeulebSi. RirebulebiTi
erTeulebis dros xvedriTi wonis sidide damokidebulia ara marto
moculobaTa proporciebze, aramed Sesaswavl erTobliobaSi Semavali
sasaqonlo erTeulebis fasebis Sefardebazec.

156
 bazris proporciulobis analizi unda ganxorcieldes rogorc
statikaSi, ise dinamikaSi. xvedriTi wonis Sedarebisas gamoiTvleba Sefar-
debiTi maCvenebeli: xvedriTi wonis indeqsi.
saboloo angariSiT xvedriTi wonis indeqsi (zrdis tempi)
damokidebulia movlenis mocemuli nawilis da mTlianad movlenis
veqtorisa da siCqaris cvlilebebis Tanafardobaze.
bazris proporciulobis gansakuTrebul maCvenebels miekuTvneba
komparatiuli indeqsi, romelic iZleva dinamikuri proporciebis Sedarebis
saSualebas.
komparatiuli indeqsi warmoadgens ori movlenis indeqsis (zrdis
tempebi) Sefardebas. magaliTad, samomxmareblo saqonlis gayidvis indeqsis
Sefardeba momsaxurebis gayidvis indeqsTan an sacalo saqonelbrunvis
indeqsis Sefardeba mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebis indeqsTan. Tavisi
arsiT komparatiuli indeqsi mosworebis koeficientis gaangariSebis erT-
erTi variantia.
tendenciebis, mdgradobis, xvedriTi wonis damokidebuleba da
proporciulobis sxva maCveneblebis Seswavla xorcieldeba Sesabamisi
statistikuri meTodebis meSveobiT, sadac saqonlis (bazris da a.S.)
xvedriTi wona ganixileba rogorc varirebadi SemTxveviTi sidide:
d i  f ( X 1 X 2 ... X n ). (4.13)
xvedriTi wonis variacia ganisazRvreba dispesiiT:
n

 (d i  d ) 2  Fi
 i
n
(4.14)
F i
i

sadac d i aris varirebadi xvedriTi wona (magaliTad, mosaxleobis xvadasxva

socialuri jgufebis mTlian danaxarjebSi momsaxurebaze gaweuli
danaxarjebis xvedriTi wona;
d _ xvedriTi wonis saSualo mniSvneloba mTlian erTobliobaSi;
Fi _ wonebi, romlebadac SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes erTobliobis

157
 erTeulebis zomis maxasiaTeblebi (magaliTad, mosaxleobis
raodenoba TiToeul socialur jgufebSi).
rogorc cnobilia, proporciulobis gansazRvrisas arsebobs maCve-
nebelTa ierarqiuloba maTi mniSvnelobis mixedviT.
bazris proporciulobis umniSvnelovanes maCvenebels miekuTvneba
miwodebisa da moTxovnis Tanafardoba, romelic asaxavs bazris kanonis
gamovlinebas da gansazRvravs bazris danarCeni kategoriebis ganviTarebis
(cvlilebis) xasiaTsa da mis socialur da ekonomikur efeqtianobas.
Amisi roli koniunqturul analizSi ganxiluli iyo zemoT (ix.
sabazro situaciis koniunqturuli Sefasebebi), sadac agreTve mocemulia
misi Sefasebisa da analizis zogierTi meTodi. aq damatebis saxiT SeiZleba
iTqvas, rom miwodebisa da moTxovnis proporciebi ganisazRvreba rogorc
mTlianad saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris, ise regionalur WrilSi
mTliani sasaqonlo masasa da calkeuli saqonlis mixedviT.
damoukidebeli amocanaa momxmarebelTa sxvadasxva socialur-
ekonomikuri jgufebis moTxovnis Tanafardoba. saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
mTliani erTobliobis mixedviT mocemuli proporciis gazomvis erT-erT
xerxs warmoadgens moTxovnisa da miwodebis balansi, romelSic xdeba
myidvelobiTi fondebis (gadaxdisunariani moTxovnis) sasaqonlo
resursebTan da momsaxurebis potencialTan Sepirispireba. am gziT
gamovlenili saldo gamoiyeneba bazris disproporciis dasaxasiaTeblad
da Sesabamisi niSnebis (+ an _) arsebobis mixedviT dgindeba deficitis
arseboba an gasaRebis krizisi.
magram es xerxi Zneli gamosayenebelia calkeuli saqonlis bazrebis
proporciulobis Sesafaseblad, Tumca principSi SeiZleba ganisazRvros
eqspertuli gziTa da analogiuri meTodebiT myidvelobiTi fondebis jami,
romelic orientirebulia swored mocemuli saqonlis SesaZenad. Semdeg
amave sqemiT xorcieldeba misi Setoleba sasaqonlo resursebis
moculobebTan.

158
 moTxovnis maxasiaTebel maCvenebelTa proporciuli damokidebuleba
faqtorul maCvenebelze SeiZleba gamoixatos elastikurobis koeficientiT,
romelic aCvenebs procentul cvlilebas faqtoruli maCveneblis erTi
procentiT gadidebisas (cvlilebebisas).
moTxovnisa da miwodebis proporciis Sefaseba saqonlis bazarze
koreqtirdeba miwodebis mTlian moculobaSi importis xvedriTi
wonisSetaniT gaangariSebaSi.
bazris umniSvnelovanes proporciad unda CaiTvalos warmoebis
saSualebaTa da moxmarebis sagnebis Tanafardoba. is ganisazRvreba
rogorc statikaSi, ise dinamikaSi (ukanasknel SemTxvevaSi Sesadaris
fasebSi), agreTve gaiangariSeba komparatiuli indeqsi, romelic asaxavs
maTi cvlilebis proporciebs. samomxmareblo niSnis mixedviT bazris
proporciulobis analizis gagrZelebas emsaxureba saqonelbrunvis
dargobrivi da sasaqonlo struqturis daxasiaTeba.

4.6. bazris ganviTarebis, meryeobis da ciklurobis

tendenciaTa analizi
sabazro koniunqturis Sefasebisa da analizis centralur amocanas
misi ganviTarebis tendenciebisada TaviseburebaTa,agreTvemdgradobis
Seswavla warmoadgens.
bazris ganviTarebis veqtoris da siCqaris gansasazRvravad igeba
maCveneblebis _ bazris indikatorebisa da saqmiani aqtiurobis
maCveneblebis dinamikuri mwkrivebi. gamoiTvleba mocemul periodSi
sabaziso, jaWvuri da saSualo zrdis tempebi, agreTve mizanSewonilia
gaangariSdes komparatiuli zrdis tempebi urTierTganmapirobebeli
faqtorebisaTvis _ gansakuTrebiT im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac erTi maCvenebeli
ufro swrafad an ufro nela icvleba, vidre meore.
bazris ganviTarebis tendencia, TvalsaCionoebis mizniT, SeiZleba
gamoisaxos grafikulad.

159
 grafikze aRniSnuli doneebi an tempebi yvelazexSirad asaxavs
ganviTarebis uTanabrobas: daCqarebas, Senelebas, amaRlebebsa da
Cavardnebis naxtomebs. aseT pirobebSi mkafio tendenciaTa aRmoCena da
koniunqturis Sefaseba rTulia.
grafikze aRniSnuli doneTa meryeobebi SeiZleba moswordes sami
xerxiT, TiToeul maTgans Sesabamis situaciaSi Tavisi analizuri
Rirebuleba aqvs:
teqnikuri gaTanabrebis meTodi,rodesac grafikze vizualurad
tardeba Tanabarmoqmedi (gamTanabrebeli) xazi, pirdapiri an mrudi,
romelic mkvlevaris azriT, asaxavs ganviTarebis tendencias
meqanikuri mosworebis meTodi(3,5 da meti donis saSualoTa srialas
gaangariSeba, romelic asaxavs ganviTarebis tendencias an ciklurobas).
analizuri gaTanabrebis meTodi(trendis statistikuri modelis ageba).
aseTnairad gamovlenili mimarTuleba warmoadgens bazris ganviTarebis
(cvlilebis) ZiriTadi tendenciis maxasiaTebels. igi agreTve SeiZleba
gmoyenebul iqnes prognozis gasakeTeblad, ufro zustad
eqstrapoliaciisaTvis, e.i. Camoyalibebuli tendenciebis momaval periodSi
gasavrceleblad.
tendenciaTa Sefasebis teqnikuri meTodis Rirsebaa koniunqturuli
Sefasebis siswrafe da simartive, miuxedavad imisa, rom misi sizuste am
dros ar aris maRali. meqanikuri mosworebis meTodis moxerxebuloba ki
gaangariSebis simartiveSi mdgomareobs. xolo rac Seexeba analizuri
gaTanabrebis meTodis (statistikuri trenduli modelis) upiratesobas, is
ufro maRali donis saimedobiT xasiaTdeba, garda amisa, saSualebas iZleva
moxdes trendis gaTanabrebis parametrebis ekonomikuri interpretireba da
sakmaod TvalsaCinod gamoxatavs tendenciasa da gadaxras misgan.
ganviTarebis xasiaTis Sesabamisad, airCeva pirdapiri an mrude wrfis
Sesabamisi funqcia da igeba Semdegi tipis trendis modeli:
n
Yi  a   b i t i (4.15)
i
sadac t aris periodis nomeri;

160
 a _ gantolobis Tavisufali wevri;
bi _ gantolobis parametrebi.
teqnikuri da trenduli modelebis safuZvelze SeiZleba gamov-
lindes da bolo SemTxvevaSi gaizomos bazris ganviTarebis mdgradoba
droSi. teqnikuri xerxi ki mxolod imis saSualebas iZleva, rom
vizualurad Sefasdes wrfidan (xazidan) mwkrivis faqtobrivi gadaxris
done, romelic axasiaTebs tendencias da gakeTdes mdgradobis donis
atributuli Sefaseba: maRali, dabali da a.S.
bazris dinamikuri ganviTarebis mdgradoba (an aramdgradoba)
vlindeba ZiriTadi tendenciidan (anu trendidan) faqtobrivi ganviTarebis
donis gadaxris xasiaTSi, rac saSualebas iZleva bazris ganviTarebis
mdgradoba gaizomos aproqsimaciis koeficientis maCvenebliT. gaiangariSeba
trendidan empiruli doneebis saSualo kvadratuli gadaxra:
n

(y i  yt ) 2
 y y  i
(4.16)
i t
n
sadac  yi  yt aris dinamikuri mwkrivis empiruli doneebis, saSualo

kvadratuli gadaxra trendidan;

yi  dinamikuri mwkrivis i - ri done;

yt  dinamikuri mwkrivis mosworebuli i - uri done;

n _ dinamikuri mwkrivebis i - uri doneTa ricxvi.

saSualo kvadratuli gadaxris Sefaseba saSualo donesTan
gamoxatavs dinamikuri procesebis mdgradobis dones standartizebul
masStabSi (0-dan 100%-mde):
 y y
Ka  t
 100. (4.17)
y
am maCvenebels ewodeba aproqsimaciis koeficienti.
bazris tendenciebisa da meryeobis analizi sakmaod Sromatevadi
procesia, romelic moiTxovs Sesabamisi informaciis mopovebas, dinamikuri
mwkrivebis agebas, ganawilebis mwkrivebis Sedgenas, statistikur gaanga-

161
riSebasa da statistikur gaangariSebaTa ganxorcilebas kompiuteruli
teqnologiebis gamoyenebiT.
operatiuli miznebisaTvis ukve aRniSnul meTodebTan erTad
rekomendirebulia testirebis specifikuri koniunqturuli meTodi,
romelic ar moiTxovs rTul gaangariSebebs.
koniunqturul testSi gamoiyeneba sidideTa (cvladebis) sami jgufi:
 instrumentaluri cvladebi, romlebic damokidebulia firmaTa
saqmianobaze da igegmeba TviT firmebis mier;
 molodinis cvladebi, romlebic damokidebulia ara TviT firmaze,
aramed garegan faqtorebze;
 erToblivi cvladebi, romlebic damokidebulia rogorc firmis
moqmedebaze, ise garegan faqtorebze.
sabazro koniunqturis analizis praqtikaSi farTo gamoyeneba pova
tendenciurma gamokiTxvebma, romlebic faqtobrivad eqspertuli
gamokvlevis variantia. swored mis safuZvelze muSavdeba koniunqturuli
testebi, romelic warmoadgens bazarze Camoyalibebuli cvlilebis
(ganviTarebis) tendenciis sami SesaZlo Sefasebis saSualo
ariTmetikuls:zrdis, stabilurobis da Semcirebis (Cavardnis), da
TiToeul maTgans miakuTvneben Sesabamis balebs. Sedegad miiReba bazris
ganviTarebis (cvlilebis) tendenciaTa ganzogadebuli Sefaseba.
bazris meryeobis maCvenebelTa Sefasebebi statikaSi, rogorc geog-
rafiuli, ise ekonomikuri sivrcis mixedviT, xorcieldeba variaciis
koeficientis meSveobiT Semdegi formulis safuZvelze:

V 
 100 , (4.18)
y
sadac  y aris saSualo kvadratuli gadaxra:

(y i  y ) 2  Fi
 i
n
(4.19)
F i
i

162
sadac n aris i - urerTeulTa ricxvi (sawarmo);
Fi i -uri erTeulis zomis maxasiaTebeli wona(saqonelbrunva, mosaxleobis
ricxovnoba da a.S.);

y _ i -uri sawarmos bazris parametri;
y _ parametris saSualo mniSvneloba (saSualo done), gaiangariSeba
Sewonili saSualo ariTmetikulis mixedviT:
n

Y F i i
y i
n
. (4.20)
F i
i

im SemTxvevaSi, roca SeuZlebelia Sewonvis ganxorcieleba, an roca

struqtura met-naklebad erTgvarovania, dasaSvebia mivmarToT arapiradpir
daxasiaTebas an gamoviyenoT Seuwonavi saSualoebi.
bazris mdgradoba SeiZleba agreTve Sefasdes bazris mdgomareobisa
da ganviTarebis ZiriTadi maCveneblebis mixedviT firmebis dajgufebiT.
magaliTad, konkurenti firmebis dajgufeba gayidvis moculobis an
gayidvis tempebisa da fasebis doneebis mixedviT.
bazars, rogorc erTiani ekonomikuri sivrcis ganviTarebaSi
(cvlilebaSi), aseve nebismieri lokaluri bazris ganviTarebaSi
(cvlilebaSi), SeiZleba gamovlindes gansazRvruli ganmeoradoba,
cikluroba, romelic ganpirobebulia bazris rogorc Sida TvisebebiT, ise
garegani mizezebiT (faqtorebiT).
ganasxvaveben Sidawliur, sezonur ciklurobas, da mravalwlian
ciklurobas.
bazris Sidawliuri cikluroba, Cveulebriv, sezonuri xasiaTisaa.
misi gamovlena SesaZlebelia sezonurobis indeqsebiT, meqanikuri
mosworebis meTodebiT, analizuri gantolebebiT da ufro xSirad furies
formuliT:
m
y  a 0   (a R  cos Rt  b R  sin Rt ) (4.21)
R

163
sadac t aris sidide, romelic gansazRvravs furies formulis (`garmonis~)
rigis nomers;
ao , aR da bR _ parametrebi, romlebic ganisazRvreba umcires
kvadratTa meTodiT;
R _ furies formulis rigebis (`garmonis~) ricxviT, romelic
tolia 1,2 da a.S.
sezonuri ciklebis analizis procesSi gamoiricxeba SemTxveviTi
ryevebi (am mizniT calkeuli periodisaTvis gaiangariSeba mravalwliani
saSualo) da trendi, romelic axasiaTebs ganviTarebis (cvlilebis)
ZiriTad tendencias, e.i. yvela faqtobrivi done mosworebulia.
moTxovnisa da miwodebis sezonuri ryevebi bazris ganviTarebis
(cvlilebis) mniSvnelovan komponents Seadgens. sezonuri ciklurobis Zala
SeiZleba gaizomos Cveulebrivivariaciis koeficientiT, agreTve trendis
gamoricxvis gaTvaliswinebiT (aproqsimaciis koeficientis analogiurad).
bazris cikluroba agreTve dakavSirebulia saqonelTa sasicocxlo
ciklebTan, romelic sabazro meqanizmis ganuyofeli komponentia. mocemuli
movlena Seiswavleba marketinguli gamokvlevis procesSi, magram igi
agreTve warmoadgens statistikuri modelirebisa da prognozirebis
obieqts.
saqonlis sasicocxlo ciklebis sxvadasxva etapebi _ saqonlis
bazarze gayvana, zrda, simwife da Cavardna SeiZleba modelirebul iqnes
Sesabamisi konfiguraciis mrudiT, ufro xSirad paraboloiduriT.
ciklebis cvla sabazro ekonomikis erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi
Tvisebaa. aRmavloba iwvevs gajerebas, gasaRebis krizissa da depresias,
romelic, Tavis mxriv, gadadis gamococxlebaSi da cikli meordeba
mravaljer.
amasTan, aRsaniSnavia, rom ciklebis klasifikacia, maTi
Tanmimdevroba da xangrZlivoba sxvadasxva ekonomikur pirobebSi ar aris
erTiani. ciklebi gansxvavdeba xangrZlivobiT. magaliTad, gamoiyofa
ocwliani ciklebi, romelic ganpirobebulia warmoebis sferoSi

164
kvlavwarmoebiT struqturaSi momxdari ZvrebiTa da ekonomikuri politikis
cvlilebebiT; jangleris ciklis (7-10 weli) warmoSobas ganapirobebs
fulad-sakredito faqtorebis urTierTmoqmedeba; katCinis cikli (3-5 weli)
warmoiSoba maragis brunvadobis dinamikis safuZvelze; kerZo sameurneo
ciklebi (1-dan 12 wlamde) ganpirobebulia investiciuri aqtiurobis
meryeobiT.
harvardis skolis klasikuri ciklebi Semdegnairi xasiaTisaa
(sasaqonlo bazris mixedviT):
 depresia; sasaqonlo bazris aqtiuroba sustdeba, fasebs gaaCniaT
Semcirebis tendencia;
 gamococxleba; sasaqonlo warmoebasa da vaWrobaSi iwyeba zrda;
 aRmavloba; sasaqonlo bazarze saqmiani aqtiurobis tempi maRldeba,
fasebi ganagrZoben zrdas;
 inflacia; warmoebisa da vaWrobis zrdis SeCereba, saqonlis fasebi
anelebs zrdas;
 krizisi; samrewvelo da savaWro saqmianoba kvdeba (iyineba),
kontraqtebi ara umcires 50 %-isa ar realizdeba, miwodeba ar
nazRaurdeba, izrdeba sasaqonlo maragi, fasebi ecema.
cnobili amerikeli ekonomisti k. mitCeli gamoyofs oTx koniun-
qturul cikls: gamococxleba, aRmavloba, krizi, likvidacia.
aRniSnuli ciklebi moqmedebas iSviaTad avlenen `wminda saxiT~,
TaviaTi sisrulisa da Tanmimdevrobis mixedviT.
ciklurobis gamovlenis meTodika SemdegSi mdgomareobs. kerZod,
airCeva is sabazro maCveneblebi, romlebic ufro met ryevadobas avlenen
da igeba maTi dinamikuri mwkrivebi xangrZlivi periodisaTvis. TiToeul
maTganSi gamoiricxeba trendi, romelic asaxavs zrdis an Semcirebis
erTian tendencias (`saukunovani moZraoba~), agreTve sezonuri meryeobebi.
narCeni mwkrivebi ki, romlebic asaxaven marto koniunqturul an wminda
SemTxveviT ryevebs, standartizdeba, e.i. moiyvaneba erT mniSvnelamde,
racuzrunvelyofs maT Sesadarisobas. Semdeg dgindeba maCvenebelTa

165
sinqronuloba da urTierTkavSiri(korelaciis koeficientebis
gaangariSebis meSveobiT). mravali kavSiris ganzomilebis uzrunvelyofa
miiRweva maCvenebelTa erTgvarovan klasterul jgufebad dayofiT.
grafikze klasteruli Sefasebebis gadatanam unda aCvenos ZiriTadi
sabazro procesebis cvlilebis Tanmimdevroba da koniunqturuli ciklebis
fazebis mixedviT maTi moZraoba.
maRalganviTarebuli qveynebis ekonomikur literaturaSi
damuSavebulia mravalfaqtoruli statistikuri prognozuli modeli,
romelmac ekonomikuri barometris saxelwodeba miiRo. masSi Setanilia
bazris ganviTarebis donis maxasiaTebel faqtorTa nakrebi.
bunebrivia, rom sasaqonlo bazari warmoadgens sabazro ekonomikis
Semadgenel nawils da igi Seiswavleba ara marto izolirebulad, aramed
sabazro ekonomikis sxva komponentebTan kompleqsSic. magram ekonomikuri
barometris tipis mravalfaqtoruli modelis ageba, rogorc gamocdilebam
aCvena, ar amowuravs bazris mdgomareobisa da ganviTarebis (cvlilebis)
integrirebuli daxasiaTebis problemebs mravali gauTvaliswinebeli
SemTxveviTi da gamouvleneli faqtorebis moqmedebis gamo.
amave dros, aseTi saxis modeli saSualebas iZleva kompleqsurad
Sefasdes bazris ganviTarebis kanonzomiereba, paralelurad xdeba
dinamikuri mwkrivis iseT Semadgenel nawilebad dayofa, rogoricaa: trendi
(saerTo tendencia); Sidawliuri (sezonuri); cikluri (xangrZlivi da
swrafi) da danarCeni (SemTxveviTi) ryevebi.

4.7. moTxovnisa da miwodebis elastikurobis gazomvis

statistikuri meTodebi
moTxovnisa da miwodebis elastikuroba warmoadgens specifikur
sabazro movlenas da ganpirobebulia bazris kanonis moqmedebiT.
moTxovnis elastikurobis arsi mdgomareobs imaSi, rom igi
gansakuTrebiT moqnili da cvalebadia sxvadasxva socialur-ekonomikuri

166
faqtorebis, gansakuTrebiT fasebisa da fuladi Semosavlebis zemoqmedebis
gamo.
analogiuri Tvisebebis matarebelia sasaqonlo miwodeba, romelic
mgrZnobiared reagirebs fasebis cvlilebebze.
garegani faqtorebis zegavlenaze miwodebisa da moTxovnis
mgrZnobiarobis fenomens swavlulma ekonomistebma jer kidev XIX
saukuneSi miaqcies yuradReba. kerZod, frangma mecnierma o. kurnom gamoTqva
mosazreba, rom garkveuli azriT moTxovna warmoadgens fasebis funqcias.
es idea ganaviTara ingliselma mkvlevarma a. marSalma, romelmac igi
formulis saxiT Camoayaliba:
D=f(p)
(4.22)

sadac D aris moTxovna;

P _ fasi.
magram mkvlevrebma maSinve miaqcies yuradReba imas, rom moTxovna
calkeul saqonelze damokidebulia ara marto am saqonlis fasze, aramed
sxva saqonlis fasebzec. XIX saukunis 80-ian wlebSi Sveicarielma
swavlulma ekonomistma l. valram kurnos pirveladi gantolebis
safuZvelze wamoayena moTxovnis elastikurobis Tavisi varianti, romelic
gamoxata Semdegi formuliT:
d x  f (Px , P1 , P2 , P3 ,...Pn ) (4.23)
sadac d x aris moTxovna X saqonelze;

Px _ X saqonelis fasi;
P1 ...Pn _ danarCeni saqonlis fasebi.
aRsaniSnavia, rom am ideaze dafuZnebuli jvaredini elastikurobis
Teoria kurno-marSalis Sexedulebebi SemdgomSi ganviTarebuli iqna sxva
mkvlevrebis mier, romlebmac elastikurobis cnebaSi Semoitanes
Semosavlis faqtori.

167
 `ekonomiksis~ avtori p. samuelsoni moTxovnis elastikurobas
fasebze damokidebulebiT ganixilavs, rogorc Sesyiduli saqonlis
raodenobis reaqciis dones sabazro fasebis meryeobaze.
moTxovnisa da miwodebis elastikuroba warmoadgens reagirebas
bazarze momxdar socialur-ekonomikuri pirobebis cvlilebaze.
elastikurobis zoma statistikurma mecnierebam gansazRvra iseTi
raodenobiTi maCveneblebiT, rogoricaa: elastikurobis koeficienti.
elastikurobis koeficianti aris erTi niSnis (Sedegobrivi)
procentuli cvlileba meore niSnis (faqtoruli) erTi procentiT
gadidebisas (cvlilebisas).
a. marSalma gamoiyvana elastikurobis empiruli koeficientis
formula Semdegi saxiT:
y x
  (4.24)
x y

sadac y aris moTxovnis mateba

x _ faqtoruli niSnis mateba;
y _ moTxovnis sabazo maCvenebeli;
x _ faqtoruli niSnis sabazo maCvenebeli.
zogjer arniSnuli formula gamoisaxeba SefardebaTa warmoebulis
saxiT, zogjer ki _ procentuli cvlilebebis saxiT:
y y y x
 : ,   , (4.25)
x x y x
rodesac  1 vlindeba infraelastikurobis movlena, saqoneli
iTvleba mcireelastikur an araelastikur saqonlad; rodesac  1
aRiniSneba ultraelastikurobis movlena da saqoneli warmoadgens
elastikurs an Zlier elastikurs; rodesac  1, maSin saqoneli
sustelastikuria (e. w. unitaruli moTxovna), am SemTxvevaSi, rogorc wesi,
fasebis Semcirebas ar mosdevs komerciuli efeqti (fuladi amonagebis
zrda).

168
 elastikurobis koeficientis dadebiTi mniSvneloba niSnavs, rom
faqtoruli niSnis gadidebisas moTxovna izrdeba, e.i. kavSiri pirdapiria
(aseTi damokidebuleba aRiniSneba Semosavlebze damokidebulebiT);
uaryofiTi mniSvneloba ki niSnavs, rom faqtoruli niSnis gadidebisas
moTxovna mcirdeba, e. i. kavSiri arapirdapiria (aseTi damokidebuleba
aRiniSneba fasebze damokidebulebiT (igulisxmeba fasebis zrda).
amasTan, mxedvelobaSi unda iqnes miRebuli, rom arsebobs zogierTi
saqoneli, romelic sxvanairad reagirebs fasebisa da Semosavlebis
cvlilebaze. magaliTad, Semosavlebis zrda iwvevs moTxovnis Semcirebas
dabali samomxmareblo Tvisebebis (xarisxis) saqonelze.
praqtikul gaangariSebebSi elastikurobis koeficienti SeiZleba
gamoiTvalos dinamikaSi da statikaSi, e. i. asaxavs moTxovnis cvlilebas an
droSi, an erTobliobis romelime sxva erTeulTan SedarebiT (magaliTad,
moTxovna sxvadasxva samomxmareblo jgufebis, sxvadasxva regionebis da a.
S.). pirvel SemTxvevaSi formula transformirdeba Semdegnairad:
y1  y 0 x1  x0
 :  Txmat : Tymat , (4.26)
y0 x0

sadac y 0 da y1 aris saSedego niSani (moTxovna) Sesabamisad sabaziso da

mimdinare periodSi;
x 0 da x 1 _ faqtoruli niSani Sesabamisad sabaziso da mimdinare
periodSi.
statikaSi (Cveulebriv dajgufebis monacemebiT) es formula
Semdegnairad gamoiyureba (calkeuli i-uri jgufis mixedviT):
y n  y n1 y n 1
 : , (4.27)
xn  xn1 xn1

sadac y n aris moTxovna dasaxasiaTebel jgufSi;

y n 1 _ moTxovna winamorbed jgufSi;

xn , x n 1 , _ faqtoruli niSnebi n-ur jgufSi, winamorbed n-1-ur
jgufSi.

169
 yvela jgufis mixedviT elastikurobis saerTo koeficienti
gaiangariSeba rogorc Sewonili saSualo ariTmetikuli:
n

 i Wi
 i
n
, (4.28)
W i
i

sadac  aris elastikurobis saSualo koeficieti;

 i _ elastikurobis jgufuri koeficienti;
Wi _ calkeulii-uri jgufebis wonebi;
n _ jgufebis ricxvi (pirvelis garda).

elastikurobis jgufuri koeficientis gaangariSebas didi

mniSvneloba aqvs, radgan sxvadasxva socialur-ekonomikuri jgufebis
moTxovna sxvadasxvanairad reagirebs erTsa da imave faqtorze. kerZod,
mcire Semosavliani momxmareblebisaTvis fasebis 1%-iT zrda iwvevs
moTxovnis mniSvnelovan Semcirebas, maSin, roca maRalSemosavlianma
ojaxebma SeiZleba saerTod ar gaakeTon reagireba fasebis aseT zrdaze.
jer kidev gasuli saukunis 80-ian wlebSi germaneli ekonomistis e.
engelis mier dadgenil iqna, rom ojaxis Semosavlebis zrdasTan erTad,
danaxarjebi kvebaze izrdeba absoluturad, magram mcirdeba SefardebiTad.
analogiuri kanoni, romelic dakavSirebulia sacxovreblis
danaxarjebis elastikurobasTan, formulirebul iqna XIX saukunis meore
naxevarSi aseve germaneli ekonomistis a. Svabes mier, romlis Tanaxmadac,
ojaxis Semosavlebis zrdasTan erTad misi danaxarjebic sacxovrebelze
izrdeba absoluturad, magram mcirdeba SefardebiTad.
moTxovnaze fasis gavlenis veqtori ukudamokidebulebaSi imyofeba
Semosavlis gavlenis veqtorTan. magram am wess ramdenime gamonaklisi aqvs.
jer erTi, elastikurobaze moqmedebs saqonlis sargeblianobis xarisxi
(done), anu misi adgili moTxovnaTa ierarqiaSi. rac ufro mniSvnelovania
saqoneli moxmarebisTvis, miT ufro naklebelastikuria igi.

170
 Tumca arsebobs movlena, wodebuli jifenis paradoqsad: ramdenad
ufro Zviria puri, miT ufro yiduloben mas. fasebis zrda, pirvel rigSi,
amcirebs moTxovnas maRalxarisxovan, magram ZviradRirebul im saqonelze,
romelic moTxovnilebaTa pirveli jgufis saqonelTa ricxvSi ar imyofeba.
fasebis zrdisas mas yiduloben naklebad, vidre es elastikurobis
moTxovniTaa gaTvaliswinebuli, xolo mis magivrad yiduloben pirveli
moTxovnilebis saqonels. es niSnavs, rom moTxovnaSi xdeba erTi saqonlis
Senacvleba meore saqonliT.
Senacvlebis efeqti vlindeba imaSi, rom fasebis Semcireba mas xdis
ufro maRal, xolo fasebis zrda _ ufro dabal konkurentunarians. amas
mivyavarT iqamde, rom, pirvel SemTxvevaSi, igi aviwrovebs sxva saqonels,
xolo meore SemTxvevaSi, TviTon ganicdis Seviwrovebas (gamodevnas) ufro
iafi saqonlisagan.
meore mxriv, vlindeba e. w. vebelenis paradoqsis moqmedeba. am dros
fufunebis sagnebi iyideba ara maTi samomxmareblo Tvisebebis, aramed maTi
socialuri mniSvnelobis gamo, kerZod, prestiJulobis, modis da a.S.
ufro metic, cnobili amerikeli ekonomistisa da sociologis
maslous moTxovnaTa ierarqiaSi TviTdamkvidrebisa da TviTgamoxatulebis
moTxovnileba, mis mier SemoTavazebuli Teoriis mixedviT, moTxovnilebis
motivaciis piramidis mwvervalze imyofeba. es agreTve dasturdeba
samamulo praqtikiT. cnobili ekonomisti r. badueni Tvlis, rom jifenis
efeqti warmoSobilia siRaribiT, xolo vebelenis efeqti _ simdidriT.
inflaciis pirobebSi ufro saimedod iTvleba moTxovnis
elastikurobis modelireba fasebis SefardebiT donesTan
damokidebulebiT, romelic gamosaxulia saSualo SemosavliT:

P
D  f , (4.29)
R
sadac D aris moTxovna
P _ fasi;
R _ momxmarebelTa saSualo Semosavali.

171
 moTxovnis struqturis elastikuroba, fasismieri faqtoris
zemoqmedebiT, erTi saqonlis mier meoris Seviwroeba atarebsjvaredini
elastiurobis saxelwodebas.
arsebobs misi gamovlenis sxvadsxva meTodi. ufro gavrcelebulia
jvaredini elastikurobis Semdegi empiruli koeficienti:
q x Px
 x,y  : , (4.30)
q y Py

sadac  x , y aris moTxovnis jvaredini elastikurobis koeficienti;

q x _ moTxovnis mateba x saqonelze;

q y _ moTxovnis mateba y saqonelze;

Py _ y saqonlis fasi;

Px _ x saqonlis fasi

elastikurobis empiruli koeficientis erT-erT naklovanebas

warmoadgens is, rom am dros xorcieldeba moTxovnaze moqmedi yvela
faqtoris ignorireba da iTvleba, rom moTxovnis cvlileba
ganpirobebulia mxolod erTi faqtoruli niSniT. maSin, rodesac
praqtikulad moTxovnis cvlilebaze erTdroulad mravali faqtori axdens
gavlenas. amasTan, moTxovnisa da sabazro sxva faqtorebis kavSiri, rogorc
wesi, arsebobs ara funqciuri, aramed albaTur-korelaciuri.

elastikurobis koeficientis maCvenebelTa gaangariSeba mWidrod

unda iyos dakavSirebuli urTierTkavSirebis modelirebasTan regresiis
wyviladi da mravalfaqtorul gantolebaTa meSveobiT. am SemTxvevaSi
marSalis elastikurobis empiruli koeficientis formula gardaiqmneba
alen-boulis elastikurobis Teoriul koeficientad. moTxovnisa da
fasebis urTierTkavSirze masobrivi monacemebis gamokvlevisas
elastikurobis koeficienti iRebs Semdeg saxes:
y x
 lim  , (4.31)
x 0 x y

172
 lim y dx
xolo radgan  aris  f (x) , e.i. X mixedviT y pirveli
x  0 x dy

warmoebuli funqcia, romelic gamoisaxeba simboliT y  , maSin

elastikurobis Teoriuli koeficienti iRebs saxes:
x
 y   , (4.32)
yx

sadac y x _saSedego niSnis gaTanabrebuli mniSvneloba, e.i. damokidebulebis

gamoxatuleba:
Y  f (x)

y , _Sesabamisi funqciispirveli warmoebuli.

mocemuli formula saSualebas iZleva ganisazRvros elastikuroba
mrudis calkeuli wertilisaTvis da misi ekonomikuri interpretacia
momxmarebelTa TiToeuli jgufis moTxovnis elastikurobis daxasiaTebaSi
mdgomareobs.
Sedegobrivi da faqtoruli niSnebis saSualo mniSvnelobis
aRebisas, gansazRvruli iqneba saSualo elastikuroba. amasTan, praqtikaSi
gaTanabrebuli Sedegobrivi niSnis saSualo sidides ( yx ) Cveulebriv
cvlian Sedegobrivi niSnis empiruli mniSvnelobis saSualo sididiT ( y ),
ramdenadac yx da y mniSvnelobaTa jamebi unda daemTxves erTmaneTs. maSin
elastikurobis saSualo koeficientis formula miiRebs Semdeg saxes:
x
 y  (4.33)
y
praqtikaSi faqtobrivad myidvelobiT moTxovnaze erTdroulad
mravali faqtori moqmedebs da TiToeuli maTgani ganapirobebs moTxovnis
elastikurobis gansazRvras. amitom aucilebelia ganisazRvros moTxovnis
elastikurobis `wminda~ koeficientebi, romlebic ganTavisuflebuli iqneba
danarCeni faqtorebis gavlenisagan. am mizniT igeba regresiis
mravalfaqtoruli gantoleba, ufro xSirad ki wrfivi formis:
y x1 ...xn  a  b1 x1  b2 x2  ...  bn xn , (4.34)

sadac b1 aris regresiis koeficienti;

173
x1 _ faqtorebi.
Teoriulad elastikurobis `wminda~ koeficientebi gaiangariSeba
Semdegi formuliT:
xi
 i  bi 
, (4.35)
y
moTxovnis damokidebuleba, rogorc wesi, arawrfivia. mravali
arawrfivi mravalfaqtoruli funqciebis an Sereuli modelebis gamoyeneba
ki sakmaod rTulia,magram regresiis gantolebis wrfivi formidan advilad
SeiZleba misvla xarisxobriv funqciasTan da imis damtkicebiT, rom
moTxovnis mudmivi elastikurobis kanoni SesaZlebelia gamoisaxos Semdegi
tipis gantolebiT:
y x  ax 2 , (4.36)
maSin SeiZleba aigos multiplikaciuri xarisxobrivi mravalfaqtoruli
modeli:P

y x1 ...x n  ax 1b1  x b22  ...  x bnn . (4.37)

am SemTxvevaSi elastikurobis koeficienti udris regresiis

koeficients:
i  bi .
moTxovnis elastikuroba fasebze damokidebulebiT SeiZleba
ganisazRvros ara marto statistikuri aRricxvis monacemebis safuZvelze,
aramed momxmarebelTa gamokiTxvis safuZvelzec. arsebobs myidvelTa
reaqciis gamovlinebis ramdenime xerxi im SemoTavazebuli fasebis doneze,
romlebic asaxaven moTxovnis elastikurobas.
pirveli: eqspertTa jgufs esmeba kiTxva im saqonlis raodenobis
Sesaxeb, romelic SeiZleba SeZenil iqnes mocemul fasSi. kiTxva meordeba
zRvruli fasebis sxvadasxva doneebisaTvis. Sedegi asaxavs moTxovnas
Sesabamisi calkeuli fasebis mixedviT;
meore: gamoikiTxeba momxmarebelTa garkveuli raodenoba, calkeuli
respodenti asaxelebs zRvrul fass (doneTa mwkrivebi SeiZleba momzaddes
winaswar, maSin respodenti uTiTebs Sesabamis dones), bolos aigeba

174
momxmarebelTa ganawilebis mwkrivi fasebis doneebis mixedviT (sixSire _
adamianTa raodenoba, romlebmac daasaxeles erTi da igive fasi);
mesame: es xerxi meorisagan gansxvavdeba imiT, rom respodenti
uCvenebs ara marto erTeuli saqonlis SeZenis fass, aramed im fassac,
romliTac igi SeiZenda am saqonlis or an met erTeuls.
miRebuli calkeuli ganawilebis mixedviT igeba regresiuli modeli
da gaiangariSeba elastikurobis koeficienti.
nebismier saqonelze moTxovnis elastikurobis koeficientis
gaangariSebis meTodisa da xerxis optimaluri arCeva komerciul firmaSi
unda moxdes mocemuli firmisa da bazris specifikuri pirobebisa da
arsebuli situaciis gaTvaliswinebis safuZvelze.

