DISRUPTIVE MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES: AN OVERVIEW

Part I: Classification, AI & Robotics and Quantum Technologies

- Lt Gen (Dr) R S Panwar

Introduction
1. Cutting edge technologies whose manifestation on the battlefield, real or virtual, is
expected to have a significant impact on the nature of warfare, are often referred to as
disruptive military technologies. At this point in time, technology breakthroughs across a
whole spectrum of disciplines are being achieved at such a breath-taking pace that every few
years a new potentially disruptive technology emerges. Hence, there is a range of military
technologies which may be classified as disruptive in character. The most important amongst
these include IW technologies (those which enable cyber, EW and psychological warfare),
technologies underlying space related military capabilities, AI & robotics (including
autonomous military systems), quantum, nano and hypersonic weapon technologies. Some
other military technologies which may be listed as potentially disruptive include those which
enable 5G, Internet of Things (IoT), blockchain and 3D printing.
2. Technology has always played a significant role in determining the manner in which
warfare is conducted. The effects of some technologies have been so profound that they
have resulted in what are referred to as revolutions in military affairs (RMAs). Over the last
several centuries, such RMAs have been few and far between. In this 21st Century, however,
due to the vastly accelerated pace of technology development, the so called RMAs might
occur every couple of decades, or even faster in times to come.
3. It is against the above backdrop that this three-part series attempts to examine
whether India is sufficiently geared up to leverage disruptive technologies for building up our
comprehensive military power in tune with our geopolitical aspirations. Since strategic and
doctrinal thinking is a pre-requisite for the successful leveraging of technology for warfare,
this work also attempts to take a brief look on whether our defence strategic thought is agile
enough to match up to this onslaught of technology.
4. In this first part, an attempt is first made to classify disruptive military technologies
based on their degree of impact on future warfare. Thereafter, a brief look is taken on the
global R&D status of AI & robotics and quantum technologies, as also the initiatives being
taken by the Indian Government as well as our R&D institutions in these areas.

Disruptive Military Technologies: A Classification

5. Threats emanating from some of the technologies listed above are already manifest
on the battlefield, threats from some others loom on the horizon, while threats from still others
might take a decade or more to make themselves felt on the multi-dimensional battlespace
of the 21st Century. The degree of disruption could vary widely across the spectrum of listed
technologies. Based on the expected impact of these technologies on warfighting
methodology, it may be useful to loosely classify disruptive military technologies as either
“revolutionary” of “transformative”, with the former having the potential of resulting in an RMA
(a term which is not very precisely defined in literature).
6. Revolutionary Technologies.
(a) Current ‘ICT’ RMA. Beginning with the Iraq wars and continuing to the present
juncture and beyond, information and communication technologies (ICT) are widely
believed to have resulted in the ongoing “system of systems” RMA. This RMA is based
on two operational concepts, namely, network centric warfare (NCW) and information
warfare (IW). While NCW depends on own networks (including space segment) and
applications for enhancing combat potential, IW leverages technologies which help
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achieve information dominance as well as physical effects in and through the cyber,
EW and cognitive domains. It is also important to note here that, as a result of this
current ‘ICT’ RMA, the arena of warfighting has shifted very significantly from the
physical to the information (cyber and EW) and cognitive (psychological) realms.
(b) Looming ‘AI’ RMA. With the astonishing breakthroughs being reported almost
every few months in the fields of AI & robotics, together with the already visible advent
of lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) on the battlefield, the combine of AI &
robotics technologies is widely believed to be the harbinger of the next RMA, which
will possibly manifest in full force within the next two decades.
(c) Future ‘AI-Nano-Bio’ RMA. While the impact of nano and bio technologies is
already being felt in some military systems, a future ‘AI-Nano-Bio’ RMA may be
expected when the right synergies are achieved with further advances in AI, robotics,
nano and bio technologies, in an estimated time-frame of three to four decades.
7. Transformative Technologies. Two technologies which could have a very high
disruptive effect, but fall short of ushering in an RMA, are the quantum and hypersonic
weapon technologies. Some other transformative military technologies, which are mostly
dual-use in nature, include 5G, IoT, blockchain and 3D printing.
8. ICT technologies have been in use for several decades now, and have already been
widely analysed. As regards 5G, IoT, blockchain and 3D printing, it is felt that being dual-use
in nature these will be readily available off the shelf, including for military applications, as and
when they mature. This work, therefore, examines the following four technologies: AI &
robotics, quantum, nano and hypersonic weapons, which arguably deserve the highest
priority for defence-centric research at this juncture.

