Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Pronosticos Por Promedios
Pronosticos Por Promedios
715
710
705
700
695
690
710
705
700
695
690
685
680
675
670
665
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
N= 4
MES VENTAS PMS PMD (D-P) Ec (D-P)
1 690
2 691
3 692
4 692
5 693 691.25
6 693 692
7 696 692.5
8 698 693.5 692.3125 5.6875 32.347656
9 700 695 693.25 6.75 45.5625
10 708 696.75 694.4375 13.5625 183.94141
11 706 700.5 696.4375 9.5625 91.441406
12 706 703 698.8125 7.1875 51.660156
13 708 705 701.3125 6.6875 44.722656
14 710 707 703.875 6.125 37.515625
15 708 707.5 705.625 2.375 5.640625
16 708 708 706.875 1.125 1.265625
17 709 708.5 707.75 1.25 1.5625
18 709 708.75 708.1875 0.8125 0.6601563
19 710 708.5 708.4375 1.5625 2.4414063
20 709 709 708.6875 0.3125 0.0976563
21 710 709.25 708.875 1.125 1.265625
22 710 709.5 709.0625 0.9375 0.8789063
23 711 709.75 709.375 1.625 2.640625
24 709 710 709.625 -0.625 0.390625
25 702 710 709.8125 -7.8125 61.035156
26 700 708 709.4375 -9.4375 89.066406
27 702 705.5 708.375 -6.375 40.640625
28 702 703.25 706.6875 -4.6875 21.972656
29 701 701.5 704.5625 -3.5625 12.691406
30 694 701.25 702.875 -8.875 78.765625
31 690 699.75 701.4375 -11.4375 130.81641
32 686 696.75 699.8125 -13.8125 190.78516
33 682 692.75 697.625 -15.625 244.14063
688 694.3125 52.844201
P
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
300
PRONOSTICOS PMD
250
200
150
200
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
136.25
145.75
152.25
158 148.0625 23.9375 573.003906
161.75 154.4375 8.5625 73.3164063
164 159 4 16
165 162.1875 1.8125 3.28515625
165.5 164.0625 26.9375 725.628906
170.25 166.1875 34.8125 1211.91016
179.75 170.125 48.875 2388.76563
193.75 177.3125 29.6875 881.347656
204.5 187.0625 17.9375 321.753906
208 196.5 13.5 182.25
210.25 204.125 2.875 8.265625
207.25 207.5 17.5 306.25
211.75 209.3125 13.6875 187.347656
216.25 211.375 45.625 2081.64063
228 215.8125 16.1875 262.035156
234.25 222.5625 17.4375 304.066406
238 229.125 11.875 141.015625
242.5 235.6875 568.698989
6 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Column R
N=2
AJUSTE xT AJUSTE E
MES VENTAS PMS PMD
a=2(PMS)-PMD b=(2/n-1)(PMS-PMD)
1 116
2 133
3 139 124.5
4 157 136 130.25 141.75 11.5
5 154 148 142 154 12
6 159 155.5 151.75 159.25 7.5
7 162 156.5 156 157 1
8 172 160.5 158.5 162.5 4
9 163 167 163.75 170.25 6.5
10 163 167.5 167.25 167.75 0.5
11 164 163 165.25 160.75 -4.5
12 191 163.5 163.25 163.75 0.5
13 201 177.5 170.5 184.5 14
14 219 196 186.75 205.25 18.5
15 207 210 203 217 14
16 205 213 211.5 214.5 3
17 210 206 209.5 202.5 -7
18 207 207.5 206.75 208.25 1.5
19 225 208.5 208 209 1
20 223 216 212.25 219.75 7.5
21 257 224 220 228 8
22 232 240 232 248 16
23 240 244.5 242.25 246.75 4.5
24 241 236 240.25 231.75 -8.5
25 240.5 238.25 242.75 4.5
N=3
PMD
ECM MES VENTAS PMS
a+b
1 116
2 133
3 139
153.25 14.0625 4 157 129.333333333
166 144 5 154 143
166.75 60.0625 6 159 150
158 16 7 162 156.666666667
166.5 30.25 8 172 158.333333333
176.75 189.0625 9 163 164.333333333
168.25 27.5625 10 163 165.666666667
156.25 60.0625 11 164 166
164.25 715.5625 12 191 163.333333333
198.5 6.25 13 201 172.666666667