4.8. sabazro koniunqturis statistikuri prognozirebis meTodebi

sabazro koniunqturis analizis mizani ar amoiwureba bazarze

faqtobrivad Seqmnili situaciis fiqsirebiTa da sabazro procesebis
mizez-Sedegobrivi kavSirebis gamovleniT. man agreTve unda uzrunvelyos
bazris ganviTarebis (cvlilebis), pirvel rigSi, moTxovnisa da miwodebis
dasabuTebuli prognozireba.
moTxovnisa da miwodebis prognozireba sabazro procesebis mizez-
Sedegobrivi kavSirebis, tendenciebisa da kanonzomierebaTa Seswavlis
safuZvelze momaval periodSi maTi ganviTarebis (cvlilebis) mecnierulad
dasabuTebuli ganWvretaa.
prognozis gaangariSebis SedarebiT martiv meTods eqstrapolacia
warmoadgens, e. i. rodesac xdeba warsulSi Camoyalibebuli tendenciebis
momaval periodSi gavrceleba, magram am meTods sakmaod seriozuli
naklovanebebi (SezRudvebi) gaaCnia. is ver iTvaliswinebs sabazro
situaciis ganmsazRvrel bazarze mosalodneli cvlilebebis albaTobas.

175
 amasTan, isic unda aRiniSnos, rom prognozirebis sxva meTodebic
aucileblad iyenebs warsulSi miRebul informacias momavlis winaswar
ganWvretisaTvis. miuxedavad imisa, rom firmis garegani garemo, maT Soris
bazari, sul ufro amoucnobia, sabazro procesebs mainc axasiaTebs
garkveuli inerciuloba da SedarebiT mokle periodSi ZiriTad
tendenciebs inarCunebs. amis gaTvaliswinebiT eqstrapolaciis meTodis
gamoyeneba SedarebiT ukeTes Sedegs iZleva moklevadian prognozirebaSi,
gansakuTrebiT ki bazris im segmentebSi, sadac SedarebiT naklebi
intensivobiTa da siZlieriT warmoiSoba miwodebaze da moTxovnaze moqmedi
faqtorebi.
amave dros, farTo da grZelvadiani prognozireba aucileblad
moiTxovs im mniSvnelovani faqtorebis warmoSobis albaTobis
gaTvaliswinebas, romelic gamoiwvevs sabazro situaciis cvlilebebs. imis
gamo, rom TiTqmis SeuZlebelia sabazro faqtorebis warmoSobis drois,
siZlierisa da sxva maxasiaTeblebis zusti gansazRvra, dasaSvebadaa
miCneuli prognozirebis mravalvariantuloba.
sxvadasxva variantebis SemuSavebisas gaiTvaliswineba sabazro
pirobebis sxvadasxvanairi cvlileba da mis safuZvelze muSavdeba bazris
ganviTarebis (cvlilebebis) is gansazRvruli mimarTulebebi (orientirebi),
romelic unda iqnes miRweuli garkveuli periodisaTvis. amasTan, sabazro
procesebis prognozirebisas aucileblad gasaTvaliswinebelia
kompleqsurobis principi, romelic gulisxmobs bazris yvela ZiriTadi
parametrebis erTdroulad prognozirebas, radgan isini mWidro
urTierTkavSirSi imyofebian da erTmaneTs ganapirobeben.
prognozi Tavisi momcvelobis mixedviT SeiZleba iyos globaluri,
regionuli da lokaluri, rac imas niSnavs, rom bazarma SeiZleba moicvas
mTeli mocemuli qveyana da sazRvargareTis erTi an ramdenime saxelmwifo,
mocemuli qveynis romelime lokaluri regioni, an mocemuli lokaluri
regionis nawili, romelzedac romelime firmaa gasuli.

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 prognozma SeiZleba agreTve moicvas romelime saxeobis
funqcionaluri bazari, rogoricaa: samomxmareblo saqonlis bazari,
firmaTa (sawarmoTa) bazari (samrewvelo daniSnulebis saqonlis bazari,
romelic daniSnulia sxva saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebisaTvis, anu
warmoebis saSualebaTa bazari) da sxv.
sabazro koniunqturis prognozi agreTve gansxvavdeba winaswar-
Wvretis vadebis mixedviT. amis Sesabamisad, prognozi pirobiTad iyofa
Semdeg saxeobebad:
 operatiuli prognozi, romlis vadaa dekada, Tve, kvartali, naxevari
weli;
 moklevadiani prognozi, romelic grZeldeba erTi wlis manZilze;
 saSualovadiani prognozi, romelic moicavs 1-dan 5 wlamde periods;
 xangrZlivvadiani prognozi, anu perspeqtiuli prognozi, moicavs 5
welze met periods.
prognozi SeiZleba iyos:
 wertilovani, rodesac prognozirebis Sedegi gamoixateba erTi donis
saxiT;
 intervaluri da mravalfaqtoruli, rodesac Sedegi warmodgenilia
intervalis an varirebadi sididis saxiT.
prognozis sizuste damokidebulia:
 sabazro procesebisa da faqtorebis amsaxveli im informaciis
utyuarobasa da sisruleze, romelic gansazRvravs bazris
cvlilebebs da ZiriTad tendenciebs;
 bazris mdgomareobisa da qveynis ekonomikis doneze (radgan rac
ufro mdgradia bazari da Zlieria ekonomika, miT ufro zusti
prognozis gakeTebaa SesaZlebeli);
 saprognozo modelis adekvaturobaze (anu modelis saxeobis sworad
SerCevaze);
 prognozis gakeTebis teqnikuri SeiaraRebis doneze, programis
xarisxze, algoriTmebze da a.S.).

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 arsebobs prognozirebis sxvadasxva xerxi da meTodi, romelTagan
moTxovnisa da miwodebis prognozirebaSi ufro xSirad gamoiyeneba Semdegi:
 analogiuri modelebi, rodesac prognozis gasakeTeblad gamoiyeneba
mocemul qveyanaSi an regionSi ukve arsebuli sabazro situaciis
maCveneblebi;
 imitaciuri modelebi, rodesac realuri monacemebis magivrad
gamoiyeneba specialur programiTa da egm-is gamoyenebiT agebuli
modelebi. imitacia aris realuri sistemis adgilas modelis
dayenebis praqtikuli xerxi. am modelze eqsperimentiT SeiZleba
dadgindes, Tu rogor reagirebas moaxdens igi gansazRvrul sabazro
cvlilebebze an mdgomareobaze. es maSin, roca realobaSi amis
gakeTeba SeuZlebelia;
 normatiuli, anu racionalizebuli prognozuli gaangariSebebi, roca
prognozi keTdeba racionaluri biujetidan an moxmarebis
dasabuTebuli normebidan gamomdinare;
 prognozireba eqspertuli Sefasebebis safuZvelze;
 eqstrapolaciis meTodebi: dinamikuri mwkrivebis mosworebis
teqnikuri da meqanikuri xerxebi, trenduli modelis ageba;
 statistikuri modelirebis meTodebi (regresiis mravalfaqtoruli
gantolebebi);
 prognozireba elastikurobis koeficientebis gamoyenebis safuZvelze.
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis saxeobebis mixedviT myidvelobiTi
moTxovnis statistikuri gamokvlevebisa da prognozirebis praqtikaSi
gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva tipis maTematikuri modelebi, romelTa SerCevisas
gaiTvaliswineba mocemuli bazris cvlilebebis (ganviTarebis) xasiaTTan da
kanonzomierebebTan misi Sesabamisoba.
funqciaTa SerCeva damokidebulia sabazro koniunqturis winaswari
gamokvlevis Sedegebsa da konkretul pirobebze, saqonlis saxeobaze,
bazris segmentis Taviseburebebze da a. S.

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 msoflio praqtikaSi farTod gamoiyeneba torkvistis formula, 1-li
gamoiyeneba kvebis produqtebze moTxovnis modelirebisaTvis, xolo me-3
fufunebis sagnebze moTxovnis modelirebisaTvis.
moTxovna mTel rig arasasursaTo saqonelze ganisazRvreba
xarisxiani funqciiT, xolo moTxovnis saerTo kanonzomierebani xSirad
gamoisaxeba gompercis mrudiT. moTxovnaze Semosavlis gavlenis
Seswavlisas SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes logistikuri mrudi
(sigmoidaluri mrudi). moTxovnis zrdis Caqrobis procesi maRali
Semosavlis mqone mosaxleobis jgufebSi gadasvlisas warmatebiT
gamoisaxeba naxevarlogariTmuli funqciiT.
xSirad sabazro situaciis prognozi keTdeba mravalfaqtoruli
modelirebis meSveobiT, am dros gauTvaliswinebeli faqtorebis
akumulirebisa da avtoregresiis aRmosafxvrelad dinamikuri mwkrivebis
safuZvelze agebul modelSi SeyavT drois faqtori:
~
y x1 ...xnt  a  b1 x1  b2 x2  ...  bn1t. (4.38)

aRniSnul SemTxvevebSi siZneles warmoadgens is, rom moTxovnis

ganviTareba (cvlileba) iSviaTadaa wrfivi (sworxazovani). xSirad misi
kanonzomierebani gamoixateba mrudwiruli (mrudxazovani) fuqnciebiT,
Tumca Sereuli mravalfaqtoruli modelis ageba erTob rTulia. imisaTvis,
rom Tavidan aviciloT modelis wrfiuloba, xdeba misi yvela wevris
galogariTmeba, e. i. igeba mravalfaqtoruli gantoleba xarisxiani an
maCvenebliani funqciis mixedviT:
~
y x1 ...x n  ab1x1  b 2x 2 ...b nx n , (4.39)
~
y x1 ...x n  ax 1b1  x b22 ...x bnn ,

prognozirebis mniSvnelovan moments warmoadgens prognozis

saimedoobisA da sizustis Semowmeba. bolo etapze gaiangariSeba prognozis
Secdoba, anu misi faqtobrivi donidan gadaxra. prognozis xarisxis
sazomad gamoiyeneba maCvenebeli:

179
 p
C , (4.40)
pq

sadac p aris damtkicebuli prognozirebis raodenoba, e. i. sworad

gakeTebuli prognozirebis raodenoba;
q _ daumtkicebeli prognozirebis raodenoba.
maSasadame, am wesis Tanaxmad, prognozis saimedoobis, anu
verifikaciis Semowmeba xdeba misi faqtobriv SedegebTan Sedarebis
meSveobiT.
magram Zalian mniSvnelovania Semowmeba ganxorcieldes ara
saprognozo vadis damTavrebis Semdeg, aramed TviT prognozis Sedgenis
procesSi.
am mizniT gamoiyeneba inversiuli verifikaciis meTodi, romelic
xorcieldeba retrospeqtuli prognozirebis gziT. es niSnavs, rom
prognozuli modelis sisworis Semowmeba xdeba ukve gasuli periodis
prognozis SedgeniT da misi faqtobriv monacemebTan SedarebiT.
aseve arsebobs teilis meTodi, romelic prognozis Secdomis
Sefasebis saSualebas saprognozo vadis dadgomamde iZleva. gaangariSeba
xdeba Semdegi formuliT:
n

 (P t  At )2
V t
, (4.41)
At

sadac Pt da At aris Sesabamisad koniunqturis Sesaswavli maCveneblis

tendenciis (cvlilebis) prognozuli da faqtobrivi mniSvnelobebi;
V _ prognozis saimedoobis maCvenebeli.
Tu V=0, maSin prognozi absoluturad zustia. Tu V=1, niSnavs, rom
prognozi axloa ubralo eqstrapolaciasTan, Tu V>1-ze, maSin prognozi
iZleva uares Sedegs, vidre mocemuli movlenis ucvlelad datoveba.

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 Tema 5. safinanso-sabanko statistika
saleqcio sakiTxebi:

- monetaruli da sabanko statistikis arsi da amocanebi; fuladi

agregatebi da maTi statistikuri Seswavlis meTodebi;
- fiskaluri statistikis arsi da amocanebi sabiujeto – sagadasaxado
Semosavlebisa da danaxarjebis daegSi; biujetis proficitisa da
deficitis gamovlenis meTodebi;
- kreditis tatistikuri Seswavlis maCveneblebi;
- sadazRvevo miznebis statistikuri maCveneblebi;
- inflaciis cneba da maTi gaangariSebis meTodebi; deflatoris
koeficientebi da maTi gaangariSebis statistikuri xerxebi;
- safinanso birJis da fasiani qaRaldebis statistikuri maCveneblebi;
- savaluto bazris statistikuri maCveneblebi; savaluto kursis saxeebi;
- valutis gacvliTi kursis statistikuri maCveneblebi.

5.1. ganmartebebi da mokle meToduri miTiTebebi

5.1. saxelmwifo finansebis statistika

saxelmwifo finansebis statistika iTvaliswinebs saxelmwifo

biujetis Semosulobebisa da gadasaxdelebis analizs, pirvel rigSi
Semosulobebisa da gadasaxdelebis struqturis gansazRvras. amisaTvis
iyenebs struqturis SefardebiT sidides da Semosulobebis (an
gadasaxdelebis) TiToeuli muxlisaTvis gansazRvravs xvedriT wils.
kerZod, yoveli muxlis moculoba procentulad unda SevafardoT
Semosavlebis (an xarjebis) saerTo moculobasTan. garda amisa, saWiroa
biujetis Sesrulebis xarisxis analizi, rogorc biujetis saerTo
moculobis aseve Semosulobebisa da gadasaxdelebis calkeuli muxlebis
mixedviT. amisaTvis ki gamoiyeneba gegmis Sesrulebis SefardebiTi sidide,
romlis drosac faqtiuri Sesrulebis procentuli SefardebiT biujetis
moculobasTan vRebulobT Sesrulebis xarisxis maCvenebels.

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 saxelmwifo biujetis statistikuri Seswavla iTvaliswinebs aseve
biujetis Semosulobebisa da gadasaxdelebis dinamikur analizs.
amisaTvis yvelaze martivi saSualeba aris dinamikis SefardebiTi
sidideebis gaangariSeba.
saxelmwifo biujetis statistikuri analizis dros metad
mniSvnelovan sakiTxs warmoadgens Semosavlebis yvelaze mTavari muxlebis
– sagadasaxado Semosavlebis statistikuri analizi, romlisaTvisac
saWiroa gadasaxadebis indeqsebis gamoyeneba.
radgan sagadasaxado Semosavlebis moculoba gadasaxadebis
saprocento ganakveTebisa da sagadasaxado Semosavlebis sididis namravlis
tolia, e. i. H  CB , amitom sagadasaxado Semosavlebis indeqsi saprocento
ganakveTebisa da sagadasaxado Semosavlebis sididis indeqsTa namravliT
miiReba, e. i.:
I H  IC I B . (5.1)

C1 B
Tavis mxriv, I C  , xolo I B  1 ,
C0 B0

sadac, C1 da C0 aris Sesabamisad mimdinare da sabaziso periodSi

sagadasaxado ganakveTi, xolo B1 da B0 saangariSo da sabaziso
periodebSi sagadasaxado Semosavlebis sidide.
saqarTvelos saxelmwifo finansebi aRiricxeba sabiujeto sistemis
ZiriTadi doneebis – saxelmwifo biujetis, avtonomiuri respublikebisa da
adgilobrivi biujetebis mixedviT. saxelmwifo biujeti – saqarTvelos
parlamentis mier damtkicebuli saqarTvelos centraluri xelisuflebis
Semosulobebis, agreTve misi funqciebisa da valdebulebebis Sesrulebis
mizniT gasawevi gadasaxdelebisa da naSTis cvlilebis erTobliobaa.
biujetis Semosulobebia: Semosavlebi – gadasaxadebi, grantebi, sxva
Semosavlebi, arafinansuri aqtivebi (arafinansuri aqtivebiT operaciebidan
miRebuli saxsrebi), finansuri aqtivebi (finansuri aqtivebiT operaciebidan

182
miRebuli saxsrebi, naSTis gamoyenebis garda), valdebulebebi
(valdebulebebis aRebis Sedegad miRebuli saxsrebi).

biujetis gadasaxdelebia saangariSo periodSi biujetidan gasacemi

fuladi saxsrebis erToblioba. maT miekuTvneba: xarjebi, arafinansuri
aqtivebi (arafinansuri aqtivebiT operaciebze mimarTuli saxsrebi),
finansuri aqtivebi (finansuri aqtivebiT operaciebze mimarTuli saxsrebi,
naSTis dagrovebis garda), valdebulebebi (valdebulebebis ZiriTadi
nawilis dafarvaze mimarTuli saxsrebi).

biujetis proficiti da deficiti:

1. biujetis Semosavlebsa da xarjebs Soris sxvaoba aris biujetis

saoperacio saldo, xolo saoperacio saldosa da arafinansuri aqtivebis
cvlilebas Soris sxvaoba – biujetis mTliani saldo;
2. dadebiTi mTliani saldo aris biujetis proficiti, xolo uaryofiTi
mTliani saldo – deficiti.
saxelmwifo biujetis statistikis ZiriTad amocanebs warmoadgens:

• biujetis Semosavlebisa da xarjebis maCveneblebis dadgena;

• saxelmwifo biujetis Semosavlebis struqturis gansazRvra;

• saxelmwifo biujetis xarjebis struqturis gansazRvra;

• biujetis deficitis dafinansebis wyaroebis an proficitis gamoyenebis

mimarTulebebis dadgena;

• sagareo saxelmwifo valis moculobis dadgena.

statistika saxelmwifo biujets axasiaTebs sxvadasxva absoluturi

da SefardebiTi maCveneblebiT.
saxelmwifo biujetis statistikis absolutur maCveneblebs miekuTvneba:
 Semosavlebi (grantebis CaTvliT);
 xarjebi;

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  Semosavlebis mateba xarjebze (saoperacio saldo);
 arafinansuri aqtivebis cvlileba;
 MmTliani saldo (deficiti/ proficiti);
 finansuri aqtivebis cvlileba;
 valdebulebebis cvlileba;
saqarTvelos sagadasaxado kodeqsis Tanaxmad, biujetis saSemosavlo
nawilis formirebis ZiriTad wyaroebad iTvleba:
 saSemosavlo gadasaxadi;
 mogebis gadasaxadi;
 damatebuli Rirebulis gadasaxadi;
 aqcizi;
 qonebis gadasaxadi;
 importis gadasaxadi.
biujetis xarjviTi nawili iTvaliswinebs iseTi saxis sferoebis da-
finansebas, rogoricaa:
• saerTo daniSnulebis saxelmwifo momsaxureba;
• Tavdacva;
• sazogadoebrivi wesrigi da uSiSroeba;
• ekonomikuri saqmianoba (soflis meurneoba, transporti da a.S.);
• garemos dacva;
• sabinao-komunaluri meurneoba;
• janmrTelobis dacva;
• dasveneba, kultura da religia;
• ganaTleba;
• socialuri dacva da sxv.
grantebi - es aris usasyidlo aradabrunebadi, arasavaldebulo
Semosavlebi, romelsac aqvs araregularuli, erTdrouli, nebayoflobiTi
xasiaTis subvenciisa da reparaciis saxe. mocemuli finansuri nakadi
Semoedineba saxelmwifo marTvis dawesebulebebidan an saerTaSoriso
organizaciebidan.

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 biujetis deficitis dafinansebis wyaroebia:

saSinao dafinanseba:
• saxelmwifo fasiani qaRaldebis gamoSveba (garda aqciebisa);
• finansuri aqtivebiT operaciebidan miRebuli saxsrebi;
sagareo dafinanseba:
• saxelmwifo fasiani qaRaldebis gamoSveba (garda aqciebisa);
• saerTaSoriso safinanso organizaciebis krediti;
• ucxouri saxelmwifoebis mTavrobis mier saqarTvelosadmi gamoyofili
kreditebi;
• sxva saxis dafinanseba.
drois garkveul manZilze biujetis deficitis dasafinanseblad
moziduli saxelmwifo valdebulebebis erToblioba warmoadgens
saxelmwifo vals. saxelmwifo vali warmoadgens xelisuflebis organoebis
valdebulebas iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis, ucxo saxelmwifoebis,
saerTaSoriso organizaciebis da saerTaSoriso samarTlis sxva subieqte-
bis mimarT. rogorc ukve aRvniSneT, sagareo valis statistikis amocanebia
misi zomisa da masStabebis, struqturisa da dinamikis dadgena.
yvela donis biujetis Sesrulebis analizi xorcieldeba: biujetis
ZiriTadi maCveneblebis (Semosavlebi, xarjebi da a. S.) mixedviT gegmis
Sesrulebis SefardebiTi maCveneblebis safuZvelze.
Aarsebobs biujetis sxvadasxva saxeebi maT Soris naerTi, saxelmwifo
da teritoriuli erTeulebis biujeti. ESegviZlia gamovyoT biujetis
Semosavlebis 3 wyaro: gadasaxadebi grantebi da sxva Semosavlebi.
saxelmwifos fiskaluri ekonomikuri politikis gatarebis ZiriTadi
instrumenti sagadasaxado sistemaa. DdRes moqmedi kanonmdeblobiT
sagadasaxado sistema moicavs Semdeg gadasaxadebs:
_gadasaxadi Semosavalze, mogebaze da kapitalis Rirebulebis zrdaze:
 saSemosavlo gadasaxadi;
 mogebis gadasaxadi;
_ sayovelTao gadasaxadebi saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze:

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  damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadi;
 aqcizi;
_gadasaxadebi sagareo vaWrobasa da sagareo-ekonomikur operaciebze:
 importis gadasaxadi;
_ gadasaxadi sakuTrebaze:
 Qqonebis gadasaxadi;
_ sxva gadasaxadebi;
Aarsebobs saxelmwifo da adgilobrivi, pirdapiri da iribi, saerTo da
specialuri (gamoyenebis niSnis mixedviT), fiqsirebuli, progresuli,
regresuli (sagadamxdelo ganakveTebis mixedviT).
sagadasaxado statistikis amocanebia gadasaxadebis moculobis,
struqturis, dinamikis, gadasaxadebze moqmedi faqtorebis Seswavla da
prognozireba.
Ddinamikis dasaxasiaTeblad statistika iyenebs saindeqso meTods,
romlis safuZvelzec angariSobs sagadasaxao Semosavlebis saerTo indeqss.
sagadasaxo Semosavlebis saerTo indeqsi aigeba:

q11
 q 
q0 0
(5.2)

sagadasaxado bazebis indeqsi aigeba:

q10
q 
q00
(5.3)

sagadasaxo ganakveTebis indeqsi aigeba:

q11
 
q10

am indeqsebs Soris arsebobs Semdegi urTierTkavSiri:

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 q10 q11 q11
 
q00 q10 q00
(5.4)

e. i.  q   q   

absolutur maCvenebelTa safuZvelze SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes

Semdegi saxis SefardebiTi statistikuri maCveneblebi, romlebic
axasiaTeben saxelmwifo marTvis seqtoris saqmianobis ekonomikur Sedegebs:

1. saxelmwifo marTvis seqtoris xarjebis wili gaiangariSeba

saxelmwifo marTvis seqtoris xarjebis SefardebiT erovnul
produqtTan;
2. gadasaxadebis wili gaiangariSeba gadasaxadiT dabegrili
saxelmwifo marTvis seqtoris xarjebis SefardebiT erovnul
produqtTan;
3. gadasaxadebisa da mosakreblebis wili – gadasaxadisa da
socdazRvevis anaricxebis SefardebiT erovnul produqtTan.
AsaerTaSoriso SedarebebisaTvis gamoiyeneba saxelmwifo biujetis
deficitis ara absoluturi, aramed SefardebiTi done, romelic SeiZleba
gaangariSebul iqnes sxvadasxva meTodiT.
saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis (ssf) rekomendaciebiT, deficitis
SefardebiTi sidide gaiangariSeba, rogorc deficitis absoluturi
sididis Sefardeba mTlian Sida produqtTan. deficitis normatiuli
sidide mSp-sTan Seadgens 3%. is gamoiyeneba ssf-is mier kreditebis
gacemisa da ssf-Si qveynebis wevrad miRebisas.
aranakleb mniSvnelovania saxelmwifo valis statistikuri
maCveneblebis gaangariSeba.
saxelmwifo valis momsaxureba xorcieldeba procentebis gadaxdisa
da sesxis ZiriTadi Tanxis dafarviT.
sesxis wliuri momsaxurebis sidide SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes
Semdegi formulis safuZvelze:

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 D  D1  D2 , (5.5)

sadac D1 - aris sesxze daricxuli procentis sidide;

D2 - dafaruli ZiriTadi sesxis sidide.

statistika gansazRvravs momsaxurebis moculobas Semdegi

formuliT:

D1  D2
K , (5.6)
Э

sadac Э aris qveynis saeqsporto sargeblis sidide.

M meore meTodi momsaxurebis moculobis gaangariSebisas iTvaliswinebs

valis momsaxurebis absoluturi sididis Sefardebas mSp-Tan, e. i.:

D1  D2
K . (5.7)
BBП

5.2. safinanso-ekonomikuri gaangariSebebis statistikuri

meTodologiis ZiriTadi kategoriebi da debulebebi

sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlas Tan axlavs saqmianobis axali

saxeobebis gaCena, romlebsac sawarmos finansuri menejerisaTvis gaCnia
principulad axali xasiaTi. maT ricxvs ganekuTvneba fuladi saxsrebis
efeqturad ganTavsebis amocana.
fuli Rebulobs kidev erT daxasiaTebas - droiT faseulobas. es
parametri SeiZleba ganvixiloT or aspeqtSi.
pirveli aspeqti dakavSirebulia droTa ganmavlobaSi naRdi fulis
gaufasurebasTan. warmovidginoT, rom sawarmos gaaCnia Tavisufali fuladi
saxsrebi 15 aTasi laris odenobiT, xolo inflacia, anu fulis
gaufasureba weliwadSi Seadgens 20%. Ees niSnavs, rom ukve momdevno wels,

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Tu fuls SevinaxavT „baliSis qveS“, misi msyidvelobiTi unari Semcirdeba
da Seadgens mimdinare fasebSi mxolod 12,5 aTas lars.
meore aspeqti dakvSirebulia kapitalis (fuladi saSualebebis)
brunvasTan. saqmis arsis gagebisTvis ganvixiloT martivi magaliTi.
magaliTi:

sawarmos gaaCnia SesaZlebloba, monawileoba miiRos romeliRac

saqmian operaciaSi. am operacias moaqvs ori wlis gasvlis Semdeg

Semosavali 10 aTasi laris odenobiT. SemoTavazebulia Semosavalis

miRebis SerCevis varianti: Semosavlis miReba yoveli wlis bolos 5 aTasi
laris odenobiT, an mTliani Tanxis erTdrouli miReba orwliani periodis
bolos.
aq cxovrebiseul donezec ki cxadia, rom meore varianti, pirvel
variantTan SedarebiT, ar aris momgebiani. magram ratom? imitom, rom
pirveli wlis bolos miRebuli Tanxa isev SeiZleba gaiSvas brunvaSi da
moitanos damatebiTi Semosavali. erTi SexedviT aseTi daskvna naTelia da
arc moiTxovs specialur codnas, Tumca arCevis problema momentalurad
rTuldeba, Tu odnav Seicvleba amocanis piroba.
magaliTisaTvis ganvixiloT Semosavlebis aseTi variantebi:

varianti a): 10 aTasi lari ori wlis Semdeg;

varianti b): pirveli weli _ 4 aTasi lari, meore weli _ 5 aTasi

lari. am SemTxvevaSi cxadi ar aris, Tu romeli variantia ufro
xelsayreli.
SeiZleba moyvanili magaliTis kidev ufro garTuleba damatebiTi
pirobebis SemotaniT: inflaciis, periodulad da erTdroulad gadaxdili
Semosavlebis sidideebis stoqasturobis, damatebiTi momsaxurebis gawevis
da a. S.
problema „fuli _ dro“ ar aris axali, amitom SemuSavebulia
moxerxebuli algoriTmebi da modelebi, romlebic iZleva, mimdinare
momentis poziciidan, momavali Semosavlebis WeSmarit fasebSi

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orientirebisa da fuladi Tanxebis sxvadasxva droSi Sedarebis
saSualebas.
ZiriTadi algoriTmebis ageba sakmaod martivia da dafuZnebulia
Semdeg ideas: finansuri garigebebis umartivesi saxeobaa romelime Tanxis
sesxad gacema PV (es maCvenebeli SemdgomSi aRiniSneba p-Ti), im pirobiT,
rom raRac t drois Semdeg dabrunebuli iqneba meti Tanxa FV (S). msgavsi
garigebis Sedegianoba SeiZleba daxasiaTdes ornairad: an absoluturi
maCveneblis matebiT (FV- PV), an romelime SefardebiTi maCveneblis
gaangariSebiT.
absoluturi maCveneblebi, maTi sivrcobriv-droiT aspeqtSi
araSesadarisobis gamo, xSirad gamouyenebadia msgavsi SefasebisaTvis.
amitom gamoiyeneba specialuri maCvenebeli _ ganakveTi. es maCvenebeli
gaiangariSeba amosavali Tanxis namatis sabaziso sididesTan SefardebiT.
sabaziso sidided SeiZleba aRebuli iqnas an PV, an FV.

amgvarad, t drois ganakveTi SeiZleba gaangariSebuli iqnas am ori

formulidan erT-erTiT:

FV  PV
rt  , (5.8)
PV

FV  PV
dt  . (5.9)
FV

finansur gaangariSebebSi pirveli maCvenebeli miRebulia, rogorc:

saprocento ganakveTi, procentis ganakveTi, procenti, zrda, mogebis norma,
Semosavlianoba, meore _ saaRricxvo ganakveTi an diskonti.

orive ganakveTi dakavSirebulia erTmaneTTan, anu, Tu viciT erTi

maCvenebeli, SeiZleba gaviangariSoT meore:

dt rt
rt  , an dt  , (5.10)
1 d t 1 r t

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 orive maCvenebeli SeiZleba gamoisaxos aTwiladebSi an procentebSi.
gansxvaveba am formulebSi mdgomareobs imaSi, Tu romeli sidide aiReba
Sedarebis bazad: pirvel formulaSi (1) _ sawyisi Tanxa, meore formulaSi
(2) _ dasabrunebeli (mosalodneli) Tanxa.

maCvenebelTa gansazRvridan gamomdinareobs, rom rt >0 da d t <1.

SemTxveva, rodesac rt  0 da d t  0 ar ganixileba, ramdenadac, maSin

FP  PV (ramdeni sesxic gaica, imdenive dabrunda ukan) da SeiZleba

CaiTvalos, rom finansuri garigeba, rogorc aseTi, ubralod ar aris.
SemTxvevas, rodesac d t  1 Seesatyviseba PV  0 , e. i. araviTari Tanxa
ar iyo gacemuli sesxad da raRac t drois Semdeg vRebulobT FV, es
niSnavs imas, rom faqtiurad adgili aqvs ,,dayaCaRebas”.
mainc ra TanafardobaSi aris es maCveneblebi erTmaneTTan?
cxadia, rom d t < rt , magram ramdenadac aseve d t <1, maSin dt < min

( rt ,1). bolo utoloba iZleva rt saprocento ganakveTiT saaRricxvo ganakveTi

d t -s ukeT Sefasebis saSualebas, vidre es SeiZleba gakeTdes, magaliTad

utoloba d t <1-is gamoyenebiT. ase, rom rt =0,08 (e. i. rt =8%) d t < min (0,08; 1) –

dan: gamodis, rom d t < 0,08 aris d t -s ufro zusti Sefaseba, vidre d t < 1.

rt da dt Soris dacilebis done damokidebulia saprocento

ganakveTis doneze, romelsac adgili aqvs drois konkretul momentSi. ase,
magaliTad, Tu rt = 7%, maSin d t = 6.54%, e. i. daSoreba SedarebiT ar aris
didi.
aseTi daskvnis dasabuTeba iolia Semdegi mosazrebis gamoyenebiT:
imis gamo, rom 0 < d t < 1, marTlzomieria

1 dt
 1  d t  d t2  d 3t ... . amitom rt   d t  d t3  d t3  d t4  ... .
1  dt 1  dt

Tu sidide d t sakmaod mcirea, maSin gantolebis marjvena nawilis

yvela wevris, dawyebuli meore wevridan, ugulvelyofiT, miviRebT rt = d t .

191
kerZod, Tu d t =0,074 (rac tolia d t =7,4%), maSin ugulvelvyofT wevrebs

d t2  0,005476, d t3  0,0004052 da a. S.

prognozul gaangariSebebSi, magaliTad, sainvesticio proeqtebis

Sefasebisas, rogorc wesi, saqme aqvT saprocento ganakveTTan, Tumca mas
xazi ar gaesmeba. es aixsneba SemdegiT:

perveli, sainvesticio proeqtebis analizi, romelic dafuZnebulia

formalizirebul algoritmebze, SeiZleba Sesruldes mxolod SedarebiT
stabilur ekonomikaSi, rodesac saprocento ganakveTebis done ar aris
didi, SedarebiT ganWvretadia im TvalsazrisiT, rom maTi mniSvneloba ar
SeiZleba Seicvalos ramdenjerme, rogorc amas hqonda adgili Cvens
qveyanaSi. Tu saprocento ganakveTis mniSvnelovani variabelurobaa
mosalodneli, maSin gamoiyeneba analizis da gadawyvetilebis miRebis sxva
meTodebi, dafuZnebuli ZiriTadad araformalizebul kriteriumebze.
ganakveTebis gonivruli mniSvnelobebisas daSoreba saprocento da
diskontur ganakveTs Soris SedarebiT mcirea da amito prognozul
gaangaruSebaSi SesaZlebelia nebismieri maTganis gamoyeneba.
meore, prognozuli gaangariSebebi ar moiTxovs raRac
gansakuTrebulad amaRlebul sizustes, ramdenadac amdagvari
gaangariSebebis Sedegebi aris orientiri da ara zusti Sefaseba.
Ggarda ganxiluli maCveneblebisa xSirad gamoiyeneben sidides,
romelic iwodeba diskot-faqtorad:
1 PV
vt  1  d t   (5.11)
1  rt FV

diskot-faqtori uCvenebs romel nawils Seadgens Tanxa PV Tanxa FV-

Si. cxadia, rom 0 < vt < 1 da sam maCvenebels Soris marTlzomieria

Tanafardoba d t  vt rt .

diskot-faqtori vt SeiZleba gamoisaxos procentebSic.