AI & Robotics
9. Military Applications. As stated above, the AI & robotics technologies together have
the potential of revolutionising warfare over the next few decades. The vast range of
applications of these technologies may broadly be categorised under four heads:
autonomous weapon systems, cyberspace operations, knowledge applications, and AI in
decision-making/ wargaming. However, the most impactful amongst these is the sub-
category of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS). Some autonomous weapon
systems, though not AI-powered, are already in use by various armies for many years now. 1
What is seizing the world’s imagination, however, is the potentially high disruptive nature of
AI-powered LAWS, which is why dominant world powers are allocating billions of dollars for
R&D in this field.
10. Global Research.
(a) US AI Initiatives and the Third Offset Strategy. In November 2014, the then
US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel announced a new Defense Innovation Initiative,
also termed as the Third Offset Strategy, which seeks to maintain the supremacy of
the US on the world stage through technological dominance, and central to this
strategy were AI and robotics related technologies.2,3 In 2018, the Department of
Defense (DoD) issued the Department of Defense Artificial Intelligence Strategy,

1 Artificial Intelligence in Military Operations: Technology, Ethics and the Indian Perspective, IDSA Comment,
Accessed 24 Jan 2020, https://idsa.in/idsacomments/artificial-intelligence-in-military-operations-
india_rspanwar_310118.
2 Chuck Hagel, The Defence Information Initiative, Memorandum Sec of Def, 15 Nov 2014.
3Peter Dombrowski, America’s Third Offset Strategy, Policy Report, S Rajaratnam School of International
Studies, Jun 2015, pp. 4.
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which describes the Department’s overall framework for AI development. 4 The Joint
Artificial Intelligence Centre (JAIC) established in June 2018 is DoD’s focal point for
execution of the DoD AI Strategy. For long-term R&D investments, the Office of the
Secretary of Defense (OSD), including the Defense Advanced Research Projects
Agency (DARPA), and the military service laboratories are in the lead. Alongside JAIC,
one of the first deployed initiatives of AI comes from Project Maven, which focuses on
computer vision aboard unmanned aerial vehicles. This program is a key example of
public-private partnerships in technology. DARPA also works closely with industry to
jointly fund research in AI for long-term breakthroughs. The annual funding for defence
and federal AI projects is expected to be of the order of a few billion dollars.
(b) China’s AI Plan: Leading AI Power by 2030. In July 2017, the State Council
of China released the “New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan.” This
policy outlines China’s strategy to build a domestic AI industry worth nearly US$150
billion over the next few years and to become the leading AI power by 2030.5 China’s
focus on AI, in addition to other technologies, is also seen to be its response to the
Third Offset Strategy of the US. As per Chinese military thought, autonomous military
systems and human-machine teaming on the battlefield of the future will graduate to
a level where the pace of combat operations will reach a “singularity”, beyond which
human decision-making will no longer be able to cope with the battle situation, and
decision-making will increasingly be taken over by AI powered intelligent machines.
The Central Military Commission (CMC) Science and Technology Commission has
launched well-funded plans focused on cutting edge technologies, with AI being
prominent amongst them. The PLA Army, Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force, and
Strategic Support Force are all pursuing their own service-specific AI projects through
their captive research institutes and partnerships. The Academy of Military Science
(AMS) and the National University of Defense Technology (NUDT) are the premier
PLA institutions which are pioneering military initiatives in AI. The main stakeholders
in AI R&D within China’s military industrial complex are the China Electronics
Technology Group Corporation (CETC), the China Aerospace Science and
Technology Corporation (CASC) and the China Aerospace Science and Industry
Corporation (CASIC).6
11. The Indian Context. In the Indian context, the current status of R&D in AI powered
military systems may be gauged from the following:-
(a) Deployment Scenarios. The Indian military landscape offers a wide variety of
operational scenarios where autonomous systems (AS), and more specifically LAWS,
may be deployed to advantage. Example scenarios/ systems in increasing degree of
complexity include anti-IED operations, surveillance drone swarms, robot sentries and
autonomous armed UAVs/ USVs. In futuristic battlefield settings, deployment of robot
soldiers in conventional and CI operations might also become a feasibility. 7
(b) National Initiatives. In Feb 2018, the Ministry of Defence (Defence Production)
set up a task force to prepare the country’s future AI roadmap for development of both