223.75 22.5625 14 219 185.333333333
231 576 15 207 203.666666667
217.5 156.25 16 205 209
195.5 210.25 17 210 210.333333333
209.75 7.5625 18 207 207.333333333
210 225 19 225 207.333333333
227.25 18.0625 20 223 214
236 441 21 257 218.333333333
264 1024 22 232 235
251.25 126.5625 23 240 237.333333333
223.25 315.0625 24 241 243
247.25 208.81845238 237.666666667
C
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
VENTAS
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
VENTAS
AJUSTE xT AJUSTE E PMD
PMD ECM
a=2(PMS)-PMD b=(2/n-1)(PMS-PMD) a+b
Comparativa
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
P P
MES VENTAS Ec (D-P) Ec (D-P) P (alfa=0.6)
(alfa=0.2) (alfa=0.3)
1 42.00 42.00 0.00 42.00 0.00 42.00
2 69.00 42.00 27.00 42.00 27.00 42.00
3 100.00 47.40 52.60 50.10 49.90 58.20
4 115.00 57.92 57.08 65.07 49.93 83.28
5 132.00 69.34 62.66 80.05 51.95 102.31
6 141.00 81.87 59.13 95.63 45.37 120.12
7 154.00 93.70 60.30 109.24 44.76 132.65
8 171.00 105.76 65.24 122.67 48.33 145.46
9 180.00 118.80 61.20 137.17 42.83 160.78
10 204.00 131.04 72.96 150.02 53.98 172.31
11 228.00 145.64 82.36 166.21 61.79 191.33
12 247.00 162.11 84.89 184.75 62.25 213.33
13 291.00 179.09 111.91 203.42 87.58 233.53
14 337.00 201.47 135.53 229.70 107.30 268.01
15 391.00 228.58 162.42 261.89 129.11 309.41
ECM
comparativo
0.00
600.00
2500.00
900.00 500.00
169.00
400.00
585.64
5523.46 300.00
410.95
200.00
3.58
430.83 100.00
334.98
0.00
1085.84 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ec (D-P)
comparativo
0.00 450.00
27.00 400.00
41.80 350.00
31.72 300.00
29.69
250.00
20.88
200.00
21.35
150.00
25.54
100.00
19.22
50.00
31.69
0.00
36.67 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
33.67
VENTAS P (alfa=0.2) P (alfa=0.3) P (alfa=0.6)
57.47
68.99
81.59
MES VENTAS S´ t S´´ t a b S t+m alfa=0.2
Enero 460.00 460.00 460.00
Febrero 510.00 470.00 462.00 478.00 2.00
Marzo 520.00 480.00 465.60 494.40 3.60 480.00
Abril 495.00 483.00 469.08 496.92 3.48 498.00
Mayo 476.00 481.60 471.58 491.62 2.50 500.40
Junio 560.00 497.28 476.72 517.84 5.14 494.12
Julio 510.00 499.82 481.34 518.30 4.62 522.98
Agosto 520.00 503.86 485.85 521.87 4.50 522.92
Septiembre 540.00 511.09 490.89 531.28 5.05 526.38
Octubre 550.00 518.87 496.49 541.25 5.60 536.33
Noviembre 546.85
VENTAS S t+m a
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Comparativo
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
97
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Column K
Factor estacional indice estacional Datos desestacionalizados linea de tendencia Pronostico
0.9539 2402.8367 2314.9270 2208.14533947
1.0274 2384.7271 2335.2540 2399.17279026
1.00 1.0109 2337.5390 2355.5810 2381.23848731
1.06 1.0066 2460.7729 2375.9080 2391.57544075
0.89 0.9539 2162.7627 2396.2350 2285.70280943
1.03 1.0274 2295.1781 2416.5620 2482.70629078
1.01 1.0109 2291.0454 2436.8890 2463.43211127
1.01 1.0066 2350.5001 2457.2160 2473.41960977
0.95 0.9539 2377.6761 2477.5430 2363.26027939
1.04 1.0274 2465.5158 2497.8700 2566.23979131
0.98 1.0109 2452.2891 2518.1970 2545.62573523
1.01 1.0066 2607.8034 2538.5240 2555.2637788
0.99 0.9539 2742.5047 2558.8510 2440.81774935