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 moxerxebuli da TvalsaCino daxasiaTebad (gansakuTrebiT anabrebis
Sefasebisas) iTvleba PV Tanxis t droSi zrdis indeqsi Bt :

FV 1 1
Bt    1  rt  (5.12)
PV vt 1  dt

rogorc sxva ganxiluli maCveneblebi sidide Bt gamoisaxeba an

aTwiladSi an procentebSi.

zrdis indeqsi uCvenebs ramdenjer gaizarda sawyisi Tanxa t drois

ganmavlobaSi. Tu gvecodineba Bt SeiZleba sxva maCveneblebis gaangariSeba.

kerZod formula (5) _ dan gamodis, rom rt  B t 1.

magaliTi:
sawyisi Tanxa PV = 2 aT lari weliwadnaxevarSi gaizarda FV=4,6 aT
laramde gaviangariSoT zrdis indeqsi da gavakeToT daskvna.
4,6
Bt  B1.5   2.3 da rt  r1,5  2,3  1  1,3 (an 130%).
2

amdagvarad sawyisi Tanxa weliwadnaxevarSi gaizarda 2,3 jer, an rac

igivea gaizarda 130%-iT.
mocemuli periodis zrdis indeqsi uCvenebs ramdenjer gaizarda
kapitalis sidide winaperodis bolos kapitalis sididesTan mimarTebiT.
amitom Tu cnobilia zrdis tempebi Bt1 , Bt2 , ... , Btk drois Sesabamis peiodebSi

t1 , t 2 ,..., t k da es periodebi ganlagebulia Tanmimdevrulad, maSin zrdis

indeqsi t  t1  t 2  ...  t k ganmavlobaSi iqneba toli:

k
Bt  Bt1 * Bt2 * ... * Btk   Bti . (6).
i 1

maSasadame, Tu pirvel wels kapitali gaizarda 1,2 jer, meore wels

saerTo kapitali gaizarda 1.7 jer da mesame wels mTliani Tanxa gaizarda
1,3 jer, maSin sami wlis kapitalis zrdis indeqsi Seadgens

B3  1,2 *1,7 *1,3  2,652

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 amdagvarad nebismier martiv finansur gariSebebSi yovelTvis adgili
aqvs sami sididis arsebobas, maT Soris ori mocemulia, xolo erTi
saZiebo.
P process, romelSic mocemulia amosavali Tanxa da ganakveTi
finansur gaangariSebebSi ewodeba namati, amosaval sidides _ namati Tanxa,
xolo ganakveTs _ namatis ganakveTi.
process, romelSic mocemulia momavlSi misaRebi mosalodneli Tanxa
da ganakveTi ewodeba diskontireba, amosavl sidides _ dayvanili Tanxa,
xolo ganakveTs _ diskontirebis ganakveTi.
pirvel SemTxvevaSi saubaria fuladi nakadis moZraobaze awmyodan
momavlisaken, xolo meoreSi _moZraobaze momavlidan awmyosaken.
formula 1-T mocemuli finansuri operaciis ekonomikuri arsi
mdgomareobs im Tanxis sididis gansazRvraSi, romelic iqneba, an romelic
surs investors gankargos am operaciis damTavrebis Semdeg. ramdenad
formula 1-dan

FV  PV (1  rt ), (5.13)

maSin FV > PV (ramdenadac 1+ rt >1), e.i. dro axdens fulis generirebas.

bunebrivia, aseTive daskvnis gakeTeba SeiZleba formula 2-s
gamoyenebiTac, ramdenadac misgan gamomdinareobs, rom
PV  FV (1  d t ) (8) da marTlzomieria utoloba 1  d t 1 .

sxvaobas I  FV  PV ewodeba procenti. es fuladi Tanxis (PV ) sesxad

gacemis Sedegad miRebuli Semosavlis sididea.
(unda aRiniSnos, rom maTematikaSi procenti ewodeba raRac ricxvis meased
wils, rac bunebrivia, gansxvavdeba procentis ekonomikuri cnebisgan).
aRsaniSnavia, rom namatis ganakveTis saxiT SeiZleba gamodiodes
rogorc saprocento aseve saaRricxvo ganakveTi. Tu namati Tanxa FV
imyofeba formula (7-Si), maSin namatis ganakveTi aris saprocento
ganakveTi. meores mxriv formula (8-gan) gamodinareobs rom namati Tanxa

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 PV
SeiZleba gaangariSdes formuliT FV  , amitom am SemTxvevaSi namatis
1  dt
ganakveTi aris saaRricxvo ganakveTi. (magaliTi, rodesac saaRricxvo
ganakveTi gamoiyeneba namatisaTvis aris bankis poziciidan veqsilis
aRricxva bankSi.

analogiuri msjeloba SeiZleba gamoiTqvas diskontirebis

ganakveTTan dakavSirebiTac. Tu dayvanili Tanxa imyofeba formula (8-is)
mixedviT, maSin diskontirebis gankveTis saxiT gamodis saaRricxvo
ganakveTi. meores mxriv formula (7-gan) gamodinareobs rom dayvanili
FV
Tanxa SeiZleba gaangariSdes formuliT PV  , e.i. diskontirebis
1  rt
gankveTis saxiT gamodis saprocento ganakveTi.
praqtikaSi Semosavlianoba _ aramudmivi sididea, damokidebuli
ZiriTadad riskis doneze, romelic asocirdeba biznesis im saxeobasTan
sadac gakeTda kapitalis investireba. aq kavSiri pirdapirpropociulia:
ramdenad sariskoa biznesi miT ufro didia Semosavlianobis mniSvneloba.
ufro naklebad sariskoa dabandebebi saxelmwifo fasian qaRaldebSi an
saxelmwifo bankSi, Tumca operaciis Semosavlianoba am SemTxvevaSi
SedarebiT naklebia.
sidide FV , romelic ganisazRvreba formula (7-T). uCvenebs

Semosavlianobis mocermuli donis probebSo ( rt ) dRevandeli sididis PV

momaval Rirebulebas.
magaliTi:
sawarmom miiRo krediti 50 aT laris odenobiT (PV ) erTi wlis
vadiT (t ) 80 aT laris odenobiT dabrunebis pirobiT ( FV ).

am SemTxvevaSi saprocento ganakveTi r1 =0,6 an r1 =60%, saaRricxvo

ganakveti d1  0,375 an d1  37,5%, xolo diskont-faqtori

v1  100%  37,5  62,5. Tu sawarmom aRebuli kreditisaTvis erTi wlis Semdeg

unda daabrunos FV =90 aT lari, maSin formula (8-s) mixedviT SeiZleba

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kreditis sididis moZebna 40% saaRricxvo ganakveTiT. PV  90 * (1  0,4)  54 aT
lars
saprocento ganakveTi rt zogadi saxiT SeiZleba warmodgenili iqnes

rogorc sidide rt -s ganmsazRvreli oTxi komponentis jami:

rt  i  f  E p  g (t ),

sadac i aris procentis norma, romelic asaxavs kreditoris kompensacias

aRebuli kreditis sxva miznebisTvis gamoyenebaze uaris Tqmis
SemTxvevaSi, sanam krediti ar iqneba dabrunebuli;
f _ riskis faqtori e.w. fiSeris efeqti, romelic warmoadgens
kreditorisaTvis kompensacias procentis an saerTod sruli
Tanxis armiRebis riskisaTvis;
E p _ sainflacio danamati, e.i. kompensacia inflaciis Sedegad

fulis msyidvelobiTi unaris Semcirebis, fasebis doneSi

SesaZlo cvlilebebisaTvis;
g (t ) _ kompensacia, damokidebuli t drois xangrZlivobaze.
TvalsaCinoebisaTvis, situaciis gamartvebiT, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom
saprocento ganakveTi, gansazRvruli doniT, warmoadgens sasexo
kapitalis bazarze sameurneo agentebis urTierTqmedebis Sedegs.
dauSvaT DD aris moTxovnis mrudi sasexo kapitalze, romelic
asaxavs damokidebulebas fuladi saSualebebis moculobis moTxovnasa da
saprocento ganakveTis sidideebs Soris. bunebrivia, saprocento ganakveTis
zrdasTan erTad imatebs misawodebeli fuladi saSualebebis moculoba.
analogiuradaa, Tu SS aris sasesxo kapitalis miwodebis mrudi, romelic
uCvenebs, rom saprocento ganakveTis zrdasTan erTad izrdeba
misawodebeli fuladi saSualebebis moculoba. saprocento ganakveTis
sidide r' ganisazRvreba DD da SS mrudebis gadakveTis wertiliT, e.w.
wonasworobis wertiliT, romelSic moTxovnis moculoba miwodebis
moculobis tolia.

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 amdagvarad, ise rogorc produqtebis an resursebis bazarze, fulze
moTxonisa da fulis miwodebis mrudebis gadakveTa gansazRvravs
gawonasworebul fass, romelic mocemul SemTxvevaSi aris
gawonasworebuli saprocento ganakveTi. sxva sityvebiT, saprocento
ganakveTi warmoadgens fulis gamoyenebis fass.

5.3. ZiriTadi cnebebi

aqcia _ fasiani qaRaldi, romelic adasturebs misi mflobelis mier

Setanil wils aqcionerTa sazogadoebis sawesdebo kapitalSi. aqcia
mflobels aZlevs uflebas miiRos mogebis nawili dividendebis saxiT,
gayidos fasiani qaRaldebi bazarze, monawileoba miiRos aqcionerTa
sazogadoebis marTvaSi.
investicia _ kapitalis moTavsebis iseTi xerxia, romelmac unda
uzrunvelyos kapitalis Rirebulebis SenarCuneba an gadideba da (an)
moitanos Semosavlis dadebiTi sidide.
investori _ iuridiuli an fizikuri piri, romelic iZens fasian
qaRaldebs. investori SeiZleba iyos individualuri, romelic iZens fasian
qaRaldebs sakuTari kapitaliT, mas bolo kreditors uwodeben da
instituciuri, romelic iZens fasian qaRaldebs ara imdenad skuTari,
ramdenadac moziduli fuliT, is Sualeduri rgolia kapitalis
mobilizebasa da investirebaSi.
marJa _ sxvadsxva maCveneblebs Soris sxvaobis gamomxatveli sidide.
safondo birJaze fasiani qaRaldebis gayidvisas sxvaoba myidvelis fassa
da gamyidvelis fass Soris.
obligaciebi _ grZelvadiani fasiani qaRaldebi, romlebsac moaqvT
Semosavali procentis saxiT winaswar gansazRvruli ganakveTiT, plus
nominaluri Rirebulebis Tanxa dafarvis vadis dadgomisas.
opcioni (garigeba premiiT) _ sakuTrebis yidvis an gayidvis, miRebis
an SeTavazebis ufleba, romelsac dagenili pirobebis Sesabamisad iReben
fasSi kompensaciiT, am uflebis gamoyeneba xdeba opcionis mflobelis
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Sexedulebisamebr. opcionis gamoyenebis SeuZlebloba iwvevs fulis
danakargebs.
fasiani qaRaldebi _ sainvesticio instrumentebia, romlebic
adastureben savalo valdebulebebs an kompaniaSi monawileobas mesakuTris
uflebiT, garkveuli samonawileo wilis gayidvis an yidvis kanonier
uflebas. maTi ZiriTadi saxeobebia: obligaciebi, aqciebi da opcionebi.
fiuCersebi _ kontraqtebi, romlebSic mocemuli kontraqtis
gamyidveli valdebulebas kisrulobs fiqsirebuli fasiT da dawesebul
vadaSi miawodos garkveuli (finansuri an sasaqonlo) aqtivebi, kontraqtis
myidveli kisrulobs am aqtivebis SeZenas mocemuli pirobiT.
Cekri _ fasiani qaRaldebis erT-erTi gavrcelebuli saxeoba
dadgenili formis fuladi dokumenti.
hejireba _ ori an meti fasiani qaRaldis gaerTianeba erT
investiciur poziciad riskis Semcirebis an gamoricxvis mizniT.
finansuri leveriji warmoadgens, erTis mxriv, obligaciebisa da
privilegirebul aqciebis da, meores mxriv, Cveulebriv aqciebs Soris
Tanafardobas. is aqcionerTa sazogadoebis finansuri mdgradobis
maCvenebelia, rac aisaxeba portfeluri investiciebis Semosavlianobazec.
liverijis maRali done adasturebs im aqcionerT sazogadoebebis sisustes,
romlebsac gaaCniaT vali didi odenobiT obligaciebisa da
privilegirebuli aqciebis saxiT. frTxili investorebi, rogorc wesi, Tavs
ikaveben aseTi saxeobis fasiani qaRaldebis SeZenisagan.
anuiteti _ investiciebi, romlebsac moaqvT meanabresTvis
gansazRvruli Semosavali drois regularuli Sualedis Semdeg,
Cveulebriv, pensiaze gasvlis mere. ZiriTadad es aris saxsrebis dabandeba
sadazRvevo da sapensio fondebSi.
aqtivebis rentabeloba _ maCvenebeli, romelic axasiaTebs kompaniis
aqtivebis gamoyenebis efeqtianobas. es maCvenebeli gaiangariSeba wminda
mogebis gayofiT saSualowliuri aqtivebis jamze.

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 sakuTari kapitalis rentabeloba _ gaiangariSeba kompaniis wminda
mogebis gayofiT sakuTar kapitalze, procentebSi.
investiciebis rentabeloba _ investiciebis efeqtianobis maCvenebeli
ganisazRvreba wminda mogebis gayofiT investiciis moculobaze.
sainvesticio kapitalis _ rentabeloba axasiaTebs dafinansebis
xerxis gaTvaliswinebis gareSe kompanis mier mogebis generirebis unars. is
gaiangariSeba gadasaxadebisa da procentebis gadaxdamde mogebis sididis
gayofiT sakuTari da nasesxi kapitalis jamze.
gayidvebis rentabeloba _ gaiangariSeba wminda mogebis SefardebiT
gayidvebis moculobasTan. is, axasiaTebs ra gayidvebis rentabelobas,
asaxavs kompaniis sawarmoo saqmianobis efeqtianobas.
sasaqonlo-materialuri maragebis brunvadobis indeqsi _ uCvenebs
drois romelime periodSi Tu ramdenjer iyideba kompaniis maragi. is
gaiangariSeba mocemuli periodis ganmavlobaSi realizebuli produqciis
TviTRirebulebis gayofiT amave periodis maragebis saSualo sidideze.
yovelwliuri Semosavalis gaangariSebiTi done _ ganisazRvreba
rogorc saerTo investiciebsa da maT calkeul Rirebulabas Soris
sxvaobis Sefardeba proeqtis xangrZlivobasTan;
proeqtis amogebis periodi _ ewodeba dros (Tve, weli) romlis
ganmavlobaSi firmis sawarmoo saqmianobidan Semosulobebi dafaraven
investiciaze danaxarjebs. am maCvenebels gaaCnia erTi arsebiTi
naklovaneba, is ar iTvaliswinebs momavli periodebis Semosulobebis
faseulobas.
amogebis diskontirebuli periodi _ romelic ganisazRvreba
investiciebis Tanxis gayofiT yovelwliur Semosulobebze, dikontirebis
gaTvaliswinebiT. gaangariSebis es forma kargad axasiaTebs proeqtis risks,
da es misi Rirsebaa, xolo naklovaneba _ amogebis periodi ar asaxavs
proeqtis efeqtianobas amogebis Semdgom periodSi da ar SeiZleba
gamoyenebul iqnes proeqtis momgebianobis gansasazRvrelad.

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 wminda dayvanili Rirebuleba _ warmoadgens momavali Semosavalis
nakadis dRevandeli Rirebulebis Sefasebas. wminda dayvanili Rirebuleba
Sesabamisi saprocento ganakveTis meSveobiT diskontirebuli fuladi
nkadis an momavali mogebebis Rirebulebis tolia. is gamoiyeneba
investiciebze sxvadasxva SemoTavazebebis ranJirebisa da SefasebisaTvis,
Sedarebis saerTo bazis gamoyenebiT.investorma upiratesoba unda mianiWos
proeqtebs, romelTa wminda moyvanil Rirebulebas gaaCnia dadebiTi
mniSvneloba.
momgebianobis indeqsi _ aris sainvestico proeqtis Sefasebis
kriteriumi. is gaiangariSeba momavali fuladi nakadebis realizaciasTan
dakavSirebuli dayvanili Rirebulebis gayofiT Tavdapirveli
investiciebis dayvanil Rirebulebaze. momgebianobis indeqsi agreTve erT-
erTi im maCveneblTagania, romlis safuZvelze keTdeba sxvadasxva proeqtis
Sedareba da dafinansebaze gadawyvetilebis miReba.
rentabelobis Sinagani koeficienti (investiciebis rentabelobis
koeficienti). is gaiangariSeba diskontirebis ganakveTis moZebniT
gantolebidan, romelSic momavali fuladi nakadebis dayvanili
Rirebuleba investiciebis Tavdapirveli Tanxis tolia. proeqti iTvleba
mimzidvelad Tu am koeficientis mniSvneloba aRemateba investoris
kapitalis pirobiT Rirebulebas, magaliTad ganakveTs grZelvadiani
sabanko kreditis mixedviT.

5.4. safinanso birJisa da fasiani qaRaldebis statistikuri maCveneblebi

safinaso-sabako statistika fasiani qaRaldebis bazris raodenobrivi

daxasiaTebisaTvis angariSobs Semdeg statistikur maCveneblebs: garigebis
raodenoba, aqciebis raodenoba, garigebis Rirebuleba, birJis likviduroba
da a. S.

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 birJis likviduroba niSnavs birJis mTliani sabrunavi kapitalis
gadaqcevis siswrafes fulad kapitalSi, anu vaWrobis siswrafes. misi
pirdapiri maCveneblebia brunvadobis koeficienti da brunvadobis dReebi.
B brunvadobis koeficienti gaiangariSeba formuliT:
Q
ANU K (5.14)
S
sadac, QQQQ aris birJaze garigebaTa mTliani Rirebuleba sabazro
fasebSi;

S ki birJaze sabrunavi kapitalis saSualo naSTi mocemul periodSi.

Bbrunvadobis dReebi gamoiTvleba formuliT:
T
t (5.15)
K
sadac T aris kalendaruli dReebis ricxvi.

5.5. fulis mimoqcevis statistika

fulis mimoqcevis cneba da socialur-ekonomikuri mniSvneloba

finansuri statistikis erT-erTi globaluri mimarTulebaa qveynis

fuladi sistemis mdgomareobis Seswavla. fulis mimoqceva _ erovnuli
Semosavlis da sazogadoebrivi produqtis gacvlisa da ganawilebis
aucilebeli pirobaa. fulis mimoqceva warmoadgens fulis moZraobas da
asrulebs mimoqcevis saSualebis, gadaxdis, fuladi rezervebisa da
danazogebis formirebis funqcias.

operaciebis erToblioba, romlis drosac ama Tu im formiT

xorcieldeba fuladi saSualebebis moZraoba (gadacema) warmoadgens
fulad brunvas.

fulis mimoqcevis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebia:

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  fulis mimoqcevis asaxva da fulis gaufasurebaze moqmedi
faqtorebis Sefaseba;
 bankebis salaroebSi da maTgan naRdi fulis moZraobis arxebis
gamovlena;
 fulis mimoqcevaSi sezonuri ryevebis gansazRvra;
 emisiis moTxovnilebis da mimoqcevidan fulis amoRebis
aucileblobisa da Sesabamisi raodenobrivi maxasiaTeblebis
gansazRvra;
 mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebisa da danaxarjebis balansis
analizi.
fulis momoqcevis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema

fuladi momoqcevis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema moicavs:

 fulad brunvas;
 naRd fuls sabanko sistemis gareT;
 unaRdo saSualebebs;
 fulis mimoqcevis siCqares;
 brunvis xangrZlivobas;
 fuladi masis kupiurul agebulebas;
 indeqs-deflators;
 laris msyidvelobiT unars;
 angariSebze saxelmwifos oqros maragebiT, depozitebiT operaciebis
amsaxvel maCveneblebs;
 saerTaSoriso ekonomikur urTierTobebSi savaluto operaciebis
amsaxvel maCveneblebs.
mocemuli maCvenebelTa sistema efuZneba fulis iseT funqciebTan
dakavSirebul kategoriebs, rogoricaa Rirebulebis sazomi, mimoqcevis
saSualeba, gadaxdis, dagrovebisa da danazogis saSualeba.

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 5.6. mimoqcevaSi fulis saerTo masis gansazRvra

fulis mimoqcevis mniSvnelovani raodenobrivi maCvenebelia fuladi

masa, romelic warmoadgens sameurneo brunvis momsaxure da saxelmwifos,
kerZo pirebisa da dawesebulebebis kuTvnili msyidvelobiTi da
sagadasaxdelo saSualebebis erTobliv moculobas.
gansazRvruli TariRisaTvis da gansazRvrul periodSi fulis
mimoqcevis raodenobrivi cvlilebebis analizisaTvis da agreTve fuladi
masis moculobis da zrdis tempebis regulirebis RonisZiebebis
SesamuSaveblad gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva maCvenebeli _ fuladi agregatebi.
mTliani fuladi masa SeiZleba warmovidginoT, rogorc fuladi
agregatebis erToblioba, romelSic yoveli momdevno agregati moicavs wina
agregats.
likvidurobis donis mixedviT TiToeul qveyanaSi arsebobs
detalizaciis xarisxiT gansxvavebuli, fuladi agregatebis sakuTari
sistema.
fulad masaSi ganasxvaveben:
 aqtiur fuls (mosaxurebas uwevs naRd da unaRdo brunvas);
 pasiur fuls (dagroveba, rezervebi, naSTi sabanko angariSebze),
romlTa potenciuri gamoyeneba SesaZlebelia angariSsworebisaTvis.
saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis definiciebiT, fuladi agregatebi
Semdegi saxiT gamoiyureba:
MO _ esaa naRdi fuli mimoqcevaSi. naRdi fuladi masa Sedgeba
mosaxleobis xelT arsebuli naRdi fulisagan, iuridiuli pirebis
salaroebSi fuladi naSTisa da sabanko dawesebulebebis sabrunav
salaroebSi arsebuli naRdi fulisagan.
mosaxleobaSi naRdi fulis arseboba imis Sedegia, rom fulis miReba
da daxarjva droSi erTmaneTs ar emTxveva. mosaxleobis naRdi fulis
raodenoba damokidebulia fuladi Semosavlebis moculobaze, maTi miRebis
sixSireze, saqonliTa da momsaxurebiT uzrunvelyofaze da a. S.

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 naRdi fulis arsebobas adgili aqvs organizaciebisa da
dawesebulebebis salaroebSi, maT mier sakaso operaciebis normaluri
warmoebisaTvis.
fuladi agregati M1 = MO + depoziti moTxovnamde (angariSebi
moTxovnamde da saSualebebis naSTs dawesebulebebis, organizaciebisa da
sawarmoebis angariSebze).
fuladi agregati M1 asrulebs fuladi masis sididis dominirebuli
maCveneblis rols. saxeldobr, agregati M1 axdens mTliani Sida
produqtis, erovnuli Semosavlis ganawilebisa da gadanawilebis,
dagrovebisa da moxmarebis realizaciis operaciebis momsaxurebas. am
maCveneblis statistikuri aRricxva uzrunvelyofilia imiT, rom fulis
mniSvnelovani masa gadis depozituri dawesebulebebis angariSebiT.
agregati M1 moicavs fulis brunvis yvela im saSualebebs, romelic
SeiZleba gamoyenebuli iqnes konversiis, winaswari gayidvebis gareSe an
romelime sxva finansuri operaciis gaangariSebebSi da xasiaTdeba didi
likvidurobiT. fuladi masis danarCeni maCveneblebi SeiZleba gamoyenebuli
iqnes gadasaxadebis saxiT, mxolod rigi Sualeduri operaciebis Semdeg.
fuladi agregati M2 = M1 + uvado depozitebi. uvado depozitebi _ esaa
Semnaxvel da komerciul bankebSi iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis vadian
angariSebze (3 wlamde) narCeni saSualebebi. Tavisi SedgenilobiT M2
ramdenime-jer aRemateba M1 agregats.
fuladi agregati M3 = M2 + iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis sxva
depozitebi (sadazRvevo polisebi, fizikuri pirebis anabrebi 3 welze meti
vadiT, bankebis rezervebi da a.S.).
fuladi agregati M4 = M3 + saSualebebi fasian qaRaldebSi (aqciebi.
obligaciebebi, veqseli da a.S.)
fuladi agregati M5 = M4 + iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis
saSualebebi ucxour valutaSi.

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 fuladi agregatebi agebulia maTi likvidobis klebadobis wesiT.
agregatebs Soris aucilebelia wonasworoba; sxvanairad dairRveva fuladi
mimoqceva.
saerTaSoriso standartebi iTvaliswineben 4-dan 7-mde fulad
agregats. sxvadasxva qveyanaSi fuladi masa nawildeba agregatebis
sxvadasxva ricxvebad. gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis statistikaSi
upiratesobas aniWeben agregats, romelic aerTianebs naRd da depozitur
fuls. saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi yvela qveynisaTvis gaiangariSebs
saerTo agregat M1, romelic moicavs naRd fuls da Cekuri anabrebis yvela
saxeobas.
saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis rekomendaciiT gaiangariSeba:
 viwro fuli (agregati M1 saSualebebi);
 kvazi-fuli (uvado da saSemnaxvelo sabanko angariSebi da bazarze
formirebadi yvelaze likviduri finansuri operaciebi);
 farTo fuli = viwro fuli + kvazi-fuli.
zemoT CamoTvlili fuladi agregatebi _ esaa samomento maCveneblebi,
gaangariSebuli periodis dasawyisisaTvis (bolosaTvis). mTeli rigi
gaTvlebisaTvis saWiroa agregatebis saSualo zomaze monacemebi periodis
ganmavlobaSi. amisaTvis gamoiyeneben martivi saSualo ariTmetikulis
formulas:
_
M i = M i (periodis dasawyisisaTvis) + M i (periodis bolosaTvis)/2.
saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi gaiangariSeba Sesabamisi fuladi agregatis
wili mTlian Sida produqtSi. es maCvenebeli iwodeba monetarizaciis
(monetizaciis) koeficientad da axasiaTebs realizebuli mSp-s im nawils,
romlis uzrunvelyofa xdeba Sesabamisi agregatiT:
monetizaciis koeficienti = M i / mSp.
magaliTad, Tu agregat M1 -is Sefardeba mTlian Sida produqtTan
Seadgens 20%, maSin amboben, rom mSp-s 20% realizaciis uzrunvelyofa
xdeba am agregatiT.

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 monetizaciis koeficienti aris fuladi mimoqcevis mniSvnelovani
indikatori, ramdenadac misi donis Sefaseba SesaZlebelia mxolod
saerTaSoriso SedarebebiT. ganviTarebul qveynebSi monetizaciis
koeficienti (gaangariSebuli agregat M2 safuZvelze) Seadgens 60-dan 80%-
mde.
5.7. fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris maCveneblebi
mimoqcevaSi fulis raodenoba damokidebulia Semdeg faqtorebze:
 mSp-is sidideze;
 fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqareze.
fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqare xasiaTdeba ori maCvenebliT:
 fuladi masis brunvis raodenobiT (br.r.);
 erTi brunvis xangrZlivobiT (x.br.).
fuladi masis brunvis raodenoba ganisazRvreba mTliani Sida
_
produqtis sididis SefardebiT fuladi masis saSualo sididesTan ( M ):
_
br. r. = mSp/ M .
brunvadobis koeficienti uCvenebs, saSualod ramdeni brunva
ganaxorciela fuladma masam wlis ganmavlobaSi. sxva sityvebiT _ wlis
ganmavlobaSi ramdenjer iqna gamoyenebuli valuta saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis Sesasyidad. brunvis ricxvis zrdisas matulobs fuladi
masis mimoqcevis siCqare. es aris fuladi masis siCqaris maxasiaTebeli
pirdapiri maCvenebeli.
erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba gaiangariSeba dReebSi, (D) periodSi
sabanko dReebis ricxvis SefardebiT brunvis raodenobasTan.
br. x. = D/br. r.
saerTaSoriso standartebiT, weliwadSi sabanko dReebis raodenoba
tolia 360 dRis, kvartalSi _ 180 dRis, TveSi _ 30 dRis. Ees maCvenebeli
axasiaTebs ramden dReSi ganxorcielda fuladi masis erTi brunva. Tu
dReebis raodenoba mcirdeba, es niSnavs imas, rom erTi da igive moculobis

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mTliani Sida produqtis momsaxurebisaTvis saWiroa naklebi dReebi. es
brunvis siCqaris uku maCvenebelia.
fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlileba iwvevs misi brunvidan
amoRebas (mimoqcevaSi gaSvebis), romelic ganisazRvreba formuliT:
M = (br. x1 _ br. x0) x mSp/D,
sadac mSp/D _ saangariSo periodSi mTliani Sida produqtis erTdRiuri
realizaciis sididea.
am maCveneblebis gaangariSeba ganvixiloT momdevno cxrilSi
motanili monacemebis safuZvelze:
ori periodis fuladi masa da mTliani Sida produqti

maCveneblebi sabaziso saangariSo

periodi periodi

mSp, f. e. 740 754

fuladi masa, f. e. 280 320

gaviangariSoT brunvadobis koeficienti:

1. sabaziso periodSi: Kbr0 = 740/280=2,6 jer;

2. saangariSo periodSi: Kbr1 = 754/320=2,4 jer;
es niSnavs imas, rom fuladi masa sabaziso periodSi dabrunda 2,6-jer,
saangariSo periodSi ki 2,4 jer (e.i. mimoqcevis siCqare Senelda).

gaviangariSoT erTi brunvis xaangrZlivoba:

1. sabaziso periodSi: x.br.0 = 360/2,6=138,5 dRe;
2. saangariSo periodSi: x.br1 = 360/2,4=150 dRe;
vinaidan fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqare Senelda, 754 f. e. sididis
mTliani Sida produqtis realizaciis uzrunvelsayofad saWiro gaxda
damtebiT fulis Tanxis CarTva, romelic tolia:
M = (150 _ 138,5) x 754/360 = 24,1 f. e.

207
 brunvadobis koeficienti da erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba
urTierTakavSirebulia erTmaneTTan. es niSnavs imas, rom Tu mocemuli
maCveneblebidan cnobilia erTi, maSin SeiZleba meores povna.
Tu cnobilia brunvaTa ricxvi, maSin erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba
(x.br) SeiZleba vipovoT Semdegnairad:
x.br.= D/ Kbr = 360/2,6 = 138,5 dRe.
Tu cnobilia erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba, maSin brunvaTa ricxvi
ganisazRvreba formuliT:
r.br. = D/x. br = 360/138,5 = 2,6-jer.
saangariSo periodSi fuladi masis brunvaTa raodenobis cvlileba
sabazisosTan SedarebiT ganpirobebulia ori faqtoris gavleniT: mTliani
Sida produqtis da mimoqcevaSi fuladi masis zomis cvlilebebiT.
pirveli faqtoris gavlena ganisazRvreba formuliT:
 r.br.(mSp) = mSp1 _ mSp0 / M 1 = 754 _ 740/320 = 0,04-jer.
meore faqtoris gavlena ganisazRvreba formuliT:
 r.br.(M ) = mSp0 / M 1 _ mSp0/ M 0 = 740/320 _ 740/280 = _0,33-jer,

sadac M 1 da M 0 _ fuladi masa Sesabamisad saangariSo da sabaziso

periodebSi.
am dros unda iyos daculi Semdegi toloba:
 r.br. =  r.br.(mSp) +  r.br.(M ),
2,4 _ 2,6 = 0,04+ (_0,33).
gansxvaveba ganpirobebulia damrgvalebebiT.
maSasadame, fuladi masis 40 f. e. gadidebam gamoiwvia misi brunvis
siCqaris 0,33 brunviT Semcireba, xolo mSp-is gadidebam 0,04 brunviT
gazarda mimoqcevis siCqare.
fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris Seswavlisas gansakuTrebiT
mniSvnelovania naRdi fulis mimoqcevis siCqaris analizi, e.i. agregat MO -
is. fuladi masidan am agregatis gamoyofiT, miviRebT fuladi masis
mimoqcevis siCqaris models: mSp/M= mSp/ MO x MO/ M.
am modelis Cawera SeiZleba gamartivebuli saxiTac:

208
 r.br= a x b,
sadac MO/ M aris naRdi fulis wili saerTo fuladi masis mimoqcevaSi.
es modeli iZleva naRdi fulis brunvis siCqaris (a) da saerTo
fulad masaSi maTi wilis (b) cvlilebebiT ganpirobebuli fulis
mimoqcevis siCqaris absoluturi matebis gansazRvris saSualebas.
saerTo fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris absoluturi cvlileba
ganisazRvreba Semdegnairad:
 r.br. = r.br1 _ r.br0.
mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlileba (a) faqtoris xarjze:
 r.br(a). = (a1 _ a0)* b1
mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlileba (b) faqtoris xarjze:
 r.br(b) = (b1 _ b0)* a1
fulis masis mimoqcevis siCqaris analizis meTodika ganvixiloT
Semdeg cxrilSi motanili monacemebis safuZvelze:

maCveneblebi aRniSvnebi sabaziso saangariSo

periodi periodi

mTliani Sida produqti, mSp 17173 26139

f. e.

saerTo fuladi masa, f. e. M 664 1249

naRdi fuli, f. e. M0 239 512

gaangariSebiTi
maCveneblebi:

saerTo fuladi masis

mSp/ M=r.br 25,9 20,9
mimoqcevis siCqare, jer

naRdi fulis mimoqcevis

209
siCqare, jer

mSp/ M0= a 71,9 51,1

naRdi fulis wili

saerTo fulad masaSi

M0/ M= b 0,36 0,41

saerTo fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqarem saangariSo periodSi daiwia

sabazisosTan SedarebiT 5 brunviT:
 r.br = 20,9 _ 25,9 = _ 5 brunva, maT Soris:
A1) naRdi fulis mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlilebis xarjze:
 r.br(a). = (51,1 _ 71,9) x 0,41 = _8,6 brunva.
2) saerTo fulad masaSi naRdi fulis wilis cvlilebis xarjze:
 r.br(b) = (0,41 _ 0,36) x 71,9 = 3,6 brunva.
am dros daculi unda iyos toloba:
_5 = _8,6+3,6.
motanili gaangariSebidan SeiZleba Semdegi daskvnis gakeTeba:
saangariSo periodSi adgili aqvs fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris
cvlilebis araxelsayrel tendencias sabazisosTan SedarebiT. saerTo
fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqarem daiwia 5 brunviT, maT Soris is Semcirda
pirveli faqtoris xarjze 8,6 brunviT (e.i. naRdi fulis mimoqcevis
siCqaris dawevis xarjze).
mocemuli qveynis ekonomikaSi araxelsayrel tendenciaze metyvelebs
mTliani Sida produqtisa da fuladi masis zrdis tempebic.
Sesaswavl periodSi mTliani Sida produqti gaizarda 1,5-jer
 26139   1249 
 , im dros, rodesac fuladi masa gaizarda 1,9-jer  .
 17173   664 

5.8. sabanko-sakredito statistika

210
 saqarTveloSi sabanko sistemis ZiriTad rgols warmoadgens erovnu-
li banki. igi axorcielebs qveyanaSi fulad-sakredito regulirebas.
saqarTvelos erovnuli banki Sesabamisi kanonmdeblobis safuZvelze
SeimuSavebs fulad-sakredito politikis strategias da taqtikas. am
politikis Sedegebi SesaZlebelia Sefasdes monetaruli indikatorebiT.
aseTi indikatorebi garkveulwilad fulis bazarsa da ZiriTad socialur-
ekonomikur maCveneblebs Soris damakavSirebeli rgolia.

sabanko kreditis ZiriTad statistikur maCveneblebs miekuTvneba:

• ekonomikisa da mosaxleobis dakreditebisaTvis bankebis mier gacemuli
Tanxebis moculoba;
• sakredito dabandebebis saerTo TanxaSi moklevadiani da grZelvadiani
kreditebis xvedriTi wili;
• sawarmoebis mier bankebSi aRebuli sesxebis vadagadacilebuli
davalianeba.
sakredito Tanxebis gamoyenebis analizisas statistikaSi
gaiangariSeba Semdegi maCveneblebi:
kreditis brunvis ricxvi (K), kreditis brunvadoba dReebSi (T), produqciis
gamoSvebis moculoba sakredito resursebis erT larze.
brunvaTa ricxvi ganisazRvreba Semdegi formuliT:
Q
K ,
S

sadac K- brunvaTa ricxvia mocemul periodSi;

Q -kreditis brunva gacemis an dafarvis mixedviT;

S  kreditis saSualo naSTi.

K kreditis dReebSi brunvadobis gasaangariSeblad saWiroa mocemuli
periodis kalendaruli dReebis ricxvis Sefardeba brunvadobis
koeficientTan. maSasadame,
T
t (5.16)
K

211
G gacemuli kreditis yovel erT larze damatebiT gamoSvebuli
produqciis raodenoba gaiangariSeba gamoSvebuli produqciis SefardebiT
gacemuli kreditis mTlian moculobasTan.
nebismieri safinanso, sakredito an komerciuli operacia warmoadgens
maT monawileebs Soris SeTanxmebaTa erTobliobas Semdegi pirobebiT:
kreditis moculoba, saqonlis fasi, procentis daricxvisa da ZiriTadi
valis dafarvis xerxi da sxva.
finansur gaangariSebaSi procentis qveS igulisxmeba nebismieri
formis valis saxiT aRebuli Tanxidan miRebuli Semosavlis absoluturi
sidide. procentis gadaxda kreditorisaTvis xdeba valis sidideze
daricxviT an masTan erTad.
finansur raodenobriv analizSi saprocento ganakveTi warmoadgens
ara marto savalo Tanxis gazrdis instruments, aramed aseve finansuri
operaciis Semosavlis sazoms.
arsebobs saprocento ganakveTis ori ZiriTadi saxe: martivi da
rTuli. sawyisi Tanxis zrdis meqanizmi martivi saprocento ganakveTis
dros maTematikurad Semdegnairad SeiZleba gamovsaxoT:
P  Pi  Pi  P(1  i  i)  P(1  2i) ,
s  P(1  ni) ;
xolo rTuli saprocento ganakveTis dros
S1  P  Pi  P(1  i) ,

S2  S1  Si1  S1 (1  i)  P(1  i)(1  i)  P(1  i)2 ,

S  P(1  i)n ,

sadac, P - Tavdapirveli Tanxaa;

i - saprocento ganakveTi;
n - welTa ricxvi;
S - dagrovili fuli, Tavdapirveli Tanxa masze daricxuli procentiT
vadis (periodis) bolos.