4 Summary of the 2018 Department of Defence AI Strategy, Accessed 24 Jan 2020,

https://media.defense.gov/2019/Feb/12/2002088963/-1/-1/1/SUMMARY-OF-DOD-AI-STRATEGY.PDF.
5 AI Policy – China, Future of Life Institute, Accessed 24 Jan 2020, https://futureoflife.org/ai-policy-china/.
6Elsa B Kania, Chinese Military Innovation in Artificial Intelligence, (Centre for New American Security, 07 Jun
2019), 1-17.
7 Lt Gen (Dr) R S Panwar, Artificial Intelligence in Military Operations: A Raging Debate and Wat Forward for
the Indian Armed Forces, (USI Monograph, No 2, 2018, USI, New Delhi), 38.
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defensive and offensive warfare capabilities.8 Based on its report submitted in June
2018, the Department of Defence Production issued a government order in February
2019, vide which a High Level Defence AI Council (DAIC) has been constituted under
the chairmanship of the Defence Minister, with the primary charter of providing
strategic direction for AI driven transformation in defence, facilitating R&D and
technology adaptation, and ensuring ethical use of AI technology in defence
applications, amongst others. The order also institutes a Defence AI Project Agency
(DAIPA) with Secretary (Defence Production) as the Chairman, which is tasked with
implementing the government order.9
(c) Armed Forces Perspective. Even as the prospect of an AI driven RMA looms
on the horizon, our Defence Forces at this juncture are not fully seized of the
imperative for developing critical AI applications and systems. Had this not been the
case, by now concept papers and doctrinal literature on how AI is expected to change
the flavour of future warfare, should have emerged. The Technology Perspective and
capability Roadmap (TPCR) 2018, which is prepared by HQ Integrated Defence
Services (IDS) and is meant to make a 15-year technology projection for the Armed
Forces, does not list out a single project related to AI & robotics.10 The fact that the
task force for working out the roadmap for development of AI based military systems
was neither initiated nor even steered by the Armed Forces itself speaks volumes
about their perspective on the issue. Based on the directions of the DAIPA, some
projects areas have now been identified. Clearly, if the power of AI & robotics
technologies are to be harnessed for military applications, it is the Services which need
to act as the fulcrum for all R&D in this vital field.
(d) DRDO Work. DRDO’s main facility working in this area is the Centre for Artificial
Intelligence & Robotics (CAIR), whose vision, mission and objectives all refer to
development of intelligent systems/ AI/ robotics technologies. CAIR has made limited
headway in making some prototype systems, such as “Muntra” UGV, “Daksh” remotely
operated vehicle, wall climbing and flapping wing robots, etc. However, if India is to
keep pace with progress in the international arena, these efforts are grossly
insufficient.11,12,13
12. The above status indicates that the importance of pursuing R&D activity in AI
technologies for military applications has only now being realized by the Government and the
Armed Forces. Having already lost precious time on this front, and given our poor record in
the development of cutting edge technologies, nothing less than a transformative effort by all
stake-holders, and especially by the Armed Forces, will suffice at this juncture.