1.04 1.0274 2718.5889 2579.1780 2649.77329183
0.98 1.0109 2627.3820 2599.5050 2627.81935919
1.01 1.0066 2728.0107 2619.8320 2637.10794782
0.97 0.9539 2770.8104 2640.1590 2518.37521931
1.03 1.0274 2736.1093 2660.4860 2733.30679235
0.98 1.0109 2650.1342 2680.8130 2710.01298316
1.00 1.0066 2718.0762 2701.1400 2718.95211685
0.97 0.9539 2822.1799 2721.4670 2595.93268927
1.02 1.0274 2794.5108 2741.7940 2816.84029288
1.04 1.0109 2868.7529 2762.1210 2792.20660712
1.02 1.0066 2792.5849 2782.4480 2800.79628587
0.91 0.9539 2617.7501 2802.7750 2673.49015923
1.02 1.0274 2717.6155 2823.1020 2900.3737934
1.03 1.0109 2807.4210 2843.4290 2874.40023108
0.98 1.0066 2761.7880 2863.7560 2882.64045489
0.95 0.9539 2912.3387 2884.0830 2751.04762919
1.03 1.0274 2984.3156 2904.4100 2983.90729392
1.07 1.0109 3178.3804 2924.7370 2956.59385504
0.97 1.0066 2908.8184 2945.0640 2964.48462392
0.97 0.9539 3012.9811 2965.3910 2828.60509915
1.02 1.0274 2920.0740 2985.7180 3067.44079444
0.99 1.0109 2881.6129 3006.0450 3038.787479
0.99 1.0066 2896.8970 3026.3720 3046.32879294
0.98 0.9539 3050.7220 3046.6990 2906.16256911
1.01 1.0274 2970.6886 3067.0260 3150.97429497
1.0109 3082.4256 3087.3530 3120.98110297
1.0066 3188.9710 3107.6800 3128.17296196
0.9539 3128.0070 2983.72003907
1.0274 3148.3340 3234.50779549
1.0109 3168.6610 3203.17472693
1.0066 3188.9880 3210.01713099
Chart Title
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
2000.0000
1500.0000
1000.0000
500.0000
0.0000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
1 2 3 4
0.95 1.03 1.01 1.01
31 33 35 37 39
Observaciones Estación Demanda PMS PM centrado
Demanda
6000
5000
4000
2000
1000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Factor estacional indice estacional Datos desestacionalizados linea de tendencia Pronostico
Datos desestacionalizados
4500
4000
3500
3000 f(x) = − 1.5348346409791 x + 3230.80479926802
R² = 0.000635638558666
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
pronósticos
5000
4500
4000
3500
f(x) = 19.7272059518534 x + 2954.17002873593
3000 R² = 0.014709218433725
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
17 18 19 20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Xo
45 0.1225
45 0.1225
43 5.52250000000001
43 5.52250000000001
42 11.2225
45 0.1225
41 18.9225
42 11.2225
43 5.52250000000001
45 0.1225
48 7.02249999999999
48 7.02249999999999
49 13.3225
48 7.02249999999999
42 11.2225
51 31.9225
50 21.6225
47 2.7225
45 0.1225
45 0.1225
x 45.35 160.55
desvi 2.9068883707
N 4.2732647861
N 18.260791932
Número de Número de
Día representantes de televisores
ventas vendidos
1 1 3 Diagrama de dispersión
2 1 6 14
3 1 10
12
4 2 5
5 2 10 10
f(x) = 0.454545454545455 x + 5.4
6 2 12 R² = 0.216038714137573
8
7 3 5
8 3 10 6
9 3 10
4
10 2 8
2
0
0 2 4 6 8
Diagrama de dispersi
12000
Permisos de Tasa de
Mes
construcción interés (%)
10000
1 7860 10.2 7860
2 4940 12.6 4940 8000 f(x) = − 1449.47438678458 x + 22174.1
R² = 0.793363646574049
3 2890 13.5 2890
4 8920 9.7 8920 6000
120
455 x + 5.4
73
6 8 10 12
Diagrama de dispersión
1449.47438678458 x + 22174.124812281
93363646574049
0 11 12 13 14 15
n
n
60 70