212
 Tu sesxis gacema unda moxdes erT wlamde vadiT, maSin bankisaTvis
ufro momgebiania martivi, xolo erT welze meti periodisaTvis – rTuli
saprocento ganakveTi.

5.9. inflacia da holdinguri mogeba biznesSi

inflacia socialuri, ekonomikuri da politikuri ganviTarebis erT-

erTi urTulesi da umwvavesi problemaa. igi metnaklebi siRrmiTa da
masStabebiT yvela qveynis ekonomikis ganviTarebisTvisaa damaxasiaTebeli.
inflacia, rogorc ekonomikuri movlena xangrZlivi periodis
manZilze arsebobs. Tavad termini inflacia laTinuri sityvaa, rac niSnavs
`gabervas~. Mmisgan arc erTi qveyana araa dazRveuli.
inflacia niSnavs fasebis saerTo donis amaRlebas, romelic
ganapirobebulia brunvaSi myofi fuladi masisa da misi saqonliT
uzrunvelyofas Soris wonasworobis darRveviT. igi damangrevel gavlenas
axdens rogorc makro – ise mikroekonomikur procesebze, biznessa da
menejmentze. inflaciis Sedegia makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis xelovnuri
gadideba da am safuZvelze cxovrebis donis moCvenebiTi gaumjobeseba.
Ddisproporcia aRmocendeba sxvadasxva erTmaneTTan dakavSirebuli
mizezebiT. Eesenia: inflaciuri moTxovnis warmoSoba da danaxarjebis
donis zrda. amitom didi mniSvneloba eniWeba inflaciis Seswavlas, misi
gazomvis meTodebis dauflebasa da saTanado ekonomikuri, biznesmenuri,
menejmenturi gadawyvetilebebis miRebas prevenciuli RonisZiebebis
gasatareblad qveynisa da mis calkeul regionebSi.
inflacia iwvevs fasebis saerTo donis zrdas, magram ara yvela saxis
saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze fasis aucileblad momatebas. inflaciis dros
Tavs iCens fasebis Zalzed araTanabari zrdis tendencia. igi zogjer
Tanabari tempebiT, zogjer arc ki izrdeba. Uunda aRiniSnos, rom inflacia

213
gamoxatulebas poulobs bazris xangrZliv saerTo uwonasworobaSi
moTxovnis mxriv, magram es arc sayovelTao movlenaa da arc inflaciuri,
am SemTxvevaSi Zalian didi rolis Semsrulebelia bazarze moTxovna-
miwodebis Tanafardoba. moTxovnis SedarebiTi zrda miwodebasTan
SedarebiT gviCvenebs mxolod bazris meqanizmis muSaobas da ar exeba
inflacias, magram roca uwonasworoba xangrZlivia da erTbaSad mravali
bazris damaxasiaTebel Taviseburebad iqceva, saqme gvaqvs inflaciuri
procesis gaSlasTan.
inflacia iwvevs fuladi mimoqcevis kanonis darRvevas da amis Semdeg
qaRaldis fulis gaumjobesebas oqrosa da saqonelTan SedarebiT.
saqonlis fasis zrdisa da fulis msyidvelobiTi unaris Semcirebis
pirobebSi warmoiSoba oqroze laJi, rac niSnavs oqros sabazro fasis
gadidebas qaRaldis fulis niSnebis raodenobasTan SefardebiT. Aaqedan
gamomdinare sCans, rom liTonis fulis inflacia gamoricxulia, radgan
Tu raime mizeziT sarealizacio saqonlis masa Semcirdeba, oqros
monetebis nawili gava mimoqcevidan da iqceva ganZad.
Aamrigad SeiZleba vTqvaT, rom inflacia dakavSirebulia qaRaldis
fulTan, mas ara aqvs oqros is Tviseba, rom avtomaturad datovos
mimoqcevis sfero da gadaiqces dagrovebis saSualebad. Amas isic emateba,
rom qveynebis mTavrobaTa umravlesoba biujetis Sesrulebis procesSi,
yovelTvis `aRmoaCenen~ Seusabamobas biujetis xarjebsa da Semosavlebs
Soris. am mizniT xdeba fulis emisia, romelic Tavis mxriv iwvevs fasebis
swraf zrdas da ekonomikaSi qmnis Sokur mdgomareobas: fasebi ufro
swrafad izrdeba, vidre xelfasebi, es ki moTxovnasa da miwodebas Soris
Tanafardobis darRvevis umTavresi mizezi xdeba.
inflaciis mizezebs Soris mTavaria iseTi makroekonomikuri
proporciebis darRveva, rogoricaa wonasworoba gadaxdisunarian
moTxovnasa da Sesabamisi moculobis realur moxmarebas Soris.
moTxovnismier inflacias iwvevs erToblivi moTxovnis siWarbe
imasTan SedarebiTTU risi uzrunvelyofac SeuZlia warmoebas. imis gamo,

214
rom fasebis zrdas iwvevs ara moTxovnis siWarbe, aramed miwodebis
Semcireba, rac Tavis mxriv sawarmoo danaxarjebis zrdiT aris
ganpirobebuli, e.i. fasebis mudmivi zrda sruliadac ar aris inflaciis
erTaderTi niSani, inflacia SeiZleba moxdes stabiluri fasebis drosac,
Tu ki amave dros miwodeba qronikulad CamorCeba moTxovnas.
inflaciuri movlenebis klasifikacia sxvadasxva niSniT SeiZleba
movaxdinoT. am niSnebidan yvelaze mTavaria inflaciis tempi. am niSniT
inflacia SeiZleba iyos “mcocavi”, “Wenebadi” da hiperinflacia (hiper
berZnuli sityvaa da niSnavs zeviT).
mcocavi inflacia qaRaldis fulis iseT gaufasurebaa,
romelic nela, SedarebiT SeumCneblad mimdinareobs, romlia drosac
fasebis saerTo donis mateba Seadgens 10-15%-s. mcocav inflacias TiTqmis
yvela ganviTarebul qveyanaSi aqvs adgili. am dros inflaciis wliuri
tempi meryebs 3-3.5%-is farglebSi.
Wenebadi inflacia aris qaRaldis fulis swrafi tempiT gaufasureba
(fasebis wliuri zrda 20%-ze metia), romelic iwvevs warmoebis
dezorganizacias. am dros mosaxleoba cdilobs Seiqmnas maragi da
moicilos gaufasurebuli fuli.
hiperinflacia aris zeinflacia, am dros fasebis yovelTviuri zrda
50%-s aRemateba. igi xdeba umarTavi, mimoqcevaSi grovdeba bevri fuli,
cxovrebis done mkveTrad ecema, warmoeba ikveceba an saerTod Cerdeba.
amis garda inflacia SeiZleba iyos ERia (romelic kargad Cans
samomxmareblo saqonelsa da sawarmoo resursebze fasebis zrdiT) da
daxuruli (rac gamowveulia sasaqonlo deficitiT da Cans arapirdapir,
warmoebis danaxarjebis gadidebiTa da mogebis TandaTanobiTi SemcirebiT
biznesSi).
rogorc ukve davinaxeT, inflaciis procesi sakmaod rTulia,
rac moiTxovs mis gulmodgined gamokvlevas, amitom inflaciaze momqmedi
procesebis analizi xorcieldeba sxvadasxva ekonomikuri maCveneblebiT,

215
rogorc saerTo erovnul meurneobaTa doneze, ise calkeul sawarmoebis
doneze.
inflaciuri movlenebi da procesebisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia
inerciis kanonebis ZaliT ganviTarebis Camoyalibebul tendenciebis
SenarCuneba amis gamo biznesmenebi awarmoeben nedleulis, saTbobis,
eleqtroenergiis, naxevarfabrikatebis an mTliani mza produqciis winaswar
Sesyidvas, riTac fasTasxvaobiT Rebuloben mogebas. aseT mogebas uwodeben
holdingur mogebas. aseTi saqmiTaa dakavebuli ara marto calkeuli
biznesmeni, aramed specialuri msxvili holdinguri kompaniebi da
korporaciebic. isini umetes SemTxvevebSi, ar floben raime saxis TavianT
sawarmoo potencials da holdinguri operaciebiT mniSvnelovani wili
uWiravT calkeuli firmebis aqciaTa sakontrolo paketSi. Tu davuSvebT,
rom mcocavi inflaciis pirobebSi sawarmoo moxmarebis saqonelze fasebi
yovelwliurad saSualod izrdeba 7 %-iT, anu fasebis indeqsi Seadgens
saSualod 1,07-s. Tu vivaraudebT, rom aseTi tendencia ori weli mainc
gagrZeldeba qveyanaSi, maSin biznesmens 200,0 aTasi laris saqonlis
winaswar SesyidviT SeuZlia erTi wlis Semdeg miiRos holdinguri mogeba
yovel erT larze 7 TeTri (1,07 lars gamoklebuli 1 lari), xolo
mTlianad 200,0 aTasi X 0,07 TeTrze =14,0 aTasi) 14 aTasi lari.
E inflaciis arsebuli tendenciebis gaTvaliswinebiT SesaZlebelia
gamoTvlil iqnas saprognozo maCveneblebi eqstrapolaciuri meTodis
safuZvelze. amasTan gaTvaliswinebul unda iqnas inflaciis saxeebi da
maTi Taviseburebani. kerZod, “mcocavi” inflaciis SemTxvevaSi
prognozirebisaTvis viyenebT wrfivi gantolebas ( y  a0  a1t ), “Wenebadi”

inflaciis SemTxvevaSi paraboluri gantolebas ( y  a0  a1t  a2 t 2 ), xolo

hiperinflaciis dros maCveneblian funqcias ( y  a0 a1 )

t

5.10. inflaciis donisa da dinamikis statistikuri analizi

216
 inflaciis kvlevis msoflio praqtikaSi inflaciis donis saerTo
daxasiaTebisaTvis gamoiyeneba ori maCvenebeli: pirveli, samomxmareblo
fasebis indeqsi, romelic saSualebas iZleva Sefasdes inflaciis done
samomxmareblo bazarze da zomavs im fasebis saSualo cvlilebas,
romelsac qalaqis mosaxleoba ixdis saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
fiqsirebuli kalaTis SesaZenad; dReisaTvis samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi
erTaderTi maCvenebelia, romlis saSualebiTac izomeba qveyanaSi
inflaciis done; meore, mTliani erovnuli produqtis deflatori (mTliani
Sida produqtis deflatori - saqarTveloSi), romelic afasebs inflaciis
dones saxelmwifoSi warmoebuli da moxmarebuli mTliani dovlaTis
mixedviT.
inflaciis done izomeba fasebis indeqsis gamoyenebiT, anu:
I p1  I p 0
Iinf=  100,
I p0

(5.17)

sadac, I inf. - inflaciis done procentulad;

I p1 - saqonlis fasis indeqsia saangariSo periodSi;

I p 0 - saqonlis fasis indeqsia sabaziso periodSi.

mocemuli formula SeiZleba Caiweros asec:

 Ip 
I inf.   1  1  100 .
 Ip 
 0 
magaliTi: Tu I p1  1.07 , I p0  1.03 , maSin inflaciis done Seadgens

 1.07 
  1  100  3.9% .
 1.03 
Mmisi cvlileba uCvenebs, Tu ramdeni procentiT Seicvala inflaciis
done drois mocemul periodSi.
inflaciis sidide ki gaiangariSeba Semdegnairad: (  p - 1)100.

217
 inflaciis erT-erTi Semadgeneli komponentia fuladi masa, romelic
ar aris uzrunvelyofili Sesabamisi raodenobis saqonliTa da
momsaxurebiT. fuladi masis sidide damokidebulia brunvaSi arsebuli
fulis raodenobasa da misi brunvis siCqareze. Teoriulad, fuladi masis
zrdam fulis brunvis Senelebis SemTxvevaSi, SeiZleba ar gamoiwvios
inflacia, magaliTad, Tu gaizrdeba depozitebis saprocento ganakveTebi.
magram praqtikulad, rogorc wesi, saqonliT uzrunvelyofis gareSe fulis
gamoSveba myidvelebs misi (fulis) swrafi realizaciisaken (daxarjvisaken)
ubiZgebs, rac adidebs fulis brunvis siCqares da aZlierebs inflacias.
inflaciis meore Semadgeneli komponenti _ sasaqonlo masis sidide,
damokidebulia mis fizikur moculobasa da saqonlis fasebze. ramdenadac
fuladi da sasaqonlo masebi miiswrafian sabazro wonasworobisaken,
inflaciis saerTo zoma fuladi masisa da fulis brunvis siCqaris
gadidebis pirdapirproporciulia, xolo mudmiv fasebSi gaangariSebuli
sasaqonlo (momsaxurebis) masis (mTliani Sida produqtis) moculobis
ukuproporciulia. amrigad, mTliani Sida produqtis deflatori udris:

n
  m  ,
q
sadac Im aris fuladi masis indeqsi
da igi tolia:

 m  m1 : m0
,
xolo m1 da m0 aris fuladi masa Sesabamisad saangariSo da sabaziso
wels.
 n  n1  n0
, sadac n1 da n0 aris fuladi masis brunvaTa ricxvi saangariSo da
sabaziso wels.
saxelmwifo statistikis mier fuladi masa gaiangariSeba naRdi da
unaRdo fuladi saxsrebis, yvela Semosavlebis jamis (dagrovebis
moculobis gaTvaliswinebiT), Senatanebisa da gadasaxdelebis brunvis

218
mixedviT, xolo sasaqonlo masa – saqonelbrunvisa da momsaxurebis
gayidvis moculobis, saqonlisa da momsaxurebis yidvaze mosaxleobis
fuladi danaxarjebis mixedviT.
sasaqonlo da fuladi masebis Sesabamisobis done fasdeba rigi
maCveneblebis mixedviT. kerZod, aseTebs miekuTvneba: fuladi da sasaqonlo
masebis Tanafardoba statikasa da dinamikaSi; fuladi masisa da fasebis
zrdis tempebis Tanafardoba; Semosavlebisa da fasebis zrdis tempebis
Tanafardoba. aqve unda aRvniSnoT, rom analizisaTvis saWiro informaciul
bazad gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva saxis wyaro, kerZod: saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis fasebis mopoveba xorcieldeba SerCeviTi gamokvlevis
statistikuri meTodiT; samomxmareblo danaxarjebis struqtura saojaxo
biujetis statistikiT regularuli gamokvlevebis safuZvelze;
informacias fuladi masis Taobaze statistikuri organoebi iReben
bankebidan; mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebisa da gasavlebis balansi
saSualebas iZleva ganisazRvros saqonlisa da momsaxurebis SeZenis
danaxarjebi.
inflaciis gasazomad gamoiyeneba agreTve fuladi erTeulis
msyidvelobiTunarianobis indeqsi, romelic gviCvenebs, Tu mocemul
periodSi ramdeniT gaufasurda an gaZlierda (ganmtkicda) fuladi
erTeuli (erovnuli valuta). igi fasebis indeqsis Sebrunebuli
maCvenebelia:
1  p0 q1
I 
I p  p1 q1
(5.18)
magaliTad: fasebis indeqsma 2009 wlis dekembrSi 2008 wlis
dekemberTan SedarebiT Seadgina 115,2%. e. i. fasebi gaizarda 15,2%-iT. es ki
imas niSnavs, rom laris msyidvelobiTunarianoba Semcirda 13,2% - iT.

1
 0,868 (1 - 0,868 )x100 =13,2%.
1,152

219
 umniSvnelovanes ekonomikur maCveneblebze inflaciis procesis
gavlenis analizi sxvadasxva aspeqtSi SesaZlebelia maCvenebelTa sistemis
daxmarebiT, romelic Semdegi jgufebisagan Sedgeba:
1. jamuri makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis deflatori;
2. maCveneblebi, romlebic axasiaTeben Semosavlebze, moxmarebasa da
cxovrebis doneze moqmed cvlilebebs fasebis zrdis Sedegad;
3. maCveneblebi, romlebic axasiaTeben inflaciis zrdis Sedegad
mogebisa da rentabelobis donis cvlilebebs.
makroekonomikur maCveneblebze fasebis zrdis zemoqmedebis
aRmofxvra msoflio statistikur Teorias da praqtikaSi deflirebis sami
sxvadasxva meTodiT xorcieldeba. TavisTavad deflireba ekonomikuri
maCveneblebidan inflaciis gavlenis gamoTiSvis procesia, romlis
ganxorcielebis mizniTac gamoiyeneba deflatorebi. deflatori (laT.
deflecto) ewodeba koeficients, “......romelic gamoiyeneba fulad
gamosaxulebaSi gaangariSebuli ekonomikuri maCveneblebis
gadasaangariSeblad, wina periodis donesTan maTi saerTo mniSvnelamde
dayvanis mizniT. ricxobrivad igi udris fasebis zrdis indeqss2.
erTmagi deflirebis procesSi deflatorebad gamoiyeneba
samomxmareblo fasebis an mTliani Sida produqtis indeqsi (mTliani Sida
produqtis indeqsi _ am maCveneblis saangariSo periodis anu mimdinare
fasebiT gamosaxuli sididisa da imave maCveneblis sabaziso periodis
fasebSi gamosaxuli sidideebis ganayofi). samomxmareblo saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis Rirebulebis indeqs-deflatorisagan gansxvavebiT, mTliani
Sida produqtis indeqs-deflatori asaxavs agreTve Sromis anazRaurebis,
ZiriTadi kapitalis amortizaciis da wminda gadasaxadebis 2 nominaluri
masis cvalebadobas, rac gamowveulia fasebis cvalebadobiT.

1
ekonomikis enciklopediuri leqsikoni, Tsu gamomcemloba, Tb., 2005., gv. 205.
2
aq da sxva adgilebSi wminda gadasaxadebis cnebaSi igulisxmeba saerTo gadasaxadebisa
da subsidiebis sxvaoba.

220
 indeqs-deflatori mTels msoflioSi gaiangariSeba paaSes fasebis
indeqsis formuliT:
 q1 p1
I defl.  ,
 q1 p0
(5.19)
sadac wiladis mricxveli mTliani Sida produqtis Rirebulebaa
saangariSo periodis fasebiT, xolo mniSvneli igive mTliani Sida
produqtis Rirebulebaa sabaziso periodis fasebiT.
imisaTvis, rom gavigoT mSp mimdinare periodis fasebSi, mSp mimdinare
fasebSi unda gavyoT indeqs-deflatorze, e. i.:
 q1 p1
 q1 p0  .
I defl.

(5.20)
aseT gadafasebas ewodeba pirdapiri deflireba.

magaliTi:
saqarTveloSi MmTliani Sida produqtis Rirebulebam, rogorc zemoT
aRiniSna, 2009 wels Seadgina 11621 mln. lari, xolo 2008 wels 9824 mln.
lari. zrdam 118,3%, anu moimata 18,3%-iT. am wlebSi samomxmareblo fasebi
gaizarda 1,082-jer, rac SeiZleba gamoviyenoT indeqs-deflatorad.
maSasadame, 2009 wlis mTliani Sida produqti 2008 wlis fasebSi Seadgens:
11621
 q1 p0   10740,29 mlrd. lars.
1.082
maSasadame, am wlebSi mTliani Sida produqtis realuri moculoba
Semcirda 880,71 mln. lariT.27
ormagi deflirebis meTodi ufro zusti meTodia, radgan igi
iTvaliswinebs dargebis mixedviT fasebis sxvadasxva tendenciebs mTlian
gamoSvebul da moxmarebul nedleulze, masalebze, saTbobsa da sxva
Sualeduri moxmarebis elementebze. dargebis mixedviT warmoebs rogorc

27
saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli 2006. statistikis saxelmwifo departamenti. -
Tb. 2007, gv. 136, 262.

221
produqciisa da momsaxurebis mTliani gamoSvebis, aseve Sualeduri
moxmarebis deflireba anu gadaangariSeba Sesadaris fasebSi (MmTliani
gamoSvebisaTvis deflatorad gamoiyeneba mTliani gamoSvebis fasebis
paaSes indeqsi, xolo Sualeduri moxmarebisaTvis – moxmarebuli
nedleulis, masalebis, saTbobis, naxevarfabrikatebisa da sxvaTa fasebis
deflatori). igi gamoiangariSeba formuliT:

q p  m p
q p 
1 1 1 1
1 0 ,
I fgp I fsm

sadac q p1 0 - mSp damatebuli Rirebuleba mimdinare periodis

sabaziso donis fasebSi;

q p 1 1 - mSp mimdinare fasebSi;

m p 1 1 - Sualeduri moxmareba mimdinare fasebSi;

I fgp - fasis indeqsi gamoSvebul produqciaze;

I fsm - fasis indeqsi Sualedur moxmarebaze.

deflirebis mesame meTodi - es aris mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebis

sabaziso donis eqstrapolaciis meTodi. Pproduqciis fizikuri moculobis
indeqsis safuZvelze eqstrapolaciis Sedegad miiReba mimdinare periodis
mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebis done Sesadar fasebSi, xolo dargobrivi
maCveneblebis jami iZleva mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebis saerTo
moculobas.
aRniSnuli SeiZleba Semdegnairad Caiweros:
 q1 p0
 q1 p0    q0 p0 ,
 q0 p0
(5.21)
sadac  q1 p0 - damatebuli produqciis Rirebulebaa Sesadar
fasebSi;
 q1 p0
- produqciis fizikuri moculobis indeqsia;
 q0 p0

222
  q0 p0 - sabaziso periodis damatebuli Rirebulebaa.

inflaciis donisa da dinamikis erT-erT ZiriTad maCvenebels

warmoadgens `samomxmareblo kalaTis~ da mosaxleobis fuladi
Semosavlebis urTierTdamokidebuleba. igi Semdegnairad gamoiTvleba:

Iinf=
q p
1 1
 100 , (5.22)
D1
sadac Iinf aris inflaciis done procentebSi;

q p -
1 1 sasursaTo produqtebis Rirebuleba;

D1 - mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebi.

mosaxleobis fulad SemosavlebSi Seitaneba mosaxleobis yvela
kategoriis Sromis anazRaureba, premiebi, xelfasze mudmivi danamati da
saSualebebi samivlinebo xarjebze, individualuri samewarmeo
saqmianobidan miRebuli Semosavlebi, uZrav qonebasa da kreditTan
dakavSirebuli operaciebi, pensiebi, stipendiebi da sxva socialuri
transferebi.
inflaciis TvalsaCino maxasiaTebels msyidvelunarianobis
maCvenebeli warmoadgens.
msyidvelunarianobis dinamikis ganzogadebuli maCveneblebi iseTi
SefardebiTi maCveneblebia, romlebic gaangariSebulia saSualo xelfasis
SefardebiT calkeuli konkretuli saqonlis (Sinameurneobebis SerCeviTi
gamokvlevis monacemebidan gansazRvruli) fasze. aseTi maCveneblebi
axasiaTeben saSualo xelfasis msyidvelunarianobis dones da
ganisazRvreba naturalur erTeulebSi (kg., cali da sxv.), rac iZleva
konkretuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis SeZenis moculobis mniSvnelobas
mocemuli wlis fasebis saSualo donis pirobebSi. fasebis zrda ki
Cveulebriv iwvevs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis umetes saxeobebze SeZenis
moculobis Semcirebas.
fasebis zrda da saarsebo minimumis sidide pirdapir proporciul
damokidebulebaSia, e. i. fasebis zrda iwvevs saarsebo minimumis, kerZod

223
mosaxleobis saSualo suladobrivi Semosavlebis, saSualo Tviuri
xelfasis, danamatebis, pensiebis saSualo mniSvnelobaTa Semcirebas.
fasebis cvlilebis gavlenis analizis damoukidebel mimarTulebas
warmoadgens sawarmoebisa da dargebis finansuri maCveneblebis Seswavla.
amitom Cvens mier SerCeul maCvenebelTa mesame jgufs miekuTvneba
inflaciis zrdis Sedegad produqciis warmoebis, mogebisa da
rentabelobis cvlilebis maCveneblebi. Tanamedrove periodSi, roca
qveyanaSi aramomgebiani sawarmoebi sakmaod bevria, aseTi saxis maCvenebelTa
gaangariSebas udidesi mniSvneloba aqvs.
sawarmos, dargis safinanso mdgomareobaze inflaciis gavlenis
gasazomi ZiriTadi maCveneblebia mTlianad sasaqonlo masisa da misi
calkeuli produqtebis fasebis indeqsebi. aseTi maCveneblebis
gasaangariSeblad aucilebelia gamoviyenoT sawarmoebis Semosavlebisa da
gasavlebis, produqciis TviTRirebulebisa da sxva maCvenebelTa Sesaxeb
arsebuli statistikuri monacemebi.
produqciis warmoebis, ZiriTadi kapitalisa da kapitaldabandebebis,
mogebisa (zaralis) da rentabelobis statistikuri maCveneblebi, aseve maT
cvlilebaze moqmedi faqtorebi, ganisazRvreba saangariSo wlis faqtiuri
fasebis mixedviT. amitom dinamikaSi SeswavlisaTvis angariSgebebSi
mniSvnelovan problemas maCvenebelTa Sesadar fasebSi gadayvana
warmoadgens.
warmoebisa da Semosavlebis moculobisa da sawarmoo danaxarjebis
struqturis maCveneblebze inflaciis gavlenis gazomvisaTvis aucilebelia
fasebis indeqsebis sistemis gamoyeneba. kerZod: mogebisa da rentabelobis
faqtoruli analizisaTvis iyeneben fasebis indeqsebis oTx jgufs28. esenia:
1. produqciaze, samuSaosa da momsaxurebaze fasebis cvlilebis
indeqsebi (`gasayidi fasebis~ indeqsebi) _  p (q ) ;

28
Статистика финансов / Под. ред В.Н. Салина. – М.: Финансы и статистика, 2002, с. 580-581

224
 2. nedleulis, masalebisa da saTbobis, e.i. materialur-teqnikuri
saSualebebis fasebis cvlilebis indeqsebi (`Sesyidvis fasebis~
indeqsebi) _  p (m ) ;

3. ZiriTadi fondebis sabalanso Rirebulebisa da kapitaldabandebaTa

cvlilebis indeqsebi _  p (ok ) ;

4. inflaciis Sedegad xelfasis cvlilebis indeqsebi _  F .

inflaciis indeqsebi gaiangariSeba produqciis an danaxarjebis
ucvleli struqturis pirobebSi miRebuli meTodikis mixedviT. Tu
cnobilia finansur Sedegebze moqmedi faqtorebi da fasebis indeqsebi,
maSin SeiZleba ganvsazRvroT mogebasa da rentabelobaze inflaciis
gavlenis zoma.
inflaciuri procesebi mniSvnelovan gavlenas axdens produqciisa
da momsaxurebis warmoebis danaxarjebis yvela elementze. Tumca unda
aRiniSnos, rom danaxarjTa calkeul elementebze fasebis gavlenis
analizi garTulebulia bevri mizeziT, romelTa Soris erT-erTi aris
is, rom materialuri da sxva saxis resursebis gamoyeneba droSi ar
emTxveva maTi Sesyidvis periods. magaliTad, Tu sawarmos gaaCnia
sabaziso periodSi nayidi nedleulisa da masalebis maragebi da maTi
gamoyenebis momentSi saangariSo periodSi maTze fasebi gaizarda, maSin
dgeba problema, ra fasiT unda Sefasdes TviTRirebuleba. am sakiTxis
sxvadasxvagvari gadawyveta aisaxeba mogebis sidideze.

5.11. sadazRvevo bazris statistikuri maCveneblebi

sabazro ekonomikis funqcionireba xdeba bazrebis saSualebiT.

pirobiTad SegviZlia gamovyoT sasaqonlo da finansuri bazari. Cven
SevexebiT finansur bazars, romelic moicavs sadazRvevo bazars, fasiani
qaRaldebis bazars, savaluto bazars, sakredito bazars.

225
ganviTarebuli qveynebisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia sami tipis sadazRvevo
sistema, kerZo sadazRvevo sistema, saxelmwifo sadazRvevo sistema da
Sereuli.
dazRvevis bazris statistikis macvenebelTa sistema moicavs
absolutur sidideebs, SefardebiT sidideebs da saSualo
sidideebs.Aabsoluturi sidideebia: sadazRvevo mindori, sadazRvevo
portfeli, sadazRvevo SemTxveveis ricxvi, dazaralebuli obieqtebis
sadazRvevo Tanxa da a.S.
SefardebiT sidideebs miekuთvneba:
W
Ks   100
Dა) dazRvevis zaralianobis done: Sn
sadac W-anazRaurebeli zaralia;
S n dazaralebulo obieqtebis sadazRvevo Tanxa.

ბ)zaralebis fardobiTi sixSire, romelic gamoiTvleba formuliT:

q
V   100
N
sadac q-zaralebis raodenoba, xolo N-dasazRvevad miRebuli riskebis
raodenoba (xelSekrulebebis raodenoba)
g) sadazRvevo Tanxis done, romelic iangariSeba formuliT:
S
K s  n  100
S
sadac K s sadazRvevo Tanxis donea, xolo dazaralebuli
Sn
obieqtebis sadazRvevo Tanxaa, xolo S yvela sadazRvevo obieqtis
sadazRvevo Tanxa.
d)sadazRvevo anazRaurebis done iangariSeba formuliT:

W
K  100
Pn

sadac W aris anazRaurebeli zarali;

Pm
moziduli jamuri premia.
e) dazaralebuli obieqtebis xvedriTi wili gamoiTvleba formuliT:
n
K n   100
N

226
sadac n aris dazaralebuli obieqtebis, xolo N-dazRveuli obieqtebis
saerTo ricxvi.
v) sadazRvevo SemTxvevebis sixSiris maCvenebeli gamoiTvleba formuliT:

m
Km   100
N
sadac m aris sadazRvevo SemTxvevebis ricxvi, xolo N dazRveuli
obieqtebis ricxvi.
D დazღvevis statistika angariSobs iseT saSualo maCveneblebs,
rogoricaa: premiis moculoba saSualod, romelic modis erT sadazrvevo
obieqtze, zaralis moculoba saSualod, romelic modis erT sadazRvevo
obieqtze da a.S.
zaralis saSualo sidide gaiangariSeba mTlianad anazRaurebul
zaralis SefardebiT zaralebis raodenobasTan, rac formuliT
Semdegnairad SeiZleba iqnes gamosaxuli:
q
v  ;
S
(5.23)
dazRvevis statistika iTvlis minimalur neto-premias. igi miiReba:
zaralebis fardobiTi sixSiris namravliT zaralis saSualo sidideze.
N neto premia warmoadgens sadazRvevo dafarvis TviTRirebulebas. is
gamoiyeneba sadazRvevo gadaxdebis uzrunvelsayofad. bruto-premia ki
aris am momsaxurebis sabazro fasi. masSi gaTvaliswinebulia sadazRvevo
momsaxurebasTan dakavSirebuli yvela sxva xarji. maT Soris
gadasaxadebic.
sadazRvevo saqmianobis analizisas gamoiyeneben iseT terminebs,
rogoricaa neto-tarifi, sadazRvevo tarifi, bruto-tarifi da minimaluri
neto-tarifi. sadazRvevo tarifi miiReba bruto-premiis gayofiT
sadazRvevo Tanxaze.
dazRvevis statistika angariSobs agreTve sadazRvevo riskis SemcirebiT
miRebuli mogebis sidides: gadaxdebis srul odenobas gamoakldeba
gadaxdebi xelSekrulebis vadis gasvlis gamo (miiReba gadaxdebi

227
dazRveulis gardacvalebis SemTxvevaSi). riskobrivi premiis gaTvlil
odenobas gamoakldeba zemoTaRniSnuli, rac faqtiurad riskis
SemcirebiT miRebuli mogebaa.

5.12. savaluto bazris statistikuri maCveneblebi

სavaluto bazarze valutiT vaჭroba xorcieldeba valutis kursiT,

romelic gviCvenebs valutis erTi erTeulis fass gamosaxuls meore
valutiT. სavaluto kurss bazarze gansazRvravs moTxovna miwodeba,
romelic varirebadia, riTac yalibdeba Tavisuflad mcocavi savaluto
kursebi.
სavaluto kursis saxeebia: pirdapiri da Sebrunebuli, kros-kursi,
forvarduli, myidvelis, gamyidvelis, gacvliTi da sxv.
სtatistika angariSobs sasaqonlo jgufebis mixedviT
msyidvelobiTunarianobis paritetis indeqss Semdegi formuliT:

 q a pa
I   100,
(5.24)  q a pb

sadac qa aris ,,a” qveynis sasaqonlo jgufis an mTeli sasaqonlo

produqciis fizikuri moculoba;
qa da pb Sesabamisad ,,a” da ,,b” qveynis fasebia mocemul periodSi.
valutis gacvliTi kursis saxeebia: nominaluri, realuri,
nominalur-efeqturi da realur-efeqturi29.
or periodSi nominaluri gacvliTi kursis dinamikis
dasaxasiaთeblad angariშoben valutis nominaluri gacvliTi kursis
indeqss:

e1 (5.25)
kn 
e0

29
Ddetalurad ix. M.xmalaZeE statistika ekonomikasa da biznesSi. gamomcemloba meridiani.
Tb. 2011, gv. 539-547.

228
sadac e1 ,e0 aris valutis nominaluri gacvliTi kursi Sesabamisad
saangariso da sabaziso periodebSi.
valutis realuri gacvliTi kursis indeqsi aigeba Semdegnairad:

e1 I a (5.26)
K 
e0 I b
sadac I a , I b
aris Sesabamisad saqarTvelosa da aSS-s samomxmareblo
fasebis indeqsebi.

Aan meorenairad: I (5.27)

1
k  a
Kn Ib

Tema 6. cxovrebis donis statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi:

- mosaxleobis cxovrebis done, rogorc statistikis Seswavlis obieqti;

- humanuri ganviTarebis indeqsi da misi ZiriTadi komponentebi; humanuri

ganviTarebis indeqsis gaangariSebis meTodologia;

- Sinameurneobebis statistikuri Seswavla; mosaxleobis Semosavlebisa da

danaxarjebis statistikuri maCveneblebi;

- mosaxleobis diferenciaciis maCveneblebi cxovrebis donis mixedviT; k. jinis

koeficientis gamoyeneba;

- samomxmareblo kalaTis gaangariSebis meTodika;

- siRaribis statistikuri Seswavla; siRaribis donis, siRrmisa da simwvavis

statistikuri maCveneblebi;

- mosaxleobis jandacvisa da ganaTlebis statistikuri maCveneblebi.