8Dr V Kamakoti et al, The AI Task Force Report, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India,
New Delhi, Mar 2018, pp. 46-50.
9 Implementation of the recommendations of the multi-stakeholder Task Force constituted by the Ministry of
Defence for 'Strategic implementation of Artificial Intelligence for National Security and Defence', Department
of Defence Production Order, GOI, Accessed 24 Jan 2020, https://ddpmod.gov.in/sites/default/files/AI.pdf.
10
Technology Perspective and capability Roadmap (TPCR) 2018, Department of Defence Production Order,
GOI, Accessed 24 Jan 2020, https://mod.gov.in/sites/default/files/tpcr.pdf.
11 Robotics Products, (Combat Vehicles R&D Establishment, DRDO Website, Accessed 19 Jun 2018,
http://www.drdo.gov.in/drdo/labs/CVRDE/English/index.jsp?pg=Products.jsp), 3.
12 Robotics Products, (R&D Establishment (Engg), DRDO Website, Accessed 19 Jun 2018,
https://www.drdo.gov.in/drdo/labs1/RDE(E)/English/indexnew.jsp?pg=products.jsp).
13
Products: Technologies Developed, (Centre for AI & Robotics, Accessed 19 Jun 2018, DRDO
Website,https://www.drdo.gov.in/drdo/labs1/CAIR/English/indexnew.jsp?pg=products.jsp).
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Quantum Technology
13. Military Applications. The more significant military applications of quantum
technology are in the areas of communications and sensing, as under:-14
(a) Quantum Cryptography. Quantum cryptography (designing of encryption
schemes) uses the “spooky” phenomenon of quantum entanglement to facilitate the
secure sharing of one-time pads (OTPs), which are essentially a set of cryptographic
keys considered as having the highest degree of crack-resistivity. The phenomenon
of quantum entanglement renders any man-in-the-middle attack infeasible, thus
rendering the sharing of keys unhackable.
(b) Quantum Computing and Cryptanalysis. In the related area of cryptanalysis,
quantum computing, by using the superposition characteristic of quantum bits or
“qubits” in conjunction with “Shor’s Algorithm”, enables the cracking of a large number
of popular encryption algorithms which are based on prime numbers. One of the
milestones often talked about in the context of progress in quantum computing is the
race for achieving “quantum supremacy,” which is said to be achieved when a
quantum computer performs any calculation that, for all practical purposes, a classical
computer cannot. It is estimated that, in order to attain this milestone, a 100 qubit
quantum computer would be needed15. As on date, experimental quantum computers
of 70 qubits have been demonstrated, and performance breakthroughs are being
reported at frequent intervals.
(c) Quantum Sensing. In concept quantum sensing, of which quantum radar is a
prime example, would use quantum entanglement to achieve enhanced detection
capabilities, which would be sophisticated enough to compromise current state-of-the-
art stealth technologies.
14. Global Research.
(a) United States. In December 2018, President Trump signed the National
Quantum Initiative (NQI) Act.16 The law authorizes $1.2 billion to be invested in
quantum information science over five years. NQI funding will go to the National
Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), National Science Foundation (NSF)
Multidisciplinary Centres for Quantum Research & Education, Department of Energy
Research and National Quantum Information Science Research Centres. Among the
armed forces, the US Army Research Office funds extensive research in quantum
computing, while the US Air Force sees it as transformative technology for information
and space warfare. Private-sector companies such as Google, IBM, Intel and
Microsoft, have been conducting quantum research for almost a decade. 17 While
China appears to have got the lead in quantum communications for now, the US is
possibly ahead in the field of quantum computing. Google recently achieved quantum

14 Elsa B. Kania & John K. Costello, Quantum Hegemony? China’s Ambitions and the Challenge to U.S.
Innovation Leadership, (Centre for New American Security, Technology and National Security), Sep 2018
15Graham Carlow, Quantum Supremacy Is Coming: Here’s What You Should Know, Quanta Magazine,
Accessed 30 Nov 2019, https://www.quantamagazine.org/quantum-supremacy-is-coming-heres-what-you-
should-know-20190718/, 18 Jul 2019.
16National Quantum Initiative Act - H.R.6227 / S.3143, American Institute of Physics Website, Accessed 24 Jan
2020, https://www.aip.org/fyi/federal-science-bill-tracker/115th/national-quantum-initiative-act.
17Quantum Computing and Defence, The Military Balance 2019, Chapter I Part III, International Institute for
Strategic Studies, Accessed 24 Jan 2020, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-
balance-2019/ quantum-computing-and-defence.
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supremacy by solving a problem in 200 seconds that would take a classical computer
10,000 years to solve.18
(b) China. For several years now China is vigorously pursuing research and
development in quantum information science as a national priority. This research is
being pioneered and led by Pan Jianwei, who is known as the father of quantum
science and technology in China. The Snowden leaks, which signalled to China that
there were glaring disparities in its cyber capabilities as compared to the United States,
was one of the triggers which spurred China into considering quantum information
science as having strategic importance. Its 13th Five-Year Plan’s (2016-2020)
National Science and Technology Innovation Plan strengthens the focus in this area.
The National Key R&D Plan accords similar priority to quantum technology. There is
a view in China that quantum disruptive technologies have the potential of undermining
the technological dominance of the US in information-age warfare.19 As per available
information, Chinese state-owned defense firms are involved in conducting R&D in
this area include the China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC), which
has close ties to the PLA, the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation
(CASIC) and the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC).
China’s cutting edge expertise in quantum communications was amply demonstrated
when it launched Micius, the world’s first quantum satellite, as part of Project Quantum
Experiments at Space Scale (QUESS). By 2030, China plans to establish a network
of quantum satellites for secure military communications in support of enhanced
command & control as well as long-range precision strike capabilities.20
15. The Indian Context. India is at least a decade behind countries at the forefront of
research in quantum technologies, with China and US in the lead. An insight into the status
of R&D in India in the field of quantum technologies can be obtained from the following:-
(a) The QuST Scheme. In 2017, the Department of Science and Technology
(DST) launched a mission-mode scheme called “Quantum Science and Technology
(QuST)” for the development and demonstration of quantum computers, quantum
communication and cryptography, besides demonstration of quantum teleportation.
QuST falls under the Interdisciplinary Cyber Physical Systems (ICPS) division of the
DST.21 The first phase of QuST, for which Rs 80 crore is stated to have been allocated,
is focused on building infrastructure and acquiring human resources, and would see
researchers develop basic physical and computation structures such as logic gates,
light sources, sensors, imaging devices, clocks, and more, all in quantum states. The
second phase would see an effort to match international standards.22
(b) The QUEST Project. One mega project under this scheme called “Quantum
Experiments Using Satellite Technology (QUEST)”, has been launched as a joint

