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  • Seminar 2 (ASE-Masterat PEE 2020)

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    Valentin
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    The document presents data on quarterly values from 2015 to 2019 and uses the 3-period moving average method to analyze trends and make forecasts. It calculates moving averages for the original data (MM-3a) and seasonally adjusted data (MM-3g), determining seasonal indices and coefficients. Forecasts for 2020 are generated, predicting continued growth in the quarterly values based on historical trends.

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    The document presents data on quarterly values from 2015 to 2019 and uses the 3-period moving average method to analyze trends and make forecasts. It calculates moving averages for the original data (MM-3a) and seasonally adjusted data (MM-3g), determining seasonal indices and coefficients. Forecasts for 2020 are generated, predicting continued growth in the quarterly values based on historical trends.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    7 views3 pages

    Seminar 2 (ASE-Masterat PEE 2020)

    Uploaded by

    Valentin
    The document presents data on quarterly values from 2015 to 2019 and uses the 3-period moving average method to analyze trends and make forecasts. It calculates moving averages for the original data (MM-3a) and seasonally adjusted data (MM-3g), determining seasonal indices and coefficients. Forecasts for 2020 are generated, predicting continued growth in the quarterly values based on historical trends.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 3

    Metoda mediilor mobile de ordinul

    an Tim. 1 Trim. 2 Trim. 3 Trim. 4 t y mm3a mm3a(2)

    2015 900 1100 1400 1200 1 2015:T1 900


    2016 950 1150 1500 1300 2 2015:T2 1100 1133.33
    2017 1025 1200 1550 1350 3 2015:T3 1400 1233.33 1183.33
    2018 1150 1300 1600 1450 4 2015:T4 1200 1183.33 1172.22
    2019 1250 1450 1800 1500 5 2016:T1 950 1100.00 1161.11
    6 2016:T2 1150 1200.00 1205.56
    Tendinta 7 2016:T3 1500 1316.67 1263.89
    MM-3a Tim. 1 Trim. 2 Trim. 3 Trim. 4 8 2016:T4 1300 1275.00 1255.56
    2015 1183.33 1172.22 9 2017:T1 1025 1175.00 1236.11
    2016 1161.11 1205.56 1263.89 1255.56 10 2017:T2 1200 1258.33 1266.67
    2017 1236.11 1266.67 1325.00 1327.78 11 2017:T3 1550 1366.67 1325.00
    2018 1322.22 1355.56 1411.11 1422.22 12 2017:T4 1350 1350.00 1327.78
    2019 1438.89 1488.89 13 2018:T1 1150 1266.67 1322.22
    14 2018:T2 1300 1350.00 1355.56
    Calculul coeficientilor de sezonalitate 15 2018:T3 1600 1450.00 1411.11
    MM-3a Tim. 1 Trim. 2 Trim. 3 Trim. 4 16 2018:T4 1450 1433.33 1422.22
    2015 216.67 27.78 17 2019:T1 1250 1383.33 1438.89
    2016 -211.11 -55.56 236.11 44.44 18 2019:T2 1450 1500.00 1488.89
    2017 -211.11 -66.67 225.00 22.22 19 2019:T3 1800 1583.33 1509.26
    2018 -172.22 -55.56 188.89 27.78 20 2019:T4 1500 1529.63
    2019 -188.89 -38.89 21 2020:T1 1550.00
    media -195.83 -54.17 216.67 30.56 22 2020:T2 1570.37
    sj -195.14 -53.47 217.36 31.25 23 2020:T3 1590.74
    24 2020:T4 1611.11
    Tendinta Prognoza tendintei bMM-3a
    MM-3g Tim. 1 Trim. 2 Trim. 3 Trim. 4 20.37
    2015 1169.35 1162.14
    2016 1146.73 1190.89 1248.02 1244.62 6322.22
    2017 1222.38 1253.76 1312.01 1320.34 1580.56
    2018 1313.24 1346.61 1401.95 1416.69
    2019 1429.11 1477.57

    Calculul coeficientilor de sezonalitate


    MM-4 Tim. 1 Trim. 2 Trim. 3 Trim. 4
    2015 1.19725 1.03257
    2016 0.82844 0.96566 1.20190 1.04449
    2017 0.83853 0.95712 1.18139 1.02246
    2018 0.87570 0.96539 1.14127 1.02351
    2019 0.87467 0.98134
    media 0.85407 0.96734 1.18021 1.03072 1.005017
    sj 0.85300 0.96613 1.17873 1.02943 1
    ediilor mobile de ordinul M
    3 etoda mediilor mobile de ordinul 3 cazul multiplicativ
    Prognoza mm3g mm3g(2) Prognoza
    2000
    (mm3a) (mm3g)

    1114.95 1800
    1227.16 1169.35
    1168.63 1162.14
    11
    1094.46 1146.73 1600 1550
    7
    1178.97 1190.89 1500
    1308.91 1248.02 3
    1400 12
    1259.66 1244.62
    1400 8 1350 1
    1169.36 1222.38 1300 1
    1239.97 1253.76 4 10
    1359.20 1312.01 1200 6 1200 13
    1200 2 1150 1150
    1340.05 1320.34 1100
    1263.74 1313.24 9
    1025
    1337.38 1346.61 5
    1000 950
    1444.81 1401.95
    1426.04 1416.69 1
    900
    1380.01 1429.11
    800
    1483.14 1477.57 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
    1576.08 1500.79
    1500 1524.39 1500 2000

    1354.86 1548.35 1320.75


    1516.90 1572.69 1519.42
    1808.10 1597.41 1882.91 1800
    1642.36 1622.52 1670.27
    bMM-3g
    11
    1.01572 1600 7 1550
    1500
    6322.22 3
    1400 12
    1580.56 1585.00 1585.00 1400 8 1350 14
    1300 1300
    4 10
    1200 6 1200 13
    1200 2 1150 1150
    1100
    9
    1025
    5
    1000 950
    1
    900

    800
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
    19 22
    1800 1808.10

    23
    15 1642.36
    11 1600
    1550 20 21
    1516.90
    1500
    16 18 19
    1450 1450 1500.00
    12
    1350 14
    1300 17
    10 1250
    1200 13
    1150

    025

    9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

    23
    1882.91319080547
    19
    1800

    24
    1670.27198751207
    15
    11 1600
    1550 20 22
    1519.41796953949
    1500
    16 18
    1450 1450
    12
    1350 14 21
    1300 1320.74700036383
    17
    10 1250
    1200 13
    1150

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

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