229
 6.1. mosaxleobis cxovrebis done, rogorc statistikis Seswavlis obieqti

mosaxleobis cxovrebis done warmoadgens umniSvnelovanes socialur-

ekonomikur kategorias. ekonomikur literaturaSi ar arsebobs misi erTxmad
miRebuli ganmarteba. Sesabamisad rTuldeba im statistikuri maCveneblebis
gansazRvra, romelTa saSualebiTac unda daxasiaTdes cxovrebis done.
yvelaze gavrcelebulia Sexeduleba, rom cxovrebis done ganisazRvreba im
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis erTobliobiT, romelsac flobs adamiani an adamianTa
jgufi. aris ganmartebac, sakmaod yuradsaRebi, rom cxovrebis done gulisxmobs
rogorc materialuri da sulieri dovlaTis moxmarebis moculobas, aseve maTze
adamianis moTxovnilebis dakmayofilebis xarisxs.
farTo gagebiT mosaxleobis cxovrebis done moicavs cxovrebis pirobebs,
Sromas, yofas, dasaqmebas, dasvenebas da ganaTlebas. am SemTxvevaSi ki laparakoben
`cxovrebis xarisxze~. saerTod ki SeiZleba iTqvas rom cxovrebis doneze
moqmedebs yvela movlena Tu procesi, rasac adgili aqvs qveyanaSi. ufro metic ama
Tu im qveynis mosaxleobis cxovrebis doneze SeiZleba mkveTri gavlena moaxdinos
saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis cvlilebebma, risi magaliTebic arc ise iSviaTia
Soreul, axlo warsulSi Tu dRes.
ase rom cxovrebis donis statistikuri Sefaseba da gazomva garkveulwilad
problemuri Temaa. Tumca dReisaTvis miRebulia, rom cxovrebis donis erT-erT
mniSvnelovan maCvenebels warmoadgens Sinameurneobebis Semosavlebi, romlebic
gansazRvraven maT SesaZleblobebs SeiZinon saqonlis, momsaxurebis da aqtivebis
garkveuli moculoba. Semosavlebi warmoadgenen agreTve danazogebis wyaros,
romlebic SemdgomSi SeiZleba gamoyenebuli iyos sxvadasxva daniSnulebiT:
binebis, miwebis, Zvirfasi liTonebis da sxvaTa SesaZenad, romelTa flobac
adamianebs cxovrebis gaumjobesebis saSualebas aZlevs.
cxovrebis done SeiZleba Seswavlili iqnes sxvadasxva WrilSi:
1. mTeli mosaxleobis mixedviT;
2. qalaqisa da soflis mosaxleobis mixedviT;
3. regionebis mixedviT;
4. socialuri jgufebis mixedviT;
5. Sinameurneobebi Semosavlebis sxvadasxva donis mixedviT;

230
 6. Sinameurneobebi maTSi dasaqmebulTa ricxvis mixedviT.
cxovrebis donis statistikis winaSe dgas rigi amocanebi, romelTagan
ZiriTadia cxovrebis donis da dinamikis daxasiaTeba, mosaxleobis Semosavlebis
da moxmarebis doneebis da struqturis Seswavla, aseve Semosavlebisa da
moxmarebis doneebSi da struqturaSi momxdari cvlilebebis asaxva-analizi,
xangrZlivi moxmarebis sagnebis dagrovebis analizi, siRaribis donis da
sazRvrebis dadgena.
cxovrebis donis statistikis winaSe dasmuli amocanebis gadawyvetas
statistika axdens maCvenebelTa sistemis daxmarebiT, romelTagan yvelaze
mniSvnelovania sakiTxi: SeiZleba Tu ara cxovrebis done daxasiaTdes erTi
romelime ganmazogadebeli maCvenebliT.
sazogadoebis ganviTarebis da Sesabamisad keTildReobis ZiriTad
determinants warmoadgens ekonomika. amitom cxovrebis donis ZiriTad
ganmazogadebel maCveneblad SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes ekonomikis mdgomareobis
maxasiaTeblebi, rogoricaa mTliani Sida produqtis (mSp) moculoba, mTliani
erovnuli Semosavlis, wminda erovnuli Semosavlis da wminda erovnuli
gankargvadi Semosavlis moculoba rogorc absolutur gamosaxulebaSi, ise erT
mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT. qvemoT motanilia Sesabamisi monacemebi da
gaangariSebebi.
cxrili 6.1
cxovrebis donis ganmazogadebeli maCveneblebi
saqarTveloSi 2000-2008 wlebSi1
absolutur sidideebSi erT mcxovrebze
gaangariSebiT, larebSi
(mimdinare fasebSi;

mln. lari)

2000 2005 2008 2000 2005 2008

mTliani Sida produqti 6043,1 11621,0 19074,9 1362 2689 4353

mTliani erovnuli 6274,9 11791,7 18818,0 1415 2729 4292

Semosavali

1
cxrili gaangraiSebulia: saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli. 2006, Tb., 2007, gv. 18,
146.

231
wminda erovnuli 5643,2 10669,4 17060,0 1272 2469 3893
Semosavali

wminda erovnuli 5909,7 11318,9 18656,6 1332 2619 4257

gankargvadi Semosavali

rogorc cxrilSi motanili monacemebidan Cans, mTliani Sida produqti

saqarTveloSi 2000-2008 ww. gaizarda 3,2-jer, xolo erT mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT
_ 3,2-jer.
Tu: Q-Ti aRvniSnavT mTlian Sida produqtis da erovnuli Semosavlis
maCveneblebs mocemuli wlisTvis;
S-iT mosaxleobis saSualo ricxovnobas amave wlisTvis, maSin erT
mcxovrebze mTliani Sida produqtis da erovnuli Semosavlis moculoba
X gaiangariSeba, rogorc
QQ
X = .
S
(6.1)
aRniSnuli ganmazogadebeli maCveneblebis arsebiT nakls warmoadgens is
garemoeba, rom isini Seicaven iseT elementebs, romlebic pirdapir ar arian
dakavSirebuli cxovrebis donesTan. magaliTad mSp moicavs armiis, policiis,
saxelmwifo aparatis da a.S. Senaxvis xarjebs. amitom zogierTi ekonomisti
sruliad marTebulad gvTavazobs zemoTmotanil makroekonomikur maCveneblebTan
erTad visargebloT CvilTa mokvdaobis da axladdabadebulis sicocxlis
mosalodneli saSualo xangrZlivobis maCveneblebiT. am maCveneblebis upiratesoba
isaa, rom maTSi koncentrirebulad aisaxeba qveynis cxovrebis ekonomikuri,
samedicino, ekologiuri da a.S. saerTo jamSi raodenobrivi da xarisxobrivi
mxare. Tu am TvalsazrisiT mivudgebiT, 2000-2008 wlebSi cxovrebis done
saqarTveloSi dadebiT cvlilebas ganicdis, ramdenadac CvilTa mokvdaobis
koeficienti 2000-2008 ww. 22,5‰--dan mcirdeba 17,0‰--mde,30 rac dadebiTi movlenaa.
imavdroulad sicocxlis mosalodneli saSualo xangrZlivoba 2000-2008 wlebSi
71,3 wlidan izrdeba 74,2 wlamde.31

30
www.statistics.ge
31
www.statistics.ge

232
 cxovrebis donis maxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba agreTve realuri xelfasis
indeqsi an TviT realuri xelfasi, romelic miiReba nominaluri xelfasis
gayofiT samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsze. amave rangis maCvenebels miekuTvneba
laris msyidvelobiTi unarianobis indeqsi, romelic fasebis indeqsis Sebrunebul
sidides warmoadgens. Tanamedrove pirobebSi cxovrebis donis amsaxvel erT-erT
ganmazogadebel maCveneblad miCneulia samomomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi (sfi).
saqarTvelos statistikis mier is gaiangariSeba rogorc ori periodis fasebis
saSualo donis Tanafardoba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis fiqsirebuli kalaTis
mixedviT, romelsac SeiZens qalaqis mosaxleoba. saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
fasebi, romlebic gamoiyeneba sfi-s gamosaTvlelad, miiReba fasebze SerCeviTi
statistikuri dakvirvebiT. samomxmareblo kalaTSi Sedis 311 dasaxelebis
saqoneli da momsaxureba.32 moxmarebis struqtura (indeqsis wonebi – moxmarebuli
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moculoba anu q) miRebulia Sinameurneobebis
gamokvlevaTa safuZvelze. samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi gamoiTvleba
laspeiresis indeqsiT.
p1q 0
Jp = ,
p0 q 0
(6.2)
sadac Jp _ aris samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi;

P - calkeuli saxeobis saqonlis da momsaxurebis fasi an tarifi

mimdinare da sabaziso periodebSi;
q 0 _ SeZenili calkeuli saqonlis da momsaxurebis moculoba
sabaziso periodSi.
Tu cxovrebis dones saqarTveloSi SevafasebT sfi-T, aRmoCndeba, rom 2008
wels man Seadgina 110,0%, rac saqarTveloSi 2007-2008 wlebSi fasebis 10,0%-iT
matebas moaswavebs, Sesabamisad ki – cxovrebis donis gauaresebas.
Tu cxovrebis dones davaxasiaTebT nominaluri da realuri xelfasiT,
aRmoCndeba Semdegi: nominaluri xelfasi saqarTveloSi 2000 w. Seadgenda 72,3
lars, xolo 2008 wels – 535 lars. sfi Sesabamisad Seadgenda – 2000 w. – 104,6%,
2008 w. – 110,0%. e. i. realuri xelfasi tolia:

32
sfi-s formirebaSi monawileobs 282 dasaxelebis saqoneli da momsaxureba.

233
 72, 3
2000 w.  69, 1 laris;
1, 046

535
2008w.  486,4laris
1,1
statistikaSi sfi cnobilia aseve rogorc inflaciis maxasiaTebeli
mniSvnelovani ekonomikuri maCvenebeli. is, rom sfi 2000 w. Seadgens 104,2%, xolo
2008 w. – 110,0%, TavisTavad metyvelebs saqarTveloSi inflaciis donis zrdaze.
Tu damatebiT argumentebs moviSveliebT, aRmoCndeba, rom SedarebiT dabali
inflaciis pirobebSi, 2000 wels,. realuri xelfasi Seadgens nominaluri
xelfasis 95,6% (69,1 : 72,3  100  95, 6%), xolo SedarebiT maRali inflaciis
pirobebSi,
2008 w. – 90,9% ( 486,4 : 535  100  90,9% ).
cxovrebis dones axasiaTeben kidev Semdegi indeqsebiT:
_ cxovrebis Rirebulebis indeqsiT, romelic warmoadgens samomxmareblo fasebis
harmoniul indeqss da gaiangariSeba formuliT:

Ip 
q p 1 1
, (6.3)
1
i q p 1 1

sadac i _ aris calkeuli saxeobis produqciis da momsaxurebis fasis an

tarifis individualuri indeqsi.
_ mosaxleobis msyidvelobiTi unarianobis indeqsi, romelic samomxmareblo
indeqsis Sebrunebuli sididea. kerZod:
1
1 i q p 1 1
I  , (6.4)
I sfi. q p 1 1

sadac aRniSvnebi igivea rac 6.3 formulaSi.33

6.2. humanuri ganviTarebis indeqsi da misi gaangariSebis meTodologia

33
formula 12.8 aris laris msyidvelobiTi unarianobis indeqsi.

234
 gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis ganviTarebis programis specialistebis
jgufis mier 1998w. moxsenebaSi – adamianis ganviTarebis Sesaxeb (oqsfordi, 1998)
SemoTavazebuli iqna cxovrebis donis erTiani agregirebuli maCvenebeli _
`adamianuri potencialis ganviTarebis indeqsi~, romelsac kidev uwodeben
humanuri ganviTarebis indeqss (hgi).
hgi warmoadgens sami indeqsis saSualo ariTmetikuls, romlebic asaxaven
cxovrebis donis umniSvnelovanes aspeqtebs; rogoricaa:
1. sicocxlis mosalodneli saSualo xangrZlivoba axlad dabadebulisTvis;
2. mosaxleobis ganaTlebis miRweuli done;
3. mSp moculoba erT mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT, gamosaxuli aSS dolarebSi.
TiToeuli komponentis indeqsi gamoiTvleba formuliT:

Xi  X i min
J  ,
Xi max - Xi min
(6.5)
sadac Xi - aris ì-ri maCveneblis faqtobrivi mniSvneloba;

Xi max da Xi min - i-ri maCveneblis maqsimaluri da minimaluri

mniSvnelobebi Sesabamisad.
gamovTvaloT hgi saqarTvelosTvis 2000 da 2008 wlebisTvis. pirveli
maCvenebelia axladdabadebulisTvis sicocxlis mosalodneli saSualo

xangrZlivobis indeqsi, J1, romlis minimalur mniSvnelobad, Xi

min
-dRevandel

msoflioSi miRebulia 25 weli, xolo maqsimalur mniSvnelobad - Xi - 85 weli.

max

sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivoba saqarTveloSi - Xi 2000 w. Seadgenda 71,3

wels, 2008 w. – 74,2 wels.

CavsvaT formulaSi Sesabamisi mniSvnelobebi da miviRebT;
71, 3  25 46, 3
J1 (2000 w.) =   0, 77
85  25 60
74,2  25 49,2
J1 (2008 w.)    0,82
85  25 60
rogorc vxedavT, sicocxlis mosalodneli saSualo xangrZlivobis indeqsi
0,77-dan gaizarda 0,82-mde.

235
 ganaTlebis miRweuli donis indeqsi J2 miiReba rogorc 15 wlis da ufrosi

asakis mosaxleobis wera-kiTxvis indeqsis 2/

3-is da yvela safexuris (dawyebiTi,
saSualo, saSualo-specialuri da umaRlesi) saswavlo dawesebulebebSi
moswavleTa xvedri wilis indeqsis 1/3-is jami.
jer gamovTvaloT ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis wera-kiTxvis indeqsi i2.1.
X min miiReba 0, xolo Xmax - 100% tolad, rac imas niSnavs, rom wera-kiTxvis
maCvenebeli meryeobs 0-dan 100%-is farglebSi.
mosaxleobis 2002 wlis sayovelTao aRweris monacemebiT wera-kiTxvis
maCvenebelma saqarTveloSi Seadgina 99,6%. maSin Sesabamis formulaSi CasmiT wera-
kiTxvis indeqsi i 2.1 tolo iqneba:

i 2.1

99, 6  0 99, 6
=   0, 996
100  0 100
indeqsi 0,996 erTi da igive iqneba 2000 da 2008 wlisTvis ramdenadac es
maCvenebeli miiReba mxolod mosaxleobis aRweriT.

moswavleTa xvedri wilis indeqsi i 2.2 aseve miRebulia, rom meryeobs 0-dan

100% farglebSi. moswavleTa xvedri wili iangariSeba 24 wlamde asakis

mosaxleobis mimarT. 2000 wels 0-24 wlis mosaxleoba saqarTveloSi Seadgenda
1637,6 aTass, xolo moswavleTa ricxvi yvela donis saswavlebelSi 976,9 aTass.
2005 wlisTvis monacemebi Sesabamisad Seadgens 1481,3 aTass da 830,0 aTass. am

monacemebze dayrdnobiT gaviangariSebT moswavleTa xvedriT wils - i 2.2.

976, 9
2000 wlisTvis i 2.2   0, 596
1637, 6

830,0
2008 wlisTvis i22   0,560
1481,3

amis Semdeg ganaTlebis miRweuli donis indeqsi J2 gamoiTvleba formuliT;

J2 = i 2
2.1 • /3 + i 1
2.2 • /3.

(6.6)

Sesabamisi monacemebis mocemul formulaSi CasmiT miviRebT:

236
 J2 (2000 w.) = 0,996 • 2/3 +0,596 • 1/3 = 0,664 + 0,2 = 0,864

J2 (2008 w.) = 0,996 • 2/3 +0,560 • 1/3 = 0,664 + 0,186 = 0,850

rogorc vxedavT mocemuli indeqsebis mniSvnelobebi garkveulad mcirdeba.

mSp-s realuri moculobis indeqsis J3-is gamosaTvlelad saWiroa mSp-s

moculoba erT mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT erovnul valutaSi gadaangariSebuli

iqnes aSS dolarebSi. mSp-s moculoba saqarTveloSi erT mcxovrebze
gaangariSebiT 2000 wels Seadgenda 1362 lars, xolo 2008 wels 4348 lars.
saqstatis monacemebiT dolaris kursi larTan mimarTebaSi 2000 wels Seadgenda
1,9754, xolo 2008 wels – 1,4902-s.
Sesabamisad mSp-sP moculoba erT mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT gamosaxuli
larebSi, dolarebSi gadaiangariSeba Semdegnairad.
1362
2000 w.  689 dolars;
1, 9754
4348
2008 w.  2918 dolars.
1,4902
amis Semdeg Sesabamis formulaSi SetaniT gaviangariSebT Sesabamis indeqss.
amasTan Cvens mier gamoyenebuli indeqsi misaRebia im SemTxvevaSi, Tu erT
mcxovrebze gaangariSebuli mSp, gamoxatuli dolarebSi, e.i. faqtobrivi Xi ar

aRemateba an udris 5990 aSS dolars. amasTan, Xi mniSvnelobad miRebulia 100

min

dolari, xolo Xi - 5448 dolari.

max
Sesabamisi gamoTvlebiT miviRebT:
689  100 589
I 3 (2000w. )    0,11 ;
5448  100 5348

2918  100 2818

I 3 (2008w. )    0,527 .
5448  100 5348

rogorc vxedavT, indeqsi 4,8-jer gaizarda.

mocemuli indeqsebis gamoTvlebis Semdeg hgi gamoiTvleba rogorc am
indeqsebis saSualo ariTmetikuli:

237
 J 1+ J 2 + J 3
J = .
3
(6.7)
Seabamisi monacemebis SetaniT miviRebT:
0,77  0,864  0,11
I 2000w.   0,581 e.i. 58,1%;
3
0,82  0,746  0,527
I 2008w.   0,698 e.i. 69,8%;
3
rogorc vxedavT, rva wlis ganmavlobaSi hgi saqarTveloSi 58,1-dan gaizarda
69,8%-mde, rac mTlianad mSp warmoebis zrdaze modis da uaxloes momavalSi
indeqsis zrdas mis xarjze unda velodoT, ramdenadac sicocxlis xangrZlivobis
zrda sakmaod rTulia, xolo moswavleTa xvedri wilis zrda ki SezRudulia
Sesabamisi asakobrivi kontingentiT. imavdroulad, unda gaviTvaliswinoT, rom
ganaTlebis indeqsi 2000-2008 wlebSi ara Tu gaizarda, aramed piriqiT, 0,864-dan
Semcirda 0,746-mde, e.i. 11,8%-iT.
2010 wels hgi-is gaangariSebis meTodologiam mniSvnelovani cvlilebebi
ganicada, amitom aRniSnuls “axali meTodologiis” saxeliT moixsenieben.

axali meTodologiiT:

LE  20
1. sicocxlis xangrZlivobis indeqsi (LEI) =
63.2
LE – sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobaa axalSobilTaTvis, Tu maTi
sicocxlis ganmavlobaSi SenarCunebuli iqneba dabadebisas arsebuli
asakobrivi mokvdaobis tendenciebi;

MYSI  EYSI
2. ganaTlebis indeqsi (EI) =
0.951

MYS
2.1 swavlis saSualo xangrZlivobis indeqsi (MYSI) =
13.2

MYS – 25 wlis da zeviT asakis mosaxleobis mier mTeli sicocxlis

ganmavlobaSi miRebuli ganaTlebis xangrZlivobaa ganaTlebis TiToeuli
safexuris Teoriuli xangrZlivobis gaTvaliswinebiT(wlebSi);

238
 EYS
2.2 swavlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis indeqsi (EYSI) =
20.6

EYS – saskolo asakis bavSvis swavlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba, Tu misi

sicocxlis manZilze SenarCundeba ganaTlebis miRebis mimdinare
tendenciebi;

ln(GNIpc)  ln(163)
3. Semosavlebis indeqsi (II) =
ln(108211)  ln(163)

GHIpc – qveynis mTliani erovnuli Semosavali erT sul mosaxleze

msyidvelunarianobis paritetebiT, aSS dolari.

saboloo saxiT ki, hgi Semdegi saxiT Caiwereba:

HDI  3 LEI  EI  II

hgi maqsimaluri mniSvneloba Teoriulad SeiZleba iyos 100,0%, rac niSnavs,

rom sazogadoebam mTlianad gamoavlina Tavisi potencialuri SesaZleblobebi.
indeqsis mniSvneloba saqarTveloSi 2008 w. – 69,8% niSnavs, rom qveyanas Tavisi
adamianuri potencialis 30,2% realizebuli ara aqvs (100 - 69,8 = 30,2). 2007 wels
Jurnalma ekonomistma (The Economist) gamoaqveyna cxovrebis xarisxiT msoflioSi
pirvel adgilze myofi oci qveyana. reitingi eyrdnoba adamianuri ganviTarebis

indeqsis mniSvnelobas.
cxovrebis xarisxis mixedviT samoTxed dedamiwaze miCneulia norvegia,
romelmac reitingSi daikava pirveli adgili. meore da mesame adgils ikaveben
islandia da avstralia. meoce adgili daikava axalma zelandiam. oceulSi
Sevidnen aseve Svecia da dania, romlebic tradiciulad cnobili arian cxovrebis
maRali xarisxiT. aSS reitingSi ikavebs merve adgils.
zemoTganxiluli cxovrebis donis ganmazogadebel maCveneblebs didi
mniSvneloba aqvT, magram srulad ver axasiaTeben cxovrebis dones, ramdenadac
cxovreba gacilebiT mravalaspeqtiania, rac moiTxovs sxva maCveneblebis
gamoyenebasac. cxovrebis donis maxasiaTebeli maCvenebelTa sistema gaerom
SeimuSava 1960 wels, romelic gadamuSavebuli saxiT bolo variantad
warmodgenili iqna 1978 wels da moicavs maCvenebelTa 12 jgufs:
1. Sobadoba, mokvdaoba da sxva demografiuli maCveneblebi;

239
 2. cxovrebis sanitarul-higienuri pirobebi;
3. sasursaTo saqonlis moxmareba;
4. sabinao pirobebi;
5. ganaTleba da kultura;
6. Sromisa da dasaqmebis pirobebi;
7. mosaxleobis Semosavlebi da xarjebi;
8. cxovrebis Rirebuleba da samomxmareblo fasebi;
9. satransporto saSualebebi;
10. dasvenebis organizacia;
11. socialuri uzrunvelyofa;
12. adamianis Tavisufleba.
amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi SemuSavebuli maCvenebelTa sistema
iTvaliswinebs cxovrebis donis iseT sakiTxebsac, rogoricaa: garemos dacva,
erovnuli Tavdacva da moqalaqeTa samarTlebrivi dacva.1

6.3. mosaxleobis Semosavlebis statistikuri maCveneblebi

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis statistika axasiaTebs Semosavlebis absolutur

moculobas, Semosavlebis dones, dinamikas da struqturas.
Semosavlebis absoluturi moculoba an kidev mosaxleobis mTliani
Semosavlebi warmoadgens saqarTvelos mosaxleobis mier fulad erTeulebSi
gamoxatul Semosavlebis mTlian Tanxas. mocemuli maCvenebeli gamoiTvleba
saSualod TveSi, kvartalSi an wlis ganmavlobaSi. mosaxleobis mTliani
Semosavlebi Sedgeba fuladi da arafuladi Semosavlebisgan, romlebic Tavis
mxriv iyofa sxvadasxva saxeebad. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis mTliani Semosavlebis
moculoba da struqtura qalaqisa da soflis mixedviT 2008 wlisTvis, saSualod
TveSi motanilia qvemoT, cxril 6.3-Si.
cxrili 6.2
saqarTvelos mosaxleobis mTliani Semosavlebis moculoba
da struqtura qalaqisa da soflis mixedviT 2008
wlisTvis saSualod TveSi2 (mln. lari)

1
daviT kbilaZe. socialur-ekonomikuri statistika. Tb., 2005, gv. 246-247

240
 saerTo moculoba struqtura
mln. lari
procentulad

qalaqi
so
nnnnsofeli sul qalaqi sofeli sul

fuladi Semosavlebi da
245,7 135,8 381,5 81,0 57,0 70,4
transfertebi

daqiravebuli Sromidan 132,7 34,8 167,5 43,7 14,6 30,9

TviTdasaqmebidan 39,5 13,8 53,3 13,0 5,8 9,8

soflis meurneobis
2,2 28,4 30,6 0,7 11,9 5,7
produqciis gayidvidan

qonebidan (gaqiravebidan,
2,5 1,0 3,4 0,8 0,4 0,6
procenti anabridan)

pensiebi, stipendiebi,
29,5 34,1 63,5 9,7 14,3 11,7
daxmarebebi

ucxoeTidan miRebuli
13,1 6,4 19,5 4,3 2,7 3,6
gzavnilebi

axloblebisagan miRebuli
26,4 17,3 43,7 8,7 7,3 8,1
fuli

arafuladi Semosavlebi 13,7 73,6 87,3 4,5 30,9 16,1

Semosavlebi sul 259,4 209,4 468,8 85,5 87,9 86,5

sxva fuladi saxsrebi 44,1 28,8 72,9 14,5 12,1 13,5

qonebis gayidvidan 8,4 2,1 10,5 2,8 0,9 1,9

fulis sesxeba an
35,7 26,7 62,4 11,8 11,2 11,5
danazogis gamoyeneba

fuladi saxsrebi, sul 289,8 164,6 454,4 95,5 69,1 83,9

fuladi da arafuladi
303,5 238,2 541,8 100,0 100,0 100,0
Semosavlebi, sul

2
saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi 2008. statistikuri krebuli. Tb., 2009. gv. 28-31.

241
 rogorc vxedavT 2008 wels qalaqisa da soflis mosaxleobis mTliani
Semosavlebis absoluturi maCveneblebi, Sesabamisad – 303,5 da 238,2 milioni lari
erTmaneTisgan 65,3 milioni lariT gansxvavdeba. aseve mniSvnelovani gansxvavebebia
qalaqisa da soflis mosaxleobis Semosavlebis struqturaSi. kerZod, qalaqis
mosaxleobis Semosavlebis mniSvnelovani Semadgenelia Semosavali daqiravebuli
Sromidan (43,7%) da TviTdasaqmebidan (13,0%), maSin rodesac soflis mosaxleobis
Semosavlebi ZiriTadad yalibdeba soflis meurneobis produqciis gayidvebidan
(11,9%) da arafuladi Semosavlebidan (30,9%). saqstati arafulad SemosavlebSi
angariSobs – sakuTari moxmarebisaTvis warmoebul, humanitaruli daxmarebiT an
axloblebisagan usasyidlod miRebuli produqciis Rirebulebas, gamoTvlils
gansaxilavi periodis saSualo fasebiT.
Semosavlebis struqturis analizi kidev erT damafiqrebel garemoebaze
migviTiTebs. saqme isaa, rom qonebis gayidva, fulis sesxeba an danazogis
gamoyeneba samomxmareblo xarjebis gawevis mizniT – saqarTvelos mosaxleobis
Semosavlebis 13,5% Seadgens, rac sakmaod uaryofiT maCvenebels warmoadgens, Tu
gaviTvaliswinebT, rom gaeros mier 1993 wels miRebul erovnul angariSTa
sistemaSi Semosavlis gaangariSebisas is eyrdnoba ingliseli ekonomistis
j.xiksis gansazRvras – Semosavali esaa maqsimaluri Tanxa, romelic SeiZleba
daixarjos moxmarebaze garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi im pirobiT, rom
sameurneo subieqtis aqtivebi amave periodSi ar Semcirdeba. ra Tqma unda, qonebis
gayidva, fulis sesxeba da danazogis gamoyeneba niSnavs sakuTari kapitalis
Semcirebas. Sesabamisad 2008 wlisTvis saqarTvelos mosaxleobis saSualoTviur
Semosavals 541,8 milions rom gamovakloT aRniSnuli 13,5%, e.i. fulad
gamosaxulebaSi 72,9 milioni lari, am gziT koreqtirebuli Semosavlis
maCvenebeli 541,8 milioni laridan Semcirdeba 468,9 milion laramde.
mosaxleobis Semosavlebis dones gvixasiaTebs Semosavlebis moculoba erT
mcxovrebze da/an erT Sinameurneobaze gaangariSebiT, larebSi.
am mizniT Semosavlis moculoba gaiyofa erT SemTxvevaSi mosaxleobis
saSualowliur ricxvze, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi Sinameureobebis ricxvze.
Sesabamisi monacemebi motanilia cxrilSi.
cxrili 6.3

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis mTliani Semosavlebis donis da

242
 dinamikis maCveneblebi 1997-2008 wlebSi saSualod TveSi1

Semosavlebi larebSi procentulad 1997 welTan

wlebi erT erT maCvenebeli maCvenebeli erT

mcxovrebze Sinameurneobaze Sinameurneobaze
gaangariSebiT gaangariSebiT erT
mcxovrebze

1997 55 197 100,0 100,0

1998 58 203 105,5 103,0

1999 63 222 114,5 112,7

2000 61 231 111,0 117,3

2001 63 242 114,5 122,8

2002 77 289 140,0 146,7

2003 80 302 145,5 153,3

2004 85 320 154,5 162,4

2005 92 347 167,3 176,1

2008 146 537 266,2 272,6

rogorc vxedavT mosaxleobis saerTo Semosavlebis maCvenebeli erT

mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT 1997-2008 wlebSi 55 laridan gaizarda 146 laramde, e.i.
266,2%-iT, xolo erT Sinameurneobaze gaangariSebiT _ 197 laridan 537 laramde,
e.i. 272,6%-iT. Semosavlebis donis zrdis tempebi cxrilSi gaangariSebulia
sabaziso xerxiT, Tumca maTi gaangariSeba SeiZleba jaWvuri xerxiTac.
Semosavlebis donis maCveneblebi gaiangariSeba rogorc mTliani
Semosavlebis, aseve fuladi da arafuladi Semosavlebis da maTi Semadgeneli
nawilebis mixedviT.

1
cxrili Sedgenilia: saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi 2004-2005. Tb., 2005, gv. 59-60.
saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi 2008. Tb., 2009, gv. 29-30.

243
 mosaxleobis Semosavlebis mixedviT ganawilebis dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba
rigi maCveneblebi, rogoricaa: mosaxleobis Semosavlebis ganawileba deciluri
jgufebis mixedviT, mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis deciluri
koeficienti, fondebis koeficienti, Semosavlebis koncentraciis koeficienti
(jinis koeficienti), modaluri da medianuri Semosavali da sxv.
mosaxleobis Semosavlebis ganawileba deciluri jgufebis mixedviT,
gulisxmobs mosaxleobis dayofas 10 jgufad. pirvel jgufSi gaerTianebulia
yvelaze dabali Semosavlebis mqone mosaxleobis Semosavlebi, xolo meaTe
jgufSi yvelaze maRali Semosavlebis mqone mosaxleobis Semosavlebi. aseT
jgufebs ewodeba deciluri jgufebi, anu 10 nawilad dayofili jgufebi.
2005 wels saqarTveloSi saSualod TveSi mosaxleobis yvelaze dabali, 1-li
jgufis fuladi Semosavlebi Seadgenda 2,1 milion1 lars, anu mTeli mosaxleobis
Semosavlebis 0,8%, xolo yvelaze Semosavliani me-10 jgufis Semosavlebi – 107,1
milions, anu Semosavlebis 39,3%. rogorc vxedavT Tanafardoba yvelaze
Semosavlian me-10-e jgufsa da yvelaze dabalSemosavlian jgufebs Soris
absolutur sidideebSi gamoisaxeba rogorc 51:1-Tan, xolo fulad SemosavlebSi
xvedri wilis mixedviT- rogorc 49:1-Tan.
sainteresoa imis aRniSvna, rom yvelaze dabalSemosavliani jgufis
Semosavlebis 62,5% modis pensiebze, stipendiebze da daxmarebebze, maSin rodesac
yvelaze maRalSemosavlian jgufSi mocemuli muxli mxolod 3,0% Seadgens. am
jgufSi Semosavlebis 66,6% 2005 wels modis: daqiravebul Sromaze,
TviTdasaqmebaze, fulis sesxebaze da danazogis gamoyenebaze.
mosaxleobis ganawileba (struqtura) fuladi Semosavlebis mixedviT
decilur jgufebSi saqarTveloSi 2000-2005 wlebSi mocemulia cxrilSi.

cxrili 6.4.

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis ganawileba deciluri jgufebis

mixedviT saqarTveloSi 2000-2005 wlebSi.1 (%)

1
am maCveneblebSi ar Sedis arafuladi Semosavlebi.
1
cxrili Sedgenilia: d. kbilaZe. socialur-ekonomikuri statistika. Tb., 2005. gv. 236,
saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004-2005. Tb., 2005. gv. 97-98

244
mosaxleobis
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
jgufebi

I 1,0 1,2 0,9 0,9 0,6 0,8

II 2,3 2,8 2,4 2,2 1,9 2,0

III 3,7 3,8 3,5 3,5 3,0 3,1

IV 5,3 5,1 4,7 4,5 4,2 4,3

V 6,5 6,4 5,9 5,9 5,6 5,6

VI 8,2 7,8 7,1 7,3 7,3 7,2

VII 9,8 9,8 8,9 9,1 9,2 9,1

VIII 12,2 11,1 11,2 11,3 12,1 11,9

IX 15,6 15,6 15,7 15,6 16,5 16,7

X 35,5 36,3 39,6 39,8 39,6 39,3

sul 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

saqarTveloSi 2000-2005 wlebSi izrdeba IX da X maRalSemosavliani jgufebis

xvedri wili da mcirdeba danarCeni dabalSemosavliani jgufebis xvedri wili,
rac mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis gaRrmavebaze miuTiTebs.
Semosavlebis diferenciacias vaxasiaTebT Semdegi statistikuri maCveneblebiT:

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis deciluri koeficienti gviCvenebs

ramdenjer aRemateba yvelaze mdidari mosaxleobis 10%-is minimaluri Semosavlebi
yvelaze Raribi 10%-is maqsimalur Semosavlebs2.

d9
Kd = .
d1

(6.8)

2
Экономическая статистика. Под ред. проф. Ю.Н. Иванова, М., 2006, с. 626

245
 sadac K d _ Semosavlebis diferenciaciis deciluri koeficientia;

d9 da d1 _ mecxre da pirveli decili.

igulisxmeba, rom d 9 aris d10 decilis minimaluri Semosavlebi. cxrilSi 6.4-

15,6
is mixedviT aRniSnuli koeficientebi 2000 wels tolia: =15,6, xolo 2005
1
16,7
wels _ =20,9 rac am periodSi saqarTveloSi Semosavlebis diferenciaciis
0,8
gaRrmavebaze miuTiTebs.
fondebis koeficienti gviCvenebs ramdenjer aRemateba yvelaze maRali
Semosavlebis mqone mosaxleobis 10%-is saSualosuladobrivi Semosavali TveSi
yvelaze dabali Semosavlebis mqone 10%-is analogiur maCvenebels.1
_
d10
K = 
d1

(6.9)

- 
sadac - d10 da d1 saSualosuladobrivi Semosavalia TveSi Sesabamis
decilur jgufebSi.
_
D
ramdenadac deciluri jgufis saSualo Semosavali d  _
,
S
sadac D _ deciluri jgufis mTliani Semosavalia, xolo S - jgufis
ricxovnoba. amasTan jgufebis ricxovnoba Tanabaria da SerCevis 10%-is tolia,
maSin fondebis koeficienti SeiZleba gamovTvaloT, rogorc:
D10 D1 D10
KD  :  , e.i.
S S D1
(6.10)

deciluri jgufebis mTliani Semosavlebis Tanafardoba, romelic ufro

martivia da igive Sedegs iZleva. Sesabamisi gaangariSebiT 2005 wlisTvis miviRebT:

D10 107,1 mln

KD =   51 : 1 - TTan,
D1 2, 1 mln

1
Экономическая статистика. Под ред. проф. Ю.Н. Иванова, М., 2006, с. 626

246
 rac niSnavs, rom 2005 wels saqarTveloSi yvelaze maRalSemosavliani
adamianebis 10,0%-is saSualosuladobrivi Semosavali TveSi yvelaze dabali
Semosavlebis mqone 10,0%-is analogiur maCvenebels aRemateba 51-jer.
mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis dasaxasiaTeblad erT-erT
mniSvnelovan maCvenebels warmoadgens jinis koeficienti. korado jini iyo (1884-
1965 ww.) XX saukunis erT-erTi gamoCenili statistikosi. misi samecniero
interesebis sferoSi Sedioda Teoriuli da sabalanso statistikis, demografiis,
sociologiis da konkretuli ekonomikis problemebi. Tavisi samecniero
moRvaweobis periodSi Ggamoaqveyna daaxloebiT aTasi mecnieruli naSromi. misi
naSromebi gadaTargmnilia bevr evropul enebze.34
jinis koeficienti an kidev rogorc uwodeben jinis Semosavlebis
koncentraciis koeficienti gvixasiaTebs uTanabrobas mosaxleobis Semosavlebis
da danaxarjebis ganawilebaSi. misi sidide meryeobs 0-dan 1-mde. amasTan rac ufro
metad uaxlovdeba misi mniSvneloba 1-s, miT meti Semosavlebi koncentrirdeba
mosaxleobis calkeuli jgufebis xelSi.
jinis koeficienti gamoiTvleba Semdegi saxiT:

K   pi qi 1   pi 1qi (6.11)

sadac p i aris _ mosaxleobis xvedri wili saSualo Semosavlebis mixedviT,

nazardi jamiT, koeficientebSi;
q i _ Semosavlebis moculobis xvedri wili saSualo Semosavlebis
mixedviT, nazardi jamiT, koeficientebSi.
movitanoT pirobiTi magaliTi.
cxrili 6.5
mosaxleobis ganawileba saSualo Semosavlebis mixedviT

xvedri wili xvedri wilis

Semosa

Semosa
leobi
vali35
ricxo

jgufe

mixedv
dobri

lari)
vlebi
saSua

mosax

(mln.)
vnoba
sual

(mln.
lo

bis

iT
vi

nazardi jami
s

34
Sesavali monografiis: К.Джини. Средные величины. М., 1970. с.7
35
rogorc wesi, mosaxleobis saerTo da saSualo Semosavlebs statistika iZleva
intervalebiT. mag. 50-150 laris, 100-200 laris da a.S. farglebSi. gaangariSebisaTvis
50  150 100  200
vsargeblobT intervalis saSualoTi. mag.  100 lars,  150 lars da
2 2
247
 Semosavlebis

Semosavlebis
mixedviT (pi)
mosaxleobis

mosaxleobis

mixedviT(qi)
jgufebis

jgufebis

jgufebis

jgufebis
mixedviT

mixedviT
1 2 3=1  2 4 5 6 7

100 4,0 400,0 0,238 0,133 0,238 0,133

150 3,5 525,0 0,208 0,175 0,446 0,308

200 3,0 600,0 0,179 0,200 0,625 0,508

220 2,5 550,0 0,149 0,182 0,774 0,690

240 2,0 480,0 0,119 0,160 0,893 0,850

250 1,8 450,0 0,107 0,150 1,0 1,0

sul 16,8 3005,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0

CavsvaT 6.11 formulaSi Sedegebi:

K  (0,238  0,308)  (0,446  0,508)  (0,625  0,690)  (0,774  0,850)  (0,893  1,0) 
 (0,446  0,133)  (0,625  0,308)  (0,774  0,508)  (0,893  0,690)  (1,0  0,850) 
 2,282  2,111  0,171

saqstatis gaangariSebiT jinis koeficienti (indeqsi) saqarTveloSi 2000-2008

wlebSi mTliani Semosavlis mixedviT 0,50-dan Semcirda 0,47-mde e.i. 3%-iT, xolo
fuladi Semosavlebis mixedviT 0,56-dan 0,52-mde, e.i. 4%-iT, rac SemosavlebSi
diferenciaciis gamoTanabrebaze, Tundac sul mcirediT, miuTiTebs. aRniSnuli
daskvna ewinaaRmdegeba Cvens mier deciluri jgufebis mixedviT gakeTebul
daskvnas (cxrili 6.3). amave periodSi Semosavlebis ganawilebis diferenciaciis
gaRrmavebis Sesaxeb. magram ramdenadac jinis koeficienti warmoadgens
ganmazogadebel maCvenebels, unda miviRoT daskvna masze dayrdnobiT, rom 2000-2008
wlebSi saqarTveloSi mainc hqonda adgili, Tumca umniSvnelod, Semosavlebis
mixedviT diferenciaciis gamoTanabrebas. mosaxleobis Semosavlebis iZulebiTi

a.S. gaangariSebis gasamartiveblad saSualo Semosavali erT mcxovrebze movitaneT

pirdapir, intervalebis gareSe.