18Paul Smith-Goodson, Quantum USA Vs. Quantum China: The World's Most Important Technology Race,
Forbes Website, 10 Oct 2019, Accessed 24 Jan 2020,https://www.forbes.com/sites/moorinsights/ 2019/10/10/
quantum-usa-vs-quantum-china-the-worlds-most-important-technology-race/#4656014172de.
19Elsa Kania and John Costello, Quantum Leap (Part 1): China’s Advances in Quantum Information Science,
(China Brief, The Jamestown Foundation, Volume 16, Issue 18, 05 Dec 2016), 13.
20Elsa Kania and John Costello, Quantum Leap (Part 2): China’s Advances in Quantum Information Science,
(China Brief, The Jamestown Foundation, Volume 16, Issue 19, 21 Dec 2016), 25-26.
21 Interdisciplinary Cyber Physical Systems (ICPS) Division Detailed Call For Proposals (CFP) on Quantum
Information Science and Technology (QuST) Programme, (Department of Science and Technology, Accessed
20 Dec 2019, https://dst.gov.in/sites/default/files/QuST%20-%20CFP1.pdf), 1.
22Sandhya Ramesh, India sets off on pursuit of quantum computers, the ‘holy grail’ of modern tech, (The Print
Blog, 10 Jan 2019, Accessed 20 Dec 2019, https://theprint.in/science/india-sets-off-on-pursuit-of-quantum-
computers-the-holy-grail-of-modern-tech/175870/).
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collaboration between Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and the Raman
Research Institute (RRI), Bangalore. One of the first major experiments under QUEST
would be to establish a secure Quantum Key Distribution link between India and
Canada as a collaborative effort with the Quantum Photonics Lab at Ontario’s
University of Waterloo.23
(c) Research Institutes. The institutes involved in quantum research in India
include Harish Chandra Research Institute Allahabad, IIT Bombay, IIT Madras, Indian
Institute of Science Education & Research (IISER) Mohali, Tata Institute of
Fundamental Research (TIFR) Mumbai, Indian Institute of Science (IISc) Bengaluru,
amongst others.24
(d) Armed Forces. As of now, the Armed Forces do not appear to be at all seized
of the importance of sponsoring quantum research into military applications, with the
current level of interest being limited to presentation of papers in sundry conferences.
16. Although DST has termed QuST as a mission-mode project bound by deliverables,
targets and deadlines, it is evident that much more needs to be done. The latest update on
the DST website (accessed on 26 Apr 2020), is the initial call for proposal for QuST dated 22
Nov 2017, which is a clear indicator, amongst many others, that R&D in quantum
technologies is not being given the priority it deserves by either the Indian Government or the
Armed Forces.

Conclusion
17. In this first part, a range of disruptive military technologies have been short-listed and
categorized based on their expected impact on future warfare. The classification brings out
that some of these technologies might result in RMAs, while others are expected to bring
about transformative changes in warfare. A brief overview of the status of R&D in AI &
robotics and quantum technologies has also been given out. It is observed that in both these
areas, while some initiatives have been taken by the Indian Government, much more needs
to be done.
18. The next part will review the status of global research and India’s approach towards
the development of nano and hypersonic weapon technologies.

23Quantum technology gets a big boost in India, (Business Standard Blog, 09 May 2018, Accessed 20 Dec
2019, https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/quantum-technology-gets-a-big-boost-in-india-
118050900288_1.html).
24K S Jayaraman, Quantum information revolution – is India ready?, (Nature India blog, Accessed 20 Dec 2019,
https://www.natureasia.com/en/nindia/article/10.1038/nindia.2018.67).