® Probability assignments ‘There are afew theories of probability that assign meaning to statements like‘the probability that A occurs is 9%! In this book, we will primarily cxamine only the relative frequency theory. In essence, we will follow the ‘dea that probability is'the long-run proportion of repetitions on which an event occurs! This allows us to ‘merge’ two concepts into one. Equally likely outcomes In the theory of equally likely outcomes, probability has todo with symmetries and the indistinguishability of outcomes. Ifa given ‘experiment or tral has n possible outcomes among which there is no preference, they are equally likely. The probability of each outcome isthen 18° or. For example, ia enn sbalanced wel thee sno reason for it to lnd heads in preference to tals when tis tossed so, accordingly the probability thatthe coin lands headsis equal othe probability that it nds tal and both are 90% = so, Similar ies firth chance that when isle land wih the ide with top isthe ah hc th shons2, 3,45 or 6108 or Inthe theory fey ey outcomes, babi re between O% tnd 10 ian event consi of more han one posible outa the hance ofthe event isthe mumber of way cu ocr dvd bythe total numberof thing that coud ecu For example the chance at 4 i lands shoving even nuber ontop isthe mabe of aye it ‘oul! lind showingan even nuber (2 4016 dvd bythe tou numberof hinge that ould ect (6 nancy sowing 1,234,506) © Frequency theory Inthe frequency theory, probability isthe limit ofthe relative frequency ‘with which an event occurs in repeated trials. Relative frequencies are Deen ae always between 0% and 100%, According to the frequency theory of ia probability the probability that A occurs isp’ means that if you repeat cope the experiment over and ove gin independently and under exentally identical conditions the percentage ofthe time that A occurs wll converge top. Fr example tsa thatthe chance a coin lands heads is Som means that if you as the coin over and over gan, independently, therato ofthe numberof mes the con lands heads tothe otal number coftoses approaches ining vale of 5%, asthe number of tosses grove, Becase the rato of heads to tose is alvays between O% and 100%, when the probability exist mast be between 0% and 100%. Using Venn diagrams and the equal Iikely’ concept, we can ay that the probeblty ofan event isthe mumber of ements in an event A divided by the total numberof elements in the sample space $. This s equivalent to @ mA) ssyng: PLA) = 2D sehere nA pesents the number of outcomesin A and (5) represents the total number of outcomes. Soin Example 5, the probability of observing exactly two heads i: P(2 heads) = 3Nomatterhow litle achance you thnkan event has, there ‘Sno sch thing as negative probability. No matterhow large a chance you thnkan event has. theres no such thing s aprobabiity lagerthan 1 You hive tobe careful with ‘these rules. By the'something has to happertrue the total of the probabiltis fall possible ‘urcomes must be 1. hi so because they ae disjoint, and ther sum covers alle elements ofthe sample space, ‘Suppase someone repos the folowing probabiiis for students in yourhigh schoo! (4,yas) the probably that ‘grade 1,2,30r4student is ‘chosen at random from the high schools 024,024,025 and 019 respectively, with no ther possiblities you should know immediately that there is something wrong. These probabilities add up 10092 ‘Simi, someone claims that these probabiities e024, (028,025,026 respectively, there ao something wrong. These probabilities add up to 1.03, whichis more than 1 Probability rules Regardless of which theory we subscribe to, the probability rules apply. Rule 1 Any probability is a number between 0 and 1, ie. the probability P(A) of any event A satisfies 0 = P(A) = 1. If the probability of any event is 0, the event never occurs. Likewise, i the probability is 1 it ahways occurs. In rolling a standard di, it is impossible to get the number 9, so P(9) = 0. Also, the probability of observing ny integer between 1 and 6, inclusive, is 1 Rule 2 All possible outcomes together must have a probability of 1, ie. the probability of the sample space Sis 1: P(S) = 1. Informally, this is sometimes called the ‘something has to happen rule’ Rule 3 IF two events have no outcomes in common, the probability that one or the other occurs is the sum of their individual probabilities. Two events that have no outcomes in common, and hence can never occur together, are called disjoint events or mutually exclusive events. P(A or B) = P(A) + PLB) This is the addi mn rule for mutually exclusive events, For example, in tossing three coins, the events of getting exactly two heads ‘or exactly two tails are disjoint, and hence the probability of getting exactly 3 3 a two heads or two tails is + 3 a8 @ GD Additionally, we can always add the probabilities of outcomes because they are always disjoint. A trial cannot come out in two different ways at the same time. This will give you a way to check whether the probabilities you assigned are legitimate. Rule 4 Suppose that the probability that you receive a 7 on your IB exam is 0.2, then the probability of not receiving a 7 on the exam is 0.8, The event that contains the outcomes notin A is called the complement of A,and is denoted by A’. P(A’) = 1 ~ P(A)yor P(A) = 1 ~ P(A’),