248
GgaTanabreba socializmis dros adamianebs uxSobda iniciativas, ramdenadac
Semosavlebis garkveuli diferenciacia qmnis konkurentul garemos da
astimulirebs warmoebis zrdas. magram Semosavlebis zRvargadasuli
diferenciacia aseve axSobs iniciativas da zRudavs konkurentul garemos,
ramdenadac adamianebis did nawils ekargeba imis imedi, rom aseT sazogadoebaSi
raime warmatebas miaRwevs. amitom aseT sazogadoebebSi masobrivi xdeba sarCos
mopoveba ZaladobiT.
Cven aqamde ganvixileT mosaxleobis Semosavlebis maCveneblebi saSualod
TveSi da saSualod weliwadSi. aRniSnuli maCveneblebi gamoiTvleba aseve
saSualod kvartalebis mixedviT.
mosaxleobis Semosavlebis donis diferenciacias axasiaTeben aseve modiT da
medianiT.
moda aris Semosavlebis yvelaze gavrcelebuli sidide.
medianuri sidide _ Semosavlebis is sididea, romelic mosaxleobas yofs or
Tanabar nawilad. erT nawils aqvs masze naklebi Semosavlebi, meores – meti.
zemoTmotanili maCveneblebis garda, mosaxleobis Semosavlebs da Sesabamisad
cxovrebis dones axasiaTeben Semdegi statistikuri maCveneblebiT, rogoricaa:
nominaluri Semosavlebi, realuri Semosavlebi, saSualo nominaluri da realuri
xelfasi, saSualo realuri xelfasis msyidvelobiTi unari, minimaluri
Semosavali (saarsebo minimumi), minimaluri pensia da stipendia.
nominaluri Semosavlebi warmoadgens faqtobrivad daricxul Semosavlebs.
aseTis magaliTia daricxuli nominaluri xelfasi. nominalur xelfass
gamoklebuli gadasaxadebi da savaldebulo gadasaxadebi gvaZlevs gankargvad,
saboloo Semosavlebs.
realuri Semosavlebi is saboloo Semosavlebia, riTac SesaZlebelia
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis SeZena.
nominaluri da realuri Semosavlebis donis statistikuri daxasiaTebisaTvis
gaiangariSeben maT moculobas erT mcxovrebze an erT Sinameurneobaze, risTvisac
Sesabamisi maCveneblebi mocemuli wlisTvis gaiyofa mosaxleobis saSualowliur
ricxvze da/an Sinameurneobebis ricxvze.
mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis mniSvnelovan maxasiaTebels warmoadgens
saSualo nominaluri xelfasis da saSualo realuri xelfasis maCveneblebi.
aRniSnuli maCveneblebi SeiZleba gaangariSebuli iqnes ekonomikis dargebis,

249
regionebis da qveynis masStabiT rogorc mTlianad, ise kacebisa da qalebis
mixedviT.
saSualo nominaluri xelfasi gaiangariSeba daricxuli xelfasis fondis
SefardebiT dasaqmebulTa saSualo ricxvTan. maCvenebeli SeiZleba
gaangariSebuli iqnes Tvis, kvartalis, naxevari wlis da mTeli wlis mixedviT.
magaliTad, 2007 wlisTvis saSualo nominalurma xelfasma saqarTvelos
ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulebisTvis Seadgina 368,1 lari, maT Soris: minimaluri _
ganaTlebaSi 153, xolo maqsimaluri - safinanso saqmianobaSi 1014,5 lari, e.i.
ganaTlebaSi dasaqmebulebze 6,6-jer meti. saSualo xelfasi diferencirebulia da
SeiZleba iTqvas adgili aqvs diskriminacias sqesis mixedviT, rac imaSi vlindeba,
rom 2007 wels saSualo xelfasma kacebSi Seadgina 475,6 lari, xolo qalebSi
mxolod 240,2 lari, e.i. 2-jer naklebi.
saSualo realuri xelfasi gaiangariSeba saSualo nominaluri xelfasis
samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsze gayofiT. saSualo nominaluri xelfasi 2007 wels
tolia 368,1 laris, samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi - 111,0%, e.i. 1,11.
368,1lari
saSualo realuri xelfasi 2007 w.   331,6lars.
1,11
saSualo realuri xelfasis msyidvelobiTi unari ganisazRvreba im
raodenobis sasursaTo da arasasursaTo saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moculobiT,
romelTa SeZenac SeiZleba aRniSnuli xelfasiT. magaliTad, 2007 wlis saSualo
realuri xelfasiT, 331,6 lariT, 2007 wels SeiZleboda: 47 kg. saqonlis xorcis (1
kg. fasi = 7 lars), an 66 kg. yvelis (1 kg. fasi = 5 lars), an 414 kg. kartofilis
(1 kg. fasi = 0,8 lars) da a. S. SeZena.

6.4. mosaxleobis moxmarebis (danaxarjebis) statistikuri maCveneblebi

mosaxleobis moxmarebis statistikis amocanebia mosaxleobis moxmarebis

absoluturi moculobis, donis, dinamikis da struqturis Seswavla.

250
 mosaxleobis moxmarebis absoluturi moculoba warmoadgens mosaxleobis
mier gaweuli xarjebis1 mTlian moculobas, gamosaxuls fulad erTeulebSi.
moxmareba moicavs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis SeZenas. masSi mniSvnelovani adgili
ukavia naturiT moxmarebas. moxmarebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis struqturaSi
Sedis samomxmareblo xarjebi kvebis produqtebze, tansacmelsa da fexsacmelze,
saojaxo moxmarebis saqonelze, janmrTelobis dacvaze, eleqtroenergiaze,
ganaTlebaze, kulturaze, dasvenebaze, dazogvaze, gasesxebaze da sxva.
moxmarebis rogorc absoluturi, ise SefardebiTi (donis, dinamikis,
struqturis) maCveneblebi saqarTvelos statistikaSi gaiangariSeba Tveebis,
kvartlebis da mTeli wlis mixedviT, qalaqisa da soflis WrilSi. saqarTvelos
mosaxleobis moxmarebis saerTo moculoba da struqtura 2005 wlisTvis
mocemulia cxrilSi.
cxrili 6.6
saqarTvelos mosaxleobis moxmarebis saerTo moculoba

da struqtura 2008 wels qalaqisa da soflis

mixedviT saSualod TveSi1

struqtura moxmarebis saerTo

moculoba
mln. lari procentulad

1
vgulisxmobT, rom moxmareba mis SeZenaze gaweuli xarjebis ekvivalenturia, e.i. mocemul
paragrafSi ganxilulia samomxmareblo xarjebi.
1
saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2008. Tb., 2009. gv. 43; 46.
6.5 cxrils unda mivceT zogierTi ganmarteba:
1. mTliani xarjebi erT SemTxvevaSi tolia – samomxmareblo fuladi xarjebs (72,1%)
damatebuli arafuladi xarjebi (16,2%) da damatebuli arasamomxmareblo fuladi
xarjebi (11,7%), sul 100,0%.
2. mTliani xarjebi meore SemTxvevaSi tolia:
samomxmareblo xarjebi sul (88,3%) damatebuli arasamomxmareblo fuladi xarjebi
(11,7%), sul 100,0%.
TiToeuli muxlis Semadgeneli moxmarebis saxeebi naprocentebia ara am muxlTan,
aramed cxrilis boloSi moTavsebul mTlian jamTan (xarjebi sul).

251
 qalaqi sofeli sul qalaqi sofeli sul

samomxmareblo fuladi
245,2 144,1 389,3 83,9 58,2 72,1
xarjebi

sursaTze, sasmelze,
106,5 72,5 179,0 36,5 29,2 33,1
Tambaqos nawarmze

tansacmelze da
11,1 6,7 17,9 3,8 2,7 3,3
fexsacmelze

saojaxo moxmarebis
8,5 5,4 13,9 2,9 2,2 2,6
saqonelze

janmrTelobis dacvaze 20,8 17,8 38,5 7,1 7,2 7,1

saTbobsa da
31,3 15,6 46,9 10,7 6,3 8,7
eleqtroenergiaze

transportze 25,2 12,4 39,8 8,6 5,0 7,4

ganaTlebaze, kulturasa
10,8 2,6 13,6 3,7 1,1 2,5
da dasvenebaze

sxva samomxmareblo xarjebi 28,2 9,4 39,7 9,7 3,8 7,3

arafuladi xarjebi 14,0 76,5 87,3 4,8 30,0 16,2

samomxmareblo xarjebi,
250,0 213,2 476,7 85,6 86,0 88,3
sul
arasamomxmareblo fuladi
33,0 30,3 63,4 11,3 12,2 11,7
xarjebi
sasoflo-sameurneo xarjebi 0,9 8,1 9,3 0,3 3,2 1,7
transfertebze 6,2 6,5 12,7 2,1 2,6 2,3
dazogvaze an gasesxebaze 21,3 10,5 31,8 7,3 4,2 5,9
qonebis SeZenaze 4,7 4,9 9,6 1,6 2,0 1,8
fuladi xarjebi sul 278,5 174,2 452,7 95,2 70,0 83,8
xarjebi sul 292,2 247,8 540,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

vinaidan soflis mosaxleobis SemosavlebSi qalaqTan SedarebiT dabalia

fuladi Semosavlebis xvedri wili, Sesabamisad dabalia fuladi xarjebis
rogorc absoluturi ise SefardebiTi sidide. kerZod, qalaqad moxmarebis mTlian
moculobaSi fuladi xarjebi Seadgens 95,2%, xolo arafuladi xarjebi

252
(naturaluri moxmareba) – 4,8%. soflis mosaxleobaSi maCveneblebi Sesabamisad
70,0 da 30,0 procentis tolia.
moxmarebis struqturidan yuradRebas iqcevs is garemoeba, rom xarjebis 33,1%
midis sursaTze, sasmelze da Tambaqos nawarmze, anu kvebis produqtebze da
mxolod 1,8% qonebis SeZenaze. Tu imasac gaviTvaliswinebT, rom arafuladi
xarjebi, e.i. moxmareba naturiT (sakuTari warmoebis produqcia) Seadgens xarjebis
16,2%, maSin 2008 wels saqarTvelos mosaxleobis mTliani xarjebis 49,3% (33,1% +
16,2%) modis kvebis produqtebze. danaxarjebis igive procentia erTi
Sinameurneobis mixedviT. 2002 wlisTvis aRniSnuli maCvenebeli Seadgenda 48,8%,
2003 wels – 49,4%, 2004 wels _ 50,0%, xolo 2005 wels _ 55,7%. e.i. 2002-2005 wlebSi
danaxarjebis struqturaSi ganuxrelad izrdeba kvebis produqtebis SeZenaze
gaweuli xarjebis xvedri wili, rac migviTiTebs mosaxleobis kidev ufro
gaRaribebis tendenciaze, radgan germaneli statistikosis engelis kanonis
Tanaxmad – ojaxis Semosavlebis zrdis kvalobaze ecema sursaTze gaweuli
xarjebis xvedri wili, daaxloebiT imave doneze rCeba tansacmelze, fexsacmelze,
binaze, gazsa da eleqtroenergiaze danaxarjebis xvedri wili da izrdeba
momsaxurebasa da fufunebis sagnebis SeZenaze danaxarjebis xvedri wili.1 2005-2008
wlebSi xarjebi kvebis produqtebze 55,7%-dan 49,3%-mde Semcirda, rac dadebiTi
tendenciaa.
mosaxleobis moxmarebis dones gvixasiaTebs xarjebis moculoba erT
mcxovrebze da/an erT Sinameurneobaze gaangariSebiT. aRniSnuli maCveneblebis
gasaangariSeblad saWiroa xarjebis moculoba gaiyos erT SemTxvevaSi
mosaxleobis saSualowliur ricxvze, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi Sinameurneobebis
ricxvze. Sesabamisi maCveneblebi motanilia cxrilSi.

cxrili 6.7

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis mTliani xarjebis donis da dinamikis

maCveneblebi 1997-2008 wlebSi, saSualod TveSi36

wlebi xarjebi larebSi procentulad 1997 welTan

1b.gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006. gv. 31

36
cxrili Sedgenilia: saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004_2005. Tb., 2005. gv. 68-69.
saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2008. Tb., 2009. gv. 40-41.

253
 erT erT maCvenebeli maCvenebeli
mcxovrebze Sinameurneobaze erT
gaangariSebiT gaangariSebiT mcxovrebze erT
Sinameurneobaze

1997 79 284 100,0 100,0

1998 74 256 93,6 90,0

1999 83 291 105,1 102,5

2000 85 319 107,6 112,3

2001 84 322 106,3 113,4

2002 96 359 121,5 126,4

2003 95 358 120,3 126,1

2004 100 379 126,6 133,5

2005 102 383 129,1 134,9

2008 146 536 184,8 188,7

rogorc cxrilidan Cans, 1997-1998 wlebSi maCveneblebis Semcirebis Semdeg maT

Tanmimdevrul zrdas aqvs adgili. gansakuTrebiT izrdeba maCvenebeli erT
Sinameurneobaze gaangariSebiT. Semosavali-xarjebis dapirispirebaSi pozitivze
miuTiTebs is garemoeba, rom erT mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT 1997-2002 wlebSi
xarjebi ametebda Semosavlebs TveSi saSualod 20,7 lariT, 2003-2005 wlebSi _
mxolod 13,3 lariT, xolo 2008 wels Semosavlebi da xarjebi gaTanabrda (ix.
cxrili 6.3)
mosaxleobis mimdinare da dagrovili Semosavlebis nawili mimarTulia
xangrZlivi moxmarebis sagnebs SesaZenad. Sinameurneobebis sakuTrebaSi arsebuli
xangrZlivi moxmarebis sagnebs statistikaSi gamoiTvlian yovel 100
Sinameurneobaze an 1000 mcxovrebze. saqarTveloSi 2006 wels yovel 100
Sinameurneobaze modioda:37

macivari 64 fotoaparati 16

37
statistikuri weliwdeuli. 2008. Tb., 2009, gv. 65.

254
 sarecxi manqana personaluri
36 3
kompiuteri

radiomimRebi 13 velosipedi 4

televizori 89 motocikli 1

mtversasruti 17 msubuqi avtomobili 17

sakeravi manqana 36 agaraki 4

firsakravi 2 satvirTo avtomobili 2

videomagnitofoni minitraqtori da
19 2
motobloki

magnitofoni 27 traqtori 1

fortepiano 28

moxmarebis dones gamoiTvlian mTeli mosaxleobis, qalaqisa da soflis da

calkeuli sqesobriv-asakobrivi jgufebis mixedviT, rogoricaa:1
1. skolamdeli asakis bavSvebi 0 _ 6^wlis;
2. mozardi 7 _ 15 wlis;
3. Sromisunariani mamakaci 16 – 64 wlis;
4. Sromisunariani qali 16 _ 59 wlis;
5. sapensio asakis mamakaci 65 welze meti;
6. sapensio asakis qali 60 welze meti.
sasursaTo saqonlis moxmarebis Sesaswavlad statistikaSi gamoiyofa
mosaxleobis 5 jgufi: (Sromis xasiaTis mixedviT)
1. upiratesad gonebrivi SromiT dakavebulebi.,
2. msubuqi fizikuri SromiT dakavebulebi;
3. saSualo simZimis fizikuri SromiT dakavebulebi;
4. mZime fizikuri SromiT dakavebulebi;
5. gansakuTrebiT mZime fizikuri SromiT dakavebulebi.
Sinameurneobebis Semosavlebisa da xarjebis monacemebze dayrdnobiT
SegviZlia SevadginoT mosaxleobis Semosavlebis da xarjebis balansi.
cxrili 6.8

1
daviT kbilaZe. socialur-ekonomikuri statistika. Tb., 2005. gv. 238.

255
 saqarTvelos mosaxleobis Semosavlebis da xarjebis

balansi 2008 wels, saSualod TveSi

Semosavlebi (mln. lari) xarjebi (mln. lari)

1. daqiravebuli Sromidan da 220,8 1. kvebis produqtebze 179,0

TviTdasaqmebidan

2. sof.meurneobis produqciis 30,6 2. tansacmelze da 17,9

gayidvidan fexsacmelze

3.qonebidan (gaqiraveba, 3,4 3. saojaxo moxmarebis 13,9

procenti) saqonelze

4. pensiebi, stipendiebi, 63,5 4. janmrTelobis dacvaze 38,5

daxmarebebi

5. ucxoeTidan miRebuli 19,5 5. saTbobsa da 46,9

gzavnilebi eleqtroenergiaze

6. axloblebisagan miRebuli 43,7 6. transportze 39,8

fuli

7. arafuladi Semosavlebi 87,3 7. ganaTlebaze, kulturasa da 13,6

dasvenebaze

8. sxva fuladi saxsrebi 72,9 8. sxva samomxmareblo 39,7

xarjebi

sul Semosavlebi 541,8 9. arafuladi xarjebi 87,3

10. arasamomxmareblo fuladi

- xarjebi (sasof.sameurneo, 63,4
transfertebi, dazogva,
gasesxeba, qonebis SeZena)

sul xarjebi 540,0

xarjebis metoba +1,8

Semosavlebze

balansi 541,8 balansi 540,0

256
 Cans, rom 2008 wels Semosavlebi aWarbebda xarjebs 1,8 mln. lariT. unda
aRiniSnos, rom 2005 wels xarjebi aWarbebda Semosavlebs 36,5 mln. lariT.38

6.5. siRaribis statistikuri Seswavla

siRaribe da misi masStabi cxovrebis dabali donis maCvenebelia.39 siRaribe

aris Semosavlebis ukmarisoba adamianis materialuri da sulieri
moTxovnilebebis dasakmayofileblad, mis SesaZenad. Tumca Semosavlis garkveuli
sidide erTisTvis SeiZleba iyos sakmarisi, meorisTvis _ arasakmarisi. siRaribis
SemTxvevaSi Semosavlebis ukmarisoba masobrivi movlenaa.

mosaxleobis gaRaribeba saqarTveloSi gasuli saukunis 70-iani wlebidan

daiwyo sabWoTa kavSiris SemadgenlobaSi. kerZod, sabWoTa kavSirSi 1976/80-1986/90
wlebSi mniSvnelovnad Semcirda procentulad ekonomikur maCvenebelTa
saSualowliuri matebis tempebi: mTliani erovnuli produqti _ 4,8%-dan 2,4%-mde,
erovnuli Semosavali _ 4,3%-dan 1,3%-mde, mrewvelobis produqcia 4,4%-dan 2,5%-
mde, da a.S.1

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis Semdgom gaRaribebas xeli Seuwyo sabWoTa

kavSiris daSlam, ramac gamoiwvia mokavSire respublikebs Soris ekonomikuri
kavSirebis gawyveta. gasuli saukunis 90-iani wlebidan saqarTveloSi gamefda
sayovelTao krizisi, romelmac moicva politika, ekonomika, socialuri sistema,
erovnuli urTierTobebi da a.S. saxelisuflo StoebSi dakanonda korufcia,
privatizaciis saSualebiT moxda Taobebis mier Seqmnili da dagrovili
simdidris, aseve miwebis xelSi Cagdeba erTi muWa adamianebis mier, xolo TiTeul
moqalaqes am qonebidan ergo 5 laris Rirebulebis vauCeri. siRaribe yvela
qveyanaSi arsebobs, magram is SefardebiTia. sul sxvaa misi done da Sinaarsi
ekonomikurad ganviTarebul qveynebSi da sul sxva ekonomikurad CamorCenil
qveynebSi.

siRaribis donis gansazRvrisaTvis saWiroa saarsebo minimumis dadgena.

saarsebo minimums moxmarebis fiziologiur normebze (rogorc sasursaTo, ise
38
m. xmalaZe. statistika ekonomikasa da biznesSi. Tb., 2008, gv. 196.
39
b.gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 10
1
b. gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 10

257
arasasursaTo sagnebze da momsaxurebaze) dayrdnobiT gansazRvravs statistikis
departamenti. saarsebo minimumi aris Semosavlebis is done, romelic
uzrunvelyofs im minimaluri dovlaTis da momsaxurebis SeZenas, rac saWiroa
adamianis janmrTelobis da sicocxlis SenarCunebisaTvis. saarsebo minimumi
moicavs danaxarjebs minimaluri raodenobis kvebis produqtebis, arasasursaTo
saqonlis da aucilebeli momsaxurebis SeZenaze. aRniSnuli danaxarjebi moicavs
agreTve gadasaxadebs da savaldebuli gadasaxdelebs.

saarsebo minimumi dgindeba da mosaxleobis uzrunvelyofa xdeba qveynis

socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis donis gaTvaliswinebiT da socialuri
politikis realizaciis erT-erTi mTavari maCvenebelia.

saarsebo minimumi gaiangariSeba:

1. saSualod erT momxmarebelze;

2. Sromisunarian mamakacze;
3. pensionerze; (pensionerebze)
4. bavSvze; (bavSvebze)
5. saSualo ojaxze;
6. erTsulian, orsulian da a.S. eqvs da metsulian ojaxze.
saarsebo minimumi gaiangariSeba qveynis mTeli mosaxleobis, aseve qalebisa da
kacebis mixedviT.
saarsebo minimumi moicavs:
1. gadasaxadebs;
2. samomxmareblo minimums (kalaTas).
samomxmareblo minimumi Sedgeba:
1. sasursaTo minimumisgan; da
2. arasasursaTo saqonlisa da momsaxurebs Rirebulebis jamisgan.
sasursaTo minimumi (kalaTi) gulisxmobs im kvebis produqtebis (sursaTis)
nakrebs, rac, Sesabamisi moxmarebis fiziologiuri normebis, maTi kaloriulobisa
da sabazro fasebis mixedviT, minimalurad mainc saWiroa adamianis fizikuri
arsebobisa da sicocxlisunarianobis SesanarCuneblad. moxmarebis fiziologiur
normebs adgenen Sesabamisi samedicino, Sromisa da sxva samecniero-kvleviTi
institutebi adamianTa asakobrivi, sqesobrivi, cxovrebis bunebriv-klimaturi
pirobebis, zne-Cveulebebis, istoriuli tradiciebis, kulturisa da sxvaTa

258
gaTvaliswinebiT.1 magaliTad, ruseTSi saarsebo minimums angariSoben bunebriv-
klimaturi zonebis mixediTac.
sasursaTo kalaTis Rirebuleba ganisazRvreba normatiuli da statistikuri
meTodebiT. normatiuli meTodi iTvaliswinebs moxmarebis minimalur,
fiziologiur normebs, xolo statistikuri-moxmarebis faqtobriv dones.
moxmarebis rogorc normatiuli, ise faqtobrivi doneebi arsebiTad gansxvavdeba
asakis, sqesis, saqmianobisa da rigi faqtorebis mixedviT. Sesabamisad rogorc
samomxmareblo, ise sasursaTo kalaTis Semadgenloba da Rirebuleba gansxvavdeba
momxmarebelTa sxvadasxva tipisaTvis. amis gamo minimaluri (normatiuli)
sasursaTo kalaTi da misi Rirebuleba ganisazRvreba Sromisunariani
mamakacisaTvis, xolo sxva tipis momxmarebelTa minimaluri sasursaTo kalaTis
Rirebuleba ganisazRvreba kaloriebze moTxovnis normebis proporciulad.1

minimaluri sasursaTo kalaTis Semadgenloba Sromisunariani mamakacisaTvis

saqarTveloSi moicavs 103 dasaxelebis sursaTs, rogoricaa: pureuli,
marcvleuli, cximebi, xorceuli, bostneuli, xili, Saqari, kvercxi, marili, Rvino,
da a.S. wliuri moxmarebis norma Seadgens: xorblis puri – 130 kg, lobio – 12 kg,
saqonlis xorci – 22 kg, kvercxi – 150 cali, da a.S. sasursaTo kalaTaSi
Semavali saqonlis erTeulis fasi dgindeba fasebze dakvirvebis Sedegad.
sasursaTo kalaTis minimaluri energetikuli Rirebuleba dRe-RameSi
gaangariSebulia 2500 k.kaloriiT.
arasasursaTo saqonelze normativebi gaiangariSeba rogorc moxmarebis
moculobis, aseve cveTis vadebis mixedviT. magaliTad, ruseTis federaciis
normativebiT fexsacmlis moxmareba erT Sromisunarian adamianze gansazRvrulia
6 wyviliT 3,2 wlis ganmavlobaSi, pensionerebisaTvis 6 wyviliT 3,5 wlis
ganmavlobaSi, xolo bavSvebisTvis 7 wyviliT 1,8 wlis ganmavlobaSi.
ganisazRvreba aseve momsaxurebis moxmarebis normativebi momsaxurebis iseT
saxeebze, rogoricaa: transporti, kavSirgabmuloba, ganaTleba, jandacva da a.S.
saarsebo, an kidev rogorc uwodeben sacxovrebeli minimumis rogorc
normatiul, ise faqtobriv moculobaze gavlenas axdens samomxmareblo fasebi,
ramdenadac saarsebo minimumis rogorc normatiuli, ise faqtobrivi moculoba

1
b.gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006. gv. 27.
1
daviT kbilaZe. socialur-ekonomikuri statistika. Tb., 2005. gv. 239-240.

259
ganisazRvreba samomxmareblo kalaTaSi Semavali produqciis calkeuli saxeebis
gadamravlebiT maT fasze.
saarsebo minimumis sidides yovelTviurad angariSobs saqstati.
saarsebo minimumis garda qveyanaSi ganisazRvreba minimaluri xelfasis,
minimaluri pensiis da minimaluri stipendiis sidide.
cxrili 6.9

saarsebo minimumi sxvadasxva tipis momxmareblisa da

ojaxisaTvis saqarTveloSi 1996-2005 wlebSi (lari)1

1996 2000 2003 2004 2005 2008

Sromisunariani asakis mamakacis 111,5 115,0 130,7 84,3 92,6 127,9

saSualo momxmareblis 97,9 100,9 114,7 74,7 82,1 113,3

saSualo Sinameurneobis, m.S. 194,1 200,0 227,4 141,5 155,4 214,6

erTwevriani 97,9 100,9 114,7 74,7 82,1 113,3

orwevriani 156,6 161,4 183,5 119,5 131,3 181,3

samwevriani 176,2 181,5 206,4 134,5 147,7 203,9

oTxwevriani 195,7 201,7 229,4 149,4 164,1 226,6

xuTwevriani 220,2 226,9 258,0 168,1 184,6 254,9

eqvswevriani da meti 305,3 314,7 357,8 198,7 218,3 301,4

siRaribis statistikuri daxasiaTebisaTvis saWiroa gairkves is zRvari,

romlis qvemoTac adamiani iTvleba Raribad, ufro Raribad da Ratakad. Ratakebad
iTvlebian adamianebi, romelTa moxmareba nols uaxlovdeba.
statistikaSi ganasxvaveben siRaribis absolutur da fardobiT zRvrebs.
absolutur zRvrad miCneulia saarsebo minimumi, romelSic gulisxmoben
Sromisunariani asakis (15-dan 65 wlamde) mamakacis saarsebo minimums,xolo
fardobiT zRvrad miCneulia medianuri moxmarebis 60% da medianuri moxmarebis

1
cxrili Sedgenilia: b. gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi, Tb., 2006, gv. 26-27.
saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004-2005, Tb., 2005, gv. 87-88. saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi.
2008. Tb., 2009. gv. 60.

260
40%.medianuri moxmareba moxmarebis is sididea, romelze naklebsac moixmars
mosaxleobis 50%, xolo mosaxleobis danarCeni 50% moixmars masze mets. maT
mimarT procentebSi gamoiTvleba siRaribis iseTi statistikuri maCveneblebi,
rogoricaa: siRaribis done, siRaribis siRrme, siRaribis simwvave.
siRaribis done. Raribebs miekuTvnebian is adamianebi, romlebic moxmarebis
mixedviT siRaribis zRvars qvemoT imyofebian. siRaribis done gviCvenebs Raribebis
xvedriT wils mTel mosaxleobaSi procentulad da gamoiTvleba formuliT:2

q
H =  100,
n
(6.12)

sadac H _ aris siRaribis donis maCvenebeli;

q _ Raribebis ricxovnoba;
n _ mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnoba.
siRaribis dones sxvagvarad uwodeben Raribebis raodenobis indeqss.
siRaribis done aris zogadi maCvenebeli, romelic ver gviCvenebs ramdeniT
naklebia Raribi mosaxleobis moxmareba saarsebo minimumTan SedarebiT. aRniSnul
sxvaobas, anu Raribi mosaxleobis siRaribis zRvramde daSorebis xvedriT wils
gvixasiaTebs siRaribis siRrmis maCvenebeli, romelic gamoiTvleba formuliT:1
q
 (   Уi )
i=1
P1  ,
nZ
(6.13)

sadac: P1 _ aris siRaribis siRrme;

 _ siRaribis zRvari;
Уi _ Raribi mosaxleobis i -uri wevris moxmarebis moculoba;
q _ Raribi mosaxleobis ricxovnoba;
n _ mTeli mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnoba.
formulis mricxveliT vadgenT Raribi mosaxleobis moxmarebis im
moculobas, romelic maT siRaribis zRvramde misaRwevad sWirdebaT. faqtobrivad

2
gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 45
1
b. gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 46.

261
mricxveli gviCvenebs Raribebis moxmarebis deficits. formulis mniSvneli, n Z
warmoadgens mTeli mosaxleobis siRaribis zRvris donis Sesabamis jamur
moxmarebas. esaa moxmareba saarsebo minimumis pirobebSi.
Tu or periodSi Semcirda siRaribis siRrmis maCvenebeli, es migvaniSnebs
Raribebis moxmarebis zrdaze da maTi mdgomareobis gaumjobesebaze. magram aseT
tendencias, e.i. moxmarebis moculobis zrdas SeiZleba adgili hqondes Raribi
mosaxleobis erTi nawilis kidev ufro gaRaribebis da meore nawilis
mdgomareobis gaumjobesebis, e.i. Raribebis moxmarebis diferenciaciis gaRrmavebis
pirobebSi. aRniSnul tendencias siRaribis2 siRrmis maCvenebeli ver asaxavs.
amisaTvis statistikis praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba siRaribis simwvavis maCvenebeli. is
gvixasiaTebs RaribTa moxmarebaSi arsebul diferenciacias, e.i. variacias da
gamoisaxeba procentebSi. faqtobrivad es aris variaciis SefardebiTi maCvenebeli.
is gamoiTvleba formuliT:1

1 q   Уi 2 1 q Уi 2
P2   ( )   (1  ) .
n i=1  n i=1 
(6.14)

siRaribis maCveneblebi saqarTveloSi motanilia cxril 7.9-Si.

cxrili 6.10

siRaribis fardobiTi maCveneblebi

saqarTveloSi 1997-2009 wlebSi.2

siRaribis done siRaribis siRrme siRaribis simwvave

(%) (%) (%)

1
b. gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 47.
2
cxrili Sedgenilia: b. gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 50,
saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi, 2004-2005, Tb., 2005, gv. 81. www.statistics.ge

262
 60%-is mimarT

40%-is mimarT

60%-is mimarT

40%-is mimarT

60%-is mimarT

40%-is mimarT
moxmarebis
moxmarebis

moxmarebis

moxmarebis

moxmarebis

moxmarebis
medianuri

medianuri

medianuri

medianuri

medianuri

medianuri
minimumis

minimumis

minimumis
saarsebo

saarsebo

saarsebo
mimarT

mimarT

mimarT
1997 46,2 25,0 10,8 17,3 8,1 3,3 8,9 3,9 1,6

2000 51,8 23,0 10,2 20,2 7,6 3,2 10,7 3,7 1,6

2003 54,5 20,9 9,2 21,1 6,9 3,1 11,2 3,5 1,6

2004 35,7 35,5 16,9 12,2 12,3 5,4 6,1 6,1 2,6

2005 39,4 34,7 16,1 13,5 11,8 5,0 6,6 5,7 2,3

2009 ... 21,0 8,8 ... 6,6 2,6 ... 3,1 1,2

cxrilis monacemebis analizisas yuradRebas iqcevs is garemoeba, rom Tu

1997-2003 wlebSi saarsebo minimumis mimarT siRaribis maCveneblebis Semcirebis
pirobebSi, siRaribis maCveneblebi fardobiTi zRvrebis mimarT izrdeboda, 2004-
2005 wlebSi diametralurad sawinaaRmdego suraTs aqvs adgili: saarsebo
minimumis mimarT siRaribis maCveneblebis zrdis pirobebSi, siRaribis maCveneblebi
fardobiTi zRvrebis mimarT mcirdeba.
siRaribis maCveneblebi gamoiTvleba wliurad da kvartalebis mixedviT
mTeli mosaxleobis, aseve Sinameurneobebis mixedviT Sinameurneobebis suladobis
gaTvaliswinebiT qalaqisa da soflis WrilSi.
cxrili 6.11

siRaribis fardobiTi maCveneblebi saqarTveloSi

2005 wels Sinameurneobebis wevrTa ricxvis mixedviT1

siRaribis done siRaribis siRrme siRaribis simwvave

(%) (%) (%)

1
saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004-2005. Tb., 2005. gv. 83-84

263
 minimumis mimarT

minimumis mimarT

minimumis mimarT
40%-is mimarT

mimarT

40%-is mimarT

mimarT

40%-is mimarT
60%-is mimarT

60%-is mimarT

60%-is mimarT

60%-is mimarT
ojaxis

moxmarebis

moxmarebis

moxmarebis

moxmarebis

moxmarebis

moxmarebis
medianuri

medianuri

medianuri

medianuri

medianuri

medianuri
saarsebo

saarsebo

saarsebo
tipebi

40%-is

40%-is
erTwevriani 31,8 29,0 15,5 12,6 11,3 5,9 7,0 6,2 3,3

orwevriani 28,8 26,0 12,4 10,4 9,2 4,2 5,3 4,7 2,1

samwevriani 30,5 26,3 10,3 9,4 8,0 3,0 4,3 3,6 1,3

oTxwevriani 35,3 30,8 13,4 11,4 9,8 3,8 5,4 4,6 1,8

xuTwevriani 41,7 36,6 15,8 14,1 12,2 5,2 6,9 6,0 2,5

eqvsi da
47,9 42,5 21,5 17,1 15,0 6,5 8,5 7,4 3,0
met wevriani

sul 39,4 34,7 16,1 13,5 11,8 5,0 6,6 5,7 2,3

cxrilis monacemebidan Cans kanonzomiereba, romlis Tanaxmadac siRaribis

donis, siRrmis da simwvavis maCveneblebi ojaxis suladobis zrdasTan erTad
mcirdeba da minimalur mniSvnelobas aRwevs sam sulian ojaxSi. oTxsuliani
ojaxidan dawyebuli siRaribis maCveneblebi SesamCnevad, xolo xuTsuliani
ojaxidan dawyebuli, mkveTrad izrdeba.
saqme isaa, rom ojaxis suladobis zrdasTan erTad izrdeba e. w.
Tanacxovrebis efeqti. kerZod, aris xarjebi, romlebic ojaxis suladobis zrdis
kvalobaze nawildeba ojaxis wevrebze da erTsulian ojaxTan SefardebiT, anu
fardobiTad erT sulze mcirdeba, rac niSnavs danaxarjebis ekonomias da ojaxis
Semosavlis arapirdapir zrdas. Sesabamisad mcirdeba siRaribis done. magram
rogorc Cans, saqarTveloSi Tanacxovrebis efeqti moqmedebs samsuliani ojaxis
CaTvliT. oTxsuliani da ufro didi ojaxisTvis is ukve Zalas kargavs, radgan
maTSi siRaribis done imdenad mniSvnelovnad aRemateba erTsuliani, orsuliani da
samsuliani ojaxebis siRaribis dones, rom Tanacxovrebis efeqti masze gavlenas
veRar axdens.

