Link between Strategic Thinking,

Strategic Planning, Strategic

Management with Futures Thinking and
Scenario Planning (FTSP)
__________
Muhammad Nazim bin Abd. Rahman
Leadership and Executive Development Cluster
INTAN Bukit Kiara

Updated 2018
Futures
Thinking
Scenario
Planning

Strategic Strategic Strategic

Planning
Thinking Management
 Futures Thinking
Futures Thinking and Scenario Planning and Scenario
Planning
Definition

Futures Thinking = the attempt to systematically explore

predictions and possibilities about the future and how
they can emerge from the present

Scenario Planning = A discipline for developing

multiple imagined futures in which decisions about
the future can be played out
[Dr. Thomas Chermack (2011), Scenario Planning Institute, Colorado State University
Link between Strategic Thinking, Strategic Strategic Thinking
Planning & Strategic Management (1)

Strategy
Strategic Strategic Strategy Strategy
Implemen
Thinking Analysis Formulation Evaluation
tation

Strategic Thinking is a thinking skill in ‘seeing’ issues, problems and opportunities in a larger
and broader perspective and being able to understand the inter-relation of all the elements
involved so that the best course of action could be formulated to achieve the desired goals
Link between Strategic Thinking, Strategic
Strategic Planning
Planning & Strategic Management (2)

Strategy
Strategic Strategic Strategy Strategy
Implement
Thinking Analysis Formulation Evaluation
ation

Strategic Planning is the combination of strategic analysis

and strategy formulation
Link between Strategic Thinking, Strategic Strategic
Management
Planning & Strategic Management (3)

Strategy
Strategic Strategic Strategy Strategy
Implement
Thinking Analysis Formulation Evaluation
ation

Strategic Management is the process of analyzing, formulating, implementing

and evaluating various strategies in order to achieve organisation’s goals
Summary of Overall View and Linkages
 Extra Notes

• Hence, we tend to use Strategic Thinking, Strategic Planning and Strategic Management when we are
trying to think of or formulate strategies to achieve goal that is one to five years in the future.

• If the goal is more than five years in the future, than probably, it is advisable that we incorporate
Futures Thinking and Scenario Planning, in the process.

• If there are too many changes in the near future, there may be a need to use Futures Thinking and
Scenario Planning even for goals that is three or four years in the future.

• The exact time period is still an ongoing debate between the experts of Futures Thinking and Scenario
Planning.
General views regarding timeframe
There are no hard-and-fast rules about the appropriate timeframe for
scenarios. Traditional scenario methods tend to look 10-15 years ahead, and
will reflect the question being examined. Where the work is focused on more
narrowly-defined trends and drivers (for example, linked to national political
situations), this may be reduced to three to five years or even less. Where
scenarios are being used to test the robustness of an existing strategy or plan,
they should look ahead at least twice as far (e.g. scenarios to test a three-year
country plan should look at least six years ahead). Scenarios considering issues
such as climate change will tend to have a longer timeframe, as will energy
scenarios, where companies and governments need to take investment
decisions decades before new facilities come onstream.
Guidance Note for Scenario Planning, published by Foresight Horizon
Scanning Centre, UK Government Office for Science 2009