Observaciones periodo Trimestre Demanda PMS PM centrado Factor estacional
1 1 211
2 2 326 267.75
2010
3 3 256 267.50 267.63 0.96
4 4 278 248.50 258.00 1.08
5 1 210 262.00 255.25 0.82
6 2 250 256.50 259.25 0.96
2011
7 3 310 262.50 259.50 1.19
8 4 256 289.75 276.13 0.93
9 1 234 339.75 314.75 0.74
10 2 359 500.00 419.88 0.86
2012
11 3 510 516.00 508.00 1.00
12 4 897 518.75 517.38 1.73
13 1 298 576.25 547.50 0.54
14 2 370 604.50 590.38 0.63
2013
15 3 740 607.50 606.00 1.22
16 4 1010 604.00 605.75 1.67
17 1 310 606.50 605.25 0.51
18 2 356 629.00 617.75 0.58
2014
19 3 750 630.50 629.75 1.19
20 4 1100 633.25 631.88 1.74
21 1 316 620.75 627.00 0.50
22 2 367 633.25 627.00 0.59
2015
23 3 700 635.00 634.13 1.10
24 4 1150 630.75 632.88 1.82
25 1 323 640.75 635.75 0.51
26 2 350 654.50 647.63 0.54
2016
27 3 740 673.75 664.13 1.11
28 4 1205 690.50 682.13 1.77
29 1 400 692.50 691.50 0.58
30 2 417 698.75 695.63 0.60
2017
31 3 748 703.75 701.25 1.07
32 4 1230 702.50 703.13 1.75
33 1 420 698.00 700.25 0.60
34 2 412 701.75 699.88 0.59
2018
35 3 730 704.50 703.13 1.04
36 4 1245 706.50 705.50 1.76
37 1 431 707.75 707.13 0.61
38 2 420 714.00 710.88 0.59
2019
39 3 735
40 4 1270
41 1
42 2
2020
43 3
44 4
indice estacional Datos desestacionalizados linea de tendencia Pronostico
0.54 389.12 351.71 190.71
0.66 495.02 363.26 239.23
1.10 232.96 374.80 411.87
1.58 175.65 386.35 611.47
0.54 387.28 397.89 215.75
0.66 379.61 409.43 269.64
1.10 282.10 420.98 462.62
1.58 161.75 432.52 684.55
0.54 431.54 444.07 240.79
0.66 545.13 455.61 300.05
1.10 464.10 467.15 513.36
1.58 566.75 478.70 757.63
0.54 549.57 490.24 265.83
0.66 561.83 501.79 330.46
1.10 673.39 513.33 564.10
1.58 638.15 524.87 830.72
0.54 571.70 536.42 290.87
0.66 540.57 547.96 360.87
1.10 682.49 559.51 614.85
1.58 695.02 571.05 903.80
1400
0.54 582.76 582.59 315.91
0.66 557.27 594.14 391.28 1200
1.10 636.99 605.68 665.59
1000
1.58 726.61 617.23 976.88
0.54 595.67 628.77 340.95 800 f(x) = 14.4983114446529
R² = 0.254118995128657
0.66 531.46 640.31 421.69 600
1.10 673.39 651.86 716.33
1.58 761.36 663.40 1049.96 400
0.54 737.67 674.95 365.99 200
0.66 633.20 686.49 452.10
1.10 680.67 698.03 767.08 0
1 3 5 7 9 11
1.58 777.15 709.58 1123.05
0.54 774.56 721.12 391.02
0.66 625.60 732.67 482.51
1.10 664.29 744.21 817.82
1.58 786.63 755.75 1196.13
0.54 794.84 767.30 416.06
900.00
0.66 637.75 778.84 512.92
1.10 668.84 790.39 868.56 800.00
f(x) = 11.543965324486
1.58 802.43 801.93 1269.21 700.00 R² = 0.65373057730388
0.54 813.47 441.10 600.00
0.66 825.02 543.33 500.00
1.10 836.56 919.31 400.00
1.58 848.11 1342.30
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
1 3 5 7 9 1
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
1 3 5 7 9 11
1600.00
1400.00
1200.00
1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13
1 2 3 4
0.542244464 0.658562615 1.098910615 1.582697232
Chart Title
1400
1200
1000
400
200
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
Chart Title
900.00
800.00
f(x) = 11.5439653244866 x + 340.171469398249
700.00 R² = 0.653730577303887
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
Chart Title
1600.00
1400.00
1200.00
1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43