264
 aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom siRaribis donis, siRrmis da simwvavis maCveneblebi
izrdeba ojaxSi bavSvebis ricxvis zrdasTan erTad. kerZod, 2005 wlisTvis
saqarTveloSi ubavSvo ojaxSi siRaribis done saarsebo minimumis mimarT
Seadgenda 37,9%, xolo 15 wlamde asakis 3 an meti bavSviani ojaxSi – 60,1%.

6.6. janmrTelobis dacvis da socialuri uzrunvelyofis statistika

janmrTelobis dacvis da socialuri uzrunvelyofis statistikis amocanaa

daaxasiaTos mocemul dargSi mimdinare movlenebi da procesebi, rogorc
mimdinare periodSi, ise dinamikaSi. aRniSnuli amocanebis gadasawyvetad saWiro
statistikur informacias saqstats angariSgebas warmoudgens Sromis,
janmrTelobis dacvisa da socialuri uzrunvelyofis saministro gansazRvrul
vadebSi.
mocemul dargs statistika axasiaTebs maCvenebelTa sistemis daxmarebiT,
romelic moicavs: jandacvas da socuzrunvelyofas, jandacvaSi dasaqmebul
personals, mosaxleobis avadobas, pensionerTa ricxovnobas.
saqarTvelos statistika jandacvis da socuzrunvelyofis dasaxasiaTeblad
sargeblobs Semdegi statistikuri maCveneblebiT:40
_ eqimebis ricxovnoba sul (aTasi) da 10 000 mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT;
_ eqimebis ricxovnoba calkeuli specialobebis mixedviT;
_ saSualo samedicino kadrebis ricxovnoba sul (aTasi) da 10 000
mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT;
_ saSualo samedicino kadrebis ricxovnoba calkeuli specialobebis
mixedviT;
_ saavadmyofoebis ricxvi;
_ saavadmyofo sawolebis ricxvi (aTasi);
_ erTi avadmyofis saavadmyofoSi yofnis xangrZlivoba (dRe);
_ ambulatoriul-poliklinikur dawesebulebaTa ricxvi;
_ ambulatoriul-poliklinikur dawesebulebaTa simZlavre (erT cvlaSi
avadmyofTa miRebis ricxvi (SesaZlebloba));

40
statistikuri weliwdeuli 2009, Tb., 84-94.

265
 _ ambulatoriul-poliklinikur dawesebulebebSi eqimTan mimarTvebis ricxvi
wlis ganmavlobaSi (maT Soris profilaqtikis CaTvliT (aTasi));
_ mosaxleobis avadoba sul da daavadebaTa ZiriTadi jgufebis mixedviT
(aTasi SemTxveva);
_ avadobis done ganisazRvreba pirvelad dadgenili diagnoziT avadmyofTa
ricxovnobis SefardebiT mudmivi mosaxleobis saSualo wliur
ricxovnobasTan. avadobis done SeiZleba ganisazRvros mosaxleobis
calkeuli sqesobrivi da asakobrivi jgufebis, aseve daavadebaTa ZiriTadi
jgufebis mixedviT;
_ bavSvTa (0-14 wlis asakis) avadoba daavadebaTa ZiriTadi jgufebis mixedviT
(aTasi SemTxveva);
_ mosaxleobis avadoba infeqciuri daavadebebiT;
_ mosaxleobis avadoba tuberkuloziT;
_ mosaxleobis momsaxureba saswrafo daxmarebiT (sul, maT Soris: ubeduri
SemTxvevebis, ucabedi avad gaxdomis, mSobiarobis da sxva garTulebebis
SemTxvevaSi);
_ pensionerTa ricxovnoba.
movitanoT 2008 wlis zogierTi statistikuri maCvenebeli saqarTvelos
Sesaxeb.
eqimebis ricxovnoba mocemuli wlisTvis aRwevda 20,3 aTass. 10 000 mcxovrebze
gaangariSebiT modioda 46,3 eqimi. aRniSnul maCvenebels ewodeba mosaxleobis
eqimebiT uzrunvelyofis maCvenebeli da gamoiTvleba rogorc:
eqimebis ricxovnoba
K uzr.  .10000 (6.15)
saSualo mosaxleoba

10000
mocemuli maCveneblis Sebrunebuli sidide ( ) , gviCvenebs, Tu ramdeni
46,3
mcxovrebi modis erT eqimze. mas SeiZleba vuwodoT eqimebis datvirTvis
maCvenebeli. mocemuli maCvenebeli pirdapiri gziT SeiZleba gamovTvaloT
saSualo mosaxleobis ricxovnobis SefardebiT eqimebis ricxvTan;

saSualo samedicino personalis ricxovnoba toli iyo 19,6 aTasis, 10 000

mcxovrebze modioda 44,7 saS. samed. personali, xolo erT saS. samed. personalze
_ 224 mcxovrebi;

266
 saavadmyofoebis ricxvi Seadgenda 244, maTSi sawolebis ricxvi 14,1 aTass, e.i.
saSualod erT saavadmyofoze modioda 58 sawoli;

ambulatoriul-poliklinikuri dawesebulebebis ricxvi aRwevda 1090-s, xolo

maTi simZlavre (erT cvlaSi avadmyofTa miRebis ricxvi) _ 87,4 aTass. 2008 wlis
ganmavlobaSi aRniSnuli tipis dawesebulebebSi eqimTan mimarTvebis ricxvma
Seadgina 7 530,1 aTasi.

cxrili 6.12

mosaxleobis avadoba daavadebaTa ZiriTadi jgufebis mixedviT saqarTveloSi

2006-2008 wlebSi41

% 2008
2006 2008
2006-Tan
pirvelad dadgenili diagnoziT registrirebuli 761,0 807,5 106,1
daavadebebis ricxovnoba, aTasi SemTxveva42
maT Soris:
zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadeba 44,9 47,1 105,0

axalwarmonaqmnebi 9,2 7,9 85,9

sisxlis da sisxlmbadi organoebis da imunuri meqanizmis 9,4 11,7 124,5

CaTreviT mimdinare calkeuli darRvevebi
endokrinuli sistemis, kvebisa da nivTierebaTa cvlis 27,7 30,6 110,5
darRveviT gamowveuli daavadebebi
fsiqiuri da qceviTi aSlilobebi 9,7 142,6
6,8

nervuli sistemis daavadebebi 31,9 29,0 90,9

Tvalisa da misi danamatebis daavadebi 35,1 116,6

30,1

yurisa da dvriliseburi morCis daavadebebi 16,0 19,9 124,4

sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi 83,2 74,4 89,4

41
statistikuri weliwdeuli 2009, Tb., 89.
42
aRiricxeba maTi ricxovnobac, visac orjer da metad daudginda avadmyofoba erTi da
igive diagnoziT. avadobis Sesaxeb statistikuri informaciis Segrovebasa da damuSavebas
safuZvlad edeba janmrTelobis dacvis saerTaSoriso organizaciis mier SemuSavebuli
klasifikacia.

267
sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi 313,8 299,8 95,5

saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis davadebebi 56,6 92,4 163,3

kanisa da kanqveSa ujredisis daavadebebi 27,0 29,1 107,8

ZvalkunTovani sistemisa da SemaerTebeli qsovilis

17,8 26,1 146,6
daavadebebi

Sardsasqeso sistemis daavadebebi 40,4 48,3 119,6

orsuloba, mSobiaroba da loginobis xana, abortiT

9,5 8,5 89,5
damTavrebuli orsuloba

perinatalur periodSi43 warmoSobili da calkeuli

2,0 2,1 105,0
mdgomareobebi

ganviTarebis Tandayolili anomaliebi, deformaciebi da

qromosomuli anomaliebi
1,3 1,7 130,8

avadobis ZiriTadi jgufebidan 2008 wels xvedri wilis mixedviT pirvel

adgilze dgas sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi, romlebzec modis avadobis
SemTxvevaTa 37,1%. Semdeg adgilzea saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis daavadebebi
_ 11,4%, sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi _ 9,2%, zogierTi infeqciuri da
parazituli daavadeba _ 5,8% da a.S.
pirveladi saswrafo samedicino daxmareba 2008 wels gaewia 796,6 aTas
adamians. maT Soris: ubeduri SemTxvevebis dros _ 10,9 aTass (1,4%), mSobiarobisa
da paTologiuri fexmZimobis dros _ 5,3 aTasi (0,7%), avadmyofobis, mSobiarobis
da axalSobilebis gadayvanis dros _ 28,5 aTass (3,6%).
socialuri uzrunvelyofis kuTxiT, 2008 wels saqarTveloSi aRricxulia
842,2 aTasi pensioneri, romelic Seadgens qveynis mosaxleobis 19,2%, e. i.
faqtobrivad yoveli mexuTe pensioneria. asakiT pensiazea gasuli 658,3 aTasi
adamiani, e. i. pensionerTa 78,2%.

43
esaa periodi dabadebidan erTi kviris ganmavlobaSi, e.i. 6 dRe (m.x.).

268
 perspeqtivaSi, arsebuli demografiuli prognozebiT, Sobadobis Semcireba da
axalgazrdobis emigracia saqarTvelodan gamoiwvevs sapesio asakis mosaxleobis
ricxovnobis rogorc absolutur, ise fardobiT (xvedri wilis) zrdas.

6.7. ganaTlebis statistika

ganaTlebis statistika Seiswavlis skolamdeli da zogadsaganmanaTleblo,

saSualo profesiuli da umaRlesi saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis qsels da
maT saqmianobas.
saqarTvelos ganaTlebis sistema eyrnoba ganaTlebis saerTaSoriso
klasifikators. aRniSnuli klasifikatori iTvaliswinebs ganaTlebis donis
Semdeg safexurebs:
nulovani safexuri _ skolamdeli dawesebuleba, rogorc swavlebis sawyisi
etapi;
pirveli safexuri _ dawyebiTi skola, moicavs 1-6-e klasebs;
meore safexuri _ arasruli saSualo (sabazo) skola, moicavs 7-9-e klasebs;
mesame safexuri _ saSualo skola, moicavs 10, 11, 12-e klasebs. amave safexurs
miekuTvneba dawyebiTi profesiuli da saxelobo saswavleblebi;
meoTxe safexuri _ saSualo profesiuli saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebi.
2009/2010 saswavlo wlidan saqarTveloSi isini aRar funqcionireben;
mexuTe safexuri _ umaRlesi ganaTlebis pirveli etapi, moicavs sabakalavro
da samagistro momzadebas;
meeqvse safexuri _ umaRlesi ganaTlebis meore etapi. diplomisSemdgomi
ganaTlebis sistema. saqarTveloSi 2007 wlamde is funqcionirebda aspiranturis,
xolo 2007 wlis Semdeg _ doqturanturis saxiT. doqtorantura funqcionirebs
umaRles saswavleblebSi da disertaciis dacvis Semdeg doqtorantebs aniWebs
doqtoris akademiur xarisxs.
Sesaswavl sagans ganaTlebis statistika axasiaTebs maCvenebelTa sistemis
daxmarebiT, romelTagan ZiriTadia:44
_ saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis ricxvi saxeebis mixedviT, maTSi
moswavleTa (studentTa) ricxovnoba;

44
statistikuri weliwdeuli 2009, Tb., 69-80. maCveneblebi motanilia saswavlo wlis
dasawyisisaTvis.

269
 _ moswavleTa (studentTa) ricxovnoba 10 000 mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT’
_ specialistTa gamoSveba 10 000 mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT;
_ zogadsaganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis moswavleTa ganawileba klasebis
mixedviT;
_ pedagogebis raodenoba zogadsaganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebSi;
_ sajaro skolebis moswavleTa ganawileba swavlebis enis mixedviT;
_ moswavleTa ganTesva sajaro skolebSi;
_ saxelmwifo saSualo profesiuli saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis
ricxvi da maTSi moswavleTa ricxovnoba swavlebis saxeebis (dRis da
dauswrebel ganyofilebebze) mixedviT;
_ kerZo saSualo profesiuli saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis ricxvi da
maTSi moswavleTa ricxovnoba;
_ saxelmwifo da kerZo saSualo profesiuli saganmanaTleblo
dawesebulebebi da maTSi moswavleTa ricxovnoba dargobrivi jgufebis
mixedviT;
_ saxelmwifo da kerZo umaRlesi saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis ricxvi
da maTSi studentTa ricxovnoba swavlebis saxeebis (dRis, saramos da
dauswrebel ganyofilebaze) mixedviT;
_ saxelmwifo da kerZo umaRlesi saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebi da maTSi
moswavleTa ricxovnoba dargobrivi jgufebis mixedviT;
_ umaRlesi saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis profesor-maswavlebelTa
ricxovnoba;
_ doqturanturaSi miReba, doqturantebis ricxovnoba da gamoSveba.
ganaTlebis saerTaSoriso standartebis moTxovnebi Camoyalibebulia
ЮНЕСКО-s ganaTlebis saklasifikacio sistemiT. saqarTvelos ganaTlebis
sferoSi amJamad moqmed statistikur maCvenebelTa sistema daaxloebiT 60
procentiTaa harmonizebuli evropul standartebTan.45 ukanasknel wlebSi gvaqvs
Semdegi maCveneblebi.
cxrili 6.13

45
daviT kbilaZe, nino abesaZe, Sorena metreveli. statistika ekonomikasa da biznesSi. Tb.,
2008, gv. 597.

270
 skolebis da umaRlesi saswavleblebis zogierTi maCvenebeli saqarTveloSi
2006/2009 wlebSi46

saswavlo weli 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009

skolebis ricxvi 2 539 2 462 2 448

pedagogebis ricxovnoba 76 339 75 435 76 887

moswavleTa ricxovnoba 635 988 614 666 643 293

moswavleTa ricxovnoba 10 000 1 446 1 401 1 467

mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT

umaRlesi saswavleblebis ricxvi

166 156 129
profesor-maswavlebelTa ricxovnoba
... 14 603 11 424
studentTa ricxovnoba (aTasi)
110,8 81,2 66,5
studentTa ricxovnoba 10 000 mcxovrebze
320 256 214
gaangariSebiT

46
cxrili Sedgenilia: statistikuri weliwdeuli 2009, Tb., 69-70, 80.

271
 Tavi 7. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi:

- sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebi;

- sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikaSi gamoyenebuli ZiriTadi
cnebebi, kategoriebi da maCvenebelTa sistema;
- sagareo vaWrobis oficialuri statistikis warmoebis mokle
meTodologia da praqtika saqarTveloSi;
- sagareo vaWrobis moculobisa da struqturis statistikuri analizi;
- ucxouri investiciebis statistika;
- saxelmwifo sagareo valis statistika;
- sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis geografiis statistika;
- sagadasaxdelo balansis statistika.

7.1. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebi

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistika warmoadgens

ekonomikuri statistikis erT-erT mniSvnelovan dargs. misi Seswavlis
sfero gansakuTrebiT gafarTovda globalizaciis Tanamedrove etapze,
rodesac qveynebs Soris urTierToba ufro mWidro da mravalmxrivi gaxda.
amJamad ukve sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebi moicavs movlenaTa da
procesTa did simravles - rogorc ormxrivi, ise mravalmxrivi kavSirebiT.
konkretuli qveynebis mixedviT maTi mdgomareobis analizi moiTxovs
saTanado informaciis arsebobas. aseTi informaciis miRebis wyaros
warmoadgens swored sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis
warmoeba. igi moicavs savaWro-ekonomikur, safinanso-sabanko, saerTaSoriso
satransporto tvirTbrunvas da mgzavrTbrunvas, saerTaSoriso turizms,
samecniero-teqnikur urTierTobebs da sxv. maT Sesaxeb monacemebis miReba,
damuSaveba da raodenobrivi analizi statistikuri kvlevis erTiani

272
procesis mTavari etapebia. aqedan gamomdinare, sagareo ekonomikuri
urTierTobebis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebia:

1. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebis Sesaxeb statistikur

monacemTa Segroveba konkretuli droisa da sivrcis mixedviT da
Sesabamisi sainformacio bazebis formireba;
2. miRebuli informaciis pirveladi damuSaveba;
3. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebis analizi, rac
gulisxmobs Semdegs:
3.1. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebis moculobis
Seswavla dinamikaSi da adekvaturi maCveneblebis gaangariSeba;
3.2. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebis struqturis
Seswavla dinamikaSi da adekvaturi maCveneblebis gaangariSeba;
3.3. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebs Soris kavSiris
statistikuri maCveneblebis gaangariSeba;
4. ucxouri investiciebis moculobisa da struqturis Seswavla
dinamikaSi da adekvaturi statistikuri maCveneblebis gaangariSeba;
5. saxelmwifos sagareo valis statistikis warmoeba;
6. sagadasaxdelo balansis warmoeba;
7. saerTaSoriso satransporto gadazidvebis moculobisa da
struqturis Seswavla calkeuli qveynebisa da regionebis mixedviT;
8. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebis moculobisa da
struqturis statistikuri prognozebis gaangariSeba;
9. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis maxasiaTebeli statistikuri
monacemebis publikacia.

aRniSnuli amocanebis Sesasruleblad sagareo ekonomikuri

urTierTobebis statistika axorcielebs statistikuri kvlevis yvela
cnobil etaps (statistikur dakvirvebas, monacemTa pirvelad damuSavebas
da maT analizs). am procesSi igi farTod iyenebs statistikuri mecnierebis
yvela meTods, dawyebuli SerCeviTi da mTliani dakvirvebidan da
damTavrebuli statistikuri prognozirebis mravalricxovani meTodebiT.

273
 7.2. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikaSi gamoyenebuli
ZiriTadi cnebebi, kategoriebi da maCvenebelTa sistema

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikaSi gamoiyeneba

mravali cneba da kategoria, romelTa Sinaarsis codna aucilebelia
Sesabamisi maCveneblebis sworad gaangariSebisaTvis. esenia: sagareo
vaWrobis balansi, eqsporti, importi, reeqsporti, sagareo vaWrobis saldo,
sagareo vaWrobis brunva, sasaqonlo klasifikatori, savaluto kursi da
sxv.

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikur maCvenebelTa

sistema moicavs rogorc zogad, ise kerZo maCveneblebs. orive maTgani
gamoisaxeba naturalur da RirebulebiT zomis erTeulebSi. naturalur
erTeulebSi umetesad gamoisaxeba produqciis eqsportisa da importis
Semadgeneli calkeuli sasaqonlo poziciebi (nomenklatura), saerTaSoriso
tvirTbrunvis (calkeuli saxeobebis tvirTis mixedviT) da mgzavrTbrunvis
sidideebi konkretuli qveynebis mixedviT da a. S. amasTan erTad, aRniSnuli
da sxva krebsiTi maCveneblebi, rogoricaa sagareo vaWrobis mTliani
brunva, eqsportisa da importis sidideebi da sxva, gamoisaxeba aseve
RirebulebiT formaSi (rogorc wesi, aSS dolarSi).

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis movlenebisa da procesebis

Sesaxeb monacemTa mopovebisa da analizisas gamoiyeneba statistikuri
mecnierebis yvela cnobili meTodi, kerZod: statistikuri dakvirveba,
dajgufeba, SefardebiTi da saSualo sidideebi, indeqsebi, droiTi
mwkrivebi, SerCeviTi dakvirveba, korelaciur-regresiuli meTodebi da sxv.

274
 7.3. sagareo vaWrobis oficialuri statistikis warmoebis mokle
meTodologia da praqtika saqarTveloSi*

sagareo vaWrobis oficialuri statistikis monacemTa formireba

xorcieldeba gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis statistikis
departamentis rekomendaciebis gaTvaliswinebiT SemuSavebuli
meTodologiis, “saqonliT saerTaSoriso vaWrobis statistika,
saxelmZRvanelo SemdgenelTaTvis” (gaerTianebuli erebis organizacia, niu
iorki, 2004 w.) da uaxlesi rekomendaciebis „saqonliT saerTaSoriso
vaWrobis statistika, koncefciebi da gansazRvrebebi, 2010 w.“
(gaerTianebuli erebis organizacia, niu iorki, 2011 w.) Sesabamisad. sagareo
vaWrobaSi saqarTvelo iyenebs aRricxvis “zogad meTods”, rac niSnavs, rom
saqonlis eqsport-importis aRricxvis ZiriTadi kriteriumia mis mier
qveynis ekonomikuri teritoriis gadakveTa. eqsportSi igulisxmeba rogorc
erovnuli warmoSobis produqciis gatana sazRvargareT, ise importirebuli
saqonlis reeqsporti. importSi igulisxmeba qveyanaSi produqciis Semotana
da eqsportirebuli saqonlis reimporti. eqsporti aRricxulia FOB, anu
eqsportiori qveynis franko-sazRvris fasebSi (moicavs eqsportiori qveynis
sazRvramde tvirTis transportirebisa da satransporto saSualebis
bortze datvirTvis xarjebs), xolo importi _ CIF, anu importiori qveynis
franko-sazRvris fasebSi (garda fasisa, moicavs aseve saerTaSoriso
fraxts da dazRvevis xarjebsac). partniori qveynis dadgenis
kriteriumebia: importis dros - saqonlis warmoSobis an gamomgzavni
qveyana, eqsportis dros ki - saboloo daniSnulebis qveyana.

sagareo savaWro operaciebis Sesaxeb informaciis ZiriTad wyaros

warmoadgens satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebis monacemTa baza, romelsac

-------------------------------------

* saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris oficialuri versiis mixedviT.

275
statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri yovelTviurad iRebs saqarTvelos
finansTa saministros Semosavlebis samsaxuridan. amasTan, informacia
satransporto saSualebebiT vaWrobis Sesaxeb damatebiT miiReba Sss-is
momsaxurebis saagentodan, xolo bunebrivi airisa da eleqtroenergiis
eqsport-importis Sesaxeb _ Sesabamisad Sps ~saqarTvelos gazis
transportirebis kompania~-dan da Sps ,,saqarTvelos saxelmwifo
eleqtrosistema“-dan.
saqstati Semosavlebis samsaxuridan miRebuli informaciis safuZvelze
axorcielebs:

- satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebis monacemTa bazis kontrols ZiriTadi

informaciuli velebis mixedviT - saqonlis kodi, fasi, wona, damatebiTi
zomis erTeuli, gamgzavni/mimRebi qveynis kodi;
- ZiriTadi saqonlis mixedviT zRvruli fasis kontrols da
Sesabamisad, raodenobis, Rirebulebis an damatebiTi zomis erTeulis
koreqtirebas;
- im saqonlis amoRebas Semosavlebis samsaxuris monacemTa bazidan,
romelic ar ganekuTvneba saqonliT sagareo vaWrobas (mimoqcevaSi myofi
fasiani qaRaldebi, banknotebi da monetebi; droebiT Semotanili da
gatanili saqoneli (maT Soris saerTaSoriso gamofenebze); diplomatiuri
da sxva saxis tvirTebi, romlebic saerTaSoriso meTodologiis mixedviT
ar Sedis saqonliT sagareo vaWrobaSi).
saqonlis eqsport-importis aRricxvisaTvis gamoiyeneba “sagareo
ekonomikuri saqmianobis sasaqonlo nomenklatura (sesn 2012)”, romelic
agebulia saqonlis aRwerisa da kodirebis harmonizebuli sistemis bazaze.
RirebulebiTi maCveneblebi mocemulia aSS dolarebSi. statistikuri
Rirebulebis gaangariSeba aSS dolarebSi xorcieldeba sabaJo organoebis
mier satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebis gaformebis momentSi Tbilisis
bankTaSoris savaluto birJaze dadgenili oficialuri gacvliTi kursiT.

276
 saqarTveloSi sagareo vaWrobis statistikis droiTi (dinamikuri)
mwkrivebi xelmisawvdomia 1995 wlidan, rogorc calkeuli qveynebis, ise
sasaqonlo nomenklaturis WrilSi.
monacemebi muSavdeba da sistematurad qveyndeba yovelTviuri
periodulobiT. 2012 wlidan saqstati axorcielebs eqspres informaciis
gavrcelebas saangariSo Tvis dasrulebidan me-16 dRes, romelic moicavs
eqsportis, importis, sagareo savaWro brunvisa da savaWro balansis
agregirebul monacemebs. rac Seexeba detalur informacias calkeuli
qveynebisa da sasaqonlo nomenklaturis WrilSi, is qveyndeba saangariSo
Tvis dasrulebidan 24-e dRes.

7.4. sagareo vaWrobis moculobisa da struqturis statistikuri analizi

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis erT-erTi farTo

sferoa sagareo vaWrobis statistika. igi gulisxmobs saqonlis moZraobas
qveynis gareT da piriqiT, ,,danarCeni msofliodan“ mocemul qveyanaSi.
saqonlis moZraobis pirveli mimarTuleba aris eqsporti, xolo meore –
importi. aqve aucilebelia reeqsportis cnebis ganmartebac: reeqsporti
aris romelime qveynidan importirebuli produqciis gatana sxva qveyanaSi.
sagareo vaWrobis statistika reeqsports aRricxavs eqsportis mTlian
moculobaSi.

sagareo vaWrobis statistikaSi erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia

aseve sagareo vaWrobis saldo, romelic warmoadgens sxvaobas eqsportisa
da importis sidideebs Soris. igi SeiZleba iyos pozitiuri (dadebiTi,
aqtiuri), rodesac eqsportis moculoba aWarbebs imports da negatiuri
(uaryofiTi, pasiuri), rodesac sapirispiro SemTxvevaa, anu importis sidide
metia eqsportis moculobaze.

277
 sagareo vaWrobis statistika Seiswavlis eqsport-importis rogorc
mTlian moculobas dinamikaSi, aseve calkeuli qveynebisa da maTi jgufebis
mixedviT (magaliTad, evrokavSiris qveynebi, Savi zRvis auzis qveynebi da
a.S.

sagareo vaWrobis statistikis Seswavlis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani

sferoa aseve produqciis eqsport-importis struqturis Seswavla
sasaqonlo jgufebis mixedviT. maTi raodenobrivi asaxva xdeba rogorc
dinamikaSi, ise calkeuli qveynebisa da maTi jgufebis mixedviT. eqsportisa
da importis moculobisa da struqturis maCveneblebi gaiangariSeba
rogorc naturalur, ise RirebulebiT gamosaxulebaSi.
sagareo vaWrobis analizSi mraval statistikur meTodTan erTad
farTod gamoiyeneba SefardebiTi maCveneblebi. maTgan erT-erTi
mniSvnelovania sagareo vaWrobis moculoba saSualod 1 mcxovrebze,
romlis gaangariSeba xorcieldeba Semdegnairad:
Q
K br.  ,
S
sadac Q aris sagareo vaWrobis mTliani brunva;

S - mosaxleobis saSualo ricxovnoba.

sagareo vaWrobis analizSi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia aseve eqsportis
saSualo sidide erT mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT, romelic ase gamoiTvleba:
E
K eqsp.  ,
S
sadac E aris eqsportis moculoba;
S - mosaxleobis saSualo ricxovnoba.
sagareo vaWrobis analizisas aucilebelia aseve importis moculobis
SefardebiTi sididis gaangariSeba, romelic Semdegnairad gamoiTvleba:
Im
K imp.  ,
S
sadac Im aris importis moculoba;
S - mosaxleobis saSualo ricxovnoba.

278
 importisa da eqsportis moculobebs Soris sxvaobas ewodeba sagareo
vaWrobis saldo, romelic mniSvnelovan maxasiaTebels warmoadgens
nebismieri qveynis sagareo vaWrobis analizSi. Tu am absolutur sidides
gavyofT mosaxleobis saSualo ricxovnobaze, miviRebT sagareo vaWrobis
saldos SefardebiT maCvenebels, romelic miuTiTebs sagareo vaWrobis
deficiturobis an proficiturobis mniSvnelovnebaze. igi ase gaiangariSeba
N
K saldo  ,
S
sadac N aris sagareo vaWrobis saldos absoluturi sidide;
S - mosaxleobis saSualo ricxovnoba.
sagareo vaWrobis statistikur analizSi mniSvnelovan maCvenebels
warmoadgens importisa da eqsportis moculobis Tanafardoba. igi SeiZleba
gaviangariSoT 2 wesiT, kerZod: pirvel SemTxvevaSi importis moculoba
gaiyofa eqsportis sidideze, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi ki piriqiT. meore
wesis gamoyeneba mizanSewonilia im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac eqsportis
moculoba metia importis sidideze. am maCveneblebis gamoTvlis wesi
aseTia:
Im
K Tanaf.  ;
E
sadac Im aris importis moculoba;
E - eqsportis sidide.

saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi mricxveli da mniSvneli Seicvlian adgilebs.

aqve unda aRvniSnoT, rom es maCvenebeli SeiZleba gamoiTvalos

koeficientis an procentis saxiT.

saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris oficialuri
monacemebis mixedviT, saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis ganzogadebuli
maCveneblebi 2007 – 2012 wlebisaTvis aseTia (ix. Semdegi cxrili):

279
 cxrili 1. saqarTvelos sagareo vaWroba
(mln aSS dolari)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

საგარეო სავაჭრო
6444 7797 5634 6935 9247 10220
ბრუნვა
საქონლის
რეგისტრირებული 1232 1495 1134 1677 2189 2377
ექსპორტი
საქონლის
რეგისტრირებული 5212 6302 4500 5257 7058 7842
იმპორტი
საგარეო ვაჭრობის
-3980 -4806 -3367 -3580 -4869 -5465
სალდო

wyaro: saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris monacemTa banki.

oficialuri statistikis mixedviT, 2012 wels saqarTvelos savaWro

urTierToba hqonda msoflios 121 qveyanasTan. maTgan 10 umsxvilesi savaWro
partniori qveynebis jgufi aseTi maCveneblebiT xasiaTdeba (ix. Semdegi
cxrili):

cxrili 2. saqarTvelos umsxvilesi savaWro partniori qveynebi 2012 wlis

brunvis mixedviT

280
 eqsporti importi savaWro brunva

aTasi aSS % aTasi aSS % aTasi aSS %

dolari dolari dolari

sul 2 377 455,0 100,0 7 842 108,9 100,0 10 219563,9 100,0

maT Soris:

TurqeTi 142 777,0 6,0 1 392 17,8 1 535 714,4 15,0

937,5

azerbaijani 626 854,9 26,4 633 541,8 8,1 1 260 396,7 12,3

ukraina 167 016,3 7,0 597 099,6 7,6 764 115,9 7,5

CineTi 25 607,1 1,1 565 950,7 7,2 591 557,8 5,8

germania 38 571,9 1,6 541 896,7 6,9 580 468,6 5,7

ruseTi 45 816,0 1,9 473 796,8 6,0 519 612,9 5,1

aSS 226 170,9 9,5 213 156,9 2,7 439 327,8 4,3

bulgareTi 69 654,7 2,9 271 475,4 3,5 341 130,1 3,3

somxeTi 260 981,6 11,0 70 405,5 0,9 331 387,0 3,2

italia 53 330,1 2,2 270 969,3 3,5 324 299,4 3,2

danarCeni
partniori
qveynebi -
sul 720 674,5 30,3 2 810878,8 35,8 3 531 553,4 34,6

wyaro: saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris monacemTa banki.

me-20 saukunis bolos da 21-e saukunis dasawyisSi saqarTvelos

sagareo vaWrobaSi EU-qveynebi mniSvnelovani partniorebi arian, Tumca maT
jamur sidides daaxloebiT 3-jer aRemateba damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa
Tanamegobrobis (dsT) sagareo savaWro brunvis moculoba. 2012 wlis

281
oficialuri statistikuri monacemebiT, EU–sTan saqarTvelos sagareo
vaWrobis moculobamEUSeadgina 2 759,9 mln. aSS dolari, rac saqarTvelos
mTeli sagareo vaWrobis moculobis TiTqmis meoTxedi, anu 24,3 procenti
Seadgina. 10 wlis win ki, e. i. 2003 wels, analogiuri maCvenebeli iyo
TiTqmis mesamedi, anu 30,6 procenti. maSasadame, aRniSnuli periodisaTvis
EU–sTan saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis absoluturi moculobis zrdis
miuxedavad, misi SefardebiTi sidide, anu xvedriTi wili Semcirebulia.

sainteresoa aseve saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis mTlian moculobaSi

eqsportis sididis statistikuri analizi rogorc calkeuli qveynebis, ise
maTi jgufebis mixedviT. amis sailustraciod movitanoT Semdegi diagrama:

wyaro: saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri.

rogorc am diagramidan Cans, 2013 wlis pirvel naxevarSi saqarTvelos

eqsportSi umsxviles savaWro partniori qveynebis jgufs warmoadgens dsT,
romlis wilad modis eqsportis mTliani moculobis naxevarze meti, anu 55

282
procenti. pirvel 3 adgilzea azerbaijani, somxeTi da aSS. eqsportis
mTlian moculobaSi Semdegia EU-s qveynebi, romlebic 17 procents ikaveben.
maTgan pirvel 3 adgilze arian bulgareTi, italia da germania. garkveul
interess iwvevs 10 wlis winandeli monacemebi, rodesac eqsportis mTliani
moculobis mixedviT aseTi mdgomareoba dafiqsirda: 2003 wels
saqarTvelos eqsportis mixedviT umsxvilesi partniori qveynebis pirvel
aTeulSi EU-s wevri mxolod ori qveyana iyo (germania da gaerTianebuli
samefo), xolo importis mixedviT ki _ EU-s wevri 4 qveyana: germania,
gaerTianebuli samefo, safrangeTi da italia. sainteresoa is faqti, rom
2003 wels germaniisa da gaerTianebuli samefos savaWro brunvis
moculobam erTad (257,3 mln. aSS dolari) Seadgina evrokavSirTan
saqarTvelos mTliani savaWro brunvis naxevarze meti, anu TiTqmis 56
procenti.
2003 wels savaWro brunvis moculobis saSualo sididem evrokavSiris
wevr erT qveyanaze gaangariSebiT Seadgina 30,7 mln. aSS dolari (es
maCvenebeli gamoTvlilia martivi ariTmetikuli saSualos formuliT), anu:

y i

Y  . Tu am konkretul saSualo sidides aviRebT dajgufebis

n
safuZvlad, maSin miviRebT qveynebis or jgufs: 1. im qveynebis jgufi,
romlebsac saqarTvelosTan aqvs saSualoze maRali sididis savaWro
brunvis moculoba; 2. qveynebis meore jgufi, romlebsac aqvT saSualoze
dabali savaWro brunvis moculoba. Cveni azriT, aseTi saSualo
maCvenebeli SeiZleba miviCnioT savaWro urTierTobis ganviTarebis zogad
kriteriumad. am SemTxvevaSi misi konkretuli piroba aseTia: Tu saSualo
sidideze maRali moculoba eqneba gansaxilveli qveynebis mTliani
raodenobis naxevarze mets, maSin savaWro urTierTobis ganviTarebis
masStabi (sazRvrebi) farToa. winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi savaWro urTierTobis
ganviTareba arasakmarisi da uTanabroa. es bolo piroba Seesabameba amJamad
saqarTvelosa da EUEU-s wevr qveynebs Soris savaWro urTierTobis
ganviTarebis dones: is jer kidev arasakmarisia.

283
 7.5. ucxouri investiciebis statistika

nebismier qveyanaSi investiciebisaTvis xelsayreli garemos

Seqmna prioritetul mimarTulebad aris miCneuli. Ees gansakuTrebiT
mniSvnelovania saqarTvelosaTvis, roca qveynis ekonomikuri da
politikuri ganviTareba da saerTaSoriso, gansakuTrebiT evropuli,
integraciisaken swrafva xelisuflebis interesis sferoSia moqceuli.
sainvesticio saqmianoba investiciebis dabandebis, anu
investirebis realizaciisaTvis praqtikuli qmedebebis erTobliobaa.
sainvesticio saqmianobis monawileebad iTvlebian fizikuri, aseve
iuridiuli pirebi, maT Soris ucxoelebi, agreTve qveynebi da
saerTaSoriso organizaciebi. investiciebi dabandebis saxeobebis
mixedviT iyofa finansur dabandebad da investiciebad arafinansur
aqtivebSi. dabandebebis wyaroebis mixedviT investiciebi iyofa
sakuTar da nasesxebad. sakuTrebis formebis mixedviT _ adgilobriv
da ucxour investiciebad.

ganviTarebul qveynebSi investiciebis umetes nawils Seadgens

finansuri investiciebi. amis gamo praqtikaSi zogjer gamoiyeneba
investiciebis SedarebiT viwro gageba, romelic Semoifargleba
mxolod finansuri investiciebiT. finansuri dabandebebi warmoadgens
fuladi saxsrebis, materialuri da sxva faseulobebis sxva
iuridiuli piris fasian qaRaldebSi dabandebas; agreTve, dabandebebs
saxelmwifo da adgilobrivi sesxebis obligaciebSi, qveynis
teritoriaze Seqmnili sxva iuridiuli pirebis kapitalSi, ucxouri
sawarmos kapitalSi da a. S., aseve erTi iuridiuli piris mier meore
iuridiuli pirisaTvis gacemul sesxebs.

investiciebs arafinansur aqtivebSi miekuTvneba: investiciebi

ZiriTad kapitalSi, danaxarjebi kapitalur SekeTebaze, investiciebi
miwis nakveTisa da bunebaTsargeblobis obieqtebis SesaZenad,

284
investiciebi aramaterialur aqtivebSi (kompiuteruli programuli
produqtebi, patentebi, licenziebi, samecniero-kvleviTi da sacdel-
sakonstruqtoro samuSaoebi da a. S.), aseve investiciebi materialuri
sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebis Sesaqmnelad.

ZiriTad kapitalSi investiciebi warmoadgens im xarjebis

erTobliobas, romelic mimarTulia ZiriTadi kapitalis SesaZenad,
Sesaqmnelad da kvlavwarmoebisaTvis. kvlavwarmoebis struqturasa da
ZiriTadi fondebis specifikis Sesabamisad, investiciebi ZiriTad
kapitalSi ganisazRvreba rogorc danaxarjebi samSeneblo da
samontaJo samuSaoebze, saproeqto-saZiebo samuSaoebze,
mowyobilobebis SeZenaze, sawarmoo instrumentebisa da sameurneo
inventaris SeZenaze, mravalwliani kulturebisa da tyeebis gaSenebaze
da danarCen kapitalur samuSaoebze.

aramaterialur aqtivebSi igulisxmeba: kompiuteruli

programuli produqtebi, patentebi, licenziebi, savaWro markebi,
savaWro niSnebi, miwis nakveTebiT sargeblobis ufleba,
bunebaTsargeblobis obieqtebi, saavtoro uflebebi, saorganizacio
danaxarjebi da sxva.

Tavis mxriv, investiciebi SeiZleba iyos sarisko, pirdapiri da

portfeluri. sarisko investiciebi dakavSirebulia iseTi kapitalis
arsebobasTan, romelic warmoadgens investiciebs axali aqciebis
gamoSvebis formiT. es investiciebi Caideba iseTi saxis obieqtebze an
saqmianobis sferoSi, romelic dakavSirebulia did riskTan. zemoT
xsenebuli kapitali investirdeba erTmaneTisagan damoukidebel
proeqtebSi Cadebuli saxsrebis daCqarebulad amoRebis mizniT.
kapitaldabandebani, rogorc wesi, xorcieldeba mwarmoebeli
klientis aqciaTa nawilis SesyidviT, an masze sesxis gacemiT.

285
 kapitalis riskiani dabandeba ganpirobebulia wvrili firmebis
dafinansebiT axali teqnologiebis sferoSi.

pirdapiri investiciebi warmoadgenen dabandebebs sameurneo

obieqtis sawesdebo kapitalSi Semosavlis miRebisa da investiciebis
marTvaSi monawileobis uflebis miRebis mizniT.

portfeluri investiciebi gulisxmobs fasiani qaRaldebisa da

sxva aqtivebis SeZenas es aris sxvadasxva sainvesticio RirebulebaTa
erToblioba, romelnic gvevlinebian ZiriTad instrumentad
konkretuli sainvesticio miznis misaRwevad. portfelSi SeiZleba
Sevides erTi tipis Ffasiani qaRaldebi, mag: aqciebi, an sxvadasxva
investiciuri Rirebulebebi, mag: obligaciebi, Semnaxveli da
sadepozito serTifikatebi, sagirao mowmobebi, sadazRvevo polisebi
da sxva.

7.5.1. investiciebis statistikuri Seswavlis amocanebi da

informaciis wyaroebi

investiciebs ekonomikisa da mTlianad qveynis ganviTarebisaTvis

udidesi mniSvneloba eniWeba nebismier saxelmwifoSi. es gansakuTrebiT
mniSvnelovania iseTi qveynisaTvis, rogoric saqarTveloa,
gansakuTrebiT maSin, roca ekonomikis ama Tu im dargSi seriozuli
cvlilebebi mimdinareobs da ikveTeba is prioritetebi, romlebic
aucilebelia qveynis Semdgomi ganviTarebisaTvis.

erT-erT aseT prioritetad miCneulia adgilobrivi Tu ucxouri

investiciebis ganxorcielebis xelSewyoba, romelTa raodenobasa da
xarisxze didadaa damokidebuli saerTod qveynis ekonomikis
ganviTareba. ganxorcielebuli investiciebis sworad aRricxva xels
uwyobs im prioritetuli dargebis warmoCenas, romlebSic

286
investiciebis ganxorcieleba didi finansuri efeqtis momtania
qveynisaTvis.

investiciebis statistikuri Seswavla saSualebas iZleva sworad

gadaiWras mis winaSe dasmuli Semdegi amocanebi: investiciebis
moculobisa da struqturis absoluturi, SefardebiTi da saSualo
maCveneblebis, aseve maTi cvlilebis tempebis gaangariSeba;
investiciebis wyaroebisa da sferoebis analizi; investiciebis
ekonomikuri efeqtianobisa da sainvesticio saqmianobis intensivobis
maCvenebelTa gansazRvra.

statistikis amocana mdgomareobs investiciebis moculobis,

struqturis, Semadgenlobis, misi riskis gawevis SeswavlaSi da
dinamikur analizSi, aseve Sesabamisi prognozebis SemuSavebaSi.

investiciebis Sesaxeb sruli, Sesadarisi da drouli

statistikuri monacemebis miReba ekonomikuri analizis Catarebisa da
qveynis swori ekonomikuri politikis winapirobas warmoadgens. aseT
statistikur monacemebs gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba aqvs rogorc
qveynis ekonomikisaTvis, ise calkeuli firmebisaTvis.

investiciebis Sesaxeb statistikuri informaciis ZiriTad

wyaroebs warmoadgens saxelmwifo statistikuri dakvirvebis
monacemebi, firmebis sabuRaltro angariSebi, administraciuli
monacemebi (magaliTad, monacemebi uZravi qonebis saxelmwifo
registraciis Sesaxeb) da sxv.

firmebis sabuRaltro angariSebi Seicavs informacias

investiciebis finansuri maCveneblebis Sesaxeb, saangariSo periodis
dasawyisisa da dasasrulis mdgomareobiT, maTi saxeebad ganawilebis
(aqciebi, obligaciebi, sesxebi da a. S.), saangariSo periodis
ganmavlobaSi grZelvadiani investiciebis dafinansebis saSualebebis
moZraobis, mimdinare, sainvesticio da safinanso saqmianobis sferoSi

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 fuladi saSualebebis Semosavlebisa da gasavlebis, ZiriTadi
kapitalis Semosavlebisa da gasavlebis Sesaxeb.

saxelmwifo statistikuri dakvirvebis farglebSi investiciebis

Sesaxeb cnobebis Segroveba xorcieldeba yovelkvartalurad, xolo
calkeuli monacemebis mixedviT _ yovelTviurad. statistikuri
dakvirvebis formebi daegzavneba uklebliv yvela organizacias,
romlebic ar warmoadgenen mcire subieqtebs (sawarmoebs). mcire
sawarmoo subieqtebi gamoikvlevian SerCeviT, gamartivebuli formiT,
SerCeviTi statistikuri meTodis gamoyenebiT. Semdeg ki SerCevis
Sedegebi vrceldeba mcire sawarmoTa mTel erTobliobaze.

statistikuri dakvirveba saSualebas iZleva miviRoT Semdegi

saxis informacia:

1. saangariSo periodSi finansuri investiciebis nakadebisa da maTi

sididis Sesaxeb am periodis bolos (rogorc mocemuli
organizaciis mier sxva erTeulebSi mimarTuli investiciebis, ise
mocemul organizaciaSi Cadebuli investiciebis mixedviT);
2. organizaciis mier arafinansuri aqtivebis Seqmnasa da SeZenaze
mimarTuli investiciebis nakadebis Sesaxeb (maTi saxeobebis
WrilSi);
3. investiciebisaTvis gamonaxul saSualebaTa wyaroebis Sesaxeb.
sawarmoebidan miRebul cnobebs ZiriTad kapitalSi
investiciebis Sesaxeb emateba gaangariSebiTi monacemebi im
investiciebis Sesaxeb, romlebic xorcieldeba fizikuri pirebis mier.

investiciebis statistikis formireba moiTxovs adre arsebul

maCvenebelTa sistemis srulyofas. maCvenebelTa klasifikacia
pirobiTad SeiZleba movaxdinoT Semdegi jgufebis mixedviT: 1)
proeqtis efeqtianobis analizis, 2) sawarmos finansuri mdgomareobisa
da 3) investiciebis efeqtianobis maCveneblebi.

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 investiciuri proeqtis efeqtianobis maCveneblebi SeiZleba
daiyos or ZiriTad jgufad: sawarmoo saqmianobis efeqtianobis
maCveneblebad da sawarmos finansuri mdgomareobis maCveneblebad.

investiciebis efeqtianobis maCveneblebs miekuTvneba:

1. yovelwliuri Semosavlis saangariSgebo done ganisazRvreba,

rogorc sxvaoba saerTo investiciebsa da maT calkeul Rirebulebas
Soris proeqtis sicocxlisunarianobis vadisaTvis.

2. proeqtis aTvisebis periodi. am periodSi iTvleba is dro

(weli, Tve), romlis ganmavlobaSic sawarmos sawarmoo saqmianobidan
ifareba investiciebze danaxarji. aTvisebis vada, Cveulebriv izomeba
wlobiT an TveobiT da gamoiTvleba investiciebis (gadasaxadebis)
Tanxis SefardebiT sawarmoo saqmianobis yovelwliur SemosavlebTan.

sainvesticio procesi yovelTvis raRac zomis riskTanaa

dakavSirebuli. axali saqmis dawyebisas, warmoebaSi fulis
dabandebisas, aqciebis paketis SeZenisas, birJaze TamaSisas da a. S.,
riski _ es aris saSiSroeba realuri dabandebuli saxsrebis
dakargvisa, an TiToeul dabandebul larze gaTvaliswinebulze ufro
dabali mogebis miRebis albaToba, agreTve, kapitalis gaufasureba
inflaciuri procesebis Sedegad. mewarmem unda gaiTvaliswinos, rom
is riskavs. investirebis saboloo Sedegi SeiZleba ar iyos iseTi,
rogorsac warmoidgenda investori dagegmvis dros.

risks SeiZleba mivakuTvnoT, agreTve, SesaZlebeli moTxovnileba

damatebiT, adre gauTvaliswinebel, anu ganusazRvrel dabandebebze,
situaciis gauTvaliswinebel cvlilebebTan dakavSirebiT.
gauTvaliswinebeli danakargebisa da danaxarjebis riskTan
dakavSirebulia ara mxolod investoris gamoCena axal bazarze,
aramed _ misi wasvlac bazridan saqonlis daZvelebis da masze
moTxovnilebis dacemis gamo.

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 sainvesticio riskis daxasiaTeba da misi regulirebis
SesaZleblobebi SeiZleba miRebul iqnes statistikuri mecnierebis
meTodebis gamoyenebiT. maT ricxvs miekuTneba aseve is meTodebi,
romlebic dafuZnebulni arian statistikuri gadawyvetilebis
Teoriaze (riskis Teoria) da statistikuri cdebis meTodi (e. w.
“monte-karlos” meTodi). statistikuri gadawyvetilebebis Teoria
saSualebas iZleva alternatiuli variantebidan arCeul iqnes
optimaluri sabazro strategia ganusazRvrelobis pirobebSi,
statistikuri dakvirvebis Sedegad miRebuli Sedegebis mixedviT.
optimalurad ki iTvleba is gadawyvetileba, romelic uzrunvelyofs
riskis minimizacias.

7.5.2. pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis (FDI) moculobis gaangariSebis

mokle meTodologia da praqtika saqarTveloSi
(saqstatis oficialuri versiis mixedviT)

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi qveynis sagadasaxdelo balansis

erT-erT mniSvnelovan Semadgenel komponents warmoadgens. saqarTveloSi
misi moculobis gaangariSeba daiwyo saxelmwifo statistikis samsaxurma
1997 wlidan, rasac safuZvlad daedo saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis mier
SemuSavebuli meTodologia ,,sagadasaxdelo balansis saxelmZRvanelo”,
mexuTe gamocema; vaSingtoni, 1993 weli.

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis Sesaxeb informaciis ZiriTad

wyaroebs warmoadgens saqstatis mier warmoebuli kvartaluri da wliuri
periodulobis statistikuri gamokvleva sawarmoTa sagareo ekonomikuri
saqmianobis Sesaxeb. garda amisa, informacia miiReba saqarTvelos
ekonomikuri da mdgradi ganviTarebis saministrodan da aseve aWaris
avtonomiuri respublikis finansTa da ekonomikis saministrodan
ararezidenti subieqtebis mier privatizebuli obieqtebis Sesaxeb.

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 saqarTvelos erovnuli banki awarmoebs saqarTvelos safinanso
sferoSi, kerZod, komerciul bankebSi, sadazRvevo kompaniebsa da
mikrosafinanso organizaciebSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri
investiciebis Sesaxeb informaciis Segrovebas, damuSavebas da
yovelkvartalurad saqstatisaTvis miwodebas.
sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis Sesaxeb statistikuri gamokvleva
amJamad moicavs saqarTvelos yvela regions (arakontrolirebadi
teritoriebis garda) da 2000-mde samewarmeo subieqts. gamosakvlev obieqtTa
SerCeva xorcieldeba Semdegi ZiriTadi kriteriumebis mixedviT:
- sawarmos hyavs ararezidenti damfuZnebeli;
- axorcielebs eqsport-importis operaciebs;
- ararezidentebisgan aqvs aRebuli sesxi an gacemuli maTze;
- depozitebi aqvs ganTavsebuli ararezident bankebSi;
- flobs ararezidenti sawarmos sawesdebo an saaqcio kapitalis 10%-s da
mets;
- ararezidentebs uwevs an maTgan iRebs momsaxurebas.
yovelkvartalurad xorcieldeba SerCeul sawarmoTa ganaxleba maTi
saqmianobisa da damfuZnebelTa klasifikaciis mixedviT.
pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis ZiriTadi komponentebia: saaqcio
kapitali, reinvesticia da sxva kapitali.
1997 wlidan statistikuri monacemebi muSavdeba investori qveynebis
WrilSi. 2007 wlidan gamokvlevis instrumentarSi Sevida garkveuli
cvlilebebi, ramac saSualeba mogvca monacemebi dagvemuSavebina ekonomikis
seqtorebis WrilSi, rasac safuZvlad udevs sawarmoTa ZiriTadi
saqmianobis mixedviT dayofa. monacemTa sxvadasxva informaciuli wyaroebis
safuZvelze SesaZlebelia pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis monacemTa
gaangariSeba informaciis wyaroebis mixedviT.
winaswari monacemebis gamoqveyneba xorcieldeba yovelkvartalurad
saangariSo periodis dasrulebidan 70-e dRes. oTxi kvartalis SejamebiT

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miiReba winaswari wliuri monacemebi, romlis dazustebac warmoebs
wliuri gamokvlevis monacemebis safuZvelze momdevno wlis 15 agvistos.
dazustebuli monacemebi yovelTvis gansxvavebulia winaswarisagan. amis
erT-erTi yvelaze mTavari mizezi isaa, rom sawarmoebi waradgenen
dazustebuli mogeba-zaralis maCveneblebs.
winaswar da dazustebul monacemebs Soris sxvaoba dinamikaSi ar
warmoadgens iSviaTobas, radgan pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi ar aris
mxolod fiqsirebul aqtivebSi ganxorcielebuli investicia. igi finansuri
kategoriaa da misi dadebiTi da uaryofiTi mniSvnelobac saerTaSoriso
meTodologiur CarCoebSi da standartebSi Tavsdeba.
zogadad pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis Semcirebis mizezebi
SeiZleba iyos: ararezidentis mier wilis daTmoba rezidentisaTvis,
ararezidenti pirdapiri investoris reklasifikacia portfelis
investorad, rezidenti sawarmos mier ararezidenti pirdapiri investoris
mimarT arsebuli valdebulebebis Semcireba da sxva.
saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris oficialuri
monacemebis mixedviT (konkretuli wyaro: statistikuri gamokvleva
„sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis Sesaxeb“), 2013 wlis II kvartalSi
ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis mixedviT umsxvilesi
seqtorebis wilma 96 procenti Seadgina. yvelaze meti pirdapiri ucxouri
investicia energetikis seqtorSi ganxorcielda da 66 mln. aSS dolari
Seadgina, rac mTliani pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis 29 procentia.
meore adgilze imyofeba damamuSavebeli mrewveloba 59 mln. aSS dolariT,
xolo mesameze - transporti da kavSirgabmuloba 46 mln. aSS dolariT.
ekonomikis seqtorebis mixedviT 2013 wlis II kvartalSi
ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi procentulad ase
ganawilda:
- energetika 29%;
- damamuSavebeli mrewveloba 25%;
- transporti da kavSirgabmuloba 20%;

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 - mSenebloba 17%;
- safinanso seqtori 6%;
- ekonomikis sxva seqtorebi 3%.

oficialuri statistika Seagrovebs, daamuSavebs da gaaanalizebs

saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis Sesaxeb
raodenobriv monacemebs Tveebis, kvartalebis Tu wlebis mixedviT da,
amasTan erTad, ekonomikis seqtorebis WrilSi. garda amisa, aseTi
statistika iwarmoeba teritoriis mixedviTac, anu konkretulad romeli
qveynidan ra moculobis pirdapiri investiciebia Semosuli. am etapebis
ganxorcielebis Semdeg ukve qveyndeba miRebuli Sedegebi. aRniSnulis
sailustraciod movitanoT Semdegi cxrili:

cxrili 3. saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri

investiciebi qveynebis mixedviT

weli 2000 2005 2007 2010 2012

qveynebi

sul, mln aSS dolari 131,2 449,8 2,014,8 814,5 865,2

maT Soris:

evrokavSiris qveynebi - sul 41,6 243,8 1,132,7 248,2 402,2

evrokavSiris qveynebidan 10
umsxvilesi investori
qveyana (2012 wlis mixedviT)
germania 3,3 5,0 57,0 12,9 141,7
niderlandebi 4,4 0,5 299,3 73,4 87,6

gaerTianebuli samefo 4,8 132,9 145,5 59,0 66,8

luqsemburgi - 0,6 9,3 7,1 41,8

kviprosi 3,9 47,5 148,6 40,4 39,6
safrangeTi - 14,4 43,7 -7,8 26,9
malta - - - 16,8 13,4

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avstria - 243,8 11,4 10,1 7,6
slovakeTi - - - 0,01 5,3
espaneTi - - 3,6 0,1 4,4

dsT-is qveynebi - sul 6,1 107,8 238,4 91,2 114,2

dsT-is qveynebidan 5
umsxvilesi investori
qveyana (2012 wlis mixedviT)
azerbaijani - 66,9 41,4 58,0 72,7
ruseTi 6,1 - 89,0 47,9 25,6
yazaxeTi - - 88,5 -16,6 11,8
yirgizeTi - - - 14,1 6,2
somxeTi - 0,4 -4,9 -16,5 3,1

wyaro: saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris monacemTa baza.

motanili cxrilidan naTlad Cans saqarTvelos ZiriTadi investori

qveynebi da maTi gaerTianebebi sxvadasxva wlebis mixedviT.

7.6. saxelmwifo sagareo valis statistika

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis erT-erTi

mniSvnelovan mimarTulebas warmoadgens saxelmwifo sagareo valis
raodenobrivi Seswavla. mas didi mniSvneloba aqvs qveynis
gadaxdisunarianobis gansazRvraSi da momavali kreditebis miRebis
moculobis dadgenaSi. Tanamedrove etapze qveynebis umetesobas gaaCnia
sxvadasxva sididis vali sxva qveynebisa Tu saerTaSoriso organizaciebis
winaSe. bevr qveyanaSi xSiria SemTxvevebi, rodesac biujetis deficitis
dasafinanseblad adgili aqvs finansuri valdebulebebis aRebas, romlebic
or kategoriad iyofa - sagareo da saSinao valdebulebebad. sagareo valis
moculoba da misi SefardebiTi maCveneblebis zomier standartebSi moqceva
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yvela qveynis mTavrobebisTvis ekonomikuri politikis erT-erTi mniSvnelo-
vani nawilia.

sagareo valis oficialuri statistikis warmoeba ZiriTadad emyareba

msoflio bankisa da saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis rekomendaciebs
(ixileT: ,,sagareo valis statistika”, vaSingtoni, 2003 weli).

mTliani sagareo valis statistika harmonizebulia sagadasaxdelo

balansTan. igi moicavs saxelmwifo (samTavrobo seqtori da erovnuli
banki) da kerZo seqtoris (sabanko da sxva seqtorebi) sagareo vals.

msoflioSi miRebuli praqtikis Sesabamisad, saxelmwifo valis zeda

zRvrad mTliani Sida produqtis mimarT valis moculobis 60-procentiani
done miiCneva. aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom saqarTvelos sagareo vali mSp-is
37, xolo qveynis mTliani vali ki miaxloebiT 43 procentia. maSasadame, mSp-
s mimar saqarTvelos sagareo vali msoflios bevr sxva qveyanasTan
SedarebiT, ar aris maRali. saxelmwifo valis maCveneblebis Semcireba
daiwyo 2003 wlidan. magram 2008 wlidan sapirispiro procesi dafiqsirda,
rac gamovlinda saxelmwifo valis maCveneblebis droebiT zrdaSi 2008-2010
wlebSi globaluri finansuri da ekonomikuri krizisis fonze, romelmac
uaryofiTad imoqmeda ekonomikuri zrdis tempebze ara marto
saqarTveloSi, aramed mTel msoflioSi. saqarTvelos sagareo valis
SefardebiTi maCveneblebis klebis tendencia gagrZelda 2011 wlidan. sxva
qveynebis analogiur maCveneblebTan Sedareba gviCvenebs, rom saqarTvelos
sagareo valis SefardebiTi done gacilebiT ufro dabalia, vidre bevr
ganviTarebul qveyanaSi.

oficialuri statistikis mixedviT, saqarTvelos mTlianma sagareo

valma 2012 wlis 31 martis mdgomareobiT 11,4 miliardi aSS dolari (18,9
miliardi lari) Seadgina. aqedan 3,8 miliardi aSS dolari (6,3 mlrd lari)
iyo samTavrobo seqtoris vali (mTliani valis 33,4%); 783,1 mln aSS
dolari (1,3 mlrd lari, 6,9%) - erovnuli bankis; 2,1 miliardi aSS dolari

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(3,5 mlrd lari, 18,3%) - sabanko seqtoris, xolo danarCeni - sxva
seqtorebis.

unda aRiniSnos, rom Tanamedrove etapze saxelmwifo valis

moculobis zrda damaxasiaTebelia ara mxolod ganviTarebadi
qveynebisaTvis, aramed bevri ganviTarebuli qveynisTvisac (maT Soris
evrokavSiris wevri qveynebisTvis). davalianebis zrdas ganapirobebs
mravali endogenuri da egzogenuri (anu Siga da gare) faqtorebi. maTgan
SeiZleba gamoiyos Semdegi:

- saxelmwifo biujetis qronikuli deficiti;

- mSp-is zrdis tempebis Semcireba;
- sagadasaxdelo balansis deficitis mniSvnelovani gadideba;
- savaluto kursebis Zlieri ryevebi;
- sesxis momsaxurebis gadasaxdelebis mateba da sxv.

aRniSnuli faqtorebis uaryofiTi zegavlenis raodenobrivi gansazRvra

statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovan amocanas warmoadgens.

7.7. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis geografiis statistika

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis erT-erTi

mniSvnelovani sferoa am urTierTobebis geografiuli (teritoriuli)
ganawilebis Seswavla. igi moicavs ara mxolod sagareo vaWrobas, aramed
samecniero-teqnikur, safinanso-sabanko, saerTaSoriso satransporto
tvirTbrunvas da mgzavrTbrunvas, saerTaSoriso turizms, ucxour
investiciebs da sxv. igi gulisxmobs am procesebis amsaxveli maCveneblebis
dajgufebas calkeuli qveynebis da maTi gaerTianebebis mixedviT. cal-
calke aRiricxeba saeqsporto da saimporto urTierTobebi, gamoiTvleba
calkeuli qveynebis xvedriwilebi da xdeba maTi ranJireba. amis Sedegad
gamoiyofa 10 umsxvilesi qveyana rogorc eqsportis, ise importis mixedviT

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(saqstatis praqtikidan gamomdinare). aseTi analizi xorcieldeba aseve
produqciis calkeuli jgufebis mixedviT da gamoiyofa umsxvilesi
sasaqonlo jgufebi eqsportisa da importis mixedviT. rogorc wesi,
ranJireba xdeba bolo (uaxlesi) monacemebis mixedviT.

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis geografiis statistikis ZiriTadi

amocanebs miekuTvneba:
1. sazRvargareTis calkeul qveynebTan da maT gaerTianebebTan
ekonomikur urTierTobaTa moculobisa da dinamikis Seswavla konkretuli
mimarTulebebis (sferoebis) mixedviT, rogoricaa, magaliTad, eqsport-
importi, safinanso-sakredito, sainvesticio da sxva saqmianobebi;
2. sazRvargareTis calkeul qveynebTan da maT gaerTianebebTan
ekonomikur urTierTobaTa struqturisa da dinamikis Seswavla konkretuli
procesebis mixedviT;
3. gansazRvros sagareo ekonomikur urTierTobaTa efeqtianoba partniori
qveynebisa da maT gaerTianebebis mixedviT, calkeuli mimarTulebebis
WrilSi;
4. GgaiangariSos sagareo ekonomikur urTierTobaTa moculobisa da
struqturis sxvadasxva vadiani prognozebi calkeuli qveynebisa da maTi
gaerTianebebis mixedviT da aseve calkeuli mimarTulebebis WrilSi.
sagareo ekonomikur urTierTobaTa optimaluri geografiuli
ganlageba xels uwyobs sxva saxelmwifoebTan ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis
Semdgom gaRrmavebas da gafarToebas, sasaqonlo nakadebis teritoriuli
ganawilebis gaumjobesebas ama Tu im qveynis ekonomikuri Taviseburebebis
gaTvaliswinebiT, satransporto gadazidvebis optimizacias da sxva
mniSvnelovani amocanebis gadawyvetas.
mravali qveynis oficialuri statistikis Tanamedrove praqtikaSi ukve
farTod gamoiyeneba sagareo ekonomikur urTierTobaTa procesebis Sesaxeb
monacemTa miRebis, damuSavebisa da analizis saerTaSoriso rekomendaciebi
da meTodologia, maT Soris teritoriul WrilSi Seswavlisas. am
SemTxvevaSi gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva majgufebeli niSnebi da kerZod,

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qveynebis oficialuri samarTlebrivi gaerTianebis statusi, rogoricaa,
magaliTad, evrokavSiris qveynebi, damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa
Tanamegobrobis qveynebi, Savi zRvis auzis qveynebi da sxv. garda amisa,
SesaZlebelia dedamiwis kontinentebis mixedviT qveynebis dajgufebis
gamoyenebac, magaliTad, aziis qveynebi, afrikis qveynebi, amerikis qveynebi
da a. S.

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis geografiis statistikis erT-erT

mniSvnelovan amocanas miekuTvneba importisa da eqsportis moculobisa da
struqturis raodenobrivi Seswavla qveynebis gaerTianebebis mixedviT.
importis geografiuli ganawilebis empiriuli analizisaTvis movitanoT
Semdegi statistikuri monacemebi dinamikaSi (ix. Semdegi cxrili):

cxrili 4. importis moculoba dinamikaSi qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT

(mln aSS dolari)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

importis moculoba - 855,3 904,7 995,0 967,8 986,5

sul

maT Soris:

evropis qveynebidan 438,5 473,1 500,3 481,8 490,9

aziis qveynebidan 385,8 397,9 477,5 450,1 447,5

amerikis qveynebidan 29,5 32,0 15,3 34,4 45,2

afrikis qveynebidan 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,2 2,1

okeaneTis qveynebidan 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,3 0,8

gaviangariSoT:

298
 a) qveynebis jgufebis xvedriTi wili importis mTlian moculobaSi
(procentobiT);
b) qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT saSualo absoluturi matebani;
g) qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT jaWvuri zrdis tempebi (procentobiT).

yoveli kiTxvis (a, b da g) pasuxebis Sedegebis mixedviT gaakeTeT

mokle daskvnebi.

amoxsna:

a) imisaTvis, rom gaviangariSoT qveynebis jgufebis xvedriTi wili

importis mTlian moculobaSi, saWiroa gavixsenoT struqturis
SefardebiTi sidideebis gaangariSebis wesi, romlis Tanaxmadac mocemuli
erTobliobis calkeuli nawilebis xvedriTi wili gaiangariSeba maTi
cal-calke gayofiT erTobliobis mTlian moculobaze da gamravlebuli
100-ze (procentuli gamosaxvis SemTxvevaSi). maSasadame, gveqneba:
evropis qveynebis xvedriTi wili importis mTlian moculobaSi,
calkeuli wlebis mixedviT (procentobiT):

438,5
2006 weli -  100  51,3%;
855,3

473,1
2007 weli -  100  55,3%;
904,7

500,3
2008 weli -  100  58,5%;
995,0

481,8
2009 weli -  100  56,3%;
967,0

490,9
2010 weli -  100  57,4%.
986,5

299
 rogorc miRebuli Sedegebi gviCvenebs, 2006-2010 wlebisaTvis
saqarTvelos importis mTlian moculobaSi yovelwliurad udidesi
xvedriTi wili, anu naxevarze meti evropis qveynebis jgufze modis.

analogiuri wesiT gamoiTvleba sxva qveynebis jgufebis xvedriTi

wili importis mTlian moculobaSi.

b) imisaTvis, rom gaviangariSoT qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT

saSualo absoluturi matebani, saWiroa gavixsenoT saSualo absoluturi
matebis gaangariSebis zogadi wesi, romlis Tanaxmadac calkeuli
absoluturi matebebis jami unda gaiyos maT raodenobaze (martivi
ariTmetikuli saSualo). maSasadame, saTanado formulas aseTi saxe eqneba:
_
_
=
 i .
n

jer saWiroa calkeuli absoluturi matebis sidideebis gaangariSeba.

amisaTvis wlebis mixedviT mocemul droiT mwkrivSi yovel momdevno dones
gamoakldeba wina done. konkretuli gamoTvlebi movaxdinoT amerikis
qveynebis jgufis mixedviT, e. i.:

1  32,0  29,5  2,5;

 2  15,3  32,0  16,7;

 3  34,4  15,3  19,1;

 4  45,2  34,4  10,8.

zemoT mocemul formulaSi SevitanT ra miRebul mniSvnelobebs,

miviRebT:

_ 2,5  16,7  19,1  10,8

=  3,9 mln aSS dolari.
4

300
 amrigad, amerikis qveynebis jgufis mixedviT saSualo absoluturma
matebam 2006-2010 wlebisaTvis saqarTvelos importis mTlian moculobaSi
Seadgina weliwadSi saSualod 3,9 mln aSS dolari.

analogiuri wesiT gamoiTvleba sxva qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT

saSualo absoluturi matebani importis mTlian moculobaSi.

g) qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT jaWvuri zrdis tempebis

gasaangariSeblad mocemul droiT mwkrivSi yoveli momdevno done unda

gaiyos wina doneze da miRebuli Sedegi gamravldes 100-ze (procentobiT
gaangariSebisas). amisaTvis unda gamoviyenoT Semdegi formula:

yi
Tzrd   100 .
yi 1

mocemuli formuliT konkretuli gaangariSebani movaxdinoT evropis

qveynebis jgufis mixedviT:

473,1
T2007   100  107,9%;
438,5

500,3
T2008   100  105,8%;
473,1

481,8
T2009   100  96,3%;
500,3

490,9
T2010   100  101,9%.
481,8

rogorc miRebuli Sedegebi gviCvenebs, 2006-2010 wlebisaTvis

saqarTvelos importis mTlian moculobaSi evropis qveynebis jgufis
mixedviT jaWvuri zrdis tempebi 100 %-ze metia (2009 wlis garda).

analogiuri wesiT gamoiTvleba sxva qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT

jaWvuri zrdis tempebi saqarTveloSi importis mTlian moculobaSi.

301
 7.8. sagadasaxdelo balansis statistika

sagadasaxdelo balansis warmoeba sagareo ekonomikuri

urTierTobebis statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani funqciaa.
sagadasaxdelo balansi erovnul angariSTa sistemis erT-erTi mTavari
Semadgeneli nawilia, romelic axasiaTebs qveynis savaWro da finansur
urTierTobebs sazRvargareTTan da Sesabamisi operaciebis mixedviT asaxavs
savaluto Semosavlebsa da gasavlebs Soris Tanafardobas. istoriaSi
pirveli sagadasaxdelo balansi SemuSavda aSS-Si meoce saukunis 70-iani
wlebis bolos, Tumca mas win uZRoda Teoriuli da meTodologiuri
safuZvlebis damuSaveba (saTanado cnebebi, kategoriebi, maCveneblebi,
gaangariSebis wesi, forma da meTodebi da a. S.).

sagadasaxdelo balansis ZiriTadi maCveneblebia fuladi Semosavlebi

da gadasaxdelebi, rac dakavSirebulia saimporto da saeqsporto
operaciebTan, qveynis centraluri bankebis savaluto rezervebisa da oqros
maragebis moculobis cvlilebebTan, Semosavlebi da gasavlebi sxvadasxva
saxis momsaxurebisaTvis (saerTaSoriso satransporto da turistuli
momsaxurebisaTvis da sxv.), saerTaSoriso sakredito Semosavlebi da
gadasaxdelebi, ucxour investiciebTan dakavSirebuli Semosavlebi da
gadasaxdelebi da sxv.

nebismieri qveynis sagadasaxdelo balansis zogadi SefasebisaTvis

gamoiyeneba sagadasaxdelo balansis saldos raodenobrivi maCvenebeli.
sagadasaxdelo balansis saldo aris sagadasaxdelo balansis
Semosavlebsa da gasavlebs Soris sxvaoba, romelic SeiZleba iyos
dadebiTi (anu aqtiuri) an uaryofiTi (anu pasiuri). pirvel SemTxvevaSi
Semosavlebi aWarbebs gasavlebs, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi piriqiT,
gasavlebis moculoba metia Semosavlebze. ra Tqma unda, qveynisaTvis metad
sasurvelia aqtiuri sagadasaxdelo balansis saldos dafiqsireba, rac
drois garkveul periodSi ufro meti savaluto Semosavlebis miRebas
gulisxmobs.

302
 sagadasaxdelo balansis struqtura moicavs 2 ZiriTad nawils. esenia:
1) mimdinare operaciebis angariSi, anu mimdinare angariSi da 2) kapitalisa
da finansuri resursebis angariSi. mimdinare angariSSi aisaxeba saqonliTa
da momsaxurebiT sagareo vaWroba, Semosavlebi da mimdinare transfertebi.
kapitalisa da finansuri operaciebis angariSi moicavs kapitalur
transfertebTan da arawarmoebul arafinansur aqtivebTan dakavSirebul
operaciebs, agreTve finansuri operaciebis angariSs, romelic, Tavis mxriv,
4 konkretul kategorias aerTianebs (pirdapiri investiciebi, portfelis
investiciebi, sxva investiciebi da sarezervo aqtivebi).

sagadasaxdelo balansi gulisxmobs monacemTa ormag Caweras, rac

imas niSnavs, rom yoveli calkeuli operacia tardeba ormagi Caweris
wesiT, anu: operacia aisaxeba erTi angariSis kreditSi da imavdroulad
meore angariSis debetSi. eqsportis SemTxvevaSi operaciis ekonomikuri
interpretacia aseTia: imdenad, ramdenadac gayiduli saqonlis nacvlad
qveyana Rebulobs ucxour valutas, aucilebelia orive nakadis asaxva
sagadasaxdelo balansSi. mocemuli forma iZleva sagadasaxdelo balansis
aqtiurobis an pasiurobis gamovlenis SesaZleblobas. aqtiuria is, Tu
qveynis Semosavlebi aWarbebs gadasaxdelebs, xolo pasiuria _ Tu
gadasaxdelebi sxva qveynebis mimarT aWarbebs sxva qveynebidan miRebul
Semosavlebs. pasiuri balansis SemTxvevaSi izrdeba sagareo vali, ecema
erovnuli valutis kursi, mcirdeba saerTaSoriso savaluto rezervebis
moculoba da a. S. amitom sagadasaxdelo balansis wonasworobis miRweva
qveynis ekonomikisa da safinanso mdgomareobis gajansaRebis erT-erTi
mniSvnelovani winapirobaa.

303
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